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Subject: Ask Guru
Posted by: The Beezer
- Leader [191202817] Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 14:56
Thought I'd fire up a thread for questions regarding this year's contest. Once again, this looks like the best contest around. Thanks!
Guru, was any thought given to making Gonzaga cost more with their near-universal underseeding in the tourney? Looks like a big bargain from here, since for only $5 you have a near-lock (IMO, of course) for a $6 return, and a good shot at $14 in the second round based on their past history?. Or are all 3-16 seeds always the same price?
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| 1 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 15:43
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I've always (I think) kept the pricing for 3-16 seeds pretty standardized. My thinking is that the objective of the contest is to pick the teams that will outperform their seed expectations. I'd rather price based on historical norms, and then let contestants make those judgments.
I'm not at all convinced that Gonzaga looks particulary attractive. Granted, they should recover their cost in the first round. But they'll probably need to beat Arizona to generate any additional points. That's still a tall order, and if you pick that upset correctly, you deserve a reward.
Frankly, small variations in prices tend not to make much difference in the final results. I do sometimes fiddle with #1 and #2 seeds to make it a bit more expensive to load up on the pre-tourney favorites, or to reflect strength of bracket, but beyond those seeds, a small variation in pricing really isn't going to matter much.
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| 2 | culdeus
Donor
ID: 292231023
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 23:31
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Crazy game Guru. Can I clear up one thing. Do you have to pick anything from the basket section?
I think for my first time trying this game out I won't pick out of that group just to keep it simple. But if it is a big disadvantage to pass on all that I'll do a little work that way.
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| 3 | Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 46132213
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 23:36
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You don't have to make any basket picks; Guru added that last season (or the one before?) to make it more interesting. I generally look to basket picks when it seems at least two of the same seeds are seeded too high or low (IMO). For instance, if you think that there is a team there who shouldn't be look at the other teams of the same seed to see if you should short them.
pd
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| 4 | TBRaiders
Sustainer
ID: 4111151621
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 00:16
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For one team I am not using any baskets. For the other two, I am mixing it up a bit.
I am biased when it comes to the Pac-Ten, but I like where most were placed in the brackets and will go long on the Pac-Ten. Arizona is the only number 3 seed I like, but they have to play Gonzaga in the second round and they are a fun team to root for come tourney time. I don't like Georgia or Pitt, but can't see either losing before the Sweet 16 and that is all that is really expected from a 3 seed. A couple of the number 8's look good this year, of course they have to play the number ones in round 2, but maybe we will see some surprises.
Gonzaga has already been mentioned, but I like Texas Tech as a 6 seed as well. Call me crazy, but I like Mich ST as a 10 seed and expect them to be playing Tech in the Sweet 16. Then again, with my history of picks, they will both probably lose in the 1st round.
I keep simulating games and don't seem to be giving much respect to Conf USA or the Big East. Looks like I will be shorting both. The Big 10 isn't coming out so great either, but they have killed me in seasons past when I have shortchanged them.
I know I am crazy when I am liking the #4 seed. The jinx has to end sometime, eh?
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| 5 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 231045110
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 00:23
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Last year, 6 of the top 11 longs and 6 of the top 6 shorts were baskets.
If you think this wasn't a fluke, it suggests the winner will have considered baskets. Because of the number of teams, they will obviously tend to be at the extremes. You can either go very very right or very very wrong. It seems to me you must take a chance, however.
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| 6 | TBRaiders
Sustainer
ID: 4111151621
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 00:56
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I am sure that I read somewhere that, like last year, there will be a winner for teams that don't use baskets as well as an overall winner. Obviously, you will be able to score higher with baskets and I think Guru added this for the "purists" who think baskets added to much luck into the equation.
Just think, if I long the Pac-Ten, USC, and UCLA with one of those two teams beating the other in the final four and then going on to win it all (This is my dream-world, btw). What a lot of points it would turn out to be.
We shall see, but I think longing or shorting the ACC will turn out to be key for winning it all. With two number ones, and both team favorites to make it to the final 4, it will be huge. My best scenario, I have the ACC at +54, worst case scenario...well, I might just be shorting them.
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| 7 | Raz
ID: 35949280
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 00:57
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And don't forget that there are 2 competitions going on here (sort of) -- one for the overall winner and one for the basket-free winner. I myself will be making 1 entry without baskets, and then 2 entries including baskets.
