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Subject: RIHC Draft Rationales 2004/05
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Oct 13, 2004, 23:59
This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Hoops Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.
Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)
2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.
Please post your comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.
If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale.
3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.
The general format should be:
1.01 Kevin Garnett, F, MIN
Several sentences of rationale.
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| 1 | Coldwater Coyotes
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 11:32
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1.01 Kevin Garnett F MIN
What can one say about him that has not already been said..."he does everything for the Timberwolves except sell pop-corn" is one quote.
I had the opportunity of picking him last year but mistakenly I opted to take a center.
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| 2 | Doug
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 11:33
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1.02 Tim Duncan, C, SAS
Well, I took the #2 slot before doing a FULL analysis of the draft... in retrospect I might have preferred to slide down a bit to improve my second-round position. I figured there was a small outside chance that KG would slip to #2 (if coldwater was really set on Kobe or drafting a C), and I also thought that maybe I could trade this pick to someone who ended up farther down in the first round. In the end, none of the above happened... yet I'm still happy with what I got.
There were a number of appealing options, such as Kobe and T-Mac... however I feel they at best match Duncan performance-wise, but do not surpass him. So to me it came down to C-eligiblity. Were Duncan not C-eligible, I would have taken Dirk over Kobe or T-Mac for the same reason... I had Dirk last year and came in second overall.
I don't particularly like/dislike Duncan... he's rather bland, and there are defintely sexier picks to be made, but fantasy-wise I think TD at #2 makes the most sense. His weak spot is FT%... though he's not as much of a drain as Shaq or Big Ben. Last year was 60%, but his career average is 70%. In fact, he shot 80% in 01-02! I truly believe that Duncan had an off year last season, and that we haven't seen his best statistical performance yet. Here's hoping that this is the year! =-)
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| 3 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 052347519
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 11:33
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1.03 Dirk Nowitzki, C, DAL
When I chose the third pick, I did this with the intention of getting Dirk. Yet, I still wavered a bit when it came time to pick. We all expect Kobe's numbers to go up with the loss of Shaq, but the same holds for Nowitski. With Nash, Antoine, and Jamison out of the picture, I expect big things from him this year.
And, when it comes right down to it, there are not a lot of solid fantasy centers; to get one that produces across all categories like he does was too much to pass up.
One lingering seed of doubt though - in two different competitive leagues last year I had the 2nd and 3rd picks. The one in which I had the 2nd (the RIHC qualifier) I got KG and won handily. The other I had the 3rd pick, drafted Dirk, and finished poorly - so here's hoping that isn't a harbinger of things to come. (And, oddly enough, I chose Nash with my second pick on that team...)
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| 4 | Dave R
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 11:33
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1.04 Kobe Bryant, G, LAL
When choosing my draft position, I opted for the highest position left ( 4th ) with the hope Kobe would still be available. Although I briefly considered Tmac, I knew Kobe was the one I wanted all along and feel he actually could have warranted being picked 2nd.
Without Shaq in LA land I feel Kobe is in line for a monster year. Kobe is a true 8 category player. Looking for 30 pts, 6 rb, 6 assts, 2 steals, 1 block, decent percentages and an increase in 3's this year.
My main concern is any recurring shoulder problems, or any other injury for that matter. All in all, I felt Kobe was to good to pass at #4.
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| 5 | blackjackis21
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 11:34
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1.05 Tracy Mcgrady, G, HOU
I was glad to "sneak" into the top 5 picks when two folks ahead of me picks slots out of the top 5. I briefly considered #11 or #12, as I felt there was a drop-off after the top 13/14 players, but decided to go with the #5-spot thinking I would have a shot at either Kobe or T-Mac. I briefly considered Shaq (think he'll have a great year), but couldn't get past the FT% issues, and Kirilenko.
I'm hopeful that the change of scenery for McGrady will give him a re-newed attitude and sense of motivation. His quantity of shots (and points) and perhaps rebounds may take a bit of a hit, but I'm hopeful that his quality of shots (FG% and three's) and assists tick up a hair as his opponents need to focus on the middle slightly more than they did for Orl. last year. It's a big if, as he's missed at least 6 games in each of the last three years, but if he can stay healthy for the majority of the season his all-around game should keep me happy.
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| 6 | RecycledSpinalFluid
Dude
ID: 41831612
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 12:41
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1.06 Elton Brand, F, LAC
The first five picks are no brainers, after that, the next five are fairly interchangable. I considered Brand, Marion, Kirilenko and even Yao.
Why not the others:
AK47: I wonder how the new players around AK47 will change his numbers.
Marion: Wonderful player, but declining percentages worry me. Brands numbers are equal or more in the catagories I was looking for here.
Yao: Tough, tough call for me. I think Yao is going to go huge this year, but I just couldn't pull him this early.
Brand is Mister Consistency. 20ppg-10rpg-2bpg-3apg. I'll take that night in and night out. The downside is you know he's going to miss 10 games. His percentages put him to the top of my list.
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| 7 | Rand
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 12:43
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1.07 Andrei Kirilenko, F, UTA
I really wanted Kirilenko and was concerned that he would be taken with the sixth pick. The top 5 seemed fairly certain to me but I had no idea who RSF would take with his selection. Brand is a great choice but I had him last year and wanted to go a different direction. So I nabbed Kirilenko because he's a swiss army knife/multi tooled STUD who provides instant balance across the board. His percentages are fine, but the blocks and steal numbers are dazzling. There is some concern that he may lose some boards as he shifts to the small forward spot, but hopefully increases in the scoring stats will help alleviated any REB losses.
Combined with an elite PG in the second round (preferably Marbury or Francis, but Baron will do in a pinch), starting the draft with a guy like Kirilenko is very comforting indeed.
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| 8 | Mike D
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 12:45
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1.08 Shawn Marion, F, PHO
While waiting for Rand to pick, I had narrowed my pick to Kirilenko, Marion, and Stojakovic, in that order. I knew Rand would take one of these three, making my job easier by eliminating one. After he took Kiri, I went Marion, mostly due to his consistent production over the last few seasons spanning across the 8 fantasy categories. I love multi-tool players, and Marion is certainly one of the true monster multi-tool guys, contributing in 3s, boards, steals, and blocks in addition to decent scoring. He doesn’t hurt much in FG% either, and is a terrific FT% shooter. I feared a possible production drop for Stojakovic due to Webber coming back, IF Webber actually plays, of course. Peja’s trade demand didn’t sit well with me either, because I wanted as sure a thing as I could find at such a high pick.
