RotoGuru Basketball Forum

0 Subject: Optimum Roster Results

Posted by: Mike D - [391381318] Sun, Feb 13, 20:07

Guru had graciously made his Smallword Roster Optimizer available for download. I finally had a chance to tinker with it. It had been set up to measure swp/game, but that didn't consider upcoming schedules. I have used the projected sortables for imported data, and have run rosters at several price ranges and also differing time frames. In the short term, my roster could never meet the "optimized" one, because I don't have enough trades left. Still, with a break in the actual games, I thought it was a good time to share some results.

At 85 million, 10 days starting 2/15, total projected points:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 310.0
F Min Garnett, Kevin 13,690 292.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 262.0
G LAL Bryant, Kobe 9,290 245.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 240.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 235.0
G Was Strickland, Rod 8,220 235.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 204.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 203.0
G Was Whitney, Chris 610 97.0
81,520 2323.0

85 million is roughly the average gurupie salary cap per J's standings.

At 90 million:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 310.0
F Min Garnett, Kevin 13,690 292.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 262.0
G LAL Bryant, Kobe 9,290 245.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 240.0
F Van Abdur-rahim, Shareef 10,000 238.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 235.0
G Was Strickland, Rod 8,220 235.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 203.0
G LAC Anderson, Derek 4,530 195.0
89,940 2455.0
1Pond Scum
      ID: 4601296
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:18
Thanks Mike D. Who the heck is Whitney? I know, I know, I'm going to look....
2KB8ers GM
      ID: 590592819
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:20
Back-up point guard to Strickland
3 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:23
Surprised me too, Pond Scum. I ran my actual salary caps (multiple teams) and got somewhat expected results. 1 surprise was at 97 mill. I got Danny Ferry (500k). Is he even playing?
4Pond Scum
      ID: 4601296
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:29
Whitney seems like great value, about 15SWP/game for $610K. Having two point guards on the same team would seem to me to be limiting upside (if one is exploding, the other is on the bench?). Especially Washington.... Is the optimizer driving toward complete expenditure of available cash (not always the right model for flexibility, methinks)?
5 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:38
No, Pond Scum. Notice that the total amountn of money used on that roster was only $81,520, yet I said it was the $85 million dollar team. I agree it would be unusual, and probably not too wise, to have Strickland and Whitney. That's where the brain has to overrule the statistics, something KB advocates strongly.
6Pond Scum
      ID: 4601296
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:48
With cash to spare, why would the model select Marshall over Coleman? I think this shows how crucial the timeframes you select are. One is, what timeframe do you use to average points for projection. In my model, Coleman out points Marshall by almost 8 per game. Another timeframe is the outlook period, extend it a bit and Coleman pulls ahead. Viva la brain...?
7HuskerFan
      ID: 38058294
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:51
Pond Scum, it didn't pick Marshall OVER Coleman, it picked Marshall AND Coleman. He's there too.
8 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:55
Thanks Husker Fan. Pond Scum, no question the choices change depending on how long you project them out. I ran them all at 17 days starting 2/15 and here's what I got----at 85 million:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 517.0
F SAS Duncan, Tim 12,090 463.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 440.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 437.0
G LAL Bryant, Kobe 9,290 408.0
G NJN Marbury, Stephon 9,670 392.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 391.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 374.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 305.0
G NYK Ward, Charlie 4,100 302.0
84,860 4029.0
9Pond Scum
      ID: 4601296
      Sun, Feb 13, 21:57
Ouch. OK, time for bed. Instead of Marshall, I have Odom who (I hope) is getting downgraded by this model by his recent flu-induced lower scores. From looking at him yesterday, Lamar looks ready for the second half. The 10 day outlook is just short of LAC's thinning schedule. Perhaps this is another way the optimiser can be misleading?
10 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Sun, Feb 13, 22:03
I used the last 15 days as the point period, so no doubt Odom was affected by that. But so were his owners. The optimizer has no idea who will make more money, and therefore Odom still would be a wise choice over Marshall, Pond Scum.
11Pond Scum
      ID: 4601296
      Sun, Feb 13, 22:06
Thanks, Mide D, food for thought. Interesting that both Wash g's disappear in favor of Marbury and Ward...probably not worth their short term benefit. Ward is an interesting thought, Knick schedule definitely picks up. I think the message here is that a cheap guard that gets some points should be part of the mix at this roster value. I actually have this model as well, although at the moment, I have Lenard filling this role.
12 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Sun, Feb 13, 22:11
Lenard could very well play great. Using past performance as an indicator of future behavior is definitely not an exact science. I was more interested in the breakdown of the money than the players that were chosen. You point that out as well, Pond Scum.
13Pond Scum
      ID: 4601296
      Sun, Feb 13, 22:11
sorry Mike D about botching your name. Actually Mide Mike D has a bit of a ring....
14steve houpt
      ID: 11017290
      Sun, Feb 13, 22:27
Some options you could do when runnung the optimizer.

