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Subject: Strategy Comparisons
Posted by: MyLakers
- [32161623] Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 15:17
In another thread I had stated that I thought that the elite level players were not being real outspoken with strategy suggestions because of a couple of things. One being this is now a pay game and money is at stake and two that folks are wanting them to do all the work for them. Biliruben suggested I start a strat thread, outline what I try to do and see if any suggestions come, I will take up the challenge and give it a try. Please feel free to write in your own strats and to poke holes in mine.
At the beginning of the season I try to set my team up for at least two weeks and build trades. I have had varing degrees of success at this over the years. Next, I also endeavor to have 4 games each week at each position. When I have to choose I rotate stud positions and let the little fish go with the 3 game week. 2 game or less weeks are definate sells. Most times I will buy a player with the idea to keep them 2 or more weeks before trading them away. I have only used cheap centers this year and only trade them if they have a 2 game week. Most of my trades are used on Teusday night after the nights action is over. Early on I tried to concentrate on money but had little success in building any. My RV is only 58 million at this point and WWR is 800+/-. Any questions or suggestions?
myl |
| 1 | louky
Sustainer
ID: 527283021
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 15:42
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MyLakers, I am not an "elite player", but I'll give you my 2 cents worth. The 1st couple of years I played, I found myself burning alot of trades after refresh. This year I have gotten away fron the TSN week, and focused more on gaps in schedules. This has been my best season in terms of gaining cash, and I think that using the trades more sparingly and rotating out of guys a game early, has helped me build up the bucks. In other words, I used to look at my roster and dump the guys that had 3 or less games for the upcoming week. So if I had 3 guys with 3 or less, I would dump all three for the best options. This was great on Weds., for money, but the rest of the week was below average.
I guess the short version of the story, is that after reading your post, you're strategy reminded me of what I used to do, that left me in the same boat you're in now. Not enough money to be competetive. Tuesdays nights/Weds morning are not always the best time to burn trades... though it's very tempting.
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| 2 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 15:56
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Louky, how many days gap did you use as standard, and if I understand you would trade a player one game Before the game at the beginning of the gap. For instance, player A has games on Teus, Thurs, and Friday followed by a gap of Sat, Sun, Mon and the next game happenin on Teusday. You would sell player A on Thursday nite after the game?
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| 3 | louky
Sustainer
ID: 527283021
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 16:08
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MyLakers, nothing is set in stone. In the scenerio you described, I would probably hold the guy through his Friday game, and trade for a guy whose schedule picked up on Saturday. Now if the scenerio were a little different, say he played Tues, Weds, and Friday, I may come out of him after his Weds game for a guy with a better schedule starting Thursday.
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| 4 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 16:08
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"Trade week" has nothing to do with when I execute trades. I'm pretty sure that I've been no more likely to trade on a Tuesday or Wednesday than on any other day. As long as you keep a few trades in reserve for emergencies, you should seldom find yourself needing to wait until trades are refreshed to make your moves.
I always look at schedule outlooks when evaluating buys and sells, but I never look at total team games per week. I don't even know whether I usually have 40 games per week or not. Frankly, I don't think it's very relevant. You want to maximize points, not games. I think everyone understands that, but many seem to find it difficult to follow in practice.
What schedule period? Again, it depends. How many trades do I have available? What is the best time to sell, and what are the most likely buy opportunities at that point?
I continually have my entire trading plan mapped out about 2 weeks in advance. Of course, it always changes - but by looking ahead, I can make sure I retain sufficient trading capacity to make the most attractive moves.
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| 5 | joe suspect
Donor
ID: 441143311
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 16:17
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MyLakers, this is my first year playing any type of smallworld game. I have evolved into a strategy similar to yours --
Maybe this is too confusing to explain, but I'll give it a try....
1) I use a player's 15 day average and the number of games in the next 7 days to get a point-per-$ utility figure.
