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Subject: $$$ vs Points Posted by: Ender - [13443221] Sun, Jan 14, 10:32 I am curious to hear what people feel the exchange rate is at various points in the season. For example, would you sacrifice 20 or 30 SWP for $500K? I'll develop my thoughts some more today, but thought I'd get this up here for when people check the price changes :) | ||||||
| 1 | C.C. SOLDIERS ID: 27451209 Sun, Jan 14, 10:57 | I would not make that sacrifice for 500,000. 20-30 points can make a slight difference, but not enough for me to pass on 500,000. Now if you raise the points more, then i would consider. | |||||
| 2 | Ender ID: 13443221 Sun, Jan 14, 11:07 |
I don't follow that one CC. COuld you clarify? Perhaps I was unclear. WOuld you for example sacrifice a 30 SWP game from a player to pick up a player you "knew" would gain 500K? For example Odom > Marion this morning was a similar case. | |||||
| 3 | Scarecrow ID: 59454517 Sun, Jan 14, 11:09 |
Throw into the mix 500,000 and one trade used versus 20-30 points and saving a trade? Scarecrow | |||||
| 4 | steve houpt ID: 5811592615 Sun, Jan 14, 11:13 |
FOR ME: have $78M. Marion as an example. Today, I only get to use the $500k (assuming he gains that the next 3 days) for a max of 6 more weeks if all the top scorers had a 4-5 game weeks and you wanted them (they cost about $88-93M). All you need is one or two to have a three game week and $82-88M is all you need with Marion's and Nash's available to fill in one of the top spots and the $500k is worth even less. @ 2-4 swp/g/$M times 12-24 games time $0.5M = 12-48 SWP's (for me). And there are so many intangibles, that is not worth losing 20-30 (maybe more) SWP's to me. And I'm using a trade early. Need 'some' value on the 'early' trade. That gets you in trouble sometimes. Burned me a few times (the old I'm going to trade him anyway). | |||||
| 5 | C.C. SOLDIERS ID: 27451209 Sun, Jan 14, 11:13 | Yep, I would Ender. Especially in this case of Odom to Marion. Losing Odom's points for one game will not hurt your ranking that bad. That's the way I see it, although I am sure others see it differently. | |||||
| 6 | Dre' ID: 1111201122 Sun, Jan 14, 11:14 |
Ok, I'll bite. It would depend on a couple of factors for me. First, if I were chasing someone or in a very tight race with someone and was on the verge of overtaking them then I would probably go for the points. Secondly, it would depend on others around me and where we are in points vs. how much money we have. If I'm short and money was a factor and not points, then I'd probably go for the dough! | |||||
| 7 | Ender ID: 13443221 Sun, Jan 14, 11:16 |
Sure, why not. Or in the case of Marion > Odom, it may have been a trade you would have made Tuesday night anyway. I am just really interested in the rationale we all use to make a given move. The trades at the end of a week schedule into a striong schedule that vegins at the same time are easy. How do people decide that Iverson must go, if only to a person who has an equivalent schedule? WHen is it time to dump a player losing $$$, but has a decent schedule? When do you eat losses through a 3 game week, vs trading out and back in (perhaps in another slot)? These are the questions that separate us in the rankings (for better or worse) IMO. I am just curious at other owners' rationale. Like I said, I will try and make my thoughts more concrete as I contemplate it during the football games. | |||||
| 8 | VIDevilRays ID: 11713189 Sun, Jan 14, 11:30 |
Excellent analysis Steve, as usual. And you are right-there are so many intangibles that factor into an individual team's trading. I would only add that I think the 20-30 swps is a minimum. An Odom/Marion trade today could have a variation as high as 50-60 swps. Is that potential variation worth it? I'm sure it is for some teams when those intangibles kick into play. I could not rationalize making that trade for my team, however. | |||||
| 9 | David ID: 5061220 Sun, Jan 14, 11:56 |
VIDevilRays, I fail to see how moving to Marion will cost you 50-60 SWP. Marion has scored upper forties the last week and Odom is clearly hurt and not scoring. Not to mention there is a good chance Odom will DNP one of these games. The news stated on other threads states Odom is clearly hurt and it is affecting his play. Realisticly the delta would be 60 SWP for odom and 45 for Marion. For that delta the cash is clearly worth it. As a side note, we are approaching the point where Shaq will become a clear option at the center slot and many will not have the money to move to him. This will become a caste society of those that can afford shaq (without gutting their team) and those that cant. I am not at the point where I can afford shaq and the other midpriced players at other positions, and time is running out. | |||||
