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Subject: RIHC Draft 2004/05 - Overall Recap
Posted by: Guru
- [46962416] Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 11:33
Now that the RIHC draft has finished, I'm inviting each of the participants to share any overall reactions that they have. For example (but not limited to):
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
2) What surprised you?
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Outsiders who were not participating in the draft are also welcome to share their general reactions. For handy reference, here is a link to the Draft Results. |
| 1 | Rand
Donor
ID: 083231216
Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 12:21
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I would change #8 to, 'If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league who doesn't own Kevin Garnett, who would you want it be.'
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| 2 | Guru
ID: 46962416
Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 12:32
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1) Overall strategy
I decided upfront to try to adhere to the following three strategies. In general, I feel like I kept to the game plan.- Assuming the average player appears in 72 games (which seems to have been last year's average), this year it will take 14 players to fill up our full allotment of 84 games per slot. With only 15 active players, I decided to focus on players that have shown good durability in years past. That doesn’t assure an injury-free season. But hopefully it will reduce the need to fill in too many games with marginal free agents. Over the course of a season, I think that could be worth a lot.
- Keep my lineup in relative balance as the draft progresses. Inevitably, runs on certain positions will start. By keeping things in balance, I hope to avoid getting caught up in chasing certain needs.
- Be wary of poor shooters. My ranking methodology will probably take care of this. But for most categories, the outliers are skewed to the positive end of the scale. A weak shot blocker can't get less than zero. But in the percentage categories, the outliers are at the negative end. Getting a top shot blocker can automatically put you in the middle of the pack. Getting a top shooter can't do that. But getting a lousy shooter can drag you to the bottom. If I accept a bad shooter, make sure there is more than ample value to offset it.
2) I thought that quality point guards would be chased sooner than they were. But in general, I don't think there were any major surprises.
3) I don't recall ever having to really change my approach. There was a point, midway through the draft, when I realized that I was going to have trouble in blocks. I decided not to dig too deeply just to get shot blockers. I felt that doing so would jeopardize my FT% by more than it would help my blocks. In the end, I think I'm well positioned to be dead last in blocks – probably by a wide margin. As November unfolds, I'll have to figure out whether to concede the category, or whether I might have appropriate resources to extract a meaningful amount of blocks via trade.
4) In general, I don’t think I'd have done anything differently. Perhaps I'd have picked 10th instead of 11th, as AP10 had a habit of snagging guys out from under me. But then, he'd have probably been 11th, and doing the same thing on even rounds, rather than odd rounds.
5) I can’t really identify a best and worst pick on my squad. I think a lot of my players have balanced profiles, rather than spiky ones. If they deliver as expected, I think that will serve me well. In particular, I think my shooting percentages will be a strength. My lowest FT% projection is Jeff Foster, who shot 67% last year. And my worst FG shooters are around 42%.
6) I like Mark Blount, taken by AP10 just before I'd have taken him near the end of round 5. Had I been able to get him, I think I could have come up with a better effort in blocks. It probably would have changed some of my later round picks. Perhaps I should have nabbed Bosh at that point, but for some reason, he wasn't on my short list at that pick.
Antoine Walker, taken just ahead of Blount, could also be a steal, in spite of his low percentages.
7) In the middle of the draft, I thought forwards were going a bit ahead of their time. That prompted me to take Al Harrington at 5.11, even though he wasn't at the top of my list at that point. Meanwhile, I thought point guards were going slower than expected at that point. Looking back at the picks in sequence, it's hard for me to see that now, but I know that's how I felt at the moment.
There were certainly some players that I thought went too early, but I can’t recall them now – other than Shaq, who I commented on extensively in the draft thread.
8) In spite of my reservations about Shaq, I think APerfect10 put together a very strong team, and successfully integrated Shaq's FT% into his profile. I actually have him projected to be near the median in FT%. Overall, I think his team looks very strong across the board.
As of about round 8, I thought HoopsKlyce and Dave R also had very strong teams. I don’t have their later round picks ranked so highly, but if they are right in their assessments, they will be very strong as well. I also like Slackjawed's team a lot.
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| 3 | Mike D
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 12:38
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1. My strategy going in was to try and focus on multi-tool/well-rounded players early on. I figured in a 12 team draft like this that my strategy would likely not be unique, and that I’d probably have to adjust it early. As it is, my strategy lasted 3-4 rounds. I took Marion, J. O’Neal, Bibby, and then Arenas.
