Horse Racing Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread


0 Subject: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby

Posted by: MadandRabidDog
- [9340615] Thu, Apr 07, 2005, 07:07

I will be posting and linking free past performances and other information below.



If you like a horse please say WHY?


SANTA ANITA DERBY PAST PERFORMANCES



1MadandRabidDog
      ID: 9340615
      Thu, Apr 07, 2005, 15:43
WOOD MEMORIAL PAST PERFORMANCES- AT AQUEDUCT NY
2GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Fri, Apr 08, 2005, 22:36
Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

Toss the one - don't like the two months off. Even though the 98 Beyer could be competitive in this race.

Toss the two -Best Beyer does not put him in the hunt.

I believe any of the other six could win the race.

But, do have a horse I would bet.

1, 3, 5, 7 all want to be on the lead.

I expect Espinoza to take the 5 (Going Wild) to the lead and never look back. He has two of the best three Beyers in the race with his 104 and 100.

The Sham on 5 Feb was a nice race at the distance of todays race. The loss in the Santa Catalina to Declans Moon (the 2 year old Champ) doesn't bother me at all. I also like the fact that Lucas stops at Churchill downs with the horse and he goes 5f in 1:00 Breezing on 3 Apr.

The class of the race is 3, 4, 5, 7.

The 8 will be coming hard late, but not sure he can get there.

Again, if I'm betting it - A straight win bet on the 5.

Another horse that could surprise is the 6.
Again, this is probably going to be a real good race.

Poked around a little, but couldn't find a morning line. Would look for 3-1 or better on the 5. Expect the 3 and 7 to be one and two in the morning line.

Cliff
3GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Fri, Apr 08, 2005, 22:46
Santa Anita Derby

I would probably pass this race.

The class of the race is the filly Sweet Catomine (3) and the invader from Great Britain - Wilko (10).

The morning line on the 3 is 7-5. Expect a ton of money to be put down on this million dollar winner.

Ron Ellis thinks he has the horse to beat in the 4.

I just never have liked fillies running against the boys.

If I was going to bet it at all, I would take a long hard look at the 10. For the right odds, that might be the bet. He gets the jockey back who won with him in his first race stateside. A grade 1 by the way. Two nice races in Europe in Group 2s which are equivilant to Grade 1s stateside. This is probably the upsetter if the 3 doesn't win it.

Also, looks to be a pretty paceless race, which could find all 11 horses close as they round the turn.

Cliff
4MadandRabidDog
      ID: 9340615
      Sat, Apr 09, 2005, 00:42
That 3 horse at Aqueduct "Bellamy Road" I think is owned by George Steinbrenner.

Came right out of the box after a 5 month layoff and wins an allowance race by 15 lengths after he got bumped at the start and turns in a 96 Beyer.

2nd start off the layoff with a couple decent works in between. Trained by Nick Zito.


I doubt you will get 3-1 on Going Wild but you might get 3-1 on this horse.



The 6, 7, 8 were all in the same race last time and all were within 1.5 lengths of each other. The 6 lost his whip or something and it hit the other two and he got disqualified and placed 4th.

The 7 "Galloping Grocer" has run a 102 Beyer and 3rd race off the layoff which I believe is ideal for a top performance.

The 8 "Naughty New Yorker" is getting first time Lasix and looks like he's a closer which might be the right style for this race because I see alot of speed horses. The 1, 3, 5, 7 all could push the pace. I got this horse as the 4th fastest horse in the race so I don't know if he's got enough.


It's a competitive race. Going Wild is the obvious favorite. I'm leaning toward the 7 horse Galloping Grocer or the 3 horse Bellamy Road after that.


I really don't like the Santa Anita Derby either. Same reason as you. The favorite is gonna be the filly Sweet Cantomine. I might just play The Wood and forget about Santa Anita.
5MadandRabidDog
      ID: 9340615
      Sat, Apr 09, 2005, 00:57
Hey Goat, take another look at that 8 horse at Aqueduct.