| 10 | The Bandwagon ID: 54081216 Sun, Jan 14, 12:56 |
I do not think trading a stud/semi-stud player for money and losing a game is worth it. If it was cheap players you were swapping, one being a money train, and the other being a negative money train, then I would probably do it. I can understand to some degree why people would trade Odom to someone else and lose a game (Webber,Carter, McDyess), but to Marion? I know Marion is a money train right now, but he isn't 100% either, and his chances of sitting are just as great as Odom's are IMO. Plus Marion is streaky and he can put you up a 20 just as easy as a 50. I do beleive that making a lateral trade for $$ is exceptable in some cases. For example, yesterday I went Iverson to Kidd. Both have the same # of games until the break, Iverson was losing $$ and not playing consistent, and I expected Kidd to be more consistent, and to be a gainer starting Wednesday. I also beleived Kidd could out point Iverson by over 100 from yesterday until the break. Moving Iverson was extremely unpopular with most veteran gurupies, and it is my opinion that alot of veteran gurupies over value a trade this hoops season. The way I see the 2nd half of the season, Shaq, J. O'neal, Kobe, T-Mac, C-Webb, and Karl Malone are locks for 90% of the 2nd half barring injury. This means most of us will be rotating 4 players for the 2nd half with 4 trades a week, so at some point, those banking all of these trades will have to use them inefficiently sooner or later. Why not use the trades now to make the $$ to afford the best team possible for the 2nd half? This was the rationale for my Iverson to Kidd lateral move. I'm sure I won't be a popular person after this post, but hopefully I have added a new twist to the debate. | |||||
| 11 | mets ID: 74452111 Sun, Jan 14, 13:05 | Bandwagon,also Duncan he has like a 4-4-3-4-4-4-3 or something 2nd half. I am with you Bandwagon,but Marion is more healthy than Odom right now,making 660K in 2 days..and plays 4-4-4 next 3 weeks while I was going to sell Odom after his back-to-back games..so I get Marion's game today which cancels out Odom's tomorrow and I lose one Odom game,but Odom is not 100% healthy and Marion plays more games over the long run in that one slot. | |||||
| 12 | Texas Flood ID: 12458220 Sun, Jan 14, 13:22 |
I had a log jam at forward. i passed on marion (for now) and kept wallace, webber, mcdyess and carter. i could not see a clear advantage to moving any of these guys except for an immediate cash gain. I think marion will be a viable option when wallace's dries up about next thrus. i may move him for marion post freeze next tue? my roster vaule is about 76,500 and has dropped about 500k (thanks to nash) over the last 3 days. plenty of money to be made in the future but i just thought the extra trade might be improtant down the line. at this point of the season i think it's important to only make trades that result in points and cash. I wish i would have had a forward to trade but i did have my own cross to bear with Nash. this was not a story with a happy ending but i did move Nash for Mckie, lost 10k but hopefully the points will be there? | |||||
| 13 | Ender ID: 13443221 Sun, Jan 14, 13:25 |
"I do beleive that making a lateral trade for $$ is exceptable in some cases. For example, yesterday I went Iverson to Kidd. Both have the same # of games until the break, Iverson was losing $$ and not playing consistent, and I expected Kidd to be more consistent, and to be a gainer starting Wednesday. I also beleived Kidd could out point Iverson by over 100 from yesterday until the break." Bandwagon, your rationale for Iverson > Kidd is o different than the rationale for Odom > Marion. The ONLY difference is the game you lose, but one could argue that is offset by the fact Marion is gaining NOW, not Wednesday AND the fact that Odom is clearly injured and underperforming. That's basically what prompted me to ask the original question. When do you make the "lateral" trade or give up a game (if ever). FWIW my opinion is that Odom may cough up a DNP or even 2 because of his wrist. At the very least he is grossly negatively affected by it. I honestly don't see any possibility of Odom posting a 50 or 60 in the extra game. We'll see what happens over the next week. | |||||