2) I have a minimum points to be earned per trade formula that is based on: a) the sum of my teams 15 day averages, b) the total number of player games remaining until the next trade refresh, c) the number of trades I have remaining, and d)the highest 15 day PPG for a player on my team (this is my minimum trade threshold).
3) Hold trades for any upcoming 2 game weeks.
4) Don't trade if I will lose a game in the current week, or if I can gain a game by waiting a day.
Using the above "rules", here's a typical scenario: It's Wednesday and I have 4 trades and need 70 points over the next 14 days. I start with the player with the lowest ppg/$ figure, run the sortables and see if there's a trade that should gain 70 points. I continue evaluating each player, in reverse ppg/$ order, until I find a trade that makes sense.
After the 1st trade, my threshold would increase to say 90 points over the next 14, and so on. If I make no further trades, on Thursday my threshold will drop to about 85. And so on...for each day.
By using a reverse utility order, I force myself to look for point opportunities for my studs, and tend to hold cheapies longer.
This has really helped me with trade conservation, roster value (about 62.5 mil) and since implementing this 6 weeks ago I have gone from the mid 1100's to a season best 594. Not outstanding, but I'm looking forward to trying this for a whole season. It might sound like a lot of work, but I spend no more than 30 minutes each morning to evaluate my 3 teams and make trades.
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| 6 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 16:26
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Thanks Guru, if you dont mind Im going to continue playing the dummy here, mainly because it fits. Perhaps I am not asking the right question as well. I can already see that I have been to dedicated to the Tuesday night trade.
How about "when to dump out of a stud" A good example is last night. Kobe and Reggie Miller have a fracas and Kobe drops today by 110k as folks figure he will get suspended before his next game. Easy example, what are other indicators that it is time to leave the stud or any player, besides bad sched and suspension. I hope the questions arent to stupid, I am trying to spark some conversation here AND learn.
myl
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| 7 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 16:31
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Joe, thanks, you were posting while I was responding. I gotta look at what you are describing. It sounds very good, now I need to see if I can figure out how to do what you are describing.
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| 8 | Dave R
Leader
ID: 147341310
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 16:40
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Agreed Guru, the trading week is not important, other than we get new trades. Learning to use the schedule that Guru provides is the most important thing to me.
For example, Andre Miller has a 4 game week this week ( 3 games left ) and then goes 3-4-4. Pretty nice stretch of games for a stud. But starting 3/9 he starts a 2 in 7 or 3/11 a 1 in 5, depending on how you want to look at it. I'm looking to unload him either date, probably 3/9 to avoid the early selloffs.
I find that that seems to be one of the best ways to generate money, you don't want to hold players thru the end of good schedules as the selloffs usually begin early.
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| 9 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 16:48
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Dave, does this mean you are going to forgoe Andre's 3/10 game in order to not take the dollar hit from early sellers?
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| 10 | Dave R
Leader
ID: 147341310
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 17:03
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Leaning that way at this point, a lot depends on the rest of your roster and the trades you have left. I woundn't forgoe his game and not get one in return. For example, before his fight, I had looked at GP to Kobe 3/13.
Then thought that Miller to Kobe 3/10 and GP back to Miller 3/13 made sense. One more trade, only one extra game, dunno if it makes sense but I bet from a $ standpoint it works.
Would have avoided potential Miller selloffs, grabbed some Kobe buys.
I could be wrong, But I'll bet Millers price start to decline 3/9.
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| 11 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 17:08
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thanks dave, I am probably doing the same thing.
Joe, If I understand you right, your rule number one would give Brent Barry a .043/$ today? (5.25M divided by 119.7)
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| 12 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 17:16
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MyLakers[9] - I'm not as concerned about a dollar hit at this time of the season. The bigger issue is the point hit. First I need to see whether there is a significantly better option during the 5 day period from 3/11-15, when Miller plays just once.
No one has 4-in-5 during that period, but several studs play three times, including Payton, Kidd, and Kobe. So one strong possibility is to swap on 3/11 from Miller into one of them. The choice depends on a number of factors, including price, matchups, schedule before and after that period, etc. If my choice happens to match up well vs. Andre's schedule in the preceding days, then I might make the move early. But I wouldn't do it solely to avoid the price hit.
