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Subject: Home-Away TSNP Differentials
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 10:20
In a different thread, someone raised the possibility of refining the TSNP projections (in the sortable stats) to reflect home vs away performance differentials. My immediate reaction was that individual player home/away averages were probably subject to more random noise than truth, but that perhaps some sort of average differential applied to all players would be of interest.
I was intrigued enough to dig into the data. It is not a trivial exercise to do this, so I’m not offering to update this daily. But the results were interesting enough that I should probably update it again sometime next month. And I’m still thinking about whether it makes sense to allow for any sort of home-away differentials in the sortable stats projections. That depends both on the perceived usefulness as well as the programming issues.
First, a few highlights:- Most players do perform better at home. Approximately 70% of players enjoy a higher TSNP/G when playing at home than when playing on the road.
- For the top 200 players, the differential is approximately 9%. Their average for home games is 26.3 TSNP/G, while they average only 24.0 TSNP/G on the road.
- Curiously, the differential is not as great for studs. The top 20 players average 42.9 at home and 41.4 on the road, a difference of only 1.5 TSNP, or about 3.5%. However, 14 of the top 20 players still do better at home (70%), while 6 of them have better road averages.
Individual player averages are interesting, but subject to a lot of noise. For example, Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 37 TSNP/G at home, but 46 on the road. That differential is highly influenced by Tuesday night’s home game in which he got only 3.5 TSNP before leaving with an injury. If we throw that game out, his home average improves to 40.8, which, although almost 4 TSNP higher, is still well below his road average.
Some players have done much better at home. Garnett’s home average is 10 TSNP above his road average. Kobe and McGrady have almost an 8 point home advantage. Yet Kidd and Payton show almost no difference at all. Are these differentials really reflective of longer-term expectations, or do other factors cause much of the differentials – like injuries, illnesses, relative strength of opponents, matchups, random variation, and other factors unrelated to site? I don’t know. But I tend to think that my original gut feeling was accurate – that individual player differentials are highly suspect, and probably not good predictors of longer-term performance differences.
I'll post the data in a mooment.
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| 1 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 10:21
