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Subject: Effects of new rule changes
Posted by: Ender
- [13443221] Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 14:17
I would like to see some discussion and possibly links to quotes from players and coaches on the new defensive rule changes.
I have my own thoughts and assumptions, but have only been able to catch two preseason games so I don't have much of a measuring stick. I did hear Tim Floyd say that the Bulls have run zone for about 15 mins total and have played 0 minutes against it so far.
I'm pieceing together my own thoughts and understanding as a basketball coach, but I would like to hear what others have to say. |
| 1 | rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 52937259
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 14:32
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comments by Nuggets
Raptor comments
I couldn't find any other recent articles or player comments. There's plenty of stuff written from April by writers and such as the give their $0.02 as to what the changes will mean if you are interested in those opinions.
rfs
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| 2 | rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 52937259
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 14:39
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Bill Walton's opinion (if anyone cares)
Bill,
How do you think Shaq will be affected by the new rules, in particular the zone defense?
Thanks from Pete
Worcester, Mass.
Pete,
Shaq, who had surgery on his left small toe on Aug. 30 and will miss most of training camp, has voiced his displeasure over the NBA’s new rules for the upcoming season, which include allowing zone defenses for the first time in league history. However, while teams will be forced to become more imaginative and creative offensively, I feel that O’Neal will remain the most dominant force in the league-regardless of how teams choose to defend him. If anything, he’ll improve as a player because, while he’s already a top passer, O’Neal will be forced to become even stronger in that area as zone defenses surely will collapse on him and he’ll need to kick the ball out.
Los Angeles Lakers center Shaquille O'Neal
To avoid facing zone defenses, I feel the Lakers — like many teams — will be forced to fast break more often. And that plays directly into Shaq’s hands because he is a very athletic player, who thrives when the L.A. runs its fast-break offense.
That said, I don’t feel the Lakers’ opponents will make it a common practice to try to contain Shaq by playing a zone defense against him. But if they do, O’Neal will pass out to teammates for open jump shots and layups.
Overall, O’Neal, one of the league’s all-time greats, has proven that he can overcome any defense. Thus, I don’t feel that he’ll have much trouble conquering the zone.
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| 3 | Aris3
ID: 399161218
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 14:39
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I was watching games just to see some zone being used, and finally the Lakers went into a 1-3-1 with Shaq as the last palyer and Fox in the middle. Unfortunately Chick didn't notice it and I didn't read about it after the game either.
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| 4 | rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 52937259
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 14:43
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comments by Brian Doolittle of TSN
rfs
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| 5 | rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 52937259
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 14:47
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comments by Sean Deveney of TSN
and you gotta read this one:
Statistical Effects of Proposed NBA Rule Changes by: Dean Oliver
Journal of Basketball Studies
I gotta get back to work now....
rfs
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| 6 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 14:52
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Do y'all think the zone will negatively affect AI's ability to create inside?
Pondering a trading away Cassell and Miles to get AI, in a league which weights assists rather highly.
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| 7 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 14:58
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From rfs's Nugget's article:
"In addition to allowing zone defenses, NBA rule changes call for teams to advance the ball to the frontcourt within eight seconds, instead of the previously allowed 10; some hand-checking by defensive players will now be allowed; and defensive players who aren't closely guarding an opponent can't stay in the lane for more than three seconds at a time."
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| 8 | DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 15:07
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Hand checking will bother players like AI, and Kobe who like to create and were free to do so with the hand checking foul rules.
San Antonio played zone defense against the Rockets the other day, and were picked apart by the rocket offense.
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| 9 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 15:17
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Nice links rsf. Read 'em all, the last one is probably the most helpful, but honestly, IMO, what Oliver does is really just summarize the rule changes rather than make any predictions based on them. That being said, it's still very valuable because the rules are clearly stated and explained.
I plan on posting more as the day goes on because I have had time to think it over and discuss it with some other veteran gurupies. Hopefully there's some more coached lurking around here to offer their perspective.