2. What surprised me? I was most surprised that a few of the players I was able to draft so late were still on the board. When rationales from 2 rounds prior were mentioning “remaining players being in positional battles,” I was able to nab clear starters David Wesley and Voshon Lenard with the #152 and #161 picks respectively (13.08, 14.05). It was a very pleasant surprise.
3. As things unfolded, my approach changed from the strategy in #1 above (multi-tool) to filling in areas that I was weak in category-wise while also trying not to pass up the best players available. It isn’t always possible to find these combinations, but that was my goal. I had planned to adopt this strategy all along, as mentioned in #1, since I knew multi-tool players would fly off the board. I didn’t want to reach for positions either, and anticipated some people may do that, hopefully opening up the players I was looking for.
4. The only thing I “might” have done differently would be to trade up and grab Jeff McInnis in round 11. I didn’t think he’d make it back to me when I was picking prior, and when he stayed on the board so long I considered making some offers. I decided to see if he’d slide to me, and RSF grabbed him 2 picks prior. However, adding him would have altered the rest of my picks, and I’m happy with how it turned out. So not making a deal may have been for the best, even though it didn’t satisfy my trade needs.
5. I think my best pick may have been Gilbert Arenas at #41 (4.05). I could have gone a lot of different ways with that pick, and took what I believed to be the best player available. I expect a big year from Arenas and felt he certainly could have been drafted much higher. A big value pick in my eyes.
After going back over things, my worst pick on the surface appears to be Jim Jackson at #104 (9.08). I had 2 empty forward spots and I felt the forward crop was really dwindling. I like the pick, as it filled a big need on my team. However, there were certainly some other good players on the board who arguably could become more valuable when this season is over. Time will tell.
6. I really liked the Ginobilli pick at #60 (5.12) by Hoopsklyce. I nearly took him earlier in the 5th round, but went Center/Blocks with Ratliff. I hoped he would get back to me in the 6th round. I’d have taken him. I thought RSF was very smart in taking McInnis at the #126 spot (11.06), and as mentioned, I’d have taken him 2 spots later. I like EuroGollum’s pick of Gerald Wallace at #129 (11.09). I wanted him with my 12th round pick, but it was not to be. Could be a steal in that spot. And I really like another Hoopsklyce pick at #109 (10.01) in Bobby Jackson.
7. Actually, there were a lot of players selected higher than I expected. I think there were several reasons for that. When coldwater took Hinrich at #25 (3.01), I was very surprised, especially in light of the many strong point guards on the board. After closer examination, I attributed it to him being in the tough position of picking on the end of the draft. If you want someone, you gotta grab them, because your next pick is a long time away. So while I understand the reasoning, I am still surprised his choice was Hinrich. Josh Childress really surprised me at #119 (10.11), as did Jamal Magloire at #42 (4.06). Brad Miller at #19 (2.07) seemed a bit ambitious, but I can see RSF feeling Miller may not be there in the 3rd. Didn’t expect Darius Miles to be gone at #82 (7.10).
8. I honestly don’t see much separation among the league at this point. Certainly injuries will play a role as they always do. And I haven’t studied categories of other teams. But from a talent standpoint, things are pretty balanced, IMHO. That being said, no one team jumps out at me as the one I’d most want over any others. I guess my first choices would be those belonging to Guru and Hoopsklyce, but maybe because I’m just so used to seeing them at my end of the draft. And again, I haven’t looked at categories of other teams at this point. Just players.
I just wanted to add that drafting 3rd in the very challenging Elimination Chamber fast draft on October 18 helped me greatly as this RIHC got into its later rounds. The Chamber has 14 teams, and the roster size was 14 players, so 196 players were drafted. I was forced to prepare a much deeper draft sheet than I ordinarily would have had ready at that juncture.
As the RIHC draft unfolded, I had large queues of players I would have been happy with, even including several undrafted players. The depth and quality of GMs in the Chamber provided a huge challenge----and opportunity----and was very helpful to me.
So if my RIHC turns out to be a stinker, I can also blame the Chamber GMs…..
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| 5 | Dave R
Dude
ID: 3010361110
Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 17:49
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1) Overall strategy
As last year I really had no “ game plan “ going into the draft but rather to let the draft unfold and make picks based on what had unfolded, both with my team and in general. I wanted players early on that could contribute in many categories rather than offer a boost in just one or two. I had hoped to avoid players with a previous history of missing games and quickly deviated by choosing Iverson.
2) I really can’t say that anything surprised my, especially after drafting last year. Obviously everyone had done their homework.