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If you would like to noodle with the data, I’ve put it in an excel spreadsheet: HATSNP.xls.
Here are some category breakouts, plus a list of the top 200 players, sorted by total TSNP/G:
Current season through 12/11/02Category Tot-avg H-Avg A-Avg Diff
Top 20 42.2 42.9 41.4 1.5 3.5%
Next 30 32.4 34.2 30.7 3.5 10.8%
Top 50 36.3 37.7 34.8 2.9 8.0%
Top 100 31.5 33.0 30.0 3.0 9.4%
Top 200 25.1 26.3 24.0 2.3 9.2%
All players 18.7 19.4 17.9 1.6 8.4%
Name Team Tot-avg H-Avg A-Avg Diff
Garnett, Kevin Min 53.2 59.0 49.1 9.9
Bryant, Kobe LAL 52.2 56.3 48.5 7.8
Mcgrady, Tracy Orl 45.1 49.3 42.0 7.3
Kidd, Jason NJN 45.1 45.3 44.9 0.4
Payton, Gary Sea 44.7 45.3 44.3 0.9
O'Neal, Shaquille LAL 44.3 45.9 42.3 3.6
Brand, Elton LAC 44.1 44.9 43.1 1.9
Duncan, Tim SAS 43.2 42.7 44.1 -1.4
Pierce, Paul Bos 42.7 41.4 44.8 -3.4
Webber, Chris Sac 42.3 41.4 43.1 -1.7
Nowitzki, Dirk Dal 41.9 37.1 46.2 -9.1
Francis, Steve Hou 41.2 41.8 40.6 1.1
Marion, Shawn Pho 39.5 43.6 34.1 9.5
Walker, Antoine Bos 39.3 41.1 36.3 4.8
Wallace, Ben Det 38.4 40.9 35.8 5.1
O'Neal, Jermaine Ind 38.1 35.7 40.4 -4.7
Iverson, Allen Phi 37.3 38.5 36.0 2.5
Davis, Baron Nor 36.9 41.9 29.4 12.4
Terry, Jason Atl 36.5 38.0 35.2 2.7
Arenas, Gilbert GSW 36.0 33.3 40.4 -7.2
Mashburn, Jamal Nor 35.9 34.6 37.5 -2.9
Abdur-rahim, ShareefAtl 34.7 34.0 35.4 -1.5
Marbury, Stephon Pho 34.4 35.7 32.4 3.3
Nash, Steve Dal 34.4 35.6 33.3 2.3
Robinson, Glenn Atl 34.4 41.1 28.2 12.9
Miller, Andre LAC 34.3 36.9 31.5 5.5
Cassell, Sam Mil 33.9 32.6 35.0 -2.4
Thomas, Kurt NYK 33.8 32.0 36.8 -4.7
Jamison, Antawn GSW 33.4 36.0 29.2 6.8
Hill, Grant Orl 33.2 38.4 28.5 9.9
Malone, Karl Uta 33.2 43.1 26.6 16.4
Christie, Doug Sac 33.0 38.1 29.4 8.7
Marshall, Donyell Chi 32.9 32.6 33.1 -0.6
Finley, Michael Dal 32.7 34.5 31.3 3.3
Jackson, Bobby Sac 32.7 37.1 29.0 8.1
Gasol, Pau Mem 32.6 36.7 28.0 8.7
Stackhouse, Jerry Was 32.5 32.5 32.5 0.0
Brown, P.J. Nor 31.8 33.0 30.4 2.6
Artest, Ron Ind 31.6 37.8 26.0 11.8
Williams, Alvin Tor 31.6 33.9 29.5 4.4
Snow, Eric Phi 31.5 31.6 31.4 0.2
Lewis, Rashard Sea 31.0 27.8 33.3 -5.6
Ilgauskas, Zydrunas Cle 30.9 34.2 28.2 6.0
Jefferson, Richard NJN 30.8 32.3 29.1 3.2
Allen, Ray Mil 30.6 31.6 29.6 2.1
Wallace, Rasheed Por 30.4 33.8 27.1 6.8
Tinsley, Jamaal Ind 30.1 27.3 32.8 -5.6
Barry, Brent Sea 30.0 33.8 27.3 6.6
Divac, Vlade Sac 29.4 27.4 31.3 -3.9
Olowokandi, Michael LAC 29.4 29.2 29.6 -0.4
Davis, Ricky Cle 29.2 31.2 27.4 3.8
Robinson, David SAS 28.9 30.4 26.7 3.7
Rose, Jalen Chi 28.8 29.3 28.5 0.8
Stockton, John Uta 28.6 29.4 28.0 1.4
Miller, Mike Orl 28.5 29.8 27.4 2.4
Van Horn, Keith Phi 28.5 30.5 26.6 3.8
Miller, Brad Ind 28.3 34.8 22.5 12.3
Grant, Brian Mia 28.3 31.0 25.9 5.1
Horry, Robert LAL 27.7 27.9 27.5 0.4
Sprewell, Latrell NYK 27.7 27.9 27.4 0.5
Kirilenko, Andrei Uta 27.6 30.7 24.9 5.8
Wagner, Dajuan Cle 27.5 29.3 25.3 4.1
