| 0 |
Subject: Week 1 Rotohog Premium trade thread
Posted by: Pica
- [24950227] Thu, Oct 28, 2010, 08:04
What to do with Lebron? I can feel he's due for a free fall. |
| 1 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 28, 2010, 09:18
|
Just a heads up: There are still quite a few scoring errors. In particular, a lot of players who had no free throw attempts are being charged with missed FTs.
|
| 2 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Thu, Oct 28, 2010, 09:22
|
I bet Dwight gets many buys tonight but from whom do those come from?
Had heard James mentioned but he has a 3-5 and that same 5 Dwight only has 2 games.
I am holding the trades for now...and I even have Bosh but not enough money to get Dwight. It would mainly only be for chasing money. With so many cheaper options in the game this year is money really that important as past. If after the ASB I have less than others but I can buy a roster just fine with 10 less mil then why should I fret about using a trade now. In the past YES it would kill you come near the end of the season when owners have 10 to 20 mil more. I am not sure that has as much weight this year?
|
| 3 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 28, 2010, 09:22
|
Top ten in ownership:
Blake Griffin - 75%
Kevin Love - 63%
Jrue Holiday - 62%
LeBron James - 50%
Amare Stoudemire - 45%
Austin Daye - 30%
Luke Ridnour - 28%
Marcus Camby - 22%
Deron Williams - 22%
Pau Gasol - 21%
|
| 4 | G
ID: 18992814
Thu, Oct 28, 2010, 15:09
|
I agree Lebron will lose some tonight but Howard will lose in two days so out of the frying pan into the fire for those that go James --> Howard. Most likely holding all players for a few games until I have a better feel for how these money swings will work.
Post 3 has 7 or 8 of my 10 guys on my teams.
|
| 5 | tothreeball
Dude
ID: 09118139
Thu, Oct 28, 2010, 15:27
|
Holding onto my roster for a few games as well to see how things go.
|
| 6 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 28, 2010, 15:58
|
A few quick observations on the opening price changes:
1. There may be an anti-gravity component. There are some players who had price gains even without any current buys - if they were already owned. This may be a function of both ownership level and price.
2. It looks like price level may have a bearing on price changes. For example, Jrue Holliday gained $80K on 12 buys, while Deron Williams gained only $40K on 13 buys.
|
| 7 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Thu, Oct 28, 2010, 19:31
|
I saw that too and I have moved to HOLD until I can see spending trades to move in and out knowing what kind of price change I will have. This has really pushed me to Hold and the longer I can do that the better.
|
| 8 | tothreeball
Dude
ID: 09118139
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 09:58
|
Is the market affected by the basic game, or is the pricing model based solely upon the 278 registered teams in premier and their trades. In any event player value certainly seems to affect the price change and gravity component.
|
| 9 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 10:30
|
If anyone wants to do some more research into the repricing formula, I will start saving an extract file of all of the previous night's price changes for both the premier and basic games.
Data items captured (sorted alphabetically):
page #
name
team
position
price
id
buys
sells
volume
ownership
ownership %
For the premier game, the most recent file will be here:
http://rotoguru1.com/hoop/tsn/fphlast.html
For the basic game, the most recent file will be here:
http://rotoguru1.com/hoop/tsn/fbhlast.html
These will be run each morning at approx 6:30am ET.
(Unfortunately, I do not have these saved for the Wednesday night price change.)
|
| 10 | damoose7474
Leader
ID: 181042723
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 10:39
|
well just looking at the first player on the list...how does aaron affalo go up .03 without any buys?
|
| 11 | damoose7474
Leader
ID: 181042723
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 10:45
|
if I'm reading this correctly in excel format, like 45 players gained .03 without any buys....7 players gained .02 with one sell and no buys
|
| 12 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 12:30
|
My guess is that there is some form of anti-gravity, which gradually pushes up the prices of players if their price is below some ownership-dependent threshold.
|
| 13 | tothreeball
Dude
ID: 09118139
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 13:55
|
Didn't have access to the basic prices but clearly they are 2 seperate pricing models. With a sample of 278 for premier, the formula will become apparent pretty quick.
Re 12, agree, and on low ownership guys the threshold may be around $1M. Ben Gordon, 3 owners, no trades, -$.03
|
| 14 | twolves
Dude
ID: 811161317
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 18:36
|
Deron looks like he adds one owner yet goes down in price?? If he is owned by 22% that seems strange unless there is a RHP/price related factor or higher ownership of lesser priced players.
|
| 15 | Dunkenstein
Leader
ID: 039541913
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 19:25
|
RH uses it's own weird price change algorithm because they were contractually not allowed to use TSN's. As best as I can understand, buys and sells are the primary component of the daily price change. But there is another factor which tries to move price towards what RH referred to at the beginning of their baseball pricing fiasco as an equilibrium point. Their aim with their original baseball pricing formula was to move a player's price to a certain price based on his percentage of ownership. So if a high priced player had a low ownership percentage, their price would drop in an effort to reach the equilibrium point that RH felt corresponded to that ownership level. Conversely, a low priced, highly owned player saw his price rise in an effort to reach that equilibrium price.
When they changed their formula after a flood of complaints about how they were screwing up the game, they kept a portion of their old formula in their new algorithm. That's why on the first night's price changes LeBron had no buys or sells and lost $30K, Camby had no buys or sells and gained $30K.