- screen out certain players. If using 15 day averages you could screen out players like Whitney by having the sortables eliminate players with less that 15/G over 30 days.

- hand input averages for players like Odom to what you think it should/will be.

- run it with 15 and 30 day averages over 10 and 17 days (14/21) and look at the "common" players that show up.

The user can set up limits/options that may give even 'more optimum' results for you.
15 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Sun, Feb 13, 22:36
Good points steve. I actually wanted as many possibilities as I could have and included around the top 250. I figured we have the option to choose from any NBA player, so I wanted the optimizer to be able to as well. Whitney was a surprise, but the "slot" wasn't as surprising.
16steve houpt
      ID: 11017290
      Sun, Feb 13, 22:39
Also - Guru said it does not always give the "optimum" roster. There are 18 guards under the $4.09M you have to fill Whitney's slot that are projected to score more than 97 SWP's (next 10 days/L15 AVG).
17 Mike D
      ID: 19116116
      Mon, Feb 14, 06:25
18? Wow, I did see a couple (Bobby Jackson) but didn't take the time to count it.
18Dai
      ID: 4207314
      Mon, Feb 14, 06:33
Where can I download this from ?
19 Edgar
      ID: 39033293
      Mon, Feb 14, 06:35
Could anyone tell me where I can download this unique tool?? That would save me a lot of effort.
20steve houpt
      ID: 11017290
      Mon, Feb 14, 06:47
See "Guru - optimizer program"
21steve houpt
      ID: 11017290
      Mon, Feb 14, 07:04
I didn't count them either. Just sorted guards with $4.09m as max limit and Whitney was 19th.
22 Mike D
      ID: 19116116
      Mon, Feb 14, 07:05
steve, between the 2 of us, we just might be able to make some sense out of all this.
23skinneej
      ID: 3051316
      Mon, Feb 14, 08:51
Good points steve. Since Guru sent me the program several weeks back, I have played around with it many diffent ways. I added two sheets to import data for 15 and 30 day averages and then project for 14 days typically. I also changed the formula to calculate total swp rather than swp/g. If after running the optimizer, I notice an anomaly I will set a player to false or force certain players I want. I also will change some player's swp/g averages as you mentioned if I feel they will over/under perform. As with any tool, it is how it is used that makes the difference.
24Fivalive
      ID: 18142148
      Mon, Feb 14, 09:01
Skineej-- I can get 15 and 30 day averages into excel-- how do you turn that into projections?? Do you combine w/ schedule data manually??
25 Mike D
      ID: 20253112
      Mon, Feb 14, 09:06
Skinneej, that's basically what I do too------the results in this thread reflect projected points. The only reason I deviated from 7 day interval projections was due to the ASB and short week. That's why I used 10 and 17 days, starting 2/15. Fivalive, imported the projected data and then change a few formulas. Guru's first page at the bottom had the general idea. If you need more specifics I can help you.
26skinneej
      ID: 3051316
      Mon, Feb 14, 09:26
MikeD, yeah I used 17 days for the next time period.