In this case, if Kobe is the choice, I might make the swap on 3/10 (or even 3/9). Earlier in the year, I'd have probably moved on 3/9. Today, I might wait the extra day, just in case something unusual happens that day, which could cause a change in plans. Again, that depends on whether the potential value drop is going to matter in the short term. If I am at risk of being unable to afford Kobe by waiting a day, I'd do it earlier.
Now, would I swap from GP/Kidd/Kobe back into Andre after 3/15? That's a completely separate issue. Maybe yes, maybe no. But I would evaluate that based upon my roster position on 3/16, and not based on what I did 5 days earlier.
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| 13 | Slowhand
Leader
ID: 39156119
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 17:17
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I have Dre on all 3 of my teams the 2 main option s I am looking at are Pierce & Kobe (depending on suspensions)since they both also play on the 10th I will likely forgo Dre's game on the 10th feeling that I can get comparable pts from either of these players and avoid any early $ losses.
If the players played on the 11th or I was going to a cheaper/less productive I would definately hold for his game on the 10th and eat any possibe $ losses;I always chose points over $ in my trades.
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| 14 | PGunn
ID: 1027122
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 17:23
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Pierce is a forward in the game this year.
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| 15 | Slowhand
Leader
ID: 39156119
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 17:35
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Oops-Another rule is always remember what positions the players play :-)
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| 16 | blackjackis21
Donor
ID: 49149210
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:03
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Excellent thread - my .02 echo much of the above.
Games per week can be very misleading. I don't think I've looked at a player's "4-4-3.." schedule yet this year. I typically look 15-20 days out and see how many games each team plays over that period. I think looking at schedules over a longer period vs week-to-week is perhaps the most important piece of a successful strategy.
The sortables/sartables are an excellent place to get ideas.
When in doubt as to whether you should make a trade or not, save the trade! Try to use trades primarily for studs (coming from someone who, 3 days ago, traded Tsakalidis for Foyle). Sometimes it's tough, but sitting through a 1-in-5 from a 15-20 pt./gm. position is much less painful than not having the trade later to switch into a 4-in-5 from a 2-in-5 at a stud position. For studs, I figure if I can expect to gain at least 45 points/trade (usually based on 15-day avg.), whether for one trade or a swap out and back in, it's worth considering.
Also, luck can count for hundreds of points.
As for A. Miller in a few days, I'm still not sure what I'll be doing. I'd like to fit Kidd in somehow, but there's no smooth transition from Miller. Dave R. has obviously been better at managing money than I have, but I typically like to hold on to a player until the last day possible - there are just too many injuries that can happen causing a change in plans, even in one night. That said, I may move into Kidd early and give up an A.Miller game or two this time around if I convince myself that it will mean more points.
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| 17 | jedman
Sustainer
ID: 40746414
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:20
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I don't think I can add anything to what has already been said, so I'll just reiterate that you have to look ahead for a couple weeks when trading into a player for the most part to get the most games and to maximize your trades. There are certainly times when you can do a short term trade for a couple stud games and to do that you have to have some longer term holds on the rest of your team.
I also never have a set day to make my trades, it all depends on schedule, not what day of the week it is.
I use the Assimilator religiously to evaluate moves and their potential impact on my team's total performance, especially when evaluating a double trade and trying to decide between multiple players. Is Miller/Mason going to be better than Kidd/Murray for example when I look at the projections for 10 days. Guru's tools are unbelievable when trying to do that kind of thing.
And finally, there is an element of luck involved that you have no control over such as a minor injury, a funeral, an injury the day after you pick up a player. You absolutely must have a trade at all times and as blackjack said, when in doubt, do nothing. Seems like simplicity usually rules out over the complicated.
