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Subject: Help understanding winnings...
Posted by: Sludge
- [59228918] Thu, Mar 09, 18:37
I think I have it down, but I just wanted to double check.
If a team you shorted makes it to the final four or wins the championship, you actually LOSE money on the bonus, correct?
A 16 seed you short will never gain any money for you, correct? In other words, the only way to ever make money on a 16 seed is to have them long. That's the way I read the rules. Am I missing something? |
1 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 09, 20:13
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Correct.
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2 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 09, 20:16
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In fact, no team seeded 9-16 can make you any extra money as a short (other than receiving the price for selling). The best thing that can happen if you short a team seeded 9-16 is that the team immediately loses, in which case the first game produces a zero.
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3 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 09, 20:18
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If you want a more varied example of how the scoring works, try selecting an entry using last year's teams and prices. Then click on "My Score", and you'll see how that set of teams would have fared in last year's contest.
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4 | Ref
ID: 4409319 Mon, Mar 13, 16:18
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Wow, Guru, I read your rules and that is pretty deep. I need to login and try some stuff. This basket stuff kinda threw me--but let me try and figure it out before I ask specific questions. In one office pool I am in, we get points based on rounds + seeding differential. If the favorite wins and you predict that you get that round's points. If your underdog wins, you get the round's points + difference in seedings. If you miss you get nothing. I think, your way resembles that in just a small way--yet not even close to being the same. I'll try and digest it and give it a shot at least.
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5 | louky
ID: 58157118 Mon, Mar 13, 18:30
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guru, maybe i'm not looking in the right place, but i would like to try the practice thing based on last years tourny. haven't figured out how to do that yet?????
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6 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Mar 13, 20:12
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Too late to practice. I now have this year's data loaded. I only had last year's data up while I was waiting for the brackets to be announced.
If you want to look at some results from last year, check the 1999 Standings, and drill down to some individual entry links to see the scoring summaries. Last year there were no basket units, only teams.
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7 | Josie
ID: 380192917 Mon, Mar 13, 20:35
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That bonus is really a killer, Ohio St. killed me last year, had them losing in the first round last year in almost all my pools and I shorted them too. Cost me some serious money($G and real money)
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8 | Chuckers
ID: 11012822 Mon, Mar 13, 20:54
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Guru- You said above: "no team seeded 9-16 can make you any extra money as a short (other than receiving the price for selling)."
Is this true of the basket seeds too. Is shorting a basket seed #11 just a waste?
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10 | Species
ID: 714729 Tue, Mar 14, 10:13
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Chuckers - Yes. If anything you run a big risk of having an 11-seed or two (and there are 2 that could post 1st-rd upsets) WIN, and thus with every win the losses pile up. Remember, the whole premise of the game is to "short" those who will not live up to their seeding and "long" those will overachieve.
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11 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Tue, Mar 14, 12:06
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A seed basket is just the sum of the individual teams at that seed.
However, the price for selling a seed basket is four times the price for selling an individual seed. Selling a #9 or #10 seed basket raises cash of G$24. That means the best net return is also G$24. But G$24 isn't a bad net return for a short.
Of course, to net G$24, all four teams have to lose their first round game. Last year, 9's and 10's went 8-0 in round 1!
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12 | Qman
ID: 16038299 Tue, Mar 14, 13:22
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This is the first time I try this. Now, does it help to have a lot of residual money, or should that be used for longing teams.
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13 | Species
ID: 714729 Tue, Mar 14, 13:33
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Qman - Leftover money seems okay. The risk is that if you use more money to long some favorites you run the risk of losing money or gaining very little return for the risk. Conversely, you long some cheap teams the risk is low but the reward is great. I think many teams will have leftover cash.
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14 | Tosh
ID: 1154102 Tue, Mar 14, 13:46
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I have a question as well ...
Suppose I like Oregon (#7 seed) getting to the final 8. But I think all the other #7 seeds will get upset in the first round. Would I still want to short the 7 seed basket? Or go long? What if I only think Oregon will get to the final 16?
OK maybe one more question (And I'll use the Pac-10 again)...
If I think Stanford gets to the Final 4, but Ariz., Oregon, and UCLA all lose early. Would I want to go long or short on the Pac-10 basket?
Thanks! Great Game Guru!
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15 | BillB
ID: 36048317 Tue, Mar 14, 15:01
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Tosh, you can short the #7 seed basket and go long on Oregon...similiarly you'd short the Pac-10 basket and go long on the Cardinal.
