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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1117
Posted by: StLCards
- Sustainer [3505622] Wed, Aug 08, 20:33
Madman - please get your horse out of my race! or at least allow me to draft...I really don't need to eat anymore dirt right now. |
| 1 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Aug 09, 00:20
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:) Sorry dude. Someone put $50K of purse money on the line in a starter allowance race (my specialty), and you expect me to not show up? I believe I said a couple of weeks ago that it was my goal to own the male starter allowance dirt sprints on this side of the Atlantic. Everyone in the sim who enters starter dirt sprints in North America should simply assume that they'll have to go through my horses to get to the winners circle. It can be done. I lost 3 races two weeks ago, breaking my streak of 4 straight starter allowance victories.
Thus, feel lucky that I only entered one horse in the Breeder's Cup for claimed horses. I almost put Skin Jumping in there, too, to have LJ and SJ go mano-y-mano. :)
You've got a decent nag in there, stlcards. But objectively speaking I do think LJ outclasses him a bit.
Searching for weakness? LJ got nipped LTO, and is under one of the worst jockeys in the sim. So, if you are ever going to beat him, now would be the time :).
For everyone else, we're talking about race 4710.
BTW, you can't draft Light Jupiter. He's a slow-starter and kicker. I don't think anyone in that race can even come close to out-kicking him. The only question is if Napper is going to ever get him going. . .
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Other Madman highlights:
Skin Jumping goes off at 9/1 in 4809. A possible betting opportunity here, again. Although don't go for the win -- stay with the show bet.
Babified Opposum completes my trio of starter dirt sprinters this week (Tow's Terms, Elocat's Boys and a few others have to hold down the starter-allowance dirt sprints in the weeks when LJ and SJ aren't going at it). He's 6/1 and ranked 3rd in 3911.
Interesting betting op: Jericho Velvet goes off at 53/1 in 3608. Obviously, only bet to show. But he's much better than those odds say. Enough better to warrant a bet? I dunno. No guarantees here.
Darn Ballet makes his Madman debut, and goes off at 9/2. The CPU seems to like his endurance breeding (he's never been tried in route races). Did I pull another claimer out of thin air? Or is this just another one of those "other 50%" that fall apart? We shall see.
Check out my top 3yo in 3908. I'm trying him at 10f in order to check him out for a possible NW2x ASR race in 1138. Check out those odds! Geezo. If he doesn't win, I'm gonna cry.
Admirable Launch -- another long-shot claim runner. Odds are that either this guy or Darn Ballet won't show much. Putting him in a turf sprint to get a surface comparison before I stretch him upward.
Private Count -- how long can he go against the odds? He's in race 2110. There was a 90% chance for mud, IIRC. Of course, it didn't happen. Sigh. That's why I did a repeat of his last 9f dirt race -- I was hoping to test him on an off-track.
All in all, I only have 11 horses going. Stinky the Urban didn't draw into her 14 horse field.
Good luck, y'all. But don't mess with me in dirt-sprint male starter allowances! :)
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| 2 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Thu, Aug 09, 01:40
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Mass Point, race 4710, vs Light Jupiter. With a $50K purse I had to give it a try. Looks like a number of horses have a real shot. Who is going to be hot Sat. is the question. I have the #3 jock and the #2 position, next to LJ at #1. Looks like some early runners in the middle of the field. I can only hope for a good ride and a good day in this one (20/1 odds), but who knows.
Hot Republic, using the sire search in SSS, makes me think Hot Republic might be a turf horse. Has the #1 jock in race 0703, 8.5f turf, 10/1 odds, but no true favorite if you ask me. Will need a juge jump over the dirt tries, but last race was just a work out anyway. 4th favorite based on odds.
Erica Bark, race 2414, is trying for a NW1Lx win this week in a 6 horse field. 8f dirt with the #1 jock, but 3/1 odds only puts her 3d favorite.
Duke Ice, 1404, also drew the top jock this week. At 17/1 odds probably won't have much luck, but I couldn't find a good claimer race this week for him.
Out Within Form, a 2yo filly claimer, is running in the slop in race .6901. This horse should probably be on turf and I hope she doesn't come back injured. Has the #1 jock in winning %, but has no experience. Pretty scary comination. I'm expecting an injury for sure.
Longfoot, race 1203, is at 33/1. I'm simply hoping for a 5th place or better and an improvement in time over his last race.
Good luck to everyone this week. See you in the winner's circle.
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| 3 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Thu, Aug 09, 02:58
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Bee stacking(2004) goes back to route races again..He is the fav at 5/2 but we shall see if that first run was a fluke or not..If he repeats it,he should win..
