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Subject: Invalid Roster Trading Strategy Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Sat, Feb 05, 10:06 The All Star break offers an opportunity to trade a bit differently than usual. Normally, you buy and sell at the same time, because you can't afford to go for a day without an invalid roster. But when your team has no players playing, there is no penalty for an invalid roster. Zero points is zero points, regardless of the reason. Clearly, for the 4 days during the All Star break, there are no games. So, there is no penalty for having an invalid roster during that period. The reason for using this tactic is to try to save a few bucks. If the player you plan to sell is likely to immediately drop in price, but so is the one you want to buy, then it may make sense to let that trade span a few repricings, selling one player immediately, and buying the other after a few days. Let's consider an example to illustrate. Let's assume that after this Thrusday, you want to sell Darrell Armsrong and buy Mike Bibby. You figure that Armstrong will start dropping immediately, because of his light schedule following the ASB. But you are also worried that Bibby will lose a few dollars over the break because he doesn't play until the following Wednesday. You sell Armstrong on Thursday afternoon, and avoid his losses on Friday and Monday. But you wait until Monday afternoon to buy Bibby, after his expected drops on Friday and Monday. This leaves you invalid during the weekend, but so what? Your roster becomes valid again in time for the Tuesday games. And if you are right about the price changes, you save a few bucks buy avoiding the Friday & Monday losses for both players. You could even sell and buy the same player. If you already own Bibby and want to keep him, but fear the price drop, you can drop him before the weekend, and then buy him back after the Monday repricing. You pocket cash equal to the amount of his price drop during the invalid period. (I'm not suggesting that Bibby will drop enough during the break to make this strategy worth using a trade for. That's for you to decide. I just use it as an example.) There is a reasonable probability that players with no games on the Tuesday after the ASB will decline over the break. There is also a reasonable probability that players who are coming off of heavy schedules (like Denver) will have net sells over the break. If trading is light, this could result in larger than normal price declines. This tactic can help mitigate the damage. | ||||||
| 1 | Pistol Pete ID: 360392819 Sat, Feb 05, 10:09 | Excellent take, Guru. The wheels in my head are spinning already. | |||||
| 2 | D.Dawkins ID: 16111110 Sat, Feb 05, 10:11 | Guru- thanks again for bringing the obvious to light! Money to be gained! | |||||
| 3 | Qman ID: 16038299 Sat, Feb 05, 10:14 | Yes thank you Guru, Now to figure out who to sell and buy. | |||||
| 4 | Dre ID: 110492916 Sat, Feb 05, 10:14 | I'm sure this tactic will be employed by many! | |||||
| 5 | D.Dawkins ID: 16111110 Sat, Feb 05, 10:15 | Guru- in looking at the upcoming schedule right after all-star break, notice every team with the exception of van, orlando, and sixers play on 2/15. you think teams will be making trades even though pretty much everyone's whole roster will be playing on 2/15? | |||||
| 6 | Pistol Pete ID: 360392819 Sat, Feb 05, 10:17 | Try getting this kind of excellent advice on the SW message boards. Guru, you are way to cool! I'm thinking maybe GP for a sell...and wait to by him back....just my initial thoughts. | |||||
| 7 | Dre ID: 110492916 Sat, Feb 05, 10:20 | D.Dawkins - Good point, the only one that I see being widely held at that time may be bibby out of those teams you mentioned. Other than that, its possible that teams may have 9 instead of 10 playin that night.