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| 18 | joe suspect
Donor
ID: 441143311
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:22
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MyLakers -- I have Barry @ 30.40 (39.9 * 4/5.25). This will give you pts/mil$. I think yours is $/pt which works the same -- I just prefer dealing with the larger #'s so that the players with the best utility have the higher number.
Guru has similar calcs included with the sortables.
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| 19 | Rangoon Goondog
ID: 481442510
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:29
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This entire year I've solely looked at the trading week and been moderately successful by it, despite being told repeatedly by former smallworld standout d/j-smooth that I'm doing it all wrong. Next year I'll definitely go about things differently, and focus overall schedule a little more.
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| 20 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:30
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This is my 3rd year playing, and the first time that I am in the top 100 this late in the season. By my nature, I like to differentiate and look for the hidden gems out there. This results in a lower roster value than most of the teams I am competing with. As of today, there are 8 players ahead of me who have less RV than me. While it is unrealistic to compete for the top prize with 5 or 6 million less than some of the top players, I do expect to be near the top among people in my 'tax bracket'.
I very rarely make a move with money as the deciding factor, if ever. I will use money as a factor, but will not make a trade that I wouldn't consider if money were not a factor. If someone is gaining rapidly, and I don't have him, I don't want him. If he was a must-have for my team, I would've had him before everyone jumped on him. I have not had supposed must-haves Tim Duncan and Andre Miller all year. I have had must-haves TMac, Webber, Kidd and Garnett for less than a week each. Then again, my WWR is not 1. But you can definitely compete without the high-rent players everybody else has.
I try to put off trades as long as possible, because with more time come clearer options. For example, I was planning on selling Marion for his 2 in 6 starting the 27th, but when the time came, I didn't particularly like the options. I held him for his game on the 28th. Again, nothing popped out as being a must move (Dirk's schedule isn't so hot, Webber's isn't either, can't afford TD). So again I held. I was planning on dropping him today, as he is off the next 2 days. But looking at the sortables projecting out from the 5th, he will once again be a top 4 forward option and the cheapest among them. So now I will just hold, and likely recoup (and more) any money losses in a matter of days, while saving a couple trades.
I typically try to find a couple players who are solid performers for their price, who aren't getting attention, to keep as long term holds. I noticed Ben Wallace a long time back, who was under-owned and producing well. I held him through at least 3 different occasions where I would have had to drop a more widely held player, due to weak schedules. He has been the highest scoring center over that time, and since he was relatively unowned I was able to save as many as 6 trades by just holding throughout. I have moved up over 300 spots since I first picked him up.
Unless you are KB8ers GM, I highly suggest you learn to use the sortable stats. I typically sort players by ppg/last 15 days, and project out for the next 2+ weeks. I look for players who are losing money or staying even but stick out as being highly sorted for their price. They will soon garner attention and will make you money, if there performance continues. I want to be ahead of the pack on these types of players.
Lastly, I tend to look for people who have decent schedules for 2 weeks or so, followed by a real good stretch where everyone will want them. By doing this, you can often find great 4 week holds that end up gaining lots of money by the end.
Hope some of this made sense, good luck.
:)
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| 21 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:31
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THanks a lot guys, Im starting to see a few new things. I am very glad Biliruben talked me into making this thread. I hope it is helping others as well.
myl
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| 22 | Dave R
Leader
ID: 147341310
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:32
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Guru, maybe I was a bit misleading, my purpose of trading Miller ( if I do at all ) was not from a money standpoint. I was just trying to reference the nuances of the schedule.
A trade of Miller to Kobe seems misleading, unless you go back to Miller 3/15 you only gain one game.
Blackjack, true there's no smooth transition from Miller into anyone, unfortunately, but for me an early sell of Miller coincides with a trade I have to make ( Dale Davis ). Of course I haven't decised what I'm doing yet. Maybe hold Miller and just trade Davis.