| 14 | VIDevilRays ID: 11713189 Sun, Jan 14, 13:58 |
David-I said "could" be; I did not say it was a probability. However, the possibility of it happening is enough reason for me not to pull the trigger on that trade for "my" team. I was not criticizing anyone for the move and, as I said, many intangibles factor into a team's trades. We do not know what Odom is going to do in his two games or what Marion will do in his one game. But the possibility exists that Marion could get 30-40 swps in his one game and Odom could get 80 swps in his two. That possibility is enough for "me" not to make the trade on "my" team. If you think otherwise more power to you and make the trade. But sitting here arguing about what each will do is besides the point since we do not know. Btw-I don't see 45 from Marion as realistic. I see that as a good game. I see 30-40 as realistic. | |||||
| 15 | allhair allstars ID: 5398182 Sun, Jan 14, 14:16 |
Hmm… A quick glimpse into my twisted, rapidly deteriorating, and currently poorly performing thought processes… “How do people decide that Iverson must go, if only to a person who has an equivalent schedule?” I trade if the player (A) in question is performing poorly and losing money, and if there is another player (B) doing the opposite in the same price range. It’s not a simple as that, of course. How does Player A’s future schedule look? Is there a specific reason why that person performed poorly? And is it reasonable to expect that his performance will pick up again? Is Player B just a flash in the pan, or is that person a legitimate replacement for a reasonable amount of time? Do I have enough trades to pull this off? Will I feel suicidal if Player A busts out the next game? I kept Iverson in general because I liked his schedule and figured he’s break out soon. Conversely, I traded Payton because his performances were weak and his ailments (and attitude about his slump) were well documented. Despite his nice schedule, I did not want to risk holding him through a prolonged suck period. Also, his price certainly played a factor. “When is it time to dump a player losing $$$, but has decent schedule?” Depends on the # of trades I have and if there is a more attractive alternative. If the player is performing as I expected and it’s early in the trade week (or if I’m low on trades), I’m not going to blow my entire trading plan (and possibly risk a DNP if I’m really short on trades) just so I could make a few bucks. If you have a plan, there’s no reason to vary too much from it just because of a little bleeding. Of course, if the money loss is severe there’s probably a reason for it, and that reason may be good enough to force a trade. It depends. All things being equal, if I have a ton of trades and the transition is relatively painless, I’ll look at it, but only if I’m fairly sure I’ll benefit from the move in SWD and SWP. “When do you eat losses through a 3 game week, vs trading out and back in (perhaps in another slot)?” Again, it depends. How many trades do I have? What is the player’s schedule like after the 3 game week? Is that person performing well enough for me to want him back after? There always seems to be some other slot that needs work, so if I’m positive I’m going to want that person back again anyway, I’ll use the trade elsewhere. On the other hand, if that is the only weak slot I have at that position, I’ll move that person to pick up an obvious buy, like Sheed’s current 5 game week, or if I can finagle some combination of moves to pick up 5 games in the week. These are just some of the basic thoughts I have. Of course, each situation is different. For me, the process of interpreting the various trade permutations with regards to points and money throughout the season is what makes this game enjoyable. Reading back I realize that most (if not all) of what I said above is standard fare for most managers. Just call me MOTO (master of the obvious). ps., I'm holding Odom, and hope to be smiling about it in three days. | |||||
| 16 | CincyReds ID: 15020146 Sun, Jan 14, 14:18 |