3) After the 6th round, I realized that I needed a boost in assists, prompting me to draft a couple of players higher than I felt was warranted.
4) If I could do anything different I might have picked Amare with my second pick rather than hoping he’d slide to my next pick. Not that I’m unhappy with Iverson, but I’d rather a combination of Amare and a different PG rather than AI and Gasol.
5) Best picks- Kobe, although not a shocker. I just expect a monster year from him.
McDyess ( 12 round ) - Time will tell on this but if he stays injury free I think he’s a bargain
Worst pick- If Rashard’s injury lingers that would be my worse pick ( obviously ) I also think I jumped at dalembert early and would have preferred Blount
6) I think Coldwater got an absolute steal with Garnett at the first pick:). I also like Hoops picks of Manu and Gooden ,AP10's pick of Blount ,Swish and Edgars pick of Walker, Guru’s pick of Harrington and BJ's pick of Jamison
7) As far as picks taken to high, I have to throw Jefferson on that list ( sorry Blackjack - I hope I’m wrong ). As a Nets ticket holder I don’t see a lot of good things happening in the Meadowlands this year. Word floating around is Kidd might be out til Jan 1, maybe Feb 1. I know RJ dazzled last year when he was “ the man “, I just wonder if he will again.
8) As with Mike D, I don’t see any teams that really jump out at me and say “WOW”, but if I had to pick one it would be Swish and Edgars, especially once Daniels injury heals and if Hill plays the season.
All in all, I have to add, it’s been a blast and I enjoyed the draft immensely. To paraphrase a TV commercial “ You guys are good “
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| 6 | Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 19:10
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These are not necessarily Edgar's thoughts. I'm sure the better half of EuroGollum will chip in with his own opinions that will completely fly in the face of what i'm saying here :)
1) I don't think i can honestly say we had a real strategy to start with. I think we changed direction a bit when Yao was unavailable in the 2nd round, as its always nice to start off with a G and C or F in the first few rounds. After we took Francis in 2, we really just wanted a solid power player (Z) and then it was case of picking great all rounders. That is something that certainly seems evident in our mid round picks of Marshall, Walker, Daniels and Hill, all of whom should be major contributors in more categories than not.
2) Nothing too major jumps out. Except for Willie Green being available with pick 180. I thought he would have been long gone by then!
3) As i said before, i think we decided to go for as many multi-cat guys as possible. From the guys we have selected i would say we could compensate for losing just about anyone, because we don't have too many specialists but the majority of our picks are good all rounders. We didn't start out that way by intention, but after the top 7 rounds, we seemed to have an excellent core of across the board contributors. Only time will tell whether it works out.
4) Our squad has a lot of players on the comeback trail after injury. Maybe in hindsight, it would have been better to draft some guys who were more of a sure thing. I don't know if we would have taken Hill if he had not just come off his 20-5-6 preseason game or whatever it was. Ask me again in 6 weeks time if our squad are all still standing. I don't think i would really change anything else though. Even if we don't do well, our team will be extremely exciting to follow. I do think that IF our risk picks work out, we have a pretty dangerous team.
5) Best pick..that's tough because i love so many of the players we chose. But probably 'Toine at #57, just because he never should have slipped that far, and i consider us extremely lucky to get him here. He could be our key. Our worst pick could be Ben Gordon. It's hard to argue that 105 is too high, but we saw he was having a lousy pre-season when we picked him. If he cannot turn it around, we might look dumb, dumb, dumb.
6) It looks like Gooden could be a tremendous pick at #87, based on what he has done thus far. Arroyo at #90 also looks like another guy that could blow up this year. And i love Mike D getting Caron Butler at #137, right after we took Josh Howard. He should be a perfect fit in that Kobe-fuelled LA offense. Mike gets another big thumbs up on Gil Arenas at #41, who should be tremendous this year if he can stay healthy.
7) I thought Dalembert went a little too high at #52, but i can understand why Dave took him there, as there's no way he's making it back to him at the tail end of round 6. I was also quite surprised at Iguodala and Kaman going at the top of round 10.
8) Guru looks good, he has put a lot of effort in keeping his percentages high, meaning he can chase quantifiable stats a bit later if he needs to. Mike D is the other squad that made an initial impression - he seems to have strength across the board.
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| 7 | APerfect10
ID: 26981219
Tue, Oct 26, 2004, 20:33
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1) As with any draft that I participate in, my first and foremost draft strategy is to not reach on picks and draft the best player available (BPA). With this draft strategy, you tend to get the not so flashy players who are underated which I am perfectly fine with.