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16 | Ref
ID: 81261214 Tue, Mar 14, 17:24
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Just read your daily blurb, Guru, now I'm even more confused. I think I'll just jump into the game and give it my best shot. I'll stink it up this year, but at least I'll know what's up for next year.
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17 | Ref
ID: 81261214 Tue, Mar 14, 17:52
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OK, let me get this straight. Am I understanding that you only make 20 picks total--10 short and 10 long and the price must equal? You don't select every team? Wow this is a pretty comprehensive undertaking--it is, well...MADNESS!!! Ok, here I go!
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18 | bomber
ID: 12211414 Tue, Mar 14, 18:03
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Ref,
The value of your ten longs do not have to equal the value of your ten shorts. You raise cash to buy your longs by shorting teams (or baskets). You can have cash left over after buying all of your teams. Also, you are required to short ten teams, but you can go long on up to ten team.
Hope this helps
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19 | spanky
ID: 4513741 Wed, Mar 15, 02:22
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would it make sense to long a team, that you have already longed in a seed basket??
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20 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 15, 07:13
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Sure, if that team does well. Read my 3/14 blurb. For 1999, three of the best units to be long were Ohio State, the Big 10, and the #4 seeds. Ohio State was represented 3 times.
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21 | spanky
ID: 11152103 Wed, Mar 15, 07:31
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thanx, yea...i think im figurin this out...ive made alot of changes from my original picks, after reading the blurb, and the threads, it cleared everything up a bit =o) short long short long...arrghh, my head is spinnin,
oh what fun it is to be a march madness virgin!! teehee =oP
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22 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 15, 08:05
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One "cheat sheet" that may help simplify evaluation is the table that shows the best possible return for each seed by "survival round". It appears in the historical stats page at RotoGuru, but I'll copy it here:
Best Potential G$ Return by Seed |
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Seed | Round in which Team Loses | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | win | 1 | -16 | -15 | -6 | 7 | 38 | 54 | 80 | 2 | -15 | -13 | -3 | 26 | 62 | 78 | 114 | 3 | -14 | -11 | 14 | 29 | 75 | 91 | 137 | 4 | -13 | -9 | 16 | 32 | 87 | 103 | 159 | 5 | -12 | 5 | 18 | 34 | 99 | 115 | 181 | 6 | -11 | 6 | 20 | 35 | 111 | 127 | 203 | 7 | -10 | 7 | 22 | 36 | 122 | 138 | 224 | 8 | -9 | 8 | 24 | 37 | 132 | 148 | 244 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 38 | 143 | 159 | 265 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 39 | 155 | 171 | 287 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 40 | 166 | 182 | 308 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 41 | 176 | 192 | 328 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 42 | 187 | 203 | 349 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 43 | 199 | 215 | 371 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 45 | 211 | 227 | 393 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 32 | 48 | 224 | 240 | 416 |
For example, as a #2 seed, Cincy cannot win more than -$3 unless they unless they survuve to the final 8 teams (round 4). If they win 2, then lose (presumably to OSU), their winnings are a net -$3. SInce they cost $8, if you go long, you lose $11 total (you pay $8 to lose 3 more), but if you short them you gain $11. If they make it into the elite 8, then they could win as much as $26.
The table shows the maximum potential, which assumes that each team plays the best seed possible. To the extent that underdogs advance, the numbers decline. (If Cincy beats a #7 in round 2, they win $10, but if they beat a #10 seed, they only win $7 for that round).
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23 | Ref
ID: 4409319 Wed, Mar 15, 08:19
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Thanks bomber, that would have really helped me out if I could have read that before I spent hours on it (relogging several times) and figured it out on my own. I've got to go get some more longs in there sometime today. Very interesting contest. It definitely takes gurupies or someone strong in statistical data in sports to comprehend this at first (maybe both).
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24 | JeffG
ID: 492391412 Wed, Mar 15, 09:49
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If it helps don't worry about the notion that you need to be strong in statistics. Forget about scoring potentials and just break the contest down into it's basic concept, which I am oversimplifying here:
1) long: Pick the teams that will far exceed the expectations of their seed.
2) short: Pick the teams that will most fall short of the expectation of their seed.
A 2-seed is "supposed" to make it to the round of 8 and lose. If you long a 2-seed, you are expecting them to exceed this expectation (i.e. make the final-4 or beyond), if you short them, you expect them to not meet this expectation (lose in one of the first 3 rounds). If you add the teams cost to the chart above, you will see that you do not make a profit on a 2-seed until they advance past the round they are expected to fall in.
