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0 Subject: RIHC 2010-11: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sat, Oct 16, 2010, 10:05

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Hoops Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like
fur Guru
2.10 Robert Pack, PG, Team

This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.

3. If you are providing rationales after a placeholder has been inserted, then post it in the draft discussion thread, and someone will copy it over.

4. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Kevin Durant, SF, OKC
Several sentences of rationale.

In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
137Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 11:29
11.10 - Marco Belinelli SG NO
For over half an hour, I went back and forth between Belinelli and Dejuan Blair. I wanted both, and was trying to decide which player could potentially slide to me again in 5 picks. Alas, Blair disappeared the next pick.

It appears that Belinelli's going to win the SG job in New Orleans. If he does, I'll have a player that could score 14-15 points per game, a couple 3s, and some some steals/assists. If he doesn't get the job, I'll probably have to say arrivederci to Marco.
138youngroman
      Donor
      ID: 02934823
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 13:16
for Goldcoach
11.11 Dejuan Blair, C, SAS
He has good energy and nice points and rebounds per minute ratios, with a starting gig (at least for now)this year, an older Duncan I expect more minutes and good production. His steals and blocks are okay and he doesn't hurt in the percentages, overall a good value pick.
139youngroman
      Donor
      ID: 02934823
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 13:18
11.12 Darko Milicic, PF/C, MIN
a long time ago there were huge expectations about him being a future superstar. It did not happen. He played a small bench role his first few seasons. As of late he is getting a starting job but has not shown enough to get drafted higher than this. he should be a nice source of blocks and rebounds and hopefully some points. it will depend on how much playing time he really gets.

12.01 Ben Gordon, SG, DET
my biggest weakness at the moment are 3s. So I looked through the available players and Ben Gordon seemed good enough. He has some competition in Rip Hamilton, but Gordon is also used to coming off the bench and play 30 minutes a game. and that is the value you have to expect in the 12th round.

It seems that we are now nearing the point where we all start picking players not because they get playing time at the start of the season, but because of their potential. let the scrub picking begin. I wonder who is still left in 23 picks.
140Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 16:19
for Goldcoach
12.02 Carlos Delfino SF MIL
The draft is getting tougher now. I had Delfino last year in AAA (got him off the wire) and found that I had to keep playing him. Most nights are just adequate, but then he'll have a really good night. The nice thing about Carlos is that he give stats across the board, even on the "adequate" nights, so he's rarely a drag on the roto team. I was glad to get him this deep into the draft.
141Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 16:20
for Tosh
12.03 - Timofey Mozgov C NY
I know nothing about this guy. Rotowire projects him to zero stats. ESPN has nothing useful. I think I read a twitter note somewhere that he might be the starting center for the Knicks. He's a big Russian guy that can contribute good defensive numbers if he can overcome his early pre-season habit of fouling out.
142Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 16:29
for Florian
12.04 Samuel Dalembert C SAC
Dalembert managed a top 50 ranking last year in Philadelphia while only playing 25 minutes a game. He managed a top 100 ranking the year before while playing only 24 minutes. My hope is that he manages to get at least that many minutes in a crowded Sacramento frontcourt and manages his usual 8-10 rebounds and 2+ blocks per game.
143Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 16:30
for Jasonprof
12.05 Toney Douglas SG NYK
It is a question who will be the starter SG in New York. Some weeks ago W. Chandler seemed to be in, but now Douglas has a bigger chance. He is a very good shooter, from outside too, he feels better Felton's play, they are very efficient together in the court.
144Toral
      ID: 489121816
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 16:43
12.06 Jeff Teague, PG, Atl

I need another PG and it seems to be believed that Teague will take over as the starter over [undrafted player] at some time during the season. He’s been injured during the preseason and so is flying under the radar. If it takes too long for him to pass [undrafted player] I may have a hard time holding onto him I suppose. Could be a solid pts/assts guy, hasn’t shot well%wise.
145Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 16:59
for Gescom
12.07 Wilson Chandler SF NYK
I agonized several hours before making this pick. I didn't really know where to go in terms of favoring a certain type of production, not having major weakness nor strength. Finally I went Chandler who does a bit of everything. He never really built on his promising rookie season but the talent is there. He's starting and I hope he can turn his game around and contribute a bit more than last season.
146Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 16:59
for skineej
12.08 Wesley Johnson SF MIN
My 3rd Minnesota player, how did this happen? He has a good chance to play solid mins off the bench when they go small, assuming he doesn’t end up starting out of the gate. Injuries have kept him down some in the pre-season, so it’s tough to tell what he really can do yet. Not sure what to expect from this rook, but the potential for 3s, steals and blocks was worth a flier here I think. A ton of my late sleepers went since my last pick, so he probably has as much a shot as any of them...at least I hope so.
147Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 20:21
12.09 Lou Williams, PG/SG, Phi

Lou should get quality minutes off the bench in Philly. He can score, hit some threes, and grab some steals and assists. A good percentage shooter for a guard.
148Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 20:58
for Guru
12.10 Yi Jianlian, PF, WAS
Hear Yi, hear Yi! A speculative pick, no doubt. If he can get enough minutes – then he has a chance to contribute in a bunch of categories. It seems unlikely that he’ll be starting, unless injuries create openings. But I think he’ll be part of the regular rotation.

