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Subject: SSB Horse Racing Wk 1257 -- Last Chances for 2001
Posted by: Toral
- Sustainer [2111201313] Wed, Dec 26, 2001, 20:44
It's hard to believe that the best-looking 3-year olds from my 2 original stables, Swiftly Spurn (#4833) and Mine Devastation (#34538) started out following similar patterns, and indeed in late summer, Swiftly Spurn looked like the better horse. But I always thought that Mine would be the better horse, and lo! this transpired. Mine Devastation has his 1x and has run over 100 3 of his last 4 outings; Swiftly, still a maiden, has run under 63 in 3 of his last 4 races. He gets his last chance to break his maiden as a 3-year-old at 7-1 under Mickson in South Carolina 7001 on Saturday.
Kangaroo Minstrel (#31551), overmatched and perhaps demoralized in a G@ outing twice back, tries a very cheap $40K stakes in the Kolymsky Challenge, Ostend 3614, at 8-1.
Can Napkin Kicking (#293) get his 2x? This 6-year old has speed, but even 6f seems a bit long for him. He tries 6.5 in the 2nd in warm Louisiana in a $450K allowance under Goff at 7-1.
I rather like what Gold River (#27407) has done for me since I decided that despite his Strile-the-Gold lineage, I would try him back at 8f and 9f on the turf, what with Riverman as his DS. He's got his 1x now, and got up to 99 last time out. He was a $35K claim, something I don't do much of, since because of the particular incentives of the game $5K races often seem to have as good fields as $50K ones. Can he too get his 2x before hitting that difficult age of 7, under top jock Munoz at Illinois 0706? I mean, 7 isn't so old that you wouldn't race away if somebody left the stable door open, but it could be a key point in this game. I suppose I should analyze this further.
Chief Northern (#6740) is having a lot of fun in the $10K starter ranks on European dirt, and in my only favourite this year at 8-5*. When his year runs out, think I can sneak him through another 10k claimer? I didn't think so.
Good luck to all this week.
Toral
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| 1 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Sat, Dec 29, 2001, 00:59
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Heya -- I don't even know all the horses I have going this week for sure. I should have Secret Society return to the Stakes level, but I need to check my race cards. Computer difficulties prevented me from getting the activity points I needed this week, so I'm too scared to check whether I got my jockey.
A recap of my recent highlights, however:
Val's Desert (1250.6513) became my 10th(?) horse to break 100 with a 102.2 victory in a 26.4K open allowance. At 65.70 odds, I should have had faith in him. Yeeeouch! But I did predict that he'd be one of the next to join the "Madman 100" club, and any 100+ on turf -- even if it's in a sprint -- is cool.
Babified Opossum -- remember this guy? One of my first claim horses that I almost dumped because he failed at 8f and then appeared to be dead meat in the increased competition of 5K dirt sprints. Well, he just cranked his second 90+ route race, logging a 93.6 in a 10f in RI (1250.7303). Goes to show you that if your horse does really, really bad, you may want to retry at that distance. You should probably have two failures before you give up -- especially if the horse's breeding suggests that they should be good at a particular distance / surface combo.
Straight Time (19830) is having some difficulty placing. Not sure what I should do with her. Next week, she'll turn 5, meaning I can breed her. But her lineage isn't that good. I may try to work her in upper tier claimers. She seems a reliable 90 speed at 9f on dirt. But that's about all I can get out of her.
My stolen 2K claimer -- Rotten Inn -- cranked his second dirt win in a row -- 86.9. Hehehe. Just getting points from him. It's so fun to get a 2K claimer and have him mop up on competition at the 20K level. I mean, you get your bonus points and victories, too! :):):) Although I've now lost him, as you would expect, it was tremendously profitable.
Tow's Terms broke his 100+ streak, loggin a 97.0 at 6f -- not really his best distance, but it was the weakest competition available, and he rewarded with a 3rd place finish.
After 20+ tries, Darn Ballet broke his maiden with a 71.7 speed victory at 8f on turf. This horse has been fairly frustrating. But could be a short-term point scorer. I'm really trying to rack up points in the claim races in the short term, getting primed for an early 2 yo breeding series in 2002.
Miswaki Music -- one of my high 2yo breeds is just not getting it done -- 63.5 at 8f. Only hope for her is that she was in the slop.
American Mint on a good track only logged a 62.2. Aaargh. Outside of my first breed experiment -- Secret Society -- I have had very little luck. Hopefully that will change.
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Toral -- no way you're going to sneak Chief Northern through a claim race under 50K anytime in the near future :). But, that's a good sign -- means he's been running well.
Regarding the 7 yo thing, I wouldn't worry about it too much. Many 7 yo's can still be runners. But they do start to "hit the wall" sometime during the year. I'm 90% sure he "ages" horses periodically throughout the year. I know he did this once in the summer and again in the early fall last year for 2yo's, and I would presume this would affect the older horses, as well. It also depends on breeding and your individual horse characteristics, of course.
Good luck, everyone, and a Happy New Year!
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| 2 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Sat, Dec 29, 2001, 17:36
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Well, I finished 2001 on a bang, going 8 of 11 ITM, and with my second Stakes win for Secret Society -- a 96.2 speed victory in a 45K purse Stakes race.
The really bad news is that he is now "Layoff!" -- DOH! So much for any Kentucky hopes. With luck, I might be able to get him ready for the New Yorker, which is easier to get into, anyway. But I'll need to snag a Graded Stakes victory, since he won't be able to run in January because of injury. He'd probably be the cheapest bred horse in the race if I can get him in. That would be cool :)
I made a mistake in a previous post -- Agriculture Bomber was only my 9th horse to go 100+ speed. This week, I had my 10th one go 100, with breeding prospect Chocolate Dump going 100.6. This means that I've had at least one horse go 100+ for me in each of the last 4 weeks.