Fivalive, just what MikeD said. Use the filter section of the sortables to select the time period and projected points rather than historical. Sort out all the stuff you don't want after pasting into Excel, and you should be set.
27Whitey
      ID: 48018318
      Mon, Feb 14, 09:29
Looking at Mike D's original post, I have everyone on the 90million dollar roster except Bibby instead of Strickland and Webber instead of Garnett. It doesn't me surprise that I have many of those players because I set up my team to produce the most possible points from 2/15-2/24 while also making some $$$ gains. I am also hoping to save some trades over the next 10 days (with any luck).
28 Mike D
      ID: 20253112
      Mon, Feb 14, 09:31
Geez Whitey, from now on we won't run the program, we'll just check your roster. ;)
29Richard
      ID: 36024318
      Mon, Feb 14, 09:32
Fivalive - The Guru's stats have the option (found near the bottom of his stat page) to calculate projected points. You can set his sortable stats to project into the future using either 15-day, 7 day or season average. This projection uses the scheduled games over the time period specified. Just cut and paste this data into a page of the optimizer and you will be well on your way to optimizing using total projected points rather than per game averages.

Richard
30Shifty
      ID: 40136147
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:02
Mike D. Thanks for bringing this great tool back to the forefront. I wish I would have spent the time using this tool to assist with selecting my mid season team.
31Fivalive
      ID: 18142148
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:07
Thanks-- I was trying to find an "automated" way to get stats-- I've been cutting & pasting myself. I tried to get a macro together to open proj point pages but so far no luck (I can get current stats no problem)--
I can go to stat filters page, enter info, but can't get macro to press button at bottom of page to open up proj stats page (and obviously url for proj stats page is the same no matter what stats you request so a regular web query won't work).

Guess I'll have to cut & paste until I figure it out...

Either way an awesome tool-- thanks again GURU
32 Mike D
      ID: 20253112
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:10
Shifty, I'm not playing mid-season, so I didn't even think about that. Sorry. :(
33J
      ID: 2908318
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:11
any info for us and our 50mil rosters?
34 Mike D
      ID: 20253112
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:12
Fivalive, I too would like to design a macro but haven't had the chance. I've been spoiled by Richard and his NBA stats spreadsheet.
35 Mike D
      ID: 20253112
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:15
Here you go J:

10 days starting 2/15, at 50 million:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 310.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 262.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 235.0
G LAC Anderson, Derek 4,530 195.0
G Van Dickerson, Michael 4,220 172.0
C LAC Olowokandi, Michael 5,050 172.0
F Phi Ratliff, Theo 5,430 161.0
G LAC Murdock, Eric 640 138.0
F Ind Mckey, Derrick 630 137.0
F Was Murray, Tracy 730 128.0
50,000 1910.0
36 Mike D
      ID: 20253112
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:16
And here is the 17 day projection starting 2/15:

C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 440.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 437.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 391.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 374.0
F Phi Ratliff, Theo 5,430 322.0
G Phi Snow, Eric 5,170 313.0
G NYK Ward, Charlie 4,100 302.0
F Pho Marion, Shawn 1,870 225.0
C NJN Mcilvaine, Jim 710 177.0
G Den Posey, James 1,450 176.0
50,000 3157.0
37Richard
      ID: 36024318
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:20
Fivalive - Automating the download is tough. Here's a code fragment that will open Guru's sortable stats - I'm not sure what all of the options are but I've figured out the last few (...2102-151):
The 21 is the 21 day projection
the 02-15 is the starting day (start projecting on Feb 15)
and the very last 1, I think is the flag for projecting points.

Workbooks.Open FileName:= _
"http://rotoguru1.com/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/rotoguru/hstats.cgi?04s0241011++++00300000002102-151"

I've done most of what you want to do. I've created a macro that opens the sortable stats using the options listed above. I just need to figure out how to code the start date to be variable and not hard-coded to the 15th of Feb. Good luck, it can be done.

Richard
38 Mike D
      ID: 20253112
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:23
Thanks Richard for this additional info.
39Fivalive
      ID: 18142148
      Mon, Feb 14, 10:39
Richard-- Once again-- YOU DA'MAN. I've got everything else automated w/ macro's & buttons(even made some changes to adapt optimizer for other sports) this brings me one step closer to getting more than 3 hrs of sleep a night...
40J
      ID: 2908318
      Mon, Feb 14, 11:02
thanks alot Mike D. Things aren't looking so good, most of my team isn't up there!!!!!
41Fivalive
      ID: 18142148
      Mon, Feb 14, 11:48
Richard-- time for me to pay you back a little--

try this-- instead of putting actual date in URL (like 02-17) puit in letters "MM-DD"-- this looks like it defaults to next day (I just tried it and got stats for period starting 2/15)

here is actual url I used (15 day proj stats)

http://rotoguru1.com/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/rotoguru/hstats.cgi?04s0241011++++003000000015MM-DD1

hope this helps... will still need to automate to get trading periods starting farther into the future but this way you're not stuck with the 2/15 for the rest of the season...
42Richard
      ID: 36024318
      Mon, Feb 14, 11:54
Thanks for the payback, Fivalive. I'll give it a try.

