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Subject: RIHC 2006-07: Draft Recap
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Oct 25, 2006, 14:43
Once the RIHC draft has finished, I invite each of the participants to share any overall reactions that they have. Feel free to say as much or as little as you wish. As a guide, you might consider the following questions:
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
2) What surprised you?
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Outsiders who were not participating in the draft are also welcome to share their general reactions.
Draft listing and grid |
| 1 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 26, 2006, 13:46
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
I wanted to land a few big guys early, hopefully with block potential, and without reaching too deeply. It didn't work. Guys who I had targeted (knowing that many would be long shots):
Pick 8: Brand (taken 6) - "settled" for Wade
Pick 17: Bosh (10), Kiri (13), Yao (14) - not even close, settled for Billups
Pick 32: Jermaine (25), Josh Smith (26), Amare (27) - took Odom
Pick 41: Camby (36), Okur (33), Gerald Wallace (40) - took Boozer
At that point, it was clear that getting blocks was going to require reaching or taking big risks earlier than I wanted, and I decided not to go that route. Instead, I beagn to ponder a plan to punt blocks altogether and to avoid players whose value was materially related to blocks, unless their other stats justified the pick anyway.
2) What surprised you?
Other than the inability to land shot blockers early (which wasn't really a big surprise - by picking in the #8 slot, I knew that was a potential problem, especially once Brand disappeared), I thought the draft was pretty "tight". I did notice that the guys picking 9-12 seemed to be constantly picking from my queues, while the guys picking 1-7 were less "piggy" in that regard.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
I think that around the 6th round, when I took Mo Pete instead of Villanueva, I had pretty much settled on my blockless approach, although I hadn't formally resorted my player rankings.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
I'm content with my lot. I do think that if I had selected to pick 11-12 instead of 8 (which I strongly considered), my team would look much differently, although I'd have been targeting Bosh as my first pick, and when he went at pick 10, I'd have been similarly bummed. So it wouldn't necessarily look any better - just different. I might have Yao for my 3rd straight season. Or maybe Kirilenko. And instead of getting two guards to start off, I'd have been chasing guards in rounds 3-4.
I'm not wholly uncomfortable with this approach. If the league is competitive from top to bottom, then punting a category is not terminal. Last season, Mike D won while ranking 3rd from bottom in FT%, and with 71 points overall. That's an average of about 9 per category, or 10 per category with a 1 in blocks. I think I have a shot to do that well - although I recognize that the margin for error is probably slight. But that's always the case, with or without a punt. And in my case, it's not really a punt. It's more of a quick kick.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
If Wade can stay healthy and play healthy, I like him falling to the #8 spot. But I hate hearing about how tired he is already, and everytime I seem him hit the floor with a thud, I cringe.
I thought Odom at pick 32 was good value. Also happy with Mo Pete in round 6. Kevin Martin in round 11 could be a nice sleeper. Anthony Johnson could even provide something as my 15th rounder.
My worst pick might have been Billups in round 2. If he doesn't deliver similar numbers to last year, then I overreached, and I don't have a lot of depth at PG (although some of my forwards will get a decent amount of assists). I might have been better off to take Carmelo at that spot (I actually had him ranked higher than Billups, but decided that getting a PG was going to give me more flexibility later on.) If I'd have taken Carmelo in round 2, though, as I scan down the next few rounds, I think I'd have had trouble getting a PG at a price I wanted to pay, so maybe Billups was helpful in that regard.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
I thought Antawn Jamison offered good value at 5.07 (Coldwater nabbed him right in front of me).
Dwight Howard sliding to 3.07 (Mike D) was surprising.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
I don't any picks that I thought were major stretches. Lots of minor stretches, but that's normal - and necessary, in many instances.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Frankly, I think this league looks really tight as the season begins. I can't single out anyone that I think looks to be the favorite at this point. Too many variables.
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| 2 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 35616416
Fri, Oct 27, 2006, 19:30
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
First thing I have to do is give a big thanks to Guru, who made most of my picks for me as my availability was very limited during the day.
