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Subject: RIHC 2005-06: Draft Recap
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Oct 26, 2005, 17:41
Once the RIHC draft has finished, I invite each of the participants to share any overall reactions that they have. Feel free to say as muych or as little as you wish. As a guide, you might consider the following questions:
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
2) What surprised you?
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Outsiders who were not participating in the draft are also welcome to share their general reactions. |
| 1 | WonderB
Sustainer
ID: 241053812
Wed, Oct 26, 2005, 17:56
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is there a place we can view your picks team by team.? to compare teams.
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| 2 | Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Wed, Oct 26, 2005, 19:35
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RIHC Page is here. Then click Draft picks or Draft grid. The rosters for all teams will also be displayed here soon.
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| 3 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 27, 2005, 13:04
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I had no specific strategy, other than to react to what was happening, and to try to keep my roster statistically balanced so that I wouldn’t feel panicked into reaching for certain positions or stats in the middle rounds. I felt like I succeeded, taking two centers (Yao and Ilgauskas) in the 2nd and 3rd rounds when I did not feel like I was reaching at all.
Nothing really surprised me. This was my 3rd RIHC draft, and my 7th overall Invitational draft, and they have all been very difficult.
I probably wouldn’t have done anything differently with 20/20 hindsight. There are some middle round players that I would like to have gotten (Josh Howard & Josh Smith come to mind), but I passed over them at times when I knew they wouldn’t make it back to me, so it’s not as though I got blindsided.
I was pretty happy with Iverson as my first pick, but recent news of his preseason knee problems have given me some anxiety. Hopefully he won’t turn into a Barry Bonds situation. And maybe having Korver will provide a little insurance against Iverson DNPs, although there is no assurance that Korver’s stats would be the most likely to benefit from an Iverson absence.
I tend to value the percentage categories more highly than most published cheatsheets do, and my picks probably reflect that. Using RotoWire projections, I’ll shoot 80% from the line and 46% from the floor, and those percentages would have ranked 2nd and 3rd in last year’s league.
As an aside, I tended to rely on RotoWire projections to generate my quantitative rankings, but then made a number of subjective adjustments as we worked down the list and I disagreed with some of their numbers. Curiously, I thought that RotoWire’s published cheatsheet was significantly out of synch with their projected stats. There were some highly ranked players with projected stats that did not warrant the ranking, and vice versa. I can’t attribute the differences to any statistical factors, so I’m just going to assume that they may have been developed by different people, or using different stats, or at least different biases.
So far, there is no pick of mine that I really hate. That may change by the second week of November, of course.
I’m not going to publish a projected league standings based on the RotoWire projections, because I know there are some key players whose projections are significantly outdated based on changed outlooks during the preseason. However, based on those projections, the teams (other than mine) that look strong are Slackjawed Yokel, skinneej, and Doug.
Hoopsklyce looks to be taking some of the biggest gambles. From the 8th round on, he seemed to be taking players with significant uncertainty – including James Jones, Kwame, Villanueva, Deron Williams, Jasikevicius, … - if his assessments are correct, he could do quite well. But if several of them don’t pan out, he might have to scramble.
Every time a player was picked that surprised me, some impromptu research usually provided a plausible rationale. I did think that some players were taken a few rounds too early, but I’ve also learned that if there are guys you want to get, you have to err on the early side. Playing a game of guts is usually a losing proposition in these drafts.
Last year, I came out of the draft knowing that I had a shortage of blocks, but this year I feel like I have no obvious weaknesses, but also no overabundances. Hopefully, this cast of characters will statistically mesh well. I have no doubt that all of my projections are wrong, but can only hope that the deviations are balanced.
I really don’t see any other team that I’d swap for straight up, although based on past results, I have to think that Dave R and the Euros are well positioned, especially with their first round picks. I think I have a reasonable blend of risk and stability, so I’m content to start the season and see how this starship flies!
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| 4 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Oct 28, 2005, 00:40
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1 - My strategy began when I took the fifth draft position. I intended to draft Marion, Nowitzki, or Stoudamire, whoever slipped, and get myself a top shelf big man. As I looked forward to the second round, I saw a whole bunch of guards available, so I needed to get the big man stats in the first round. All that changed when Stoudamire got hurt. I generally have faith in my draft lists and try to take the top player most of the time, and for the most part I did. I also tried to select a projected top-10 player in each category, and was able to do so in 6 of the 8.
2 – I was surprised by a few picks for sure, but there was very little player slippage. I was surprised that Mike D. took two … sometimes three hours to draft a player. I think this is the first time I’ve been in a roto-league draft with Mike D. (always wanted to), and I fully expected him to be omnipresent and drafting within seconds of his number being called. (Just joshing you man!) :-)
3 – I took a bit of a reach potentially with Okafor in the third round when there were players higher on my draft list, but I needed a big man. Otherwise, I didn’t really deter from the strategy of taking one of my top ranked players.
4 – I’m happy about how things turned out, but I certainly have a lot of players with the mysterious “upside”. Okafor, Anthony, Swift, Miles, and Turkoglu all have lots of positive press and loads of potential … but not a lot of proven NBA consistency. I hope all the reports are true, but the team could perhaps use a few vets.