I traded Odom a week ago for Wallace because I knew he would start dropping before the week was out. I could've traded McDyess (and got 5 games from Odom instead of 3 Dice games), but would've just picked Dice back up this week and in the process use 2 trades instead of one. As far as sacrificing points for $$, I try to balance it out. I feel that trades are valuable and wouldn't pick up a player who's making a lot of $$ with a bad schedule (that's why I missed on the Marion train early on). Compare Iverson for Bibby for example. Iverson plays 1 more game the next 3 weeks, but the way Bibby has been playing (and the way Iverson has been inconsistant lately), you could easily sacrifice that "potential 30" swp's and get Bibby. Then again if you already own Iverson like me, it might not yet be worth using another trade right now (unless Iverson gets another 15 swp game.) | |||||
| 17 | The Bandwagon ID: 54081216 Sun, Jan 14, 14:19 |
Sorry Ender, it is different. I lose 0 games Iverson to Kidd, you lose 1 game going Odom to Marion, that is if Odom plays both games. If Odom sits out 1 or 2, then kudo's to you, but as of this morning you did not know for sure, so its a roll of the dice. Odom has had this injury for weeks now, and has still put up some upper 40 games, so I will hold him unless he sits Monday night. There was no way I trade a 75% Odom for Marion coming off a knee injury and 1 less game. I do not see how you would rationalize the Odom/Marion trade when you were so against the O'neal to Wright swap weeks ago. I'm not saying you are wrong, or that I am right, I'm just stating my opinion. Time will tell which way was right. If my way was wrong, than I'll be the first one to tip my hat to you. . | |||||
| 18 | Bethesda Panthers ID: 1816120 Sun, Jan 14, 15:43 |
HOW MANY SW POINTS IS $1 MILLION WORTH? I am returning to Ender’s original question about the SSS vs points tradeoff at various points in the season. I have not contributed too much to these boards but I have enjoyed some of the comments and I feel I owe some. Here are my thoughts. Pardon their length. Dollars are worth fewer and fewer points as the season progresses. There are two reasons - each with important and separate implications: 1) There are fewer games left in which to use the better players money buys. 2) The less money you have, the more good an extra $1 million will do. (By the time you have $100 million or so, more money has no value.) With this in mind, here is how to evaluate how many points $1 million is worth. First, figure out how many SWP/g you will get, on average, per extra $ 1 million. At the start of the season the correct value was 2.8 SWP/g/$1 million (somewhat higher than last year because of different initial pricing mechanisms). This falls off during the season due to reason 2 above. The values I have calculated based on this year's statistics are given in the table below. Second, figure what percent of games a roster position is in action. With no trades, this would be about 50%. Depending on how aggressively you use trades for extra games, you should be able to get this up close to 60%. Multiply this number by the number from the first step: SWP/g/$1 million x g/d = SWP/d/$1 million Now you know how many SWP/d, $1 million is worth at your current roster value. Note again that this will drop with time. (point 2 above. I have given estimates for this value in the table below as well. Third, project your roster value over the remainder of the season. Most well managed rosters go up about $10 million / month – more in the first month if you are good at selecting your initial teams. Fourth, knowing now your estimated roster value for each week or month in the rest o of the season you can calculate how many SWP $1 million is worth to you at this point in the season. RV($mil)..SWP/g/$1 mil..SWP/d/$1 mil 50...........2.8.................1.6 60...........2.6.................1.5 70...........2.4.................1.4 80...........1.9.................1.1 90...........0.5.................0.3 100.........0.0.................0.0 EXAMPLE of calculating the value to you of $1 million Suppose you now have an RV of $75. Over the next 30 days, you will gain $10 million so your average will be $80 over that period. Using the table, the $1 million is worth about 1.1 points / day or 33 points over the next month. It will be worth another 10 points over the month after that, and none after mid-March when you will have more than you need anyway. Thus the answer is that $1 million equals about 43 points for you now. Just one month ago, the answer was 85 since there were 30 more days at an average of 1.4 points per day. | |||||