Let me start by saying that I think we are far more likely to see truer man-to-man defense than ever rather than a shift to zone defense. The old illegal defense rules did not allow for solid help-side man-to-man. The old rules forced a strict man-to-man that required a defender to stay pretty much glued to his man, rather than being able to sag from the weakside and help on the ball. This is why we saw so many isolation plays (which by the way is the real reason for the rule change, rather than to allow zone so people could "stop" Shaq IMO). Basically, we will not see your typical zone defenses like 2-3, 2-1-2, or even 1-3-1 that would totally clog the lane. I say that simply because the defensive 3 second rule simply doesn't allow a defender to camp in the middle of the lane.
I'll leave it at that for the moment. I think the most signigificant rule is the defensive 3 second rule. Obviously removing the illegal defense call will materially change the game, but the 3 second rule will dictate how the game changes.
I'm mulling the 8 second backcourt rule and will post more after I stew on it for a bit longer.
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| 10 | Ref
ID: 235252912
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 15:34
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Ender, I was going to go into a long note about what I've experienced, but thought I'd give you some links that I've seen that basically echo my sentiments. From what I've seen so far though is that people play more off men that can't shoot and half-way cheat double team.
Rules
Below is some commentary with the NBA Director of Officials, Ed Rush:
link
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| 11 | Ref
ID: 235252912
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 16:31
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Ender, here is a story from CBS. Couldn't give the link because it is password protected:
Two of the most frequently discussed topics during the offseason were the changing of the rules and how it would affect the NBA's players. In this edition of The Crossover, we will interpret each rule in layman's terms and discuss the effect it will have on Fantasy Basketball. We will also tackle some of the myths that have been created as a result of the new regulations.
Illegal defense guidelines will be eliminated
This basically means that there will be no more illegal defense calls. NBA teams are now free to play whatever type of defense they would like. Some teams will play zones, while others will stick to man-to-man defense. For the first few months of the season, teams will experiment with different defensive schemes. Offenses will have trouble adjusting to this new rule, resulting in both extremely low-scoring games and shootouts. Eventually, the league as a whole will adjust to the new rules and gain a rhythm of play that will only affect overall Fantasy production slightly. The scoring won't increase too much, and players will simply score in different ways. The NBA's elite players will remain the same.
Myth: Teams will play 2-3 and 3-2 zones like the college squads. Don't expect to see teams come out in a 2-3 zone a la Syracuse University. This just won't work at the professional level. NBA players are stereotyped as athletes that can run and jump but can't shoot, yet that is not necessarily true. There are some players who can't shoot a lick, but the majority of the competitors are excellent shooters from mid-range. They do struggle from three-point range, hence the stereotype. Zones will push out to the three-point range, but this will provide players with enough room to score from the mid-range. If a team decides to come out in a zone, you will see players use their mid-range shooting abilities more. The players who can shoot from three-point range will only have their talents enhanced. Teams that try to play the "college" game will be blown out. New defenses will be a hybrid of zone and man-to-man.
Some teams might not play a zone at all and will simply stick to man-to- man. "I don't want to play zone, I don't want to teach something I'm not good at,'' Sixers Head Coach Larry Brown said. "I don't anticipate us playing a lot of zone, and I do anticipate us playing against a lot of zone.''
"We've done nothing,'' Spurs guard Antonio Daniels told the San Antonio Express-News. "No zones. No halfcourt zones. Nothing like that. Guys may do certain things individually to use the rules to their advantage, but overall, we haven't done anything as a team."
A defensive three-second rule will prohibit a defender from remaining in the lane without closely guarding an offensive player
This rule basically makes it impossible for teams to play "college" zones. This second rule also makes the elimination of illegal defense a moot point, because it simply puts a new restriction on the type of defense you can play. Over time this will become the "new" illegal defense call. The penalty for those that don't follow the rule is the same as for the old one, a free throw for the opposing team. Big men like Shaquille O'Neal won't be able to anchor a zone by camping out in the lane.
Don't worry about Shaq hogging the lane on defense. (AP)
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There might be some zones implemented in which centers and forwards are positioned on the blocks while the guards roam the perimeter, but don't count on it.