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| 8 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 08:46
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What they said.
In yesterday's blurb, I mentioned that in the past two years, conference baskets have tended to be at the extremes of the return spectrum. See the link provided by biliruben for the details. To place well overall, you'll need to get some of these right. Last year's winner had 8 baskets in his short side, and six in the long side. Most of them were on the correct side, as well.
But you can play without basket units, and stick with teams. Here is a look at last year's best entry without any baskets.
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| 9 | culdeus
Donor
ID: 46046416
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 08:59
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Thanks for the help. Been playing with the simulator and it helps too. For those shying away from all the clicking a case study might show the upside.
A sleeper I like was Ohio State. However them dying in the EE would net me hardly anything for the risk involved. 10 bucks for the absolute best case.
Funny, in every screen I run agressive or conservative Big 12 is always towards the top and SEC is always towards the bottom.
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| 10 | EdS
Leader
ID: 541212511
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 15:21
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Question,
In the simulator the left hand column is titled "Long Teams". The very first team would be the best "Long" according to my bracket and the last team would be the best "Short" according to my bracket?
EdS
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| 11 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 15:48
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Yep.
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| 14 | KTxGOD
ID: 47149718
Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 19:26
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What are Basket Units? Sorry for posting in two threads... didnt see this one until after i posted in the other
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| 15 | Farn
ID: 2310151714
Fri, Mar 15, 2002, 21:59
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what are the Guru's results so far in the tourney?
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| 16 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 15, 2002, 22:09
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lackluster
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| 17 | Raz
ID: 35949280
Sat, Mar 16, 2002, 18:18
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How come conference baskets aren't receiving any points today? I hope I'm not just being premature, but I would have thought they would have been updated with the other picks.
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| 18 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 16, 2002, 19:43
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Operator error.
I think everything is up to date now.
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| 19 | Smith32
ID: 321101221
Mon, Mar 18, 2002, 21:10
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Guru,
In your blurbs you have mentioned that is difficult to tell from the standings who is actually "leading" the market madness contest. Are their any entries that, in your opinion, look particularly strong at this point? I feel like I am doing well, but wonder which other entries might be most competitive in the end. Any comments you (or other gurupies) might have would be appreciated. Love this game. Thanks.
Smith32
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| 20 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Mon, Mar 18, 2002, 22:19
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It's easier to tell who the weak teams at the top are than to tell who will end up at the top. IMO Anyone who shorted the 3 and especially the 2 and 1 seed baskets is in for a world of hurt. Remember, each win that a shorted team is going to subtract from the score. The #1's that are left are likely to keep winning, and also IMO, one of them will take it all.
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| 21 | kev
ID: 292571412
Mon, Mar 18, 2002, 23:09
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Ender, while shorting all 3 would end up in a world of hurt (hard to say all 4 final four teams would be a 4 seed or lower), I dont think shorting the 1 seed basket is all that bad. Cincy is already out, and I happen to think Oregeon will beat Kanas in the Elite 8, so while Duke/Maryland could meet in the final, shorting the 1 basket still seemed like the correct move.
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| 22 | azdbacker
Donor
ID: 1832261
Tue, Mar 19, 2002, 01:19
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Ender, I don't see why you think those that shorted the 2s and 3s are in trouble. There are only 6 left, and 2 of them have to lose this next round and I would be surprised if at least 3 didn't. I don't see a single 2 or 3 that I think has a good chance of being in the final 4, with the possible exception of Oklahoma, but I expect UCLA to come out of the West now.
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| 23 | Ender
ID: 52438315
Tue, Mar 19, 2002, 09:12
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I look at it this way:
The 2's are supposed to make the elite 8. I expect that the remaining ones will. You may not, but that's ok, that's probably why you shorted them. You're point about the 3's is true, but I mainly speaking about the 1's and 2's. If you short the 2's and 3 of them get where they were seeded to get, what did you gain by shorting them? Same with the 1's? And I honestly think there will be 3 #1's in the Final 4, and 2 #1's in the championship game.
I think it basically comes down to this, for each game that the top 3 seeds wins, the score for the people that shorted them goes down. Consequently, a lot of teams towards the top of the standings right now run a high risk of their scores dropping, rather than increasing. I could be wrong if the seeding falls apart this weekend, but I don't think I am.