I had numerous draft strategies specific to this draft:
A. Centers, centers, centers. There is an absolutely no depth at the center spot in the NBA. IMHO, there are only 10-12 quality/reliable centers and since we are required to start 2 Centers and you can count on each team probably drafting a backup that puts you down to a depth of 36 centers in total being drafted. I wanted to nab a top-tier center and a 2nd-tier center along with a quality backup. With Shaq, Blount, Stromile Swift & Brian Grant I feel I was able to do just that.
B. My second draft strategy was to put more emphasis on the Forward position and the least emphasis on the guard slot. In my honest opinion, I feel every year there is plenty of Guard depth and you can typically find a decent Guard off of the wiaver wire. Quality Forwards are harder to find. I feel I was able to put a slight emphasis on forwards while grabbing depth at guard in the later rounds.
2) My biggest personal surprise was drafting Shaq. I typically draft towards strong FT% and FG% shooters; however, I thought with Shaq moving to a new team in the Eastern conference coupled with the fact that he is in the best shape of his life was just too good to pass up at the end of the first round.
Another surprise was the speed that Centers were being drafted. This was my strategy and I may have helped this 'run on ceners' by being the first manager to draft both of his starting centers (2 in the top 5 rounds) but even with that said, I did not think that too many others would follow. Forwards also went faster than I expected and I am glad that I was able to draft what I consider to be 4 quality forwards.
3) My approach didnt change through the draft. Luckily I was able to get ahead of these runs and did not need to reach on my selection.
4) Very few drafts (if any) go as I had planned; however, this draft went fairly as I had expected. I'm sure that I am not the only person who feels this way, but I would probably be better suited to answer this question mid-way through the season. After every draft I feel strongly towards my team; unfortunately more times than none I do not feel the same way after the season ;)
5) I've received a few compliments on my Mark Blount selection but I am not as confident. If he continues to produce and/or improve upon last years numbers this pick will look like a steal but he could just as easily revert to his old self and then he would be a total bust.
My two favorite picks were getting Ray Allen with the 15th overall selection. Still though, I really feel that grabbing Corey Maggette at the end of the third round (#34 overall) was my best selection. I really think Maggette is in a great situation in LA and is talented enough to finish as a top 15 player this year. He is just so strong in 7 of 8 total categories (blocks being his downfall). Time will tell if I am right or wrong.
Taking Shaq #10 overall while I still feel was a good selection probably was my worst pickup. Luckily, I was able to get Ray Allen with my 2nd pick and both of these players could've been interchanged and it would not have made the Shaq selection quite as bad.
I also feel that Damon Stoudamire at the beginning of the 8th might turn out to be a bad selection. There are just too many PG options in Portland with Stoudamire, Van Exel and their 1st round draft pick whose mind slips me right now. If Stoudamire can reproduce his numbers from last year this pick will look OK, if he loses significant playing time this pick may look awful.
6) I liked the Antoine Walker selection in the 5th round. I was prepared to take 'toine with my 5th round pick but Swish and Edgar swept him out from right under my feet (1 pick). I actually though for 2 hours laying in bed while Swish and Edgar were on the clock and had my next 2-3 picks ready to be made all for it to fall apart. This may be a blessing in disguise though. I cant imagine having Shaq and Antoine on the same team. That might spell doom.
The two other selections that I liked were Gilbert Arenas in the 4th round and Al Harrington in the 5th. I was fortunate enough to play against Al Harrington while he was in High School and I knew from that point forward that he was going to be one special player. Thus far I have felt he has underachieved but now that he is with a new team he should get a better chance to succeed. Harrington is a player I can see being a top 15 type of player some day.
7) Kirk Hinrich. I'm just not sold on him. He'll get you a lot of assists but he isnt the type of player that I would draft in the third round although I do understand coldwater coyotes viewpoint drafting on the tail end.
Sorry Guru. I love your draft as a whole (see #9) but I felt Boozer was a stretch in the third round. I expect to see his numbers decrease significantly now that he is in Utah. In Cleveland he was in the perfect situation for him to succeed.
Honorable mention:
Vince Carter, Chris Webber and Grant Hill. These guys are too injury prone for me and IMHO are overated.
8) My first choice would be Guru's team. He's solid in every category minus blocks and should be at or near the top come the end of the season. Oddly enough, I felt his draft strategy and my draft strategy were completely opposite yet I believe we both came out with solid teams. It appeared his strategy was to draft assist men early while I drafted big men.