He's getting the juice (Lasix) which might help him improve to maybe a 100 Beyer. He's already ran two 96's. He's also getting an extra 1/16 of a mile to run which is definitely going to help him. You said yourself he's going to be coming hard late. And he's already run with most of these horses before and been right with them.

I think I'm gonna play exactas off this horse. I'm starting to get a really good feeling about it. I think the race sets up for him and like I said he's got the juice. Alot of horses run big on first time Lasix.

I liked the 7 horse but it looks like he's been dying in the stretch since he came back from the layoff. Steinbrenner's horse the 3 might be too inexperienced for these horses right now.
6Trip
      Sustainer
      ID: 13961611
      Sat, Apr 09, 2005, 01:03
Horse Racing Sucks!
8MadandRabidDog
      ID: 9340615
      Sat, Apr 09, 2005, 06:37
Aqueduct - Wood Memorial (G1)
By STEVE GRABOWSKI


Scrappy T
Fresh speed is often this best kind and this guy should have plenty of that to offer as the rail draw and switch to Bejarano make him a certain send on the step up to G1 company; likely to encounter early pressure from the California invader, Going Wild, and possibly even Galloping Grocer who has made it pretty clear that he does not enjoy being rated; both career scores came when he was able to relax on the front end and while it's hard to envision that happening today, he's certainly eligible to last for a share of this big pot.

Byanosejoe
Didn't think this guy was stakes quality, but he proved us wrong in the G3 Gotham as he got within a couple of lengths of the winner at the wire despite encountering trouble; Dutrow reaches out for Santos to pilot gelding who was ok in his lone 2 turn attempt when trying winners for the first time; best case scenario is that the cozy draw enables him to save all the ground early behind a 3 way duel, but even if he puts away the pacesetters, would he have enough to hold off the late runners? Tough call today as he's lightly raced and has some upside.

Bellamy Road
That was some performance in his return to the races last time and the effort earned him this field's highest last out Beyer; one of several top notch Kentucky Derby contenders for Zito, this colt will likely need to prove he doesn't need the lead to win in this spot as both of his distance wins have come while on the engine; he's been working well out of town for this, but this track is unchartered ground for him and you never know how they are going to take to new surroundings until they actually try it; likely huge factor, but he's likely to be overbet in this spot.

Survivalist
Regally bred colt got a great setup in the Gotham, a race that came back pretty slow on the Beyer scale, but 4 guys who finished behind him return here as well; Shug has had very high hopes for him from the beginning and today's 2 turn trip may very well be just what he needs to break through to the next level; race looks to set up very well for him as there should be quite a bit of early pace.

Going Wild
Speedster came into his own at Santa Anita this winter where he went from a maiden on opening day of that meeting to a graded stakes placed, multiple stakes winner in just 4 starts; Lukas trained runner is another who is working well out of town, but will have to deal with the new surroundings; concerned that he's relatively one dimensional as he's never won without the early lead and he'd likely have to work very hard to get the top spot from the gate today; Espinoza treks here for the mount, but we're expecting he'll take money at the windows so we'll try to beat him on the win end.

Pavo
If you haven't seen the Gotham as of yet, check the replay to see the amazing display of horsemanship put on display by Alan Garcia who lost his irons early on yet never gave up on this guy but will now be replaced by Bailey; not sure that this guy really wants 2 turns and that grass is not the surface over which we'll see his best, but he certainly tries hard; may not be as good as the better ones in here, but he should be a decent price and that's something to consider for exotic purposes.

Galloping Grocer
State bred's bubble burst when his early efforts took their toll on him in the Whirlaway off the layoff and he showed he wants nothing to do with the rating tactics Luzzi employed on the turn back last time, so we'd have to think he'll be sent from the bell today and that could subject him to a wide journey; obviously mega talented, we'd normally be enthused with today's draw as a stalking trip from close range is entirely possible; until he agrees to be rated, he's likely to be a money burner in top company, but he's quite usable underneath in exotics.

