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Subject: Question - Overall Theory
Posted by: Species
- Leader [7724916] Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 11:51
An interesting question was posed by 420 Boy here: General Fantasy Sports forum that I think would be worthy of more discussion. Since the General Fantasy Sports forum isn't as frequented as Hoops, and I thought it was a good topic, I am pasting the thread here to foster the discussion. Assuming 420 Boy is new I can see why he would put a generic topic in General Fantasy Sports, but Hoops is in season and is getting the most action....
Posted by: 420 boy - [17147207] Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 08:59
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I have been paying attention to the Rotoguru patrons, and their successes in Ultimate Fantasy sports. I personally do alot of research with schedules, and I am extremely knowledgeable about sports in general. Yet, I can not get over the hump in any Ultimate fantasy sports. I have no clue what the problem is. I figure if I make trades depending on schedules, I research health and past performances, I should do fine, but no. Can someone maybe give me an outline of how your success is derived? I'm not looking for a gameplan, as much as just a clue as to what the Rotoguru patrons have done that I haven't. Thank you. |
| 1 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 11:52
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1 Mike D
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 09:28 Interesting issue. My initial reaction is twofold.
People tend to do better at sports they know the most about. Less reasearch is necessary. The history of the players are already known as far as injuries, abilities, playing experience, etc.. This all adds up to better probabilities when picking players, trading, waiving, etc.. Notice I said probability; it's all about predictions, obviously. No one KNOWS the future. (If they do, I wish I had their e-mail address----lol)
So, my first suggestion is focusing on the sport(s) you know best. If I tried my hand at fantasy hockey, it would be an absolute waste of time, for instance. At least initially.
Which leads me to my second point: continue to play and gain experience. Experience at the ins and outs of the fantasy game itself, as well as at learning about the players, only strengthening my first point. I can say I did a lot better at Smallworld/TSN each year that I played. I learned so much about how the game was played----the price changes, the trading strategies, etc.. With Yahoo, there are a lot of nuiances that you can use to your advantage (like how to handle IL players, game limits, inning limits, etc). As you play the games and learn about them, things should become easier.
So I guess what I'm saying is: you may do the best at the sport(s) you have the most knowledge about, and the more you play whatever fantasy game that you are playing, the better you will probably do. Eventually. ;)
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| 2 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 11:53
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2 Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 11:47
Good question, 420.
The focus of the site is derived from the skills of its founder. Guru's professional career involved a lot of quantitative analysis, so when he got the fantasy sports bug he created RotoGuru.com with the focus on the analysis behind these salary-cap, points-driven games.
Typically the site was not intended to offer player recommendations, but rather to offer the tools to allow the managers to make the players decisions themselves. The sortable stats were a godsend, allowing the manager to sort the players by position and a variety of other ways. The "sartibles" as they've affectionately become known (long story) are a staple to everyone on the site.
The Assimilator came along later. So many managers would begin a series of trades only to find out that they had miscalculated their available cash to where a plan was foiled midstream. The Assimilator allows you to plug your team in and make changes to your roster to see not only the financial impact of proposed changes but allows you to calculate projected point totals for all of the various combinations.
I would imagine the message boards have improved things for many people. While it's not the end-all, be-all of TSN strategy, there is a lot of helpful discussion.
I guess that's all a long winded (and commercially oriented! hahahaha) way of saying that I believe your answer is twofold:
1 - The tools
Gives managers the data to make more prudent decisions/see trends in order to both be proactive and reactive compared to the competition.
2 - The community
A lot of ideas and camaraderie gets shared on the site. There's also smack-talking and whatnot that keeps people motivated.
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| 3 | C.C. SOLDIERS
ID: 1611332923
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 12:09
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I'd have to say experience will serve as one of the most valuable tools. Another is understanding game rules, etc. I'm sure I'd do well at any sport whether I know it or not. I recall reaching top 200 in Hockey before I quit playing. Thats not all that great but I've never watched a hockey game in my life. And maybe if I had kept playing, I would have finished higher. Experience plus understanding how the game works. I dont think many people put much time in actually understanding the games before playing.