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| 23 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:39
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BTW - I think this thread refutes the idea that the competition of the pay game is causing the better players to stay away from advice and this forum in general. I count at least 8 different people with at least 1 team in the top 100 who have responded to this thread, including the current #1 player (blackjackis21). I think this thread shows that if there is good fantasy discussion to be had, the best WILL come here to participate and help out. This thread proves that. Unfortunately, these threads have been few and far between this season. Nice thread, MyLakers.
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| 24 | Mike D
Donor
ID: 23149247
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 18:40
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I'd do the latter, Dave R., given Miller's schedule in the following weeks. He really could stay the rest of the year.
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| 25 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 157582113
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 19:01
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The only time that I looked at the trading week schedule grid was during the first month of the season when I had Indiana and Seattle players. I haven't payed attention to it since.
I use little gaps 0-3, 1-5, 2-6 etc. to make my trades. I use my gut more than the sartibles, altough I do use them. My guy didn't work too well with TMac, but it has with Sheed. The tool that I use the most is the 4 week schedule.
I don't look for the "diamond in the rough" cheapie, generally. I'd much rather have the widely owned cheapies and have a trade in handy. I also like to have the "must have" studs, so I do my differentiation with the occasional stud and the mid-ranged players.
Also, try not to trade in patterns like I do. I'll get trigger finger happy and make 8 trades in 4 days, and then not touch my team for 2 weeks. I wish I knew how to even things out, but that never happens and I'll generally be sitting between 150-250 WWR.
Oh, and 2 more quick things...
1) Don't be greedy and try to make all of the stud swaps, they're bound to get hurt...and if you do go for too many of them, you'll find yourself in a never-ending downward cycle looking for trades to fix your team.
2) Please don't undervalue swapping cheapies. Just look at a longer range 3-4 weeks. They are there to be traded too. I have Wesley Person, and I just looked at a 28 day period starting on the 9th, here , and it turns out that swapping Person for a similarly priced player may not be the best option. (I don't like J-Rich), but if I did see something, then I'd definitely make the swap.
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| 26 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 157582113
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 19:03
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Although, *wink wink* Tim Haradway may become an option for me.
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| 27 | Tortfeasor
Donor
ID: 20383113
Sat, Mar 02, 2002, 22:35
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Smallwhirled,
I agree with the statement about undervaluing cheapie trades. I've held Jamaal Magloire for about a month now. He's starting about a week's stretch of poor schedule, so I was looking at trading him. Over the 3 week period, the sartibles show Cato outpointing him by 100 points. I don't like to trade cheapie centers, but that trade's probably worth it, especially when the hold period is long and he is bound to have a decent pts average, even if he underperforms some games. Other people apparently saw the same thing, judging from prices.
Dave R.-
I'm actually getting out of Dre Miller on the 7th to go to Baron Davis. Gets a 5 in 7 out of that slot. And remember (Dave R., this is not directed at you, but at everyone in general), you can always trade a player and then pick him back up from another slot a few days later if there is a gap in his good schedule. Nothing wrong with that, especially when you're dealing in studs.
I think another important thing to remember is that cheapies generally have to be held for a while to get their average. That is, they are more on-again off-again that studs, so predicting when they will have hot games and picking them up for those is difficult, if not impossible. On the other hand, studs tend to stay closer to their average during any given hold period. For example, look at Gasol's last five games compared with Duncan's:
Gasol 49, 13.5, 32.5, 44.5, 18.5. Average: 31.6
Duncan 48, 57, 46, 45.5, 37.5 Average: 46.8
All of Duncan's are within +/- 10 of that average, so that makes him a pretty good candidate for a short-term hold. Gasol, on the other hand, is about +/- 18 of his average on any given night. B/c you don't always know what you're going to get, it's safer to hold him for longer. Thus, better to switch studs.
I know that's nothing revolutionary, just thought I would throw it out there while we're discussing.
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| 28 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 00:02
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Geez, what a response. Thanks to all of you, this is a lot of fun. I think Kobe may have given us an opition to go to from Andre. With him most likely to be suspended for a while here soon it seems natural for me to try to go from Miller to Bryant on the night of the 10th for 3 Kobe games in 5 as opposed to 1 Andre. This seem wise you guys?