5 – I think my best pick is probably Turkoglu at 12.08. He was my one-man queue beginning at pick 11.11, so I feel glad I got him. I sincerely hope that Grant Hill comes back, but I’ll enjoy Turkoglu and his 3s while I can. I feel pretty positive about the whole team, except for Jamaal Tinsley. He is exactly the sort of player I don’t draft … he seems injury-prone and has screwed me in the past. There were probably better choices out there.
6 – Looking over the bottom half of the draft, there is almost no one that I think is a tremendous steal. I definitely remember saying “good pick” to selections by Guru and Mike D, and found Hoopsklyce stealing most of my sleepers down the stretch.
7 – A couple early third-rounders, Joe Johnson and Ron Artest caught me off-guard, as did James Jones in the eighth. There were a number of mid to lower tier centers that went much higher than I had on my draft list, but that’s how things go in a league that requires two starting centers.
8 – The only team I’d want to swap with is Dave R., and that’s because he has Lebron James. I hear that guy is pretty good (FWIW - I hear Dave R. is pretty good too.). I didn’t create any spreadsheets to determine final standings, but I like the feel of Mike D.’s and Guru’s teams. I like my team because I feel I have a few good all-around players, good category specialists, and a bunch of players with “breakout” and “upside” in their blurbs.
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| 5 | lionprideguy
Leader
ID: 906204
Fri, Oct 28, 2005, 04:28
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I'm going to be out of town again for the next 3-4 days, so I wanted to post something here before I go. It might not be as comprehensive as I'd like, but I feel better getting some initial thoughts out rather than waiting until next week.
1) I did have a bit of a strategy going in, although it was also a bit dictated out of my control by the draft spot at the turn of the rounds. My strategy before that spot was set differs from the actual draft I ended up conductingso I know that I went about things differently as impacted by position.
My first roto (non fantasy points) league ever was the first RIHC two years ago. At that time I had no concept of the value of % categories or some other things, so ended up with Antoine Walker, Iverson, and a bunch of gunners who killed my %'s with no regard for sanity at all. Even tried to trade for Webber, I remember. Last year in AAA I changed and held a firm line on %'s, and it paid off with good rankings, especially FT's. This year I went in with all kinds of guidelines for myself about the % categories especially - I'm more like Guru in putting a high priority on those. But sometimes your strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities are things you have to be flexible to given the circumstances in the draft spots you have. So while I never would have wanted Ben Wallace last year, passing him up at 3.12 also seemed like it might be a lost opportunity on getting an early lead in blocks and rebounding, and adjust accordingly.
2) There weren't too many things that completely surprised me. I was reminded of the strength of the league when the draft was noticably harder than last year's AAA. I didn't expect players to fall through the cracks, but I forgot how extremely tight it was and how many times we seemed to be drafting off each's others lists. I must say the speed surprised me, too, which is a credit to how well-prepared so many of the other managers are in their draft analysis and prep.
3) I don't have quite the comprehensive stat tracking systems or draft sheets, although I wish I had time to since I'm very much a stat analysis-type guy, too. But without the same amount of time that I had a few years ago in college to do all that, I had to draft off general impressions and thoughts. I know this hurt me a few times because I probably went too early for someone, without solid statistical data that would have shown me an undervalued opportunity elsewhere. And it made it especially hard to prepare draft queues in case I would be away for too long, since there weren't lots of numbers to sort and have someone rise up for a ranking.
The other category I'm really low on right now, obviously, is in 3's. That's one strategy that kind of developed after the first few rounds. In those places, I wanted to take the best player available, and then see what general form my team started to take. After the first 4 rounds, when none of the best players available were 3-point shooters, I had to make a decision. Did I stretch for 3's in rounds 6-9, putting a huge priority there just so I don't get left too far behind, and draft guys like James Jones, Raja Bell, and any other shooters early?
The reason I decided not to do that is that, of all categories, I believe the 3's are the one where unknown shooters emerge at the start of the season. Generally, nobody is going to come out of nowhere to lead the league in rebounds, or blocked shots. But last year, I remember Kyle Korver went undrafted and was a free-agent pickup, and so was Damon Jones. Nobody had any idea at the time Q was going to shoot so many per game, either. So if there's one category you can make up from early free agents, this is the one. Of course I've just given away my entire strategy for the next two weeks, everybody knows I'm going to be working that FA/Waiver line like mad grabbing any shooters that emerge. Not like that was going to be a mystery anyway. But it's actually a planned one - if there was one category to make up ground in FA land, that might be it.
4) If I had to do it over - more prep, definitely, I was behind in that. And stayed truer to my initial idea of paying good attention to FG and FT%, and not letting that get away from me, or 3's as bad as it did.
5) Best pick, hopefully T.J. Ford stays healthy and overproduces for the 10th round, or Chris Paul gets off to an early start.
Worst pick, I probably should have grabbed Brand or Jermaine or someone else instead of Brad Miller at 2.01. But that might turn out to be okay, that's not disasterous. But the middle rounds might kill me once again, for the third straight year. Tayshaun Prince is really putting up some weak preseason numbers, and Eddy Curry has already been sent to NY's bench for Jerome James, and you know that's not a good sign. Thought if you're going to gamble do it on a big man, but it still shows it can turn out terrible.