This is all jus my opinion, and should be taken with less than a grain of salt as I am not even in contention (unless Duke and Maryland play for the title, and Missouri hangs around a bit longer :)
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| 24 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 19, 2002, 09:22
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Actually, I agree with both Ender and kev. They aren't necessarily contradictory viewpoints.
Shorting the #1 seed basket could easily turn out to be a good move. Cincy has already lost. Suppose one other #1 seed fails to survive the regionals, leaving two to advance to the Final Four. Depending on how the games go, the #1 seed basket could turn out to be among the better shorts - while at the same time, it could also be one of the worst returning shorts from this point forward. That's because a lot of the benefit (the G$88 gained for shorting it, plus the benefit of Cincy's loss) have already been "booked", while the cost of continued wins by the other teams has yet to emerge. Barring a complete meltdown by #1 seeds, shorting the #1 basket is likely to be expensive from this point forward, regardless of whether it works out to be a good short in the totality of the tourney.
Smith32 - yours is one that looks to be in good shape, for sure. If the tourney plays out according to your wishes (particularly for Illinois and UCLA), then you'll be tough to catch.
On the other hand, nine of your longs could disappear in the next round. Not likely, but not totally out of the question, either.
Looking strictly at long and short counts doesn't give a very complete picture. The quality and composition of those positions is critical.
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| 25 | Gman15
Leader
ID: 47645219
Thu, Mar 21, 2002, 22:04
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IU blowing up the brackets! GO HOOSIERS!
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| 26 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Thu, Mar 21, 2002, 22:14
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Hoosier brand crow tastes particularly bitter. Kudos to the #1 seed shorters.
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| 27 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 09:55
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I posted some interesting seed-related perspectives on last night's upsets in today's (3/22) blurb. Rather than repeat them here, I'll just direct you there.
Want an entry to watch? PJ's Revenge is currently ranked 3rd overall, just 12 out of the lead. His longs include Missouri, Kent State, #10 seed basket, #12 seed basket, and the Big 12. If both Mizzou and Kent State advance to the Final Four, he'll collect 560 bonus points! The only other entrant with all five of those longs is Rainman, but he is currently more than 200 points back.
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| 28 | OSU Rules
Leader
ID: 15372315
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 14:03
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On the other hand, PJ has Indiana shorted twice and Rainman has Indiana shorted 3 times. It appears, the top of the standings will be very dependent on the outcome of the Indiana-Kent St. game.
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| 29 | Pops
ID: 12132221
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 21:13
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Argh..
Unless Texas can sustain this comeback against Oregon, my #1 ranking should disappear after tonight.
It was sweet for the week that it lasted anyways :-).
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| 30 | culdeus
Donor
ID: 54135323
Sun, Mar 24, 2002, 16:39
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I'm going to find a hole to crawl in. Wonder if she's eligible for a prize. Guru?
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| 31 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 24, 2002, 16:43
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Yes. Spouses of GuruPatrons qualify as GuruPatrons.
Of course, if she wins it all, even that doesn't matter.
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| 32 | culdeus
Donor
ID: 54135323
Sun, Mar 24, 2002, 19:30
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Basically KU or OU wins and she gets it right?
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| 33 | Smith32
ID: 432262420
Sun, Mar 24, 2002, 20:33
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Reminds me of when Guru's daughter cleaned up a few years back. Guru, is there any way you can run each of the 8 possible scenarios and publish who would win each contest for each outcome? Probably is a lot of work, but if you have an easy way to do it, I'm sure some of us would be interested. I'm pretty sure I've been mathematically eliminated anyway. Thanks.
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| 34 | The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Sun, Mar 24, 2002, 22:38
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I believe knuss has wrapped up the win for best picks not counting basket units. knuss was also the only person to long all 4 of the Final Four teams, which is impressive in its own right. Wow!
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| 35 | Sludge
Sustainer
ID: 24914721
Sun, Mar 24, 2002, 22:56
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Smith - He wouldn't do it for Pickoff, I somehow doubt he'll do it for Madness.
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| 36 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 10:55
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Sludge - how was it even possible for Pickoff? The payoffs and picks were all unsettled until after the freeze. And the picks were undisclosed during the week. Am I missing something?
