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Subject: RIHC 2014-15: Draft Recap
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Thu, Oct 23, 2014, 10:04
Now that the RIHC draft has finished, I invite each of the participants to share any reactions that they have. Feel free to say as much or as little as you wish. As a guide, you might consider the following questions:
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
2) What surprised you?
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Outsiders who were not participating in the draft are also welcome to share their general reactions.
Draft listing and grid for RIHC |
| 1 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 23, 2014, 10:39
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As I disclosed midway through the draft, from the outset I planned to punt assists. In the last three RIHC seasons, I’ve accumulated a total of 4 ranking points in assists (1, 2, and 1). Even so, I finished in the top half of the league in two of those three years. I figured that if I configured my draft to fade assists from the get-go, I’d be better situated in the other cats.
When you sort your rankings to exclude a category, you do get some interesting results. The trick is still to figure out how long to wait on certain players. Just because they sort high on my adjusted list doesn’t mean I have to take them quite that high. On the other hand, if I see I player that I really want, I wasn’t about to play guts by holding out too long.
I hadn’t really planned to lock down blocks by round 4, but with Ibaka and Jordan, that’s where I found myself. I again decided to rerank players to deemphasize (and eventually to exclude) blocks. It also meant that I had to be attentive to FT%, since Jordan really hurts that category, and I didn’t want to be punting a second category.
Whether I succeeded in all of this remains to be played out. But I’m content with the results.
The biggest surprise was having Durant fall to me at 2.04. Of the four RIHC drafts, I was the latest to get him. If he really does get back to action (and reasonable form) in December, this was a real coup. On the other hand, with deep rosters and a short bench, this does hamstring my flexibility somewhat while waiting. He may turn out to be my “make or break” player this year. Regardless, I expect to be slow out of the blocks this year.
The pick I’m least enthralled with is Tristan Thompson. He’s in a completely revamped situation, where prior year stats are probably completely irrelevant. At the time, I was trying to get one more rebounder, and he looked like the top candidate. But pick 129 (round 11) may be too optimistic. Last year, he ranked only 147 on the ESPN player rater, and he figures to get less time this year – so he’ll really need a goose in productivity to make this work. Possible, but probably not a good bet.
There were a few times (as there always are) when guys I was targeting got away from me. I think the earliest was Oladipo, who I hoped to land as my primary PG at 5.09 – but was picked at 5.07. Then after that turn, Markieff Morris was taken one pick ahead of me. I was hoping for Patrick Beverly at 9.09 (taken at 9.04). None of those guys were “must-have”, but all were at the top of my queue at the time. Having said that, I didn’t think this draft was as brutal in that regard as those of other years, and I suspect that’s partly because of my assist-tanking approach and the resulting discrepancies in my rankings vs those of many other teams.
I don’t spend much time evaluating other teams, but based on some quick analysis, the most competitive look to be Da Bomb, Dave R, Tosh, KnicksFan, and Youngroman. So I expect the champion will end up coming from the other half of the league – since those teams have obviously found more diamonds in the rough.
I want to thank everyone for keeping the draft moving at a good pace. Not too slow, not too fast. We finished in about 6.5 days. Last year's draft took more like 8 days. Rationales were also generally produced more timely than in some years, and I didn't have to do much cajoling in that regard.
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| 2 | Tosh
ID: 41727116
Thu, Oct 23, 2014, 16:35
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Thanks to everyone for a quick and painless draft.
I am surprised that Guru chose to punt assists, since it's even more important now to manage the percentages. When he added Deandre Jordan, he blew his chance of winning FT%. Last season I had Dwight Howard, and was able to finish with 7 points. But I also had a full season of Durant shooting 703/805 (.873), and a lot of micro-management. If Jordan proves to be a serious drag on Guru's FT%, he'll really be wishing he had some assist guys.
I don't go into the draft with a strategy, but let one develop after the first few rounds. But generally, I try to look forward to my next pick and anticipate what players will be available. If there are going to be a lot of bigs, I probably won't take a big in the current round. And I don't like to chase 3pts in the mid-rounds of the draft. There are generally plenty of 1-trick shooters available in the later rounds.
I certainly did not intend to pick PGs with 4 of my first 8 picks. But I kept picking PGs with injury histories (Paul, Rose, Carter-Williams), and kept wanting backups. So when I needed to bolster my big-man stats, I was maximizing with C or PF. This led to my roster not having an real-life SF on the entire 16-man team. I certainly not intend to do that. I only selected SG-eligible players in rounds 9, 13, 14, 15. I'm concerned that my lack of depth in the swing-players will come back to haunt me.
My pick I like the most was Derrick Rose at 4.08 (#44). He's a tremendous injury risk, but he has MVP-talent. It's risks like this that make or break a fantasy season. The pick I like the least is probably Carter-Williams at 7.05 (#77). He's also an injury risk that does a lot of damage to my FG%. That category will probably require the most work for me this season.
The player I feel sorriest for is Kevin Garnett. The poor guy didn't get picked in 192 opportunities.
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| 3 | RJ
ID: 127421316
Thu, Oct 23, 2014, 23:41
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
I chose to build on the strength of FG%, rebounds, and points. I've historically been maybe a B as a drafter but I would give myself an A as a waiver wire guy. I'm known for leading leagues in moves made so I like to shift around a lot during the season. I think I have some good core guys to build around and maybe I'll find one or two FA fliers along the way. Another nice thing about drafting late is getting good priority which can be both a blessing and a curse... when do you use the priority?