6) Ahh, Boris Diaw by the Euros at 15.02, I really wanted him and should have taken him at 14.01. Their Amare pick could pay off of course, and Zaza at 8.11 as we all kept sleeping on him and waiting for him to fall. Bobby Simmons is looking real good for skineej in round 8 now that Desmond Mason is traded. The way Carmelo is playing in preseason, getting balanced numbers all across the boxscore, Tosh's pickup of him at 4.08 could be a steal
7) Kurt Thomas at 4.09 was a bit unexpected for me, as was Darius Miles in the 7th and then Stephen Jackson at 5.09, but I'm not going to doubt the Klyce. I've learned better than that.
8) I really think Mike D consistantly got good value for the players at each pick, round for round. Solid group. But overall, I gotta say I'm rather impressed with the team from Swish and Edgar, there's potential to deliver some serious punch with that team. Balanced, deep, with lots of late steals and performers.
Overall, it was a great experience, thanks to everybody. The draft is always one of the absolute high points of any league, and I am again honored just to be able to be a part of this. Everybody's been fun, helpful, and positive throughout, and now I just hope I can hang in well enough to make it back. Thanks to everybody and good luck, can't wait for the season to start now!
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| 6 | Doug
Leader
ID: 02730280
Fri, Oct 28, 2005, 17:44
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General Draft Reaction
I was pretty happy with my first 3 picks and the balanced squad I had put together. That gave me a lot of flexibility going forward, and I basically spent ALL of that flexibility in round 4 by taking Shaq. From there on out, I had to consider FT% with pretty much every pick if I wanted any hope of respectability in that category. I think/hope I achieved that.
Round 5 was interesting… I missed out on Andre Miller by a pick, but ended up with my best player available at the time in Shareef, who I later learned will possibly be getting some starts at C. There’s also a chance that my round 7 pick, Troy Murphy, will attain C eligibility. As long as one of those guys comes through, I should be golden at C, even though I didn’t officially draft my second C until round 13.
With no early PGs, I ended up taking 4 overall… FT sharpshooters Stoudamire and Cassell should hopefully give me a solid base, and Boykins has looked real good in preseason (and also shoots 90% FTs). Livingston is the big question mark right now, how much time will he get and how well will he perform once he returns from his bad back? We’ll see, but I’m not looking for a superstar here… just a player who will have some good runs from time-to-time during the season (especially if Cassell were to miss time).
In general, I tried to take high-upside, roll-the-dice players in round 11 on, hoping one or two would pay off and make themselves solid contributors in my utility slots. It is interesting, but not intentional, to note that through the first 10 rounds, I took forwards in odd numbered rounds… F, G, F, C, F, G, F, G, F, G. I didn’t even notice this pattern until round 11, at which point I unintentionally broke it.
Questions
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
Not really… draft slot strategy was discussed in my first rationale. Other than that, just take the Best Player Available and not get overly concerned about positions and/or particular stats for the first 5-6 rounds or so… in other words, “Don’t Reach!” That did change a bit once I took Shaq, as I was paying extra attention to FT% from there on out.
2) What surprised you?
Not much surprised me… a few picks here or there that I thought were early, but nothing particuarly unusual. Actually, I was surprised at a lot of the round 3 and 4 centers who were taken ahead of Shaq. I understand why, but it still surprised me.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
Again, Shaq. My options were to punt FT% or try to salvage it. Given that I took Shaq in round 4, and I already had three 80% plus players on board, I decided the prudent path would be to try to salvage FT% without over-reaching for players. Was a tough line to walk, but I think I achieved it. We’ll see how it goes from here.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Not much! I had a blast and enjoyed all the trades I made too (thanks guys!) Some may have been unnecessary, but when there was I guy I really wanted I tried to make it happen to be safe… and I don’t think that it “cost” me much either.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
I’m pretty happy with how a lot of my mid-to-late rounders are looking in the presason, but I think getting Shaq in round 4 has to be my best pick (assuming he stays healthy). I'm currently feeling slightly nervous about Shareef, but I think he'll pick up in regular season... and Stoudamire hasn't been getting as many assists as I'd like in preseason... but just yellow flags, no red flags. Odds are I could have easily waited a round on Livingston.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
I thought Kyle Korver was a great value at his slot… might have taken him in round 6 myself except that I felt I really needed a PG at that point and there was one at the top of my board who was a great fit for me because of 90 FT% (again, Stoudamire... just dish that ball baby!). Antoine Walker lasted a long time too (round 11!), even once you take his %s into consideration. I could handle his FGs but not his FTs though since I already had Shaq. Without Shaq I would have taken him round 9 or 10 maybe… but I can only support 1 anchor, not 2. In later rounds I had my eye on Jimmy Jackson as well, but he’s got a little bit more of a question mark than the other two guys I mentioned above and so I just never pulled the trigger. Could be steal for round 13 though.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Joe Johnson, he’s looking good in preseason, but 3.02? Seems risky. I understand it was a long wait until the next pick though. Eddy Curry, Darius Miles, James Jones amongst others.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Hmm… deciding between Guru and Slack, but I'd have to give the nod to Guru. The next tier of teams that I like is Euros, Mike, and skaneege oops… Skin-Neeje err…. skinnedknees no wait, I think it’s "SkinneeJ". Yay!
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| 7 | Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Sat, Oct 29, 2005, 21:12
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Wow, this draft was tough! Thank goodness i had Edgar to help guide me through it. He really is a top notch manager, and to have that kind of second opinion available when you're wavering or unsure is a great feeling. It's our 3rd year of RIHC together now, and it's quite uncanny how we seem to think alike when it comes to who to draft and when to draft them. We argue like a married couple somtimes, but in the past, it's almost always resulted in the right selections. So, thanks again Edgar - you're my favourite co-EuroGollum ever! :) Are EuroGollum confident of their ability to reclaim the Ring this year? Read on to find out. As always, i'm sure Edgar will chip in with his own musings in due course.