RH also factors in in a players percentage of buys or sells into price drops and gains. As a RH rep explained to me when I questioned why Pau dropped $600K on only 7 sells: "Pau Gasol was sold more than another player and therefore had a large negative price change. Chris Bosh had the 2nd highest number of sells and lost 150,000. Several players had just one sell each and went down $50,000.
"This is also consistent with how pricing worked last year with the main difference being that there are a lot fewer transactions per player on
average this year."
|
| 16 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Fri, Oct 29, 2010, 20:55
|
I never am very good at the price changes so this might actually help me....LOL But I think it is insane to say they can not use a formula someone else used....Like can you get a patent on a formula? really can they just get a formula and call it theirs and not have a player who has buys go down in price when players with ZERO buys gain in price....HILARIOUS...but I knew this when I bought my three pack of teams.
|
| 17 | Pica
ID: 24950227
Tue, Nov 02, 2010, 11:22
|
Needless to say, tonight is an important game for Batum. If he tanks again he'll be unholdable.
|
| 18 | El Jirafa
ID: 41046220
Tue, Nov 02, 2010, 21:46
|
He's TOAST!
|
| 19 | reebbertxx
Dude
ID: 561124720
Tue, Nov 02, 2010, 21:59
|
Batum is probably the worst 2 day hold ever. Cbg could probably remind me of someone worse but I bet its close.
|
| 20 | DrD
ID: 169403122
Tue, Nov 02, 2010, 22:07
|
I knew I should trade him today, but was caught without a trade to use. Live and learn.
|
| 21 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 01:16
|
Okay I have to sell where to go?
|
| 22 | CJ
Leader
ID: 499271021
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 01:54
|
I am probably missing something...but how many trades we get each week? I seem to have Plenty to say the least.
|
| 23 | Comic Book Guy
ID: 20817160
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 02:44
|
19
Sold Batum (and LeBron---I was the guy who still had him) before 9:01 PST. What a miserable first week for me.
I can't recall if he was only a two day hold, but remember two years ago when Anthony Morrow quickly went from a hot buy to a healthy DNP?
|
| 24 | El Jirafa
ID: 541046313
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 14:46
|
How and when do they release makeup schedule for the Nicks-Magic game that got scrubbed at the asbestos rat shack:)
|
| 25 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 15:07
|
How?
1. Find dates that are open for all three of the Knicks, the Magic, and MSG.
2.Eliminate dates that would result in 3 back-to-back games for either team, if possible.
3. Eliminate dates that would require unreasonable travel for either team - e.g, in the midst of west coast road trips.
4. Figure out the best fit, and secure whatever approvals are needed.
5. Announce.
When?
Whenever they figure it out. I doubt if there is a big rush, since it's only early November.
|
| 26 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 15:27
|
I just did a quick comparison of the schedules for the two teams, and only 8 dates satisfy the top two conditions - without regard to the availability of MSG on those dates.
None of those 8 dates would create travel issues.
Next, I looked up the MSG schedule for those 8 dates. Only one of those dates has no announced event - March 28. Three dates conflict with concerts (Phish or Lady Gaga), two with the Westminster dog show, one with a hockey game, and one with the NIT tournament.
So my best guess is March 28.
|
| 27 | Addicted
ID: 111013214
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 15:52
|
David Stern: "You Da' Man Guru!"
--Addicted--
|
| 28 | reebbertxx
Dude
ID: 561124720
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 21:23
|
So am I the only one who jumped on Hibbert super early?
|
| 29 | G
ID: 441412322
Wed, Nov 03, 2010, 22:30
|
Hibbert has an owner or two already but that may be "super, super" early. He may be Mr Pacer this year or he may be the same Hibbert we all bought last year after his hot start only to see him pull a Batum on us. Sub 30 tonight but still a decent night. Time will tell. He is on my list down the road for sure.
|
| 30 | El Jirafa
ID: 481029410
Thu, Nov 04, 2010, 11:29
|
Truly the GURU THX
|
| 31 | DrD
ID: 169403122
Thu, Nov 04, 2010, 12:57
|
How can one find out the total ownership for the players? How many own Camby and how many own Millsap for example?
|
| 32 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Nov 04, 2010, 13:41
|
Data is readily available at the RotoHog site.
For a single player, click on his name, and then when the pop-up page appears, click on the financial history tab. You can see a day to day history of ownership numbers.
To see (or sort by) ownership numbers for all players, go to the "Buy Players" page, and select "Financial History" in the menu where the default value is "Current Season Stats". Click the Search button, and you then get a list of financial info (buys, sells, ownership, etc) that can be sorted by clicking on any column heading.
|
| 33 | DrD
ID: 169403122
Thu, Nov 04, 2010, 14:13
|
I found it. http://rotoguru1.com/hoop/tsn/fphlast.html Thanks!
DrD
|
| 34 | DrD
ID: 169403122
Thu, Nov 04, 2010, 14:21
|
Your last way is a lot easier. Thanks again.
|
| 35 | El Jirafa
ID: 30103422
Thu, Nov 04, 2010, 23:03
|
Looks like a bit of Griffin flowed into Milsap ehhh.
|
| 36 | El Jirafa
ID: 30103422
Thu, Nov 04, 2010, 23:19
|
Why are player buys and sells locked red bar mid screen???????????
|
| 37 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Nov 30, 2010, 17:45
|
[26] I believe I got that right!
|
| 38 | Kairii
ID: 1372437
Wed, Aug 03, 2011, 08:24
|
I can't believe I've been going for years wthuiot knowing that.
|
| Rate this thread: | If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time. If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating. If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here. |
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message:
|