Howard, Juwan Den 27.3 32.6 20.1 12.5
Hamilton, Richard Det 27.2 26.0 28.5 -2.6
Miles, Darius Cle 27.2 28.0 26.8 1.2
Dampier, Erick GSW 27.1 26.0 29.0 -3.0
Jordan, Michael Was 27.1 29.8 23.6 6.2
Harpring, Matt Uta 27.1 28.4 26.1 2.4
Bradley, Shawn Dal 27.0 27.2 26.8 0.3
Posey, James Den 26.8 26.4 27.3 -0.9
Murphy, Troy GSW 26.7 31.7 18.7 13.0
Richardson, Jason GSW 26.7 26.7 26.8 -0.1
Houston, Allan NYK 26.7 29.0 22.6 6.4
Jones, Eddie Mia 26.5 28.5 24.6 3.8
Mason, Desmond Sea 26.3 25.8 26.7 -0.9
Mckie, Aaron Phi 26.3 30.1 22.5 7.5
Kittles, Kerry NJN 26.2 26.4 26.0 0.4
Davis, Antonio Tor 26.2 29.8 23.0 6.8
Hill, Tyrone Cle 26.1 30.0 22.7 7.4
Mobley, Cuttino Hou 26.1 26.1 26.1 0.0
Anderson, Derek Por 26.0 25.7 26.5 -0.9
Carter, Vince Tor 25.9 30.9 22.6 8.3
Kukoc, Toni Mil 25.5 33.9 17.1 16.9
Williams, Jason Mem 25.1 29.0 20.8 8.1
Williams, Jay Chi 25.0 31.3 21.1 10.2
Redd, Michael Mil 24.9 21.5 28.0 -6.6
Gooden, Drew Mem 24.9 23.9 26.1 -2.1
Martin, Kenyon NJN 24.8 26.8 22.3 4.6
Mason, Anthony Mil 24.7 24.1 25.5 -1.4
Lenard, Voshon Tor 24.6 22.4 27.4 -5.1
Ratliff, Theo Atl 24.6 27.1 22.5 4.6
Battie, Tony Bos 24.5 26.5 21.4 5.0
Hardaway, Anfernee Pho 24.4 22.4 27.2 -4.8
Nesterovic, RadoslavMin 24.4 25.3 23.7 1.6
Van Exel, Nick Dal 24.3 24.4 24.3 0.1
Yao, Ming Hou 24.2 27.4 21.6 5.9
Fox, Rick LAL 24.1 24.9 23.3 1.7
Delk, Tony Bos 23.9 27.7 16.8 10.9
Hughes, Larry Was 23.9 24.9 22.6 2.3
Stojakovic, Predrag Sac 23.9 25.2 22.5 2.7
Magloire, Jamaal Nor 23.8 29.0 17.5 11.5
Peterson, Morris Tor 23.8 22.8 24.7 -1.9
Butler, Caron Mia 23.7 25.1 22.4 2.6
Stoudemire, Amare Pho 23.6 25.2 21.6 3.6
Eisley, Howard NYK 23.5 23.5 23.6 -0.2
Wells, Bonzi Por 23.5 22.3 24.7 -2.4
Szczerbiak, Wally Min 23.5 26.5 20.5 6.0
Parker, Tony SAS 23.3 24.5 21.6 2.9
Hudson, Troy Min 23.2 24.1 22.6 1.5
Robinson, Clifford Det 22.5 21.2 23.8 -2.7
Swift, Stromile Mem 22.3 24.4 20.2 4.3
Williams, Jerome Tor 22.1 25.7 17.5 8.2
Thomas, Kenny Hou 22.0 20.6 23.3 -2.7
Armstrong, Darrell Orl 21.9 23.8 20.5 3.2
Ward, Charlie NYK 21.8 19.7 24.4 -4.7
Clark, Keon Sac 21.8 22.0 21.7 0.3
Thomas, Tim Mil 21.8 23.1 20.6 2.4
Maggette, Corey LAC 21.7 21.4 22.0 -0.6
Smith, Joe Min 21.2 12.0 24.6 -12.6
Davis, Dale Por 21.1 20.3 22.0 -1.8
Mutombo, Dikembe NJN 21.1 20.2 22.1 -1.9
Walker, Samaki LAL 21.1 20.6 21.6 -1.1
Boykins, Earl GSW 21.0 18.2 38.0 -19.8
Najera, Eduardo Dal 20.7 22.0 19.6 2.4
Cato, Kelvin Hou 20.5 17.9 22.5 -4.6
Pippen, Scottie Por 20.5 20.9 20.1 0.8
Wesley, David Nor 20.4 20.4 20.5 0.0
Brown, Kwame Was 20.4 21.2 19.4 1.8
Radmanovic, VladimirSea 20.0 19.4 20.4 -0.9
Sabonis, Arvydas Por 20.0 18.4 21.8 -3.4
Griffin, Eddie Hou 19.8 27.5 12.8 14.7
Newble, Ira Atl 19.5 20.9 18.3 2.6
Hilario, Maybyner Den 19.2 19.2 19.2 0.0
Weatherspoon, ClarenNYK 19.1 18.9 19.4 -0.4
Allen, Malik Mia 19.0 17.9 20.2 -2.3
Jones, Jumaine Cle 19.0 17.8 20.0 -2.2