Strategy wise, I knew that I needed to leave queues for my picks, sometimes short and sometimes long. That meant I had to guess as to who would be available for my picks. I felt that I could not simply go for the "best available player" option all the time, for fear og getting completely logjammed at certain positions. Case in point was round 3, where my queue was mostly loaded up on guards since I had two big men. That meant I passed on Dwight Howard for Kirk Hinrich. Who knows if I wouldn't have stil picked Hinrich myself, but leaving the queues made all those kind of tough decisions moot (for better or worse).
In the first round it boiled down between Brand and Arenas. I ended up favoring Brand because I like to target blocks early, and simply he is a fantasy beast. Arenas is too, but I thought it would be easier to pick up steals and 3's later in the draft without having to reach as much, compared to having to reach for blocks.
Other than that, I ranked my players in hopes of tryng to reach my total stat targets. After every round, I looked back over my team's projected stats to see where I was falling behind most in, then targetted those particular areas as best as possible.
2) What surprised you?
Not much really. There did not seem to be any major surprises. I guess the biggest thing for me was the amount of trading during the draft. This was by far the most swapping of picks in a draft that I participated in. At times it made it hard to follow who was picking when. I also missed out on most opportunites for this since I was not always able to pay attention to the draft.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
It turned out that picking up steals proved to be harder than I thought, so I never ended up a player who is a league leader in that category. Instead I tried to piece together a bunch of guys who will get some steals. I expect however, to be near the bottom in this cat.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
As noted by my draft rationale I would have taken Chandler over Granger. It seems to have ben a little early for Granger and I might have gotten him in the next round. As a result of passing on Chandler, I waited until very late in the draft to take some back up centers. So, those positions are very uncertain for me.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best: Mike James in round 5 seems to be a good value based on his position in the other drafts. At the time, I really needed a 2nd PG, so I like this pick. Also, Emeka Okafor could be a steal, as long as he is healthy. He was drafted much higher going into last year. This pick could turn out well for me.
Worst: I've berated Granger long enough, so I'll pass on him now and say Damon Stoudamire. While I do think he could be a steal, every other fantasy source seems to be down on him this year. I don't get it exactly. He's back and he's playing, so he should produce good numbers. Lionprideguy mentioned he was looking at Stoudamire for round 9, so at least I know he wouldn't have made it back to me.
I followed that pick with Jarret Jack in round 10, an unproven player. That could turn out to be another bad pick. Only time will tell.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Mo Pete (6.05), Zach Randolph (7.11) and Drew Gooden (9.08) all provided excellent value at their various ppoints in the draft, IMO.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Carmelo Anthony (2.06) - I don't think he contributes enough in the other cats to be taken this high.
The early round eight centers: Darko, Curry, and Zaza, especially since they were all taken before Chandler and Shaq (and even an injured Gasol).
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Always a tough question. The league looks fairly well balanced, but I do like skineej's and Mike D's teams the most. Other than that, my guys are ready to go.
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| 3 | lionprideguy
ID: 32357261
Sat, Oct 28, 2006, 05:51
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
As in past years, I thought I had a strategy going in, but it seemed to fall apart sometime around the middle rounds. I tried a few different kind of ranking systems but they all get pretty murky by midway through anyway. I tried to keep an eye on roster balance throughout so that I could make the most of any opportunities that came along - for instance, if a great forward fell to me in the 10th round, I would be able to take advantage of that opportunity instead of having to pass it out of desperation for a center, for example.
2) What surprised you?
I always enter this draft expecting it to be tight, so I wasn't surprised how often I would put together a 4-player queue and see each of the players go in the 4 picks ahead of me. Although something like FootWedge taking exactly my two next choices, Hill and Tinsley, in the turnaround from 11 to 12 was uncanny. The speed of the draft surprised me a bit, it seemed like everybody was so well prepared that some entire rounds would go quickly, and making me plan ahead earlier than usual in case I'd be caught unprepared to pick again.
