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Subject: Strategy Questions/Rules Interpretations Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Wed, Mar 14, 2001 09:41 Let's set up this thread to deal with any questions you have on the rules or strategy. I'll check this thread regularly over the next 24 hours, but others should feel to chime in with an answer (if you think you know it). As a starter, I included a number of hints in today's (3/14) blurb. If you haven't read it yet, start there. | ||||||
| 1 | StLCards ID: 2504849 Wed, Mar 14, 10:30 |
OK, Thanks Guru. I think I have it figured out now. The simulator is obviously the key to picking the teams to short and buy long, (assuming I can actually pick the teams right of course). | |||||
| 2 | GoatLocker ID: 26058212 Wed, Mar 14, 14:26 |
OK, I think I'm figuring it out, but here is a question. Let's say I like Hofstra over UCLA. Am I better to short UCLA, or go Long on Hofstra. Or, does it not matter. Cliff | |||||
| 3 | Smith32 ID: 3442538 Wed, Mar 14, 14:28 |
Guru, For the "non-basket" game, I am assuming that you could have a negative score before any games are played. For example, if I short 10 baskets and go long on 10 individual teams, my residual cash balance would most likely be very negative for the "non-basket" half, even though that is not allowed for the "full version". I am understanding this correctly? Thanks for your efforts on this game, I enjoy it. Smith32 | |||||
| 4 | JeffG ID: 40451227 Wed, Mar 14, 14:46 |
I'll take the Hofstra/UCLA question. If you short UCLA, you get $8 for the 'purchase' plus the $13 they are awarded when they lose. Your net is plus $21. UCLA is out so there is no more gains here. To long Hofstra, you pay $4 for them, are awarded $13 for the win, your net is plus $9. If they lose (as the worse seed) in the next round, there is no penalty. They are then out of the tourney and there will be no more gains here. If they were to win in the second round, then long on Hofstra will have more gains. So, the better upside is to short UCLA assuming you think Hofstra goes no further. Of course if you are wrong, there is more downside with shorting UCLA if they were to win two rounds. But, if UCLA were to beat Hofstra and lose in the next round (as a better seed) shorting UCLA will still get you gains. $8 for the short, -$4 for winning round 1, but +13 (assuming a loss to a 5-seed in round 2) to for a net $17 gain. If UCLA wins the first two rounds your UCLA short starts to be a negative. When in doubt, try the simulator for the scenarios. | |||||
| 5 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 14, 14:52 |
Smith32 - correct. Goat - it depends on your continued outlook for Hofstra. If UCLA loses the game, a short nets you $21 (you sell them for $8, then collect $13 for the loss). A Hofstra long only nets you $9, since the $13 gain is offset by the $4 cost. But if Hofstra advances further, then they would do better, because they would continue to win $13 each time they beat a better seed. If you're convinced about that game you could always do both (short UCLA & buy Hofstra). You can test this by using the scoring simulator, and just selecting that one game. Then look at the scores for those two teams. | |||||
| 6 | GoatLocker ID: 26058212 Wed, Mar 14, 15:00 |
Thanks all for the help. I'm looking at the simulator now after running all the games. Cliff | |||||
| 7 | T-man ID: 352561715 Sat, Mar 17, 15:56 | This may be a silly question, but its been bugging me, so I'd better ask. Regarding the bonuses for making it to the final four and winning the tournament, are you charged the bonuses if you are short on a team that wins the bonus? For example, I shorted North Carolina (proabably a stupid move), but if they go to the final four, will I be charged the $20 bonus that gets paid to those that have NC long? | |||||
| 8 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sat, Mar 17, 16:21 | Yes. | |||||
| 9 | JeffG ID: 2444220 Sun, Mar 18, 10:27 | Just a thought (not a complaint), but if Gonzaga loses this afternoon to 13th seeded Indian State, -13 seems like too big a penalty for a 12 seed to take. They are only seeded one number apart. It will wipe out the gain that they made by beating a 5 seed as a 12, yielding -6 on the long. Who would have thought you can buy a 12 seed and lose more by them losing in the second round than the first. | |||||
| 11 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sun, Mar 18, 12:13 | Them's the breaks. | |||||
| 12 | StLCards Sustainer ID: 2504849 Thu, Mar 14, 2002, 12:35 | I managed to get 10 shorts and 10 longs. That was an accomplishment in itself. My picks usually get beat by people using a flip of the coin anyway. I've heard the real trick is to pick the teams with red or blue in their uniforms. LOL, that must be the majority of teams. Guess I can forget about Mizzou once again this year. Mich St. did buck the trend so maybe there is still hope. | |||||
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