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| 9 | Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 13:10
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1.09 Lebron James, G, CLE
I'm sure we have thrown some people by A) Not taking #3 or #4, and B) drafting Lebron who was probably slated a few slots lower in most draft sheets. We lost a lot of sleep over both this pick, and our overall strategy in the opening rounds. We landed the #3 pick if we wanted it. And yes, we have no doubt that Kobe or Dirk would have been a superb start. But theres a few factors that made us pick lower in round 1. Firstly, i would say that there's a bit more depth and equality in round 1 than last year. When you look past KG and TD and maybe Kobe, there isn't anyone that jumped out and said 'i will dominate'. Really, from picks 6-15, there a bunch of players that could have gone in any kind of order.
Also, we found it tough to ignore Lebron's terrific upside this year. This time around, he has not just 1, but 2 bonafide PGs giving him the rock. That can only be good for the areas where King James recieves the ball. We also think its not an insignificant point that the NBA rules for charging have changed this year in favour of the offense. That means Lebron gets to the line more. For someone who's game is centered around going to the hoop, looking to shoot almost 80% from the line, and go there more often this year, that can only be good for us. The full time change to SF should also result in a few more grabs, which would put him in elite Jason Kidd territory in terms of boards from G eligible players.
Factor all this in, and on a bad year we're looking at last year's numbers. On a good year, well...he's almost Kobe. We'll take that at this stage in the 1st round. We didn't hold out much hope that we'd get AK47 or Marion, and Peja was left for the same reasons as Mike D above.
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| 11 | APerfect10
ID: 369168
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 15:01
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1.10 Shaquille O’Neal, C, MIA
Let me preface this be saying that I knew this pick would come under scrutiny as I am well aware that several ‘cheatsheets’ (including Rotowire) have Shaq ranked in the mid 50’s. While some credible services cheatsheets are nice to use, especially in gauging an approximate draft level, they surely are not the fantasy draft bible. I have a minor in statistics and prefer to use my own projections and draft value formula’s. I am not going to get into this too statistically other than obvious comparisons so that I do not tip my draft hand for future rounds. Please be aware that these stats are merely the tip of the iceberg.
At pick #10, the top 2 centers (why is Duncan still listed at C?) were already drafted and I did not consider the remaining Guards/Forwards as good value at this slot. (I will not go into this further as Mike D and Swish City did a good job above) Good centers are at a premium and with rosters requirements set at two centers; finding a good Center is even more valuable.
The only two valid options were Shaq and Yao. I was well aware that the majority of cheatsheets ranked Yao much higher than Shaq; however, I felt that these projections were putting too much of an emphasis on Shaq’s previous year (arguably his worst year in the league and in a much different situation this this year) and the value of one category, FT%.
Let’s compare Shaq’s poorest year versus Yao’s best year:
Player | FG% | FT % | 3PM | REB/G | AST/G | STL/G | BLK/G | PPG
Shaq | 58.4% | 49.0 % | 0 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 21.5
Yao | 52.2% | 80.9 % | 0 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 17.5
Looking at these numbers, Shaq has a clear advantage in every statistical category minus free throw’s. In a league of 12 members, let’s assume that Shaq’s advantages net you 1 spot in the standings. That’s + 1 FG%, +1 REB, +1 AST, +1 STL, +1 BLK, +1 PPG. Now, I am sure that Shaq will not gain you 1 spot in every category. For example, steals, the category he has the smallest advantage he will be lucky to push you up one spot; However, there are several categories Shaq could easily push you 2 or even 3 spots up. So a conservative guesstimate of Shaq’s advantages net you 6 spots. Is Shaq’s horrendous FT% going to push you down 6 spots? In a league of 12 players with roster’s of 10 starting players, 6 spots is entirely possible, probably worst case. So even in their worst cases, assuming Shaq’s poorest year versus Yao’s best year and assuming the biggest/smallest gain in standings from each player I see a worst case of Shaq & Yao being essentially tied.
Looking at this year, Shaq has found a new home in Miami. He is in better shape and more determined then ever. 25 pounds lighter in a conference/division that has no players who can match up with him defensively, he should clearly dominate the conference. Last year, Shaq was under utilized since the team had essentially 4 Hall of Famers. This year will be different and I expect Shaq’s PPG average to return to previous levels in the mid 29’s. FG% may take a dip with increased shots; however, I would expect Shaq’s rebounds to increase slightly.
The fact of the matter is, Shaq is the most dominant Center in the game and at worst is a statistical dead heat between himself and Yao in the fantasy arena. For this upcoming year, Shaq clearly has the higher ceiling IMHO and therefore was the obvious selection.
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| 12 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 15:42
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1.11 Yao Ming, C Hou
When selecting draft order, once it became clear that I'd be selecting near the end of the first round, I decided that the strategy for my first two picks would be to work on blocks and assists, two of the categories that are likely to be more difficult to amass after the first 3-4 rounds. I have Duncan, Dirk and Yao ranked as the top 3 centers, way ahead of #4. While there are more prolific shot blockers, they all come with serious flaws. In fact, I don’t have Shaq ranked as a good value in the first 4 rounds (due not only to his notorious FT shooting, but also durability concerns. For that matter, I don’t think I've ever seen a team with Shaq win a competitive fantasy hoops league. APerfect10 will need to live up to his name.)
I knew that that Dirk and Duncan would be long gone, but expebted that Yao would still be available at the end of round 1. However, I thought that whoever had the 12th pick (which turned out to be HoopsKlyce) might take Yao as one of the two picks on the turn. So, I chose the 11th pick thinking that it was the latest I could safely wait to get Yao. In round 2, I'll work on assists, when I expect that I'll have a choice from among 2 or 3 top candidates.
Yao's greatest strength may be his lack of FT% weakness (for a center). There aren’t many shot blockers who won't seriously impede the FT category. He's also proven to be pretty durable with 82 GP in each of his first two years – admittedly a small sample., but a good omen nonetheless. While it remains to be seen how McGrady interacts with him, it can’t be much worse than Francis last year. When you add 80% FT shooting to 10 boards, 2 blocks, and close to 20 ppg, Yao gives me solid big man stats without dictating that all of my other picks have to be able to shoot free throws. And overall, I have Yao ranked #13, so a pick at #11 isn't a stretch when viewed through my rose colored glasses.
