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Subject: PROFL Update
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Jan 06, 2003, 16:39
Time to update y'all on my progress in the PROFL League.
Surprisingly, I've been able to hang onto a wide lead, even though Bobby Jackson has vaporized, Dajuan Wagner has returned to earth, and Eric Snow has been slumping, and Kurt Thomas and Christie have been erratic. Duncan has been pulling his #1 weight of late, Kirilenko has been strong, and I guess no one else has been making a move.
Here are the overall standings and the breakdowns in the various categories through games of 01/05/03 (columns headed "diff" show the net change for the last week):STANDINGS, OVERALL
RANK TEAM TOTAL DIF BEHIND 1 DH-Undisp Heavyweights 79.5 3.5 0.0 2 KS-Four Score 66.0 -4.0 13.5 2 AS-Fantasy Sports Network 66.0 0.0 13.5 4 MM-CBS SportsLine 62.5 -1.5 17.0 5 PG-WildCardSports 54.0 -2.0 25.5 6 AC-RotoWire 53.0 -3.0 26.5 7 JL-Sporting News 49.5 -5.5 30.0 8 SM-Logical Operators 45.0 2.0 34.5 9 KL-Fourplay Fury 40.0 2.0 39.5 10 TC-FantasyRef Freaks 39.5 3.5 40.0 11 DF-Four Horsemen 35.0 4.0 44.5 12 JG-Quad City Warriors 34.0 1.0 45.5
Breakdown TEAM FGP PTS DIF TEAM FTP PTS DIF JG-Quad City Warrio 46.8 12.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 78.8 12.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 45.5 11.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 78.6 11.0 1.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 45.1 10.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 78.1 10.0 -1.0 SM-Logical Operator 44.7 9.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 77.7 9.0 2.0 PG-WildCardSports 44.1 8.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 77.5 8.0 2.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 43.9 7.0 1.0 KS-Four Score 77.5 7.0 -1.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 43.8 6.0 4.0 PG-WildCardSports 76.5 6.0 -3.0 DF-Four Horsemen 43.7 5.0 2.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 75.8 5.0 1.0 KS-Four Score 43.7 4.0 -1.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 75.7 4.0 -1.0 AC-RotoWire 43.7 3.0 -1.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 75.6 3.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 43.7 2.0 -5.0 JL-Sporting News 74.0 2.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 43.3 1.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 72.2 1.0 0.0
TEAM 3PT PTS DIF TEAM TRB PTS DIF JL-Sporting News 346 11.5 0.5 AS-Fantasy Sports N 2622 12.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 346 11.5 -0.5 KS-Four Score 2434 11.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 328 10.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 2279 10.0 1.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 316 9.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 2270 9.0 -1.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 313 8.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 2237 8.0 0.0 KS-Four Score 295 7.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 2194 7.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 285 6.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 2129 6.0 1.0 PG-WildCardSports 248 5.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 2120 5.0 -1.0 SM-Logical Operator 230 4.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 2058 4.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 220 3.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 1982 3.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 168 2.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 1969 2.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 117 1.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 1719 1.0 0.0
TEAM AST PTS DIF TEAM ST PTS DIF MM-CBS SportsLine 1433 12.0 0.0 KS-Four Score 530 12.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 1324 11.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 485 11.0 1.0 PG-WildCardSports 1315 10.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 466 10.0 -1.0 KS-Four Score 1218 9.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 444 9.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 1127 8.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 433 8.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 1098 7.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 424 7.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 1093 6.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 414 6.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 1060 5.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 405 5.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 1042 4.0 1.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 354 4.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 1018 3.0 -1.0 SM-Logical Operator 352 3.0 1.0 DF-Four Horsemen 964 2.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 344 2.0 -1.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 871 1.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 320 1.0 0.0
TEAM BK PTS DIF TEAM PTS PTS DIF DH-Undisp Heavyweig 336 12.0 1.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 6542 12.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 335 11.0 -1.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 5836 11.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 309 10.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 5530 10.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 299 9.0 1.0 SM-Logical Operator 5417 9.0 1.0 KS-Four Score 298 8.0 -1.0 KS-Four Score 5388 8.0 -1.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 273 6.5 -0.5 KL-Fourplay Fury 5351 7.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 273 6.5 0.5 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 5334 6.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 267 5.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 5179 5.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 265 4.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 4849 4.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 244 3.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 4594 3.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 225 2.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 4335 2.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 140 1.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 4210 1.0 0.0
I'll post updated rosters shortly. There was also a trade made today that has me a bit puzzled, and I'll show it as well. Stay tuned though... my daughter just called, so I have to go pick her up now. |
1 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Jan 06, 2003, 17:09
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Here are the current rosters. My roster is pretty much the same as drafted. I've dropped Gugliotta and Chucky Atkins, and added Dale Davis, Christian Laettner, and Kenny Thomas. Najera and Jackson are currently on IR.