I think I'd say the runs on point guards each time surprised me a bit too. Each time my pick came around, it seemed to be caught inbetween flights of PGs. For example, at 3.11 and 4.02, it was too late to get Bibby/Hinrich but too early for Terry/Baron/Felton/Parker/Miller. Similarly, 7.11 and 8.02 seemed to early for Speedy/Stoudamire/Cassell but at 9.11 and 10.02 it was too late. One of the quirks of the draft position this time around maybe. I never panicked too much because I felt like that was one position that was going to be really deep in this year's draft, where late-round picks were going to have as much of a good chance to contribute and be effective as some of the mid-round players. Last year Jameer Nelson and Mike James were undrafted for example, and TJ Ford did well for me from the 10th round. It still will be a risky spot for me, as Mo Wililams and Telfair are gambles and it would be nice to have a solid, consistant PG which I've always tried to do in previous years. Last year, I targeted Kidd in the first round and Chris Paul later, and the combo was killer for G stats. It's going to be a challenge this time, but even stretching a bit to get Deron Williams at 6.02 looks like it might turn out okay.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
I had to accept that I wasn't going to get any category-killer players and would have to take some gambles on risk/reward players, as well as look for overall balance. For example, without getting a backcourt of PGs like Kidd/Paul again, or a pair of big men like Brand/Bosh/Dwight Howard, I wasn't going to be able to control an entire category like assists or rebounds like last year. I was going to have to accept getting the numbers spread out among all players across my roster. This has a snowball effect, though. When you don't have a dominant player in one category early to give you the advantage in blocks, for example, it also means you can't draft a single-category specialist later (in my strategy, at least). Because if I'm going to need all my players to chip in some assists or rebounds, for example, I can't take a later-round player like Kyle Korver whose value is primarily from 3's but not a lot else. So you end up drafting more generalists to go with your earlier generalists, and soon your entire team is kind of spread out. The possibility of having Boris Diaw as my second center for most of the draft is another good example - by drafting a second center who gets almost no blocks but lots of assists (hopefully), that leaves a void in the stat that position normally gets.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
I would have made the trades with Florian each time I had the chance! 3 of his first 5 picks - Bosh, Allen, and Parker - were exactly the players I had ideally planned to build around at those spots in the draft. For a while I thought I was going to end up just rooting for Florian's team as much as mine, since it was the team I would have wanted, and could have had if I made the trades!
As mentioned earlier, I think I might have also tried to avoid getting caught without good PGs early in the draft again. That might have meant trying to trade positions a bit more to get into good value areas to draft someone else.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
The 7.11/8.02 pair of Zach Randolph and Steve Francis could pay off well, especially if tonight's preseason game for Francis is an indicator of what might be possible this year. Maybe I'm like Larry Brown right now in that I don't like too many of my players at the moment at all.
Worst picks - 5.11 could end up high for David West, as he is a bit of a role player. The later rounds could all be junk - we know that Kwame disappoints every year, and it'd be a shock if Stromile actually lives up to the hype for a change. Diaw could be a stretch at 3.11 because he doesn't get traditional center numbers, and if you don't play him there he's not a really exceptional forward, especially with the mystery of Amare and what happens if he comes back and becomes Nash's favorite pick and roll partner again instead of Diaw. Forced to choose of all these options, I guess I'd say Stromile is the worst pick though because he has disappointed so many times, the odds are best that it'll happen again.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Every pick that was stolen ahead of mine, it seemed. Overall, the end of round 2 seemed to have great value - McGrady as a potential return to first-round form, Duncan and Kidd and Joe Johnson all going at the end of the second round, could make for some big returns. Mike Dunleavey at 9.03 might finally be his year under Don Nelson and I had looked hard at him at 8.02. Marcus Williams at 14.10 as NJ's rotation seems to be settling down and giving him good minutes. Shaun Livingston at 11.05 since he looks like he's starting ahead of Cassell, and Brevin Knight giving big assists and steals from 11.01. Again, I was caught on the wrong side of round 11's point gaurd run! Tayshaun Prince at 9.09 could be a key guy too.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
I'm probably going against the crowd here, but Josh Smith at 3.02 could be nervous because he could end up going so many different ways this year, from star to getting into the doghouse. Michael Redd I sometimes have a hard time getting excited about too, with Dwight Howard still on the board. Zaza and Kendrick Perkins maybe, even though I loved having Perkins last year in the second half of the season, because his minutes might be hard to come by and he's foul prone still. Anything in rounds 12+ are a roll of the dice anyway so no problems with whoever someone wanted to take a risk on there.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I still really like Florian's team, and Swish and Edgar look good again. I have no idea who is on MikeD's team since I never remembered what green vs. red meant on the kafenatid draft chart, and he may have traded all the guys again since I wrote this so I either love his team or hate it.
Thanks for a fun draft and good luck to everybody this season!
