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Subject: Early March Madness Discussion 2006
Posted by: THK
- [221132116] Wed, Mar 08, 2006, 00:32
Another March and you know what that means...the best time of the year! Selection Sunday is just a few days ago and this post by crypticfreak1 made me figure I would just start it up already...
Doesn't anyone in here feel that IOWA will do something this tourney? 22-5 record 8-3 against top 25 including wins over the other best teams in the big ten. 1-0 vs Ohio State, 1-1 vs Wisconsin, 1-1 vs Illinois. Watch out for them. If they get heated up they will go a ways in the tourney.
Over-rated:
Gonzaga
George Washington
Boston College
UCLA
Kansas
G'Town
OU
UAB
Teams I like:
UConn
Nova
Memphis
Ohio State
Texas
Pitts
LSU
West Virginia
These are just a few really early thoughts for me. I left UNC and Dook out of the conversation.
Thoughts? I am pumped as hell for Selection Sunday. Hoping my HeeLs can get a solid bracket draw.
THK
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| 31 | THK
ID: 221132116
Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 17:41
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I am backing off my Marquette pick...I just can't make up my mind. If Marquette ends up beating UCLA in the 2nd round I cry...lol
THK
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| 32 | smallwhirled
ID: 170452415
Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 17:49
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My buddy is a Kansas fan. Last year in a bar, he got up and chucked his mug into the ground when they lost to Bucknell. Unbelievable. The bar didn't even do anything about it....I just bought him a bunch of shots so he at least wouldn't have to remember the defeat for that one night. Anyways, he was literally crying back in December when his beloved Jayhawks were getting pounded by everyone.
Truly is a tale of two seasons with that team.
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| 33 | THK
ID: 221132116
Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 17:55
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I am changing my mind by the minute (turning my bracket in for the fraternity in 2 hours)...
I think Marquette will beat Bama, but there is some chance they won't. I really think Marquette can beat UCLA. I don't want to risk losing an Elite 8 team that could lose to Bama in the first round...
So I am taking Marquette over UCLA like I think will happen if they get past Bama. However, I am going to take Zaga to the Elite 8, who will likely be in that game and have that chance no matter who they are playing.
My final bracket....
First Round Upsets:
Texas A&M over Syracuse ---I think two #12 seeds will win of the 3 I picked...low risk high reward when the 5s will lose the next round
NC State over California
Bucknell over Arkansas
San Diego State over IU
UW-Milwalkee over OU
Montana over Nevada
Utah State over Washington
Second Round Upsets:
Pittsburgh over KU
Marquette over UCLA
G'Town over Ohio State
***MSU over UNC is likely but I didn't put it
Sweet 16 Upsets:
LSU over Duke
Boston College over Nova
UNC over Tennessee (or MSU over Tenn too)
Elite 8 Picks:
LSU, Texas
Memphis, Gonzaga (I hate them but still)
UConn, UNC
BC, Florida
Final Four Picks:
Texas
Memphis
UConn
Florida
Championship:
UConn 84
Texas 79
Ahhh....let it begin so I can quit changing things!!!
THK
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| 34 | smallwhirled
ID: 170452415
Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 18:12
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EDIT for my post 28.....I think Billy Donovan did make a Final 4 with Florida. Regardless, they won't make it this year.
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| 35 | Razor
ID: 4211373115
Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 19:17
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The last SEC team to make it to the Final Four was Florida in the year 2000! If anyone from the SEC is going this year, it is LSU.
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| 36 | THK
ID: 221132116
Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 19:17
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Not saying Lunardi is a god at bracketology or anything but he picked his field today....his final four are the exact same as mine! ;-) He also had IU in the Elite 8 I think while I have them out in the 1st round, lol.
Oh well...
THK
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| 37 | Slowhand
SuperDude
ID: 056744223
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 01:47
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I love this time of year
THK and I have picked many of the same upsets but our Final 4s and Elite 8s are very different.Actually my brackets are quite a bit different from my first one,somewhat reflecting the teams a few of my buddies and I purchased at a charity Calcutta auction last night.
1st rnd upsets
Bucknell over Ark.
San Diego St. over Ind.
Utah St. over Wash.