I also like Slackjawed Yokel's team a lot. I see both of these teams finishing at or near the top come the end of the year.
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| 8 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Wed, Oct 27, 2004, 01:27
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1) It seems my strategy is the same as most of the other participants - this probably explains our tendency to raid each other's queues with regularity. In the first few rounds I was going by my initial rankings - these rankings were heavily weighted towards balanced players and scarce positions (explains my first pick of Dirk). Also, I tend to shy away from picking players with low percentages (for the same reasons Guru gave above). It wasn't until midway through the draft that I started to try to address what I thought were weaknesses in team makeup.
2) As far as surprises, I don't think there were too many major ones. It seemed that the players I had identified as having dropped further than expected never made it all the way back to me (just tantalizingly close..) I suppose it was somewhat of a surprise just how close to the same wavelength we all were. On a couple occasions, I'd have time to do some research well advance of my pick. So, I'd end up listing 4-5 players I was interested in, and they'd get picked right in a row - not in the same order but all 5 would end up being picked in the next 7 picks. I suppose this means were all equally good or equally conservative in our rankings.
3) Around the 8th round, I started to compile some projected standings based on the rosters. I could see I had some deficiencies on my roster (namely lack of steals, blocks, and 3’s). But I still tried to draft well-balanced players instead of one-dimensional players that might help in one of these categories but hurt me in others.
4) I think initially I was overconcerned about meeting the positional requirements. So, I may have placed greater weight on the PG position and drafting players that had multiposition eligibility. It turns out these players are pretty common even in the later rounds. In fact 8 out of the 15 on my roster have multiposition eligibility. And, I guess only time will tell if Dirk was the right pick over Kobe. Another thing that might or might not come back to bite me is my late-late round picks of players that are having injury problems in the preseason (Kwame, Bender, M. Miller). There could have been some wasted picks in that bunch.
5) I’m really happy with a pair of early picks in the draft. These are Amare with 3.03 and Dwyane Wade at 5.03. Sounds like the Suns’ coach is experimenting with starting a small lineup featuring Stoudemire at C. Right now he’s only eligible at PF, but gaining center eligibility would be huge. Also, Dwyane has continued to light up the preseason, and really stands to put up some good numbers with Shaq around. I’m not terribly comfortable with my pick of Finley in the 4th. I think this is at least partly due to some players I had rated considerably higher almost making it back to me. Looking back, I think there’s a dropoff somewhere in the 3rd/4th rounds between the ‘elite’ and good fantasy players.
6) On a couple of occasions AP10 nabbed some players that I thought had dropped farther than I expected. I almost chose Carmelo Anthony over Stoudemire in the third, and ‘melo ended up slipping 12 more spots. Similar story happened with Doug Christie much later in the draft.
7) As mentioned and explained by others, I was a little surprised by Hinrich going so early. Ilgauskas was also surprising to me to go so early – I just checked his stats, and I guess he hasn’t been as injury plagued the last couple years as I thought. I tend to think of him as another Rik Smits with the feet problem, but maybe he’s gotten over that.
8) As I said earlier, I had been generating some standings as the draft progressed. (admittedly, I took a few shortcuts like averaging fg% and ft%, but it serves its purpose for identifying weaknesses and strengths with my team as I draft). But, it didn’t seem to matter what I did, I could not push my team ahead of Guru’s or AP10’s. Right now, my gut and my numbers tell me that AP10 has the team to beat.
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| 9 | RecycledSpinalFluid
Dude
ID: 204401122
Wed, Oct 27, 2004, 02:08
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- Only thing I really looked for was position diversity, solid percentages and good assists. Haven’t really evaluated how I came out, against the other teams. I also tend to gamble of the players with questions (i.e. injury and stupidity). Please see: Brand, Carter, Szczerbiak, Stackhouse, among others.
- Can’t say anything surprised me too much. Well, other than Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje not getting drafted.
- Don’t think it really changed. I tried to blend it with Best Talent Available. And said screw the Center position after Olowokandi went at 13.01.
- I think I might have gone with the 3rd pick, and selected Dirk. Wonder if Miller would have still been there at 2.10? Sounds like it. That would have been a nice strong center position, with roster flexibility for both Dirk and Brad to play F, PF and C.
- Best pick? Vince at 30. He played in and started 73 games last year, averaging 38.2 minutes per game. 73 games is more than Shaq, CWeb, AI, Baron Davis, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant and Ray Allen, among others. The ninth leading overall score at 30…I’ll take that.