Richard
43Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Feb 14, 12:36
You guys are good codebreakers. I think everything that's been said so far is accurate.

Every item in that input string identifies a sort order, or an input/output selection. If you figure out what report you want to import, you can see the input string by looking at at the URL of the sorted column heading. MM-DD should default to the next date that you can trade for, so it will be 2-15 until noon EST tomorrow, when it will move ahead one day.
44Skydancers
      ID: 81431419
      Mon, Feb 14, 20:04
Mike D:

How about $75M? thanks for the help. I still don't quite know how to use the optimizer.

45 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Mon, Feb 14, 21:54
Skydancers, it can be run with any budget. Is yours exactly 75 mill? I'll run it at that, if you like, or at your exact budget.
46Skydancers
      ID: 81431419
      Mon, Feb 14, 22:43
Yeah Mike... That's pretty much my budget. Please run it for me. thanx

47 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Mon, Feb 14, 22:49
Here is the 10 day projected starting 2/15----at 75 million:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 310.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 262.0
G LAL Bryant, Kobe 9,290 245.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 240.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 235.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 204.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 203.0
F LAC Odom, Lamar 5,530 201.0
G LAC Anderson, Derek 4,530 195.0
G Ind Rose, Jalen 5,260 195.0
74,320 2290.0

And here is the 17 day projected:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 517.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 440.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 437.0
F Tor Carter, Vince 9,790 419.0
G LAL Bryant, Kobe 9,290 408.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 391.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 374.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 305.0
G NYK Ward, Charlie 4,100 302.0
G Mia Lenard, Voshon 1,680 234.0
74,570 3827.0
48ebomb7
      ID: 51111214
      Mon, Feb 14, 23:14
you think it would be possible to run one of these with a 100 million roster? would be greatly appreciated.. thanks
49Ender
      ID: 50312820
      Mon, Feb 14, 23:19
Please don't run the $100 million rosterm it would be too humbling for owners like myself lol, j/k

I was feeling pretty good about things looking at the 75 mill roster, I need to be brought down to Earth :)
50 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Mon, Feb 14, 23:24
Sure. Here you go----the 10 day'er, starting 2/15, at gasp----a cool 100 mill.:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 310.0
F Min Garnett, Kevin 13,690 292.0
F Sac Webber, Chris 12,590 270.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 262.0
F SAS Duncan, Tim 12,090 257.0
G LAL Bryant, Kobe 9,290 245.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 240.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 235.0
G Was Strickland, Rod 8,220 235.0
G LAC Anderson, Derek 4,530 195.0
99,970 2541.0


And for 17 days:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 517.0
F Min Garnett, Kevin 13,690 486.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 440.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 437.0
F Tor Carter, Vince 9,790 419.0
G LAL Bryant, Kobe 9,290 408.0
G NJN Marbury, Stephon 9,670 392.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 391.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 374.0
G Was Strickland, Rod 8,220 353.0
95,720 4217.0

Only 95.7 used? Hmmmm.

51Tones
      ID: 21149918
      Tue, Feb 15, 00:17
can you please run a roster for us newcomers around 61 or 62 million. Please no laughing at this terrible roster value
52 Mike D
      ID: 19116116
      Tue, Feb 15, 06:29
Tones, here you go. At 10 days starting 2/15, and 62 mill:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 310.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 262.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 235.0
G Was Strickland, Rod 8,220 235.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 204.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 203.0
G LAC Anderson, Derek 4,530 195.0
F LAC Taylor, Maurice 4,450 179.0
C LAC Olowokandi, Michael 5,050 172.0
G LAC Murdock, Eric 640 138.0
61,810 2133.0


And 17 days:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 517.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 440.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 437.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 391.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 374.0
G Phi Snow, Eric 5,170 313.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 305.0
G NYK Ward, Charlie 4,100 302.0
G Mia Lenard, Voshon 1,680 234.0
F Ind Mckey, Derrick 630 205.0
61,290 3518.0

