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Subject: Florida Derby on Saturday! Who do you like?
Posted by: MadAndRabidDOG
- [412552721] Fri, Apr 01, 2005, 10:43
Past performances and bios below. If you like a horse please state WHY YOU DO!! The race is on ABC 5-6 Eastern
Gulfstream Park - Florida Derby (G1)
By PAUL MALECKI
Noble Causeway
$1.15M yearling gets the services of Gulfstream's leading rider Prado in initial stakes challenge (Edgar guided Harlan's Holiday to '02 Florida Derby triumph); local runnerup to Fountain of Youth 2nd finisher and late defection Bandini has advanced with each outing; he and barnmate High Fly are the lone 9 furlong winners and a fine inside trip behind legitimate fractions awaits this up-and-coming 3-year-old; dangerous.
B. B. Best
The probable pacesetter gets a return call from Chavez, the pilot of '01 hero Monarchos; 7-for-26 TJ team attempts to execute mild upset with speedy stakes-winner but High Fly, Vicarage and Mighty Mecke will be in close attendance from the bell; can't knock him for troubled 4th to undefeated Lost in the Fog in comeback and FOY resulted in lifetime best Beyer; gets bottom from stamina-building Calder breeze; it's the slower the pace the better for fringe contender.
Park Avenue Ball
3rd off the layoff runner pulled off '04 G2 Futurity upset over Wallstreet Scandal and Evil Minister, a pair of longshots today; high % Dominguez can ably deputize for Castellano (2nd in the GP standings; rides Wallstreet Scandal) but individual must find a way to make up ground on High Fly and B. B. Best; chestnut has cracked the exacta in 5 of 7 and posted nice Palm Meadows breeze for this; wouldn't be a shock yet must step up.
High Fly
Deserving chalk and top last Beyer horse seeks 2nd straight under Bailey, in the saddle beneath Technology ('92) and Empire Maker ('03); Live Oak homebred was the victim of wide trip out of tough post position in only loss (behind late defection Closing Argument) and is the lone Florida Derby entrant to have fired a triple-digit Beyer; figures to be stalking B. B. Best again from the start and may also draft behind either Vicarage and Mighty Mecke (if they gun) before striking; obviously capable as the one to beat.
Vicarage
Runner hailing from '04 Eclipse connections (21-for-75 at the meet) completed the 2-speed number behind undefeated Frankel-trainee High Limit in the La. Derby; stamina questions still loom despite that improved performance; a repeat of latest will find him in close stalking position and sticking around for a slice at the finish; leaning elsewhere.
Mighty Mecke
Undefeated colt answered the 2-turn question at Ocala for 3-for-9 TJ combo; connections strike while the iron is hot, just 12 days after that victory in tougher spot; can stalker handle more distance and stiffer competition off such a short respite?; can't deny colt's talent but others rank higher under these circumstances.
Papi Chullo
Maiden proved he belongs in this spot with a decent effort after being squeezed in the FOY; Albarado is the latest top jock to try his hand aboard one who picked up late pieces in a Sham Stakes which went very slowly late; note Southern Africa emerged from that race to win a Sunland Park stakes and is favored to capture today's $500K WinStar Derby in New Mexico; stretch-runner is eligible to grab a slice from off the pace.
Wallstreet Scandal
Saratoga dirt debut winner raced evenly, despite firing a lifetime best main track figure behind Vicarage in Louisiana; Castellano's choice draws wide for this 3rd off the layoff assignment; connections have a promising turf horse on their hands if this plan doesn't pan out; leaning in another direction.
Evil Minister
G3 Sapling victor doesn't have an 80 Beyer on resume; drew worst in this ambitious spot for 1-for-3 TJ combination after Swale comeback leaving much to be desired; made little impact in lone 2-turn attempt, the G1 Breeders' Futurity in Kentucky; others entice more.
Florida Derby Past Performances in PDF |
| 1 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Fri, Apr 01, 2005, 10:50
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High Fly is an obvious favorite. Evil Minister is an obvious throwout. That leaves 7 horses to analyze.
Nick Zito's other horse besides High Fly is Noble Causeway and he definitely has a shot based on his last speed figure. This is his first stakes race though.
BB Best only lost to High Fly in the Fountain of Youth by 1.5 lengths but he's a speed-fader type. I doubt he can go wire to wire on this field. Most likely he'll be in the trifecta though.
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| 2 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Fri, Apr 01, 2005, 11:03
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Park Avenue Ball looks like he's gonna be in top form but I don't know if this guy has enough to run with alot of these horses. His top Beyer which came in his last race was 88 but he did have a little trouble. So he was probably over 90 in that race.
He's gonna have to be in the 96-100 area to run with alot of these horses.
I just noticed that he did beat Vicarage on Feb 5th when he had an "awkward start" and Vicarage came back to run a 98 Beyer in his next race.
There might be some hidden talent here. Hmmmmmm?
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| 3 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Fri, Apr 01, 2005, 22:46
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The enthusiasm for Horse Racing on these boards is overwhelming!! LOL
Anyway, I don't know about this race. If High Fly falters in this race just about any one of these horses could win this thing except for Evil Minister.
I'm not feeling it. Might have to pass.
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| 4 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 11:20
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Damn, where are the gamblers on this board? None of you guys have an opinion on this race?
Horse racing is exciting dudes? You should try it some time.
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| 5 | jimmy
Dude
ID: 349182621
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 14:01
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Alright MD, I'm a dog person, so I only wager on about 10 horse races a year, stopped by the track an got a exacta box 1+2+4+5+6 for the FL Derby. Not into dissecting the horses lines and all. I'll scan the horses lines like I'm looking at a dog race, I know, but to each his own.