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
We managed to attain our primary aim of pairing KG with a top tier PG in Baron. After that, our choices were pretty much based on BPA. Certainly that was the case until we started having to look for Centers. I really could not be happier with the way things turned out. I think we're strong and balanced, and that's about all i could ask for prior to going into a draft of this ferocity.
2) What surprised you?
The thing that surprised me most was the amount of times that both ourselves and Dave managed to rob the other of potential picks. In a way, that actually makes me quite confident about our draft. If you're thinking along the same lines as Dave R most of the time, then that's a pretty good sign as far as i am concerned. I was also slightly surprised at the amount of times Doug traded in the middle rounds. That draft grid of his looks like a rainbow! I guess he must have really wanted some of those players on his team.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
It was certainly not planned to get 4 swingmen in a row (3 of them GF eligible), but it did open up a lot of doors for us later on, having that kind of flexibility. I don't know if i've ever waited until the 95th pick (or even close it) to grab my #1 center, so we'll see how that works out. Having said that, we talked more and more about Amare from about round 8 onwards. It was never an explicit plan to get him, but when it came to 13.02, we just had to grab him. That's the first time that we felt our team was strong enough to withstand an initially non-contributing pick.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
I have to be honest and say that stats and projections wise, we were not as prepared as last year. Many of our picks were made on gut feelings, and maybe had a little less statistical groundwork applied than previosuly. I don't think it affected the quality of our draft, though. My one big question mark was whether we should have taken Raymond Felton instead of Krstic at 11.02. Yes we did require a 2nd C, but as i pointed out in our Krstic recap, i felt this was a great opportunity to handicap a couple of the PG retentive managers. I don't feel too bad about it because Krstic should be fine, but i hope it's something we don't regret down the line.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
I'm pretty high on our shotblocking, rebounding bombers: Marshall and Griffin. Here, we've got 2 guys that are in optimum situations to get the most out of their numbers, and improve significantly on last year's performance. I have to think they're both complete steals where we got them. Have you SEEN Eddie's numbers in the preseason? Iggy could be absolutely brilliant this year. But i still think Baron Davis is our key - if he's healthy, he could really guide us to greatness.
Worst picks? Maybe i'm a little bit sketchy on Knight, because of the Felton situation. But no matter, Brevin's production in limited minutes is such that he'll get his. I suppose Joey Graham could be waiver fodder if he gets stuck on the bench behind Mo Pete early on.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
It's difficult to get a steal in this league, because everyone has clearly done their homework. As the result of the trade, Desmond Mason looks like a really good pick for Dave R. Doug got a nice pick of Nene at 13.08, i'm not sure why he lasted so long, especially with the Denver injury roundabout already in full swing in the preseason. And there were some nice players taken in the last round - Chucky, Darko and Andersen all have potential to be nice bench contributors this year.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Grant Hill at 5.04 surprised me. He was good last year, but he still hasn't convinced me his health can warrant a 5th round pick. Chandler in 4 and Przybilla in 5 also i thought were reaches, even considering they're C eligible. There were plenty of shotblocking Cs available in the 2nd half of the draft that could have offered close to the same performance.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Guru started off very strongly by nailing down his C position early...and without reaching. I think for that reason alone, he has to be considered a serious challenger. SY, Tosh and Mike D are other teams that i see with a lot of potential. Although, i'm not convinced if Mike is just trying to win 3s again by about twice as many as everyone else....again! ;)
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| 8 | Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sun, Oct 30, 2005, 01:21
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
My strategy going in was to try and focus on multi-tool/well-rounded players early on. I figured in a 12 team draft like this that my strategy would likely not be unique, and that I’d probably have to adjust it early. As it is, my strategy mainly lasted 5 rounds.
2) What surprised you?
I was surprised that my queue didn't disappear as fast this year, and that specifically most players I had my eye on made it back to me (regardless of whether I actually selected them, lol).
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
It only changed to the point that I began looking at positional holes in round 6.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Not much. I rolled the dice on Webber in the 6th, which is not normally my style. But I hold out hope that it pans out.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Feedback from the league makes me think Howard at 3.07 may have been my best. Worst could be Webber, depending.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Cassell if he can stay healthy at 8.02, same with Jaric at 10.03. Griffin at 10.11.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
This year there were too many to name. Przybilla at 5.06, Anthony at 4.08, and Frye at 13.04 stick out.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Tough call. Several teams have appealling nucleuses. I guess the Euros.
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| 9 | Pacers Rule
ID: 46946127
Sun, Oct 30, 2005, 04:59
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Generally, this draft was just as tough as I expected it to be. In fact, probably more so. The only saving grace was that usually there was a little time to research your pick. Obviously, having so many internet rankings and cheat sheets available was very helpful, but ultimately, it came down to your gut impression of what players would do this year in their teams’ situations. You always hope you’ve done more reading and considered more situations than other managers but the reality is that the league is just too large to be familiar with every team’s situations and players - particularly bubble or emerging players. Even in middle rounds, it’s hard to know as much as you’d like to know when considering several choices for your pick.
