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Subject: RGFHL Year 19 Draft Recap & Rationales
Posted by: The Dienasty
- [22712623] Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 22:58
Bringing back on oldie but goodie. This recap and rationales thread is a chance to reflect on decisions from seasons past, and predict the outcome of the season at hand. Who scooped your pick? Who's gonna win it all? Share your thoughts here.
Your best value pick(s):
Your riskiest pick(s):
Thoughts on your own team:
Sleeper pick on your team:
Sleeper pick of the draft:
Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted:
Name that player:
Thoughts on other teams:
Other noteworthy items:
What was he thinking! Worst manager miscue of the draft (let's have some fun with this one):
Predict the top 3 mgrs:
First:
Second:
Third:
Stanley Cup Winner: |
| 1 | The Dienasty
ID: 22712623
Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 00:31
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Your best value pick(s):
16.05 Raanta, Antti (CAR) - I rarely would classify a late round back-up goalie pick as a value pick, but i was quite happy to find Raanta here to pair with Frederick Andersen. I had all but conceded this pick to someone else who would look to shore up their G depth earlier. Andersen doesn't have a glittering track record of health and going all in on Carolina goaltending ensures some stability over my G stats. Kochetkov is a looming threat, fingers crossed the two vets can gold him off for just one more year.
Your riskiest pick(s):
3.07 McAvoy, Charlie (BOS) - My biggest reach, maybe 1-2 rounds earlier than needed. I had Tuch, Kempe and Bratt shortlisted here and they got promptly drafted shortly after, so it will be interesting how it plays out for value. But i love McAvoy's mix of category coverage. Boston may take a step back as a team from the previous season, but McAvoy on an island is a stud. He was also key on my RGFHL 2021-22 Championship team and i always tend to go back to well when the opportunities there.
Thoughts on your own team:
Overall quite pleased. Aside from some dicey mid-rounds, im pleased with my keepers, and the final rounds of my draft, were i was able to pick up targets like Bertuzzi, Connor Brown, Tippett and Byram. Upside with low risk. If any two of these four guys pan out, i should be able to stay competitive with the right roster management.
Sleeper pick on your team:
17.07 Marchenko, Kirill (CBJ) - I didn't have him on my draft board the last 24 hours and ended up pleased to bring him on board. Great deployment in CBJ (at least through preseason) and given the overall age of my roster, exciting to have a more "raw" prospect to watch grow. If thing don't pan out and he falls down the line up, he'll be an easy cut too
Sleeper pick of the draft:
Ira - 16.03 Matheson, Michael (MON) - Was hoping he would keep slipping to the final round, but Ira with the keen eye here. Top 100 upside.
flithyrich - 14.07 Hall, Taylor (CHI) - Shotgun with the hottest rookie in ages, plently of bounceback upside with a guy who's a proven killer when all things are clicking
Taxman - 15.01 Klingberg, John (TOR) - Just crazy value here on a guy with a high floor.
Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted:
Mailedfoot
Name that player:
8.04 Buchnevich, Pavel (STL) - Total snipe. 1 pick before me and i already had Buchnevich's name written on my draft card. Sent me into the tank for i don't know how many hours looking for plan B.
Thoughts on other teams:
I think the early drafting teams got some fantastic building pieces. In part because of Connor Bedard, and also one fewer manager this year means the player pool is that much deeper. Bedard, Marner and Georgiev are championship pieces, and the next 10 picks after that were huge difference makers.
Other noteworthy items:
What was he thinking! Worst manager miscue of the draft (let's have some fun with this one):
Pointing the finger at myself with 10.05 Grubauer, Philipp (SEA) and 11.07 Zuccarello, Mats (MIN). Two picks in the meat of the draft where i just couldn't figure out which direction to go. Zucc and Grubby could be total busts, with capped upside.
Predict the top 3 mgrs:
First: Rick Custer - Just can't bet against McDavid. The ace up the sleeve. Back that up with a solid draft and it may be over before it even starts
Second: Little M123 - Outside of the McDavid factor, i tend to then look at goaltending and evaluate from there. Oettenger and Geogiev are bulletproof while the rest of the category coverage is sound. Podium finish is near certainty
Third: Cobwebs - the Ottawa stack is aggressive and smart. They will be a fun team and the offense will be top 5 in the league. If they can keep the puck out of their net and Minnesota stays in the playoff race all season long, a podium finish is well within reach.
Stanley Cup Winner:
I hate to say it but Edmonton's time has arrived (Oiler hater here). Oilers to defeat Carolina in the Cup final.
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| 2 | Cobwebs
ID: 29953810
Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 11:59
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Your best value pick(s):
13.10 Norris, Josh (OTT) – Great value if he can come back and stay healthy on a improved team that are playoff bound this season especially with him on the roster.
