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Subject: RIHC - Overall draft recap
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:22
Now that the RIHC draft has finished, I'm inviting each of the participants to share any overall reactions that they have. For example (but not limited to),
- Did it go as expected?
- What surprised you?
- How did your approach change as things unfolded?
- If you had to do it over, what would you do differentlyOther suggested comments frolm lionprideguy:
1) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
2) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
3) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
4) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Feel free to also comment on any particular picks - yours or others' - that you thought were noteworthy.
Outsiders who were not participating in the draft are also welcome to share their general reactions. The discussion thread has gotten a bit unwieldy, so this is the best place to share your thoughts as well. |
| 1 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 49132614
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:24
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This has been extremely interesting, helpful and enlightening. I have been drafting concurrently, and often refer to the opinion's of the drafters here.
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| 2 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 17:14
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I'll apologize in advance for my verbosity. =-)
I am very, very happy with this draft and the corresponding trades. I started out with the strategy of "tanking" a category... because I feel that if you try to be strong in every stat, you end up being mediocre in every stat instead, because inevitably you end up taking a player because he addresses a team weakness, but not because of that player's general strengths. More a "I need a shot blocker" type pick than a "this guy is a good center" type pick. If you can drop from getting 6 points in one category to only getting 1 point in that category, while at the same time improving 1 point in every other category, you've come out ahead.
So I thought about it, and it seems people usually reach for Cs in fantasy hoops drafts... which is why I wanted a C early on who _wasn't_ a reach, and thus why I traded up to the #2 slot (Dirk at #2 is not a reach). From there I figured I'd focus on Gs and Fs all draft long, and pick up a scrub C at the end. Also, by picking a C early who's strength is NOT in blocks, I figured blocks would be the most logical stat to sacrifice.
So after Dirk and Peja, I needed a PG who would allow me to compete on assists, and that was Andre Miller. He's a decent all around player too, so I didn't feel this was a reach... but kinda does get to the point I mentioned above. I picked Andre because I needed a PG, I needed assists... but frankly there were other guys on the board I would have rather had. Still, I felt he was good enough that this was not a reach. So I now had a solid C, F, and G. Good start.
Then, as we moved into the middle rounds of the draft, it seemed there were many quality forwards who were dropping through to me each round, since people were picking Gs and Cs a bit early (IMHO). The reaching on Cs was anticipated. The reaching on Gs was not. So I just kept stocking up on Fs, and my next 4 picks went... Lewis, Butler, Van Horn, Randolph. By the way, I'm very excited about getting Randolph in round 7. I think this may prove to be the steal of the draft, or at the very least the steal of the draft for my team.
So by this point, there wasn't much left at G that excited me. Tinsley was the main guy I considered picking up so that I could compete in assists (needed a second assist man), but I'm just not convinced he's the right guy. I picked up another good "all-around" guard in round 8 with Szczerbiak... and realized at that point that I might have a better chance of competing in blocks (Camby and few others were still on the board) than I did in assists.
After taking Camby, I saw Battier was available, and he was just too good to pass up, even though the last thing I needed was another F. But I've said it before and I'll say it again... almost always take the best player available!!! Finding out that Battier was G eligible was the turning point in my draft, as I finally realized "OK, I have good Gs who's strengths are not in assists, and I've got all these good Fs giving me boards and percentages and 3s, etc... so it's time to sacrifice the assists category instead of the blocks category." I also looked at the remaining available players and decided that I would (a) have an easier time finding players who block than players who dish, and (b) that those same guys would also give me boards and FG%, whereas the Gs might only give me steals in addition... so it seemed I was more likely to succeed on this new tack. Thus I began trying to deal Andre Miller.
Now, I wasn't 100% set on this, and wasn't going to give Andre away, because it's always possible to trade or pick up a free agent who emerges at the point guard position to provide more assists, etc... and having Andre on my squad would at least "keep me in the running" until I found that second assist man. But, as noted above, if I could find a good deal and tank assists and strengthen other areas, it seemed like a good choice. So when Raef fell into my lap as trade bait (I already had 3 Cs and another in queue...), I was finally able to move Andre Miller for Vince Carter, who offers a significant fantasy improvement for my squad in just about every respect except for losing assists (which I don't care about anyway)... and they are about neutral to each other in steals and FT%. That leaves me with bumps up in points, boards, 3s, blocks, and FG%... SWEET! Now, as noted, I _did_ have to give away Raef in order to do this, and he could have contributed on my squad... but I had so much strength at the F and C positions already that I think it was WELL worth it for the improvement at G... especially as this trade also yielded me Reggie Miller as my 4th G and he's also not an assist man, and I definitely needed more options at G (even aging, semi-injured ones).