| 19 | Ref ID: 3402499 Sun, Jan 14, 15:49 | CC RE: #5. DO that a several times over the course of the year and see how much that 30 SWP hurts your team. | |||||
| 20 | Ender ID: 13443221 Sun, Jan 14, 15:49 |
Sorry, Bandwagon, I appear to have put you on the defensive. I didn't mean to sound argumentative. I am enjoying the perspectives on this. Your point about O'Neal vs Wright is taken, but that was a move with no injury involved and no long term schedule benefits. It was a $$$ only move for those that made it. As far as Odom > Marion goes, anyone who made the move (myself included) will likely come out behind in SWP. That's a reality I was willing to face at this point. I took a couple risks this week and am willing to live with the consequences. If it does work out SWP-wise I keep my rose colored glasses on for a bit longer, pat myself on the back, breathe a huge sigh of relief, but you won't see me throwing it back in anyone's face. It was not a no-brainer and is an obvious high-risk, high-reward move. I feel you have to make a few of those to come out ahead and this seemed like an opportune time to go for it. O'Neal > Wright did not seem that way at the time, though those who made that move pocketed some nice $$$. I sincerely don't mean to be argumentative with anyone. The input so far on this has been great. I agree with allhair that it matters a great deal how many trades you have at the time you consider a given move, though I am not sure that is sound reasoning as the cost is still the same no matter how many trades you have left. I do my best to make trades than gain SWP and $$$, but sometimes a trade looks strong enough as a straight $$$ move for me to consider it. If there is a steep SWP cost then I don't stew on it. However the SWP cost seemed slight here, so I went for it. I have probably presented too many thoughts in one post already, but I have one thing that helps me in these situations. Right now I have 5 teams. 2 of them are basically throw away teams that I just make moves to satisfy my whims. I always make moves on these 2 moves first. I have 2 other teams that are very competitive that I put more thought into and don't take as many risks. If I make moves on the lesser teams, and have no remorse or worry, I usually go on to make the same moves on my B and C teams. This is what happened last night. My real debate was whether to go for broke on my A team. After making the move on 4 teams, I had no regrets and no buyer's remorse. It seemed like a worthwhile gamble so I went for it. It's what makes the game fun :) | |||||
| 21 | Bethesda Panthers ID: 1816120 Sun, Jan 14, 15:52 |
I forgot to answer Ender's specific question. If your team is worth $75 million a million is worth about 43 SWP (see example in my comment above) to you so it would be reasonable to sacrifice 21 or fewer points for a half million. BUT, if you team is worth $ 78 million, you are about 9 days closer to maxing out and those nine days are about 1.2 points / d / million - the value for RV between 75 and 78 (see my table). So an extra million is worth only about 32 SWP and you should not sacrifice more than 16 points for a half million. | |||||
| 22 | Ender ID: 13443221 Sun, Jan 14, 16:11 |
I did some thread checking just for kicks. Bandwagon, I saw that in addition to Iverson > Kidd, you moved Davis > Bibby. These were both moves that would have netted you the same # of games had you waited until trade refresh. Basically, they are the kind of moves I am referring to, along with a move that may lose a game. I have been grilled by some of the vets for making similar moves based on the premise "What will you do if the new player (in your case Kidd and Bibby) gets injured that night?" I am just curious about your rationale in those situations. I find myself making similar moves throughout the season when I feel it will net me a few SWP/g over the equivalent schedule period and make me some $$$. | |||||
| 23 | The Bandwagon ID: 54081216 Sun, Jan 14, 18:34 |