Prince beau(1704)is back in the claiming races, a 9.5f turf race...odds of 8/1 here..
American car(5105) runs for the first time in route races..I actually entered him in the wrong race(sigh)...Anyhow, we will see how he handles it..
Red sal(4801) is in the cheapest claimer i could find...This is one very, very slow horse!...anyone want him?..lol..He goes into the auction next week i think...I am sure i can find a better horse for his stall in the stable...
Sloppy station(3115)has another go in the allowance races...Probably his last chance...And then into high tag claimers..
Boldly wrap(0511)and Rules(7110)are still trying to break their maidens...Don't really like their chances..
Paunchi's horses(0207) is unblocked and races for the first time...At 30/1 so the cpu doesn't like him!..
One winner out of this lot i hope..hopeful for a couple of itm performances but not holding my breath...
Good luck to everyone...
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| 4 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 41753917
Thu, Aug 09, 18:04
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Nice progression in the odds from horses in my main stables this week.
4-1 Swiftly Spurn tries to end his always-a-bridesmaid routine in a $11.7 MSW at 2412.
5-1 Dan's Forest. Shipping this horse by mistake to Europe may not have been such a bad idea. 6004.
6-1 Tie Dixie in 1105 Ohio at 7.5 on the dirt.
7-1 Mine Devastation like Swiftly Spurn tries to break maiden. Trying turf at $23.7 0807.
8-1 Ten Tenant Recent Toral claim goes the 6 furlongs at a higher tag on 0712.
BTW Earl Gal (#11800) demonstrated last week that he (yes, he) will be a good across-the-board betting proposition on yielding turf, finishing 2nd last week at 26-1. Since I love the slop horses, ironic that EG, unexpectedly to me, should turn out to be a yielding specialist. Look for him, Madman, in a starter allowance near you.
And, in the next few days, a cheap computer hacker/fixer tries to see if he can get my computer to recognize my CD-ROM drive and reinstall Windows!
Good racing luck to all.
Toral
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| 5 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 11, 12:22
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Madman Highlights, Week 1117:
11-2-2-3. Could've been much better. Could've been worse.
Top pick of the week:
Jericho Velvet at 53/1 cranks a 96 speed on turf to blow through an NW2x field. hehehehe. I feel very good about this pick. I wanted a turf sprinter, and saw this guy for $25K. But he has a 5K tag. Gaz had tried to hide him by running him evey week. Gaz then transferred him to his main stables, where he apparently gave up on him. :) I just hope he can come back and in two weeks run in the ASR Team Trophy competition. It would be sweet to use a Gaz claimer to beat Gaz's horses. :)
Rate Learn -- whoa. Where is this guy getting this from? 82 speed to blow away the field in a NW2L claimer!
OUCH::::
Sal at the Bell -- 80 speed to finish #2 in 10f MSW. Just died from the distance.
Light Jupiter -- 94.7. But fired kick at wrong time against a quality field. Yeeouch. #3, good for 4K in the Breeder's Cup for Starter horses. DANG.
Skin Jumping -- 90.8. Dang, dang. 6f is just too short for this guy. I'm moving him back up to 7f, and maybe another 8f test. 5th place.
Babified Opposum -- I'm dumping this kid next time out in claimers. He can run 90's. But he can also run 70's.
Private Count -- NW2x race. Leading most of the way. Two nags kicked by her with 1f to go. Thought I had this one in the bag. Oh well. She ran a 95.5 speed in a dirt router. I'll take that.
Darn Ballet -- One of my 3yo Claimer experiments. Mixed results here. 78.7 in a 9f turf race, good for 3rd. At least I got some points back (claim cost was 50K). Next up is 9f dirt test. Then 8f at whichever distance he's better at.
Admirable Launch -- YEEEOUCH. OK. He doesn't like turf. Next up is 8f dirt test. Dang it. Only paid 7500 for the claim, however. Going back into claimers, hopefully NW3L, NTO.
Drunken Badger -- #2. Who would think that a horse running mid 50's would be useful. I SHOULD experiment with him. But snagging 2nd and 3rd's in maiden claimers here is racking up the points!
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| 6 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sat, Aug 11, 12:25
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Is the raceout available yet? It wasn't when I checked, and now the site is down for me.
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| 8 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 11, 12:30
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Raceout.zip
Results page
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I should also note that my 4 stables broke the $500K earnings barrier this week. 187 races down, $520,000 earned.
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| 9 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 11, 12:33
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JKaye -- yep. You had a very solid week. You had more wins that me! Bastard! :) Congrats. Looks like my stables need some work to stay in front of some of you guys!
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| 10 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sat, Aug 11, 12:35
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The links don't seem to work for some reason.
