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Subject: Which teams still have an incentive to play hard?
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Apr 11, 2008, 10:18
With 6 days left in the season, some NBA teams have nothing at risk, and may very well look to rest their regulars. (Some, like Boston, already started awhile ago.)
If I've done the arithmetic correctly, it would seem that these teams still have something at stake:
Eastern Conference
Cleveland - still needs a few wins to clinch home court advantage in the first round.
Washington - could overtake Cleveland for the 4th seed and 1st round home court advantage.
Atlanta - still hasn't clinched the #8 seed
Indiana - could still overtake Atlanta to make the playoffs
Western Conference
New Orleans, LA, San Antonio, Houston, and Phoenix are all in the running for a top 3 seed. Some of these teams are also in contention for the #1 seed in the West.
Denver and Golden State are fighting it out for the last playoff slot.
Playoff teams with no strong incentive to win
Boston, Detroit, Orlando - their seeding of 1-2-3 is locked up.
Philly and Toronto - Technically, either could still get to the #4 seed - but that's really a long shot. They each have a more realistic shot at the #5 seed - but that would earn them the right (if successful in the first round) to play Boston in round 2, which seems like a deterrent. It would seem that they would just as soon stay in the 6/7 slots.
Utah - they have the #4 seed all locked up. It may be mathematically possible to advance to #3, but unlikely.
Dallas - pretty much locked in to the #7 seed.
Do I have these right? Have I missed anything?
Of course, these situations will change over the next several days.
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| 1 | Tree, in beantown
ID: 513181023
Fri, Apr 11, 2008, 10:36
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Is Dallas locked into the 7th spot? don't they have incentive to play to remain in that slot, and not slip into 8th?
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| 2 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Apr 11, 2008, 10:39
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I should have said that Dallas has clinched a playoff spot, but cannot realistically be seeded higher than 7th. I'm not sure the difference between a #7 and #8 seed is much of an incentive. But I guess they do have that slight incentive.
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| 3 | qwert
Donor
ID: 2910242819
Fri, Apr 11, 2008, 11:24
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I think Philly and Toronto still have a lot to play for. Orlando is a beatable team...Detroit is not.
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| 4 | Tree, in beantown
ID: 513181023
Fri, Apr 11, 2008, 11:26
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i suppose it depends on the top of the standings. i'd like to avoid utah or SA at all costs.
additionally, i think the mavericks have EVERYTHING to play for. a couple weeks ago, they were dead in the water and people were saying they might not even make the playoffs.
since then, they've won 5 of 6, including wins over Utah, Phoenix, and Golden State. The momentum they've gained is key, and losing that in the last few games would not be a good thing IMHO.
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| 5 | Dean Martin
ID: 270402814
Fri, Apr 11, 2008, 12:10
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Although the Magic have clinched their seed, according to this article , Stan Van Gundy does not believe in benching his starters in preparation for the playoffs.
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| 6 | The Bandwagon
Sustainer
ID: 479521116
Fri, Apr 11, 2008, 12:10
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I have Kidd, and I'm afraid he'll play limited minutes now that they clinched a spot in the playoffs. I think Kidd started his pre-playoff rest midway through the 3rd quarter last night. He didn't do anything from that point on ;)
I'm leaning toward trading him today, but to who is the question I'm currently pondering.
I also strongly agree with Tree if I were coaching the Mavs, but Dirk definately needs to heal up, so I figure they will rest Kidd as well.
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| 7 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Sat, Apr 12, 2008, 10:44
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Lakers have clinched the Pacific and secured home court for at least the first round of the playoffs.
They also are within 1/2 game of the Hornets for the conference championship ( with SA & Houston a game behind the Hornets ), and home court through out at least the conference playoffs.. LA and the Hornets have split the 4 games H2H. So what does that all mean?
I don't know ;)
NO plays tonight and could extend their lead to a full game.
My guess is the Lakers will go all out at least 1 more game, but I'm not sure how important all that is for the Lakers and today's papers shed no light.
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| 8 | dpr
ID: 1733917
Sat, Apr 12, 2008, 14:48
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Unless you know that they are going to be sitting I dont really think you can sell the Lakers. Even playing limited minutes you get free trades to move them after there schedule so I wouldnt consider moving them
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| 9 | twolves
ID: 2991339
Sat, Apr 12, 2008, 15:38
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The Lakers have the tie break with New Orleans with the better conference record. New Orleans needs to win the last three to be number one in the conference if LA wins out.
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| 10 | dpr
ID: 1733917
Sat, Apr 12, 2008, 16:19
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the tiebreak is head to head and then confernece record?
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| 11 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Sat, Apr 12, 2008, 16:59
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By what Avery said (Dirk won't play muc in one of these road games), I'm guessing Dirk plays his usual mins today but very few tomorrow.
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| 12 | twolves
Dude
ID: 811161317
Sat, Apr 12, 2008, 18:37
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It is head to head but the Lakers and NO split the season series 2-2.