Next best pick? Jeff McInnis at 11.06. My PG slot was fairly week, draft dimes from all players, rather than relying on coming strictly from the PG slot. Jeff’s career numbers increased from year to year, until he made the stupid mistake to sign with Portland as a FA. Stupid, stupid, stupid. Anyway, freed from the JailBlazers in a trade to Cleveland, he stepped right back into his old form and produced at a nice little 12 point and 8 dime pace. Those would be excellent numbers for that late of a pick.
Next next bestestest…Bonzi Wells.
- EuroGollom’s 8th and 10th selections of Troy Murphy and Raef LaFrentz. Injury histories dropped both these players. Neither one of these players would have made it past me (three picks later), if they had continued to slide. I think both these guys will rebound nicely (pun intended) from sub par seasons and produce well for those draft slots.
- Surprise pick Exhibit A: Mark Blount at 5.10. That guy is too damned ugly to be picked that high. Perhaps the position scarcity had something to do with it, but a 10 and 7 guy in round 5 is a bit early for my book, especially with a young guy on a contract year like Lazy Eddy Curry still available…but he has obvious baggage too.
Exhibit B: Eric Snow at 9.06. I made this pick under the idea that Snow was going to be the starting SG, as he was at the beginning of camp. This would have given him G, PG and SG for positions (after meeting the games required rule at SG). Shortly after making the pick, he was appointed the more natural position of bPG, running with the second unit, with Lucious Harris becoming the starting SG. Bummer.
- Guru’s first half of his draft was dominant, I think Swish and Edgar’s team is going to be the most interesting team to watch develop, but the team I’d swap with would be Slackjawed Yokel’s. Outside is early selection of Okafor and slightly early pick of Primo Supreamo, I think he got a strong blend of “you know what yer gonna get”s and “rising talent” that should make for a very strong team.
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| 10 | Rand
Donor
ID: 083231216
Wed, Oct 27, 2004, 13:30
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1. I just wanted to play it real safe, and build a very balanced line-up. I had a detailed list of guys I would not take under any circumstances. This list included Baron Davis (2nd pick) and Allen Houston. So things didn't go exactly as I expected. Also, I planned to avoid drafting rookies too early (although last year I ended up with LeBron, Carmelo, and Bosh all on my team) but ended up drafting Deng in the 11th. Basically, I intended to pursue players that had some concrete track record as opposed to picking a guy based on too much speculative information. In many ways this draft surpassed my expectations in that I think I've built a far more outstanding team then I had expected given the intense competition for quality players.
2. I was surprised that my wife didn't threaten to divorce me after my crazy obsession in researching the 2004-2005 fantasy hoops season. Swish and Edgar dropping themselves down to the 9th pick was surprising but just because it's not something I would have done given the option.
3. My approache changed in that I drifted away from all-round guys, like Kirlenko (which is basically the way I tried to build my team last year) and started picking guys for a specific statistic boost. So I would target certain stats and positions each round that would satisfy my teams essential needs and not be too concerned about where that Player ranked in overall rankings.
4. I still have some lingering doubts about taking Baron (kinda like Dave R's thinking with Iverson) and may have season long regrets about not taking Amare Stoudemire in the mid second round. Of course, that would have changed everything, and since I'm pleased with the team that I've got, I guess I wouldn't have done anything much differently:)
5.I think the pick that gave me the most happiness was Carlos Arroyo in the 8th, since I thought I'd lost my chance at him after opting for Parker instead. Worst pick maybe Kenny Anderson in that he probably would have come back around to me in the 13th and, in hindsight, there were some more productive players still available (I'm looking at you Bonzi Wells).
6. Some early round picks that I thought were picked up at a good time...Gilbert Arenas in the mid-4th; Dwyane Wade in the fifth also looked like a fantastic buy. Later rounds, I also like the Caron Butler pick in the 12th and Josh Howard could be the biggest steal of the year if he keeps things up despite the return of Marguis Daniels.
Actually alot of those guys that went down in the 11th-12th rounds just before my pick all were great late round selections with excellent potential. DJones, Sweetney, Mason, Diaw, Howard, and Butler.
7. At the time, I thought Webber going in the late 2nd round and Zydranus and Boozer drafted in the 3rd round were all taken a little early for my liking. Some late round picks struck me as odd, but they're late round picks and sometime they're
supposed to be odd.
8. maybe RSF's team, but he seems a little thin at PG. Hmmm, it's so tough to say, I just love them all!