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| 11 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 11, 12:39
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StlCards also had some really good performances. And Bee Stacking for cab does well . . .
You know, I've got to put this week in perspective. A couple of months ago I was pretty happy to get 1 90+ runner per week. I remember one week when we didn't have a single GURUPIE horse break 90.
This week I had 4 of 11 go 90+. Including a 96.3 on turf, and a 95.5 at 9f on dirt. And I got my 12th runner in my stables to break 90. Even more surprisingly, I'm planning on dropping 2 of these 90+ guys into claimers ASAP. . .
We are progressing. It just takes time.
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| 12 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 11, 12:40
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JKaye -- they just worked for me. Try again? They weren't cached for me. . .
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| 13 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sat, Aug 11, 12:41
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Yeah, they work fine. Thanks.
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| 14 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 11, 12:41
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Hmm. The whole site is back up. Maybe that's why they worked?
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| 15 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sat, Aug 11, 12:55
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My 2yo breakdown:
Prospector's Turn ran a 70! This was at 6f dirt, which doubles his performance on 7f dirt.
Broke Night ran a 72.3. This after a 68.4. Both were run 8f dirt.
Slain at Contarf did better than I thought. He ran a 55.2 at 8f dirt despite finishing last. Tough field.
Ruddy Wain ran a 46.7 on 8f turf. Hopefully this goes up on dirt.
Storm and Stress ran a 56.9 on 7.5turf. Like Ruddy Wain, we'll see if dirt improves that.
Other SP for my horses:
-Blonde Broad only ran 77.4. It was on good turf though, so hopefully he can run better on firm turf at this distance.
-Dixie's Bungees ran only 71.7. Got to the front too soon, probably because the race was so slow! Managed 2nd anyway.
-Brother Matt only ran a 66. Perhaps this was .5f too long.
-Heir Royalty can't find a niche. Looking more and more like there simply isn't one out there for him.
-Lexington Lemon did his job winning with 72.6 at 10f. Perfect one and done claimer, which nets me 17 BP.
Overall, my stables still suck ;)--made clear by the SP.
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| 16 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 11, 13:42
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JKaye -- Those two 2-yo performances are very good. Not future graded stakes numbers necessarily, but getting close. It just depends on how they develop. Ideally, I think all future G1 calibre 2yo's are going to be 80 speed capable right now. I'm really not totally sure.
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| 17 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sat, Aug 11, 17:33
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I certainly don't expect any sub-50 BP horses to develop into G1 winners. That would just be an increible bonus. But a few look good enough as consistent runners somewhere and will certainly more than make up for the BP I spent on them.
After I get the 2yo I expect tomorrow, I will have bred 8 of them. Seems like a lot, but the ultimate goal is to have a good 3yo crop next year to leave me in the positive in terms of BP on these guys. Several look like good investments already. I want to get a lot of BP, because I have two 7 year olds with royal breeding lines. Sometime in the near future I'd love to be able to use those lines and breed with a stud sire.
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| 18 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Sat, Aug 11, 20:50
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2 wins for the StLCards stables this week. Erica Bark runs wire to wire once again for the win in her home state of MO. Runs a nice little 83.9SP for the win.
The biggest surprise was Hot Republic. First two races on dirt were 61SP, 55SP and out of the money. The SSS said try the turf and he brings home the win with an 87.8SP. What a nice surprise :-) Thanks Madman!
In the meantime I wasted another outing with my claimer pickups who obviously need to go back to the claiming ranks to earn their keep.
I guess the claims for this week aren't up yet?
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| 19 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sat, Aug 11, 23:43
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Bee stacking won his race pretty easily(which is just as well cause i bet nearly 3/4 of all the money i have, from all 3 stables on him!..)with an 88sp...the slight drop in speed doesn't surprise me considering he won by 5 lengths..
Everyone else sucked,basically..lol...Although Sloppy broke 90sp for the first time ,getting home late for 5th...I suppose i will have to look at claimers for him....I think he would be a very consistent bp gatherer but i would doubt that i would be able to hang onto him for very long...
Paunchi's horses kicked home nicely,finishing fourth in his debut(86sp-6.5 f on good dirt)..There is some hope , to at least get a maiden win out of him i think..
one ITM from 8 starts...The percentages will take a dive this week...sigh..It was a pretty weak lot of runners,overall, that went around this week though...
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| 20 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Sun, Aug 12, 20:02
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I was shut out on claimers this week, but my daughter (allyfarms) managed to snag Kingdom Blushing. I hope he can get it done for her as the horses I helped her draft don't show much promise. Ally is not quite 11, but she really seems to be enjoying this. I probably won't let her post on rotoguru due to some of the nasty type things I've seen posted over the years (not here) which is a shame as I know she would enjoy being a part of something like this forum.
