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Subject: Just helping out... Stat Predictor
Posted by: KJHoops
- [2410411122] Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 17:16
Hi guys,
I am kinda new to the world of fantasy sports but I have really gotten hooked.
I spent the last week creating a Predictor program to help me pick players.
I am opening up my Predictor to the public for people to use. Feel free to use...
The Predictor
Please send me feedback. Let me know what I can do to improve it.
hoops@huntkjnc.com
http://www.huntkjnc.com/hoops/
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| 1 | allhair allstars
Sustainer
ID: 5734610
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 17:21
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Fun stuff. I like the bar chart stat look. Still exploring, but I've book marked for future look-sees.
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| 2 | Ender
ID: 52438315
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 17:23
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I only took a quick look. I would change one thing: In your rankings by position you include players like Tim Duncan as FC. I understand that they may play 2 positions in real life, but TSN only lists them at one, so I would rank them only according to their TSN position.
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| 3 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 17:38
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Nice job!
Ender - I see your point, but some of the stats are general (not related to TSN), so I can see where it might be useful to keep multiple positions.
Of course this coming from someone only playing PSC! ;)
When's the PSC version coming down the pipe!?!
;)
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| 4 | Mikel
ID: 33156417
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 17:41
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very nice...i like the predictions. Dont have to do that by hand now.
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| 5 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 17:57
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Pretty nice, althought the Predictor is pretty much the same thing as Guru's Assimilator, with the exception that the Assimilator allows much greater flexibility as far as projecting based on averages over the last 7, 14, etc.. days.
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| 6 | culdeus
Donor
ID: 51014269
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 17:58
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I see you pick game winners too in a way.
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| 7 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 17:58
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Not to mention, the Assimilator allows you to track your whole team, including prices, so that you can plan out all your trades ahead of time - before you go to TSN and screw something up.
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| 8 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:04
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Does the assimilator allow comparisons of folks with different numbers of games/wk?
Example of what I would want (for PSC, actually):
Tinsley - 20 pts/g/$m, 3 games this week = 60 pts/WK/$m
vs.
Moochie - 12 pts/g/$m, 5 games this week = 60 pts/WK/$mi
(mayble allow for variable time period, not just a week)
conclusion: A wash. Don't trade.
If you build it, I will come.
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| 9 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:08
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Don't know if it breaks it down by pts/game/$M, but the sortable stats do. I still have yet to see anything that beats the combination of the assimilator and the sartibles.
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| 10 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:10
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AZD - Not sure if you noticed, but what I want is more than that - pts/WEEK/$M. Currently, I am forced to do this by hand (well..., excel) every week.
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| 11 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:15
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To my knowledge, there is no tool out there that will do that for you, but I bet Guru could include it easily. (I'm sure he appreciates me offering up his time) I never really had a situation where I thought that would be helpful - but I see where it could be, now that I think about it.
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| 12 | joe suspect
Donor
ID: 441143311
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:15
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agreed, azdbacker. I copy the sartibles' projection to excel and then run solver, just to come up with combinations that I haven't thought of.
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| 13 | joe suspect
Donor
ID: 441143311
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:19
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biliruben, maybe I'm misunderstanding you. But if you use the projected stats over a 7 day period, wouldn't the SNP/$M give you that information?
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| 14 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:22
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What are projected stats?!?
Maybe Guru has built it, but I'm clueless.
I will go explore.
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| 15 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:30
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Wow!
Think of all the time I would have saved! A bit confused on what the "combined" does for you, however.
The second option seems to do precisely what I asked, however!
This is much more powerful than any of the other sartibles. Dang! Sweet job, Guru.
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| 16 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:32
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bili - if you're serious - using the bottom filters on the Sortable Stats, you can project a listing of every player's projected point total, for whatever period, using the past 7, 14, 30 days or entire year averages.
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| 18 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:34
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Yeah, I'm serious. This is my first year playing any fantasy hoops. Can't beleive I didn't pursue those pesky and confusing buttons at the bottom! I did you the filter options, however.
