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Subject: Week 9 Trade Thread
Posted by: money4later
- [2111213116] Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 23:15
Any experts know this? Will there be price changes tomorrow night? If so, wouldn't it make sense to sell those that are gonna get crushed and wait to buy? |
| 1 | Blooki
Sustainer
ID: 449292712
Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 23:25
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Since there are no NBA games 12/24 or 1/1, there will be no price update or roster freeze on either of those two nights for both Salary Cap Hoops games. This also means that any trade made after 12/23 11pm ET can be undone until the first game on 12/25, and any trade made after 11pm ET on 12/31 can be undone until the first game on 1/2.
Source
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| 2 | money4later
ID: 2111213116
Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 23:36
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Thanks Blooki!
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| 3 | money4later
ID: 2111213116
Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 23:49
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Biggest, fattest monkey to have right now - Crawford! Throws off all plans at this point.
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| 4 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 11:20
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What is the status of Mr. Orlando?
1 Blooki
Would that also mean that all trades done over the two days will all go into the price swings.....I am sure of that....but to point out that we might see some drastic swings because some might trade one day and then the other trade the next therefore a larger chunk to factor into to he swing?
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| 5 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 11:24
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No. The two day period should have no impact on the size of the price swings.
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| 6 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 11:24
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(assuming they process it correctly...)
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| 7 | money4later
ID: 2111213116
Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 12:59
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Went Crawford / Horford >>> D Howard / Posey (little diff)
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| 8 | ole
ID: 4011562411
Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 13:31
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posey is an interesting choice money4later. i went crawford to duhon. considered to drop bonner and hawes but then (a world first!) i thought about how i always seem to lack trades at the end of the season. so hawes and bonner are safe for now.
ridnour with a nice price and sked too... hm, choices...
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| 9 | G's phone
ID: 111039719
Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 21:20
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For the first time this year the ship seems to be heading in the right direction. For today I actually have more trades than current issues. It isn't since before Kirilenko and Boozer injuries that I have been even close to that.
My biggest issue is Biedrins. When I look at his schedule, production and price I can't believe how crazy that is. I really don't want to trade him but I see him dropping a lot before his best sell date game wise on 1/1. As of now it looks like I will be adding a combo of Butler and Perkins just to avoid hits in the days to come.
If all goes well, I just need to go Bonner to Lee on 12/26 and then hopefully I may bank a trade or two.
Merry Christmas
G
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| 10 | ole
ID: 49111256
Thu, Dec 25, 2008, 07:06
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merry christmas to all.
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| 11 | deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Thu, Dec 25, 2008, 07:54
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Merry Xmas
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| 12 | deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Thu, Dec 25, 2008, 08:23
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Spencer Hawes' production has declined since he entered the Kings starting lineup, but coach Kenny Natt is devoted to his development.
"I see him as a starter," Natt said. "He was scoring a lot more when he came off the bench. That's something where he just has to keep learning to make that adjustment." Natt is giving significant run to Hawes and backup Jason Thompson, which bodes well if Brad Miller is actually traded this season.
Source: Sacramento Bee / Rotoworld
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| 13 | Donkey Hunter
ID: 3210231917
Thu, Dec 25, 2008, 09:28
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Went Biedrens/Hawes to Perkins/Lee. Avioded at least some of Hawes bleeding and sold high on Biedrens while freeing up some cash to upgrade Hawes and go Ariza to Diaw tomorrow.
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| 14 | Dunkenstein
Leader
ID: 039541913
Fri, Dec 26, 2008, 02:34
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For all of you Bonner owners who are looking for a cheap forward to replace him, may I suggest you take a look at the Sixers' Mareese Speights.
With Brand probably out another four weeks, new coach Tony DiLeo is basically using an eight man rotation. Speights played 31 minutes against Boston in Philly's last game and got 33 TSN points. Over the last four games he has averaged 26.8 points. And his price is only $800K.