So, in the end, I think my strategy worked suprisingly well (sacrificing one category at the expense of others)... but the big thing is that it just wasn't the category I was expecting to sacrifice! But in retrospect, this makes a lot of sense... because there are few point guards who aren't relatively one-dimensional compared to other Gs, and to compete in assists you really need 2 PGs I think, and thus by neglecting them outright you are able to free up those positions to add to your strength in so many other areas.
In the end, I have the projected average of my starting 12 to be:
16.9 points, 6.8 boards, 2.2 assists, 1.05 3PM, 1.2 steals, 0.9 blocks, 82% FT, and 47% FG
NOTE: Many Roto leagues ALSO include TOs as a statistic, where fewer is better. As I calculate it, this strategy would have made me the league leader in fewest TOs, since PGs tend to have the most TOs, and I don't have any of them on my squad. Thus, for a 9-category Roto league, this strategy could be even BETTER to consider than how it worked out for me... although maybe people wouldn't have been so guard-heavy so early if it had been a league that included TOs. Basically, much of it depends on your draft position and who falls through though to you each round and how other managers are drafting.
In the end, I think you should always start your draft with a strategy in mind, but be flexible with it depending on how things are shaping up (keep track of projected stats for all teams as the draft progresses, preferably taking each teams remaining positional needs into account). Also, rather than overreaching to fill a need, take the best player available (within reason) and trust that you manage effectively to fill that need... either via a later pick in the draft, or via trade, or via FAs, etc. In a fast-live draft, it's usually too fast and furious to do any real analysis, so instead I would just say have a master list of players, and try to generally pick one of the top few guys left on your list rather than picking a guy 10, 20, or more spots down because he "fills a need". It's important to have all your players on one list too, so you can evaluate between positions... i.e., do you prefer the 30th best guard over the 40th best forward, or vice versa? It's hard to tell the answer to this question quickly if you have separate lists for each position. I usually make my list in Excel, and then color-code it so I can quickly pick out a players by position if I need/want to (centers have a blue background, guards have a red background, etc.)
I can't wait to see how this season shakes out... less than a week to go... as you may be able to tell, I'm psyched for it!!!
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| 3 | chuckball
Donor
ID: 288432617
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 19:46
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Doug,
Your strategy is one that worked quite well for me a few years ago, in a roto-league that I played in. My team consisted of almost exclusively swing players and no point guards.
Giving up the assist category usually means winning the fewest TO category as well since your players never pass the rock they have little chance to turn it over.
It's always fun to have the all black hole team as well, when you're guys are not passing, they are usually only thinking about one thing padding those stats by Chucking that ball in the hoop.
It was one of my favorite fantasy teams over the years...
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| 4 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 19:47
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Interesting approach, Doug. Frankly, I never enter a draft with an intent to tank a category. Sometimes, that works out to be the best approach, but I usually wait until a month or so has gone by before deciding whether a weak category can be repaired or should be sacrificed. This can depend on many things, not the least of which is the relative balance in the league itself.
I've had some past success when conceding points scored. It often seems that the top scorers have a tendency to be weak in many of the other categories. At this point, I'm not ready to do that, but it is one category where I think I'm vulnerable.
My general reaction is that this was a much more competitive draft than any I've been in before. Just about every time I decided to wait for a round or two for a "sleeper" to slide through, I missed out. I've participated in "expert" leagues in each of the past two seasons, and in both of those I felt like I was getting much better relative value out of the picks in the second half of the draft.
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| 5 | lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 906204
Fri, Oct 24, 2003, 03:25
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Thanks for the insights Doug!
I didn't enter the draft with any specific strategy for one category vs. another. I figured that a lot of that would materialize after the first few rounds by taking the best players available and then seeing how they started to fit together. Usually in fantasy ball I de-emphasize scorers and rely on strong-rebounding forwards instead, so it's a little strange to me to be in a different situation with this team. They say that you're always a bit biased to like players and tend to draft teams that resemble the way you play, though, so a quick glance at my team probably makes it obvious I was a guard myself.
