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Subject: Weykool's GMD (TP1)
Posted by: weykool
- [2842717] Tue, Dec 02, 2008, 15:48
Welcome to everyone on team Weykool. I hope we can have a decent amount of chatter on these boards to make sure we are helping each other make informed decisions. Please shoot me an E-mail to weykool @ aol (dot) com.
Lineup: Senator Urine Pica Winston Soetal1 Allhair Allstars Heather Gary Dotson Weykool
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Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well. |
38 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Mon, Dec 08, 2008, 19:20
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Oh yeah I know, I mean the problem is that the flex would be sacrificed before Paul would come (back?) in on 12/23. So I'd sell Granger for Dwight on 12/18, but then lose the flex to be able to move a forward to Paul. I could do a double swap with Marquis, but A) as long as Dunleavy doesn't come back, I still think Marquis can be held a LONG time, and B) the swap would come on 12/23 (after Marquis's two days off - horribly inefficient price-wise).
To make things more complicated, I'm going to need to take a cheap guard from Foye in a couple days. And I'm really tempted to make that move tonight and take Westbrook. But at the same time, Westbrook is just pricey enough that it could throw my rotations off. And still, then I'd have to sell Daniels to free up the guard slot for Paul. But I can't take a forward from Foye, because I need that slot open to take Dwight from Granger first...
It's a shame Azubuike can't be counted on because having him occupy a slot would immediately solve this problem.
Ugly, ugly mess. And this doesn't even factor in that I'd be skipping the likes of Nene, Rondo, Rose, etc.
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39 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Mon, Dec 08, 2008, 19:51
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Ahhh, 5 minutes to decide...
Ok, I've run the math and decided that I have to take Paul this Wednesday even though the transition is sloppy. Now the issues:
1) In order to fit Wade, Paul, and Dwight in together at their optimum times, I will probably have to take on a 500k-esque GF shortly. The options don't thrill me, but there are some dense schedules.
2) If I decide to skip Dwight, I could take Rondo instead and avoid the 500k-esque GF. Problem there though is that unless I sell Harris way early or do a really nasty, ugly sell of Bosh-Granger-Daniels early, I can't get Wade back. Which is not an option.
Unless I'm missing something, it seems like I have to do plan #1. This plan, no matter what, requires me selling David Lee for a guard on 12/11. I'd have almost 8 million, but only for a couple days due to the upcoming upgrade to Dwight, so I'd probably take Russell Westbrook regardless. I hate all of the cheap guard options aside from him, and he seems like he could pay off huge. He's been a beast and that team is terrible - he should play a lot. I could take Westbrook instead from Foye right now though.
So it would come down to
A) 2 Westbrook (getting in early, but locking myself in) B) 1 Foye and 1 Lee (can wait and see, but I think Westbrook will be the best option)
And right now I'm -110k short for my rotation, but I don't think that will be a problem with Dwight dropping after the B2B, but plan A guarantees it more so by getting into Hawes a night earlier.
I'm very tempted to do this. Five minutes to decide. Should I go for it? I think I am...
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40 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Mon, Dec 08, 2008, 20:03
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Wow, I just screwed up entirely.
Did the move on all three teams, done at 7:59 pm. Then double checked my spreadsheet, thought I made an error and was throwing away 2 Foyes and 1 Lee vs. 2 Westbrook. So I undid it and got the undo in right at the deadline. Then I realized that I'd be losing that "extra" game no matter what. Out of time, couldn't redo the move.
Expect Westbrook to get 80 tonight. I'm livid. I hate this game sometimes.
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41 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Mon, Dec 08, 2008, 20:17
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Ok, I can breathe a little bit. Turns out I would have missed an extra game because I could have held Foye longer, and maybe this will be good because things can change so quickly. There have already been at least five times this year where a move seemed 100% correct the night I made it, and then over the next two days everything changed.
I still expect him to get 80. I'm not checking tonight. I'm done.
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42 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Tue, Dec 09, 2008, 05:52
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Well that could have gone a lot worse but still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. These price changes are not helping me at all, I should have planned to get Hawes earlier but I had absolutely no way to do it. I'll re-evaluate tomorrow night I guess. As of now I'm leaning towards getting Paul.
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44 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Tue, Dec 09, 2008, 17:48
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New, not so efficient plan that nets me Harris, Paul and Bonner(!) without selling Howard. It costs me Foye a little early, Bargnani (picked him up a week and a half ago), and Granger (who I've actually been itching to drop for a while)... Fly over plan currently to hold Paul, Bosh, Howard, Biedrins and Harris until the cows come home. Duhon only impending trade looming...