New Trend: Centers and forwards that can shoot will improve their scoring. Because centers and forwards are generally the tallest players and major obstacles for players driving to the basket, many of the new offenses will be designed to draw the giants away from the basket. But this will only be for teams whose best players are guards, like the Sixers and Bucks. So jump- shooting big men like Matt Geiger and Scott Williams will get more attempts. They won't become Fantasy studs, but their scoring will increase.
With centers and forwards positioned more on the perimeter blocks, rebounds will be harder for them to accumulate since they will be away from the action. Athletic guards and forwards like Tracy McGrady and Steve Francis will get more blocks, while the numbers of defenders like Dikembe Mutombo will decline slightly.
A team has to get the ball past midcourt in eight seconds instead of ten
This rule will have the least affect on Fantasy Basketball. There might be some times when teams will apply extreme pressure on ballhandlers and force turnovers, but this won't happen enough to affect the steals categories. NBA ballhandlers are some of the best dribblers in the world. Aggressive defenders like Gary Payton and Eric Snow might apply more pressure on the ball and get an extra steal, but don't expect a drastic increase in this category.
Myth: Teams will fast break more because they have less time to get the ball upcourt. Many believe that this rule will return the league to its run- and-gun days of the 1980s, when fast breaking was the name of the game. Don't expect that to happen. Teams will continue to play to their strengths. Squads like the Lakers will continue to pick and choose when they run, because they are more of a halfcourt team. Fast-breaking teams like the Kings will continue to do so, but won't push the bull on every play. You will simply see teams get the ball up the court faster, to set up their halfcourt offense.
Brief contact initiated by a defender will be allowed if it does not impede the progress of the player with the ball
The impact that this rule has depends on how it is enforced. If it is enforced strictly, one-on-one defense will be how it was before last season's rule change, which prohibited defenders from touching above the perimeter at all. If officials give a lot of leeway, then the league will return to the days of heavy hand checking, the era in the mid-1990s when players like Derek Harper would hassle ballhandlers all over the court and frequently pick their pockets with the help of a bump… hand check. Once again, this rule would help aggressive, physical defenders like Payton or Scottie Pippen get steals.
More myths
Shaquille O'Neal and other dominant post men will have problems scoring because of the new rules. A quick glance at the new rules would tell you this would be the case, but Shaq is so strong that he normally powers his way through two and three defenders down low to score. The Lakers might have trouble getting him the ball in the post, but he will get the ball enough to maintain his averages from last season. Most post players like Chris Webber and Tim Duncan aren't as strong as Shaq and will have problems beating double and triple teams down low, but they still shoot well from the perimeter and will utilize mid-range jumpers to score. The few post players that are one- dimensional and can't make mid-range jumpers don't warrant Fantasy consideration anyway.
Dribble drivers like Steve Francis won't be able to go to the basket as easily. This is one of the more popular myths but that won't be the case. "I love it [new rules]," Francis told the Houston Chronicle. "I remember so many times last year that the baseline guy, who is always in the corner, could always come over to draw a charge or cut off a guy driving. Now, he can't get there." Because players are not permitted to camp out in the lane, isolation plays will still be run for guards that are skilled at driving to the basket. Players like Francis and Marbury will excel at this and improve their scoring because of it.
Stars like Iverson, McGrady, Kobe Bryant and Vince Carter will face multiple coverage and struggle to score. This is another fallacy. These wing players will probably face an assortment of gimmick defenses, box-in-ones and triangle-and- twos. Although defenses will attack them from different angles, these premier players are used to getting double and triple teamed. They fought through multiple defenders on a regular basis last season to score. The stars will struggle at times, but their production will remain the same and probably increase.
NBA games will be high-scoring games once again. For the most part, the scoring in the preseason action has mirrored the pace of last season. There will be times during the regular season where there will be some high scores, but you won't have a revue of the old Nuggets-Mavericks games of the late- 1980s, in which the teams combined to score over 300 points. In contrast, you won't see a rehash of the ugly Nets-Bulls games over the past few seasons in which the teams' combined efforts failed to surpass 150 points.
Older players will excel because of the new rules. This myth is actually true. Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, John Stockton and the other elderly players of the game will remain productive because of the new rules. Being able to play a semblance of a zone on defense or attack it on offense will allow the cagey veterans to find rest within the game. They won't have to be very active to be effective and will be able to conserve their energy. The rules could even extend their careers a few extra years if they choose to play that long.