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| 4 | Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Mon, Oct 30, 2006, 06:16
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As always, Edgar is his own man, and will decimate any errant comments of mine in due course ;)
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
Like many others, we tried to trade down to 7/8 to have a shot at Brand or Arenas. And like everyone else, we failed! Apart from that, we really just decided to go for the best player available in the early rounds, and then gamble a lot more on sleepers late on. We did not really have the time to engross ourseleves in stats and spreadsheets to prepare this year, so much of the draft was done on cheatsheets and gut feelings. And as seems to be the norm for us now, our Center dodging lasted until round 7 this year!
2) What surprised you?
That's easy - Chandler and Shaq lasting until 92 and 93. As i wrote about in the rationale, i was astounded that we almost got to choose between these 2 in round 8 as i was convinced neither of them would come back. It didn't surprise me as such, but i did find it pretty funny picking beside skinneej - there were times it seemed like we were drafting off the same lists. I remember writing and reading several rationales about nabbed players (Redd/Rashard, Chandler/Shaq, Wally/Hedo spring to mind). Half the fun of a slow draft is tying to read and psych out the guys picking around you. I learnt that from Dave R last year ;)
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
I don't think it ever really did. It was always the plan to get a solid base in the first 3 or 4 picks and then go a bit more breakout as things progressed.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
In hindsight, it was probably a mistake to not pick Dwight Howard at 3.04. We skipped him last year and skipped him twice this year. I think we could regret that, especially since he fell in to the hands of Mike D...AGAIN! Avoiding him purely because of FT% (which, sickeningly, seems to have improved somewhat based on the preseason) was probably a bit of a chicken move, but i am consoled slightly by the fact that others skipped for the same reason.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
I like pretty much all of our picks, but i actually think i like Andre Miller best at 4.09. His assist numbers in limited minutes during the preseason have been exceptional, and working in Karl's new Suns style offense, i expect 15 assist games to be the rule, rather than the exception. I also love getting a healthy (ahem) Tracy Mcgrady at 21 - that was sweet. Tyson Chandler was a nice prize in round 8, i really expect 10 boards and 2 blocks from him this year. And Rajon Rondo in round 13 - watch this dude rack up the huge steal totals!
Maybe our worst pick was Chris Wilcox. I mean, he's got his $ now, so will he perform? I was really worried the way Collison stepped it up during the preseason, but with Swift now out for the year, i guess that pretty much locks Wilcox into 35 mpg. He's gotta be able to produce with that, right? Rudy Gay could be a crash and burn as he's a bit of an unknown, but those preseason hustle stats are a nice indicator hopefully. KMart is risky also, and could easily fit in either category, depending on how well his creaky knees hold out.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Antawn Jamison at 5.07, Zach at 7.11, but especially Shaq at 8.08. I mean holy moly - Shaq at the end of round 8... FT issues or not, you gotta have a big smile on your face at that pick! Dwight Howard will be terrific value for Mike D. And some nice flyer picks in the last few rounds - Marcus Williams, Bynum, and Luther Head i especially liked in 14 and 15.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Sarunas Jasikevicius in round 13 really surprised me. Darko went a bit earlier than i thought he would, especially with Shaq and Chandler still on the board. Zaza at 8.06 seemed a little over the top as well, but once again, i'll probably be made to eat my words. Overall, i think this was a pretty "by the book" draft.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Florian. I look across his board, and cannot pick out any one cat that he doesn't have covered if everything goes right for him. Very dangerous squad. I also like the look of RSF's squad - especially if Gasol returns by the new year.
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| 5 | Footwedge
Leader
ID: 29017810
Mon, Oct 30, 2006, 13:45
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1)Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
I think my strategy was to get a few big men and PG early and fill in with SG and SF later leaning towards multi category types. I had to make a long queue for round 3-12 and 4-1. This got me in trouble as I got Camby and B. Wallace. With Kiri already on blocks I needed to build other categories.
2)What surprised you?
Not much. As usual whoever picks ahead of me is using my queue.
3)How did your approach change as things unfolded?
After Kiri and Camby I realized I needed depth so I changed to try and accommodate potential missed games. Although it seemed injuy prone players kept falling to the point I couldn’t resist the values.