Battier, Shane Mem 18.9 17.1 20.9 -3.9
Gugliotta, Tom Pho 18.9 22.8 14.9 7.9
Williams, Shammond Bos 18.8 17.0 21.8 -4.8
Rogers, Rodney NJN 18.8 19.5 17.8 1.7
Harrington, Al Ind 18.7 19.9 17.6 2.2
Atkins, Chucky Det 18.4 20.0 16.9 3.1
Williams, Eric Bos 18.2 17.5 19.4 -2.0
Rose, Malik SAS 18.2 17.5 19.1 -1.5
MacCulloch, Todd Phi 18.2 16.7 19.6 -2.9
Fisher, Derek LAL 18.1 19.5 16.9 2.5
Foyle, Adonal GSW 18.1 19.3 16.1 3.2
Gill, Kendall Min 18.1 19.7 16.9 2.8
Kemp, Shawn Orl 18.0 20.2 16.2 4.0
Anderson, Shandon NYK 17.8 18.5 16.6 2.0
Jackson, Stephen SAS 17.8 21.1 13.1 8.0
Henderson, Alan Atl 17.6 19.8 15.7 4.1
Knight, Brevin Mem 17.6 19.4 16.3 3.1
Skinner, Brian Phi 17.6 21.0 14.1 7.0
Boozer, Carlos Cle 17.4 23.2 13.4 9.8
Garrity, Pat Orl 17.3 17.5 17.1 0.4
Piatkowski, Eric LAC 17.2 17.0 17.4 -0.4
Jackson, Jim Sac 17.2 13.7 20.7 -7.0
Whitney, Chris Den 17.2 18.5 15.6 2.9
Smith, Steve SAS 17.1 17.3 16.9 0.4
Miller, Reggie Ind 17.1 22.3 15.6 6.6
Drobnjak, Predrag Sea 16.5 17.6 15.7 1.9
Jackson, Mark Uta 16.4 17.6 15.5 2.0
Wright, Lorenzen Mem 16.3 16.5 16.1 0.4
Lafrentz, Raef Dal 16.3 13.9 18.2 -4.3
Buckner, Greg Phi 16.2 19.6 12.9 6.7
Gadzuric, Dan Mil 16.2 16.3 16.1 0.2
Harris, Lucious NJN 16.1 16.6 15.6 1.0
George, Devean LAL 16.0 16.6 15.6 1.0
Ostertag, Greg Uta 16.0 16.6 15.5 1.1
Turkoglu, Hidayet Sac 16.0 19.5 13.2 6.3
Chandler, Tyson Chi 15.9 14.3 16.9 -2.7
Strickland, Rod Min 15.8 9.8 19.9 -10.1
Williams, Walt Dal 15.7 13.9 17.0 -3.1
Padgett, Scott Uta 15.6 19.6 12.7 6.9
Williamson, Corliss Det 15.6 15.1 16.2 -1.1
Barry, Jon Det 15.6 17.8 13.3 4.5
Billups, Chauncey Det 15.5 17.8 13.6 4.1
Mercer, Ron Ind 15.5 15.1 15.9 -0.8
James, Mike Mia 15.5 14.6 16.2 -1.6
Ollie, Kevin Mil 15.5 20.0 11.4 8.6
Haywood, Brendan Was 15.5 16.1 14.6 1.6
Best, Travis Mia 15.3 18.0 13.4 4.6
Stepania, Vladimir Mia 15.3 13.7 16.5 -2.8
Stoudamire, Damon Por 15.3 14.3 16.2 -1.9
Jaric, Marko LAC 15.3 16.5 14.0 2.6
Blount, Mark Den 15.3 15.3 15.3 0.0
Coleman, Derrick Phi 15.3 18.4 13.0 5.4
Hunter, Lindsey Tor 15.1 15.8 14.4 1.4
Person, Wesley Mem 15.0 13.9 16.3 -2.4
Hassell, Trenton Chi 14.9 15.1 14.8 0.3
Patterson, Ruben Por 14.8 14.1 15.6 -1.5
Palacio, Milt Cle 14.8 14.0 15.4 -1.4
Watson, Earl Mem 14.7 15.8 13.5 2.3
Rice, Glen Hou 14.7 7.9 21.4 -13.6
Russell, Bryon Was 14.5 16.3 12.2 4.1
Mohammed, Nazr Atl 14.5 0.0 14.5 -14.5
Trent, Gary Min 14.5 18.8 11.2 7.6
Laettner, Christian Was 14.5 15.5 13.1 2.4
N'diaye, Mamadou Tor 14.4 27.8 7.8 20.0
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| 2 | Skip to My Lou
Donor
ID: 23942316
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 10:28
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This is great stuff, Guru. I have always wondered about this and, frankly, am a little surprised about the results. Now, how about the second night of a back-to-back on the road . . . ?