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| 13 | hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 59923214
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 16:57
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1.12 Peja Stojakovic, F, SAC
Peja was the highest ranked player on my depth chart. I like his ability to make an impact in the trey category and still shoot good FG%. I did think about the impact that Webber may have on him but thought as the 12th pick that discount was taken care of. I am not too concerned about his potential trade. I think like Ray Allen he would just keep going.
2.01 Paul Pierce, G, BOS
Once again, Pierce was clearly the best player available according to my depth chart. However I had some concerns that he was more similar to Peja than I would care for. I actually gave serious consideration to Amare Stoudamire, something I am sure the league would have thought was too bold considering were he ended up going.
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| 14 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 17:56
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2.02 Stephon Marbury, G, NY
Once HoopsKlyce took Peja as his 1st round pick, I figured that Marbury would make it back to me. He wouldn’t take two guards, would he? Pierce was also out there, and if HoopsKlyce took Marbury, I'd have taken Pierce. But Marbury fits my plan to go after assists, even though I do have Pierce ranked slightly higher overall. HoopsKlyce ended up taking Pierce, so I got my first choice.
With Jamaal Crawford joining the Marbury-Houston backcourt in NY, one wonders whose minutes will have to give. I'm betting it isn't Marbury. He provides a very nice combo of points and assists, and I rank him as the top PG. I did consider trying to trade down to a later 2nd round pick, as there are a lot of PGs who are rated just a notch below Stephon, but I decided not to get cute and get the top guy when available.
I do note that many of the pundits rank Baron Davis higher than Marbury, but my ranking system always seems to heavily punish poor shooters, and Baron's FG% and FT% are well below average – even for a guard. Meanwhile, Marbury's percentages are above average for a guard. If you ignore the percentage categories, then I'd also prefer Baron. But they can't be ignored. And durability is another concern with Baron, who has missed 47 games over the last two seasons. If those two both play 82 games, it becomes a very close call, even with Baron's shooting deficiencies.
Ray Allen was a tempting option, but I decided to stick with the plan I outlined in my round #1 rationale, and get a PG.
Now I sit back and watch 20 good players get snatched away before I can pick again. This will be painful.
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| 15 | APerfect10
ID: 369168
Thu, Oct 14x, 2004, 18:24
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2.03 Ray Allen, G, SEA
After taking a Center in the first round, my 2nd round pick turned into BPA. Surprisingly, Ray Allen was still available after 14 picks and at #15 I could not pass him up.
I compose several different projections/rankings based on varying data and I had Allen ranked at the lowest #7 and the highest #12. To get him at #15 was a steal IMHO. He is as consistent as they come and continues to produce regardless of the team he is on. After drafting Shaq, his insane FT% is a major boost for my team and precisely what the doctor ordered.
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| 16 | Edgar
ID: 1792634
Fri, Oct 15, 2004, 03:59
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2.04 Steve Francis, G, Orl
Before picking up Lebron with our first pick we looked ahead at who we would be able to pick in the second round. We figured that at least one of Jermo or Ben Wallace would get to us. But the guy we targetted before starting the complete draft was Steve Francis. In the end it came down to comparing Stevie and Jermo.
Jermo is a great shotblocker and rebounder. On the other hand his FG% was terrible for a big man last year. While this can certainly improve, his ailing knees provide you with another concern. Third thing about Jermo we did not like is the fact he lost his C eligibility, which he will not get back very easily with Foster around. Our conclusion was that Jermo does not have the upside we would like from a pick, he will be good, but probably not improve a great deal from last year. Strond point however is that Jermo makes a nice fit with Lebron, the main reason for considering him at this spot.
On the other hand we have mister Franchise being held short on a leash by the coach fantasy player must dislike somewhat: Jeff van Gundy. Van Gundy halfcourt type of slow bball hurts fantasy players like Francis who thrive in the open floor. We will see how Jeff will take care of Mr TMac this year Bj!).
Steve now is released from this coach and finds a new home in Florida allowing him to do all the things he was not allowed to do in HOU: run the floor, dish the ball, dominate and take a couple of ill advised shots every now and then. We felt like he will regain his previous status as a fantasy stud with likely a 20 ppg, 5 rebs and 6 asssists season. Adding a bunch of steals and some 3s. Concern is his poor FG% which can hurt us down the stretch. He might take more shots but playing more in open court might help him in that department.
In the end we decided Steve has more upside and we took the fact we had two similar players aboard for granted.
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| 17 | Mike D
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Fri, Oct 15, 2004, 11:43
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2.05 Jermaine O’Neal, F, Ind
While waiting for our Euros to pick, I had narrowed my pick to Francis, Jermo, B. Davis and Cassell. After Francis was taken, I struggled a bit, which must mean I might have grabbed the Franchise. Taking B. Davis is a draft changer due to his horrible percentages. Especially the free throws. I also have mixed feelings about his new conference. Some good defense teams like Houston and San Antonio will be frequent opponents, though he also gets to go nuts against the likes of Dallas. I had trouble justifying Cassell at this spot for a variety of reasons (age, possible injury, etc). I felt Jermo was as close to a sure thing as I could find here, and with an early 2nd round pick, that’s what I was hoping to find. Plus, I love that he is a huge shot blocker who gives me big points and big rebounds to boot. I wish he was still Center-eligible, but if he was, he may not have been here at # 17.
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| 18 | Rand
Donor
ID: 083231216
Fri, Oct 15, 2004, 12:00
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2.06 Baron Davis, G, NOR
In the second round I carelessly broke my pre-draft vow that I would not go for High-risk players early. With his injury risks, and his horrible percentages (4o% FG, 67% FT), it is probably wiser to avoid Baron completely. I had considered Miller, but I was worried about falling quickly behind in the total Points cat, plus it would be a little weird drafting two white guys in a row. I also looked hard at Iverson and Wallace, who both had pros and cons, not unlike Baron. The guy I was 'this' close to picking was Amare, but I decided to take a gamble that he might still be around by the middle of the Third.
I'm just hoping Baron Davis gives me a full healthy season, percentages be damned, and watch the Pts, 3s, steals, and assists start rolling. Perhaps I can find a way to pull up the percentage categories despite Baron dragging them down. I think I got a good start by taking Redd in the Third.
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| 19 | RecycledSpinalFluid
Dude
ID: 204401122
Fri, Oct 15, 2004, 13:58
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2.07 Brad Miller, C, SAC
Position scarcity, position versatility and player movement on Sactown were all factors in my decision to go with Miller (even if slightly early).