The tone for the draft was set to me real early, within the first day. Sitting at #11, I figured there were 4-5 serious franchise players that could dominate this year, and another 5-6 that could be considered strong enough to build a franchise around, for a total of 10 studs to pick from. I was just outside this number, but usually there is at least one pick in the first round that is a bit unexpected, so I thought I'd just take the 10th player that was left over. As it turned out, all 10 were gone in order, and it reminded me right away that I was going to have to really be on top of things in the draft or else I was going to get beat up bad. I couldn't count on sleepers slipping through to be steals later on, and would have to draft a bit more carefully to make sure I didn't let anybody pass me by because they likely wouldn't survive to get back to me.
I continued to just draft who I thought was the best player available through at least the first 7 rounds to then see how the team was fitting together, and go with the strengths and weaknesses at that point. This is why I started going after bigger guys after this point to get some rebounds and blocks. This is also where I first started thinking about completely tanking the FG% category, as I had posted some thoughts about in the discussion thread at the time. I began to figure that I was in such a hole with Iverson, Walker, and Van Exel that even if I drafted nothing but great shooters from here on out, then I may not even be able to climb one spot in those rankings. However, if I just accept it as a lost stat, then I could still pick up players to make bigger moves in many other categories by taking the best of the players that other teams were avoiding because of bad FG% stats. This led to the drafting of Darius Miles, because if his FG% and turnovers don't matter, then there weren't as many ways he could hurt me.
The Antoine Walker trade late in the draft was a big blow to my team because I was so excited about his potential to have a bounce-back season in Boston with the shape he was in. As much as I can try to get excited about Don Nelson's claims that he wants Antoine to lead the NBA in triple-doubles, I can't fool myself far enough to really believe he will perform anywhere near as well.
I was fortunate that the players that I ended up drafted through the first 8-9 rounds gave me such flexibility that I never had to worry about drafting to fill a need at any slot. Of the first nine players, I already had two who could play center, 6 who could play guard, and 6 who could play center. So I had the freedom to continue drafting the players who I thought would have the best chances to contribute, no matter the position, for the rest of the draft without any constraints or worries about positions. I also drafted to take advantage of the fact that TO's didn't hurt my team, because I'd be afraid to see the totals from a squad of Iverson, Van Exel, Kwame, Walker, Crawford and Miles.
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| 6 | Edgar
Leader
ID: 458944
Fri, Oct 24, 2003, 08:45
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Ok here a general overview of the questions posed by LPG on the RIHC draft. These are just my answers and not necessarily represent the opinion of Swish City who, I am sure, probably has different thoughts on some of my answers.
1. Our best pick
Right now the pick that really stands out to me is Yao Ming at no. 21. He is bound to have a spectacular second season and go end up in the overall top 10 when healthy. His preseason has been very promosing so far. Other picks on our team that I like are Bobby Jackson, Emanuel Ginobili and Carmello Anthony.
2. Steals by other teams
Going through the list I could not see any clear steals on the info that is currently available to us. Sure later in the year we can all say we saw this coming but at this point I sure can't. Picks that I like, and could be steals are Lafrentz (ofcourse because of the trade), Malone; slipping to far according to my gut feeling at 62), Eric Snow; who seems to be undervalued at 56 and Baron Davis at 30, who is set for another allstar performance (when healthy). In the low rounds these things are very hard to predict.
3. Picks that I thought went to high.
Again very hard. I thought Eddy Curry at 39 is a bit soon based on just a nice second half of the season. And the Bulls have plenty of offensive weapons so I do not believe Curry, Chandler and Crawford will all break out. At least one of them will tank you would think. Caron Butler at 55 also seems early. Although surely talented with Odom and Eddie Jones on the floor it will be hard for Caron to make his mark. At this point I doubt if he will deserve his selection here. At 41 Guru picked Matt Harpring. Did not think he would go that early. But usually betting against Guru does not turn out to be very smart. Harpring is a decent player who will get his minutes and points but I feel the selection was a little high.
4. The team that you want to swap with.
At this point BJis21 is the team standing out to me. When I look at his team I like almost all of his picks. The only doubt surrounding his squad is Kobe Bryant. If Kobe will be focussed we will have a real, real hard time beating this squad. Picks I like on his team are, Christie, Malone, Brown and the late addition of Milicic, Hudson and Dunleavy. Also a nice balance between proven players and new talent.
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| 7 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 24, 2003, 12:21
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Our own best and worst pick, in retrospect.