4)If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
I think at 6-1 I wanted Deron Williams and needed a PG but I opted for B. Gordon and the treys hoping that either Williams, Alston or Ford would be around on my next pick which of course they weren’t.
5)Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Don’t think I have a pick that stands out as best. My worst would have to be Camby at 3-12 after already having plenty of blocks with Kiri. So much for long queues.
6)The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
I liked lionprides pick of Deron Williams and also Nazr(I just feel they will let him have all the boards he wants in Det.). I love RSF with Knight in the 11th, even playing 50 games you’ll get a ton of assists also Howard at 3-7 and Jamison 5-7 were steals.
7)2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Most that seemed a little early weren’t far off and usually position or need oriented.
8)If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I don’t know if I could pick just one. I think maybe Mike D he’s got like 20 something players. Even with just the green ones he looks good.
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| 6 | Mike D
Leader
ID: 41831612
Mon, Oct 30, 2006, 15:15
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
As I said in my first draft pick rationale, I really was on a 48 hour crash course to prepare for this draft. It forced me to start taking a look at player movement, depth charts, and rankings. My only objective was to make a couple of safe early round picks while I got up to speed. As I started researching, I was horrified to find how much talent would be available in the first couple of rounds this year. How would I separate these guys? I didn’t have much time to do it.
Although not initially looking to deal, the draft pick swap of 1st and 2nd round picks with Mike V was very positive for me. It let me relax and read up on things without the pressure of that # 7 pick. Pressure because I wasn’t really prepared yet. I wouldn’t pick again until pick 22, and had plenty of time now. My strategy is usually “best player available,” and I tried to run with it as long as I could.
2) What surprised you?
I was very surprised at how fast centers were taken. Maybe because I undervalued them. I also felt point guards went a little bit faster this year than in other years. I was surprised by how many people said they would have taken Wade as early as # 2 or # 3. I was surprised Kobe was # 2, and that universally across Fantasy Land people were doing the same thing (ahead of KG). Also, I was very surprised that I was able to get some people later than I though I could, even after almost picking them earlier. The old quandary of wondering whether you like them more than you should, or if everyone else likes them less than they should.
Most of all, I was surprised at how many trades I made! This was never a strategy for me prior to the draft. The willingness of my trading partners----and even those that had discussions with me without making a deal----was very surprising, in a great way.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
Many times as I came up to pick I had several players I liked and that I thought I could target even after trading down. No one jumped off the page at me. I began looking for these situations and taking advantage of them. In some cases, offers came in to me from proactive GMs who had players targeted. This process helped me sort through groups of similarly ranked players. In essence, I watched and waited as players were eliminated for me. This “left” me with a smaller queue but I still took players I wanted in that general draft pick area.
Another approach change was waiting on centers so long. Especially after Zaza, who was the last center I would want until really late in the draft. I even considered not drafting another center (and laughed every time Guru posted a rationale flaming the remaining centers-----he was in the same boat as me!).
After Howard fell to me in the 3rd round, and then Baron Davis in the 5th, I had to be much more conscious about FT%. I don’t think I paid enough attention to it as I could have, but I didn’t want to overpay for it either. However, FT% concerns prevented me from drafting players like Chandler & other centers, and various other good players that I can’t recall. I briefly considered drafting Shaq and tanking FT%.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Prepare earlier! I was lucky to make the deal with Mike V and have more time to research. It worked out, as I gained the extra time I needed. But I shudder to think how things may have gone otherwise. I might have taken Desmond Mason or Eddy Curry at # 7 (lol).
I like the trades I made and would not change any of them.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
KG at # 3 after starting with the # 7 pick, Howard at 3.07, and hopefully Dunleavy 9th round, Steven Jackson 11th round, and Donyell Marshall 14th round.
Worst? I’ve seen slightly negative feedback about Zaza at 8.06. I had no centers at that point though, and felt if I didn’t get him, I’d be in deep doodoo. I needed a center that could throw some free throws through the net. Possibly Alston at 6.12, though I had targeted him. We’ll see.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Jamison at 5.07 (coldwater), Randolph 7.11 (lionprideguy) and Marcus Williams at 14.10 (Mike V). Also Brevin Knight at 11.01 by RSF.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Many, but nothing shocking. In a league like this, you want someone, you take ‘em. End of story.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I haven’t looked too closely, but from a quick glance, possibly lionprideguy. I do see a lot of parity, which is typical.