One thing for me that I was at a disadvantage on was that I have not drafted with most or all of my opponents, so I didn’t necessarily know their tendencies. For example, when Guru took Boozer out from under my nose in the 5th round, I panicked and assumed the other strong percentage guys were going to be targeted. Hence, I grabbed Wally Szczerbiak at the next available opportunity given his strong %s and potential for a really strong season. However, in comparison with other leagues, Wally World might have been a stretch early in the 6th.
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
Well, it was hard to have a strategy since this is just my second year at this and I wasn’t completely sure what to expect in the draft. I had a lot of success last year because I tried to draft based on well-rounded players who would give me contributions in a lot of areas. I figured if I’m getting great value with all my picks, then ultimately my category rankings will take care of themselves. That worked very well last year in RIHC AA but I doubt it will have quite as much success with this level of competition. I tried hard to resist the temptation to over-analyze my roster too much and worry about filling category holes with upcoming picks. I figured if I took well-rounded multi-cat contributors, the categories would eventually even out. Prime examples in my mind of that philosophy were my picks of Bonzi Wells, Jalen Rose, and Mo Pete in the middle to late rounds.
I tried to consistently look for the BPA and if at all possible, preserve enough roster balance to maximize flexibility for subsequent picks. However, that didn’t always happen, even early. As someone (was it you, Doug?) pointed out in the middle of the draft, I had taken 2 guards followed by 2 Centers and then 2 Forwards.
The one category I did kind of look out for was 3 point shooting. Last year, I ended up neglecting this consideration and got lucky that Reggie Miller and Kyle Korver subsequently joined my squad as free agents and saved that category for me. I remember reading somewhere that threes and blocks were hard to find on the waiver wire, but I’m not sure I was as worried about the blocks as I should have been. I think after I drafted Camby in the 4th, I figured my concern about blocks were solved. We’ll see if he can deliver for me this year.
The other categories I tried to keep somewhat of an eye on was both shooting percentages. However, it was obvious that others were doing the same. Freak, as I look down SkinneeJ’s roster, He seemed to manage to find all stud percentage guys. The first four rounds I didn’t feel that the players I wanted were necessarily stud percentage guys. Nonetheless, I felt they were the players I needed to take in those situations, although as has been discussed, I should have drafted Odom 3.11 instead of Wallace. This is why I went to FG% in round 5 & 6 and FT % in round 6. I felt I needed to focus on that cat esp. with those 2 picks to help balance my team out at that point.
Another strategy that I used last year and wanted to duplicate was going big early. I wanted to have some good centers as early as possible so I would not have to worry about it later. I had planned to nab Brad Miller with pick 2.02, but then when LionPrideGuy grabbed him there, I decided there was no center available that justified a 2.02 pick, esp. with Vince still on the board. In rounds 3 and 4 I went with center eligible players to easy my anxieties there. I figured I could possibly stock up on another good sleeper center and I’d be in good shape for my centers. As a scarce position, I figured there were less opportunities to nab a good player and that I could find more choices from other positions in later rounds without the steep dropoff in talent that exists among the top Centers and the others.
I figured scoring would have a tendency to take care of itself, b/c you naturally tend to be gravitated toward good scorers when you’re considering good players. At the same time, scoring seems to be an over-valued category so players who score a lot but don’t do much else tend to get picked ahead of guys who hit a lot of 3's but don’t do much else, for example. I figure if I do great in other categories b/c I’m not over-reaching based on points, it doesn’t matter if I finish #9 in the league in scoring. Plus, scoring is easier to find on the waiver wire if needed than some other cats. I realize some of these thought processes are contradictory, but I figure that if any of them pan out, my strategy to not worry too much about scoring would be validated. How’s that for a head-in-the-sand glass is half-full approach?
The other thing I wanted to do whenever possible was to draft dual-eligibility players. That was one reason I liked Sheed in the third round- his dual FC eligibility. Same deal with Vince Carter early in the second. He counts either as a G, SG, F, or SF. That kind of flexibility I figured could only serve me well as I though I kept other managers guessing as to who I was going to draft next, since there was so much flexibility on my team this year.
2) What surprised you?
I was surprised that Guru took Yao with the 2.03 pick. After he had nabbed Iverson with the 10th pick (whom I consider to be a major cut above Arenas, whom I was left with at pick #11) I was not-so-secretly hoping for a little payback with my second round pick. Since Vince seemed so prime for an amazing season this year, I imagined Guru drooling over him. I was then dismayed as Gasol came off the board right before me in round 3, and then Guru added insult to injury by taking big Z with pick 3.10. Well, he was really getting in my way of drafting big early, as did LionPrideGuy at the first turnaround. When I whined about it, he just told me to get used to it. I decided then that this was going to be kind of a brutal draft, in all likelihood. Sure enough, in round 5, at his next opportunity to snipe me, he did just that with Boozer, a guy poised for a nice comeback/rebound year who just happens to be likely to get major minutes and also shoots a very nice percentage from the field- which was what I was looking for in round 5.
I was also surprised James Jones came off the board so early - round 8. I thought he was such an obscure player that as a Pacer fan, I might be able to steal him say, in the 12th round or so. I think he’s going to have a nice year. I’m just not sure if it will be 8th round nice.
I was surprised Joe Johnson went early 3rd round. I have concerns about how well he’ll translate to a team where he’s the focus of the offense and is going to see lots of defensive attention, unlike in the past where he was probably the #4 option. Not sure how he’ll handle double teams and such.