I entered the draft with a ranked list of all players. I only managed to grab one player more than 10-12 picks behind where I ranked him. That was Bonzi Wells, who I took with pick #80. I had him ranked #58. There were a couple other who I picked about one round later than I had them ranked – Matt Harpring, ranked #30 and picked #41, and Eric Snow, ranked at #45 and picked at #56. I don’t think any of these three were steals, but I also don’t think I’m relying on overly optimistic projections for any of them.
Richard Jefferson might also turn out to be a good pick. I took him about where I had him ranked, but I do think this could be a breakout year for him.
My worst pick might turn out to be Damon Stoudamire. That also might turn out to be my best pick. If he ends up like last season, then he shouldn’t have even been drafted. If he can erase last year entirely, then he could be a good value. I have him ranked #90 (picked #113), but that assumes 30 minutes per game. My concern is that his upside may not be enough to outweigh his downside. At that point in the draft, someone like Shane Battier or Bobby Jackson might have been a better choice.
I’m also not enamored with Nesterovic. He might work out fine, but I think his downside is greater than his upside. At a minimum, it may take him awhile to find his Spurs.
The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Among the good steals were Raef LaFrentz (for obvious reasons), Derek Anderson (assuming he can still get the minutes), Stephen Jackson, Kerry Kittles, & Ron Artest (if he can behave). I thought a lot about nabbing Derek Anderson in round 11, but that would have been my 4th Trailblazer. Perhaps that would have been good insurance. Stephen Jackson went 3 picks before I’d have taken him.
I also like Marc Jackson in the 13th round. I must confess that he eluded my attention until he was picked. But that pick has potential. Of course, we’ve been saying that about him for several years now.
McDyess could also work out to be a steal in round 10.
2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Marcus Camby went sooner than I expected. There is no doubt that a healthy Camby is worth better than a 9th round pick. But is there such a thing as a healthy Camby?
Joe Johnson is another pick that I think was too early. I think LeBron could also end up being worth less than his #48 pick. He’ll certainly put up some big games. But I suspect there will be a fair number of stinkers averaged in.
If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Based on my numbers, I like Swish & Edgar’s team. They seem to have a good balance across all categories. If Amare Stoudemire can learn to shoot FTs, they could be very strong.
Doug has some good potential, and could possibly have some excess in the shooting percentage cats to use as trade fodder (I have him ranked #1 in both). Lionprideguy has an interesting mix, lousy in both percentage categories, but pretty strong elsewhere. I don’t know if it’s possible to vie for the top spot with 2 categories sacrificed, but maybe he’ll have some excess value that he can trade into some better shooting.
Frankly, I think every team still has a shot at this. And injuries can always wreak havoc with any team.
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| 8 | Swish City
Leader
ID: 39252113
Fri, Oct 24, 2003, 17:08
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I'm gonna attack this from 2 sides - firstly, the points that lpg raised. I'm then planning to write a Doug-esque critique over our draft. What i will say before i start is that i am actually very glad to have drafted with Edgar - to have a second pair of eyes overseeing your decisions and pointing out your biases as you go, has in my eyes, been a great advantage for our draft. On more than one occasion, we have hauled each in from picking guys that weren't the right fit, and we have had some very heated discussions that have ended up benefitting us. I'll talk more about this is the general draft recap, but just wanted to make the initial point that i have found drafting as part of a duo an extremely worthwhile and beneficial experience, due in no small part to Edgar's preparation, research and opinions. Way to go, partner :)
Best and Worst Pick
Overall, i'm thrilled with our selections, but am partlicularly excited about Gino. I do not think he was by any means a steal in round 8, but he was one of the guys we targetted to get. To get a guy who could be right near the summit of steals and 3s at the end of the year in Round 8 makes me feel very warm inside. Also real happy to get Bobby J in Round 10, and believe that Bosh has a huge amount of potential in Round 11. Getting Pip in Round 13 (was everyone so scared about him being hurt all year that they forgot about him? Would be interested to hear views on this) was the icing on the cake.
There's not really anyone i'm totally 'oh no' about. What i do feel (and i've said this to Edgar already) is that JWill and Amare really have to play to the level we drafted them at to have a chance with this thing. As Guru already pointed out, we've isolated that Amare's FT% could be a big key for us. Equally, JWill's FG% could also be crucial - if only he could somehow shoot 43-44% instead of 39%....