One-dimensional shooters will excel. There will be a clamor for one- dimensional sharpshooters, but don't expect to see players like Dell Curry averaging 20 points per game. The new rules will make average players better. It will increase the scoring of the elite players slightly, but for players like Bryant and McGrady who are entering their primes, the regulations won't increase their worth anymore than the natural maturation process would have. The rules won't make any drastic changes in Fantasy basketball but it will make the NBA game more aesthetic.
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| 12 | KB8ers GM
ID: 0616111
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 17:54
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I've seen a couple of pre-season games (various Knick and Net games) and have not seen any form of zone D's. No modified 2-3's (cuz of the new defensive 3 sec rule), box & 1's, tri's & 2's, not even the full-court press, nada. And there have been several instances when they could have been used, like when teams were gettin easy dribble penetration. I'm wonderin if coaches are keepin new defensive schemes a secret til the regular season starts?
What I have noticed tho is much more ball movement without the ball. Obviously, killin the old illegal defense rule, means less use of the pick & roll and no isolation plays to exploit 1 on 1 mismatches. Jus what Stern wants.
I'll need to see more games to make better observations.
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| 13 | VIDevilRays
Leader
ID: 29439176
Thu, Oct 25, 2001, 19:31
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FWIW-I have heard that coaches are keeping things under wraps. We shall see.
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| 14 | rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4917268
Fri, Oct 26, 2001, 11:13
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A decent article from yahoo sports.......
rfs
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| 15 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Fri, Oct 26, 2001, 13:46
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Another good article, rsf.
The following is just my opinion, but I have thought about it a lot over the last couple days. It won't take "long range" shooters to bust a zone. Quick ball reversals from strong side to weak side will create scoring opportunities either by jumpshot or dribble penetration. Players will also be able to flash into the free throw line area against almost any zone, especially with the 3 second defense in the lane rule. The more and more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that it's simply not practicle to play a zone defense without putting a man in the lane.
I think people are putting too much emphasis on zone as a result of the removal of the illegal defense rule. I think the removal of that rule simply does away with isolation and allows teams to play full, help-side, man-to-man defense, except weakside defenders can not sag all the way to the middle of the lane. Double teams WILL be more common, on the ball and off the ball.
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| 16 | prefek
ID: 44956269
Fri, Oct 26, 2001, 13:59
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I think the most visible effect of the new rule changed (both in terms of occurrence and impact on the game) will be the defensive 3-second rule. I went to a couple of summer league games where they were calling it and it seems that will take a while for some players, especially lane hogs like Shaq, to adjust to. I expect 1-3 such calls a game. The technical free throw penalty seems rather harsh- I'd at least implement a warning like illegal defense had.
I'm still a littke shaky on the hand-checking.
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| 17 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Fri, Oct 26, 2001, 14:03
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Here are some quotes:
"It's kind of a work in progress. We had [some] referees come in and talk to us, and I don't even think that they're clear on their guidelines. ... [But] I don't think the new rules are going to dictate guys shooting jump shots all the time. I do think it's going to speed the game up."
Larry Brown, Philadelphia
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"I really think they've opened up the middle of the court. They've demanded teams to pass the basketball, which I think is making the game a better team game. I have not seen a defense designed by a coach that has made the game worse or created a problem for the game."
George Karl, Milwaukee
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"Any team that has a couple of big guys who are very talented, quick shot-blockers who can close out on shooters, can really have an impact. San Antonio seems to be one of the teams that will be very effective with it, with both [David] Robinson and [Tim] Duncan."
Pat Riley, Miami
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"I keep hearing that [the Spurs will benefit most], so sometimes I wake up and feel like a dummy because I'm supposed to be doing something to take advantage of these rules. But I don't see any reason to change."
Gregg Popovich, San Antonio
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| 18 | prefek
ID: 46933312
Wed, Oct 31, 2001, 03:14
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For what it's worth:
Average scores per team for opening night. 96.1 ppg, which I think is above last year's season average.
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| 19 | ...
ID: 2133232
Sat, Feb 23, 2002, 02:33
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BUTT
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