2) What surprised you?
Nothing too surprising. I really liked the draft flow.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
Just trying to keep up with stats that I was weak in.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
There would have been other sleepers I targeted. I am pretty happy overall.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best Pick: Wade, I think he could be a nice value and will put up solid stats as long as he plays 60 games or so it looks like a great value.
Worst Pick: Wroten, probably too early to have taken him, he was kind of a rushed pick but anything can happen.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Draymond Green for sure. He could be really strong if he gets big minutes. I also like Noel with the proverbial "if he can stay healthy..."
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Wroten, I admit I probably could have done better here.
Rondo, I do like that he's in a contract year and can put up big numbers, I just would have went with someone safer this early.
It's all just speculation at this point though, that's why they play the games.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Dave R, I think he's got a solid all around squad.
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| 4 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Fri, Oct 24, 2014, 08:52
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
I generally try and draft guys with good %'s, but invariably fail. That went out the window early when I drafted Drummond in the 2nd
2) What surprised you?
Nothing, as usual in this league, for the most part you can't wait and hope someone falls to you
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
It didn't
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
After drafting Drummond, I had mentally committed to taking DeAndre in the 3rd or 4th round. For some reason when my time came, I couldn't pull the trigger knowing at that point I would have committed to tanking FT%. In retrospect, I'm at or near the bottom anyway, so I just should have pulled the trigger
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Based on average draft positions, my best pick is Faried, he fell to me at pick 58, he was drafted as high as 34th, with and ADP of 45 in RIHC leagues. I also like Drummond, despite drafting him what appears to be early, I'm expecting a monster year.
Worst pick is probably Olynyk, there were better choices in that round
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
I love DaBomb's pick of Sullinger, and Reebs pick of Pau ( I think he might outrank his brother by the end of the year )
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
I think Rondo with pick 27 is way ahead of his ADP in other leagues ( he went 47,55,75 in the other leagues )
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
DaBomb, Tosh and Guru's squads look to me to be the top teams
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| 5 | stramonio
ID: 12831915
Fri, Oct 24, 2014, 11:39
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
First thing for this draft. Percentages.
Last year I had a good result in Triple A with third place, but bad percentages in both FTs and FGs killed me. I think I've done a good job in this categories, is to see in others...
2) What surprised you?
Nothing particular. Maybe Durant picked that late. I had other drafts with italian friends and KD has always been taken in first picks like there was no injury.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
No changes. Always addressing categories where i felt i was weak pick by pick.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Difficult to say right now. Maybe I missed a real blocker. You need just one good blocker in your roster to turn things right but I have none.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best: I like Jeff Teague at fifth round
Worst: David Lee too early in fourth round.
Anyway if you switch them is ok.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Nerlen Noels, Kobe Bryant
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Rajon Rondo, David Lee, Klay Thompson
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I like Gurudan's team
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| 6 | KnicksFan
ID: 36824238
Fri, Oct 24, 2014, 15:10
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
My only thought was to avoid tanking FT%, which is historically a category that I stink in. This led to me avoiding the tantalizing pick of Dwight Howard even though he fell really far in our draft.
2) What surprised you?
About halfway through I couldn't believe how bad Guru's point guards looked! Then he wrote that he was tanking assists on purpose and it made sense.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
I still feel good about my squad, so no major regrets just yet.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best pick was Harden, but it's easy to say that about a first rounder. Beyond that, I like Derrick Favors and Parsons in rounds 4 and 5. Worst pick was probably Brook Lopez in round 7. I thought I could get a better point guard later, and Brook's potential is so high. In retrospect, there were more quality big men around in the later rounds and fewer point guards left, so I had to settle for Beverley at round 9. I think he's a decent value in round 9, but I would've rather had one of the round 7 point guards who went right after my Lopez pick.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Rose and Bosh by Tosh. Dwight Howard by MagicAirBirds. Also stramonio's pick of Tim Hardaway Jr in round 14 will be a steal.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Chalmers at pick 109.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Tosh or Dave R.
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| 7 | Addicted
ID: 159551315
Fri, Oct 24, 2014, 17:23
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in?
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
2) What surprised you?
Durant falling to Guru. Wade to RJ.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
I keep thinking players would've fell to me.
Playing the corners, I should've reached more.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Should've gone PF, when I picked Matthews.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Haywood, Stoudemire.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Durant, Wade
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Rondo, Burke
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
DaveR
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| 8 | gurudan
ID: 206112913
Wed, Oct 29, 2014, 19:12
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#1 my strategy is usually top PG and center 1st two picks,then look for guards that shoot 3's and good assists and power forwards that can rebound and block shots.down the line pick by pick find my weaknesses and fill the gaps.
#2 surprises are in the eye of the beholder. I wouldn't take batum over dragic, horford over vucevic or Durant in rd #2.but what do I know?
# 3 I stuck to the plan throughout
#4 you hope the answer nothing.
#5 i'd say tim Duncan in rd 4 was my worst and omer asik in rd 10 my best
#6 Noel #4, b lopez #7,vucevic #4,and #sullinger rd8
#7 marc gasol, batum, bosh and Durant
#8 SANDFORDORS
#5
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