Team | Guard | Forward | Center | TC-FantasyRef Freaks | Howard Eisley | Marcus Fizer | Jelani McCoy | | Mike Wilks | Gary Trent | Nene Hilario | | Ray Allen | Walter McCarty | Dikembe Mutombo | | Chris Whitney | Eric Williams | Theo Ratliff | | Brent Barry | Shawn Marion | | | Quentin Richardson | Latrell Sprewell | | | Alvin Williams | | | | Jason Williams | | | | | | | MM-CBS SportsLine | Mike James | Ricky Davis | Arvydas Sabonis | | Derek Anderson | Clarence Weatherspoon | Zydrunas Ilgauskas | | Casey Jacobsen | Troy Murphy | David Robinson | | David Wesley | Glenn Robinson | | | Steve Francis | Tim Thomas | | | Stephon Marbury | Chris Webber | | | Tony Parker | | | | | | | AC-RotoWire | Kobe Bryant | Derrick Coleman | Greg Ostertag | | Cuttino Mobley | Eddie Griffin | Eddy Curry | | Steve Nash | Morris Peterson | Brad Miller | | Derek Fisher | Malik Rose | | | Charlie Ward | Ben Wallace | | | Lucious Harris | Malik Allen | | | | Pat Garrity | | | | | | JG-Quad City Warriors | Shane Battier | Amare Stoudemire | Vladimir Stepania | | Vince Carter | Keith Van Horn | Raef LaFrentz | | Michael Jordan | Antoine Walker | Shaquille O'Neal | | Travis Best | Jumaine Jones | Nazr Mohammed | | Kendall Gill | Rick Fox | Tony Battie | | John Stockton | | | | Smush Parker | | | | | | | JL-Sporting News | Joe Johnson | Zach Randolph | Marcus Camby | | Michael Redd | P.J. Brown | Jamaal Magloire | | Michael Finley | Antonio Davis | Clifford Robinson | | Gordan Giricek | Richard Jefferson | | | Troy Hudson | Rashard Lewis | | | Rod Strickland | Rodney White | | | Andre Miller | Jerome Williams | | | | | | SM-Logical Operators | Allan Houston | Shareef Abdur-Rahim | Rasho Nesterovic | | Kerry Kittles | Pat Burke | Lorenzen Wright | | Gary Payton | Al Harrington | Nate Huffman | | Jerry Stackhouse | Tayshaun Prince | | | Jay Williams | Rodney Rogers | | | | Vin Baker | | | | Caron Butler | | | | Antawn Jamison | | | | | | AS-Fantasy Sports Network | Mike Bibby | Pau Gasol | Dirk Nowitzki | | Larry Hughes | Tyrone Hill | Michael Olowokandi | | Jason Richardson | Jamal Mashburn | Erick Dampier | | Nick Van Exel | Anthony Mason | | | Shammond Williams | Jermaine O'Neal | | | Voshon Lenard | Matt Harpring | | | | Joe Smith | | | | Corliss Williamson | | | | | | DH-Undisp Heavyweights | Bobby Jackson | Tim Duncan | Adonal Foyle | | Dajuan Wagner | Andrei Kirilenko | Kurt Thomas | | Eric Snow | Mike Miller | Dale Davis | | Jason Terry | Vladimir Radmanovic | Keon Clark | | Chauncey Billups | Predrag Stojakovic | | | Doug Christie | Christian Laettner | | | | Kenny Thomas | | | | Eduardo Najera | | | | | | PG-WildCardSports | Brevin Knight | Glen Rice | Tyson Chandler | | Ron Mercer | Bo Outlaw | Brian Grant | | Anfernee Hardaway | Robert Horry | Elden Campbell | | Eddie Jones | Toni Kukoc | | | Jason Kidd | Grant Hill | | | Jamaal Tinsley | James Posey | | | Steve Smith | Elton Brand | | | Lindsey Hunter | | | | | | | DF-Four Horsemen | Michael Dickerson | Ira Newble | Vlade Divac | | Trenton Hassell | Maurice Taylor | Todd MacCulloch | | Sam Cassell | Kwame Brown | | | Allen Iverson | Juwan Howard | | | Courtney Alexander | Corey Maggette | | | Tracy McGrady | Donyell Marshall | | | Reggie Miller | Darius Miles | | | | | | KS-Four Score | Marko Jaric | Shawn Kemp | Brendan Haywood | | Bruce Bowen | Carlos Boozer | Shawn Bradley | | Gilbert Arenas | Ron Artest | Ming Yao | | Darrell Armstrong | Karl Malone | | | Tony Delk | Paul Pierce | | | Aaron McKie | Rasheed Wallace | | | Jon Barry | Bonzi Wells | | | | | | KL-Fourplay Fury | Stephen Jackson | Donnell Harvey | Predrag Drobnjak | | Chucky Atkins | Kevin Garnett | Mark Blount | | Baron Davis | Drew Gooden | Kelvin Cato | | Richard Hamilton | Kenyon Martin | Stromile Swift | | Desmond Mason | Lamar Odom | | | Wally Szczerbiak | Scottie Pippen | | | | Jalen Rose | | | | | |