Montana over Nevada (Montana is my alma mater and we are good friends with the Hasquet family (Jordon Hasquet is a starter for the Griz)so this is a bit of a homer pick but they really are good)
2nd rnd upsets
Syr. over LSU (but they use their last bit of magic in this game)
W.VA. over Iowa
Bucknell over Mem. (experiance rules in the tourney)
San Diego St.over the Zags
Michigan St. over UNC (sorry THK but let me say that next year UNC is a prohibitive favorite to win it all)
Witchita St. over Tenn. (I really think Tenn may get beat by Winthrop in the first round lol...so watch Tenn make the Final Four)
Georgetown over Ohio St.
More upsets in round 2 than round 1.So-o-o-o
Sweet Sixteen upsets
BC over Villanova
Elite 8
Duke Texas
Kansas UCLA
UConn Michigan St.
BC Fla
Final Four
Duke UCLA
UConn BC
Championship
UCLA 69 UConn 62
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| 38 | Slowhand
SuperDude
ID: 056744223
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 02:32
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As a bit of a side note;a local bar here sponsers a fund raiser for Cystic-Fibrosis.It's a "Calcutta" auction so the 64 tournament teams are auctioned off,10% of the money raised (as well as money form an auction of donated items and a 50/50 raffle usually a total of 8 to 10 thousand dollars is raised)is donated to the charity and the rest goes into the prize pool and is dispersed according to this table:
Place $ Per Team
1st $12,525
2nd $6,012
3rd & 4th $4,760
5th - 8th $1,754
9th - 16th $1,002
17th - 32nd $438
I had some input from my pals in the group, but since I was the largest contributor and the considered EXPERT (definition of an expert:an ex is a has-been and a spert is a drip under pressure)the choices were largely mine.
I'll share our purchases with my fellow Gurupies so you can celebrate/commiserate with me when you see how smart/stupid I was.
Bucknell $450
Utah St. $450
California $625
Michigan St. $950
UCLA $3000
Monmouth $20
Other teams of note went for:
Duke $4700
UConn $4200
Villanova $3250
Memphis $2500
THK - UNC $2100
BC $2400
Texas $2800
Tenn $1400
Anyway it was alot of fun and sure has added some excitement to this years games.Feel free to tell me if you think we can break even, win big,or lose our ass.Good luck to everyone and GO UCLA!!!
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| 39 | kev
Donor
ID: 043111845
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 04:46
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Almost forgot to enter Market Madness, the game I won last year.
Lets see how the 3am bracket does!
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| 40 | THK
ID: 221132116
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 10:55
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1 hour and 26 minutes boys!!! Man...I LOVE THE TOURNAMENT!
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| 41 | biliruben
ID: 531202411
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 11:02
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$4200 for Uconn and $3000 for UCLA? I would expect a greater differential and so would vegas.
Vegas gives 13-1 for UCLA and 3-1 for UConn and 9-2 for Duke.
Whoever got UConn got a bargain, I think.
I paid $75 for Uconn and $35 for UCLA; about right I think for our structure, which pays for each round they advance: $4.20 for a rd1 win, $8.40 more for a rd2 win etc...
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| 42 | biliruben
ID: 531202411
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 11:03
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CBS and Akamai are putting their reps on the line by offering live FREE streaming of all the games.
They claim they can easily handle 200,000 viewers at one time, but I am guessing they will have much more than that.
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| 43 | Slowhand
SuperDude
ID: 056744223
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 11:23
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re:41 I have to agree with you bili regarding UConn and winning the tourney,however we make money if UCLA reaches the Final Four,and the oddsmakers have UConn 5-2 to win their region and UCLA 2-1.
They pick the teams randomly in this auction and UConn came out very late;so I wondered what it would have brought in earlier.
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| 44 | biliruben
ID: 531202411
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 11:28
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Yeah, it's hard to predict whether you will see inflation or deflation as these auctions go on. Sometimes the bargains are in the first handful of teams, especially with my friends, who get drunker and drunker and inflate the prices as the auction progresses and people realize they need a solid shot at winning.
Sometimes it's the opposite, as the big bidders get their teams early and you can pick up bargains at the end. Dynamic returns make things interesting.
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| 45 | Perm Dude
Dude
ID: 030792616
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 11:29
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What, no money on XU?
:)
I really do believe that Ohio State will go Elite 8 this year, and would also look for some strong performances from Air Force, Nevada, and San Diego State today.
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| 46 | biliruben
ID: 531202411
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 11:31
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I agree with you, PD, on all but Air Force. Go Illini!
