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Subject: Price impact of ASB Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Thu, Feb 03, 11:51 According to SW sources at the SW forum, price changes will continue as usual over the ASB. That means that there will be price changes on Friday (2/11) and Monday (2/14) when there are no games. The previous day (Thursday) is also a day to be wary of, as there are only 3 games scheduled, and it is a light trading day. So what are the implications? I'd expect that:
There are undoubtedly other situations to look for, but I'll let others chime in. | ||||||
| 1 | Punishark ID: 470532912 Thu, Feb 03, 12:01 | Dave, what does your gut tell you about how AS game performance will impact prices? I believe that the masses will be drawn to those who do well in both the regular and Rookie Challenge games. Watch out for a Dale Davis price explosion! | |||||
| 2 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Feb 03, 12:19 | I don't expect a big impact related to the actual All-Star game itself. (This assumes that managers realize that the stats from the AS Game don't count!) There is a tendency to assume that many managers are pretty clueless, but I think that by this point of the season, most managers that are still active have some basic understanding of the game. I've seen a number of recent price changes attributed to "stupid lemming trades", but I often can see a legitimate (i.e., non-stupid) rationale for them. They may not satisfy my standards, but they aren't as totally ridiculous as some would lead you to believe. If Davis performs well, it might have a slight impact, but I'd be surprised if it's significant. | |||||
| 3 | dgreds ID: 32117311 Thu, Feb 03, 12:28 | Guru, do you ever check out the forums on Sw? I had thought like you that the "lemmings" aren't so stupid but then I started reading some of the posts over there. Some of the people are very stupid and they make some really bad moves. I think that you may be right that they're not that stupid to think that All Star Game stats count or that a player's performance in the game will impact how they play the rest of the season. | |||||
| 4 | Punishark ID: 470532912 Thu, Feb 03, 12:33 | I wasn't thinking about the masses thinking the AS game stats counted, but I was thinking that many teams have never even seen some of these guys play. Exposure. We have all seen its effect throughout the regular season so far. | |||||
| 5 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Feb 03, 12:42 | The smarter ones aren't very likely to be posting at THAT forum, are they? I didn't say they're ALL aware. There will always be some teams picking up Rodman. But when there is a big price change, it means that a lot of teams made that move. And before attributing it to idiocy, it's sometimes illuminating to stop and think about whether there really might be a non-loony rationale. For example, some Gurupies are angry at the "stupid lemmings" for dumping Odom just because he had the flu. Well, if you are aware, and you had a trade available, and you want to protect your roster value, then it wasn't such a stupid move to make. In fact, I'd say it looks pretty smart at this juncture. Odom will probably take another price hit tomorrow. They can then buy him back Saturday for a price that may be $1m cheaper. Or they may wait until next Wednesday to buy him back. With off days on Mon and Tues, I don't think his price prognosis looks wholly favorable until Wednesday. | |||||
| 6 | Baldwin ID: 54049316 Thu, Feb 03, 12:49 | Artest scores 49 SWP, only one day till his next game, a brilliant producer and great value held by most good teams. Splain to me if you will the legitimate rationale for him dropping 149k today. | |||||
| 7 | Mike ID: 45035294 Thu, Feb 03, 12:50 | Yay Guru!
My point exactly, made in the Odom thread on the fact that price moves are starting to look like "speculative bubbles"! | |||||
| 8 | James K Polk ID: 60222912 Thu, Feb 03, 12:53 | Baldwin -- I'm betting Artest's drop was the result of residual sells that didn't quite beat the SW "real freeze" two repricings ago. | |||||
| 9 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Feb 03, 13:05 | Baldwin - First of all, a $130 or $140 decline on a Thursday probably doesn't reflect many trades. Most owners of Artest are no doubt holding him. Some may have bailed late Wednesday morning after his bad game, if there is a lag between the trade cutoff and the price change, perhaps going to Donyell or Raef. Some may have decided to move into Raef, or Jamison, or Uncle CLiffy, or next week's forward flavor-of-the-week, and done it a day early to catch any early price moves. Maybe they're after the Ceballos game tonight. Probably some of each. Again, it doesn't take many Thurday trades to produce a $140K drop. And that's particularly true for someone like Artest, who is highly owned. (Even more true for Odom.) | |||||
| 10 | D.Dawkins ID: 16111110 Thu, Feb 03, 13:10 | Guru- it is true that trades made toward the end of the swh week (wed, thurs) have more weight than a trade made on friday through the weekend? This would prove the value of spreading your trades out even more. | |||||
| 11 | dgreds ID: 32117311 Thu, Feb 03, 13:10 | Guru, I agree with everything you said. My only point was that there are some very stupid active owners. You're right that any smart owner wouldn't be posting over there (unless it's to get some info from the moderators). | |||||
| 12 | Baldwin ID: 54049316 Thu, Feb 03, 13:31 | I'll tell'ya one new Lemming fact-O-life. Whoever gets a positive write-up on the front page over at SW is going to be a big gainer for sure. I have been pulling out my hair trying to figure out which Washington player was going to benefit most from MJ's tutelage. The SW front page today forced my hand. | |||||
| 13 | The Judge ID: 330332820 Thu, Feb 03, 14:39 | What do you all think of these recommendations from SmallWorld? Think people will flock to them?
