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Subject: 2002 Contest Site is up
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 13:59
http://rotoguru1.com/madness/
I think I have it all debugged, but let me know if something looks awry.
If you've entered (and figured out) this contest before, then there isn't much to do until after the brackets are announced. Feel free to register now, however.
If you aren't familiar with this contest, then some advance preparation is recommended. The scoring format is probably more complex (on the surface, at least) than any other tournament contest you've ever seen. But those who have figured it out generally agree that it is the most interesting format around, and it is designed to keep you involved all the way to (and through) the Final Four.
Most contests reward you for picking the correct winners. This does that to a degree, and also rewards you for picking the correct losers. In this format, the key is to select teams relative to their seed-based expectations. You get a much better reward for picking a #15 seed that advances one round than you do for picking a #1 seed that loses in the Elite 8 round. That's because a #15 seed is expected to lose right away, so even one win is a great result. But a top seed is expected to make it into the Final Four, and failure to get there is a relative disappointment.
In order to familiarize yourself with the scoring concept, I recommend a few resources:
1. Historical Returns - this page shows the distribution of actual results for the tournament since 1985, when the field was expanded to 64 teams. Perhaps the most enlightening table is the one on the bottom right of that page, which shows the best result that a team can have, based on the round of exit. Again, using the above example, a #15 seed which exits in round 2 will earn a return of 15, while a #1 seed losing in Round 4 will only generate a return of 7 (or less, if they face previous upset winners).
2. Scoring Simulator - fill in a bracket in the traditional way, and then generate the scoring results using this contest's system. Before the brackets are announced, this is loaded with last year's teams. It will be updated shortly after the 2002 field is announced.
3. Check out some of the threads in this forum. I've left those which offered some prior year guidance that is still relevant.
4. Raise questions here.
Now that this contest is in its 5th year, I realize that it takes some thought to understand the system. But once you figure it out, you'll realize that it is actually very intuitive. Invite some friends or co-workers to enter. You can even set up a separate division just for them.
Enjoy. |
| 1 | Twarpy
Leader
ID: 3144915
Thu, Mar 07, 2002, 17:19
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Guru, one thing when you click login on the Market Madness site, you get:
2002 Market Madness Contest Log In
This contest site is currently being updated for 2002.
Please check back in early March for news about this year's contest.
Just a minor inconvience at the moment. Other than that, everything looks great.
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| 2 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 07, 2002, 18:43
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Fixed. Thanks.
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| 3 | Smith32
ID: 1927913
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 13:14
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Guru,
I love this contest and am again looking forward to it. One bit of statistical curiousity I have is the performance of the various conference baskets, i.e, have some conferences been particular over or underachievers. I like the "basket" concept, and would be interested if you have any data on the conferences like you have historical stats for each seed basket. Just a thought. Thanks for providing this contest, a great alternative to filling out the bracket sheet.
Smith32
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| 4 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 16:17
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Good question, but I haven't kept records of individual conference results - or even individual team results, for that matter. My statistical database only has data by seed.
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| 5 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 21:43
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Everything is set. Brackets are loaded, and prices are posted.
Top team prices are G$25 for each of Duke and Kansas. The other #1 seeds are G$20 for Maryland, and G$18 for Cincy.
The most expensive conference basket is the Big 12, with 6 teams combining for a price of G$57. The SEC is close behind with 6 teams at G$53. The ACC has only 4 teams, but costs G$51, a by product of having two top seeds.
You have until Thursday's first tipoff to make your picks. If you set your picks now, they can be changed at any time until the freeze.
Have fun!
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| 6 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 231045110
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 00:42
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Guru -
In your seed pairing history, you claim 4 seeds win only 19% of the time in the 1st round. I believe you mean 79%, but just in case, I'm shorting the 4 basket!
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| 7 | Raz
ID: 35949280
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 01:01
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And I'm trying to figure out who wins the other 60% of those 4 seed/13 seed games. They'd make a great long!
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| 8 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 08:50
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Doh! That's what happens when I manually update the tables, rather than letting the computer do it.
I corrected it. Thanks.
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| 9 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 13, 2002, 15:43
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There are over 700 registrations as of 3pm Wednesday afternoon. But only 250 sets of picks have been recorded.
Remember to get your picks in. If you have a late change of heart, you can easily change your picks any time until the opening tipoff on Thursday.
Don't let a last minute internet glitch interfere with your entry!
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| 10 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Wed, Mar 13, 2002, 15:53
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Cool clock, guru!
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| 12 | Pops
ID: 9253149
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 09:53
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Here's me calling my shots...
Either Central Conn/Fla Atlantic will pull off an upset in the south...
3 #6 seeds make it to the sweet 16...
Illinois Chicago gives Oklahoma what will be a largely unforseen scare...
all 4 #10 seeds win first round games...
And finally, the #3 seed basket short, will be the top short basket in all of market madness!
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| 13 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 10:57
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With about 1-1/2 hours to go, there are about 890 contest registrations. Yet only 377 have submitted a set of picks.
Last year, there were 922 registrations, of which 610 followed through to submit picks.
Not sure how to interpret that.
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| 14 | Strike One
ID: 356372421
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 11:26
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just entered two sets of picks for my two entries. only 25 minutes until coverage begins, and i'm already going mad.
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| 15 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 12:07
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Up to 445 submissions as of noon. Lots of procrastinators.
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| 16 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 12:38
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My bad. The spreadsheet that I was using to count the submissions had an incorrect formula.
There are actually 614 valid submissions out of 938 total registrations. That is very similar to last year's numbers. For some reason, about one-third of all registrants never submit picks.
Of the 614 valid entries, my preliminary count is that 114 are from GuruPatrons. (That number will probably climb a little upon further audit.) That only matters for the "consolation" prizes. Everyone is eligible for the two overall prizes.
If anyone had server problems that prevented your ability to submit or update picks, please let me know ASAP.
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| 17 | Spyce
ID: 81144414
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 13:13
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I was besieged at work this morning and had to race to get my picks in - was the cut-off 12:00, 12:10 (first tip IIRC), a little later (some squish time for clowns like me).
If a cut-off was missed will scores be tracked (even if teams not eligible for prizes)?
Also, i asked for a confirmation email but have yet to receive one - is this expected?
Great game, great site!
My $0.02 - Long Xavier, Marquette, Miss St., Cincy (champs)
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| 18 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 13:23
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Cutoff was scheduled for 12:20, but since the first tipoff didn't occur until 12:25, you could save your picks until then. At that time, the "Store picks" button disappeared.
To ensure that your picks are included, just go to the contest site, log in, and click on the "My Score" link. If you see your picks listed, you're in. If you don't, then your picks didn't get saved for some reason.
Regarding email confirmations, the server was not responding properly to email requests this morning (I don't know why - but I mentioned this in the open news page.) Thus, I doubt if any confirmation emails went through. At least Murhpy's Law only struck an ancillary aspect of the contest site.
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| 19 | KTxGOD
ID: 47149718
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 19:26
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What exactly are basket units?
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| 20 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 21:09
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You can take all 4 teams of the same seed at once in a basket. You can do the same with an entire conference.
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| 21 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Fri, Mar 15, 2002, 13:05
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I just love playing Guru's games. Where else can you see negative scores in a game? Guru developed games and golf. But at least in golf having a negative score is the objective!
My only question now, is how low will I go......
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Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
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