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46 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 15:30
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Ariza completely caught me off guard. Tonight my plan calls for selling Jefferson and one of (now) three players who play tonight (Ariza, Foye, Lee) for Hawes (who doesn't play tonight) in order to free up the money. I'm thinking Ariza is now the guy to go since panic is setting in, and then tomorrow I'll move Foye for Barea. Not sure what to do with Lee yet. I'll evaluate some more in an hour.
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47 | weykool
ID: 2842717 Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 16:10
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I moved DH for Paul and will move Ariza for Hawes tomorrow. I think the Ariza train has gone about as far as it can go.
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48 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 16:58
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Change of plans. Holding both Ariza and Foye tonight. Moving David Lee and Jefferson for Paul and Nene. Didn't think I could fit Nene in but now Barea coming in tomorrow gives me a fighting chance. If I don't hit my ideal rotation, I have a passable Plan B (and it's not like Plan A was great anyway).
Let's get nuts.
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49 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 17:00
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I should note that I have 30 minutes to decide. If no one talks me out of it by then, I'm going for it.
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50 | qwert
ID: 188411214 Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 17:13
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*Intruder*
to play devil's advocate SU, you are trading two players who play tonight...and things could look a lot different in 2 hours.
that being said, getting Paul is an extenuating circumstance.
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51 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 17:16
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My plan is this:
Selling Howard, Ariza and Foye and moving into Paul, Harris and Nene.
SU, your plan sounds fine. You'll probably take hits on Foye and Ariza, but at least you'll get their games, and Paul/Nene acquisitions will help soften the blow...
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52 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 17:20
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I'm thinking there won't be any real, real significant hits tonight (except for Dwight) since pretty much every player that people own except for Paul and Devin Harris may be sold in order to free up money for Paul and Devin Harris. I'm hoping for a lot of muted hits. Only nine managers sold Ariza last night, it was one of those light trading night disasters. I'm hoping it won't be too bad tonight.
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54 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 17:29
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I agree... "small" hits is what I meant, nothing huge.
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55 | Pica Sustainer
ID: 161141312 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 06:44
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urrr... so Lee now has to go with very few options available, if any. This is threatening my entire plans.
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57 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 12:25
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Guys, I had planned to have Bargnani off my team by now but went another direction. I don't regret going in the other direction, but I'm not happy that I still have Bargnani. He just hasn't panned out the way I hoped and despite his schedule, I'm thinking about moving him. Should I let him ride a little in the hopes that he pulls out of his nose dive?
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58 | weykool
ID: 2842717 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 13:07
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Unfortunately the cheap options at F or C are not all that appealing at the moment.
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59 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 16:12
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I'm considering making four trades tonight and just getting my team back on track. In theory I wouldn't have any moves then until next week. It's risky as I'm counting on having a 500k non-guard (as in, exactly 500k) to still be available in a week when I need him in order to make my swing, but I don't see any other good way.
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60 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 16:30
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How likely is it do you think that Camby will get out of gravity tonight?
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61 | G
ID: 369542914 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 16:42
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SU
You shouldn't swear on this site. Please don't use the word Camby anymore.
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62 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 16:52
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Haha, he suckers me in every time.
Here's my issue, I've got it locked down:
A) Barea and Camby vs. B) Rondo and Graham or Simmons
A analysis - Barea should be much better than Graham and Simmons and should make more money. But what if Howard suddenly comes back? Also, does Camby get out of gravity? He's been a beast, and by taking him over Butler (a plan I've discarded) I won't have to rely on an exactly 500k GF existing next week and can get back into some mid-rangers.
B analysis - Rondo looks like such a good buy with that schedule, and there is no risk of him being in gravity. Having a 500k GF with a dense schedule could make life easier.
What do you guys think? I am ridiculously torn.
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63 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 17:12
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FWIW, I like option B better. Rondo's playing great, is a nice hold, will likely make more money, and is 1.7 mil cheaper than Cotton. I also prefer Simmons to Graham, but if you think there's a realistic chance that you'd hold a 500K player for as long as possible, Graham's your guy.
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64 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 18:08
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I'm thinking Rondo and Barea will gain equally, but Barea has a better chance to keep gaining (provided Howard stays out). This one's really tough. I like how Camby gets me into the mid-rangers...
Hour and a half to decide.
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65 | Pica Sustainer
ID: 161141312 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 18:20
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FWIW I went Lee, Ariza to Simmons and Rondo.
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66 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 18:26
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This feels like the hardest decision I've had to make and I'm not quite sure why.
It seems like straight up, Plan A should be better. Camby is traditionally greater than Rondo and Barea is much better than Simmons.