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| 15 | Dean Martin
ID: 581122614
Fri, Dec 26, 2008, 15:29
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Well I decided to take a look at Speights and I like what I see. When he's on the court he is very productive, averaging over 1 TSNP per minutes played last 3 games. Not only can he score but he rebounds and can block shots as well. I haven't seen him play though but he's listed at 6'10'' 250lbs drafted 1st round out of Florida.
If you really need to go super cheap in order to acquire the expensive super-studs he could be a nice short-term alternative to Chandler who despite getting big minutes seems to disappear at times in D'Antoni's system. I mean what's up with that last game Chandler?
Can he escape gravity soon is the question?
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| 16 | qwert
Donor
ID: 2910242819
Sat, Dec 27, 2008, 12:05
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For those looking at Camby, is there anything concrete saying he'll be back for tomorrow's game?
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| 17 | G's phone
ID: 111039719
Sat, Dec 27, 2008, 14:41
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also as a follow up to the post above. The report on Kaman on 12/22 was that he could return on 12/30 or 1/2.
Who knows when for sure but what will happen with the 3 headed monster of Kaman/Randolph/Camby for both minutes and production?
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| 18 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Sun, Dec 28, 2008, 10:17
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Jermaine O'Neal
Nene
and Daniels have all been added
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| 19 | deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Sun, Dec 28, 2008, 10:26
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16
Marcus Camby is ready to play on Sunday after missing his last game due to a death in the family.
Camby was at practice on Friday and should be plugged back into all fantasy lineups.
Source: Los Angeles Times / Rotoworld
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| 20 | G
Donor
ID: 5810561615
Sun, Dec 28, 2008, 19:17
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I look at my roster and see Stuckey and Harris as my two biggest issues. According to TSN:
Harris is #1 in ownership with over 1100 owners and Stuckey is number #2 at just under 1,000.
On teams with multiple trades left I moved Stuckey to Robinson today and Harris to Granger. On teams without as many trades, I will make this move on Tuesday. With a possible light trading Tuesday sell date for the top two owned players, I expect a very nice price swing.
So by getting out early (some may hold Harris until 1/4 or even 1/6), not only will I avoid a potential blood bath in money losses these two face next week, I also get some G/F flexibilty for next week as I adjust my roster next week.
I thought about holding Stuckey but I really worry abour the fact that he doesn't have as clear an easy sell date and since his schedule is the same as Robinson, he may just lose steady each day.
I look at Ming as a possible sell on 1/4 but he has a 4 in 5 starting on the 6th and so now I am thinking hold him until after that.
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| 21 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Sun, Dec 28, 2008, 22:46
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I see G is at it again.
Why not throw Rondo in the mix, especially with his stellar game tonight, and staring at a 1-4?
Blatche too, he has nearly 600 owners, with a big jump coming tonight, probably on the heels of last nights 56.5.
Stuckey, yeah he's a sell, averaging 38 TSN points per over the last 15 days and 11 games in the next 20 days. I could be wrong but he should have plenty of room for more buys, he hasn't reached the level of ownership that Hawes did.
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| 22 | G
Donor
ID: 5810561615
Sun, Dec 28, 2008, 22:55
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So Dave R,
Apparently my moves didn't match yours. Since I am adding Granger and Robinson to my team I would love to hear a better way to do it if you have one. have mulled this one over for 7 days on the beach.
Paul
Harris --> Granger
Rondo
Stuckey -->Robinson
Butler
Jamison
Nene
Lee
Blatche
Ming
As for Rondo, SU sold him and Jamison already a few days ago. Both seemed like holdable players but he thought differently. I missed your post about that one.
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| 23 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Sun, Dec 28, 2008, 23:37
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G, nothing personal, I wasn't being critical of your moves, although I'm not sure I agree with them. For the record, you picked up a player, who just suffered a concussion ( yeah , I know, he was reported to play tonight ) and held a player, who missed the last game due to a sprained ankle ( again, is reported to play tomorrow ). That does seem strange to me. Better yet, risky.
I don't know, it seems these posts about selling players early, just accelerate the process. That's what I find objectionable. But who's to say what's early, right?