Steals of the draft
I don't know if steal is the right word considering where he was drafted, but Doug must be ecstatic to have Zach Randolph. He has shown signs of busting out majorly. Derek Anderson (i think everyone thought about him at some point) also represents oustanding value where he was drafted.
Lafrentz is quite obviously the steal of the draft (still cursing at Doug over that one), but i think in retrospect that McDyess in round 10 was about the right time to gamble on him. And, i'm gonna be sore on passing, then passing, then passing, and then MISSING Lamond (Round 14 - argghhhh!) for at least another 6 months ;)
Guys that went too high
Caron Butler - We had Butler pegged a round lower than where he got taken. Having said that, we all now know that to be certain of getting who you want in a draft like this, you need to draft early.
Dwayne Wade - Thought round 8 was at least 2 rounds too early for Wade. We had at least a dozen guys ranked higher then him. We took Gino next, and i find it tough to fathom that Wade will have a better season than him.
Joe Johnson - I personally think at least 2 rounds too high. I'll look SO stupid if he turns out to be a mini-Kobe.
Matt Harpring - but who am i to doubt the Guru?
Other Teams - who's the best?
Blckjack's roster looks absolutely rock solid to me. Of the 1st 7 rounds, i would say he has the most solid group, and he has additionally picked up some great sleepers in Radmanovic, Dunleavy and Keon. If they bust out too, we could all be in big trouble.
Dave R's team is also absolutely brimming with potential. Its going to be an exciting season for him. If that potential comes up for the likes of Chandler, Kiri, Dampier, Johnson and co, we've all got reasons to be pretty apprehensive.
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| 9 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 27652109
Sat, Oct 25, 2003, 13:11
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Some of what I put here has already been posted under my individual draft picks, but here are some other observations.
I started out with the idea that 64 points (avg of 8 per category) was going to be necessary to compete for 1st place. I think if you look at the "projected standings" that were posted by me, Guru and Doug bear that out [except for Doug giving himself a 77! ;) ] That being said, I didn't even consider tanking a category becase a "1" would need to be made up by 2 "11's"
The purpose of my projections was to identify round by round relative to the other owners what areas I was suffering in the most (IE blocks). I didn't let this dictate a pick for me until the later rounds (10+), but it was a guide. I tried to take the best player available at each pick. When I did my rankings I also put a lot of stock in players that did well in non-traditional stats for their position (IE Kidd is a great rebounder for a G). My thought is that it doesn't matter where REBs or BLKs, etc.. come from because it the totals that count.
Here are some random observations and thoughts:
In my 2nd trade with Doug, I was trying to include 3-3 players each and get him to switch Zach for Jamison as part of any deal. He declined. I think the trade was even, but Zach/Jamison would have been a steal for me (good judgement Doug). Interestinly, after the trade Guru projected me down from 3nd to 5th; while I showed myself moving from 3rd to 2nd. I guess I rated Andre higher and gave a bigger boost to Raef?
In my first trade with Doug, I thought it was a no brainer Shaq would be there at #7.
Round 1:
Best pick - Duncan
Surprise: Kobe, no matter where he was picked.
Round 2:
Best pick: I think Yao is going turn out to be well worth it.
Surprise: Peja too early?
Round 3:
Best pick - Baron might be the best if he stays healthy.
Surpise - Casell before Baron
Round 4:
Best pick: I love Eddie Jones at this spot
Surpirse: Another PG for Klyce, & Lebron @ 4.01 - I think he's going to be a Fg% killer.
Round 5:
Best pick: I love R. Davis here, but I might be biased.
Surpirse: 3 PGs in a row for Klyce, Caron early?
Round 6:
Best pick: bj21's trade for Malone and I thought Rand did a nice job getting 2Cs at 5.12 and 6.01
Surpirse: Klyce finally left the PGs alone ;) & I didn't like VanHorn this early.
Round 7:
Best pick: Zach might be this year's Amare (18/9 or better?)
Surpirse: PJ Brown this early. Boozer should be a pleasant surpise; I was hoping he slid down with his F/C eligibility.
Round 8:
Best pick: Wally if his feet are healthy (and he gets his shots). I might have taken Kandi here, but was happy to land Kittles.
Surpirse: Swift- I like him but thought he would fall further (to me in the 9/10 range). I can't recall if the Big Jake trade was announced yet, but they seam to have a big log jam with big guys in Memphis.