Hope this helps you.
53Fivalive
      ID: 20157158
      Tue, Feb 15, 10:24
Can you run it for 80 million, Jamison, and no trades until Thursday???
54 Nittany_lion
      ID: 561341510
      Tue, Feb 15, 10:35
Where is this "Guru - optimizer program"??? I can't seem to find it.
55The Judge
      ID: 380423110
      Tue, Feb 15, 11:07
It is located within the following thread:

http://rotoguru1.com/cgi-bin/mb/hoop/113.shtml?950567936
56 Mike D
      ID: 19116116
      Tue, Feb 15, 13:54
Tones, here you go. At 10 days starting 2/15, and 62 mill:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 310.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 262.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 235.0
G Was Strickland, Rod 8,220 235.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 204.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 203.0
G LAC Anderson, Derek 4,530 195.0
F LAC Taylor, Maurice 4,450 179.0
C LAC Olowokandi, Michael 5,050 172.0
G LAC Murdock, Eric 640 138.0
61,810 2133.0


And 17 days:

C LAL O'Neal, Shaquille 13,790 517.0
C Mia Mourning, Alonzo 10,790 440.0
G Cha Jones, Eddie 8,600 437.0
F Cha Coleman, Derrick 6,380 391.0
F Mia Mashburn, Jamal 5,500 374.0
G Phi Snow, Eric 5,170 313.0
F GSW Marshall, Donyell 4,650 305.0
G NYK Ward, Charlie 4,100 302.0
G Mia Lenard, Voshon 1,680 234.0
F Ind Mckey, Derrick 630 205.0
61,290 3518.0

Hope this helps you.
57Ref
      ID: 81261214
      Tue, Feb 15, 17:39
I don't have excel at home.
Can anyone run this program starting on Friday 2/18, since that is when we get our new trades. 5 and 10 days would be the best. Thanks.
58Ref
      ID: 4409319
      Wed, Feb 16, 08:42
BUTT
59The Judge
      ID: 380423110
      Wed, Feb 16, 10:30
Ref: You might want to give them a $$$$ value. :)
60Ref
      ID: 4409319
      Wed, Feb 16, 12:50
OK, I was trying this on my work xl and cannot get the optimizer to leave the 1's in the collumn. Also, is there anyway we can add a collumn for number of games in a week to import. I rarely use spreadsheets and am a novice. If I can get this to work on a start to an end date--this would be a great tool--esp when you can make it keep certain players you can't trade out of. Great Work!
Judge--my roster value is really dying right now with Odom and Jam!! Current roster value is about 87 million and sinking.
61 Mike D
      ID: 19116116
      Wed, Feb 16, 13:01
Ref-----I can help you----but it may be easier if I e-mail a "working" spreadsheet sorted with projected points. You'll need update the data whenever you like, but it will be set up to your liking I think. Either post your e-mail here or e-mail me at my home e-mail noted here, and I'll see it tonight.
62Dev
      ID: 330352918
      Wed, Feb 16, 20:00
what is a good way for entering the data. When i cut and paste from the sortables it comes in with all columns messed up and it would take me so long to fix that the time period I did it for would be over. Can anyone help?
63 Mike D
      ID: 391381318
      Thu, Feb 17, 06:37
My favorite way was "borrowed" from Zeuna's post on 2/1. You still run the sortables and sort by whatever you choose. But, you then want to copy and paste into Notepad. This nicely lays out the text. Save it as a text/notepad file. Open it in Excel----as fixed width----. You then chop off unwanted columns and rows. Finally, copy and paste the data into the optimizer program. Once you do it a few times, the process is very quick. The first couple of times there is some thinking involved. Hope this helps.
64Fivalive
      ID: 50118178
      Thu, Feb 17, 08:29
I know excel 2K has its problems but opening Guru's pages isn't one of them-- just do a web query, pages come in fine. Inspired by Richard I made some macro's to clean up, sort, & copy into main optimizer page too. Lost some sleep but it's well worth it. Now if I could only set up optimizer to avoid players who will be hurt in next 2 weeks...
65David
      ID: 424281210
      Mon, Jan 29, 12:29
Mike D,

Can you run your Magic from Wednesday 01/31 start 14 games forward and 15 days historical.
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