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0 Subject: Market Madness 2018

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sat, Mar 10, 2018, 10:41

The contest site has been launched for 2018.
http://rotoguru1.com/madness

There's not much to do before the brackets are announced, of course.
1The Beezer
      ID: 4011461714
      Thu, Mar 15, 2018, 12:29
Now that the contest is locked, how many people took the free $10 from shorting the Pac-12 and longing Arizona in some way? That was a rare opportunity that I felt compelled to take advantage of with both UCLA and USCís losses in the First Four.
2Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 15, 2018, 13:44
There were 414 entrants this year, down 2% from last year. Iíve posted a sortable summary of 2018 unit selections. Click on any linked column heading to sort by that column. A few quick observations:
  • Favorite short is Xavier (by a wide margin), followed by the #1 seed basket, Kansas, Virginia, and the SEC and Big 12 baskets.
  • Favorite longs are Michigan State and Gonzaga, followed by Villanova, Arizona, and the Big 10.
  • Xavier was the most active unit, with 29 longs and 236 shorts. Virginia was almost as active, although more balanced Ė 115 long, 141 short.
  • Every unit had some activity on both the long and short side.

The standings will be updated periodically during the day. Click on the standings link, and the number of games included will appear in the page heading. Remember that because cash received on shorts is part of your net return, entries with large short imbalances will appear at the top of the rankings at the start of the contest. After several rounds, most of those will drift down, unless their shorts have worked out very well. It is typical that some entrants position their picks with the apparent objective of gaining an early lead. Everyone seeks their 15 minutes of fame, I guess.
3Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 15, 2018, 13:58
[1] Only four entries had the pure arbitrage of shorting the Pac-12 while longing Arizona.

If you were allowed to short an unlimited number of units, then it would be a no brainer. But with limits, the automatic $10 isn't as compelling.

A long of the 4 seeds vs the Pac-12 short isn't a true arbitrage, although it does get you three of the #4 seeds at a net cost of $14 (vs. the "fair" value of $24). 23 entries had that combo.
4The Beezer
      ID: 4011461714
      Fri, Mar 16, 2018, 07:19
Good point Guru. I went with the PAC-12/4 seed combo because I felt bullish on the other 3 teams in that basket but wasnít a big fan of Arizona. Not enough to short them though unfortunately!
5Perm Dude
      ID: 4724156
      Fri, Mar 16, 2018, 09:30
I longed both XU and the Big East. Going to be a feast or famine for me this year!
6Chuck
      ID: 42582223
      Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 00:58
Guru-

Is there any easy way to make # of shorts left & # of longs left sortable in the standings? If not that's fine, but I know right now actual standings don't mean as much as potential payoffs-- and there are some big ones this year. I would be interested to see quickly who is lurking lower with lots of #11's & #9's on the long side...
7Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 09:47
No - not really. Nor do I think it would be particularly meaningful, since not all units have similar impact (e.g., the ACC basket - with 4 teams still alive - is worth more than the Duke unit.)

Just wait until Sunday night, and the landscape will become much clearer.
8Seattle Zen
      ID: 309252611
      Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 09:57
Gonzaga did it again, losing money while being one of the most popular longs. Guru, could you do a history of the Bulldogs results for this contest? I would bet that they have more negative than positive returns, especially of late. Back when Danny Dickow was the darling of the dance and they were low seeds, they were profitable. But I maintain they have been seriously overrated the past decade and had a good chuckle when I saw they were amongst the most popular longs. Unfortunate truth is shorting the Zags was one of my only correct picks this year.
9Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 09:35
Best possible score
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