Round 9:
Best pick: Kenny Thomas looks good here. Camby too.
Surpirse: I picked Larry Hughes too early. I like him still (probably the only one), but wich I had taken Camby.
Round 10:
Best pick: Battier still on the board! Dunleavy could be a good value here.
Surpirse: McDyess- Still wouldn't have gone with him this early.
Round 11:
Best pick: In retrospect, I like Arroyo at this spot for coldwater.
Surpirse: Hedo was a bit early. DA still on the board was nice, but now the POR situation has chnaged a bit, so maybe not.
Round 12:
Best pick: Raef. Right place for Doug, any of us would have grabbed him there after the trade announcement. Let's not overlook McKie. I was all set to take him but Dave R got him 1 pick before.
Surpirse: Armstrong. I just have him rated much lower.
Round 13:
Best pick: I don't really like any of these players-- hoping Dikembe blocks some shots!
Surpirse: Vin FakerBaker might turn out to be a good value here. I'd be interested to know if the DAL/BOS trade played a part in Lion's decison here.
Round 14:
Best pick: Brian Skinner might turn out to be more than serviceable.
Surpirse: Darko- Is he even going to get court time?
Round 15:
Best pick: Jarvis Hayes. He slipped off my radar. I like Voshkul and Ely too.
Surpirse: Too late for any surpises.
Hope no one takes my above comments as critism. Just giving some gut reaction to what I thought round by round.
The pick(s) I like the best for myself is Eddie and Ricky in rounds 4 & 5. My worst pick was Larry Hughes too early.
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| 10 | hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Sat, Oct 25, 2003, 13:59
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Yo RFS
don't get hung up on Billups technically being a point guard - he puts up shooting guard type of stats with 2+ treys per game
cassell also is not the traditional PG
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| 11 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 27652109
Sat, Oct 25, 2003, 14:07
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Yeah, I know. I was more teasing you than serious. ;)
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| 12 | hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Sat, Oct 25, 2003, 17:06
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I could tell by the heavy ink at the top of my depth chart the owners had done their homework and overall I was satisfied with the team drafted considering the level of competition. I thought drafting 5th was a tough spot since I felt after the top four there was a drop off. I would have rather picked early or late. I decided to take a chance with Shaq and his FT% with the top pick thinking there was some value to having a center. As the draft unfolded it did seem that C’s were tough to come by so I felt better about having a good one already.
The pick of Shaq dictated the next few players have a good FT% which is why I passed on Baron Davis and took Cassell. I never really cared for Hamilton as a fantasy player but felt I had to take him when he was available with my 6th pick. I considered him the best available on my fifth pick but did not take him there. After taking what I considered to be the best player available for the first six picks it was apparent I needed size so I took Drew Gooden. Rounding out the draft I think Jackson, Wade, Marc Jackson, and Brian Skinner have the potential to play better than the spot they were taken. For that matter I feel that way about all the picks 8 through 15! Ridnour will get waived quickly if it is apparent he won’t see any regular season playing time.
So I will look at each team and say what I liked and what I think may have been a risk or perhaps bad luck (already)
Looking at other teams these are picks that I think will bring good value considering where they got them:
Coyotes: D. Mason and C. Arroyo
Rockafeller: Raef LaFrentz and then cashing him in at his perceived value
Dave R: Kirilenko and the potential of E. Strickland if TJ Fords chokes
Swish: McGrady (could be considered #1 overall) and Jarvis Hayes at #15
Ukula: Quentin Richardson
Doug: Zach Randolph
Guru: Harpring and Bonzi Wells
Blackjack: Malone and Dunleavy
Philflyboy: Speedy Claxton’s potential with Van Exel out
Lionpride guy: Ron Artest and perhaps Kwame Brown
Rand: Tayshaun Prince
Some teams who I think took a gamble:
Coyotes: Mashburn at 2 since he was not playing and not out a bit (not known at the pick)
Rockafeller: gamble with Webber who may miss the first month and assuming Andre Miller will play better than last year
Dave R: Chandler considering some of his health issues although I love his potential to block shots
Swish: Tinsley at risk because of Kenny Anderson
HoopsKlyce: lack of shot blocking brought about by sticking with best available
Ukula: Houston off of offseason surgery
Doug: Good luck with Camby – hopes he suits up but you did not use too high a pick to get him
Guru: Good luck with center. No sure thing to fill these two spots
Blackjack: at the time Kobe was a gamble. May have been able to get Theo in the next round but perhaps he will score more with big dog gone.