;)
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| 3 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 10:35
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I did some back-to-back analysis in 1999. This was my report: Back-to-Back Backsliding?.
The quick take is that back-to-back games did result in a slight decline in production, but not great. On average, a player in back-to-back games did about 0.6 TSNP/G less that his prior 30-day average would have predicted.
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| 4 | Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 10:36
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haha. Lou makes a funny comment and Guru responds by saying he wrote an article about that back in '99.
Rotoguru.com- the home for your fantasy needs, no matter how bizarre they are.
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| 5 | Addicted@work
ID: 34256417
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 10:38
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Thanks Guru,
I've seen somewhere (maybe Kafenatid ?) where
they've broken it down by day of the week.
Scarry thought, but might be usefull when you're at the end of a players schedule. If he does well on such a day, keep him. If he doesn't and the player you're thinking about picking up does,
dump him.
--Addicted--
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| 6 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 10:46
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So if I read Gurus article correctly it says I shouldn't have to dump Calbert Chaney, Vlade Divac, Kerry Kittles, Hakeem Olajuwon, Sam Cassell, and Jim Jackson going into back to backs but should be worried about Kevin Willis, Otis Thorpe, John Wallace, Steve Smith, and Joe Smith. Thanks Guru John Wallace---> Calbert Chaney today. :)
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| 7 | Jupiter Hurricanes
ID: 469172522
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 11:05
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The trend should be consistent from the players performance last year. Running it off last years actuals and this years actuals combined would eliminate alot of the noise since it a larger sample.
Thanks
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| 8 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 11:14
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I'll take a look at least year's number, just to see if there appears to be any similarity.
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| 9 | skinneej
Sustainer
ID: 231040319
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 12:34
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Interesting stuff, Guru. I've wondered about the home/away splits but never dug deep enough to come up with a good statistical model. My contention has been that the studs will perform nearly well whether home or away. Looking at last year's data should give a better idea whether individual player trends are more than just short term variation. The current trends do not bode well for Marion and Marbury holders this week since 3 of the 4 remaining games are on the road.
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| 10 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 12:48
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I just ran the analysis for the entire 2001-2002 regular season. A few similarities and differences jump out:- Last year, about 80% of all players did better at home.
- The production differential was fairly consistent across all categories of players, roughly 7-7.5%. This suggests that the reduced benefit in this year's studs may be noise.
- There does not seem to be a lot of similarity in the individual numbers from last year to this year. For example, last year Kidd was more than 9 TSNP better at home, while this year he shows almost no difference. Last year, Payton was actually better on the road. Nowitzki was 5 TSNP better at home. Kobe's home advantage was only 3 TSNP.
This further confirms my sense that there is a general home court benefit, but that players who exhibit an abnormal differential probably can attribute that to other factors.