If you pick a number 1. They are "supposed" to make the final 4. So, do not go long on a 1 if you just expect them to make the final 4, they must exceed that expectation. Making the final 4 for a 1 seed just meets that expectation.
That is the concept for how teams get awarded G$. Of course your mission is to find the combination that will award you the most G$.
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25 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 15, 11:10
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Nicely summarized, JeffG.
It's easy to get bogged down in the numbers. But if you get the concept, the numbers will work out fine. If a team makes it to the round predicted by its seeding, it will come out slightly ahead. If it advances further, it will do great.
So you should buy (go long) those teams that you think will get beyond their targeted round of destruction. And you should short teams that you think will be upset.
#1 seeds are supposed to reach the final four. If they don't, they will not recover their cost.
#2 seeds are supposed to make it to the 4th round. Ditto.
#3 and #4 seeds should at least advance to the Sweet 16. If they do make it that far, they'll do OK. If they go any deeper, they'll perform great.
And teams seeded #9-16 are supposed to lose immediately. So there's no big reward for betting against them.
etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, ...
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26 | Ref
ID: 4409319 Wed, Mar 15, 12:56
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Jeff good job--wish I would have read that a couple days ago--also guru--good followup. perhaps you can direct people to those two posts in your blurb for what little time there is remaining. I got lost in all those numbers. I figured it out on my own--but it took me awhile. Thanks.
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27 | Paul's Balls
ID: 271381513 Wed, Mar 15, 14:45
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Here it is, simply put.
If you short someone it means you think they are going to do worse than their seeding suggests. If a team is seeded 9th or lower, it means they are expected to lose in the first round. So if you short a team seeded 9th or lower, you are saying they are going to do worse than lose in the first round. What does that mean exactly, they aren't going to bother showing up? Or maybe they get in a bus crash or something? Either way, even in those instances I doubt the guru will give you bonus G$ for picking those unfortunate teams. So to put it in easily understandable terms, don't short a team seeded lower than 9th.
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28 | Whitey
ID: 48018318 Wed, Mar 15, 15:01
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Is it unusual to have a lot of residual cash left over? I mean, like $140 left over. I have made my picks, but I have never played this game before so I have no idea if I am way off base or not. Any help is appreciated.
Whitey
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29 | JeffG
ID: 492391412 Wed, Mar 15, 15:20
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Whitey. Since it is likely more of the baskets will be shorted than longed on an individual entry, some extra cash is expected. My entry has $91. This residual cash is computed into your total value for the worth of your entry, as you can see by selecting "my score". Some competitors do less than 10 longs, so they may have even more residual cash, but will not get any extra scoring opportunities on those not longed.
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30 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 15, 16:22
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Here are some early stats. Out of roughly 400 entries so far,
25% have no residual cash, 25% have between G$1 and G$10, 25% have between G$10 and G$50, and 10% have more than G$100.
There is nothing wrong with having cash, but I would think you would want to be long 10 teams (if you have cash remaining). Cash has no downside, but also no upside. If you can't decide who to pick for the last few longs, pick a few cheap longshots. The downside risk is minimal, and the upside is huge.
Last year's stats aren't meaningful, because there were no basket units last year.
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31 | Clank
ID: 14050298 Wed, Mar 15, 16:40
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Guru,
Are those numbers out of complete entries? If so what do the other 15% have in cash? I agree with you with the cheap longshots. I have been going over my picks again and have picked a few longshots.
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32 | bookie
ID: 0063116 Wed, Mar 15, 16:43
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I know it's in the rules, but could someone quickly break down a shorting the basket scenerio. Say I short the 2 seeds and one goes out in each of the 2,4 and 5 rounds while one loses in the championship. What is the net result... Positive or negative?
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33 | JeffG
ID: 560543112 Wed, Mar 15, 21:28
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I'll take a shot at it bookie, using the best potential matrix above:
Total investment in the 2-basket -50 Team 1 loses in round two: -13 Team 2 loses in round four: +26 Team 3 loses in round five: +62 Team 4 loses in round six: +78
total is an impressive +103!
If the two seed was to beat teams coming off upsets in the later rounds, this number would be lower. (for example, if they play and beat the 6-seed instead of the 3-seed in round 3)
+40 of this is your making it to the final four bonus for two 2-seeds.