This is different, as all of the info is publicly available already, and the point possibilities are "easily" determinable. Pre-announcing the results cannot influence the outcome - only the anxiety. Although I haven't done this in the past, I may do it in the next day or so.
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| 37 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 11:53
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Here is my unofficial projection:
Including basket units
If Oklahoma beats Indiana, then Mrs. Culdeus wins, regardless of the outcome of the other games.
If Indiana wins it all, then oz55555 wins, regardless of the opponent.
If Maryland beats Indiana, then blockaa wins.
If Kansas beats Indiana, then jreese wins.
Excluding basket units
knuss wins.
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| 38 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 12:00
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Here are the winning totals I get for the 8 possible outcomes (listed by final game result). It's always possible that I miscalculated, so feel free to check my arithmetic.Final game winner score
MD beats IN: blockaa 477
IN beats MD: oz55555 555
(interesting series of 5s, esp. given Indy's seed!)
MD beats OK: Mrs. Culdeus 546
OK beats MD: Mrs. Culdeus 613
KS beats IN: jreese 545
IN beats KS: oz55555 555
KS beats OK: Mrs. Culdeus 587
OK beats KS: Mrs. Culdeus 613
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| 39 | OSU Rules
Leader
ID: 15372315
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 12:01
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Guru- I was wondering if you could provide some indication in the standings of who is a GuruPatron. Perhaps you could add it to the pull down menu where you select top 50 or all entries.
Thanks.
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| 40 | Sludge
Sustainer
ID: 54131712
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 12:04
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Ya know, now that I think about it, I think it was the Market Madness contest and not Pickoff. I was in the running for last place with one of my entries (I think it was two years ago). Pickoff I always did my own best-case/worst-case analysis,
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| 41 | HooeyPooey
ID: 2911591710
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 12:45
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I'm hoping for a repeat run for last place, but I don't know how feasible that is, being G$100 out of last with 7 short units remaining.
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| 42 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 12:58
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Let's invite these 4 people to supply bios, so we can have a rooting interest.
Toral
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| 43 | OSU Rules
Leader
ID: 15372315
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 13:55
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Thanks for the GuruPatron sort. As usual your response time is outstanding.
I am holding on to hope for a Memento DVD.
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| 44 | culdeus
Donor
ID: 46046416
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 14:32
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The Mrs. doesn't want to be the first one to post the bio. Shy I guess.
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| 45 | Sludge
Sustainer
ID: 54131712
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 14:41
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Bio, schmio. Anybody who beat Duke gets my vote. Go oz!
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| 46 | mrsculdeus
ID: 541152147
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 22:40
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Sorry, Sludge. I understand your anti-Duke bias, but I'm afraid Indiana has achieved all the glory possible for this year. I think you should be pleased with the fall of the Dukies this early in the tournament.
For the poster who invited bios: I am a first year teacher of 7th and 8th grade English. Don't pity me- I really do love my job! Of course, I am also a basketball fan and I love March Madness, but my number one allegiance is to the Mavs. This contest has been much more fun than ordinary brackets, especially since Culdeus himself is besting me in regular, boring, unnecessarily punitive brackets. :-) Thanks for all your work, Guru. I can't wait to see how it all ends.
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| 47 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Wed, Mar 27, 2002, 23:18
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Hmmmm, a fellow 8th grade teacher (math here) and someone who has Oklahoma picked to beat IU? You've got my support :)
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| 48 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 21:09
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Valiant effort, Mrs. Culdeus. Who'd have thunk Indiana would make it to the final game?
So close, and yet, so far....
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| 49 | Gman15
Leader
ID: 47645219
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 23:06
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Sorry Ender - never say die for IU. That 6th banner will look great in Assembly Hall!
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| 50 | mrsculdeus
ID: 2910421619
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 23:32
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Thanks, Guru. Despite my considerable disappointment for my chances of victory, it's hard not to be at least a little happy for the underdog. Nice for Mr. Davis to shake another Knight ghost. This is why we love March Madness, right? As every losing coach says, there's always next year.
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| 51 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 282223017
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 00:26
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I now feel really smart for taking a 5th seed long, but also feeling quite stupid for shorting Indiana.
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| 52 | Chuck R
ID: 521531711
Wed, Mar 19, 2003, 17:24
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guru straight up who do u think will win all the divisions (midwest west east south and championship?
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