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2 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Jan 06, 2003, 17:15
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Here is the trade announced today:
JL-Sporting News trades Antoine Walker
To JG-Quad City Warriors for P.J. Brown Marcus Camby
The rosters above already reflect this trade.
I haven't fully evaluated this in the context of the teams - both of which are in the bottom half (JG is the bottom team). On the surface, it looks like a stupid trade, doesn't it? Seems to be putting a lot of faith in the return of a viable Camby.
JL (Jason Langendorf - Sporting News) is currently ranked 7th, and is the one who gave up Antoine Walker in order to get PJ Brown and Camby. |
3 | Comeback Kid
ID: 23946239 Tue, Jan 07, 2003, 11:30
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That trade isn't that bad, PJ is #26 overall on the player rater and brings VERY solid shooting %s to the table. Looking at the standings by category I can see why he wanted to unload Antoine and I'm not sure he could have done any better for himself.
I'd want to shake up my roster too at 7th overall even if it means taking a gamble, and he actually could end up looking like a genius if Camby works out.
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4 | Comeback Kid
ID: 23946239 Tue, Jan 07, 2003, 11:47
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KS and AS both look like respectable first place challengers.
AS should improve in a few categories now that he has Bibby back, assists in particular seems to be his achilles heel.
KS should also be able to improve. He has a really stacked lineup! Yao, bradley, arenas and artest are all among the top sleeper picks of the year. Surprised that KS isn't better in blocked shots considering he has yao bradley and rasheed. My guess is he's hurt himself with poor decision making when it comes to setting his weekly lineup.
FG% looks like his big weakness but if Yao is cemented in his active lineup now and Pierce gets his fg% above 40% (which you have to figure he will), then he could see a significant improvement. He should also benefit from the improved play of Malone and Bonzi Wells.
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5 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Tue, Jan 07, 2003, 12:05
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PJ Brown is only ranked that high because he's played more games than average. Using per-game averages, the player rater ranks him only #53, while Walker is #14.
I suspect the trade might help me a little. JG was the only team ahead of me in FG% (he's got Shaq), and the addition of Antoine Walker may push him down a few notches. JL was my principal contender in 3PT, and this will push him out of the top spot in that category. On the other hand, this will push JL ahead of me in rebounds, where I have a very slim lead. So the net impact on me may be negligible. And there may be other dissimilar impacts on the other top teams.