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| 29 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 00:14
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Not much left to say, but I'll contribute this:
Schedule is extremely important, but dependent on the player(s) in question. You don't want to burn trades trying to gain games from cheap forwards (or guards or forwards for that matter). Sure you may be able to burn 2 trades and gain 3 games, but is it worth it from a player who averages 20 TSNP/g? Better to hold through a lull and save the trades to swap 50 TSNP/g players.
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| 30 | Chris Eibling
ID: 51054300
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 00:26
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Ender
You could not have said it any better...I would like to add that I have though about saving trades so that I can try to maximize the Stud Forward spot with TD, Cwebb, and KG....but there schedules are not too good to try and rotate them, Seems most of the times they tend to be scheduled on the same days. And unlike some of the stud guards...Kidd, Payton, Kobe, Miller....the stud forwards are missing those 2 games back to back and then 1 day off then the same back to back for a 4 in 5 games stretch....or just any Back to backs and that makes it hard to maximize the stud forwards!
But thanks for posting what I need to always remind myself when I see these short term game pickups from guys like Goldan State players. Just not worth the trade!
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| 31 | DR Stars
ID: 451147150
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 00:33
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I agree with most thing said in here. One thing I'm working with right now, and it's giving me good results in the last month, is to project cheapies 3-4 weeks, and studs 17-21 days. Usually, you want your cheap players to be long term holds.
I also look at the games per week grid to find the very good schedules, and then look at the actual schedule to find spots where to buy those players (usually a few days before a 4-4-4).
Great thread BTW.
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| 33 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 01:52
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I would now like to interject a little current events into this discussion. I have a strategy mapped out for the next couple of weeks and would like to lay it out and then have you guys dissect it. I believe this follows what you are saying and this is to verify for me that I understand. So here goes. I just used my last two trades to move from Kobe to Kidd because of the fight so I have no trades at the moment. My RV is 58 million even. My team is as follows:
Kidd, Payton, Barry, A.Miller
Gasol, Duncan, Howard, P. Jones
Tskaldis, Magloire
Early on the 11th I will go from Miller to Rose and get two back to back games from Rose leaveing me with 3 trades. Early on the 13th I will dump Payton, Barry and Gasol in order to move to Kidd, A Miller and Cliff Robinson. I had just got 4 more trades thus leaving me with 4 spare after this little bit. I also plan on selling Duncan and perhaps Tskaldis early on the 17th (for I know not who yet) thus leaving me with 2 spare trades at least. This takes me thru 2 weeks from now, am I going the right direction?
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| 34 | jedman
Sustainer
ID: 40746414
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 02:10
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I don't like the trade into Rose, he has the back to back, but then he has a poor schedule, 3-3-2
I'd rather look at a Jason Terry who is just beginning a very good schedule or maybe Richard Hamilton.
Your other moves look ok to me after a quick glance.
If you do have surplus and are going to do a short term move, you could go TD>Webber>TD and get 2 guaranteed extra games on 3/17.
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| 35 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 02:15
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Thanks Jedman, I have Jalen Rose on the brain lately, dont know why, your suggestions are much better.
myl
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| 36 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 157582113
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 02:26
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Ender, if you're not going back to the same cheapie then why is it really two trades? It's not like you're going to get a cheapie for a 5 in 7 or something, aren't you going to get that cheapie for a hold that's close to a month? Don't you use your trades to eventually updrade your players anyways, so why not get a "better cheapie" for a trade.
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| 37 | Lutefisker
Sustainer
ID: 5925621
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 04:48
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I can't say that I am #1 at anything but I do have a fair record of being near the top. I was #42 in baseball last year, #236 in football the year before and am fighting to be in the top 100 in basketball with two of my teams this year. A couple of years ago during the shortened basketball season, I was ranked as high as #4 although I do not remember what I finished with.