I've updated the spreadsheet (linked above) to include the prior year numbers. Following is a short list of the same categories and the top 50 players:
2001-02 NBA Regular SeasonCategory Tot-avg H-Avg A-Avg Diff
Top 20 42.2 43.8 40.6 3.3 7.7%
Next 30 32.9 34.1 31.6 2.5 7.7%
Top 50 36.9 38.2 35.5 2.7 7.4%
Top 100 31.8 33.0 30.6 2.4 7.6%
Top 200 25.6 26.4 24.8 1.7 6.6%
All players 19.2 19.8 18.7 1.1 5.9%
Name Team Tot-avg H-Avg A-Avg Diff
Duncan, Tim SAS 50.6 49.0 52.2 -3.2
Garnett, Kevin Min 48.1 50.5 45.6 4.9
Webber, Chris Sac 47.6 46.4 48.9 -2.5
O'Neal, Shaquille LAL 44.6 48.3 41.1 7.2
Mcgrady, Tracy Orl 44.4 46.7 42.1 4.6
Kidd, Jason NJN 44.0 48.6 39.3 9.3
Payton, Gary Sea 43.9 42.9 44.9 -2.0
Miller, Andre Cle 43.0 45.8 40.2 5.7
Iverson, Allen Phi 42.7 44.5 40.8 3.7
Nowitzki, Dirk Dal 41.2 43.6 38.9 4.7
Brand, Elton LAC 41.0 41.5 40.6 0.9
Malone, Karl Uta 40.6 41.8 39.5 2.3
Pierce, Paul Bos 40.3 41.4 39.3 2.1
Walker, Antoine Bos 40.2 40.7 39.6 1.2
Bryant, Kobe LAL 40.0 41.6 38.5 3.1
Wallace, Ben Det 39.1 41.3 37.0 4.2
Davis, Baron Cha 38.8 42.1 35.5 6.7
Francis, Steve Hou 38.8 41.8 35.8 6.0
Marion, Shawn Pho 38.5 40.6 36.5 4.1
Abdur-rahim, ShareefAtl 37.7 38.1 37.3 0.7
O'Neal, Jermaine Ind 37.1 37.2 37.1 0.1
Carter, Vince Tor 36.5 40.8 32.5 8.3
Jordan, Michael Was 36.1 40.3 31.2 9.1
Cassell, Sam Mil 35.5 36.4 34.6 1.8
Gasol, Pau Mem 35.2 36.1 34.3 1.7
Wallace, Rasheed Por 34.8 35.6 34.1 1.6
Marbury, Stephon Pho 34.8 34.4 35.1 -0.7
Stockton, John Uta 34.7 36.8 32.6 4.2
Hill, Grant Orl 34.0 31.1 35.7 -4.6
Barry, Brent Sea 33.9 35.8 31.9 3.9
Terry, Jason Atl 33.4 36.2 30.2 6.0
Mashburn, Jamal Cha 33.3 36.5 30.3 6.2
Brandon, Terrell Min 33.1 37.4 29.8 7.6
Nash, Steve Dal 33.1 33.9 32.4 1.5
Allen, Ray Mil 33.0 33.0 33.1 -0.1
Robinson, Glenn Mil 32.3 34.9 29.1 5.8
Stackhouse, Jerry Det 32.2 33.4 31.1 2.4
Camby, Marcus NYK 31.8 34.1 29.3 4.8
Mutombo, Dikembe Phi 31.7 32.1 31.3 0.7
Rose, Jalen Chi 31.6 30.4 33.9 -3.5
Williams, Jason Mem 31.4 35.5 27.2 8.4
Finley, Michael Dal 31.3 33.3 29.3 3.9
Odom, Lamar LAC 31.0 33.4 28.4 5.0
Jones, Eddie Mia 31.0 30.5 31.5 -1.0
Van Exel, Nick dend 30.9 31.2 30.6 0.6
Davis, Antonio Tor 30.8 34.6 27.0 7.6
Stojakovic, Predrag Sac 30.7 30.1 31.5 -1.4
Divac, Vlade Sac 30.7 31.1 30.2 0.9
Mourning, Alonzo Mia 30.6 30.4 30.7 -0.3
Lafrentz, Raef dend 30.5 32.1 28.6 3.5
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| 11 | Jupiter Hurricanes
ID: 469172522
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 13:49
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Good stuff.
Lets see how it plays out with Mashburn, Kobe and TMAC as they start to hit the road.