A very fun draft which typically moved at a good pace. Highpoints for me: Watching as Klyce refused to draft a PG until the 26th round (lol). Enjoying Guru flaming the remaining centers in his rationales-----I felt his pain-----. RSF wanting me to trade down every time I had a pick, secretly planning to move ALL my picks to the last round (“you’ll own that 15th round brother!”). skinneej e-mailing me telling me who I must be considering----and nailing it every time (the dude is psych(ot)ic). LPG making great picks and then complaining about them in his rationales (LMAO!). The Euros citing “collusion” amongst themselves as reason for delay. And most of all, someone responding to a trade offer of mine which was for draft pick swaps and “possibly” even players with: “I’m not quite ready to deal any of my players.” Sheesh. It was already like the 8th round!
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| 7 | RecycledSpinalFluid
Dude
ID: 204401122
Tue, Oct 31, 2006, 13:56
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
I had two distinct strategies. First off was trying to con...uh, I mean, convince Mike D into moving all his picks into the 15th round, pushing hard for him to take the literal interpretation of the adage "You win Roto Leagues with your late round (meaning 15th in this case) picks, not your first rounders." Well, I got him to bite once, but couldn't keep him drinking the kool-aid for long.
My other strategy was to learn from my 04/05 RIHC experience. That would mostly be to not pickup sucky players (cough, Eric Snow, cough). Well, I did select Bonzi Wells...again...so I'm not too certain I actually learned anything.
2) What surprised you?
Don't think there was really much that surprised me. A few picks here and there, but nothing that stands out.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
I think I tried to think too much about who was going to draft whom. At one point I tried to trade up 7 slots or so then tried to work trades all the way down to 2 slots before (with each successive pick), thinking I needed to grab a specific player. Well, turns out my two guys were at my slots anyway. Either I picked crappy players or I can't read the other managers.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
As much as I hate my team, I like them all the same. Don't really think I would draft too differently. Might have moved down from the 1 spot to the 6 to 11 range and gone with a Chris Paul or Gilbert Arenas. I'd also go visit Mike Bibby and give him a special thumb immobilizing glove the day before he jammed it. And told him to wear it "or else".
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best: 1.01, LeBron James. How can you get better than that?
Best Non 1.01: 10.12 and 11.01, Jason Williams and Brevin Knight. JDub looks to be on course for mid Nov return. Brevin will be interesting to watch. I also really like the Hakin Warrick 15.01 select and Nick Collison at 13.01.
Worst: The even rounds. More specifically, 8.12 Bonzi, 12.12 James Jones and 14.12 Jarvis Hayes. Bonzi is full of a lot of stuff, including potential to melt down. JJ is all about threes and Hayes was all about potential. Most interesting that of all the RIHC leagues, I'm the only one who took Hayes and James in a draft. Whats that really mean?
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Delonte West at 11.02. Spanky Griffin at 15.04, but the ultimate teaser. Leandro Barbosa at 12.07 for the breakout potential.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Not really higher than expected, but not worth the potential headache, would be Sheed Wallace in the 5th. Too much potential for combustion. Nothing really sticks out as much of a reach.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I see a few teams I wouldn't trade for but nothing that really screams must have. If I had to choose, I'd go with Footwedge. Great potential in vets, but quite a few players who will breakdown physically. Man, Grant Hill, Jamaal Tinsley, Bobby Jackson, AK, Chris Webber, Marvin Williams, Marcus Camby...damn. You are a brave soul.
Really enjoyed agonizing over selections and hating everyone I made.
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| 8 | Florian
Leader
ID: 034815289
Wed, Nov 01, 2006, 20:40
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
I was planning on going for the best available players early on and filling in my position needs and weaknesses later in the draft. It pretty worked out as expected.
2) What surprised you?
Not much. It seemed like everyone was picking off the same list of players, but that is to be expected in a league like this.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
I found it difficult to get blocks and rebounding which led to some risky picks I wasn't planning on making (notably Milicic).