Naughty New Yorker
Field's other New York bred entrant was found to have bled in the Gotham effort behind Survivalist while finishing less than 2 lengths off that rival and he'll now be administered with Lasix; late runner broke his maiden over this surface and he's displayed a serious affinity for 2 turn racing; there's plenty of early speed in here which should allow him to revert to his one run style and he's been working quickly for this; expecting him to be a huge factor in the lane and he just may run by them all.









Santa Anita - Santa Anita Derby (G1)
By ART GROPPER



Giacomo
Grade 1-placed colt defeated 2 of these in the San Felipe; been very close in 4 defeats following last fall's maiden romp over the track; is a half to Grade 3-placed Sea Jewel (0-5, 105K in dirt routes); defeated Wilko twice since his Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory; rider-barn are 1-for-9 this meet; he's still eligible for n1x allowance company; certainly fits here, but the lack of wins has me thinking underneath.

Sweet Catomine
Taking the Winning Colors route as that filly won the Santa Anita Derby, then the Kentucky Derby; Sweet's only loss was in unveiling when she was 5-wide sprinting; as a 2-year-old, she saved her best for the biggest spot in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, so figures to be primed for her best today; hasn't posted her best Beyers in either of her 2005 races; rider-barn are 2-for-8 this meet; the lack of early speed in this event could hurt her late kick, but she's not meeting the most accomplished group with Wilko the only other Grade 1 winner in the field; a big effort punches her ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Don't Get Mad
Grade 2-placed runner rallied mildly over a track that favored speed on San Felipe day; the added distance figures to help this late-striding colt, but the lack of pace here may hurt; rider-barn are 0-for-3 this meet and his dam was 0-for-3 in dirt routes (10K); latest was a career-best Beyer and he still found himself behind similar; others appeal more.

Allright
Lesser half of the Hines-trained entry is 0-for-3 on dirt and was up for sale 2 starts ago; turf win NoCal didn't impress; he's ambitiously placed to say the least; sire finished 2nd in the '97 SA Derby before winning the Ky. Derby; pass.

Go Coyote Joe
Is 1-for-1 in the slop and 3-0-0-0 on fast tracks; went evenly in his allowance and Grade 2 races, which is why this spot is a bit puzzling; 2-back show horse Beyered 63 in next-out BM starter allowance win; would be a major surprise.

Customer
Maiden in this overmatched coupling fired his best career start on turf, finishing behind similar on dirt 2-back at Bay Meadows; blinkers are added off recently favored defeat on SA grass; winner of debut won right back in a SA n1x alw. (95 Beyer); perhaps part of the pace.

General John B
Stakes winner exits a Grade 2 event where he was bumped early, which hurt his chances of making the front; there doesn't seem to be a lot of pace in this race, which could elevate this front runner into exotics play status; winner of latest won last Sat.'s 1M Fla. Derby (102 Beyer); his dam was 0-for-13 in dirt routes (11K); good 3rd over the track sprinting when behind Going Wild, who won the 100K Sham next out (100); barn-rider are 0-for-7 this meet; big factor if makes an easy lead.

A. P. Arrow
Lacks plenty of racing experience, but is bred for stardom, a half to Grade 1 Geri (9-19, 1.7M), who was super on both dirt and turf; his sire won the 1992 SA Derby; exiting the debut sprint, have to think the new rider (4-for-13 for the barn this meet) will have him forwardly placed in a race lacking gate speed; tough call here for a maiden with just one start; may end up being a good one, but the arrows point me elsewhere.

Wannawinemall
Grade 3-placed colt received a perfect setup in 1st start vs. winners NoCal, rallying into a hot pace, but unable to catch the winner; style suggests the longer distance the better, but see regular rider Smith siding with Giacomo; needs to up the Beyers and would prefer if this race had a lot more pace.