The downside of all this is that I've been too successful at cleaning out barn space, with two stables now down to 7 horses each, and a third with only 9. And 3 nags I picked up this week aren't really what I would call top of the line prospects. Madman4 got stuck with Judge Wad.
The best runner I acquired this week was DDay, who has a 101 on turf to his credit. However, that's his only time above 90 in 15 attempts, and he doesn't have a particularly low tag.
For the first time in a long time, I won 500K betting. That just makes up for losses from a couple of weeks ago . . .
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Tip: Keep track of how many breed points and $$$ you've earned and stuff like that. I think some stable stats will reset here beginning next Saturday!
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Congrats, Toral, on Kangaroo Minstrel's Stakes win! 105 on turf. Wow. You've got a sweet horse there.
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| 3 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Sat, Dec 29, 2001, 18:02
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Final Year Tallies, I think:
| Stable | Races | W | P | S | W% | P% | S% | ITM% | $$$ | $$$/R | Pts | Pts/R
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| madman | 444 | 74 | 73 | 52 | 16.7% | 16.4% | 11.7% | 44.8% | $1,165,426 | $2,625 | 1843 | 4.15
| | cab | 306 | 40 | 33 | 33 | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 34.6% | $638,362 | $2,086 | 1268 | 4.14
| | goatlocker | 33 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 9.1% | 15.2% | $20,465 | $620 | 44 | 1.33
| | jkaye | 180 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 27.8% | $272,574 | $1,514 | 525 | 2.92
| | stlcards | 226 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 26.5% | $472,864 | $2,092 | 555 | 2.46
| | toral | 376 | 46 | 52 | 47 | 12.2% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 38.6% | $759,276 | $2,019 | 1544 | 4.11
| | gurupie | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | $1,237 | $95 | 4 | 0.31
| | Totals | 1578 | 200 | 195 | 170 | 12.7% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 35.8% | $3,330,204 | $2,110 | 5783 | 3.66
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| 4 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sun, Dec 30, 2001, 00:39
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It's too bad things died down here--SSB racing at its peak was very active on these boards. Personally, I haven't entered races for weeks, but I hope to get it started up again starting this week. However, I plan to cut my stables from 4 to 2. I know you guys have full loads of stables but just in case someone wants either of my other 2--even if only to experiment or whatever, I figured I'd give you guys the chance to. Just email me and I'll give you the password if you want either jkaye1 or devil01. I hope to get jkaye and sunday89 started again since they have more talent. Maybe we can get the weekly threads started up again, and I will do my best to post more actively.
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| 5 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 40951142
Mon, Dec 31, 2001, 00:23
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What does SSB stand for?
Madman feel free to get rid of the Gurupie stable from any future standings. I entered all the horses in claimers in an attempt to get rid of them but only 1 was claimed. I will enter them again at some point and when it hits 20 races the rest will go to auction. I guess fletch abandoned it.
JKaye Thanks for the devil01 stable. Hopefully I can run it well. I'll probably trim it down in size since I have too many stables as it is, but I couldn't pass on the opportunity to test Sixth Deputy some more. If you ever want it back, just yell.
Country Jodie continues to improve for me getting a 2nd this week. One of my 2yo homebreds Ally's Logic ran an 86SP in a stakes race in MO and came in 3d this week. Came back injured though. A win and 2 shows for him now. A bunch of horses sharp in my stlcards stable. Again I have to waste a few trying one last shot to win 500BP's in a competition at the MO track. Will run Hero Grub longer than she should go in a 9.5f owner restricted $175K stakes race. A win gets me the championship, but not much hope of that.
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| 6 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Dec 31, 2001, 14:55
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SSB should be SSHR. I combined Sim sports basketball with racing...
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| 7 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Mon, Dec 31, 2001, 15:27
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My fault...I used SSB in the header....
Good to see you back, jkaye. I hope to be more active on the board in 2002 too. Haven't made it a New Year's Resolution yet, though....
Thanx for the congrats, Madman, on Kangaroo Minstrel's win. Of equal excitement to me, tho, was that a horse I failed to mention, Alsterimist, my <100 pt homebred filly, broke her maiden in an MSW, beating the highly touted City o'Gold to the Winner's Circle. Nothing spectacular, but when you're wondering if it'll ever happen, it's a relief. She was bred to go 8+, so there's some hope for her 3-year campaign.
In SSHR news, I suppose the big issue nopw is what this updating of sires means. Is it just new sires being updated, or existing sires having their attributes adjusted as well? It would seem logical that the latter 2 be done together. If the existing-sire update is being done now, I have to do some thinking. My plan for 2002 was to breed before 2-year old breeding resumes only if a good value was available as soon as sires were updated. By good value I mean this: some sires undoubtedly had better years than others in 2001, increasing their sim value. But if the masses are unaware of this, under the old market model it might take a while for sire costs to catch up with this. I had thought that sire updating didn't occur until the spring, and was expecting that a good value in a 3-year old horse -- presumably one with stamina/late blooming bloodlines -- might be available. I was expecting that such a value might be so good it had to be taken, and thinking that people might be at their computers waiting to snap them up, literally, in the first 15 minutes after sire updating (in the old system) before the price ticker changed.
Now I'm totally confused what to do. I suppose the first step is to find out who the hot sires were in 2001, first by comparing the RL stats I have on record in a file somewhere with the 2001 and/or updated career stats. This isn't a good week for me to do that though....
Happy New Year!
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