Center: Hakeem: a good pickup if you have $$$$. Forward: Donyell Marshall: an excellent pick up. Guard: Nick Van Exel: if you have $$$$, get him. Sleeper: Greg Anthony: a nice find. I would not think so about Hakeem due to him being a bench player, but who knows; Marshall and Van Excel and my sleeper Derrick Coleman have been getting looks from me -- Coleman after the ASG. | |||||
| 14 | allstar ID: 60492913 Thu, Feb 03, 15:15 | Guru, what do you think about the odom thing? do you think he will be out for any other games or will drop tomorrow? because he does have a great schedule,i just hope he is healthy and regains his money.. | |||||
| 15 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Feb 03, 15:21 | I have no idea if he'll play Saturday. All I heard is "flu-like symptoms". And I think his price will drop on Friday. And Tuesday. Monday depends on how his weekend went. The risk with a heavily owned player - and Odom is one of the heaviest - is that they have exaggerated downside risk vs. other players. I own him on one of my two teams. I'm selling him on Friday. (Would've sold today if I had the trade available. Stupid Brandon!) If he recovers quickly, I may pick him back up on Wednesday morning. | |||||
| 16 | The Judge ID: 330332820 Thu, Feb 03, 18:57 | BUTT | |||||
| 17 | Pond Scum ID: 4601296 Thu, Feb 03, 19:24 | BUTT back atcha
Also to Guru, can you bring back the "rules of the road" thread? We seem to have a lot of newcomers who don't quite get how to make the most out of this site. Also, bravo on respecting the voice of the market (others call lemmings). If a large group of players at this stage think something is the right thing to do, there is probably a reason worth digging for. | |||||
| 18 | KB8ers GM ID: 0616111 Mon, Jan 22, 18:23 | butt | |||||
| 19 | DR Stars ID: 4211161321 Mon, Jan 22, 18:32 |
Thanks this helps a lot, let's see if we can strt puting some names in for this year. Teams coming out of the ASB: LAC 4-5 (Odom, MCI) GS 4-4-4 (Jackson, Jamison) SA 3(ASB)-4-4-4 (Tiem to get TD?) NY 4-4-4-4 When is Camby due back? Van 4-4-4 Bibby (don't you have him already?) Sac 4-4 (CWeb) Was 4-4 (Why bother?) LAL 4-3-4-4-4-4-4-4 (Wow, Get Shaq and Kobe or die?) | |||||
| 20 | VIDevilRays ID: 508151619 Mon, Jan 22, 18:37 | Guru's post #5 should be required reading for anyone who questions trading patterns. | |||||
| 21 | Klaus E ID: 4310141417 Mon, Jan 22, 19:33 |
I guess the longterm thinkers (and traders) need a little perspective that starts off the week before ASB in order to make the proper moves. At least NY stand out in that category - and Camby will return 2/1. Good Scheds starting trading week of 1/31 (courtesy of allhair allstars' excellent spreadsheet) Atl 5-2-4-3-4-4 (Terry, Mt. Tumbo) Bos 4-2-4 (Walker) GSW 2-2-4-4-4 (Antawn, MJ) LAC 4-2-4-5 (Odom) LAL 3-2-4-3-4-4-4-4-4-4 (Wow) Mil 3-2-4-3-4-4 (Cassell, Big Dog) NYK 4-2-4-4-4-4 (Camby) Orl 4-1-4-3-4-4-4-3-4 (TMac) Sac 3-2-4-4-3-4-4 (CWeb, Peja) SAS 3-3-4-4-4-3-4-4 (Tdunc, 8RL) Sea 3-1-2-4-4-4-4 (Payton) Van 4-2-4-4-4-3-4 (Rahim, Bibby) Looks like Atl, Bos, NY, Van and LAC are good picks to enter February with. Looks inevitable to pick up LAL early to get most of their gains. Kobe have already started to pick up SWD-wise. | |||||
| 22 | rage_22@work ID: 280203017 Wed, Jan 30, 2002, 17:39 | BUTT, I know this is old, but if you remove the team names and just refer to the day of the week scenarios, it might be helpful. | |||||
| 23 | rage_22@work ID: 280203017 Tue, Feb 05, 2002, 17:58 | BUTT | |||||
| 24 | rage_22@work ID: 280203017 Tue, Feb 05, 2002, 18:14 |
Good CHI 1-4-4-4 CHA 0-4-4-3 DEN 1-4-3-4 LAL 1-4-4-4 MIL 1-4-4-4 PHO 1-4-4-3 SEA 1-4-4-4 TOR 1-4-3-4 POR 0-4-4-4 GSW 0-4-4-4 NJN 1-4-3-4 Not So Good ATL 1-3-3-4 BOS 1-4-2-3 CLE 1-3-4-4 DAL 1-4-3-3 DET 1-3-3-4 MEM 1-3-3-4 MIA 0-4-3-4 MIN 0-4-3-4 NYN 1-3-3-4 PHI 0-3-3-4 SAC 1-3-3-3 SAS 1-3-4-4 UTA 1-4-2-3 WAS 1-3-4-4 Straight Up Bad HOU 1-2-4-3 IND 1-2-3-4 LAC 0-3-5-1 ORL 1-2-4-4 IMHO | |||||
| 25 | rage_22@work ID: 280203017 Tue, Feb 05, 2002, 18:15 | That is, starting post ASB (2/12). | |||||
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