Buzzards Bay
Was run down late by Wannawinemall and that doesn't bode well for this trip with additional yardage; Golden Gate Derby winner posted his career best Beyer on a less than fast track; have to rank a notch below off latest.

Wilko
Declining Beyers since his shocking Breeders' Cup Juvenile upset over Afleet Alex, Sun King and Consolidator, who have all come back as 3-year-olds with giant efforts; reunites with the rider of his biggest victory after not breaking as sharply as expected in the San Felipe; we know he is better than last pair and April 1 bullet work at Hollywood suggests he's coming into this race primed for his best; the one to beat.
9MadandRabidDog
      ID: 9340615
      Sat, Apr 09, 2005, 06:42
It's a big day in horse racing people. 4 Kentucky Derby preps today. All of them can be seen on NBC starting at 4:00 Eastern.

Get out to your OTB and make some bets.
10GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, Apr 09, 2005, 13:03
More info on the Wood.

Lucas Gone Wild

"Victor Espinoza will ride Going Wild, the 5-2 second choice behind Bellamy Road, the 2-1 favorite owned by Yankees' boss George Steinbrenner.

The Lewises, who won the 1997 Derby with Silver Charm and the '99 Derby with Charismatic (Lukas was the trainer), also will be in town for the race.

"We have the Derby fever," Bob Lewis said earlier in the week. "Beverly and I have it as bad as we ever had it, and believe me, we've experienced it on numerous occasions."

In other Derby preps Saturday, the filly Sweet Catomine is the 7-5 choice over 10 male rivals in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby and Kansas City Boy is the favorite in a nine-horse field for the $500,000 Illinois Derby.

Bellamy Road may be the horse to beat in the Wood, but he's not as seasoned as the rest of the field, which includes Gotham winner Survivalist and the next four finishers: Pavo, Galloping Grocer, Naughty New Yorker and Byanosejoe. Scrappy T, third in the Whirlaway, rounds out the field of 3-year-olds.

Bellamy Road has won three of four starts, including a 153/4-length romp in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in his only race this year. It was the colt's first start for trainer Nick Zito, who replaced Michael Dickinson."

Cliff
11MadandRabidDog
      ID: 9340615
      Sat, Apr 09, 2005, 14:32
Well Goat I made my bet on the Wood.

I did All/468 and 468/all

The 4 is Survivalist, the 6 is Pavo, the 8 is Naughty New Yorker.


I started to get nervous about Naughty New Yorker so I decide to throw the other 2 closers that I could find in the exacta with him. I think it's going to be a decent paced race so one of the closers should be there. Hopefully I catch a long shot with it.

I also did an ALL/8 Exacta. The 8 is Naughty New Yorker. There's something making me nervous about Naughty New Yorker. I think it's his speed figure for his last race he might be out of form or something and they are shooting him with Lasix to make him run again. And these are probably the best horses he has run against and he always comes up short. Whatever it is I have some other options in my bet now.

I think I'm gonna hit that bet but I don't know if I will make anything. I might hit the bet and lose money.
12MadandRabidDog
      ID: 9340615
      Sat, Apr 09, 2005, 14:34
Survivalist beat 5 of these horses in the Gotham in his last race. He is royally bred and has a great trainer Shug McGaughey.


Pavo has Jerry Bailey riding him. Baileys' horses are always dangerous.
13 Jerry
      ID: 31422513
      Fri, May 05, 2006, 15:22
Can anyone please help me understand the hierarchy of races. I know maidens are the lowest and stakes the best but what are N1X or N3L races? where do they fit in on this list? are they superior class races to allowences or claimers?

Please help me,

Thanks

Jerry
14GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Fri, May 05, 2006, 16:30
Easiest way to figure them all out is to look at the purse value.

That will give you a good feel for any given race day.