Baby steps, baby.
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| 19 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 119491116
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:35
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Is there a way to project over a future time period with the current stats...
Ex.
project from 12/12 (or any date) for 21 days, but do it now?
That'd be pretty cool.
;)
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| 20 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:36
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Yeah, that is perfect for you. It does show SNP/$M, along with the total points for the projected time period.
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| 21 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:37
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Yeah - unless I am misunderstanding, you can choose any date and time period, smallwhirled!
I wish some old-hands had walked through the "Sartibles 101" course at the beginning of the season!
Dang you! Saving all the goodies for yourselves! ;)
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| 23 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 119491116
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:45
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Geez, now don't I feel like an idiot.
Now I see the button that allows you to change that date, it's something I've thought about for a while but never brought up....I can't believe that I never saw it!!!!
At least I new about the filter on the bottom, biliruben.
:)
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| 24 | culdeus
Donor
ID: 51014269
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:46
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I see a problem, Correct me but I think you all aren't looking into the new thing in as much depth as it is. Seems to me like it is a real "projector" if you look at the bar charts they are different from the average. However the "sortables" "assimilator" function uses the average. This would be a much better tool if it actually used your projections not the averages like Guru has.
10.5 points for Shaq against SEA seems low. Plus they win....
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| 25 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:50
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Figured out what the combined does - pts/5wks+proj.7days/$m, as of this week. Not all that useful, IMHO. Injuries, PT changes etc.. foul it up.
If combined was where you average YTD data with maybe last week or two weeks data, to get a weighted average of both near-term data reflecting modified PT/performance as well as YTD performance as input, but still base the projection on the number of days your are interested in (i.e. # games the player plays in the next week) would be more useful.
God, I'm so demanding! ;)
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| 26 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 18:51
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The averages are likely to be closer to reality than any numbers you are likely to 'project' on your own. I have never, ever, seen anything that makes me think people can adequately predict individual player performance in a basketball game - at least not well enough to make it relavent.
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| 27 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Dec 04, 2001, 20:10
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The combined option is there to help you forecast what the historical sartibles (or the point rankings at the game site) will look like after some future date. It essentially takes the current actual points and then adds in the projected points.
It is most useful early in the year when you want to see what the point rankings might look like in a week or two, in case you want to see who the price movers might look like. Frankly, I haven't used that much.
The Assimilator projection will allow you to override any pts/game average and substitute your own. You can also shift the starting date, although you are stuck with a 14-day period.
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| 28 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 01:08
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That actually does sound like a good idea for the start of the season.
As always, thanks for the best tools in the business, Guru.
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| 29 | KTxGOD
ID: 40716221
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 03:25
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billiruben whats your team name in PSC?
i hope your team name isnt SPLAT, cuz he is beating me and i dont spend all that time thinking and calculating like u do =)
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| 30 | DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 07:27
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Very good job KJHoops, keep it up...
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| 31 | fon
ID: 22103387
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 07:45
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Very nice!
Thank you very much!
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| 32 | TaRhEElKiD
ID: 42109719
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 08:21
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Dang, this is easy to use...I like it!
Thanks
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| 33 | Matlock
ID: 3610172217
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 09:51
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I think you did a great JOB !!! It helped me to make my picks this week.. Thank you for sharing this with us (me).
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| 34 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 231045110
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 11:22
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KTxGOD - I'm only playing the Progressive pay game... me and my 4 closest buddies. ;)
You have no need to fear me in any case, as evidenced by my inability to negotiate Guru's sartibles! ;)
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| 35 | chuckball
Donor
ID: 259122914
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 12:17
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Nice work, KJ. One minor thing, it looks like the dates on the individual stats page is wrong. Looks like an adding problem, since the date gets more and more off towards the later games.
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| 36 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 15:06
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chuckball, thanks for the heads up. They dates should be correct now.
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| 37 | chuckball
Donor
ID: 259122914
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 15:29
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what are you using for a stat feed? Yahoo? allstarstats?