Seed twos are "expected" to lose in round 4. Your scenario has two teams exceeding that by 1 and 2 games and one failing to meet that expectation by 2 games.
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34 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 15, 21:33
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Jeff G has the signs backwards, however. That scenario produces a great score for a long pick, but a hideous one for a short.
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35 | JeffG
ID: 560543112 Wed, Mar 15, 21:40
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OOPS. I did that based on going long on the two seed.
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36 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 15, 21:51
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Clank - the other 15% have between G$50 and G$100
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37 | flake
ID: 152391621 Thu, Mar 16, 22:24
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So tonight, I picked Gonzaga (Long) to beat Louisville (Shorted). I earn $10 for the win (less the $6 purchase price), and Louisville, the #7 seed earns me what for predicting them "Short"? $10 bucks G$? Less the $3 bucks I paid for the short?
I'm up $11 on the two picks and let Gonzaga ride ..
Right? What is my next unit move?
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38 | Guru
ID: 330592710 Fri, Mar 17, 07:19
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Not quite. You collect the price of a short, so shorting Louisville nets you $13 ($3 + $10). You're up $17 so far.
I don't understand what you mean by "my next unit move". however. Once the tournament starts, all picks are locked in, and there are no "moves".
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39 | JeffG
ID: 492391412 Fri, Mar 17, 09:19
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Flake: If you mean what will the Zags earn if they beat the Storm. Since that would mean beating a 2-seed, they would earn G$15. It is the greater of their own seed (10) or 17 minus the losers seed (17-2=15). If they lose, as the lower seed you would not lose G$.
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40 | Strike One
ID: 271552014 Sat, Mar 03, 21:45
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BUTT, this is just what i needed to understand this game, so all newcomers in 2001, i recommend that you read this thread.
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41 | The Beezer
ID: 191202817 Mon, Mar 05, 21:18
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Guru, regarding posts 1 and 2, I'm not sure if I may be missing something, but I think you can actually make money in theory on shorting a 9-12 seed. The team would have to win and have an upset in the opposing bracket. For example, say a #10 seed pulls an upset of a #7 seed (+G$10), while in the opposing bracket a #15 seed upsets a #2 seed. If the #15 seed then beats the #10 seed, the #10 seed then loses $G15, since the #15 seed gets G$15 for the win. That makes for a net of -G$5, so a short would gain you $5 plus the price of the short. Not a big deal, and I certainly wouldn't recommend betting on this in this game or with real money, but it does show that really unusual upsets can wreak havoc with what you would normally expect.
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42 | WiddleAvi Donor
ID: 464402120 Tue, Aug 12, 2003, 22:58
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http://www.lidsforyids.com
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43 | Poochie
ID: 1310242011 Thu, Nov 20, 2003, 12:27
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Wow this is nutty!
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44 | Poochie
ID: 1310242011 Thu, Nov 20, 2003, 12:28
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But interesting!!
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45 | pooch
ID: 1310242011 Thu, Nov 20, 2003, 12:41
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hmmmmm
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46 | Deadeyes
ID: 18115269 Thu, Mar 18, 2004, 09:46
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I was reading the prize information. The chances of being correct at the 10% level of the highest possible score has got to be worse than winning the lottery. seriously.
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47 | Sludge Leader
ID: 25919714 Thu, Mar 18, 2004, 10:08
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Picking at random, the chance of getting the highest possible score is 1 in 1,281,424,587,946,272. For perspective, the chance of getting each of the 63 games right in your bracket by picking at random is 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (not including the play-in game).
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48 | Sludge Leader
ID: 25919714 Thu, Mar 18, 2004, 10:28
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Where's the self-edit link on this page?
Anyway, that first number was WAY wrong. Was thinking for some reason you had 5 shorts and longs.
Make that 1 in 7,325,887,061,692,044,800,234,280.
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49 | Toral Sustainer
ID: 2111201313 Thu, Mar 18, 2004, 10:31
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Back when this thread started you had to self-edit manually, by using whiteout on your computer screen.
Should still be doable this way.
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50 | StLCards Leader
ID: 31010716 Thu, Mar 18, 2004, 10:33
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Understand winnings? LOL, I've never had that problem in this game! I think I always come up negative....and I guess my new strategy of shorting basket seeds 10-12 will probably not work too well either after reading some of the above.
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51 | Sludge Leader
ID: 25919714 Thu, Mar 18, 2004, 10:34
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And I just got a new bottle of white out at the store. Woo hoo!
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