Having said that, my strategy is as follows. At the beginning of the year, my goal is to find cheap players who are likely to go up in price. This is generally done by finding players who were injured last year but who look positioned to make a comeback, by finding out who are the replacement players for long term injuries and who are starters due to trades that have occurred since the pricing of players was done by TSN. I will invariably have money left over after I have cast my original team. I will than buy a coupla studs with that money, with the intention of trading them out in order to maximize the value of my trades on the big boys.
As the year progresses, I gradually go from being more concerned about money (although I am never concerned just about money - and this may show in a slightly below average money value) to being more concerned about points. As my value increases I slowly begin to trade out of my "value" players and into the more expensive "big point" players. I also continue to look for players who will benifit from injuries and/or trades.
My biggest weakness is still the tendency to trade to quickly rather than to save up some trades for emergencies. As I see it, there is a fine line, because I consider trades to be worth more at the beginning of the year than at the end, and as such, they are a deminishing value when held on to. The reason that I feel this way is because trades can be used to make money and additional money can be used all year long to hold on to more expensive players who, at least in theory, will make more points for you.
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| 38 | Chris Eibling
ID: 51054300
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 09:14
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Lutefisker
Nice! Thanks for your Post...it was very informative.
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| 39 | Chris Eibling
ID: 51054300
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 09:37
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Here is a perfect example of wasting trades: (I think)
I have TD and I noticed that March 13 to March 19th he only plays 2 games. So I looked at all the other teams and I found DET plays 5 during that same time. No other team plays 5 and a handful get you 4 games(WASH, SAC, NJ, MINN, LA, LAC, HOU, GS, DEN, DAL, CLE, BOS, ATL) I already plan on having CWebb so I would have to say going to KG would be the smart thing over going to a detroit player to get that extra game?? It is here that I get myself suckered into that extra game yet in all actuality I am really cheating myself out of points. As if KG will not get more points in 4 games vs Cliff Robinson?
PS Free game speaking here.
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| 40 | bd
ID: 58115813
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 09:56
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I know this was one of the questions they posed on the website, but you only get a few viewpoints from it. Do you give any weight to the opponents played or do you consider this will balance out (some good matchups /some poor matchups) if a hold is for more than a week or so?
I currently look only at number of games and typically do not even look at who the opponents are.
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| 41 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 10:20
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I lend some weight to opponents played, but only when comparing 2 roughly equal choices. For example:
I was preparing to make a 2 player swap of KG which included getting out of KG for Karl Malone to allow an upgrade to Ben Wallace. I had a few equivalent trade dates in mind and looked at the schedule. I compared past performances (which does not guarantee anything, but all other things being equal, sometimes it helps) and saw that KG had played well against the Lakers and Jazz whereas Malomne had been mortal in his games. I opted to hold KG and looking back on the ~77 and ~66 TSNP games that he gave me, I am happy. I ended up swapping a different slot to free up the money for Wallace. The verdict is still out on that move...
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| 42 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 10:24
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smallwhirled, in answer to your question, sometimes you HAVE to move a cheapie. The schedule gets THAT bad at times. However, I make sure I can hold that cheapie for 4 weeks before I move into him. The point I was really getting at is that is incredibly inefficient to trade between sub $1 mill players (or more to the point players who average less than 30 TSNP/g) just so you can have a 4 game trade week in that slot. Gaining even 3 games over an arbitrary stretch of time is wasteful. It IS 2 trades when you are talking a short term move because to determine efficiency you MUST compare the swap to having held the original player. I personally feel this is less important the longer than the requisite 2.5 weeks. If you hold a player for 2.5 weeks, then you are rotating at an optimal pace IMO.
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| 43 | Chris Eibling
ID: 51054300
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 10:38
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bd & Ender
I have had CWebb during three games where SAC has played the Jazz..and they have all been blowouts! He played 31, 34, and 32 minuets and had 24, 19, and 16 points respectivly. My point is if I see any more back to back games versus Utah..I would be reluctant to look elsewhere in the forward spot. Other than that I rarely look to statistical matchups!