I expect Webber to miss his mandatory 20-40 games, so a nightly double double will be on order. Also, since the Sactown O runs through the center, he should maintain that nice 4+ assists per game.
Also considered Big Ben Wallace and Me-myself-and-Iverson, but Ben's FT% is Shaq-esqe and Iverson's all out style of play and poor FG% pulled him from my wish list.
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| 20 | blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 034837521
Fri, Oct 15, 2004, 15:01
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2.08 Ben Wallace, F, Det
This was one of the few picks so far where I wasn't sweating it out as it got closer to my turn. I would have been happy with any of the picks that preceded this one, and might have slightly preferred Ben to B. Miller. Ben pretty much owns a few categories (blocks and rebounds) and also contributes with decent steals #'s, especially for a Center if he gains eligibility there. Certainly Ben leaves much to be desired from the charity stripe, but I'm hopeful it's nothing insurmountable as he only takes about 1/4 the free throws that someone like Shaq does.
Also, he's just one of those hard-working guys that I love to watch.
Hair.
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| 21 | Dave R
Leader
ID: 052347519
Fri, Oct 15, 2004, 20:46
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2.09 Allen Iverson, G, Phi
I had hoped that Big Ben or Brad Miller would be available at this spot but both were taken. I also briefly considered Amare but thought he migh be available in the next round ( wrong ).
I then looked to guards and considered Nash and Cassell. I am intrigued by AI's conversion to point guard and am hoping he can come close to equal them in assists. He'll no doubt get more streals and score more points.
Maybe as PG he'll shoot a higher FG% and just maybe he'll make it through the season injury free.
Yeh, right ;)
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| 22 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Fri, Oct 15, 2004, 20:57
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2.10 Steve Nash, PG, Dal
Well, I didn't realize it until after the fact, but apparently I broke one of the cardinal rules by drafting two white guys in a row. But, at least neither Nash nor Nowitzki are American, so maybe my team won't be cursed.
Coming into this round of picks (2.10 and 3.3) I knew I wanted at least a point guard and then a big man or all around contributor. Seeing as both managers who pick after me already had top big men, I figured I'd get a point guard with this pick before they got a chance. I debated between Nash and Cassell and opted for the Canadian over the extra terrestrial. I think I can count on Nash for more dimes and treys in addition to his stellar ft%.
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| 23 | Doug
ID: 57352917
Fri, Oct 15, 2004, 21:32
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2.11 - Chris Webber, PF, SAC
I don’t like to take risky picks early in the draft, so normally I’d pass on someone like Webber. However, I simply felt his talent level was too high to pass on him here, particularly in light of the reports I’ve read that he’s in his best condition in years.
Yes, he does still have occasional swelling in his knee and we all know his history, but I think with another couple weeks of pre-season he will be good to go. I don’t need him to play all 82 games to be a good pick at this point... even if I can only get 70 or so out of him I think he's a steal. The potential downsides are the obvious injury risk and the fact he compounds the FT% risk that I took with Duncan in the first place... but this was something I hoped to address with my next pick. The only other player I considered here was the high FT% PG-Alien Cassell, but there were also some other good PGs available out there so I had reasonable hope Cassell would fall through to my next pick. Even if not, I wanted to trust my ratings, which had Webber well ahead of Cassell or anyone else still available.
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| 24 | Coldwater Coyotes
ID: 422281412
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 11:44
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2.12 Zach Randolph, F, Por
I had Randolph penciled in for this pick. One can expect
20pts and over 10 rebounds again this year with a good FG% and
a surprisingly high FT%. Any improvement in defense will be a
big plus. The only other player that I considered was
Stoudemire who will put up better numbers in Blocks and Steals
but will have a lower FT% but Garnett gives me some leeway in
the Blocks category.
3.01 Kirk Hinrich, G, Chi
The problem of having the first pick in this snake draft is
that 22 players will be taken between each of my picks. This
means that I am probably taking players higher than they are
usually ranked but they fit my needs and my whims. This is the
case with Hinrich who probably should be a middle 4th. round
pick rather than a high third round pick. However I needed a
good PG which is a scarce commodity. My choice came down to
two second year options Wade and Hinrich who both had very
promising first years. Wade will be helped by having Shaq but
there is the slight possibility he will be moved to an SG. Hinrich
no longer has Crawford in Chicago and that seals the deal for
me.
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| 26 | Doug
ID: 422281412
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 11:50
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3.02 - Sam Cassalien Cassell, PG, MIN
I was ecstatic (ok, maybe that's a bit strong, but quite happy) to see Cassell make it around the turn. I knew I wanted a PG here, and Cassell’s %s are stellar which was something I needed (especially FT%). I needed 3s as well, but there are a lot of guys who shoot 3s, but not a lot who shoot near 90% FTs, so I felt this was the priority to address with this pick. That issue aside, I had him ranked as one of the top 4 players available in his own right, so the choice was really quite easy.
If Cassell had not been available, I might have considered tanking the FT% category (like I did last year with assists) and drafting Walker. I didn’t want to do that this early in the draft though, especially given Walker’s horrid FG%. The only other player I really gave any thought to was Vinsanity.
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| 27 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 219581610
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 12:58
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3.03 Amare Stoudemire, F, PHO
This'll probably be the last pick of the draft where I had so many can't-miss options. I ended up going with the player who I thought would have the most upside. I expect close to 20pts and 10 boards per game, but Amare has the potential (as he showed late last year) of 25 and 15 and 2 blocks. Right now, he's only eligible at PF, but it sounds like he'll be spending some time at center - should he gain center eligibility, he would have been a steal at this point in the draft.
Other players I seriously looked at included Gasol and Anthony. Less seriously, I looked at VC and Redd, but I really felt I needed a big man at this point before their ranks dwindled any more.
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| 28 | Dave R
ID: 169591610
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 12:59
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3.04 Pau Gasol, F, MEM
After drafting 2 top tier guards, I obviously had to focus on a big man. I had hoped Amare would be waiting for me but Slack grabbed him. I briefly considered Ilgauskas and Boozer but opted for Pau.
Hopefully he can raise his game this year to the level he displayed in the Olympics. Maybe this is the year Hubie will abandon his ten deep rotations.
I'm looking for 19 ppg, 9 rb/game, 150 blocks, adequate %'s, and some assists and steals.
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| 29 | blackjackis21
ID: 20901611
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 13:00
|
3.05 Richard Jefferson, F, NJN
To be honest, I wasn't real happy with my options at this point in the draft. Perhaps I should have looked harder at trading up or down a few spots. I would really have like Sam Cassell, but he was gone a few picks ago.