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| 47 | Perm Dude
Dude
ID: 030792616
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 11:33
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Heh heh. Well, they can still have a strong performance and lose, I suppose.
:)
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| 48 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 13:07
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I've summarized the picks for this year's contest. There are 488 entries, down from last year's 523.
Tennessee was the favorite short, sppearing on that side of 341 entries (70%). The next most shorted team was Memphis, at about 63%.
The favorite long is UConn, appearing as a long on about 53% of all entries. Boston College, the ACC basket, and the #4 seed basket are the next most popular longs.
sortable tally of contest entries
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| 49 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 14:28
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Anybody able to get the CBS live streaming to work?
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| 50 | Razor
ID: 36241218
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 14:51
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I think the #4's this year are exceptionally strong. KU and LSU won their regular season conference championships. Illinois and BC played well down the stretch. All have legit Final Four hopes.
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| 51 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 15:20
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[49] The CBS live streaming works great for me.
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| 52 | THK
ID: 221132116
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 20:33
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6-1 after the first 7. How did Novak miss that 3?!?!?! Not to mention the horrible shot right before that. He blew my perfect bracket! ;-)
I love how people said no #12 would win and the first one that played won.
I like LSU to the Elite 8 IF they get past Iona. I knew Iona would be some serious trouble and they are proving that...
Zaga...if you lose to XU that is just horrific!
THK
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| 53 | Coach42
ID: 46211621
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 22:03
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Does anyone know where I can find NCAA tourney stats, like the overall record of the seeds? and stuff like that. i'm trying to convince my buddy that there IS a difference between a 9 see and a 13
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| 54 | Donkey Hunter
ID: 148271020
Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 22:24
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Straight from the Guru's historical stats
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| 55 | Coach42
ID: 46211621
Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 01:22
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Thanks Donkey, I suppose I could have found that out for myself :)
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| 56 | THK
ID: 221132116
Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 04:01
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Not a bad first day of 13-3, too bad my damn roommate has a perfect bracket. It is ok though because he has Bradley, Southern Illinois, and other differences I think....
Damn IU for winning. Lucky bastards. That would have been a big moral victory for getting another upset pick. I really thought SDST would take that one.
How does Novak take that horrible shot then miss that wide open three?!?! ARGH!!! That really hurts.
What a comeback from GW. Whew.
Gonzaga sucks. Wow. Xavier is missing 2 of their best players for crying out loud.
Utah State wasn't even close! :-( At least 2 of my #12 seeds won like I said!
THK
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| 57 | Razor
ID: 36241218
Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 12:11
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I hope to God Gonzaga can somehow make the Elite Eight. I'd love for my Jayhawks to face them there if they can't make it there themselves.
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| 58 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3415339
Sat, Mar 18, 2006, 00:06
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So, who is going to cleanup Razor?
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| 59 | Perm Dude
Dude
ID: 030792616
Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 23:31
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Well, with OSU out there went all my brackets.
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| 60 | leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 08:54
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My brackets have also imploded.
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| 61 | THK
ID: 292171814
Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 09:10
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My bracket is doing pretty damn well this year. I correctly picked multiple upsets. I have 7 of my 8 Elite Eight teams left, and my final four is very much in tact.
I have yet to miss a game in the Nova region, and only missed one in the Duke region.
I am in 6th in my school right now (facebook for those of you that know it) and looking to finish first. Also I am 1st in my fraternity standings with a prize pool of over $150. Hopefully I can close....
THK
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| 62 | chode
ID: 30220813
Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 12:02
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Go to Hell, Carolina, go to Hell! [clap clap]
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| 63 | G
Donor
ID: 5810561615
Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 12:22
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Only 11 of 16 left: Duke,LSU (Duke), Texas, Memphis (Memphis), Gonzaga,UCLA (UCLA), UCONN Vil,BC (Vil), Flor, Geo(Geo). Not enough to make any noise.
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| 64 | THK
ID: 292171814
Thu, Mar 23, 2006, 21:40
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Damn...2 more correct. Dook = TIGER BAIT! I told you...
Go Texas and Zaga...
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| 65 | THK
ID: 292171814
Fri, Mar 24, 2006, 00:30
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Unreal...what a comeback by UCLA. Zaga handed the game over late playing terrible...
Not to mention...what a game with WV and Texas. Nice set of games late.
THK
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| 66 | biliruben
ID: 531202411
Fri, Mar 24, 2006, 00:31
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wow. Two terrific games.