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| 8 | Ref ID: 10019299 Sat, Feb 05, 10:23 | Although great advice. I'm choosing not to do it. Knowing my luck I would have power failure like a fellow gurupie only to have my roster invalid. Also, I think in my situation, trades are so valued that I would def. not sell the same player just to buy him back for a few bucks. It will be interesting to see who all does this and what the net gains are. | |||||
| 9 | yo ID: 5313446 Sat, Feb 05, 10:23 | Great stategy tips as always Guru. Was I seeing things earlier this morning, or does letter j deserve some credit for this thread? | |||||
| 10 | D.Dawkins ID: 16111110 Sat, Feb 05, 10:24 | Dre- My point exactly. Bibby is the most widely owned out of the tree teams that don't play, but he also has 5 games the following week, so I don't think many people will be dumping him. Those who have Bibby, have him long term. what do you think? | |||||
| 11 | Pistol Pete ID: 360392819 Sat, Feb 05, 10:31 | Ref- Lucky me! I own my own welding shop. I have 3 welding machines that can provide power for me in the event of an power outage... only the phone line can stop me! (I have two pc's as well- call me Mr. Backup plan!) : ) | |||||
| 12 | hoops boy ID: 32046309 Sat, Feb 05, 10:39 | went to bibby early this week for francis, and dont plan on useing any more trades on him till Im ready to get rid off him. Trades are too precious. | |||||
| 13 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sat, Feb 05, 11:08 | Yo - yes, I think it was letter J that suggested I dust off this idea. I posted something similar prior to the off-days during the Christmas period. I also have Bibby, and I'm just going to hold throughout. I think it's very difficult to anticipate how trading will occur during the break. The biggest risk factor is that if trading is very light, then price impacts will be exaggerated. And since there seems to be some day-to-day trading for games, Bibby may attract some buys on Thursday (when few teams play) and then sells prior to Tuesday (when most teams play. I'm not at all confident that this will be significant, and I'm not going to use a trade. But others should make their own judgments. Possible applications may be more obvious on Friday, when we see what Thursday's trading themes were, and when we also know the current injury situation. | |||||
| 14 | Dre ID: 110492916 Sat, Feb 05, 11:13 | D.Dawkins - When I picked him up thursday, I knew it was long term. I think it was the most efficient way for me to go. I will have enough guys going when he is off without too much impact in points, the money is coming. | |||||
| 15 | philflyboy ID: 41012822 Sat, Feb 05, 12:33 | just a thought, will the lemmings be doing a lot of trading over the all star break? I would think that they would show more interest in SW hoops while they are anticipating the all star game and take the time to make whole sale changes to their teams. Therefore IMHO I think trading could be very heavy during that time. | |||||
| 16 | Shooter ID: 360542911 Sat, Feb 05, 22:03 | will you still reap the gains of the players you keep if your roster is invalid? | |||||
| 17 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sat, Feb 05, 22:08 | Of course. | |||||
| 18 | JW ID: 22026299 Mon, Feb 07, 17:22 | Guru -
I've been mulling this one over since Sat. My instant reaction was "Brilliant, money for jam; dump 3/4 guys Thu. p.m.; sit back and then pick their replacements on Mon. at knock-down prices; what could be simpler" Answer - anything. I know this is the bleeding obvious but for it to work, one has to be certain that next week's desirable picks are first going to drop in price. Surely this only applies to a tiny number of players (i.e.: those with no Tue. start) and if so, who do you pick for Tue.? I know I'm missing something obvious here, so please, please someone explain it to me in words of one syllable. | |||||
| 19 | allhair allstars ID: 53113715 Mon, Feb 07, 22:26 | It is not as quick and clean as it looks, seems to me. I thought I'd try it the last time Dave tossed it out but changed my mind. I think you have the right thoughts. You could sell and buy the same guy..., and so on. Read Dave's post twice and you might get the gist.
I'm no help, I think, but at least I kept it to one beat words, eh? | |||||
| 20 | ebomb7 ID: 4611346 Mon, Feb 07, 22:47 | this strategy is only useful if u have a definate money loser and want to escape their loses. | |||||
| 21 | Penult ID: 80282822 Tue, Feb 08, 05:06 | ebomb7 speaks the truth. If I was 40 or 50 K short of making a deal for two players I might try it. Maybe somebody can cite a case where a player dropped 400 or 500 K the day before his schedule turned great and I would then change my mind. The way the day traders are now Shaq goes up and down 130K almost everyday between games he plays. | |||||
| 22 | letter j ID: 58158712 Thu, Feb 10, 09:00 | it's the threads like this that endear me to this site; just too good to get buried on the third page. hopefully others appreciate it as much as i do. thank you, guru.
