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Subject: SSHR -- Week 1264
Posted by: Toral
- Sustainer [2111201313] Sat, Jan 05, 2002, 12:54
1. I'm happy about Mine Devastation winning a pricey allowance in Aqueduct, 0413. Hoping for a nice 4-year old campaign from him.
2. Just perusing the horse ticker, there are some fantastic bargains on nice sires that still have 2-year olds available today. I'm not taking advantage of them because I don't have any horses I want to disappear.
Reading the SSHR MBs, it seems that a lot of players don't want to breed now for a 2-year old who they won't be able to race for a few months. That wouldn't stop me. If sires are available now, for a cheap price, that might not be available for inexpensive 2-year old breeding in a few months (or weeks) I'll take the sires now and let them rest for a few months. Maybe these same bargains would be available in a few months, when people start breeding 2-year-olds in earnest, but I ain't taking no chances. Looking at the ticker, the Storm Cats and Carson Citys are already bred out. I think that soon their lesser sire competitors will be bred out by this time of the week too. I'd like to take whatever opportunity is presenting itself now to get sires that may not be available later.
Don't know about you, but I'm going to look for a horse in each stable to enter in an easy claimer where he should be taken ASAP, look for a $9 auction special the week after, and plan to breed, perhaps in each stable, the week after that. In fact I might even move faster...maybe some of my stables do have some no-accounts I could spare right now.
Toral |
| 1 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Sat, Jan 05, 2002, 13:48
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Toral -- yeah, I think your strategy is reasonable regarding 2 year olds. Right now is the time to breed top-tier sires if you're going to.
With that said, I think I'm going to wait a couple of weeks to kind of see how things start playing out. I haven't been known to breed the top sires, and my goal at the moment is to try to keep on piling up the points.
Point collection is something I didn't do well at this week, finishing 11-2-1-2-1-1. I need a few more horses, and I also put a couple of nags in competition that was above their heads.
Light Jupiter did continue my streak of 100+ performance weeks, logging a 102.1 -- his 4th 100+ performance for me. But it was only good for third in the A2x race I entered him in.
Tow's Terms is continuing his hot streak, he only ran a 97.2, but it was good for a win in a 4K starter tag. What's the big deal, you ask? It was on turf! :) I actually picked him up because I thought he had the potential to be a turf sprinter. I'm pretty happy with a win at 97.2 over 8f on the soft stuff.
Babified Opossum Tells me that he likes the marathons! This is the horse I picked up because he was a herbager kid and because he had never been tried at routes. After a 38.3 speed at 8f, I gave that idea up. Well, I went back to routes and this guy has not disappointed! A 5th in 91.2 over 8f, a 2nd in 93.6 over 10f, and then a total run-away win over 12f in 82.3 -- his third ever win! I only wish I would have found this horse's niche earlier! I'm especially kicking myself because I picked him up for distance ability and gave up on him too soon. DOH. My only consolation is that his two previous owners were too stuck on his mediocre sprinting ability that they fell into the same trap.
Depending on how claims go, I may pick up a guy in the auction just to get some more horses available. The first breed prospects I have are horses that already have their lineage intact (Chocolate Dump for Madman999, Alyrun Wing for Madman3) so I'm not necessarily looking to breed from scratch. But I have the barn space now, so I might as well give myself the option to breed away. . . Plus, you can enter those $2 horses in 2K claimers.
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| 2 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 40951142
Sat, Jan 05, 2002, 14:37
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Sixth Deputy ran a 110 for the win on 8f turf this week. More later, have to run.
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| 3 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sun, Jan 06, 2002, 13:25
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Great job, with Sixth Deputy, stlcards. I had a feeling he might succeed at longer turf races. Back on August 16, I said, "I like this race, because it is not too far from BC, and is a turf test at a distance he has already run on dirt. Not sure how accurate the sim is with Sunday Silence, but he has bred some stakes horses on turf, and at longer distances. We'll see what happens."
Hopefully, I continue being right, which happens rarely in this game. ;)
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| 4 | cab
Donor
ID: 9115466
Mon, Jan 07, 2002, 01:25
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Toral...I believe that buying(or bidding?) for 2yo races will begin sometime in February....Maybe it is not a silly idea to breed 2yo's now and get a couple of races in before the main 2yo races roll along in April/May?....I don't think i will be breeding for a while now...I think i will try to save up and collect the bp's and try to breed a couple of decent horses later on in the year...
Excellent run from Sixth Deputy, STL!
Not a great deal of success for the first races of the year for me...I am struggling to get itm performances out of my allowance horses now...Even though some of them showed real promise in there first few races...I don't want to run them in claimers cause i know they will get taken no matter what the price(i think anyway)...Parade Shooting got blasted away in a grade three race(13f)finishing 7th(The best of the horses that got distanced!)Kinda sad really because it ruined his winning streak!...I could've found him a much easier race for this week but i had this race in mind for him 6-8 weeks ago....
I believe the standard to win races has risen in the past few months...To win a 2k claimer you need to be near 80sp,or near it...You could win MSW with an 80sp when i first started...Maybe it is a figment of my imagination...
An NWRC update....I am currently second at the moment (by one point only though!) but a long way from the leader...The Cab stable is probably not the best stable to have in these types of competitions...I don't have enough variety of horses and with only 11 tracks to choose from(points only count if you run them at one of theses tracks) i am struggling to find suitable races for my charges,without running them against eachother... I think the best way to attack it, would be to have a bunch of claimers and be prepared to lose them....Claim more,run them as often as possible,lose them and so on...Also need variety...