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| 38 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 15:49
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I have my own stat feed thanks to a buddy of mine. :)
Yahoo doesn't offer enough stats for what I wanted and as far as I know Yahoo stats are for personal use only (whatever that means).
:)
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| 39 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 16:29
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PSC stats are on the site now in beta
MJ's PSC stats
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| 40 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 16:35
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sweet!
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| 41 | Farn
ID: 2310151714
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 18:07
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anybody have the program that Recycled Spinal Fluid and Dan use at night so we can figure out what our SWP totals were for the night? i would love to get my hands on that.
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| 42 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 20:11
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biliruben, you will be happy to know that PSC is fully supported now.
Let me know if I missed anything...
The Predictor
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| 43 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Wed, Dec 05, 2001, 20:24
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KJ - Thanks!
Some problems I notice right away for the predictor:
- you are missing some Centers Gasol and Kirilenko are AWOL (at least).
- Your start dates are all today, on the initial screen. I would like to have the option to look retrospectively (punch in past dates), to see how well (or more often - how poorly) my players are doing.
- I may have screwed up, but it appears that the wildcards just got tossed up to the 3 guard positions, and replace the guards I already had there.
Good first attempt though!
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| 44 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Dec 12, 2001, 11:36
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Hey guys, I updated The Predictor.
Now has the best possible lineup feature.
The Predictor
Other features coming soon (hopefully later today)... stay tuned.
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| 45 | KTxGOD
ID: 40716221
Wed, Dec 12, 2001, 11:43
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Nice Work KJH!
but both your "best possible lineup features" link towards the TSN game..
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| 46 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Dec 12, 2001, 11:54
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Thanks for the heads up.
It is correct now.
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| 47 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Feb 13, 2002, 11:59
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Hey guys...
I made some updates over allstar break.
The big update is the ability to save your roster
in the predictor. No more having to reinsert your
roster everytime.
KJHoops: Predictor
(Currently you are only allowed to save one roster
but this may change. )
If I have free time this week, more updates will be made live also.
As always, suggestions for additions are welcome.
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| 48 | wongyjongy
ID: 4610102423
Wed, Feb 13, 2002, 12:16
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How about implementing a best possible roster predictor for a given RV?
Or, how about a best possible trade predictor for a given roster, cash left, and trades banked?
Thanks~
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| 49 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Fri, Feb 15, 2002, 15:10
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Ok 2 updates today!
1) Most Reliable Player page
The page will tell you which players are more reliable.
Very good way to help you pick between a bunch of players who all
average about the same amount by picking the most consistent one.
Most Reliable
2) Update to the TSNP Fantasy Team Preditor
Now you can click on the "improve" link by a player and see all the
players that would give you better production than the selected player.
TSNP Fantasy Team Predictor
As always comments, suggestions, complaints, and corrections are welcome.
KJHoops
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| 50 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 17:15
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1 major update to report
Added a newsletter but you can also view the newsletter without having to signup.
Click below to view the current newsletter.
KJHoops Newsletter
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| 51 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 17:39
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Because I have had questions here are some explanations of the Newsletter...
Top 10 Best Performers (Last Night)
- shows players who went well above their tsnp season average last night
Top 10 Worst Performers (Last Night)
- shows players who went well above their tsnp season average last night
- great way to get a heads up about players who may have gotten hurt or have reduced minutes.
Top 10 Best Performers (last 5 games)
- shows players whose average over the last 5 games is above their tsnp season average
Top 10 Worst Performers (Last Night)
- shows players whose average over the last 5 games is below their tsnp season average
The Best Player Predictor for next 7 days
The Best Player Predictor for next 14 days
- both of these are just excerpts from The Predictor.
- to help you make a decision those prefreeze trades
The Newsletter will be sent out every day after the site is updated. But you don't have to signup to get the info. Just go to http://www.huntkjnc.com/hoops/newsletter.php to see the latest one.
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