One of the things that's making it so hard to decide is the Marquis Daniels issue. In the Camby plan, I have to either sell him for a GF at some point (Simmons...), or hold him for his two days off next week and THEN sell to free up the roster slot for Paul's re-entry to my team. However, in this plan, I have the option of possibly moving Camby straight into Paul, or I could sell him and Biedrins early to spread the money out in order to avoid taking a 500k guy (assuming I hold Daniels for the two off days). In the Rondo plan, I'd already have that GF, and would be getting back into Paul from Biedrins. So I'd be locking myself into getting out of Biedrins early, which may not be good.
I really don't know how I'm going to decide this one. My gut is telling me both.
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67 | weykool
ID: 2842717 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 18:52
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I like the Rondo plan SU.
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68 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 18:58
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Further breakdown:
As far as 500k guys, here's my preferred order:
1. Barea Pros: great upside, likely train Cons: guard only, is Howard going to suddenly appear?, if teams figure him out (aka Morrow) then a valuable guard slot is lost Con for me: Marquis Daniel issue exists, can't get Rondo
2. Bonner Pros: starting, has been solid Cons: not a GF Con for me: Marquis Daniel issue exists Pro for me: Can get Rondo
3. Simmons Pros: starting, always will play, GF Cons: filler, no money potential Pro for me: Solves Marquis Daniel issue, can get Rondo
4. Graham Pros: endless schedule, GF Cons: filler, no money potential, have a feeling I'll check the boxscore and see him play five minutes Pro for me: Solves Marquis Daniel issue, can get Rondo
Basically, I want Rondo but I think Camby fills my specific needs better. If Barea were not on the board, I wouldn't hesitate in taking Rondo. I think there's risk with him but if he "fails" I'll have made money anyway and can get out of him easily.
Right now I'm leaning towards Rondo and Simmons, primarily for A) solving next week's Marquis Daniel issue and B) the lack of Josh Howard ruining everything
I should be happier about this, two days ago I was complaining that there was no way I was going to be able to get all three of Paul, Dwight, and Wade or any of Rondo / Nene, and now I'm going to have them all. Camby wasn't even in my plans until this afternoon - the selling point there really is Barea...
One hour!
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69 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 20:07
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Rondo is in. Last decision is which of Simmons, Graham, or Bonner. Leaning towards Simmons because of the Marquis flex issue and because he's a starter.
I have a bad feeling that Barea is going to punish me.
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70 | dpr
ID: 13443116 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 20:09
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if it makes you feel better I choose simmons today as my cheap player so that i could have the GF for upcoming moves. However to get barea I needed to move foye today and ariza to nene sat instead of the reverse.
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71 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 21:34
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Ok, I have a "problem".
I just realized that I DON'T need to sell Ariza to free up money today, which wasn't originally the case when I was going with my Butler plan.
So the debate:
A) Still sell Ariza for Simmons B) Hold Ariza and take massive losses
Assuming I go ahead with my tentative inefficient / horrifying plan of moving Marquis to Wilson Chandler on 12/21 to free up the guard slot (this is how it's done in plan A, in plan B Chandler would come in from Ariza on 12/26, aka the bitter end), it comes down to
A) 6 Simmons, 1 Chandler (or 4 Simmons, 2 Daniels, and 1 Chandler depending on when I make the move)
B) 8 Ariza
Same amount of trades upon rotation completion.
Points-wise B is a no-brainer. But factor in I only have a 310k window to complete my moves. While this should in theory hold / increase, if Ariza drops massively this week and then people don't buy back into him for a short term hold, then that window is gone. Also, it's December - money is important.
I'm leaning towards A because of the money and window factor. If I can't get back into Wade, I'm essentially ruined and will end up having to use a trade to get out of someone else I don't want to sell, so it could be one trade for +1 Ariza and downgrading someone I don't want to downgrade (and losing a boatload of money in the process). It's already past my bedtime. As of now I'm going with A and I'll stay up for another half hour deciding / seeing if anyone can talk me out of this.
Note: In Plan B, Simmons would come in anyway from Marquis, just late and more expensive. Need that cheap GF, and while I can afford Garcia right now, in a week he'll have me priced out of Wade. So I have to take on Simmons at some point.
So 99% sure I'm doing A and selling Ariza for Simmons tonight.
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72 | deejay Sustainer
ID: 501182710 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 21:45
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Intruder:
Chandler => Simmons is my plan...