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| 4 | WonderB
ID: 151022310
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 12:40
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i knew little of shaq when i first started playing 5 years ago, possibly couldn't tell you what team he was on. it was my friend MAIN EVENT that got me into it. he was the real fan.
now i subscribe to TV channels if they show one basketball game per year. main event and i talk smallworld daily over coffee. this makes the game very interesting when you have a friend and rival to talk too.
anyway, it is definitly about experience. learning the in's and outs. getting a feel for good value and avoiding flash in the pans.
i've learned you can't play and plan around 'the trade week'. having 0 trades and waiting for tuesday is no good. that is probably the biggest improvement i've made to my game this year and the reason i'm up where i am and not in the 500's like ussual.
aka The Wonderboy or 1derboy
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| 5 | Gman15
Dude
ID: 1531677
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 12:46
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Species post reminds me of the Ghostbusters' lines "We've got the tools, we've got the talent!"
"It's Miller time."
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| 6 | Deadeyes
ID: 51137210
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 14:53
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It's pretty simple actually. If we were to get rid of all the message boards you would have a much better shot. The secret to success in this game is basically to do whatever everyone else does. this is my first time playing and i am goign to win all 3 of my divisions. Every time i try to deviate from whatever other people i get burned on the money and sometimes the points. If you keep a guy to when they need to traded you lose a lot of money as well. I think it is impossible to win without the message boards.
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| 7 | Deadeyes
ID: 51137210
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 14:54
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i dont use the sortables or the assimulator very often and i do fine.
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| 8 | Deadeyes
ID: 51137210
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 14:58
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You might want to try to listen to the song by Orff. It will help stimulate your thoughts and get you high before you make a trade. You will very superior and good about your decision.
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| 9 | Blooki
ID: 1561512
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 15:03
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Actually my teams have been doing much better ever since I've cut back on frequenting these boards. Relying more on the Sartibles than the boards allows you to avoid hyped players in favor of those more likely to produce TSNP-wise.
I think a huge addition this year has been the ownership numbers. Just by looking at those, it's quite easy to predict who are going to be the big movers and also who to get or not get to differentiate.
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| 10 | Gmoney
Donor
ID: 5810561615
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 15:17
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I found that I personally do better at sports where I could care less about the results of games. I am a big NFL football fan. I only follow other sports to have some form of entertainment during the off season.
While I still do ok and even win from time to time in fantasy football or pick-em style leagues, I often find my feelings getting in the way of who I have on my team or who I want to see do well - or poorly.
Of course everybody is different, but I personally find that my best chances of doing well in fantasy or pick-em leagues are in leagues other than football(my most knowledgeable sport).
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| 11 | eyerule/u
ID: 101582014
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 16:04
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The secret to my success is this:
If I have a bad year, I get a different monkey or a different set of darts. Sometimes I may even take the blind fold off of him. Definitely keeps me from getting hit with the darts.
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| 12 | Deadeyes
ID: 50104029
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 17:03
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Orff - Fortuna
BA BA BA BA BA... BA BA BA... BA BA BA BA... BA BA BA BA BA.. DA DA DA DA DA... DA DA DA DA .. DA DA DA ... DA DA DA... DA DA DA..
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| 13 | Footwedge
ID: 61181116
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 17:31
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Deadeyes is correct. You must have a certain degree of lemming to succeed at this game. If you hold until statistics say to trade you will get buried in $$$ losses from the anxious tradaholics. I don't think it's possible to succeed without reading the boards and following at least some of the trains.
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| 14 | Mike D
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 21:16
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Blooki, are you talking about ownership numbers......from the boards? Or is TSN supplying that info to you?
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| 15 | Blooki
ID: 1561512
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 21:17
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Talking about RSF's tool(s). Also TSN teaming with FoxSports to supply them as well.
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| 16 | Mike D
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 21:20
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Just curious due to your opening sentence of post 9. But I get the drift.
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| 17 | rockafellerskank
Dude
ID: 27652109
Fri, Feb 20, 2004, 21:30
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I'll stick $0.02 in. [if you'll take advice form a 892 WWR playyer]
1) I think some luck somes into play. I'm the same person and I've run multiple teams in the same season based on the same knowledge and seen them finsh 1000's of points apart.
2) Planning. You can do all the research you want, but you have to think ahead of the game and anticipate situations. Be pro-active rather than reactionary. I can tell you that last season was pretty good for me and I knew 10-14 days in advance ALWAYS where 3/4 of my trades were going to go. I rarely looked at current weeks / schedules. I was frequently on the train during fabrication as opposed to in motion.
3) I think you have to build some $$$ early, but then focus on points. I've had many high finishes and have never ever had cash in the top 10. Sometimes you have to have some $0 gains because you found the gem BEFORE the rest of the world.
4) There is no substitute for time. Last year I spent time. This year, I check in 1X per day if I think about (due to my work). I'm 890 WWR lower.
Good Luck.
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