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
At this point I wouldn't change anything. I'll probably regret that comment.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
I really like Mike Miller at the end of the seventh round. I like Marbury in the early fourth round. I'm not unhappy with any of my picks right now. The picks I'm most worried about are Bosh (because of his plantar fasciitis) and Milicic.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Dwight Howard in the mid third round (especially if his FT% improves). Rasheed Wallace in the 5th round. Randolph at the end of the 7th round.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Carmelo Anthony in the second round. Not really surprised by any other picks.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I'm happy with my team, but if I had to I'd trade for Mike D or Swish/Edgar's team. Both teams seem very strong. I'd consider Lionprideguy's team as well.
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| 9 | skinneej
Leader
ID: 040625911
Sat, Nov 11, 2006, 00:25
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Is it time to do our recaps yet? :( I apologize for the delay in submitting it. I had good intentions several times of getting it done, but due to work and trying to finish grad school, I have had little time to keep up. While some of my responses may have been influenced by having two weeks of hindsight, I tried to keep it to what I felt after the draft leading up to the season.
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
I decided to use a different approach this year in setting up my rankings. In the past, I have focused on per game averages and paid less attention to projected games played. I think this was skewing me to players that play very well but tend to miss time each season. I started with a downloadable projection file, and then adjusted the expected games played based on the last 3 years data and my own adjustments for certain players. While it still brings subjectiveness into the equation, I have to allow myself some room to interject my perceptions.
Primarily based on this new approach for me, I found that I was now favoring players that missed fewer games (surprise surprise). Instead of drafting two players in the first five rounds that had injury/behavior issues like I did last year (Artest, G. Hill), my first 6 picks this season were relatively low-risk. Of the 6, only Kidd has had a recent history of missing games, and his 3 year average GP is 71. I hope this keeps me from having to replace many games from the big guns which has been an issue in years past.
The strategy did go pretty well in the first 10 rounds, but I may have made a couple picks in later rounds that were impacted by this approach. I may have introduced some bias into the rankings by avoiding some players due to recent year injury histories. For instance, I avoided Kurt Thomas in rd 13, when he was a more logical choice than McDyess. McDyess has been healthy the last two years, but his first year in the 3 year average was skewing the data because he missed nearly the entire season. I reasoned that it should be thrown out since his last two years he has not been injured. Thomas had a history of rarely missing a game, but last year he missed 30. In his case, I kept the three year average and it caused his overall numbers to fall below McDyess on my projections. I also reasoned that McDyess would get more minutes this year with the departure of Big Ben, so that was what led to that decision. I have since determined that the approach to that pick was likely flawed, and he is no longer on my team.
2) What surprised you?
The run on centers, even some marginal guys, was the theme to the draft I believe. I don’t think there were many reaches throughout the draft, but due to the positional requirements of two centers, several were going more than a couple rounds earlier than I had projected. I reacted in rd 4 to get Ilgauskas, and was left choosing between Shaq and Chandler in rd 8.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
Neither of my starting center picks were a reach, but it certainly caused me to re-evaluate my pre-draft thinking of waiting late to grab big guys. I usually lay out the first 6-8 rounds with players that I am considering in each round based on who I expect to be there. The change allowed me to get some solid guards in later rounds, so I feel good about the balance of the team.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Other than a couple picks in late rounds, I would not make any key changes. The only one that is close was R. Lewis over D. Howard in rd 3, but right now I am still fine with the decision.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best pick right now is Bynum in rd 15. His time may go down as the season progresses, but so far the kid looks good. Livingston in rd 11 may be a close second. Shaq could end up going either way, who knows. McDyess in rd 13 and Salmons in rd 14 were not the best choices based on the early season results.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals. I really like Kevin Martin and Barbosa and both were guys I had on my radar for the later rounds. Others that are looking great right now are Boozer, Okafor, Gooden and Villanueva.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Other than a handful of centers that went in the middle rounds, I thought this draft was the closest to the vest that I’ve ever done. Even when I had half my queue get back to me in some rounds, the picks being made were in the ballpark and it was simply managers filling positional or statistical holes.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be? I like several of the teams that have been mentioned, but I was surprised no one mentioned Guru’s team. I would make a round by round update of each team based on my projections and how that affected each category and after 12 rounds, I had Guru’s team ranked just of head of mine with a couple others just behind me. It’s funny because I think his team is very solid, but without all the flash, it is overlooked. Correction, after a second look, he does have “Flash” after all! Other than blocks, his team is above average in every category.
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