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73 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 21:49
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Yeah, it seems like Simmons is only going to go up while Ariza is only going to go down. I want to make sure I have Chandler by 12/26 at the latest (and if I go with A, I'd have him by 12/21). The cheaper forward options aren't good and Chandler is good. And I'll need a cheap forward in that slot.
Maybe I'm planning too far ahead but I feel very locked into my rotation and don't want to waste more trades forcing them. I think I have to sacrifice the points (hopefully not too many...) to get more eventually here.
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74 | Blooki Sustainer
ID: 449292712 Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 01:45
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Re: 70
Don't you know SU by now? Nothing short of a perfectly fluid rotation involving 500K GFC's who average triple-doubles with 8 in 10s will make SU feel better.
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75 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 05:49
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Haha, you're not too far off sadly. I was dreading checking the box scores this morning.
Day 1 recap! So a not-total-disaster from Rondo in a blowout, I'll take that. Camby only up 30k, probably not out of gravity. Barea solid with 21.5, wish I had him, but it would cost me too much money and frustration next week.
I kind of like buying players the night before they play. Less immediate disappointment. Yesterday I went Bosh, Granger, Foye, and Ariza to Dwight, Rondo, Hawes, and Simmons. I thought more people were going to buy Dwight (Blooki, there is nothing more terrifying than waking up and seeing a message from you) and sell Bosh, but I'm still happy with the move so far.
Ariza to Simmons nets 140k on night one. Still not regretting it at the moment, I think in the long run being able to afford Chandler (over say, poop) will get the points back.
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77 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Sat, Dec 13, 2008, 08:42
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Hate this game. Hate this game. Hate this game. Granger and Bosh to Rondo and Howard seemed like a can't miss move...
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78 | Pica Sustainer
ID: 161141312 Sat, Dec 13, 2008, 09:51
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Even though I bought Rondo a couple days ago, I was never too sure about this decision. Now that I'm looking a little ahead towards Christmas, it seems the guard slots are very valuable with Paul, Wade. I am thinking it could be more efficient there are a lot of downgradable options around that time in order to upgrade elsewhere. Just a thought.
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80 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Sat, Dec 13, 2008, 17:54
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What is everyone's sense on Paul at his 1 in 5, and Bosh with his horrid play of late? Howard's injury has muddied the water a bit as I had considered moving Paul to Howard and then Bosh to Paul, but a) I don't know if Howard will be playing well by then, and b) I don't know if I can keep Bosh that long if he continues to put up games in the 20s...
I know I could just hold Paul because he'll gain back anything he loses... Six of us have Paul and four have Bosh.
And then three of us will need to move Duhon. To Stuckney for me right now...
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81 | Pica Sustainer
ID: 161141312 Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 03:19
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AA: that was my plan all along to go LBJ > Bosh today and hold him for 6 games and swap him back to Paul while I trade Paul to Howard on Thursday. During this period (Sunday to next Sat) Toronto has the most games at 6 and under normal circumstances Bosh is a no brainer, but the fact is the potential price overhang is huge with 5 consecutive subpar games and still relatively high ownership it looks like I could be jumping on a sinking ship while everyone rushes for the exit. (And I suspect he'll again lose on the 21st unless he avgs 60 in the next little while to a guy like Dirk and gain a couple games around the Christmas period). I watched the Raptor's last game and Bosh doesn't appear to be hurt but looking at the stats it appears he's just not doing as well with O'Neil around. Perhaps he's still adjusting to playing alongside him.
And now there's Howard as well. He's been proven durable and would have about 5 days to rest his injury on Thursday but who knows if this is something nagging.
The play it safe way would be to get Dirk who appears again lock and loaded, is a long term hold and priced right. But that ruins the whole swapping exercise and just not as much fun. I guess Duncan could be another choice but again there is no transition possibilities.
Regardless of the decisions above, Duhon > Stuckey is a given when Stuckey is announced to the starting lineup. I am very high on this guy.
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83 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 09:33
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I don't know what to do about Howard. They seem to be saying it's not serious, and it would be terrible to sell him only to see him play the next game, because if I did sell him that player would take up Howard's slot.
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84 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 12:09
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Which would you regret more, selling him too early or holding him too long?
From what I've read he's dealing with two issues, and the fact that he might have an MRI on Tuesday (from Pica's post in the Injury Thread) makes things a little shakier still... but there's very little news out there (as you're aware).
If you make an efficient trade, at least you know you didn't lose money, didn't risk missed points, and have a player that's at 100%.
If you keep Howard you risk all of that. But then you'd be able to pat yourself on the back for not panicking if he DOES play...
