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0 Subject: TSN Ultimate Player Ownership - 12/01/2006

Posted by: RecycledSpinalFluid - Dude [204401122] Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 12:06
I have chosen to make the TSN Ultimate Player Ownership information available to the GuruPatron community, as a sign of appreciation
for their past, present and future support of RotoGuru.com and it's multiple, excellent tools, made freely available by 'Guru', Dave Hall.

I (RecycledSpinalFluid) have no official capacity with RotoGuru.com, other than being a GuruPatron, myself.
TRADE COUNT DETAILS FOR 3238 TEAMS WITH > 0 TOTAL TSNPs
TRADES
LEFT		TEAM
COUNT		AVG
FV		MAX
FV		AVG
WWR		MAX
WWR
20
142
-9,999
-9,999
3,050
1,286
19
30
-9,999
-9,999
2,887
2,454
18
25
-9,999
-9,999
2,792
2,159
17
33
-9,999
-9,999
2,706
1,776
16
61
-9,999
-9,999
2,730
1,087
15
36
-9,999
-9,999
2,800
2,043
14
40
-9,999
-9,999
2,688
1,871
13
51
-9,999
-9,999
2,625
1,584
12
74
-9,999
-9,999
2,483
541
11
45
-9,999
-9,999
2,259
453
10
40
-9,999
-9,999
2,314
155
9
62
-9,999
-9,999
2,238
251
8
105
-9,999
-9,999
2,080
156
7
71
-9,999
-9,999
1,844
185
6
142
-9,999
-9,999
1,758
50
5
237
-9,999
-9,999
1,229
7
4
345
-9,999
-9,999
1,399
1
3
385
-9,999
-9,999
1,047
2
2
469
-9,999
-9,999
1,156
17
1
441
-9,999
-9,999
1,376
8
0
404
-9,999
-9,999
1,514
9
1Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 13:10 		+17 for Boozer!
2Slow Stick
      Dude
      ID: 267282920
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 15:02 		Thank you RSF for this data.
I would be lost without it.

I did notice something odd.
Smallworld must have added a new factor in the repricing formula, current ownership.
Notice that the direct relationship between sells and price loss no longer exist in this example.
....Roto Guru's Smallworld data.....RSF's data
Name...........Team..Price..Chng...Owners..Delta
Krstic, Nenad...NJN..5,550...-80.....153...-110
Carter, Vince...NJN..8,580..-110.....103...-125
Parker, Anthony.Tor.....800...-90.....705...-129
Kidd, Jason.....NJN..9,760..-120.....149...-183
Okafor, Emeka...Cha.7,760..-160.....542...-379
3Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 15:36 		Actually, those numbers all look normal. Carter dropped below the gravity line, so his loss of -110 probably includes -30 of gravity. And the dampening factor for large moves explains the non-linearity (Kidd and Okafor).

For players out of gravity, if you plot the absolute value of net buys vs. the square of the price change, you get a pretty straight line, as usual.



I see no evidence that there's any ownership factor going on here (other than gravity, which is excluded from the chart).
4Weykool
      Leader
      ID: 41750315
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 17:31 		RFS can correct me if I am wrong but from what I understand the actual counts can vary depending on how accurate the program runs from day to day as well as RFS's expertise in sorting and compiling the data.
There are 3000+ teams with 10 players each totaling over 30,000 players.
If the program for some reason "skipped" 10 teams one night then the ownership numbers for 2 days might not make "perfect" sense for one reason or another.
As Guru's chart shows overall the numbers give us the desired accuracy we need in order to make our decisions regarding the relative ownership levels of players.
We dont need 100% accurate numbers when it comes to making these decisions.

On a side note:
Using the "trades left" chart how many trades left would be considered a "dead" team?

Also....I asked before but I will try again....does RSF accept donations for his time and efforts?
Your efforts are greatly appreciated...and thank you.
5Species
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 17:52 		Weykool - I'm not sure about the donations, but I can tell you from personal experience that RSF really enjoys being reminded of taking Desmond Mason with a high draft pick in a 20-team keeper league.
6RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 18:29 		No need to donate to me, to Guru will do.