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| 44 | Dave R
Leader
ID: 147341310
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 11:27
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MyLakers, great job in starting one of the best threads we've had in a while.
No teams are the same, so each move has to be evaluated based on your current situation.
Today I traded Billups to Barry, realizing that Barry might have to go soon, not exactly your "stud" trade, but I didn't feel like Billups could be held. Only 14 games over the next 31 days, yeh, he's relativley cheap, I know.
I might have painted myself into a corner as I now have 8 players I'd like to trade 3/13 at the latest, maybe I'll end up holding some.
My Rv is at the point where I can afford to take a $ hit so maybe I'll just hold Miller, or Barry, depending on what else need to be done. For his price Barry projects 7th among ALL guards over the next month, maybe I'll hold him.
Lots of ways to play this game, guess you need alot of luck.
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| 45 | jedman
Sustainer
ID: 40746414
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 11:36
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I think you have to have a long range plan as far as trades, realizing of course that an injury could alter that. But, if you don't look ahead, you end up painting yourself into a corner where you end up getting who you can afford instead of who you really want.
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| 46 | soggybottomboys
ID: 321152821
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 12:04
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Dave R....I just unloaded Billups too, after holding him for the past 9 weeks. I am in the same boat in having to trade several players by the 13th so I couldn't pick up Barry and instead went with Hamilton, who I can hold for at least 3+ weeks. Also holding Magliore despite the 3 days off starting tomorrow. He has been a great cheapie center for me. Great post. This is why I check the boards every day, for the chance that I can find worthwhile discussion and info. Good point, blackjackis, about luck being a factor in this game too. I'm not saying I think you have been lucky this year, but rather you have made very sound moves from day one and have had more luck than others in regards to injuries/dnp's and bad games. I think you are just trying to be humble about having a great season thus far and that is how most good sports are. Congrats. I have had 300+ pt days 3 of the past 5 days and I'm still 500 pts behind you.....grrrr
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| 47 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 157582113
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 12:06
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...and that's the difference with regard to an individual team. Take Dave R's team for example. I held Billups on my "b" team because I did not have the money for that type of upgrade. Maybe I will move him on the 6th or the 8th, but it is not a "must" move because there are no must moves. Who knows what I'll do, but I'm actually leaning towards Tim Hardaway from that slot in the future. It all depends on how many of the "3/13" players that I want to drop. I've got 4 trades on each team, so depending on when I do make the moves, I may need almost all of the 8 or 12, depending on when you make your moves, and BTW, I'm getting out of some earlier.
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| 48 | MyLakers
ID: 32161623
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 13:38
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(ref #33) I am going to Trade Andre to J. Terry on the 11th, then stay with the original thought of Payton,Barry, Gasol to Kobe, Andre, Cliff Rob.
I will PROBABLY go TD to Cwebb to TD starting on the 17th. All dates are pre-freeze trades.
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| 49 | soggybottomboys
ID: 321152821
Sun, Mar 03, 2002, 20:32
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LOL.....I didn't realize I would make my point about luck so soon. I mention that I pick up Hamilton and immediately get a DNP. I also mention holding Magliore for his 3 days off and he rewards me a single digit performance tonight.
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| 50 | VIDevilRays
Leader
ID: 211392615
Mon, Mar 04, 2002, 09:21
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Great thread. I think all I can add is that one should also take dollar allocation into consideration when determining which players you will trade into. One should get the most bang for the buck for the upcoming schedule.
I think an example would be if there is a cheap guard who will give you good production there is no need to have an expensive one. Ditto on expensive forwards if there is a cheap one. Similarly, if there is not a cheap player who will give you good production for the particular time frame you should not have him on your roster.
I guess what I am saying is that, particularly in this day and age of muted price swings, having the right, cheap player on your roster at the right time seems to be a necessity.
The successful players in this game seem to know which cheapies to have at the right time. Hope I have made myself clear.
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