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| 13 | Soulman
Donor
ID: 016105313
Sun, Apr 13, 2008, 13:10
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Does anybody know whether home court after the first round is determined by seed or by record? Say if a division champ is the third seed, and they meet the 4th or 5th seed (both of which we now assume as having a better record as the third seed) two rounds later - who would have home court? The higher seed or the better record?
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| 15 | Dunkenstein
Leader
ID: 039541913
Sun, Apr 13, 2008, 13:51
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With the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs and Rockets all within a half game of each other, I think they all have incentive to keep playing hard to win. You never know which of the other three you might face in the later rounds, and a team definitely will want home court advantage in each round.
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| 16 | Dunkenstein
Leader
ID: 039541913
Sun, Apr 13, 2008, 13:55
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Soulman, the team with the better record during the regular season has home-court advantage regardless of seed in every playoff series.
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| 17 | Soulman
Donor
ID: 016105313
Sun, Apr 13, 2008, 14:25
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Thanks for the prompt info, Dunk! That means we can add Utah and Phoenix to your list of West teams that still have something to play for. Especially as currently both have the tie-breaker against the Spurs.
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| 18 | Soulman
Donor
ID: 016105313
Sun, Apr 13, 2008, 17:52
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Good lord, what a dismantling of San Antonio at the hands of the Lakers. At least that should keep Duncan active for the remaining games in order to secure a home court record.
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| 19 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Mon, Apr 14, 2008, 07:31
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Suns appear to be " locked " into the 6th slot.
The Rockets would have to lose their final three games or the Spurs would have to lose two of their final three for Phoenix to move into the fifth slot against Utah.
That obviously needs to be adjusted based on Houstin and SAS losing yesterday
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| 20 | Dean Martin
ID: 270402814
Mon, Apr 14, 2008, 14:15
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10- No, it's head to head then division record. Here's a breakdown on the tiebreaker
TWO-WAY TIES
1. Results of games against each other.
2. Better winning percentage within own division (only if tied teams are in same division).
3. Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
4. Better winning percentage against playoff opponents in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
5. Better winning percentage against playoff opponents in opposite conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
6. Better point differential between offense and defense.
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| 21 | Dunkenstein
Leader
ID: 039541913
Tue, Apr 15, 2008, 02:18
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The seedings in the East are locked up, so none of the playoff teams in the East have an incentive to play hard.
In the West, none of the seeds are locked, so all eight playoff teams have an incentive to play hard in an effort to increase their position.
Here's a good analysis of the various playoff scenarios.
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| 22 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 00:17
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If I interpret the link above, it seems the Hornets are locked in at the 2 seed, as long as LA holds off the Kings.
So, does Byron rest Paul and West?
Seems like the Nuggets still have something to play for, assuming they would prefer the 7th seed.
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| 23 | Dunkenstein
Leader
ID: 039541913
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 02:48
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I'm hoping that since the Hornets game is on National TV, Byron Scott will play to win or at least be competitive.
Also the Nuggets' game starts two hours after the Dallas game does. So if Dallas wins, George Karl will know by the half and could rest his stars the second half.
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| 24 | Dean Martin
Donor
ID: 489552616
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 03:53
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Updated playoff picture
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| 25 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 07:16
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Nuggets going for 50 wins
"We're going after 50 wins," coach George Karl said. "No one's going to rest." A 50-32 record would tie the third-best in franchise history (NBA years). . . . If the Nuggets win tonight, the New Orleans-Dallas result will determine their West seeding (seventh if the Hornets win, eighth if the Mavericks win). . . .
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| 26 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 07:23
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Spurs not likely to rest tonight ( with the possible exception of manu )
... For that reason, Popovich will eschew another April tradition. This year, he plans on actually playing his starters in the finale, though Ginobili's status remains uncertain.
"We need to play," Popovich said. "We're still trying to get a rhythm on offense. Brent needs to play with Tony and Timmy."
And so, the Spurs will close the season tonight as they've never before. Win or lose, the next step will be different too.
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| 27 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 08:18
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Nellie plans on starting Baron , beyond that ....?
Davis is set for a milestone tonight: his 82nd consecutive game, marking the first time since the 2001-02 season he has played a full season, and at 39 minutes per game.
"Right now, he's just focused on finishing up the last game," Ramasar said.
Added Nelson, who plans on starting Davis: "I would like the energy to be there tomorrow and close out the season right."
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| 28 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 10:09
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Raptors all to play, but it doesn't sound like much for the regulars
Knowing who their opponent is renders Toronto's game in Chicago tomorrow night inconsequential. However, as meaningless as it might be, Mitchell said last night he expects to use his regulars at least a bit.
"I'll probably split the time up, but I'm going to play everybody," he said. "You can't simulate a game in practice. We need to make sure we're healthy and rested but not lose our timing."
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| 29 | Dilo
Donor
ID: 30912294
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 10:34
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What if there would be a four-way-tie in the west?
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| 30 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 17:46
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Sixer starters to play limited minutes
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| 31 | Yehosh
Sustainer
ID: 181082023
Wed, Apr 16, 2008, 19:10
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The east is all locked up, I'd avoid anyone from a playoff team from that conference
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