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| 67 | THK
ID: 292171814
Fri, Mar 24, 2006, 00:32
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Well I first had UCLA in the Elite 8 and then changed it with Marquette to the Sweet 16 and Zaga to the Elite 8. Then I changed it....damnit...
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| 68 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Fri, Mar 24, 2006, 00:35
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I can't count the number of times I just yelled "Are you kidding me"????
Both instant classics for sure!
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| 69 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3415339
Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 17:11
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Finally, Houdini has drowned. Congratulations, George Mason. I can't believe I'm typing that. What's next year, "Congratulations Oberlin"?
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| 70 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3415339
Fri, Mar 31, 2006, 18:48
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Donkyhunter's picks this year are simply amazing, awe inspiring. Wow.
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| 71 | TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Apr 01, 2006, 14:40
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Yes, they are. I was looking at a couple teams that made some great picks. It looks like these were the picks to have.
Longs:
G. Mason
#11 Seed
SEC
LSU
Florida
#4 Seed
Pac 10
UCLA
Bradley
The 10th spot would be Mo Valley or #2 Seed depending on if UCLA wins it all.
w/out baskets sub in:
G. Town
WA
NW St
Wich St
TX A&M
Shorts:
Big 10
#1 Seed
Big East
ACC
Big 12
#5 Seed
Ohio St
Ten
Duke
Iowa (or could sub in #2 seed if UCLA loses to LSU)
w/out baskets leave Iowa over #2 seed and sub in:
Memphis
NC
Kansas
Nevada
Syracuse
Illinois
Guru, when I sorted excluding basket units, I can't find my team TB3. I did some quick math and have that team at 259, with LSU, Florida, and UCLA still remaining. I could be doing the math wrong, but I checked it a couple times.
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| 72 | TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Apr 01, 2006, 14:45
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I just went and read the rules and found the answer to my own question:
But all entries will be eligible for this prize, as long as the short sales for individual team units are sufficient to fund the corresponding longs of individual teams units. If your team longs cost more than you raised with team shorts, then your entry will not be eligible for this prize. If you submit multiple entries, you might want to try one with team units only, just to improve your chances for that prize.
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| 73 | THK @ friends
ID: 45348120
Sat, Apr 01, 2006, 21:48
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Man...all that crap I got for my Florida pick in the Final Four and NOBODY takes it back? Ah well, my other 3 final four teams lost in the Elite 8 which sucks.
I ended up #2 in my school (nobody else can catch me) out of 354 and won my fraternity pool.
One of the best tournaments in recent history turns out to have one of the worst semifinals so far (halftime of the LSU/UCLA game).
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| 74 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Sun, Apr 02, 2006, 01:52
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Florida beat Villanova and a bunch of nobodies :)
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| 75 | THK @ friends
ID: 45348120
Sun, Apr 02, 2006, 12:11
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Fair enough...but that is all they had to beat. I had them pegged to play Wis-Mil and G'town. Missed BC by a goaltend, but still beat Nova.
Now they are going to win it all! Say what you want but you guys were dead wrong; I don't care the road they took!
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| 76 | leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Tue, Apr 04, 2006, 09:04
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I'll eat my words. I still don't think they are that good, though :)
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| 77 | J
Leader
ID: 10171012
Tue, Apr 04, 2006, 09:28
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I hope all 5 starters leave early for the NBADL :)
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| 78 | THK
ID: 292171814
Wed, Apr 05, 2006, 21:32
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leggestand-
I was hoping it was somebody else that had said "Florida is garbage". That really suck out in my mind and I was ready to get on anybody that wouldn't come back and admit defeat! One of the only ones to have them in the final four in my school! ;-) Only one in my fraternity.
Finished #1 in my school out of 354 participants using upset scoring. Also won my fraternity pool. I love March. Not to mention my HeeLs go for 2 of 3 next year!!!
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| 79 | leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Thu, Apr 06, 2006, 09:17
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Congrats on the win(s) THK. My wife actually won my work pool (66 entrants) and she picked UCLA-Florida, with UCLA winning (her other final four teams were Duke and UConn). When she filled out her bracket, I told her the same thing I told you about Florida; basically, "thanks for the donation."
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| 80 | THK
ID: 33328819
Sat, Apr 08, 2006, 21:28
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HAHA. I am sure she has rubbed that in enough to make you regret those comments.
THK
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