I would think it is incorrect to compare last years sample with this years. Diiferent sample size. I would think that players year over year can be compared and a viable trend will show. Remember only 10 of the 42 games have been played.
I would think the more games in the sample, a more accurate trend can be established. I would go back a far as he was in the league
Thanks for taking the time.
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| 12 | Jupiter Hurricanes
ID: 469172522
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 16:11
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Differences by team from last year. Average Home verses away variation for all the teams players who played more than 40 games.
Kidd and Jefferson owners must be happy the Nets are at home. Mash owners must be fretting that hornets are on the road (I know different location)
Miami players played better on the road than at home. To many distraction down in S Beach
NJN 2.8
Cha 2.2
Was 2.1
Hou 2.0
Den 2.0
Atl 1.9
Orl 1.6
GSW 1.5
LAC 1.4
Uta 1.4
Pho 1.3
Mil 1.3
Ind 1.3
LAL 1.3
Bos 1.3
Tor 1.2
Min 1.1
Dal 1.1
Mem 1.0
Det 1.0
Sea 0.6
Sac 0.6
NYK 0.5
Sac 0.4
Chi 0.3
Phi 0.3
Por 0
Cle 0
Mia -0.3
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| 13 | Jupiter Hurricanes
ID: 469172522
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 16:26
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Bigest busts on the road. Based upon a sample of all players that played 40 or more games last year, and a SWP average greater than 30.
Kidd, Jason NJN 9.3
Jordan, Michael Was 9.1
Williams, Jason Mem 8.4
Carter, Vince Tor 8.3
Davis, Antonio Tor 7.6
O'Neal, S LAL 7.2
Davis, Baron Cha 6.7
Terry, Jason Atl 6.0
Francis, Steve Hou 6.0
Robinson, Glenn Mil 5.8
Biggest studs on the road. Negetive indicates the player averages more on the road than at home.
O'Neal, J Ind 0.1
Allen, Ray Mil -0.1
Mourning, Alnzo Mia -0.3
Marbury, Stepon Pho -0.7
Jones, E Mia -1.0
Stojakovic, ag Sac -1.4
Payton, Gary Sea -2.0
Webber, Chris Sac -2.5
Duncan, Tim SAS -3.2
Rose, Jalen Chi -3.5
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| 14 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 16:35
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The numbers for Jalen Rose last year are probably incorrect. I failed to adjust for the midseason trade. Ditto for Artest and whoever else was in that trade.
I did remember to compensate for LaFrentz, Van Exel, and J. Howard, however.
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| 15 | Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 21:22
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Hornets going on a 7 game road trip. Might be a good time to avoid Baron seeing that point differential. On the other hand Mash puts up more on the road...
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| 16 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 5310281417
Thu, Dec 12, 2002, 21:30
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Interesting stuff, Guru.
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| 17 | Jupiter Hurricanes
ID: 469172522
Fri, Dec 13, 2002, 08:26
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Duncan heads on the road when his schedule next week...Looks good.
The idea of color coding or bolding away or home games on the sartible is a great idea.
What about a filter? You already have the
If the playes play x games in x day. Can you add a x home games in x days?
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| 18 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Dec 13, 2002, 09:46
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Here's what I have done with the sartibles:
1. In the schedule outlook string, home games are now shown as bold numbers.
2. When doing projections, the column which shows the number of games now also shows the number of home games. For example, for the next 14 days, the Lakers have 7 games scheduled, including 3 at home. So, for Kobe Bryant, this column will show "7-3".
If you import the projection report into a spreadsheet, you may have to adjust your column parsing to properly extract this new G-H format.
I do not think a filter designed to include/exclude players based on home games is warranted. I'm also deferring a decision on whether to add any quantitative means of projecting points using a H/A differential. It seems to me that this might be better left as a subjective assessment, and that simply providing this extra info on the home game concentration of the upcoming schedule is sufficient.
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| 19 | KJHoops
ID: 2410411122
Fri, Dec 13, 2002, 10:26
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Guru, nice work as always!
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| 20 | Jupiter
ID: 251015521
Thu, Dec 19, 2002, 00:37
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Butt
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