With T-Mac and Big Ben on my team so far, I wanted a player that would likely contribute greatly in FG%. Given his increased role in the NJ offense this year, there's likely no way that RJ can maintain his stellar 50% from the field from the past two seasons, but I'm looking for something around 45% with lots of points and rebounds, and a few assists, steals and three's thrown in for good measure.
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| 30 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 42911611
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 13:01
|
3.06 Vince Carter, G, TOR
Deliberated quite a bit on this one. I had Micheal Redd slated for this pick from the start of the draft. Also considered Mike Bibby, as well as Jason Terry. Interestingly, Redd and Bibby went immediately afterwards.
Why Vince? I'm a sucker for what he used to be. That and I think that the uptempo offense put in by Sam Mitchell is going to play to Vinsanity's game. The Toronto team is better than he is whining about...shut up and play!
Vince's position diversity (he has G/F, but should also get SF or SG) are attractive. His FG% was down last season, but I suspect he will gravitate toward his career 45%. His assists were way up, but I'd expect atleast 4apg, which is inline with his career avg.
The big draw back is attitude and injury history. I'll take the risk.
|
| 31 | Rand
ID: 41921611
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 13:02
|
3.07 Michael Redd, G, MIL
Michael Redd is a champion. Does anything else need to be said? Well, I feel like I've got Ray Allen with the 31st pick of the draft. His shooting percentages are good and, in particular, his 87% FT success helps to somewhat alleviate Baron's deficiencies in this area. I think Redd's star is still rising and his numbers could be even tastier this year. I was fortunate that RSF took Vince or I would have probably felt obliged to take Air Canada. But having Baron Davis and Vince Carter on the same team would've been just too much to take. And I'm not so young any more. I feel very fortunate to get Michael Redd at this point in the draft.
|
| 32 | Mike D
ID: 40931611
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 13:03
|
3.08 Mike Bibby, G, Sac
After drafting 2 forwards, I knew I needed to grab a guard here. I didn’t want to limit myself to either a PG or SG either. But, I knew I was deficient in assists, and would like to fill that need. I was slightly surprised that I had so many good choices. Arenas, A. Miller, Bibby, and Terry were all still on the board, among others (Wade). Trying to differentiate and pick one was hard. I ended up choosing Bibby. He not only filled my assist need, he also contributed very well in 3’s, both percentages, steals, and points. Basically I felt he did more across the board than any of the others, and as I mentioned previously, I love multi-tool guys. The more categories the better, especially with little to no glaring weaknesses.
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| 33 | Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 14:09
|
3.09 Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C, CLE
When you draft 2 Gs to start with, even stud ones, it automatically puts you in a situation where you need a good big man to bring a bit of karma and balance back to your team. We had it projected that we could have grabbed Z with our round 4 pick, although it would have been close. Bearing in mind that Cs always go a bit earlier than they should, it made sense to take him here. We had a queue of about 6 power players we liked in rounds 3 and 4, and Z seemed the most likely to be gone if we had waited. We were pretty confident at least one of the others would get back round to us.
Z should be consistently good this year. He was a bit of a talisman for us in RIHC last year when we traded for him, and we don't see any good reason for his performance to fade. If you check out Z's post All Star Break performance, he elevated his game in a big way. Although his rebounds are not the strongest for a starting C, there's little else to complain about with 50%FG, 79%FT and an almost Theo Ratliff-esque 3.0 blocks. 162 of 164 games in the last 2 years also shows he's developed some durability. I don't think there's an awful lot of potential improvement, but we would be extremely satisfied with a repeat performance. We've now picked up the #1 and #2 options from the Cavs. Let's hope that's a good omen.
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| 34 | APerfect10
ID: 26981219
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 15:01
|
3.10 Corey Maggette, SG/SF, LAC
Another pick using the BPA draft strategy. In my projections, I had him ranked everywhere from 12th - 23rd so getting him at pick #34 overall was extremely good value.
Last year, in his first year starting, Maggette was solid but not excellent across the board and gives decent assist #'s, 3's and FT%'s for a forward. The flexibility of both Guard/Forward are a plus and his high FT% help offset my first round selection of Shaq.
I like the fact that Maggette has not fully realized his entire potential and I would expect to see his statistics increase once again this year.
|
| 35 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 16:16
|
3.11 Carlos Boozer, F, Utah
With my first two picks, I took a center (Yao) and a PG (Marbury). With the next two, I want a solid rebounder, and probably another PG – or at least another source of assists.
Since the guy who picks between my next two (HoopsKlyce) has Peja and Pierce, I suspect he'll be looking for a big man as well, so I decided to attack that need first. Boozer looks to be the most prolific rebounder left on the board. Although he has a change of scenery this year, I don't think his game is that dependent on those surrounding him. Last year he produced 15ppg, 11 boards, a steal, and .7 blocks. But he also brings those stats without a hit in FT%, where he shot almost 77% last year. Add that to Yao's 80% and I have a lot of room to be less fussy about FT shooting for the rest of this draft.
Last year, my 3rd round pick, Matt Harpring, raised a few eyebrows. He didn’t quite live up to my expectations early on, and then when he got injured, the pick turned out to be a total bust. With that in mind, it's a little unnerving to be selecting a Utah forward in round 3. However, I don’t think Boozer is a stretch at this point, so I'm sticking with it. [subsequent note: I later realized that Harpring was actually my 4th round pick last year. Never mind... ]
I will confess that, as a native of Ohio, Boozer's move to Utah was a bit bothersome. But there are no fantasy deductions for moral turpitude – and, after all, the NBA is never going to be confused with a group of choirboys.
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| 36 | hoopsklyce
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 16:44
|
3.12 Lamar Odom, F, LAL
With Pierce and Peja as my first two picks, I wanted the next pick to not have a significant part of his value from the three point category. The player on top of my depth chart was Carmelo Anthony but I passed on him since his greatest asset is points and it seems I frequently draft teams with too much strength in points. I already had Pierce and Peja who could score. Another player I considered here was Billips and even Ginobili (who I got over 20 picks later!). I took Odom because he is well rounded although he also can hit nearly a trey a game. My concern with him is Kobe not sharing.