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85 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 12:27
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Here's how I'm looking at it right now (and strangely, today is one of those rare days where I can't just sit here and over-analyze everything):
I'd need to take a forward from Howard, and I don't like any of those options today (I sold Bosh for Howard...). And if Howard plays tomorrow, I'd really regret that because not only would it cost a trade of getting out of him, it would cost a trade to get back into him from somebody who I didn't want to sell in the first place.
So I think I'm going to hold today. Tomorrow there should be some sort of news (how definitive, who knows, but there has to be something as game time approaches). If he's absolutely ruled out for awhile then I can take someone who plays tomorrow and just chalk this situation up on my "worst luck of all time" board.
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86 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 05:51
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Alright, I held Dwight. Hear he's getting evaluated before game time tonight, hopefully it's good news.
I wasn't expecting Daniels to start losing like this, I thought he was already off the radar and the people who had him would just be waiting until next week or longer. But there is an issue - at the end of next week I'm going to have four big guards (Paul, Wade, Harris, and Rondo). I wonder if I should let the sudden emergence of Stuckey affect my plans...
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88 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 17:13
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Ok, now it looks like Dwight is out tonight.
Anybody against me taking Dirk? He seems to be the best buy at the moment. I really, really wish I had gotten him in the first place now. I guess I just have to chalk this up to horrible luck and move on from it. Bosh-->Dwight-->Dirk, ugh. Holding Dwight now even longer would be insane, right?
Now I'm tradeless too, excellent, so I'd have to wait until the refresh to buy Stuckey if I go that route. Really hating this game at the moment.
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89 | weykool
ID: 2842717 Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 17:59
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As the lone Dirk owner my only question is...What took you so long?
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90 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 18:13
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Seriously, you have no idea how badly I'd like to go back in time and just move Bosh to Dirk in the first place. Think I'm going to just go for it, seems like Howard's definitely out.
This sequence is especially frustrating because I stared at that schedule for a week trying to figure out a perfect rotation, thinking it was impossible. I finally found it, and sure enough Dwight has his first (and second) career DNP randomly. I once again used a trade to lose points and money, and it gets even worse when you factor in Granger's explosion.
I'm not going to dwell on this, and I'll just stick it in my hall of fame somewhere between the infamous "Andre Miller and Elton Brand Night of Amazing" and "Lebron to Webber Season Ruiner".
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91 | Senator Urine
ID: 106171416 Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 18:14
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Keep in mind, I'm about to ruin Dirk for you.
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93 | weykool
ID: 2842717 Tue, Dec 16, 2008, 11:07
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I moved CJ Miles for Stucky. Figured the money would be decent and I can upgrade him or someone lese later.
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94 | Winston Donor
ID: 119543011 Tue, Dec 16, 2008, 11:08
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Foye to Stuckey today and plan Duhon to Rose tomorrow. Don't have $ to go from Foye for Rose's today game.
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95 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Wed, Dec 17, 2008, 07:41
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If you are unsure what the column header means, hover over it with your mouse. A pop up will display a longer definition of the header.
GURUPATRON BONUS MATERIAL The following columns are sartible and reverse sartible. Click on the column header once for the default sort order. Click a second time for the reverse sort order.
Rank | GurupieName | LSWP0 | LSWP | LSWP5 | WWR | FV | Cash | RV | FVC | Trades | 1 | Pica-125 | 2542.5 | 112 | 2542.5 | 175 | 60.14 | 3.78 | 56.36 | 0.11 | 5 | 2 | Winston-301 | 2455.5 | 112 | 2455.5 | 99 | 58.90 | 2.72 | 56.18 | 0.18 | 3 | 3 | Senator Urine-275 | 2346 | 92 | 2346 | 37 | 63.90 | 5.27 | 58.63 | 0.10 | 4 | 4 | allhair allstars-1708 | 2316.5 | 131.5 | 2316.5 | 224 | 59.12 | 3.43 | 55.69 | 0.20 | 5 | 5 | Heather-1769 | 2311.5 | 89 | 2311.5 | 333 | 57.09 | 2.53 | 54.56 | -0.05 | 7 | 6 | Gary Dotson-1393 | 2252.5 | 131 | 2252.5 | 111 | 57.14 | 2.62 | 54.52 | 0.34 | 5 | 7 | weykool-1750 | 2225.5 | 72.5 | 2225.5 | 830 | 59.73 | 2.59 | 57.14 | 0.12 | 4 | 8 | Soetal1-121 | 2147.5 | 70.5 | 2147.5 | 807 | 56.97 | 0.98 | 55.99 | -0.09 | 4 |
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96 | allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Wed, Dec 17, 2008, 07:49
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Pica, nice job on a huge two trading period!
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