I was surprised at how LONG it was for 20 picks to go by without getting to add to my roster. It was nice getting to pick a second player 3 picks after my odd-round picks, however. On the other hand, being near the end of the draft really was more like having 2 picks every other round. For the most part, I didn’t like that. Once nice thing about it was throughout the draft, I had longer periods where I wasn’t going to be required to come up with my next pick, so I could feel more prepared for when it was my turn to draft 2 guys again.
I was also surprised Jeff Foster and Nene were drafted when they were. I was hoping to work both of them into my starting lineup at some point.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
I joked about having the all-injury team, but seriously, as the draft progressed, to a small degree, I found players dropping that I thought would go sooner, and about the only thing I could figure out as to why was that they were injured in preseason or somesuch. I tried not to draft anyone with significant missed time anticipated, though I did consider Amare with a 12th or 13th round pick. He was taken before it came back to me in the 13th. Oh well.
The net effect of this was drafting my share or more than my share of injured players. I decided not to be too afraid of them if their prognosis was generally good.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Well, I might have taken Korver in the sixth instead of Szczerbiak. For one thing, it would have finally snagged one of Guru’s picks ;-) but realistically, he was a player I strongly considered and instead took Wally out of fear he wouldn’t come back to me at pick 7.11. Someone please tell me that I’m right on that!
I probably would have drafted Odom in 3.11 as well, and Rasheed Wallace at 4.02.
I certainly wouldn’t pick 11th again if I had a say about it, or right after Guru, for that matter.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Hard to say for sure right now, but I like most of my picks. I felt Szczerbiak might have been a bit of a stretch, and if Camby doesn’t stay healthy this year, he’ll be a bust in the early 4th. , and I liked my Al Jefferson (Celts) pickup in round 9 to be a snatch. Sorry, somebody. I know you were all sleeping on him. He’s not going to start, but how long can Blount keep him out of the starting lineup? I really liked my pickups of Vince in 2, Bonzi in the 11th, and Blount in round 14. Also, I think Jason Williams was a steal in the 8th round. I also like Antonio Daniels since I took him so late (end of the 13th round) and think he could blossom into some nice stats this year. I liked Jalen in 7. Like I said, I liked most of my picks this year! Got some good feedback on Mo Pete in the 10th as well. We’ll see if he pans out.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Hmm. I liked several. I’ll have to work on that. I thought Artest early 3rd was a nice pick. I was hoping he’d slide down to me at 3.11 but it wasn’t likely. I also liked Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol in the third round. I liked Jimmy Jackson in the 13th. Chris Anderson may work out well in the 15th as a depth center.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Um, James Jones, Wally World (and I picked him!) and Ming had in fact been taken too high in my view. I knew Guru started with him last year and I thought he had underperformed for a first round pick. But he’s going with him again, so we’ll see.
I was a little surprised to see Okafor gone that early with not the hottest percentages. I thought Andrew Bogut was a stretch where he went. The way David Harrison schooled him in the summer league can’t be a good thing. The Magliore trade didn’t help matters any there, though that obviously could not have been foreseen.
Sarunas Jasikevicius felt like a stretch for me in the 12th. I don’t see him having good value unless of course Tinsley goes down, which is always possible.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Well, there are so many strong teams out there. SkinneeJ comes to mind right off the bat. I thought Guru’s first six picks were outstanding but I didn’t like the middle to late rounds quite as much. The Euros seem to know what’s what and probably will come out pretty near the top yet again.
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| 10 | Dave R
Dude
ID: 3010361110
Sun, Oct 30, 2005, 15:46
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First of all, I would like to thank Guru for again organizing and implementing this, the 3rd RIHC. Once again, the competitiveness and in-depth preparation of all managers is incredible. Although a few selections raised an eyebrow or two, none left me saying "what was he thinking ".
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
One of the things I wanted to do a better job than in the past was to pay attention to %'S. Two years ago, the first year I really ever played a Roto-based system and I didn't factor it all ( although it worked out OK that year ) and last year I half-heartedly kept it in the back of my mind. This year I feel I did a much better job in that respect. I also had hoped to try and get a top flight center early, but it never seemed like I was in a position to do that.
2) What surprised you?
I can't say anything really surprised me, other than what Swish City pointed out, the flurry of draft trading activity, new to the RIHC this year it seems. And I guess Shaq not getting picked until the middle of round 4.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
I realized that drafting on the end, that I might have to take a player sooner than I would have liked, IE Bosh and Sweetney. It was also very frustrating watching player after player roll of your queue with so many picks until the draft came back to the top.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
I probably should have taken a PG with pick 2.12 rather than Ray Allen. I ended up not getting a PG until round 5.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best pick- Lebron and maybe Mason (13.01 ), as a result of the trade to New Orleans.
Two other picks could wind up in either a "best" or worst pick category, taken back to back.
Kenyon Martin, his knee seems to be bothering him still and he I've heard rumblings that Karl's is less than please with him
Sweetney- I was real excited to grab him, but it now seems like he will come off the bench ( although I'm sure he should still get enough minutes to be productive ).
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
If Doug has taken the necessary measures to compensate for Shaq's FT%, and I think he did, I think the Big Guy is a great steal in round 4. I also am really high on Carmello this year, nabbed by Tosh in the middle of round 4.