Ender, I love the different strategies each of the elite players have here, and if you ask my IM buddies, they will tell you I walk to the beat of a different drummer. You did not upset me one bit, I was only arguing my strategy vs yours, which is what this board needs. It is no fun if everyone agrees all the time. My way of thinking is different from some of you guys, and I like that. It keeps a different perspective to the strategys discussed here. Yes I did 1 1/2 laterals for this week. Iverson to Kidd is a lateral all the way to the break. Davis to Bibby is a lateral only to the end of this trade week, and will net a extra game next trade week, plus some nice cash gains. I really don't view the Davis to Bibby a lateral, nor would I have viewed Marion to Odom a lateral if you wasn't losing a game this trade week. Anyway, I hope you didn't take my posts as personal attacks. I also did thread checking for kicks and came up with this: "When to trade Odom out?" Ender-- "Every one of your 5 choices involves sacrificing a game. That says it all, hold him." :) | |||||
| 24 | Baldwin ID: 25440222 Sun, Jan 14, 20:16 |
What's the value of a missed 50 Pts? [This isn't going to be fun for those of us who held Nash thru his two DNP's.] A few days ago I came up with these rough figures. Dif between... 1-1000 WWR....230 pts 1000-2000.....144 2000-3000.....122 3000-4000......77 4000-5000......69 5000-6000......74 6000-7000......57 Trending to 50 pts per 1000 WWR I am dying to trade Odom>C.Webb, Sheed>Dice and my Nash>Whitney makes it easily affordable. But I am going to wait until Odom and his broken shooting hand finger finish his 4-5. It seems like I've been holding my breath forever over Odom even tho it's only been 12 days. I was also going to trade Shaq>Reef but that 70 pts from a rested Shaq [thanx to a chastened Kobe] have me rethinking this move. | |||||
| 25 | clank ID: 547422719 Sun, Jan 14, 20:29 | Baldwin, I question your numbers or maybe I don't understand. I am 218 WWR and 814 behind #1. A few days ago the gap was larger. So could you explain your numbers, thanks. | |||||
| 26 | Ender ID: 13443221 Sun, Jan 14, 20:46 |
Touche' :) Although the injury info was the thing that motivated me. I have played it conservative all season until this week. I took a couple low risk, high reward moves and they haven't panned out yet. I'll know for sure based on Dice, VC, and Odom's final games this trade week. I have a feeling I'll come out ~40 SWP behind. Live and learn :) | |||||
| 27 | Baldwin ID: 25440222 Sun, Jan 14, 21:06 |
Clank I am looking at a table I made a week or so ago. It's possible the 12,790 figure I am looking at as the highest WWR is actually the 1000WWR. [I hadn't tabulated the ranges at the time, only did so when this thread gave me the urge] | |||||
| 28 | clank ID: 547422719 Sun, Jan 14, 21:40 |
Here is the question posed by Ender as I understand it: "what people feel the exchange rate is at various points in the season. Would you sacrifice 20 or 30 SWP for $500K?" My answer to this is for the first 2 months yes. After that it becomes more of a tossup. It comes down to # of trades left, planned trades, and "gut" feeling. I traded Odom for Marion yesterday because my planned trades would not be possible $$$ wise if I didn't. I am still 1 mil short of what I want to do. Every team is different. I have my team picked out for two major days, Shaq-back and post ASB. I will sacrafice a few points to be able to make those teams happen because I believe I can make the points up with the team I will have. Would I do it near the end of the season? No | |||||
| 29 | CanEHdian Pride ID: 426351415 Mon, Dec 10, 2001, 15:37 |
INTERESTING. BUTT. | |||||
| 30 | J-Dub ID: 1810141719 Tue, Dec 11, 2001, 03:17 | $$$ is more valuable than TSNP if your roster value goes up EARLY. This allows you to have more superstars in your team so you can catch up the other teams who still have mediocre players | |||||
| 31 | Brett ID: 35424202 Tue, Dec 11, 2001, 09:10 | i agree with the past post, but , on the other hand, if u stop buying cheap money trains just 'cause u have a big RV early, you opponents will take adavantage very quickly... | |||||
| 32 | MyLakers ID: 345282521 Tue, Dec 11, 2001, 11:49 | I have to say I am STUNNED at roster values in the 70's or higher. If anyone wants me I will be crying in the corner with my 54mill dollar team and my complete lack of understanding the money in this game. | |||||
| 33 | rockafellerskank Donor ID: 171118119 Tue, Dec 11, 2001, 11:51 |
MyLakers - posts prior to #28 are pertaining to last year. This is a very old thread. I doubt anyone has hit $60M, yet although some are close rfs | |||||
| 34 | MyLakers ID: 345282521 Tue, Dec 11, 2001, 11:52 |
Ok,,just noticed the dates..my bad | |||||
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