I suspect JG's high team FG% was why he felt comfortable taking on Walker's below 40% FG shooting. And of course, Walker's sub-par FT% can't hurt him.
Camby is clearly the wild card, and perhaps Langendorf is willing to take that risk. With a #7 overall team rank, he might as well go for broke. If nothing else, he should get a big boost in FG%, as there is a real logjam of teams in his current vicinity.
But in a game which only allows weekly roster moves, having Camby is certainly a big risk, even when he is relatively healthy. You never know when you'll get an unexpected DNP.
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6 | PGunn
ID: 251028715 Tue, Jan 07, 2003, 12:12
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I was watching a Denver game on League Pass the other night and they were talking about Camby not even playing this year.
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7 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Jan 15, 2003, 12:02
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Wow. This morning I reached my high water mark of the season, with 86 ranking points! I've also got a full 20 point lead over the second place team. Here is the breakdown of the individual category rankings:
12 (top): 3 point, blocks 11: FG%, FT%, Assists, Steals 10: points 8: rebounds
As projected in the trade analysis above, I'm moving toward the top spot in FG%. That gap has narrowed from 1.3% to 0.5% in the past 9 days. So I could conceivably take over that top spot in another week or so.
But my rankings in points and rebounds are rather precarious, and my lead in blocked shots is only by a single block. So I don't expect to hold onto to such a lofty overall number for long.
In another week we'll reach the midpoint of the NBA season, so there is still plenty of time for troubles to mount. I haven't been injury free, but my worst injury problems have not been too bad - Stojakovic (who is now playing very well), Billups (ditto), Bobby Jackson (who graciously waited until after Bibby's return to break his hand), Radmanovic, and Najera (who was only a marginal bench player anyway).
My free agent pickups have all contributed nicely - Dale Davis, Laettner, and Kenny Thomas. I've used them as slot fillers when other guys have light schedules or injuries.
I've never had a season fit together so well, and I'm really due for a streak of bad luck. Tim Duncan - please stay away from ladders, black cats, and sidewalk cracks!
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8 | Species Sustainer
ID: 569221717 Wed, Jan 15, 2003, 12:08
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Keep up the great work, Guru! I wonder if these guys will ask you to write a column regarding your strategy. Too often people don't take the entire rating into account. Your dominance in the "lesser" or "unsexy" categories (i.e. FG/FT %, steals, blocks) while not totally punting the more high-profile categories (points, rebounds) has obviously been they key.
Keep the updates coming!
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9 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Feb 10, 2003, 08:12
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I continue to do well in the PROFL "experts" league. Here are the standings at the All Star break.STANDINGS, OVERALL
RANK TEAM TOTAL DIF BEHIND 1 DH-Undisp Heavyweights 86.0 -1.0 0.0 2 KS-Four Score 71.0 3.0 15.0 3 AS-Fantasy Sports Network 67.5 0.5 18.5 4 MM-CBS SportsLine 59.0 -2.0 27.0 5 AC-RotoWire 56.0 0.0 30.0 6 TC-FantasyRef Freaks 53.5 2.5 32.5 7 KL-Fourplay Fury 43.0 -2.0 43.0 8 PG-WildCardSports 39.0 0.0 47.0 8 SM-Logical Operators 39.0 -1.0 47.0 10 JL-Sporting News 37.0 -1.0 49.0 11 DF-Four Horsemen 36.5 0.5 49.5 11 JG-Quad City Warriors 36.5 0.5 49.5
Through games of 02/09/03 Breakdown
TEAM FGP PTS DIF TEAM FTP PTS DIF JG-Quad City Warrio 46.7 12.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 79.3 12.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 45.9 11.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 79.1 11.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 45.4 10.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 78.7 10.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 44.2 9.0 2.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 78.0 9.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 44.2 8.0 -1.0 KS-Four Score 77.7 8.0 0.0 KS-Four Score 44.1 7.0 1.0 DF-Four Horsemen 77.1 7.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 43.9 6.0 -2.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 76.7 6.0 1.0 DF-Four Horsemen 43.9 5.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 76.7 5.0 -1.0 AC-RotoWire 43.9 4.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 75.8 4.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 43.7 3.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 75.7 3.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 43.4 2.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 75.1 2.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 43.3 1.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 72.6 1.0 0.0