4.01 Andre Miller, G, DEN
I wanted to touch on the assist category without comprimising much on my depth chart. Terry, Billups, and Arenas were candidates and even Wade. I went with Miller since I thought he should get more assists than the others and from his strength in steals last season. The other candidates were ranked along with Miller because of their trey shooting which I did not think I needed. In the same way those with Shaq may want to balance out a FT% weakness, I was trying to balance out Peja's trey strength. I did have a lot of doubts about Miller but am hoping for the best. I have concerns that he may average sub 35 mpg because of the pesky little guy Earl Boykins.
|
| 37 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 16:49
|
4.02 Jason Terry, G, Dal
The plan was to pick a second point guard in this slot. Since my last set of picks, big men seem to have been in vogue. But I think a run on point guards could occur before my next pick, and I want a second quality one.
But first, I looked at the alternatives. Frankly, the most interesting alternative was Antoine Walker. He kills the percentage categories, but can fill up a lot of the others. With Yao and Boozer, I have room to absorb a wayward free throw shooter. But I'm not sure I want to spend all of that on Walker, especially when he's on a completely new (and bad) team. Still, it was an intriguing possibility.
The top of my point guard list shows Arenas, Billups, Terry, and Wade. I have Terry, Arenas, and Billups as pretty much of a statistical dead heat. Wade is a tad behind, but with enough upside potential to pass them all. In a keeper league I might prefer him. Arenas and Wade both had some injury problems last year, and that is a concern. Terry is on a new team, and may be called upon to score less and pass more – which could be good or bad. Part of Billups value is his superb FT%, which may be partly wasted on my roster.
Last year, I took Terry in the 2nd round, and he turned out to be a fair value in that round. This year, on a team with lots of offensive weapons, no one seems to except him to match last year's numbers, expect perhaps in assists. But this is the fourth round, so he doesn’t need to hit last year's marks to be worth it. He should make nice contributions in assists, 3's, and steals, all which I'm looking for.
As I deliberated, I think I talked myself into each of the four PG contenders. In fact, I almost discounted Terry at the outset because of the uncertainties in his change of scenery. But I kept coming back to him, and in the end, I took Terry on a hunch. Arenas would have been the pick otherwise.
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| 38 | APerfect10
ID: 26981219
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 17:19
|
4.03 Carmelo Anthony, SF, DEN
With my fourth selection, I had already drafted a C, G, and SG/SF so I was looking towards the forwards. With the players left on the board, I narrowed my selection down to 3 players.
1. Donyell Marshall
2. Rashard Lewis
3. Carmelo Anthony
Donyell & Rashard are extremely productive year in and year out and do not get much credit. Between these two, I was leaning towards Rashard as he has been slightly better between the two (IMHO).
I was hesitant drafting Carmelo in this slot. Will he fall victim to a sophomore slump? Will he hit the wall mid way through the season due to him playing in the Olympics, etc. There are a ton of questions whether or not Carmelo can even equal his first year output; However, I think Carmelo is of that special breed. Maybe not quite the level of a Lebron, but pretty darn close. His upside is too high for me to pass up in the 4th. There is no doubt in my mind that he'll be a top 10 stud sooner rather than later. I doubt he gets there this year...but I think he could crack the top 20.
To win a highly competitive league such as this, you need to take risks and I felt Carmelo was a risk worth taking...
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| 39 | Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 18:13
|
4.04 Donyell Marshall, F, TOR
After taking a break to grab more of a specialist, it's back to our theme thus far of picking players that can do a little bit of everything. Donyell epitomises this. He is a 7 category monster, with maybe assists being the only slight weakness. Otherwise you have a mini-Marion here. 39 mins last year, and there's no reason for that to change. A contract year for him too, so the effort should be there. And if Vince was traded, he becomes a bit more valuable also.
Boozer or Odom being available here would have made it tough. Arenas was seriously considered, but neither of us liked the prospect of having 3 PGs (aka zero chance in FG%) and no Fs at this stage. Now our hands are untied a bit in terms of the next few picks.
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| 40 | Mike D
ID: 119491617
Sat, Oct 16, 2004, 19:49
|
4.05 Gilbert Arenas, G, Wash
I had my eye on Jason Terry here (thanks for nuthin’, Guru!). I was then leaning toward Donyell Marshall, and my Euro friends committed another nasty and swiped him before my eyes. They are obviously deluded by their newfound quest for the ring.
Anyway, I strongly considered several players for this spot and could have gone many different ways. I went Arenas because his window of possibilities this season is huge and ironically I had almost taken him with my last pick. Nabbing him at # 41 seems like a great value to me, especially when everyone left on the board has their flaws.
His stats from last year were impressive even in relatively limited action (55 games). The Wiz are in a weak division this season and should have some cream puffs on their schedule. It’s Arenas’s team, and I look forward to lots of 3’s, points, assists, steals, and a fair amount of rebounds for a guard. His only drawbacks are health and FG %. With a better grasp of the offense, Arenas figures to see his field-goal percentage rise this season, as he won’t be forced into as many end-of-the-shot-clock rushed situations.
I’m hoping big days are ahead from this outstanding, young (only 22), former SG who is ready to explode. Can you say box score filler?
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| 41 | Rand
Donor
ID: 083231216
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 02:06
|
4.06 Jamaal Magliore, C, Nor
I wanted to ensure I had a quality Center in place before I went any further in the draft. Although I might have waited til the fifth round if one of Arenas, Marshall, or Carmelo hadn't been snagged just before my turn. Magloire is double-double machine and I was starting to worry about my REB numbers and I project him at well over 800 rebounds. So he was a nice fit. However, I would like a few more blocks out him, continued improvement in his scoring and hopefully some increase in his FG%. He's not a bad free throw shooter for a big man though.
|
| 42 | RecycledSpinalFluid
Dude
ID: 204401122
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 02:13
|
4.07 Ron Artest, SF, IND
I call this my "Politician Special" pick, as I flip flopped between Rashard Lewis and Ron Artest about 10 times, all the while one of my projected 3rd round picks and my original 4th rounder were still available. I was to the point that I had Rashard Lewis' name filled in at KKB's site, just waiting for the OK button. Sheesh...the drama.
I was looking to fill the SF slot with this pick and both fit the bill. Basically it came down to Steals over Treys. Its a balance of declining percentages (4 years and running) from Lewis or potential spastic moments from Mr Model-Citizen.
In the end, I couldn't pass on the guy with the third most steals from last season, despite the possibility of a mental meltdown. As long as Dennis Rodman doesn't ask the Pacers for a tryout, I think I'm safe...maybe.