9.10 Fleury, Marc-Andre (MIN) – Since I already had picked Gustavsson who is the 1A keeper I also needed Fleury to complete my plan on having goalies on good teams with hopefully good stats.
Your riskiest pick(s):
7.10 Kuzmenko, Andrei (VAN) – Most experts see him as a bust and expect a regression, but he was a good addition on my team last season and with a full first season under his belt and a larger role on the team, I hope that he will improve his stats.
Thoughts on your own team:
I’m happy with my team. I always seem to pick players that I’ve owned before and this season is no different except that this year a third of my team consists of Sens players, hopefully that will rather help me than hurt me. I may have reached on a few of my d-men picks but I was afraid of a d-man run that never came. I totally ignored the new random SHP category and expect to finish last there, but I felt that chasing players with good SHP stats was not worth doing, it would probably hurt me in other categories, instead I was more aggresive this year in chasing hits.
Sleeper pick on your team:
17.10 Jarvis, Seth (CAR) – He was projected to break out last year but it never happened, he’s only 21 and will get every opportunity to succeed this season. And having multi positions in Yahoo doesn’t hurt.
Sleeper pick of the draft:
Fosten - 14.01 Tolvanen, Eeli (SEA) – He was not on my radar at all so I really was surprised with this pick, instead I could pick the player I wanted so I’m happy and who plays on the same team Burakovsky with multi positions in Yahoo and is on PP1.
Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted:
Ira
Name that player:
11.09 Nelson, Brock (NYI) – Great value here, he was on top of my Q, had to take a flyer on Zacha instead.
Thoughts on other teams:
All teams look really good. But I think that Fosten chasing Hits and Blocks will hurt his chances of repeating, but it’s a long season so there’s still time to make changes.
Other noteworthy items:
What was he thinking! Worst manager miscue of the draft (let's have some fun with this one):
Rick Custer - 17.06 Ekman-Larsson, Oliver (FLA) – picking him as goalie will really hurt his chances😉, I made almost the same mistake picking Chychrun as a C but I managed to correct my mistake.
Predict the top 3 mgrs:
After excluding my team, my app predicts the following:
First: Filthy
Second: Little M
Third: mailedfoot
Stanley Cup Winner:
Devils
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| 3 | mailedfoot
ID: 6951918
Mon, Oct 09, 2023, 19:59
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Your best value pick(s): Hoping this will turn out to be Akira Schmid. It would be nice to have a young, keeper quality goaltender and he could be the guy. If not, probably one of my trio of late round defensemen (Werenski, Theodore, or DeAngelo).
Your riskiest pick(s): Larkin or Kuemper. Larkin seems divisive in fantasy circles. He’s either already reached his peak or (hopefully) will hit another level playing on a better team with DeBrincat. Washington has a lot of question marks and Kuemper is one of them.
Thoughts on your own team: Scoring has been a problem for my team the last few years and not feeling confident this draft has solved that issue. With our scoring category shakeup, there may be new opportunities to take advantage of. Short handed points could be a real wild card.
Sleeper pick on your team: DeAngelo? Tried to focus on offensive d-men late in the draft and think DeAngelo moving back to Carolina and getting lots of power play time will be just what the doctor ordered. Feels like good value for a 14th round pick.
Sleeper pick of the draft: Bertuzzi? Had him on my radar and looks like he will start the year on top line with Matthews and Marner.
Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted: Bo Horvat was at the top of my list when Ira picked him right in front of me. To be fair, I think Dylan Cozens will be a nice consolation prize.
Thoughts on other teams: Cobwebs’ four keepers stand out to me as being overall a cut above everyone else’s and, in my mind, makes him the favorite. This league seems like it is usually won with in-season management however, so I expect the winner will have made some savvy roster moves.
Other noteworthy items: I will be interested to see how the new scoring system plays out and think it could be quite significant in determining the winner.
What was he thinking! Worst manager miscue of the draft (let's have some fun with this one): My pick of Johansson probably qualifies here; his career NHL stats: 11-13-4 record with a 3.35 GAA and an .886 save percentage.
Predict the top 3 managers: 1-Cobwebs, 2-Ira, 3-Filthy
Stanley Cup Winner: Dallas Stars
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| 4 | Ira
ID: 48926111
Wed, Oct 11, 2023, 02:27
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I've always enjoyed these
Your best value pick(s):
None of my picks really stand out for me as tremendous value so I might just piggyback off The Dienasty's comment of my Matheson pick towards the end of the draft. He'll be given all the best offensive minutes and quarterbacking PP1 in Montreal.