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| 21 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sun, Aug 12, 20:36
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I got shut out too STL..I put claims in for all those horses in that race(6005 i think it was)...I hope your daughter has success with him...
They all looked liked they would be good pick-ups..Never really expected to get one though...
They sure are keeping us in suspense with updates!!...lol
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| 22 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sun, Aug 12, 22:00
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I can't recall waiting this long for the Sunday update. Oh well, I guess this further shows that patience is the #1 key in this game. ;)
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| 23 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 13, 00:06
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STL -- yep. Probably a wise thing. Honestly, I'm not sure it's too healthy for a kid to spend too much time on a message board, anyway :)
Regarding Kingdom Blushing, congrats. Personally, I'd go for 9f on dirt next, and stretch upward. Gone West is a shorter influence, but Nijinsky II might pull you through a bit.
The reason I'd experiment immediately is to keep the horse's CPU down.
The other option, which is very justifiable, would be to return him to the dirt sprints where he ran 108 a long time ago. The only concern I have with that strategy is that for some reason he has had a bad string of sprints for awhile. Up to you guys. 50-50 on what's best, I think.
Oh yeah -- use that juicy 7.5K tag! With that horse, your daughter can smoke any of my nags in 7.5K or up starters. Sigh.
JKaye I can't remember waiting this long, either. In fact, I've heard that it's never happened. Unlike baseball or whatever, there isn't too much that really HAS to happen on any given day. While I'd appreciate it if things followed a better schedule, I'm not too worried or upset.
The interesting thing is that this may make a seller's market in the auction this week -- if you get your horse in before Tuesday. Also, this may make the races this week a bit thinner. We'll have to see.
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| 24 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 13, 16:38
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Updated Stable Stats! Wu-hoo!
| Stable | Races | W | P | S | W% | P% | S% | ITM% | $$$ | $$$/R | Pts | Pts/R
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| cab | 95 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 10.5% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 27.4% | $175,428 | $1,847 | 258 | 2.72
| | fletch | 281 | 37 | 35 | 36 | 13.2% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 38.4% | $453,693 | $1,615 | 1217 | 4.33
| | goatlocker | 27 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 11.1% | 18.5% | $20,465 | $758 | 44 | 1.63
| | gurupie | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 23.1% | $27,410 | $2,108 | 33 | 2.54
| | jkaye | 101 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 9.9% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 28.7% | $150,429 | $1,489 | 326 | 3.23
| | madman | 187 | 31 | 29 | 15 | 16.6% | 15.5% | 8.0% | 40.1% | $520,386 | $2,783 | 811 | 4.34
| | stlcards | 63 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 12.7% | $47,895 | $760 | 100 | 1.59
| | toral | 123 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 12.2% | 15.4% | 9.8% | 37.4% | $216,034 | $1,756 | 529 | 4.30
| | Totals | 890 | 111 | 105 | 84 | 12.5% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 33.7% | $1,611,740 | $1,811 | 3318 | 3.73
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I finally catch up to Toral and Fletch in Pts/R! Took awhile! My earnings per race are getting shelled now that I'm no longer entering high-purse MSW races . . . Starter Allowances don't have much purse money.
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| 25 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 13, 18:28
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I just checked out my two solid SP horses this week. Jericho Velvet had the #6 6.5f Turf sprint speed in the sim, while Private Count had the #4 overall 9f Dirt speed in the sim (Females). You can see that stuff on Mr. Coker's site.
Too bad two of the horses that beat Private Count were in that same race! Sigh.
14 horses are sharp this week for me. I'm starting to have several open spots in my barns again. Got to hit the auction perhaps. At least there you KNOW you're going to acquire a nag or two. Also, I need to get back into the betting thing. My earnings are barely covering my travel expenses! If I ever want to be able to buy an auction horse that's top notch, I've got to keep at this betting thing. Sigh.
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| 26 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Aug 13, 20:38
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I'll have 9 going this week. I am really pissed about my recently unblocked sunday89 horse, Blatantly Spank(Mr ProspectorxVerbatim). He is 7yo, and has been listed as Lay Off! ever since he was unblocked 2 weeks ago. I really want to get the 6 races in before the end of this year and breed a 3yo in January of next year or so with all the BP I can get from now until then.
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| 27 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Tue, Aug 14, 08:50
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Thanks Madman, I do think we are going to stretch him out a bit to see what his range is. We are hopoing for a nice first race on dirt, however, so we might start at 8f and go from there. It has been quite a while since he has run on dirt. The 11f turf seemed too far for him, so we are guessing the sprints are the right distance, but 8.5 to 9f is not out of the question either.
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