I wanted someone who can get some boards without killing my FT%, so that’s the major attraction. I’ll probably need some patience if this pick is to eventually work out.

149Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:01
for Valkyre
12.11 J.J. Redick, SG, ORL
How could I pass up J.J. when he has a chance to play 25-28 minutes a game and give me the 3's I need w/o destroying my shooting percentage? OK I admit it it's a homer college pick- especially after guru snatched Jianlin just ahead of me.
150Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:04
for sR
12.12 Jamario Moon, SF, CLE
Moon is playing for Lebron. Nobody thought he'd come close to James numbers but he is averaging just 5.2 points, 1.2 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game. Moon has upside as a starter, and if he starts, he may produce.
151Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:04
for sR
13.01 Demar DeRozan, SG, Tor
The Raptors looking to fill some of the scoring void left by the departure of Chris Bosh. He is got some holes in his game. I like how efficient he is (49.9 FG%), but he can’t shoot the three-ball, doesn’t dish the ball, and isn’t a good rebounder. Nice value here, I think.
152Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:22
for Valkyre
13.02 Greg Oden, C, Por
Time for chances- another of those young guys who if he could stay on the court could provide beaucoup blocks and rebounds. One of these years his body will mature sufficiently to be able to cope with his size.
153Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:24
for Guru
13.03 Reggie Williams, SF, GSW
Oops. I was all set to take Oden here. Oh well, back to the drawing board…

Williams had a nice per-game stat line for 24 games last year, but the sample size is small, and this is a new year. Dorell Wright has the starting role at SF, but Williams could still get ample PT if productive. Since I now have both guys, I hope at least one turns out to be productive.

154Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:24
13.04 Shawn Marion, SF/PF, Dal

Narrowed it down to Marion and Hamilton. Both veterans who can play multiple positions. I ended up with Marion who should get quality minutes off the bench. I love his FG% and he does a lot of things like steals, boards, some blocks, and double digit points. Same as he used to do when he was The Matrix, only to a much lesser extent.
155Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:25
for skinneej
13.05 Josh Childress, SF, Pho
His finger injury caused him to slip some I imagine, but the 13th round is about right for a guy with the ability to do a little of everything. Even if he has a slow start, he should get plenty of run in Phoenix, so will be hoping for a contribution from him at some point. Let’s see if the Euro game has added to his abilities to play in an uptempo offense.
156Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:26
for Gescom
13.06 Jason Thompson, PF/C, Sac
Promising big man. Ok Sacramento frontcourt will be crowded this year. But until Dalembert returns and Cousins learns how to stay out of foul trouble, he should have nice PT and contributes significantly. I expect plenty points and rebounds in the first two months of the season. Come January, it will be time to reevaluate.
157Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:28
for Toral
13.07 Richard Jefferson, SF, SA
Low risk option but low reward too? Spent the summer working hard at fundamentals, and some think that he might improve considerably in his second year in the Spurs’ system. If you put together a line of his best stats from among last 3 years with 3 different teams you have a quite decent player.
158Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:28
for Jason
13.08 Mehmet Okur, C, Utah
Okur is one of my favourite fantasy player, but the first unit is changing in the Jazz this year. Okur will be the backup center behind Jefferson, when he is healthy again (one or two month?).

I realized in this round that Okur is a free agent yet, and because of the two IR slots, I decided to choose him. I hope when he is back, he gets 25-30 minutes off the bench, and this is enough to produce well, one threepointer, five rebounds, two assists, one steal and block. In this case it is worth picking up him in 13th round an waiting for him a bit.

159Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:29
for Florian
13.09 Travis Outlaw, SF, NJ
New Jersey signed Outlaw as a free agent in the offseason. He is expected to start at small forward. His numbers in 32 career starts are 12.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.0 3-pointers, 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks. If he manages to put up similar numbers this year I'll be very happy. Apart from Outlaw not producing as well as expected the concerns are Terrence Williams looming on the bench and a possible trade for Carmelo.
160Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:30
for Tosh
13.10 Jonny Flynn, PG, Min
Maybe I will luck out and get a starting PG sometime mid-December when Flynn returns from injury. He had an erratic rookie season last year, but as part of a rebuilding Minnesota team, I hope to get 32-35 minutes per game.
161Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:31
for Goldcoach
13.11 Ron Artest, SF, LAL
A defensive specialist who can have the occasional good offensive game. I hope to get some steals,blocks and a few boards from this pick. I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive stats, just please don't hurt me too much. I hope he's maturing and can last the year without a suspension. Maybe getting that ring will help.
162Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:31
for youngroman
13.12 Richard Hamilton, SG/SF, Det
Rip is getting older and older. he may start but Ben Gordon will eat into his minutes. I will not wait too long if he is not worth it. I guess he is the first man off my roster when the 1st hot pickup is due.
163Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:32
for youngroman
14.01 Daniel Gibson, SG, Cle
lots if potential here. as said before, with LeBron gone there are a lot of stats to get for the Cavs. we haven't seen all the Cavs starters in the preseason and how their time and stat sharing will be. I believe that Gibson has the skills to earn more playing time.
164Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:33
for Goldcoach
14.02 Ramon Sessions, PG, Cle
Wow! I think this may be the steal of the draft on my roster. He's been playing starter minutes in preseason and it looks like that's going to continue at least into the near future. He scores and gets fouled which helps as he does well from the line. He may have SG status before long as he has been starting there, which will be another plus to an already talented and young player.
165Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:33
for Tosh
14.03 Kirk Hinrich, PG/SG, Was
Believe it or not, at the age of 29 ... Hinrich is the oldest player on my roster. Just another guy that you get in round 14. If he gets a starting SF gig in Washington (which would also give him more positional flexibility), I should have a rosterable player. If he comes off the bench ... see ya' later old man.
166Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:34
for Florian
14.04 Rodrigue Beaubois, SG, Dal
Rodrigue showed his potential when given the chance last year. This was supposed to be his year to start at SG, but he is still in a walking boot. Hopefully he recovers soon and manages to put up decent numbers in ppg, 3PTM and steals. He can spent time on my injury reserve for now.
167Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:35
for Jason
14.05 Josh McRoberts, PF, Ind
By this period of the draft I had enough players for PF and C positions but I thought McRoberts could have a good year, when he is a starter in Indiana, at least at the beginning of the year. I know he will some problems with the fouls, and there is a strong competitor with Hansbrough in the board, but McRoberts's per/minutes production is very impressive. If he get enough minutes he will good at rebounds, steals an blocks with a good FT% an some threes. The only problem is with the shooting from the line.

168Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:36
for Toral
14.06 Shelden Williams, PF, Den
Got back to me fast this round and as I tried to put some names together and saw that planned pick Beaubois was gone. Looking around I thought I had a nice 14th round gem in Josh McRoberts. Went to queue him up and found that I was up and McRoberts was gone, taken by Jason. Williams is starting until Kenyon Martin returns and was a PF on the tattered remnants of my lists and notes. If I had stopped to think a bit longer I would have taken Hawes, who was at the top of my round 15 sleeper list. Should have taken him here.
169Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:42
for Gescom
14.07 Rudy Fernandez, SG, Por
It seems I can't do a draft without picking Rudy at some point. Certainly some emotional affect to a guy who is an incredible shooter. He's unhappy and Portland backcourt is crowded but he had a nice preseason and can convert himself into an fantastic point and threes producer any minute should there is injury in front of him or a bit more trust from the coach. Definitely a sleeper.
170Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:42
for skinneej
14.08 James Jones, SF, Mia
Strictly a pickup for a cheap source of 3s filling in for the injured Mike Miller in Miami. Somebody has to stand in the corner and shoot 5-6 bombs a night when the big 3 pass!
171Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:45
14.09 Spencer Hawes, C, Phi

I like Hawes for blocks, boards, and some points. He was getting good press from the Philly camp early on and then sat out the last couple of days and may have been forgotten about in drafts. He’s supposed to be ready for opening night. It seems like they want him to play decent minutes since he’s basically their only center.
172Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:45
for Guru
14.10 Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, Phi
You’d think that by the time we got to round 14, the picks would be less predictable. But my short list has gotten obliterated. Sessions, Outlaw, Gibson, Childress, McRoberts, … and then Hawes.

I’ve been scouring various sites for thoughts on sleepers – and Young appeared somewhere. A couple of sites have him listed as a starter – although I think that’s speculative. Age 22, with potential for steals, points, and treys. We’ll see.

173Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:47
for Valkyre
14.11 Jermaine O'Neal, C, Bos

The guy is only 32- He averaged 13 PPG, 7 boards and 1.5 blocks the last 3 years. With all the Bost injuries he'll get as many minutes as he can handle and when Perkins comes back I'll just send him to the bench or waivers- Good Nov-Jan pick up.
174Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:51
for sR
14.12 Will Bynum, SG, Det
In my opinion, Bynum is Detroit's best point guard. He will be backup for the Pistons during the regular season behind Rodney Stuckey. Should anything happen to Stuckey, Bynum may push for big minutes.
175Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:52
for sR
15.01 Joel Anthony, C, Mia
The starting center in Miami. He will have to do most of the dirty work while the superstars around him do the scoring. Obviously Anthony will be a last resort on offense, but he'll still get at least three or four dunks a night. In addition, he'll grab some rebounds and block plenty of shots. Exactly what I need.
176Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:54
for Valkyre
15.02 Josh Howard, SG/SF, Was

Howard is 30 and until his knee injury last year and trade to Wash was a true statstuffer at SF for a number of years. Hoping he can return to form sometime in late December. If not he is 15th round pick #170.
177Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:55
for Guru
15.03 Brandon Bass, SF, Orl
Has had a good preseason, and although not starting, will be in the regular rotation. If he continues with his preseason output, then he may work his way into my lineup. If not, he may be the first guy dumped.

I might have taken Haslem here if I had realized he was still available. For some reason, I had though he was taken several rounds ago. I guess that was a different draft I was remembering.

178Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:57
15.04 Udonis Haslem, PF/C, Mia

Still a few guys I liked here, and this is my last pick. Haslem ended up my choice because he is the first big man off the bench in Miami and when Joel Anthony plays in front of you, you play decent minutes.

A terrific rebounder who shoots a high FG%. He may get close to 10 ppg, but regardless, is a steady player who is hard to get out of the game because he adds so much “real” value to his team.
179Mike D
      ID: 489522120
      Sat, Oct 23, 2010, 21:58
for skinneej
15.05 Ty Lawson, PG, Den
Can you say Billups insurance? For many other teams he could start and put up great numbers, but here’s hoping Billups stays healthy as well as the rest of my team. Besides, I now have two guys named Ty on my team!
180Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Oct 24, 2010, 20:30
for Gescom
15.06 Nedad Krstic, PF/C, OKC

The sleeper of the century. But he's starting and should present a decent amount of rebounds and blocks. May be the first player to cut should there is a waiver fire drill.
181Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Oct 24, 2010, 20:31
for Toral
15.07 Donte’ Greene, SG/SF, Sac

Loaded up my queue with various last-round oddities, and Greene must have been on top. Just your average 6’11’ SG/SF who combines blocks and 3s, Greene has been named starting SF and might have some fun in the new up-tempo offense. I confess I don’t know what kind of stat line to expect from him as a full-time player in such a situation.
182Mike D
      ID: 549362418
      Sun, Oct 24, 2010, 23:23
for Jason
15.08 Marvin Williams, PF, ATL
My team had a lack of small forwards, the only two are Kleiza and J.R.Smith. I had to strenghten in this position with somebody, who is a starter with sufficent presence on the court. Last year he played 30 minutes per game, I would be satisfied with it this year too. It was very important for me his block potential and his very good (above 80%) FT%.
183Mike D
      ID: 549362418
      Sun, Oct 24, 2010, 23:24
for Florian
15.09 Tayshaun Prince, SF, Det
Prince's numbers are similar year after year: 13-14 ppg, 5 boards, 3 assist, decent FG%, .5 steals/blocks/3PTM. Hopefully he manages to put up similar numbers this year.
184Mike D
      ID: 549362418
      Sun, Oct 24, 2010, 23:25
for Tosh
15.10 - Ersan Ilyasova, PF/SF, Mil
I have narrowed it down to three guys that I think will be useful. Hopefully I can get one now, and another as a injury-replacement waiver claim in a couple days. I think Ilyasova is the most likely to get picked in the final two picks, so I'll take him now. I really don't know much about this guy, but he's playing a lot of minutes in the preseason, and will assist in the big man categories that I'm a little concerned about.
185Mike D
      ID: 549362418
      Sun, Oct 24, 2010, 23:26
for Goldcoach
15.11 Chase Budinger, SG, Hou
Three Points...Three Points...Three Points.....
186Mike D
      ID: 549362418
      Sun, Oct 24, 2010, 23:27
for youngroman
15.12 Marcus Thornton, SG, NO
I don't know why he got no love in RIHC. he went much earlier in all other leagues. if the reason is simply that his defense is not good enough to get reasonable minutes, then so be it. but there will be stretches where defense will not be necessary and that can be his time. and at some point even Thornton should be able to play some defense.
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