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| 11 | Edgar
ID: 5891276
Wed, Oct 27, 2004, 14:06
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1) Well we did not really had a strategy going into the draft except of deciding on picking 9th. This to have an opportunity at Lebron and a better player in the 2nd round. I have a feeling this might have been a good decision. But we will see. Other thing we decided is to play all out again and get high risk high reward players on our team. We probably could have picked more conservatively (like Mike D) but it does not seem to be our most appropriate style.
2) Not many surprises noticed. I think the general level of the managers is even higher than last year. Which makes it fun but kind of threatening as well. Good thing I have this other Gollum around that has provided us with excellent insights and options. Way to go Swish!
3) We took 2 top PGs in the first two round, although Lebron will get SF eligible quickly, which kind of set the tone. In the later rounds we found our team reasonably balanced.
4) Maybe pick in 4th and nail Kobe. Also I have this feeling that Donyell will break down on us but Swish's gut says it will not happen. I might have picked someone else there
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect. Worse I think Donyell or the injured Daniels. Best pick I think is the Franchise who I think we should a bad FG% but will blow up the joint in steals, assists, points and rebs.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Steals are hard to come by with managers like this. I think the best steals were Arroyo, Gino, Haywood and Nocioni.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Kirk Hinrich, like stated before. Maybe Boozer. Kaman, S. Jackson, Barry, but they might turn out to be rock solid.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Mike D's simply because he has such a stable balance. Also this is the team most likely to be traded away completely within the next weeks. So take a close look at it before it will be gone!
Like Guru's team as well. Real good upside and stable players.
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| 12 | blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 034837521
Thu, Oct 28, 2004, 14:45
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1. My strategy going into the year didn’t consist of much. Mainly, I just knew that I wanted at least two decent Centers so I didn’t have to repeat last year’s shuffling of “hot” waiver pickups to accompany Theo Ratliff. Note the quotes around “hot”. This part went as expected – I took Ben Wallace in the 2nd, with the hope that he would gain C eligibility (which I see as of this morning he has), his brother and teammate Rasheed in the 4th, and Dampier in the 6th. In hindsight, I’m glad I took each of these guys – I’m covered if there’s an injury and/or have trade bait.
2. I apparently have an aversion to point guards. Before the draft, I guessed that I might be able to get a decent (top 12) PG somewhere around the 6th or 7th round. This part of the strategy did not pan out. I ended up taking my first PG in the 8th round, and he ended up being the 21st PG taken, in my estimation. In looking over the draft, 14/38 (~37%) of the players taken from pick 2.02 through 5.03 were PG’s. I didn’t expect this and it cost me a shot at many decent players.
3. With my second pick (B. Wallace), I briefly entertained the thought of tanking, or at least not worrying about, FT%. Doug probably thinks I’m hypocritical for taking Wallace in the first place as I told him the reason I didn’t want to trade up draft picks for TD was that I hated writing off (or trying to make up for) FT%. But, as I rationalized in my Wallace pick write-up, Big Ben doesn’t get quite enough opportunities at the stripe to completely kill the category. As it turns out, I don’t have any stellar free-throwers on my team, with the possible exception of Troy Hudson who probably won’t get the # of shots to help much. With Dampier also on my team, I’m sure I’ll end up towards the bottom of the list in FT%.
4. Could have definitely picked some PG’s earlier than I did. I kept thinking the “run” would stop, but it didn’t and it cost me. I guess that’s what trades are for. Also, I wish I would have researched the players towards the last third of the draft a little better. As of today, I’m not incredibly happy with my last 5 picks very much (T. Hudson, S. Battier, D. Harris, B. Knight, and G. Giricek).
5. I like my 6th round pick of E. Dampier. At the time I waffled between him and Jason Richardson, who Dave R took immediately after my pick and I even had some buyer’s remorse and offered Dave a swap. However, the way things turned out, I’m quite happy to have a second (now third) center on my roster that should be a big contributor. As I stated, none of my last 5 picks excite me that much right now.
6. I like the following guys for where they were taken: Jason Richardson, A. Walker, and Brian Grant.
7. Guys that went earlier than I had them slated: Okafor and Dalembert
8. Right now I’d put my money on RSF if I had too pick someone – but I don’t feel that anyone is head and shoulders above anyone else. RSF needs a center, but otherwise has a nice balance. I also like AP10, Rand and Mike D’s teams.
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| 13 | Doug
ID: 57352917
Fri, Oct 29, 2004, 16:08
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
Not particularly. Try not to "reach" for positions. I am usually inclined to avoid risky players, but as the draft began it quickly seemed there were a lot of calculated risks worth taking, so I decided to live a little.