TEAM 3PT PTS DIF TEAM TRB PTS DIF TC-FantasyRef Freak 519 12.0 1.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 3845 12.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 514 11.0 -1.0 KS-Four Score 3480 11.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 501 10.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 3320 10.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 482 9.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 3303 9.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 468 8.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 3243 8.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 439 7.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 3221 7.0 0.0 KS-Four Score 433 6.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 3170 6.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 340 5.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 3152 5.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 334 4.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 3109 4.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 321 3.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 2976 3.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 261 2.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 2895 2.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 259 1.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 2602 1.0 0.0
TEAM AST PTS DIF TEAM ST PTS DIF MM-CBS SportsLine 2068 12.0 0.0 KS-Four Score 760 12.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 1974 11.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 689 11.0 0.0 KS-Four Score 1780 10.0 1.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 678 10.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 1779 9.0 -1.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 635 9.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 1666 8.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 619 8.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 1629 7.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 603 7.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 1612 6.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 585 6.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 1603 5.0 1.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 571 5.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 1592 4.0 -1.0 AC-RotoWire 540 4.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 1566 3.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 525 3.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 1487 2.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 515 1.5 0.5 JG-Quad City Warrio 1365 1.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 515 1.5 -0.5
TEAM BK PTS DIF TEAM PTS PTS DIF AS-Fantasy Sports N 497 12.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 9412 12.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 486 11.0 0.0 AS-Fantasy Sports N 8931 11.0 0.0 AC-RotoWire 460 10.0 0.0 DH-Undisp Heavyweig 8120 10.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 438 9.0 0.0 KS-Four Score 7987 9.0 1.0 KS-Four Score 407 8.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 7984 8.0 -1.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 379 6.5 -0.5 SM-Logical Operator 7934 7.0 0.0 DF-Four Horsemen 379 6.5 0.5 JL-Sporting News 7899 6.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 364 5.0 1.0 DF-Four Horsemen 7722 5.0 0.0 MM-CBS SportsLine 363 4.0 -1.0 AC-RotoWire 7160 4.0 0.0 KL-Fourplay Fury 337 3.0 0.0 TC-FantasyRef Freak 6792 3.0 0.0 JL-Sporting News 333 2.0 0.0 JG-Quad City Warrio 6685 2.0 0.0 SM-Logical Operator 205 1.0 0.0 PG-WildCardSports 6198 1.0 0.0
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10 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 19, 2003, 11:30
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I'm probably overdue for an update.
The statistical details haven't changed much - just aged. At this point, it would take a cataclysmic meltdown to blow it. (I probably shouldn't have said that, eh?)
I've been maintaing an overall point lead of about 13-17 points over the past several weeks. It is currently 16 points (85-69). The 2nd and 3rd place teams are in a very close scuffle for second, and I suspect they are more focused on each other than on me. I know I would be in their position.
My current ranking outlook (12 team league): FG% = 11 (stable) FT% = 11 (could get to 12 - very tight) 3pt = 10 (9-11 seems a safe bet) Reb = 11 (still some possible slippage here - many teams are bunched. Top team is out of reach) Assists = 11 (stable) Steals = 11 (worst case outlook is 9) Blocks = 12 (big cushion, too) Pts = 8 (some vulnerability here - projected range is 6-9)
Overall, I currently have 86 ranking points. In all likelihood, I should be able to stay at 80 or better even with a disappointing final 4 weeks. I've been tracking the trends for each stat for each team, and I just don't see any surprises lurking. I don't think the next teams can get above 75.
It's been a hoot!
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11 | Species Sustainer
ID: 569221717 Wed, Mar 19, 2003, 19:19
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.......if only the overall rankings for the year started with Basketball, we'd be on our way!
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