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0 Subject: Kentucky Derby Talk

Posted by: Madman
- [21355147] Wed, Apr 14, 2004, 11:39

Looks like it's about 3 weeks away.


I saw the Wood Memorial and Tappit was impressive coming from behind. That's the style you need at Churchill.

Eddington was also right there but I don't think he's even gonna be in the Derby.

Anybody know anything about other horses?
1Madman
      ID: 21355147
      Wed, Apr 14, 2004, 11:43
Here's 3 replays if you are interested.

Replays of three April 10 Derby prep races
2Madman
      ID: 21355147
      Wed, Apr 14, 2004, 11:53
Wow watch "SMARTY JONES" win that Arkansas Derby. That horse is undefeated. Looks like he'll be the favorite in the Derby.

62,000 people were at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.
3GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 60151121
      Tue, Apr 27, 2004, 13:10
Listed below are the leading contenders for the 130th Kentucky Derby ranked by earnings in graded stakes races, the tiebreaker

Listed below are the leading contenders for the 130th Kentucky Derby ranked by earnings in graded stakes races, the tiebreaker if the field exceeds the maximum 20 horses. Earnings current as of Saturday, April 17.

NO.

HORSE

EARNINGS

NO.

HORSE

EARNINGS

NO.

HORSE

EARNINGS

1.)

The Cliff's Edge

$793,258

9.)

Read the Footnotes

$397,860

17.)

Value Plus*

$252,500

2.)

Action This Day

$780,000

10.)

Wimbledon

$375,000

18.)

St Averil

$215,200

3.)

Friends Lake

$611,000

11.)

Pollard's Vision

$366,000

19.)

Master David

$208,000

4.)

Smarty Jones

$600,000

12.)

Imperialism

$363,000

20.)

Song of the Sword

$132,500

5.)

Tapit

$530,000

13.)

Minister Eric

$350,000

21.)

Pro Prado

$105,685

6.)

Castledale

$510,000

14.)

Birdstone

$327,000

22.)

Eddington

$95,000

7.)

Limehouse

$478,405

15.)

Borrego

$320,000

23.)

Rock Hard Ten

$90,000

8.)

Lion Heart

$475,600

16.)

Quintons Gold Rush

$258,500

 

 

 

* Unlikely to start.

 

I think I like Imperialism, but not sure yet. We'll be out camping, but will be close enough to the OTB at Pomona if I decide to do something.

Cliff

4StLCards
      Leader
      ID: 31010716
      Tue, Apr 27, 2004, 13:15
Come on GL, we all know you like "The Cliff's Edge" ;-)



5bookie
      ID: 1337127
      Tue, Apr 27, 2004, 13:19
Haven't even looked at the field yet, but the Derby is always such a crapshoot... Too many horses to contend with in traffic... I wish they'd limit the field to 12 maybe 14.... But everyone wants the chance to run for the roses, so that will never happen....
6GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 60151121
      Tue, Apr 27, 2004, 14:09
It is a very different race to handicap.
You have to handicap toward the horses that will get out in front and have endurance, or toward those that have shown the ability to stay out of trouble and still stay close enough to make a good final run.

This is also a case of where the jockey is very important.

Cliff
7bookie
      ID: 1337127
      Tue, Apr 27, 2004, 15:48
I completely agree with all of that Cliff.... As much horse racing as I've seen and bet on though, I still can't get consistent results with the Derby.... Generally though, stakes races and even higher level allowance races, I win more bets than I lose... It's those dang claiming races that take my money.....
8blue hen
      ID: 353412123
      Wed, Apr 28, 2004, 01:45
Smarty Jones is great. Won me some in Ark.
9GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 60151121
      Wed, Apr 28, 2004, 16:25
Here's the field.

Official odds and post positions were to be determined later Wednesday. The field, in order of post-position selection, is: Minister Eric, Master David, Friends Lake, Imperialism, St Averil, Action This Day, Wimbledon, The Cliff's Edge, Pollard's Vision, Borrego, Smarty Jones, Read the Footnotes, Birdstone, Lion Heart, Castledale, Tapit, Pro Prado, Song of the Sword, Limehouse and Quintons Gold Rush.

Cliff
10GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 60151121
      Wed, Apr 28, 2004, 16:28
It took me years to learn to stay away from cheap claiming and Maiden races.

Agree 100% with what you are saying Bookie.

I tend to stay away from Derby day, just due to the fact that I tend to lose money then.

Waiting on the Post positions and odds to see if anything makes sense.