Even more than the Dez Mason gaffe (Dez over Dwight Howard in a keeper draft...admittedly I was a heavy veteran stud loaded team...but still...WTF was I thinking), I like to be reminded of when I traded Corey Maggette and a first rounder for Damon Jones and a 3rd rounder. Pretty sure I got Mags in that deal though...If I could just remember who that deal was with again... :)

As for your question, I think I have it coded so it doesn't actually skip any teams. Except when the whole shitteroo fails on me, as we have seen from time to time this season. There is something wrong with my query to make the list about if a player drops out of ownership completely from the previous day, it doesn't show up on this list, but if ownership is that small, I'm not going to get worked up over it yet.
7Weykool
      Leader
      ID: 41750315
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 18:52 		And the "dead teams" question?

In baseball my partner wanted to outright drop Justin Morneau after 3 weeks.
Granted he was in a bit of a slump but it was an auction league and we paid $2 when guys like Pujlos were going for over $40.
8RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 19:02 		Dead teams is kind of a personal judgement call. Is someone hoarding trades or have they already bagged it? I sure people wouldn't have already quit by now, but they do.

Probably could work something up showing something like:
"Last roster move 0 to 7 days ago"
"Last Roster move 8 to 14 days ago"
"Last Roster move 15 to 21 days ago"
blah blah

Don't know how easy it would be, but I'll look into it...also assuming I am tracking that info already.
9Slow Stick
      Dude
      ID: 267282920
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 19:40 		RSF thank you again.

Wow. I am glad/sorry I started this discussion.

I knew it was over the gravity, but I thought gravity only kicked in when there was no "activity"

Vince carter had heavy sell activity, which reduced the price, and still because the closing ownership count was lower than the threshold he was kicked another -30. Brutal.

Glad he was not on my roster.
I do have one player with only 210 owners.
Must keep close watch on him.

10Donkey Hunter
      Sustainer
      ID: 916288962
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 19:58 		I'm upset that I had to do my own research to see that you meant Carmelo in that last post. I had to scroll all the way up and then all the way back down. My finger hurts now. :)
11RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 20:05 		Is it your middle or index finger that hurts?
12Weykool
      Leader
      ID: 41750315
      Fri, Dec 01, 2006, 20:22 		#8

That wouldnt be necessary.
I was more looking for a "consensus opinion" of what people thought.
A quick check of teams in my league shows about 10% of teams that have quit.
Quit = Double didgit trades and RV less than 50 mil.
Unless they are saving up for a surprise finish I think they have forgotten about thier teams.

My guess was that teams with 12+ trades are probably not playing any more.
There could be a few who are but they would be offset by teams that have quit with 10-11 trades.
12+ trades is currently 492 teams.
Seems like a big number but it wouldnt surprise me.
13An Old Hippie
      Sustainer
      ID: 2106243
      Sat, Dec 02, 2006, 07:49 		I am assuming that this thread pertains to Ownership data from TSN. As that is the title. If I am ask where exactly is it? Not that I would know what to do with it but feel it may help sometime in the future. Any help would be appreciated.
14Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Dec 02, 2006, 10:33 		Hippie - now that your ID has clearly been validated (based on the visibility of your Sustainer subtitle), you should be able to see the data (in the opening post) automatically.
15RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Sat, Dec 02, 2006, 12:04 		An Old Hippie, try this if its still not showing:

I'm putting my penny on "security settings" in IE.

Open an IE windows (you have one open if you are reading this :)

Select "Tools" in the menu bar
Select "Internet Options" in the sub menu
Select the "Security" Tab
Click on "Internet" (the globe icon)
Click the "Custom Level..." button
Under "Scripting", look for "Active Scripting" (near end of list), and set this to "Enable"

Click the "OK" button.
16 Indy Pegs
      ID: 2210332123
      Sat, Dec 02, 2006, 12:14 		I show up in Guru's lists as a patron, but sometimes access from the office and sometimes from home, and sometimes (like today) get only a list of available trades, not the ownership. Does coming from a different computer cause me not to be recognized unless I reset my identity each time?
Thanks for any help.
17RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Sat, Dec 02, 2006, 12:16 		Yep, just get validated. Easiest way to see that you aren't is if you don't have the additional "tag" under your name when you post.
18Indy Pegs
      Leader
      ID: 04022314
      Sat, Dec 02, 2006, 12:26 		Thanks, RSF, and thanks for the data. No substitute for reading the instructions, but I am a male after all.
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