Philflyboy- Stackhouse gamble – may not have known everything at the time of pick
although I was aware of his knee (just moments before the pick)
Lionprideguy- bad luck with Walker and Van Exel
Rand- Took a gamble with LeBron- it could pay off
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| 16 | Ender
Donor
ID: 13443221
Sat, Oct 25, 2003, 19:29
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Click "Self-edit this thread" at the top of the thread. It's pretty self-explanatory from there.
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| 17 | lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 906204
Sat, Oct 25, 2003, 21:11
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Good insights, always interesting to hear everybody else's thoughts. Since I never answered my own questions:
1) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Best pick: I'm hoping Ron Artest could turn out to be a good steal in the 6th, he does so much for you if he can stay on the court. Vin Baker can pan out to be a deal in the 13th round if he makes the most of his new Antoine-less opportunity in Boston.
Worst picks: Sort of the "if I could do it again" category I guess. I think, given another chance, I definately would have taken Ben Wallace over Iverson in the second round. This would have changed the complexion of my team right away - have two star centers covered right away, give me a big chance to lead in blocks, rebounds, and even steals, and maybe I wouldn't have come to the decision later in the draft to completely bomb the FG% category. I had a bad taste in my mouth about Iverson from the moment I drafted him, and just don't like the shot-happy, scoring focus in building a roto team that I now have this season. Nick Van Exel was another one that I was already a little nervous about before he even got injured, a big wildcard for the 5th round. These kinds of things made me leave a lot on the table later in the draft, picking Dale Davis just to try and provide some stability to a volatile roster, and thereby leaving a lot of talent on the board.
Overall, I realized there were just some players I wasn't going to be able to get because of my spot drafting in quick succession and then waiting 20 picks. An example was the whole Carmelo/Nene/Maggette/Zach Randolph run in rounds 6/7. I felt the beginning of round 6 was too early to get any of these guys, although I really wanted them from the start, and there was no way they were going to still be there 20 picks later at the end of 7.
In contrast to Hoopsklyce, I'm not as comfortable with the picks at the beginning or end of a round and feel better sometimes in the middle because I feel like I can balance things out better. I actually spent a lot of time during the draft staring at Rand's roster as well, trying to figure out and make guesses at who he might pick depending on need and current team makeup, then seeing which of the two players I wanted at that point I might be able to leave on the board that he wouldn't pick and I could get on the turnaround.
2) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
As has been named already, Zach Randolph looks like he's going to have an even better year than we already thought. I think Yao Ming could be a top-10 player by the end of the year if things go right in Houston, and Gary Payton seems to be fitting into LA pretty quickly to maintain some solid numbers. In the later rounds, Desmond Mason, Larry Hughes, Quentin Richardson, Marc Jackson, Jarvis Hayes, and Damon Stoudamire all have good potential to play higher than they were selected.
3) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Not that I'm one to question anybody at all, of course. But what I didn't expect:
I thought Amare Stoudamire might last a little longer because of his limited contributions to many categories and weak FT%. Cassell was a surprise to me although it makes more sense in Hoopsklyce's explanation of balancing out certain categories. Guys like LeBron, Curry, and Tyson Chandler I thought would be around a round later than they were, just because they're likely to be pretty up and down and foul trouble could limit the minutes for the big men sometimes, so I would have gone with a more sure thing like Rashard Lewis or Chauncy Billups at some of those times. That may be nitpicking, though, because as I look back it was pretty solid and I know I figured out early on that there weren't going to be a lot of obvious steals slipping through. So therefore if there was a player I really wanted, like Crawford, I was going to have to take him a little early as long as I thought he was still a good value at that time.
4) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I really like RFS's roster, although there are a few players I think I might trade around. Solid teams for Doug and Dave R, as well.
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| 18 | hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Sun, Oct 26, 2003, 07:22
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add-on to previous post...
forgot that rfs traded Andre Miller which is a move I like. Andre Miller is a player who stung me last year after I took him with a second round pick and then he played like a 7th or 8thround pick. Not sure moving to a new city and signing a new contract will change whatever it was that wasn't right with the Clippers.
Had posted a comment (since deleted) about reece gaines but have since read the rationale post for him which explains taking the chance on him since Orl does not have much of a starting PG.