Jameer Nelson for Mike D also should be a bargain, once Orlando puts him in the starting lineup ( I think it will happen ) and Mark Blount for PR, I think is primed for a comeback year
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
I think Grant Hill, Stephan Jackson, Wallyworld and Andrew Bogut were taken a little earlier than I expected.
I think I would also be a little concerned about Zach Randolph coming off microfracture surgery
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I think everyone's has a representative team this year, but if I have to pick one I would want to change with I'd have to say the Euro's, if for no other reason than we seemed to be drafting off the same list. I think they grabbed at least 4 players right before my pick. Maybe I can get partial credit for their stats:)
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| 11 | skinneej
Leader
ID: 040625911
Mon, Oct 31, 2005, 13:09
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Well, it's about time I got around to doing the recap. With all the travelling I have been doing, I was not able to complete my round-by-round analysis, but maybe that's best! ;) It did at least spur discussion and provided further insight into the methods and how players are valued.
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
The first 3 rounds went pretty much as expected. I did not have any major surprises and got the players I wanted with the 1st three picks. BPA is definitely my focus for the first half of the draft and positional requirements are a distant issue. I like the multi-position players and as pointed out the high shooting pcts especially from the big guys. I project that my team should shoot near 46% from the field and around 80% from the line which would put both near the top.
2) What surprised you?
Not much as far as the overall draft. I knew some of the manager's strategies already from being in previous leagues with many and from observing the last couple RIHC drafts. When preparing for the draft that helped me target in which rounds certain players should go and where I needed to plan to take a player that might not make it back to my next pick.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
My approach stayed pretty much the same except for bypassing a couple higher rated players on my rankings to get Kurt Thomas in the 4th round. I tend to group players in bunches of 3-4 so even when I am sorting my ranking list, players that have an overall score within a half point are nearly equal anyway. After taking PJ in round 9, I began to look at positional requirements and took players that I was high on or would fill a need.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Take Amare with my 12.09 pick instead of Ratliff. Some reports that I have read indicate that even when he returns it will take a year to fully recover, so maybe my draft snafu was divine intervention. We will see. Also, it sounds like Grant Hill was considered a reach to many even though he was the top player on my list at the time. I looked down the list a few players to try and take someone else, but kept coming back to him. When healthy which is the main issue, he provides a very nice complement of stats to go along with the rest of the team. Given his history, maybe this was why others had him lower, but at least the injury is not to his ankle. I should be able to cover him until mid Dec so I hope his return gives my team a boost then.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best picks in my mind were Artest (3.04) and Simmons (8.09). Artest has been a beast in the pre-season and could end up a top 20 type palyer if he keeps his head on straight. The Simmons pick looks really good now after the Mason-Magloire trade, but I considered him to be a steal at this pick even if he was coming off the bench. The Bucks effectively used the small lineup last season, and a three-some of Redd, Simmons and Mason would have still put up nice stats. Now, Simmons should get near 40 mins a game and I expect at least a repeat of last year's numbers.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
I liked D. Howard at 3.07 and K-mart slid all the way to 8.12, which if his knee holds out could be a solid contributer. Late in the draft, players like T.J. Ford (10.01) and Finley (13.03) I think have a real good chance of making impacts.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
As documented previously, I felt Anthony went too early at 4.08, but I was in the minority it appears. In a few of the rounds players were taken in a little different order than expected, but essentially they were taken in the groupings that I had anticipated. Also felt that Chandler and Przybilla were too high, but based on how they finished last year, they are understandable. Someone has to take the big risks.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Well, since I like my team, I probably wouldn't trade, but the Euros and DaveR teams are nice.
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| 12 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Mon, Oct 31, 2005, 21:28
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
I've had decent success with what seems to be the standard one this year, so I didn't see a reason to switch things up. Basically, go for the best player available for the first several rounds (although weighted towards the scarce positions of pg and c). Also, I didn't want to grab anyone early who would hurt in the percentage categoreis.
Starting about round 8, I resurrected my spreadsheet to see what needs I had to address (and used this to help guide my picks through round 12). One thing, last year I thought I might have put too much emphasis on multi-position availability, as it seemed more than half my players were eligible at multiple positions. With the utility and generic guard and forward slots, I feel that's somewhat overrated, so I didn't necessarily use that to weigh players higher. Instead, I went for players who fill in the stat sheet so I could better deal with the inevitable injury or two.
2) What surprised you?
By picking third, I thought I'd be able to take advantage of the proximity of my picks and get two of my top picks by seeing what positions Dave R and the Euros were likely to get. However, that never really panned out, as it seems they always took the second guy on my list...
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
As guys I thought were 'sleepers' perhaps just because they were falling in the 'development league' drafts kept getting taken off the board, I knew I would have to take guys I wanted when I had the chance. So for much of the middle rounds I stopped really using those other drafts as a barometer of a player's value.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
It's easy to say after the Magloire trade, but I actually had my doubts before then - I might have been able to wait a round and get Bogut. Actually my two early centers were somewhat questionable with Bogut and Dalembert.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Worst, I'll go with Bogut again- I picked Okafor with the same pick last year, but he was essentially guaranteed the minutes. It's possible, but not likely, that Bogut will get sufficient minutes to put up comparable numbers. As far as my best pick, there were a number of picks I was happy to have fall to me, but Tony Parker in the 9th was good because I really needed that second point guard, and he's really only missing the 3-pt shot from being a top-caliber pg, and I'm getting the 3's from elsewhere.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Possible steals include Eddy Curry in the 7th, TJ Ford in the 10th, and Marc Jackson at the end of the 12th.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Some players were picked higher than I expected simply because I hadn't done my homework - namely Joe Johnson, and Chris Bosh. Definitely nothing stuck out as a bad pick at the time.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I like the makeup of Doug's and Guru's teams. Similar to what I try to do, they have well-balanced teams. Also, I must really like skineej's team (at least subconsiously), because I just realized that in a live draft I had last week I duplicated his first 3 picks of Marion, Marbury, and Artest - and from the 3rd selection no less.