Limited / special allowances tend to fall toward the lower end of the spectrum.
That said, what they do, is give the trainer a race to put a low end horse in without having to put them in a claiming race and losing them.

Hope this helps.

They fit between the claimers and class races.

Cliff
15StLCards
      Leader
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, May 05, 2006, 16:52
Even in stakes you have different classes. For instances this weekends ky derby race is a Grade 1 (G1). Next lower is a G2 and then a G3 and then comes unlisted stakes races.

N3L stands for Non-Winner of 3 races lifetime. This is a conditional allowance race, meaning there are cetain restrictions to being able to enter a horse (in this case it can't have won 3 races).

An N1x would mean non winner of 1 except for a maiden or claimer race, maybe some others as well.

Maiden would be first, claimer next, restricted allowance, open allowane, stakes, and then Graded stakes. Could be some I'm missing but that gives you a good idea I think.
16GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, May 06, 2006, 17:51
Based on the current odds, sure looks like there is a lot of money to be made on the Kentucky Derby.

Barbaro is the current favorite at 6-1.

Brother Derek at 8-1
Lawyer Ron at 9-1

Cliff
17jimmy
      Dude
      ID: 349182621
      Sat, May 06, 2006, 18:18
Thankful I put my money on Barbaro!
18GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, May 06, 2006, 18:33
Nice bet

And not bad at 14.20 for a morning line 2nd choice.

8 and 6 are great for place and show money also.

and of course, with the two long shots in there, the exacta and tri were big.

Cliff
19jimmy
      Dude
      ID: 349182621
      Sat, May 06, 2006, 18:38
Of the $60 I had on Barbaro, $40 was to win, had no ideal the $2 exacta would have paid that much. Had $2 exacta 8/2+4+11+13+16.


20GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, May 06, 2006, 18:44
Great Day.
Especially at about 13 - 1 for your overall bets.

Nice.

Cliff
21jimmy
      Dude
      ID: 349182621
      Sat, May 06, 2006, 20:19
Just got back from the local dog track, $900 cash. Obviously, I had more confidence in Barbaro to win and not in my choice of 2nd or 3rd, for the fact that I had asked my son to pick three horses out by name (Steppenwolfer, Bluegrass Cat, Lawyer Ron), and I would place a win on each (and a show too), it's the fact he had picked Bluegrass Cat, that I included him in the exacta, glad I did.

I didn't even bother to play a trifecta.
22GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, May 06, 2006, 21:03
too bad, 11k plus
23Peter N.
      ID: 424551911
      Sat, May 20, 2006, 21:01
Wow, no talk of the race today? In pursuit of the Triple Crown, Barbaro suffers a possible life-threating injury with two fractures in his right rear leg. His career is definitely over. Sad event overshadows a nice run by Bernardini.
24jimmy
      Dude
      ID: 349182621
      Sat, May 20, 2006, 21:30
I'm still in denial of what I saw, complete disbelief. In my lifetime I've not witness the best horse and the betting choice of a Triple Crown Race have such a tragic encounter. I feel the start of the race had a flaw, most often once the last horse goes in, the race start almost immediately, why the delay, then Barbaro breaks out, then the unthinkable happens. Sadly, it may be a foregone conclusion of what news lies ahead. :(
25louky
      ID: 1326296
      Sun, May 21, 2006, 02:49
Saddest thing I've ever seen on the track.
26Rendle
      Donor
      ID: 014815714
      Mon, Jan 29, 2007, 15:45
Barbaro Euthanized Monday Morning

sad stuff
27Oopsy Daisy
      ID: 299161612
      Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 15:57
Get a different BUTT.
Horse Racing Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread




Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)

Name:
Email:
Message:
Click here to create and insert a link
Click here to insert a block of hidden (spoiler) text
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)


Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour11
Last 24 hours11
Last 7 days22
Last 30 days1515
Since Mar 1, 20071142725842