2) What surprised you?
How closely the draft mirrored my own projections. Where are all the crappy managers making ridiculous picks!? They say if you can't spot the fool, you're probably the fool... hmm...
Normally, there are a few "gems" that I feel I pick up in the draft (last year Zach Randolph was a case in point). Not so much this year. Toughest draft I've done. This is the least excited I've ever been about a team I've drafted. I think it's an interesting team, and will be fun to manage... but I just don't have the usual "my team will kick a$$" feeling.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
Players like Webber and Kidd who have injury issues nevertheless seemed to fall farther than they should have IMHO, so I ended up taking some gambles.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Pick a different draft slot. I felt my draft slot was kinda uninteresting for some reason... although I think going 2nd and nabbing Duncan was the right move fantasy-wise, I just don't like watching the guy play for some reason, and would have preferred to pick up a couple of the exciting #5-20 picks.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best pick... lol, how should I know? I feel like I made a lot of picks that could payoff big... Webber, Kidd, Chandler, Childress... but all of them could also easily be my worst picks.
I think I had solid picks in rounds 1 (Duncan), 3 (Cassell), 4 (Billups), 5 (Van Horn), 8 (Hughes), and 9 (Robinson), 12 (McKie)... but rest of my team will be an adventure.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
B Davis fell too far at 2.06 (I had him #7), Sheed at 4.08, but Walker at 5.09 was WAY late IMHO. Also Mike James at 10.09 (I failed to update my ranking for him!). Some late picks like Deng and Kandi have looked really good in the preseason, and Gadzuric if he holds the starting job and can stay healthy. LOL, just realized... of course I mention 2 former UCLA Bruins...
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Hinrich, I think he'll be good, but I had several other PGs rated ahead of him. Magloire and Shareef Abdur-Rahim seemed a little early to me.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Slack, Rand, AP10, and Dave all have appealing teams to trade for... but I'd have to go with Slackjawed's squad.
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| 14 | coldwater coyotes
SuperDude
ID: 229272412
Fri, Oct 29, 2004, 18:22
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1) Based on last year's results I set the following targets for a winning team:
PPG: 14.9
RPG: 6.15
APG: 3.3
Steals: 1100
Blocks: 820
3pts: 900
FG%: 0.456
Ft% 0.79.
I felt that the hardest targets would be the shooting percentages so I planned to focus on these categories both by taking players who had good shooting records in both categories and by avoiding anybody (such as Shaq or Walker) who could detonate a category.
Also having opted for taking pick one which meant KG, I decided to avoid Centers for the first five rounds.
2) I fully expected that given the scarcity the top ten point guards would have gone earlier...Arenas at 4.05 is an example.
There seemed to be a major fall off in quality of players beginning in round seven. I don't recall such an early fall off in previous drafts. This could be due to the standard of managers who did not allow any good players to fall too low. It could also be due to the increasing trend of NBA players to focus on individual performance at the expense of team performance. Apart from one or two players in each team the rest find it difficult to put up many shots. I felt that this focus on individual stats in the NBA was the main reason for USA's poor performance in this year's Olympics.
3) I found it very difficult to keep to all of my category targets. Many a time I thought about dumping either the FG% or the 3pts category as hitting both these targets at the same time was very difficult. However I knew that finshing in the top 3 in this league would be impossible by dumping a category.
5) I think my best picks were Camby and Curry at 6.12 and 7.01. I don't think I have harmed my team by waiting so long for a Center.
My worst pick has to be Damon Jones at 11.01...I took him with the hope that he would see more minutes as a PG for Miami. This no longer seems likely as Riley is clearly going with Wade as his full time PG.
6) Troy Murphy at 8.04 will be the steal of the draft. I also think that Swift at 9.10 is a great pick given that he qualifies as a center. If I had known he would slip so low I would have held back on picking one of my centers.
7) Like many others I consider that Shaq went too high, especially as I can see him taking even more free throws in Miami without Kobe at his side hogging the ball. Perhaps Okafur went too high for his rookie year...I think his shooting percentages will be low.
8) I like the Euros team. Taking Daniels, Murphy, Hill and Lafrentz for their middle round picks could well turn out to be smart moves.
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| 15 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 2730280
Fri, Oct 29, 2004, 21:00
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Re: Cold's reply to #3... you know, I dumped assists last year, and finished second... so finishing top 3 is tough, sure... but impossible? No! ;-)
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