BUTT. letter j | |||||
| 23 | yo ID: 450133110 Thu, Feb 10, 09:20 | I wonder if LaFrentz is a candidate for a sell and buy back. Bad game against Shaq, early foul trouble in the next, and now it sounds like managers are willing to trade away his game today for players like Coleman. Of course if he stinks again tonight, might just sell and stay invalid for a few days. | |||||
| 24 | Willix ID: 20010319 Thu, Feb 10, 10:20 | I have thought about my trading strategy for this week a lot, and I don't have a definitive answer yet. I do know that if you plan to go the invalid roster plan, you better have a back up choice if your player didn't go down as much as expected and you are cutting it close on dollars. If you realize you can't afford the player you want, you might grab someone you didn't really want just to validate your roster.
Just have a backup plan ready. | |||||
| 25 | DickSlapper ID: 141025100 Fri, Nov 10, 00:35 | (_|_) | |||||
| 26 | BlackMagicBaller ID: 4811122312 Mon, Jan 22, 16:59 |
BUTT. I can't seem to remember what happened last year. Can someone post a recap of price changes during the ASB or even their own experience with this strategy. Are there new rules in SW that would affect this strategy? Anyone taking this approach this year? Thanks. | |||||
| 27 | jumpball ID: 4644339 Mon, Jan 22, 17:07 |
From what I remember, the price changes were about the same each day during the break. And the players that rose in value were the ones with the great schedules after the ASB. I'll check out the data later tonight. | |||||
| 28 | prefek ID: 4058203 Mon, Jan 22, 18:02 | Excellent strategy, Guru. However my typical strategy is the opposite. I stack my team with people I know will be the biggest gainers over the all-star break (whoever they may be). This way I can even profit from the masses who buy without schedule in mind because everyone has the same schedule. Without any bad performances or injuries to ruin solid gains, I can enjoy a 4-5 day stretch of consistent and solid money with minimal risk. Hence I'm trying to save trades after this past hectic week. | |||||
| 29 | Klaus E ID: 4310141417 Mon, Jan 22, 19:08 | BMB... the primary new feature in SW this year compared to last is that repricings also take place during weekends now. But how this will affect things differently I really don't know. I don't think it changes a whole lot. | |||||
| 30 | AirCanada15 ID: 180101119 Mon, Jan 22, 19:18 |
Nicely thought out Guru, The only thing is that I doubt too many prices will change during the break, as there is not much reason to buy or sell at any time during the break. If anything prices might go up early for some people who want to get the jump on others for getting money. And if everyone thinks like that, the ASB could be a great time to rack in some cash | |||||
| 31 | ClevelandRocks ID: 200302217 Mon, Jan 22, 19:24 |
didnt the same thing happen for baseball? i rememebr going tradeless in baseball and it was worth it. 4 days of losses is still significant. why lose the money when you dont have to? | |||||
| 32 | KTxGOD ID: 53045117 Tue, Jan 23, 00:08 |
Oh the HORROR! Dont bring up "tradeless" and "baseball ASB"~!!! u can guess the rest :P | |||||
| 33 | ClevelandRocks ID: 350212315 Tue, Jan 23, 15:45 |
lol ktx.. actually that was a slip of the keyboard or tongue or whatever.. i meant going invalid. sorry i invoked such horrific experiences back to ya. | |||||
| 34 | Klaus E ID: 4310141417 Fri, Feb 02, 17:38 |
BUTT No need to start new threads all the time when subjects have been discussed extensively before - I guess :-) | |||||
| 35 | Eville ID: 29017810 Fri, Feb 02, 17:53 |
I tend to agree with Prefek on this one. The only guys going down are probably bad post ASB sched so why buy them back. Make your picks before the break and ride the wave. One upside. Minimal chance for major injuries over the ASB and surely a bad AS game wouldn't cause a lemming to trade?????????????? I mean Nash isn't even playing. | |||||
| 36 | chuckball ID: 46554110 Sat, Feb 03, 03:31 | BUTT...sorry for the new post...I'll let it die now. | |||||
| 37 | Pond Scum ID: 54420321 Sat, Feb 03, 08:12 |
I'm curious as to whether there are other ASB factors to consider. Experience from last year would be useful (sorry I don't have the data). An easy example is that the Game itself (and other special events) are opportunies for a freak injury, so don't buy until after. Another would be the MVP and other standouts in the game get great exposure and perhaps more post-game buys? Perhaps more subtle are the players who perhaps should have been selected and weren't. My strong guess is that 'Toine will have a massive next several weeks to prove he belongs in the Club. Don't know about Brand, others. Other considerations? | |||||