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| 19 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Mon, Oct 27, 2003, 14:59
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1) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
My best pick was probably Zach Randolph in round 6, as noted by others above. Raef was obviously a great round 12 pick, but that was just dumb luck. I think Battier was a real good pick too. I think either Butler, Camby, or Szczerbiak will turn out to be my worst pick... depending on health/performance. Only time will tell on that front, but if all perform up to their healthy expectations then they could be GREAT picks! That's a big "if" though... and it seems inevitable that at least one of these guys will either miss significant time or underperform to the point where I'll wish I had taken someone else.
2) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
I think Malone could prove to be a round 6 steal. I thought there were a lot of good picks in round 11... Q Richardson was a great pickup by Ukula... I would have taken him myself with the next pick. I think Radmanovic will also turn out to be a "better than 11th round" pick, as will Charlie Ward if he holds onto the starting PG position. There were also 2 guys who were good values earlier on _if_ they stay out of trouble... Odom and Artest.
3) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
There are a lot of guys with great potential who I think went a bit prematurely... in draft order: Stoudemire, LeBron, Curry, Chandler, Carmelo, Jaric, Thomas, Prince, Bosh... but at the same time, any of these guys could also prove to be steals. I just wasn't willing to take the risk on talent that I feel has yet to prove it can perform consistently at a high level... maybe I'm just a bit more risk-averse than some!
4) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I like Blackjackis21's team, but Kobe scares me... I just doubt he'll put up his usual numbers all season long. Still, it's a risk I'd be willing to take, in part because I'm life-long Laker fan, and in part because even if you put Kobe at 80% of last year's production, I still think he's got a very solid team from top to bottom (fantasy-wise)... and none of his picks seem like he was really over-reaching to fill a need.
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| 20 | blackjackis21 - away
ID: 239532718
Tue, Oct 28, 2003, 01:47
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Well, I initially had every intention of doing a thorough, Doug-esque type critique of the draft and everyone’s teams. I was all set to kill a 3+ hour flight dedicated to the RIHC when I discovered my laptop decided to poop out. So, this will have to be relatively brief.
Anyway, to address some of lionprideguys points (sort of):
My best picks: I’m really happy with my round 9, 10 & 11 picks (Dunleavy, Mourning, and Radmanovic). Obviously Mourning’s a huge question mark, but I’m hopeful he’ll pace himself throughout the season to achieve his ultimate goal of a shot at the Finals. Vlade and Mike D., Jr. both looked to have increased, starting roles on their respective teams. It doesn’t hurt that there have been (subsequent to the draft) some key injuries that should mean more minutes and increased roles for my guys at the outset. I was also extremely happy to get Malone in the 6th round.
My worst picks: Kobe aside (who knows?), picks I may have stretched on include Keon Clark (8th), Darko (14th), and Jerome James (15th). Two of these guys have already been jettisoned – Darko and James for George Lynch and Cal Cheaney (yee-haw!) While my initial intention was to stash Darko on my bench for the latter half of the season, I realized that this strategy didn’t make much sense in a deep, non-keeper league with only 3 bench spots. With Hudson’s injury, I wanted somebody who might contribute immediately. With Jamal Mashburn out for a while, George Lynch should play a larger role, and similarly, Cal Cheaney should benefit from Troy Murphy’s injury and Jason Richardson’s 3-game suspension. Releasing Jerome James should prove to be no big loss.
Players I wanted going into the draft that I got: M. Redd, D. Christie, and PJ Brown.
Players I wanted going into the draft that I didn’t get: Y. Ming, A. Kirilenko, B. Grant, M. Harpring and Z. Randolph.
Steals in my mind: J. Mashburn, B. Grant
Stretches in my mind: J. Stackhouse, A. Houston
Team I’d like to trade for: I like Rand’s team quite a bit – lots of question marks, but if James and Prince can contribute, I like the foundation. Rand kept taking players at the turn that I hoped to have a look at on the even-numbered rounds.
Overall: I like my team a lot. Much depends on Kobe, which doesn’t look so great right now, but I think he’ll be OK in the end, and an OK Kobe ain’t bad. My projections (not nearly as thorough as some of those posted) would have me doing better in points and assists than some people’s and relatively worse in rebounds. I really would have liked to avoid Hudson’s injury, but I guess if my biggest complaint is a sprained ankle to my 12th round pick, that’s not too bad.
Good luck all.
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