Cliff
11GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 60151121
      Wed, Apr 28, 2004, 18:31
3yo - 1 1/4 miles - Dirt - Grade I - $1,214,800 (if all 20 start)
3yo - 1 1/4 miles - Dirt - Grade I - $1,214,800 (if all 20 start)
 
PP Horse               Jockey                Trainer               Odds
-- -----               ------                -------               ----
 
 1 Limehouse           Jose Santos           Todd Pletcher         30-1
 
 2 Song of the Sword   Norberto Arroyo, Jr.  Jennifer Pedersen     30-1
 
 3 Lion Heart          Mike Smith            Patrick Biancone      10-1
 
 4 Action This Day     David Flores          Richard Mandella      30-1
 
 5 Wimbledon           Jerry Bailey          Bob Baffert           15-1
 
 6 Friends Lake        Richard Migliore      John Kimmel           15-1
 
 7 Minister Eric       Pat Day               Richard Mandella      30-1
 
 8 Master David        Alex Solis            Bobby Frankel         12-1
 
 9 St. Averil          Tyler Baze            Rafael Becerra        30-1
 
10 Imperialism         Kent Desormeaux       Kristin Mulhall       15-1
 
11 The Cliff's Edge    Shane Sellers         Nick Zito              4-1
 
12 Borrego             Victor Espinzoza      Beau Greely           20-1
 
13 Birdstone           Edgar Prado           Nick Zito             50-1
 
14 Read The Footnotes  Robby Albarado        Richard Violette      12-1
 
15 Smarty Jones        Stewart Elliot        John Servis            9-2
 
16 Castledale (IRE)    Jose Valdivia         Jeff Mullins          15-1
 
17 Pollard's Vision    John Velazquez        Tood Pletcher         20-1
 
18 Tapit               Ramon A. Dominguez    Michael W. Dickinson   8-1
 
19 Pro Prado           John McKee            Robert Holthus        30-1
 
20 Quintons Gold Rush  Corey Nakatani        Steve Asmussen        20-1
 
10th race of 12 - 130th running
Site: Churchill Downs - Louisville, Kentucky
Post Time: 6:04 p.m. EDT (Live on NBC)
 
2003 winner: Funny Cide
Stakes Record - Secretariat 1:59 2/5 (1973)

 

12Farn
      Sustainer
      ID: 451044109
      Wed, Apr 28, 2004, 19:22
I like Wimbledon, Imperialism, and Cliff's Edge.

The speed of Lion Heart intrigues me at the 3 spot and I think his early speed could force other horses to run faster than they would prefer to. We could see a blazing half mile with Lion Heart in the front.

I will probably avoid any real big wagers on this race because with 20 horses you never know what might happen out of the gate.
13Madman
      ID: 503552218
      Wed, Apr 28, 2004, 21:47
Nick Zito is the trainer of the favorite "Cliffs Edge". That's pretty interesting.

Luv Nick Zito and I bet he has never had the favorite in the derby.

There was a good show on HBO about jockeys and their struggles with weight and Shane Sellers was the focus of it. He's the jockey on "Cliffs Edge"
14GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 60151121
      Wed, Apr 28, 2004, 23:19
Shane Sellers is a great jockey.

Really like Desormeaux up on Imperialism.

Also like the Alex Solis / Bobby Frankel combination on Master David.

Cliff
15Madman
      ID: 503552218
      Fri, Apr 30, 2004, 09:29
I think I'm gonna bet on this horse called "Friends Lake".

He won the Florida Derby and hasn't raced since. Guess who he beat in the Florida Derby? He beat Cliffs Edge and Tapit who are two of the favorites.

Trainer says he runs good on layoffs Sire was AP Indy who's father was Seattle Slew. His Beyer figures are a little lower than the other horses but he could improve on that. Cliffs Edge and Tapit both won Stakes races after the Florida Derby and they ran big Beyer Figures.

And Friends Lake has the come from behind style that wins at the Derby. He should be big odds tommorrow.

Don't leave him out of your gimmick bets.
16Farn
      Sustainer
      ID: 451044109
      Fri, Apr 30, 2004, 09:37
Wimbledon is out with swelling in his left leg. Field is down to 19.

Wimbledon Out
17Madman
      ID: 503552218
      Fri, Apr 30, 2004, 09:41
Jerry Bailey out of the Derby? Wow, I bet some jockey is gonna lose their Derby ride when an owner dumps him and puts Bailey on his horse.

18Madman
      ID: 503552218
      Fri, Apr 30, 2004, 09:44
This Ramon Dominquez guy who is riding Tapit might be in danger of losing his ride to Bailey.

Bailey is the best jockey in America. Somebody is gonna pick him up.
19Farn
      Sustainer
      ID: 451044109
      Fri, Apr 30, 2004, 13:50
St. Averil out too. Use the link above.


Posts have changed a bit.

The first two posts will be empty, so the following horses will move out one spot: Limehouse, Song of the Sword, Lion Heart, Action This Day, Friends Lake, Minister Eric and Master David. Horses in posts 10 through 20 were unaffected.
20Madman
      ID: 2143628
      Sun, May 02, 2004, 10:39
"Smarty Jones" was the only horse in the field on "first time Lasix".

If you watch the tape of that race, that horse ran out of his mind. Got bumped around pretty good on the first turn but just kept going.
21bookie
      ID: 1337127
      Mon, May 03, 2004, 10:27
Once the rains came... I felt the Exacta was a lock... Speed kills in the slop, so with Lionheart's early speed and Smarty's just off the pace stalking style were perfect for that, I just wasn't sure if Smarty could go the distance....... The real closers had their work cut out for them.. All in all it was a great race and fantastic ride by Stu Elliot...
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