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| 13 | KnicksFan
Donor
ID: 030815418
Tue, Nov 01, 2005, 18:28
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
My strategy is to pick the best players available, paying little attention to position. I like getting guys who can help in multiple categories rather than specialists. I'd say the strategy worked for the first 3 rounds and then went sort of haywire. At that point I got blinded by optimism for some sleepers instead of going with solid producers.
2) What surprised you?
Nothing really, I knew this would be a tough draft, and everyone was on the ball.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
Well, for some reason I thought Tyson Chandler and Joel Przybilla were the next Ewing and Hakeem, and by picking them so early, I had to play catch up in other areas, such as point guard.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
I would have chosen Dwight Howard in the 3rd round. I was going to do this, but chickened out. I was under the impression that big men would be easier to find late in the draft than swingmen, but really I think there was an abundance of good SG/SFs available. I should have either gone big with this pick or taken a point guard.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best picks are John Salmons in round 13 and Mike Dunleavy in round 9. Dunleavy isn't much of a sleeper, but I think he'll play at the level of a 5th or 6th rounder this year. Salmons is my sleeper, and I tried to get him in every draft.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Bobby Simmons in round 8 was a great pickup, especially after the trade. I also like Eddie Griffin at the end of the 10th round (that was a guy who was totally off my radar at the time), and Dampier.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Grant Hill in round 5 seemed risky because of his history, and James Jones in round 8 is probably a little too high.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I think Euros look the best right now.
At times during the draft I really thought I was in a tailspin, but looking at my squad now, I think I have a good chance, assuming my gambles don't go completely bust. I am extremely weak in FT% and 3PT shooting, but hopefully I can plug those holes with some moves later.
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| 14 | Edgar
Dude
ID: 00458944
Wed, Nov 02, 2005, 07:17
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Allright, the season has started and the Eurogollum is back to defend its ring. Nice to see some thoughts of Swish presented already. Again he has done an excellent job in preparing for this draft and convincing me into making several picks. And the bad news for you fellow RIHC participants is that Swish will even have a more dominannt influence on our team this year because I will be ablle to spend less time on the Hoops thing. Maybe Mike D can hand me some tips how to keep your hoopslevel high while taking care of your kid(s). Tell me Mike!
Like Swish said we were not as well prepared as last year statistically wise but I think still had a very good overview of all players and their respective outlooks. Which is more important that stats. The thing I have learned from playing roto for two years is that drafting based on projections is useful but should never determine your pick. Projections always seem to reflect history a lot more than future performance. It is just the matter of picking the right players that will break out and avoiding those that look nice but will proove to be a major bust. Last year we gambled on LBJ and obviously it paid off. On the other hand we got Marquis Daniels in the sixth round who was a bust. But that is the gamble: high risk, high reward.
Now over to the questions:
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
This draft has been the same level of high quality as it has been in the past. Everyone knows their stuff and it shows. Also still notable is that the C position is overvalued. If you would make a rank of the 300 best players for Roto, there is no lack of C's compared to other positions. However, it is harder to find a good C, that is true. But the Przybilla's, Chandlers, Cotton Camby's, Curry's, Okafor's etc are at a premium price in most roto leagues. As is Shaq, who I would never draft for sure. We decided to grab the best player available in the early rounds, meaning no C's for us. Later on we maybe had to reach with Zaza and Nenad but it is better to reach in the last than first rounds.
2) What surprised you?
Nothing really surprised me. Ofcourse every once and a while a pick surprised me but overall things went like you would expect. Maybe the decision on picking in this order was a bit surprising since no one had a strategy focussing on picking up a specific player or combo in round 1 and 2.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
Well like I said. At one point in time we had to take care of the C slot. Also the selection of Eddie Griffin came just in time to give a major boost to our shot blocking.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Not that much probably. Maybe it would have been easier to draft a C earlier. But like I argued before, there is not a C that stuck out every time we had to pick.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best pick is ofcourse KG. He will be awesome again. But apart from the obvious I really like Eddie Griffin, Diaw and Iggy.
Worst pick could be Amare when he will not appear in the regular season. Joe Johnson might also turn out to be a bust in ATL. On the other hand he has all chances to be a breakout player as well.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Players that I was high on before the draft such as Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh and Stromile Swift. Ofcourse the drafting of TJ Ford now looks a great choice......
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Probably Bogut (who can be good still) and Okafor went a little early. Just as the C's mentioned earlier.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
It would be Guru's. He has such a solid nuclues of proven players that he could be very hard to beat. I really like his first 6 selections. On the other hand I think Guru was drafting too much on historical performance in the past meaning that there is not sufficient breakout material to bring him to the top.
Skinneejs team I like a lot as well.
And Dave R has always been our nemesis in this thing so you can bet on him being near the top when all this is done.
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