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Subject: Spread vs. Real Odds of Winning
Posted by: Optimization
- [440261115] Sun, Jan 11, 2004, 16:33
Given the spread in college basketball and in the NBA, what are the actual chances of a team winning based on history? I can not find a web site with this info. I especially want to know college basketball, since I will be going down to Vegas for the first week of March Madness and of course, my NCAA College Basketball Polls. |
| 1 | Optimization
ID: 320341323
Wed, Jan 14, 2004, 00:36
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No help on this subject, anyone?
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| 2 | Sludge
Leader
ID: 25919714
Wed, Jan 14, 2004, 08:20
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Dunno where you can find the data, but I can give you a pointer on how to estimate the probabilities if you ever do.
Logistic regression would be a good starting point.
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| 3 | Optimization
ID: 320341323
Thu, Jan 15, 2004, 00:46
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I know how to figure a point spread between two versus teams, but I do not know the history of the actual chances of a team winning based their point spread (the missing link).
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| 4 | ukula
ID: 320461515
Thu, Jan 15, 2004, 16:49
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Optimization - I can get that info for you.
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| 5 | Sludge
Leader
ID: 25919714
Thu, Jan 15, 2004, 21:05
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Re: 3 -
Right, and logistic regression would probably be the best tool for estimating the probability. You get me the data, running the analysis would be a 10 minute job (excluding the time necessary to reformat the data).
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| 6 | NY Studs
ID: 46027910
Thu, Jan 15, 2004, 21:39
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Check out wagerline.com -- "Trends"
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| 7 | Sludge
Leader
ID: 25919714
Thu, Jan 15, 2004, 22:01
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If this is the page you're referring to, this isn't what Opt is looking for.
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| 8 | ukula
ID: 20831621
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 00:03
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Optimization - You won't get much better than this (based on the last 5 years of NCAA Men's Basketball):
Numbers are the Spread followed by the Probability of winning:
1 - 53%
2 - 55%
3 - 58%
4 - 61%
5 - 64%
6 - 66%
7 - 69%
8 - 72%
9 - 75%
10 - 77%
11 - 80%
12 - 83%
13 - 86%
14 - 88%
15 - 91%
16 - 94%
17 - 96%
18 - 99%
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| 9 | Sludge
Leader
ID: 25919714
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 08:09
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Wow... amazingly linear. Not at all like football.
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| 10 | ukula
ID: 53042167
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 08:57
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Sludge - I find football to be relatively linear as well. Do you have different findings?
Of course the incremental probability increases tail off the higher the spread but overall I find them rather linear for the majority of spreads.
The probabilities for the higher spreads in Post #8 should actually be adjusted downward slightly to adjust for the tailing off as we approach 100% but overall I feel it's a good estimate.
I plan on doing a major pointspread study in all sports but I'm still looking for the time needed to piece together 20 years worth of information.
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| 11 | Sludge
Leader
ID: 25919714
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 10:53
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Football is somewhat linear, yes, but the curvature is definitely there and can be easily seen with the naked eye.
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| 12 | Sludge
Leader
ID: 25919714
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 10:58
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BTW, if you want some help with that study, let me know. I'd be more than happy.
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| 13 | ukula
ID: 53042167
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 11:18
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Sludge - email me
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| 14 | Optimization
ID: 110431722
Sun, Jan 18, 2004, 00:03
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Thanks all for everything. It will help when I go to Vegas for March Madness (3/17-3/21) and with my NCAA poll.
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