As far as SU, I can't understand half of what he's saying ;) As near as I can tell he wanted Wade.
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| 24 | G
Donor
ID: 5810561615
Sun, Dec 28, 2008, 23:49
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Hey Dave,
Don't get me wrong, I wrestled with this for several days. I know it is always risky selling guys early especially when no games are gained for several days. I just didn't think it was crazy to sell a guy a few days early when almost everyone will be selling him in the next 7 days anyway.
Yes I chose to hold Butler (but saw a report that he plans to play tomorrow) and he plays Tuesday too. His schedule is very nice all the way to the ASB. I also watched that Mia/Was game and never saw Butler have an ankle problem. That, no news of an injury prior to the DNP, and the report of his plans for Monday made me hold. If he can just get me the 38 I was hoping for now.
I also didn't sell Harris to Granger until it was confirmed that he was playing tonight.
If you saw my post above I did not make this move on all my teams today because it would have left me unprotected. However, come Tuesday, we get new trades on Wed so I will be safe on the others unless I can find a better way to Granger and Robinson. So while it was risky, I hope to push in points short term and make a little extra cash in the process.
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| 25 | deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 08:29
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I think G the problem is not the moves like Dave says, hell everybody does what he wants with his team, but it are your promotion stunts, that leave a bit a bad taste in my mouth.
And you do it here and on TSN too.
I can understand you want to make cash, but imagine everyone does this.
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| 26 | Senator Urine
ID: 011502111
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 09:08
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For what it's worth, I'm hoping to hold Harris until 1/4 and hold Stuckey until at least 1/18. With Harris I'm hoping the three games in a row will reduce the number of sells, and also the fact that he's essentially a 9 million player for 2 million less (and he's killed the teams he's playing earlier). But yeah, there is a risk of people using him to get to Wade on 1/2, so I'll just have to feel that out. I have an alternate plan that replaces the 2 Harris games with 2 other games, but I'd rather have the Harris. In general it seems that people sleep on Wade though - he was killing it pretty much the entire season and had a good schedule, but still was very low on the ownership level.
Stuckey is an interesting situation. He's playing like a 7 or 8 million dollar player and is only 2.5 (but really 2.1 ownership...). If he has a good game today it should make things easier, as I see only two possible sell dates for him: tomorrow (for Nate) and 1/2 (in a package to get Wade). There aren't any transitions on 1/3 and 1/5 (which won't necessarily stop people), but then on 1/6 he should be a top buy since he's so much better than everyone else anyway. There's the possibility of setting up a triangle, but I don't like that in this case because Stuckey could be a top gainer on 1/6 if he suffers any hits before.
I had a few reasons for selling Jamison so early. I felt his price had peaked and he was playing much worse than he had been earlier in the season. All of his averages were pointing down, which is not a good thing, especially when A) his team is horrible and B) about to consecutively face all of the best teams in the league. I figured he'd be 7.5 million not generating points or money, and by selling him I could get Diaw (2 million generating more points and money) and use the extra money to get Wade early from Rondo. I really didn't want to get rid of Rondo but he was the only good way into Wade. He had two games in the low 30s, and while I'm comfortable in his production, he was averaging 10 tsnp/g less on the road for the season which is pretty significant. As good as his schedule looks, he will not make it past 1/8, and I'd rather have Wade than deal with the day-on day-off "is he going to have a bad game and will I have to sell him for someone I don't want instead of Wade" business. I ran the numbers and it came down to:
3 Wade, 3 Diaw, 2 Harris, 2 Nate, vs. 7 Rondo and 3 Granger
I figured points would be close, but the first option had much more money potential, less risk of being forced into someone I didn't want due to a bad game, and more flexibility. So far I'm happy - if I had chosen the Rondo option, I wouldn't have sold Dirk for Dwight and would have been stuck there. And Granger's concussion would have given me a heart attack.
So in summary, I've lost my mind.