| 38 | Caleb ID: 430381819 Sat, Feb 03, 09:41 |
Remember that to go invalid you still must have trades in the bank to do a sell! Caleb | |||||
| 39 | CanEHdian Pride ID: 426351415 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 15:35 |
BUTT MORE INTERESTING IDEAS. | |||||
| 40 | beebop ID: 2011501015 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 15:50 | Ummm, just from memory....i didnt think the prices moved during the all star break..... | |||||
| 41 | Blooki ID: 449253119 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 15:51 | They do. | |||||
| 42 | Tomcraw ID: 2211411016 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 16:41 |
I'M SO EXCITED ABOUT THIS I'M NOT EVEN WAITING UNTIL THE ALL STAR BREAK! I'M GOING TO SELL BRENT BARRY AND WAIT 3 DAYS TO BUY TINSELY BACK, THEREBY AVOIDING BOTH THEIR LOSSES AND ONLY GAINING! WOO-HOO! | |||||
| 43 | KnicksFan ID: 3910422919 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 16:53 | tomcraw, i hope you are only kidding. | |||||
| 44 | Mark Felton, Art Jr. Leader ID: 4444938 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 16:55 |
That ain't the real Tomcraw. (Or, the real one is posting from another machine, but with his brain turned off.) | |||||
| 45 | CanEHdian Pride ID: 426351415 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 16:58 | Maybe we should specify that an invalid roster DOESN'T GET ANY POINTS. Just in case the above post is an actual strategy for someone. | |||||
| 46 | Tomcraw ID: 2211411016 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 17:02 |
It was just a joke. I post both from home and at work, so that is the discrepancy in ID number. I just saw some of the posts and guys were getting all worked up about the strategy and we can't use it for 2 months. But it was an excellent post Guru, something I hadn't thought of doing before. I actually did think it was a possiblity right around Christmas, only a few teams play for 3 days (25th-28th), and if you weren't planning on having any of them on your team it would work. | |||||
| 47 | CanEHdian Pride ID: 426351415 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 17:05 | this was a thread from last year Tomcraw....that is why everyone was worked up about it. I brought it to the top as an example of the threads people are capable of making. If people tried to roll out more threads like this instead of only complaining about all of the useless threads then our problems would be solved. | |||||
| 48 | Tomcraw ID: 2211411016 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 17:08 |
CP- I wasn't saying it was a useless thread. I saw some others that you brought back and I think that was a good idea. | |||||
| 49 | Tomcraw ID: 2211411016 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 17:11 | Maybe the quality of threads has declined because many of the strategies are now widely known. The game is several years old now, and many that are new to the board might already have a good grasp on how to play. Hence, everyone just asks for help on their roster decisions. | |||||
| 50 | C-Dawg ID: 481131018 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 18:03 | is evryone so sure that TSN will have price changes during the break?? It might be possible that they won't do changes for those few days.. | |||||
| 51 | rage_22 Donor ID: 01011300 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 21:04 | Ummmmm, I'm about 103.7% sure that they will do price changes over the break there C-Dawg. | |||||
| 52 | rage_22@work ID: 280203017 Wed, Jan 30, 2002, 17:20 | BUTT | |||||
| 53 | KrazyKoalaBears Donor ID: 2795160 Wed, Jan 30, 2002, 17:35 |
They're not doing price changes for Hockey during the ASB this year, so I wouldn't be 103.7% sure they will for Basketball. Actually, I'm not even sure I would be 50% sure. ;) From the Hockey Announcements: | |||||
| 54 | rage_22@work ID: 280203017 Wed, Jan 30, 2002, 17:40 | Yeah, I would self-edit that, but I think I've cleared my cookies since then. I guess I was just being pretty caustic that day. :) | |||||
| 55 | VIDevilRays Leader ID: 22947267 Tue, Feb 05, 2002, 14:26 | Another BUTT for those unfamiliar. | |||||
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