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| 43 | blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 34837521
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 11:13
|
4.08 Rasheed Wallace, FC, Det
I really wanted Jamal Magloire here, but with Rand stealing him from me two picks earlier, I had to look for the next best available Center. With a second round pick of Big Ben, I felt I could afford a Center that will land a few three pointers perhaps at the expense of some rebounds. Rasheed may not see as much time in the middle in Detroit with all the other big men they've got, but he'll still get his minutes and I think will contribute in blocks as well as threes, while scoring some points along the way. He seems to have accepted the team-player role with Larry Brown's gang (why not if it gets you a championship, I guess), so I'm hoping for a nice mellow, productive season from Sheed.
|
| 44 | Dave R
ID: 369391514
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 14:11
|
4.09 Rashard Lewis F Sea
Lewis just seems to be one of those under-rated fantasy players each year.
I like the idea that he can score a bunch of points, grab some boards and give you a bunch of 3's. Playing in an uptempo offense doenst hurt either.
I considered KMart and Jamison here as well but the extra dimension of 3 pointers sold me on Lewis.
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| 45 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 16:25
|
4.10 Michael Finley, GF, Dal
My first four picks have yielded 2 Mavs and 2 Suns... Guess I'll be staying up late this year to watch some western conference games.
My plans for this pick were shot to hell with the last few picks. I had almost picked 'melo with my previous selection (19 picks before this one). Watching him fall as far as he did was excruciating. I then identified Rasheed, Artest, and R. Lewis as my top 3. like I said, my plans were shot to hell; particularly after I had done such a good job of convincing myself that Rashard was the right guy to pick after Wallace and Artest were gone.
I ended up going with Finley in part due to his GF position flexibility. I was also considering Billups or Wade, but figured one of them would drop to my next selection 5 picks later.
|
| 46 | Doug
ID: 422281412
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 19:07
|
4.11 - Chauncey Billups, PG, DET
Chauncey really stood out to me because of his stellar FT% and 3s, both of which I needed. Also, PGs and Cs are usually harder to come by I think, whereas the SG, SF, and PF players seem more plentiful. And I figure you need 2 healthy PGs if you want to try and lead in assists. I was sort of eyeing Van Horn, but I didn't want to press my luck with Billups like I did last time around with Cassell, so I took the chance to nab him while I could. I think he's a great fit for my team.
|
| 47 | Coldwater Coyotes
ID: 422281412
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 19:26
|
4.12 James Posey, F, Mem
Last season Posey put up very good Roto numbers
especially at the end of the season. There is no reason why he
should not continue this performance particularly as the team
failed to sign a top Center. While Memphis has depth, Hubie
Brown clearly likes Posey and so he will get the minutes.
5.01 Jamal Crawford, G, NY
Last year Marbury played an average of 39mins for NY, Houston 36mins and Hardaway 29mins. Crawford will get his minutes either from Houston who is unlikely to be fully fit for the season and/or at the expense of Hardaway. Furthermore NY fans will demand that Crawford plays 30+ mins as: a) more than likely a Marbury led NY will have a bad year and changes to the NY line up will be demanded, b)Houston will get the crowd boos in response to his performance not living up to his high salary, c) Isiah Thomas will need to justify the signing of Crawford and d) the NY will love the acrobatics of Crawford.
If he plays for 30+ mins I expect 15PG, 3RPG, 4.5APG, 100 steals, 135 3Pts, 25 blocks, 40%FG and 82%FT. Apart from the FG% these are excellent numbers for a guard. |
| 48 | Doug
ID: 422281412
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 19:30
|
5.02 - Keith Van Horn, SF, MIL
I was very suprised to see Antoine Walker still around in the 5th round... very suprised. I had Walker rated as early-3rd round, but those percentages scared me off (and must have scared others too). Taking Walker would have essentially invalidated a good part of the reasoning for my Cassell and Billups picks (to keep my percentages competitive), so I was hoping someone else with high percentages thus far would finally pull the trigger on him. What hurts my opponent helps me. =-)
A few of the other guys I had been considering for this pick got swiped in the last round... Lewis, Artest, Finley. Sheed... but one remained, and that was Van Horn (thanks for not taking him Cold). His weakest stat is assists, which is the category I think I am strongest in at this point. He helps to shore up my 3s and FT% as well. I think the move to Milwaukee will be great for Van Horn... a much better fit, and I see last year's numbers as his floor rather than ceiling.
In short, I feel Van Horn was a safe pick who fit my team needs well, and he was the best player available in my rankings besides Walker... so this pick was a no-brainer.
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| 49 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 20:16
|
5.03 Dwyane Wade, PG, Mia
This was one of my easier picks to make; I had considered Wade with my previous pick. I'd essentially narrowed it down to Wade, K. Martin, and J. Richardson. Although Martin would offer me help in some of the categories I was lacking in, I figured there was enough depth that I could get the boards and blocks with subsequent picks.
Plus, as he showed in the playoffs last year, Wade has tremendous skills. Basically, to contend in a league like this where all the teams seem to be so evenly matched, you have to have a player or two who far outperforms their projections. And Wade could be such a player particularly with Shaq-Fu on the same team.
|
| 50 | Dave R
ID: 369391514
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 21:51
|
5.04 Samuel Dalembert C Phi
Maybe a bit if a reach here, but a center was in order. I narrowed my choices to Dampier, Blount and Dalembert. Both Dalembert and Blount had terrific season once they became regulars. Dampier has a new team in Dallas.
On a hunch I decided to try Dalembert, who averaged nearly a double double while shooting over 50% with over 2.5 blocks per game after becoming a starter. I'd settle for those numbers although he could improve hi FT%
|
| 51 | blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 34837521
Sun, Oct 17, 2004, 22:46
|
5.05 Antawn Jamison, F, Was
I had Antawn just behind Rashard Lewis and Michael Finley on a list of guys that can do a little bit of everything. With more minutes in Washington this year than in Dallas last year, I'm looking for an improved year from last year's Sixth Man of the Year pretty much across the board. As much of a Cal Ripken, Jr. as there is in the NBA, Jamison hasn't missed a game since 1999 (knocks on wood).
|
| 52 | RecycledSpinalFluid
Dude
ID: 204401122
Mon, Oct 18, 2004, 10:12
|
5.06 Rip Hamilton, G, DET
I was wanting Wade to slip, but no luck. I thought hard about Toine Walker here, but I already have my fill of baseheads with Artest, so I chose to pass. Thought long on the potential of Harrington and Bosh, but in the end, Rip's quality percentages, steals, points and assists won out.