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| 27 | G
ID: 369542914
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 09:43
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Deejay,
First of all you promote your moves and your plans. Go back and read your GMD thread. It is filled with players you want to move and who you are buying. Since I don't have a GMD team this year and choose the trade thread to talk about plans mine is "promotion" but your GMD threads discussion are ok? I am not sure I get that exactly.
Second, I don't alway put my moves out here because I don't think it matters. People do what they want. However, I have looked at my rosters, Harris/Stuckey and a rotation plan perhaps as much as any players I have ever looked at a stituation since playing this game. I still cant find a decent way so I was hoping someone had a better plan than once I have.
Third, I purposely chose to post my plans after Robinson and Granger had started their games so as to avoid any "fallout" from people like you who may have feared a copy cat moves. Yet somehow, you and Reeb and Dave feel I am manipulating the market.
Fourth, I only moved Harris and Stuckey who I owned 5 times each in limted numbers. I still own Harris on my RV team for example so any hits these guy take will impact my teams too.
The reality is based on past experience, Harris and Stuckey will be sold. I apologize for the impact discussing this reality will have on your teams. I was unaware my discussion of selling highly owned players was not ok but it is ok for others.
SU - for what it is worth, I fully understood your moves. While you chose to sell Jamison I find him very valauble as a long term hold. We are on opposite ends of the spectrum there but it made sense for you and your situation and you had logical reasons behind it. I feel my moves yesterday made sense as well for what I am trying to do, but time will tell.
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| 28 | deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 09:57
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G,
No need to take it personal, In the end you do what you want, it is a free world.
It is just how I felt about it, the impression it gave me(with Amare earlier this year in mind).
And concerning the impact, I'm not 12, so I think I will be able to handle that. :)
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| 29 | G
ID: 369542914
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 10:32
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"No need to take it personal"
If you guys would have simply countered with other options or arguements on why I could/should hold with my remaining Harris/Stuckey players it could have been an interesting discussion. However, I read "G is at it again" and "but it are your promotion stunts". These seemed personal so I felt my reply was acceptable.
Anyway, it is over. I still think I may move Harris and Stuckey on Tuesday for the teams I can do it on. I have a full day to think about it and a night full of games and potential injuries to change all that.
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| 30 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 10:38
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Hmmm
I just really have learned that I will not succeed in this game as I feel like i am always chasing this money and as soon as I think i am then there is a sell off before I had planned and then I get stung with losses. If I take the other route then I seem to get stung with hardly any price drops and then miss some big games. Maybe I just am real bad, but I am exhausted with this game and it's wild price movements.
I like the GMD and will only play that next year. I am about a WWR 500 player and it seems to get worse each year. I read "G's" post in the beginning and think What the hell are we selling these guys already for? G does what he wants to but he is on a different track like many others that I can not relate to the process of selling to beat the sell off that I feel should not even happen. Can't trades be used on other guys where points are going to be earned. I think for me to come back the price aspect of the game needs to be diminished greatly so by the year end I am not 15-20 mil behind the leaders...LOL I know it is part of the game but for instance this year I am not even at 50 MIL LOL granted I was gone from here for a while and could only check in a few days a week but damn I just about gave up.
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| 31 | Winston
Donor
ID: 119543011
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 10:52
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CJ, if you follow this board all days you should not be that bad in this game. For the first half of the season we sometime need to follow the pack for money and probably after ASB you can play a lot differentiation and go for extreme points. May be a good idea just follow teams from one or two "top" player. Analysis their move (I avoid use the word "copy") and see if this help. Those players always on top of the ranking year after year are not by coincident.
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| 32 | G
ID: 369542914
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 10:54
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CJ
I agree with you. This game can make you crazy and I guess that is, in a sick kind of way, what many of us love about it.
I think Harris is a unique specimen for all the reasons pointed out above. As Christmas approached my plans for him went from holding him until 2/10 which game wise and pts wise could be done, to selling him on 1/4 and then getting him back on 1/21 to perhaps selling him tomorrow and not getting him back until after the ASB.
I think good arguements could be made for any of these pending your team make-up/plans and current RV.