Your riskiest pick(s):
1.09 Vasilevskiy, Andrei
For obvious reasons. If he isn't back at 100% in 2 months and given the workload that he's used to when he's back, this could be my downfall. The reason I picked him so high was that based on my projections even missing 2 months would put him towards the top end of expected starter volume and the bonus would be that he could end up as a keeper for next year.
Thoughts on your own team:
I think I played it pretty safe for the most part. I'm not relying on any breakout seasons or bouncebacks (maybe besides Carlson). I think I'm looking pretty balanced but lack some of the top end offensive star power as some of the other teams. If anything I might have put myself in a vulnerable position for regression years as I have a few grizzled vets (Marchand, Crosby, Krieder, Carlson)
Sleeper pick on your team:
I'll pick two
12.03 Hofer, Joel
If Binnington continues his poor play from last year (and I think he's gotten worse every year since his cup), Hofer's in a prime position to have the sort of season that Husso had 2 seasons ago when he commandeered the starting role.
17.09 Mangiapane, Andrew
With the Flames offense expected to bounce back in a big way, Mangianpane has been given top-line deployment with Huberdeau and Lindholm as well as PP1 during the pre-season, so if that can continue into the regular season getting him with my last pick of the draft could be a steal. He's also multi-position on Yahoo.
Sleeper pick of the draft:
I'm not sure there's one that sticks out to me so I'm going to treat this like a Best value pick:
8.10 Verhaeghe, Carter
Getting a 40 goal scorer at the end of the 8th round was a steal by Perm Dude!
Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted:
Name that player: 3.04 Hyman, Zach
Pretty early in the draft (5 picks before me), but was the most disappointed of a player that went before my pick.
Thoughts on other teams:
Agree with the post above mine re: the embarrassment of riches that Cobwebs is bringing in form last year's team! Wowzers.
Other noteworthy items: Curious to see how the new scoring structure plays out. I was the one that advocated for less of a role for goalies and here I am picking one with my first pick and ending up with 4!
What was he thinking! Worst manager miscue of the draft (let's have some fun with this one):
I didn't think there was any egregious picks this year. I guess I'm the dick that will have a pick that isn't mine haha
12. 03 Hofer, Joel
This was a reach and I instantly regretted it after doing it. Living in Australia my process was to make a list before bed and when I'd wake up for a toilet run in the middle of thr night my pick was usually up so I'd be half asleep when making it. For this particular pick I had about half a dozen skaters at the top of my queue with a couple low end goalies at the bottom to save for later. Evidently all the skaters had been picked so I chose Hofer. I then realized Copley was still unpicked and regret not choosing him instead :P
I was surprised to see Knies picked as high as he did considering all the top-6 and PP players still available. Given the injury history of Matthews and Bertuzzi though I'm sure he'll get put a good stretch together at some point in the year :)
Predict the top 3 mgrs:
First: C. Superfreak
Second: Little M
Third: Perm Dude
Stanley Cup Winner
Gotta go with my Oilers (feels so weird to say!)
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| 5 | taxman
ID: 40943212
Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 01:55
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Your best value pick(s):
best value @ 15.01 John Klingberg - uber talented with the puck, but a liability in D zone. Was been in salary cap purgatory (Ana/Min)since the Stars cut him loose. Now running the powerful Toronto pp could put him back into the top 10 Dman discussion (for PP anyway)
My most valuable pick was 2.11 Miro Heiskanen who is a t
Your riskiest pick(s):
3.01 Matt Boldy Min Boldy broke 60 point (26 on PP) plateau in his sophomore campaign. That's the problem, no track record. Can he make another jump to become elite scorer (see rise of Jason Robertson) or will he be a one and done flash in the pan.
Thoughts on your own team:
My team was not drafted to compete this year, but instead with an eye towards youth and being competitive next year. Heiskanen will replace Josi as a keeper and Bedard/Boldy/Johnston may replace Gaudreau/Nugent-Hopkins. Oh the plans of mice and men.
Sleeper pick on your team:
16.11 Wyatt Johnston Dal The 20 yr old is entering his sophomore season in a top 6 role amid some serious fire power. Dallas has become the Toronto of the west and Johnston is centering the 2nd line and 2nd PP unit
Sleeper pick of the draft:
Vlad Tarasenko by Cobwebs
Name the manager who stole the one player you had really wanted:
Fosten
Name that player:
Luke Schenn and Radko Gudas
Thoughts on other teams:
Other noteworthy items:
What was he thinking! Worst manager miscue of the draft (let's have some fun with this one):
Me drafting Victor Arvidsson out with back injury
Predict the top 3 mgrs:
First: Fosten
Second: Cobwebs
Third: Dienasty
Stanley Cup Winner: Stars
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