My hope here is that Rip's game will continue to rise, like it did in the post season. Perhaps in his second season being coached by "Pound for Pound" Larry Brown, he will continue to flourish. |
| 53 | Rand
Donor
ID: 083231216
Mon, Oct 18, 2004, 10:48
|
5.07 Kenyon Martin, PF, Denver
I was sure that Antawn Jamison would fall to me for my 55th pick. But I would have 'settled' for Wade, Van Horn or Rip Hamilton instead. In all my scenarios, Kenyon Martin is never around for me to ever contemplate taking him. I was sure he'd be gone. As it turns out those other guys flew off the board and suddenly Kenyon became available to me. I jumped at the opportunity. Martin brings the nasty and toughens up my team. Strong boards (650?), good blocks (100?), decent FG% (48%?) and the dude can score (1,250pts?).
Denver has become a great team and Martin will be an important part of that system. And mine.
|
| 54 | Mike D
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Mon, Oct 18, 2004, 11:22
|
5.08 Theo Ratliff, C, Por
I was kind of glad Rand took Kenyon Martin in the pick ahead of me, because although I didn’t really want him, I might have taken him due to value. I narrowed my choice here to Theo Ratliff and Manu Ginobili. I had a strong feeling that the team behind me (Swish/Edgar) would take Manu (which didn’t occur). Regardless, I didn’t feel that either Ginobili or Theo would make it back to me. So I had to decide.
At pick # 56, I didn’t feel it was too early to take Theo, especially with Dalembert and others already off the board. Theo not only led the league in blocks last year, but he seemed rejuvenated in Portland. Randolph can’t jump over a phone book, and Abdur-Rahim is being pushed further away from the hoop. Theo owns the lane in the back of their defense. He can single-handedly win the blocks category for a team. I felt that pairing him with Jermaine O’Neal who finished 5th in total blocks last year would solidify this category for me. Any future picks who can block shots will just be gravy. Or trade bait.
Theo is a decent rebounder at 7.2 per game and shoots a nice FG %. But his real value lies in being a one category difference maker, a la Juan Pierre in baseball two seasons ago.
|
| 55 | Edgar
Leader
ID: 00458944
Mon, Oct 18, 2004, 11:39
|
5.09 'Big Chicken' Antoine Walker
The grip of the ring must be taking hold. That is the only way you can justify taking someone like 'Toine, who can kill you stone dead in both percentage cats. It is not all bad, though - in fact far from it. I don't think there is anyone else left that can give you the possibility of 200 3s, 9 boards, 5 assists and above 20 points a game. Plus, if he gravitates back to his career average of 1.4 steals, that is also not to be sniffed at. We also concede being somewhat fascinated about Antoine finally getting the #1 option status he has never really had a shot at before. His numbers were pretty darn good playing with Pierce, so is there more in the locker now he has his own team? Another multi-cat contributor - we like. Only missed 6 games in the last 5 seasons - we love.
Secretly, we're praying that he can shoot 42% from the field and even 70% from the line, both of which he has done as recently as 2 years ago. Unlikely, but if it occurs, that makes him a contender for steal of the draft. As it stands, we were shocked to see him drop this far, and he's just too good to pass up, poor %s or not. Our other main contender here was KMart, snatched by Rand 2 picks earlier. Now, if you'll excuse us, we're just heading off to catch up with Frodo and toss our percentage cats into the flaming fires of Mount Doom.
|
| 56 | APerfect10
ID: 369168
Mon, Oct 18, 2004, 12:08
|
5.10 Mark Blount, C BOS
The entire length of time from my last pick to this pick I had targetted Antoine Walker & Theo Ratliff. I did not want to draft Walker but he would've been too good to pass up and Ratliff is like an instant injection of blocks. Once they were taken with the two picks ahead of me I was left searching for another player.
As mentioned previously, with each team requiring two starting centers and with center depth limited I felt I should grab two quality centers. Blount, who had a career year last year, should continue down this same path. With the addition of Payton to Boston's lineup, expect Blount to see more open looks while continuing to get boards. I had Blount ranked as 6 - 8th among qualifying starting centers so I felt I was not reaching drafting him at the end of the 5th round (58 overall).
|
| 57 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 18, 2004, 13:11
|
5.11 Al Harrington, F, Atl
Until 2 picks ago, it looked like Antoine Walker might have slipped to this pick, and if so, I'd have probably taken him. He was looking like good value, and when my ranking system makes someone with bad FT% and bad FG% look like good value, I have to think he's worth it.
But that option is no longer there. Mark Blount would have been my next choice, and, lo and behold, he disappeared as well.
At this point, I have Yao, Marbury, Boozer, and Terry. Two point guards, a forward, and a center. Reasonably balanced for this stage, so I don’t think I need to fill any gaping holes. I was hoping to land another center or forward here, but as I scan down my ranking list, I don’t see a center within shouting distance. The top forwards are Al Harrington and Kenny Thomas. But there are about a dozen guards who I have ranked ahead of them. Is it worth the stretch for a forward? Or should I grab 2 guards at this point, and take my chances with the front line?
Front line players have been moving faster than their raw stats would suggest, presumably due to scarcity value. Scanning down my list, I think that's likely to continue, and if I can grab one who is not a significant reach, I think I should. As I look at various write-ups of Harrington, the consensus seems to call for about 16-17 points and 7 rebounds, but I've seen one writer suggest that 19 and 9 are not out of the question. That's good enough upside for me at this point. On a new team without much surrounding talent, Harrington should have every opportunity to show what he can do. At worst, I think I may be picking him about 10 spots too early. But the risk is that if I wait too long to fill my front line, I might really have to reach.
I'm not sold on this pick, but after stewing over it for about an hour, it's time to move on.
|
| 58 | hoopsklyce
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 18, 2004, 13:26
|
5.12 Manu Ginobili, G, SAS
As Guru was picking I had on my short list Manu, Chris Bosh, and Eddy Curry. Ginobili was at the top of my depth chart and I had actually given him some consideration with my previous pick 22 players ago. I was concerned that other managers knew something I didn't about Ginobili and that was why he was slipped. I suspected concerns about the addition of Brent Barry might have on his playing time might be a factor. I looked up that he had signed a 6 year $52 million contract in the offseason and for that kind of money you should be getting major minutes. So I took him and hope that he can provide some strength for me in steals by averaging over 2 per game.
|
| 60 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 18, 2004, 13:35
|
A new thread has been started for rounds 6-10
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Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
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