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| 33 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 11:16
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31
I agree with you. This year though I have not been able to monitor my team each day and if one can not do that then god help you. There are times where I see the great owners in this game jump on a player and then see how that player rises in price, but I just can not see that coming ever. I recently went with J O'Neil but I doubt you will see his price go nutz. I got on board Stuckey late and then comes the sell off so trades become an issue when you are trying to follow all of the time...as if you spend more than the leaders. Because of time frames.
I actually had a good pic the other day...I went with Blatche and scored a great game but when it came to prices again I failed as the herd went with Mbah a Moute which to me was a greater risk but I guess Schedule is great. I have had him before and he was puck and even with 30 + minutes. So my point here is as there are a group of guys that are awesome at ths and I think they disect this daily but in the end there is an element of luck.
Also I took a chance on KG, Daniels, and Diaw (last week).
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| 34 | qwert
Donor
ID: 2910242819
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 13:07
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I think there's luck in that you can never predict how a player will perform in the future, but to be honest making money is not luck at all IMO.
Price movers are based on past performance and schedule (assuming that is why people buy players). It's not just schedule in the broad sense, but getting a sense of when to buy players and when to sell. Players who play on a Tuesday and then begin a strong schedule are always candidates to make a lot of money. Players who have a 3 in 4 or 4 in 6 and don't play on a Tuesday are always at risk of losing a lot of money to end the week.
The reason you didn't make a lot of money on Blatche is because he had already gained a ton.
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| 35 | qwert
Donor
ID: 2910242819
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 13:12
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Not to re-open a can of worms, but I think it's a bit disingenuous to take a swipe at someone and than tell them not to take it personally.
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| 36 | Blooki
ID: 4911302913
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 14:37
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SU is an idiot (don't take that personally SU). He should've waited for me to call him back so I could talk him off the ledge concerning Rondo. Also, he's the one who convinced me buying Dwight super-early was the move so I'm holding him solely responsible for the mess I'm in.
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| 37 | Senator Urine
ID: 011502111
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 15:13
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Haha, Dwight early was either the #2 or #3 biggest disaster in the 11 years I've been playing this game. I still would have made that move 100 out of 100 times. I think we're personally responsible for making his knee explode.
So far I'm happy with the Rondo move. I can just never bet against Wade. It reminds me of a few years ago when I gambled on two mid-rangers who had been dominating (Walker and Odom?) instead of taking Dauncan nd a solid cheapie, I didn't want that to happen again. That was a mess, I remember Walker was throwing up triple doubles and then I got him and he had a string of single digit games, and I ended up reversing the trade into Duncan anyway. It was terrible.
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| 38 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 15:40
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34 qwert
I thought at the time Blatche was down on the ownership.
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| 39 | qwert
ID: 361022217
Mon, Dec 29, 2008, 17:15
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I'm not sure when you bought him but I know he was a very
popular pick up from Ariza and Hawes the weekend before
christmas. You have too look at a player's price history.
It's really all schedule based.
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| 40 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Tue, Dec 30, 2008, 03:21
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Okay I am going to sell Nene but who to go to....Mbah a Moute as I have been puzzled why he is getting so much attention lately. But I guess he does a have a sweet Schedule. Did I miss the gains and is there more to come. Was looking at getting back into Bonner already if those losses are about to taper off? I think what has happened here is I sold this guy weeks ago due to lack of performance and now it looks like he can do it again? Watch me jinx this guy if I but into him. LOL
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| 41 | deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Tue, Dec 30, 2008, 07:49
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CJ you know TSN has ownership numbers this year?
It's pretty easy to take a look there to see who is owned how much....
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| 42 | Senator Urine
ID: 011502111
Tue, Dec 30, 2008, 09:43
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This Nene injury is actually very convenient I think - people are going to be forced to use their last trade on him instead of on getting out of Harris early. I'm not really worried about Harris anymore. I admittedly was ten minutes into the game yesterday, but he really came back strong. There's even a little chatter of Rondo to Harris for the quick +2 on the TSN boards. I'll be holding him until the 4th, taking his three games in a row.
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