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| 6 | jimmy
Dude
ID: 349182621
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 14:10
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Also, heard at the track that High Fly was sick this past week, so he might be running for the practice.
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| 7 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 14:49
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Started to respond to this last nite and ended up locking up the computer.
Don't know that I feel comfortable to bet anybody straight up.
If it were me, would probably bet:
$20 exacta Noble Causeway - High Fly
$10 exacta High Fly - Noble Causeway
Possibly:
$5 exacta box Noble Causeway - High Fly - BB Best
Cliff
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| 8 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 14:50
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That's $60 of action.
Also, heard what Jimmy did about High Fly
Cliff
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| 9 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 15:36
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Finally, some responses.
Interesting news about High Fly. I'm not betting this race because like I said it's too competitive.
I'm actually leaning toward a big upset if High Fly doesn't run. Park Avenue Ball, Vicarage, or Papi Chullo I think could pull it off.
That other Nick Zito horse the #1 Noble Causeway was bought for 1.15 million dollars. That's something to consider.
Should be interesting but I'm not betting it.
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| 10 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 15:41
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Hey Jimmy what dog track you like playing? I'm in Wisconsin so I actually bet on some of the worst dogs in America at Geneva Lakes Kennel Club.
Just about the end of the road for dogs. LOL
I prefer Geneva Lakes instead of Dairyland though.
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| 11 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 15:42
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And that makes sense bsed on what I see.
Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make.
Cliff
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| 12 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 15:47
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True Goat, I wait until I really like something.
I watched a video of Vicarage running in the Louisiana Derby and that horse was running with High Limit, one of the Kentucky Derby favorites, for just about the whole race until High Limit pulled away at the end.
He might bounce in this race (not run because he expended to much energy in his last race) but he ran a huge race in the LA Derby.
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| 13 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 17:36
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Non stop Pope coverage, so I can't watch the race.
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| 14 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 17:51
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All the favorites came in. Exacta paid $16.80. Goat you would have won.
1 High Fly
2 Noble Causeway
3 BB Best
4 Park Avenue Ball
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| 15 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 17:53
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$16.80 is actually a pretty nice payoff for a High Fly- Noble Causeway exacta.
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| 16 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 17:55
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Race 12 Finish Runner Win Place Show
1st 4 4.40 2.60 2.60
2nd 1 3.60 2.80
3rd 2 3.80
4th 3
$2 Exacta 4/1 16.80
$2 Trifecta 4/1/2 65.00
$1 Trifecta Box 32.50
$2 Superfecta 4/1/2/3 475.20
$1 Superfecta Box 237.60
$2 Pick-3 Pick Prices 3 of 3 127.40
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| 17 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 17:57
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Would have made about $40 off the the exactas, and would have it the Tri also.
Sure seems like that exacta should have been less than that.
Sometimes thats better than a big win bet if you don't feel comfortable.
What did High Fly pay to win?
Cliff
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| 18 | jimmy
Dude
ID: 349182621
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 18:00
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$8 exacta, I realize it's better than throwing tickets on the floor, but I'm looking for a price, left a $20 bill on the floor today.
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| 19 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 18:00
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$4.40
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| 20 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 18:09
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Next week is the Wood Memorial from Aqueduct, The Santa Anita Derby and The Illinois Derby. Big Weekend. I think alot of the main Kentucky Derby contenders will be running.
I'll make another thread when the past performances come out.
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| 21 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 18:22
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OK, he went off at even money.
Not the kind of bets you want to make if you are looking to make money.
Not bad money on the Exacta at all.
But, this is where $20 and $100 exactas straight up make you money.
$20 exacta High Fly - Noble Causeway pays $168 8.4 to 1 is great odds on your money.
$100 exacta would have brought you $840.
I'll take those all day long.
Especially with an even money favorite on top.
What were the odds on the 1 horse at race time.
At $3.60 to place, not knowing how much money was on the winner to place, I would guess he was 5-2, 3-1, 7-2. Somewhere right around in there.
Which means, that there is no way in H*ll that the exacta should have been that much.
Nice bet for that race.
Cliff
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| 22 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 18:26
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I think Noble Causeway was around 2-1 or something close.
Yea the Exacta was defintely an overlay. It wouldn't have been 8.4 to 1 though. You have to subtract your $2 dollar wager so it was 7.4 to 1.
Still an overlay for an exacta with the top 2 favorites. The trifecta wasn't bad either for the top 3 favorites in order.
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| 23 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 18:32
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Forgot to subtract.
Been away from it for a long time now.
Kind of rusty.
Still, even money and 2-1 for a $16.80 exacta is strange.
Where was all of the exacta money being bet?
Something was really out of whack.
Those are the things you need to look for.
Cliff
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| 24 | MadAndRabidDOG
ID: 412552721
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 18:37
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I don't know I wasn't watching the pools. I haven't even seen the race yet because our ABC affiliate in Milwaukee was covering the Pope's death.
I guess alot of people didn't think the top 2 choices were going to come in. Or they didn't think it was worth betting.
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| 25 | GoatLocker
ID: 427272213
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 18:41
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OK, didn't know if you had seen the pools or not, just really wierd.
Really nice overlay though.
Cliff
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| 26 | jimmy
Dude
ID: 349182621
Sat, Apr 02, 2005, 20:50
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Thought I left out Noble Causeway, so I lost $11.60.
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