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Subject: Sartible Projections
Posted by: PacerFan
- [1911161011] Tue, Dec 10, 2002, 12:28
Just found this site...it's awesome!
I have a question regarding what is apparently known here as the "sartibles":
If a person were to use the sartibles to project player performance, would it be best to use them based upon full-season, 30-day, 15-day or 7 day averages?
In my opinion, the full season average is probably the most fair but certainly the 30 day average gives one an opportunity to find out who's been the most consistent; the 15 day average may be the best of all and the 7 day average can really be screwed up with either a humongous number or a big fat -0-. I find it the least helpful.
Outside of picking up guys based upon their schedule, I really don't know which way to turn.
Your help and comments are really appreciated. Thanks. |
| 1 | Tortfeasor
Donor
ID: 55912113
Tue, Dec 10, 2002, 12:49
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Welcome.
I find 30 day to be the most useful, generally, because they figure in the players most recent trends while also taking into account the production you can expect over the long term. Players fall in and out of favor with coaches too, and I think the 30 day stats take account of that trend as well. It's just a personal preference. You may find another term to be more useful. As long as you are at least taking a look at them in some form, your team should benefit.
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| 2 | Gman15
Leader
ID: 41953189
Tue, Dec 10, 2002, 13:27
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I prefer the 15 day - seems like a good predictor of near-term future production. I generally don't project for more than 2 1/2 weeks, so the other options seem less accurate for predicting to me.
On occasion, if I'm looking to gain significant $ over a short term period, I use the 7 day stats.
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| 3 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Dec 10, 2002, 13:30
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I like to look at both 15 and 30, just to see whether any different names pop out. I occasionally look at 7 day averages for the same reason - to see whether any new names surface. Often, they are due to single-game anomalies, but sometimes they relate to a recent change in usage (e.g., Boozer in late November). While there are other ways to identify those guys, it never hurts to have them emerge from multiple sources.
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| 4 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 42121814
Tue, Dec 10, 2002, 13:32
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By the way, I can't tell from your post, but be sure to look at the filters at the bottom of the sartibles. Defintely makes projections easier to deal with.
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| 5 | culdeus
Donor
ID: 461027711
Tue, Dec 10, 2002, 13:52
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Who started calling them sartibles? It's been called that here for more than 4 years now and I never knew who coined that one.
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| 6 | Mark L
Leader
ID: 4444938
Tue, Dec 10, 2002, 13:55
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It was Dan, the Bengal Man, who first bestowed "sartibles" upon us.
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| 8 | PacerFan
ID: 4711581111
Wed, Dec 11, 2002, 13:08
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Thanks guys for your thoughts. I've decided to use the 15-day period as my barometer for future trades. I fully realize that past history does not guarantee the same future success for any player but I believe the performance of each players' past 15 days does indeed show a trend worth noting.
I'm new at this game but I'm trying to catch on how to best rate each player's projected performance AND their schedule disparities.
Any added thoughts will be appreciated as well.
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| 9 | Jupiter Hurricanes
ID: 469172522
Wed, Dec 11, 2002, 18:33
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Use 15 and the other column 7 day. It would be great if we could get the averages broken out home and away, and the future projections take into effect the home or away SWP average.
The delta with some players from home and away is amazing. The sartibles do not take this into affect.
Hard to do I am sure, but it would make the projection more accurate.
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| 10 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Dec 11, 2002, 21:00
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Using home/away splits would make the projections more refined. But that's not necessarily more accurate.
I'm not at all sure I'd trust a home/away differential calculated player-by-player. That would also be tough to calculate, given the way I have my data set up.
It might be feasible, however, to apply a constant differential for all players. For example, assume that everyone averages 2 TSNP/G higher at home, and 2 TSNP/G lower on the road. You could even set up the differential as a variable.
Hmmm.... Let me think about that.
Anyone else have thoughts on the value of this? Has anyone done any analysis on home/away differentials?
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| 11 | BBall Fan
ID: 481022112
Wed, Dec 11, 2002, 21:57
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url to this sartibles?
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| 12 | Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Wed, Dec 11, 2002, 22:04
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try the drop down menu
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| 13 | rockafellerskank
Sustainer
ID: 30831210
Wed, Dec 11, 2002, 22:05
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sartibles
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| 14 | BBall Fan
ID: 481022112
Wed, Dec 11, 2002, 22:08
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i c
thx
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| 15 | Bungers
Leader
ID: 389553115
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 09:28
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Guru, how 'bout making the home games appear in bold on the schedule outlook?
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| 16 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 10:27
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Bungers - interesting idea. I'll consider it.
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