Something to bear in mind?....When the Equinics are on(wk 1299) a lot of the top horse will be out of commission leaving softer stakes fields for the rest of simworld...Even the week before and week after the equinics...Maybe if you have a horse that is stakes quality(or near it)this would be a good time to run them...Just a thought..
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| 5 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Mon, Jan 07, 2002, 01:48
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Cab -- I think you are right about the increased competition level. I keep swearing I'm going to do some statistical breakdowns of speed ratings over the past year. There are some complicated issues with the idea, but I think any legit trend should be captured with even a basic look at things . . . We shall see. I may look at 3 year old only MSW races, 4yo+ Starter 5K's, 4yo+ 5K under Claimers -- race groups that were well-defined at all points last year. Although 3yo MSW races disappeared, I may look at 3yo+ races...
Sorry to hear about Parade Shooting. Because I spent time doing Gurupie stats, I haven't yet imported this week's info. into the SSS, so I didn't see that. But it happens.
If you are considering breeding, also remember that the recovery rate for 2 year olds will be absurd for awhile -- one race every 6-7 weeks through June, I bet.
Lastly, people should take a look at biagi's stubble, 21705. 62, 60, 61 in 3 turf sprints, so I dump him into a C2L race. Stupid idea, I know, but I was sick of him. Well, he cranks a 81.3. AAAARGH. Still not Stakes class -- which was my standard for 2yo's at the time. But darn it. Now he's got a 4K tag during the protected 3yo season. Oh well.
Just saying it's hard to predict with 2yo's how they will develop, and my guess is that this trend will continue during their early 3's. Not to say we should all be spending a billion races and weeks of stable slots on our failed 2 yo crops. But I am going to give my expensive 300+ point bred horses every chance to fail. Thus, I probably won't purge them out until March or so.
Lastly, good news on Secret Society. He's already improved to "Needs Rest". Hopefully he'll be back in action in early February.
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| 6 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 40951142
Mon, Jan 07, 2002, 02:12
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You don't necessarily have to have a great horse to win in the claimers. I started running Her Atoms ID# 36938 in claimers for the last 2 races. Got a place and a win, and no one claimed him! Why, well a 43SP for the place, and now a 53SP for the win. The last race was a restricted track claimer, so I got lucky there.
Something interesting was that SSS showed Sixth Deputy running 110.0 while the sim shows a 109? I know the SIM is rounding but I didn't think SSS was. Maybe it was a 109.96 or something.
A number of my horses are improving. Hero Grub is running very consistently for me. Nothing great, but I can count on 90's SP in a range from 6f-8f and the last race was over 90SP at 9.5f.
Country Jodie continues to improve as well. Seems to like running in JP. Has been running 90SP+ now that I have her range figured out.
Cryptomile has also started looking better.
A couple of 2yo's show promise. Ally's Logic rates atop the Madman ratings, but with only 3 races run, it is still very early for this one. Ally's King(IRE) looks to be a turf runner and I think will work out pretty well too. Ally's Article on the other hand is going to maiden claimers. I bred Show Me The Green specifically to run at the MO track, where I have a residency. Used Little Missouri as the Sire to show my support. Bred him with a Green Dancer Mare. I think that is the way to go right now. Claim a 5yo+ mare and breed. Only costs 50BP for the mare and the DS and DDS can be worth far more than that. Of course trying to claim one is another story.
As much as I hate to do it, I'll probably be sending a few more to claimers in the upcoming weeks. Some good horses that I claimed, but just not quite good enough to win at the Allowance level. Problem is I don't want to run them unless I can find a race for less than $310 travel, just in case I can keep them, then I want the bonus.
I just missed out on 500BP's in a contest in MO, because I was to stubborn to run one of those better horses in a claimer race. All I needed was a 4th to tie or a show to win the Racing Series in MO. I also screwed up an entry 2 weeks ago that could have got me the win as well. Left off the last ) when entering the password restricted race. Oh well, there's always next time.
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| 7 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Mon, Jan 07, 2002, 03:09
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StLCards -- yeah, I noticed that when testing the program a long time ago. You figured it out -- and it does indeed seem to be correct. Anything above .95 rounds to 1.0 in the SSS, while anything at .9999 and under rounds to 0 in the Sim.
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| 8 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Mon, Jan 07, 2002, 11:35
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The speed ratings for 3-yr old and 4-yr old races should increase during the year, since the mythical "average" horse improves his speed rating by 1 to 1.5 points per month until he/she peaks sometime around the middle of his/her 4-year-old season, according to Andy Beyer. Or am I committing a statistical error here? If 3-year olds generally are improving by a certain amount, should the time of winners improve by the same amount?
Of course I think there is more than that involved. Biggest year ever in the sim = more competitiveness.
Toral
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| 9 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Tue, Jan 08, 2002, 00:10
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You are obviously correct about 3yo speed times improving. You're right -- probably not worth looking at 3yo's alone.
The effect on 4yo+ races is ambiguous, however. Some 4 yo's should improve, yes? But the vast majority of 5yo+ horses have already reached their peak, or should have been in decline.
Interesting info. about the 1 to 1.5 points per month. I am told that the sim doesn't operate under Beyer's theories, but who knows. Almost sounds like you have something there, since that's been my general experience for 4yo's. That would explain why Light Jupiter continued to get better during last year, for example.
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| 10 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 40951142
Tue, Jan 08, 2002, 01:12
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I'm not sure I buy into the horse peaking at 4 1/2 theory, at least in the sim anyway. I would need to see some data to support that. To me it seems the 5 and 6 year olds are running very competitive races and seem to run some of the fastest times. I actually bred 2 3yo's the last week of the season just because I didn't want to be stuck with all 3 yo's. These horses turned 4 at the start of the year. Please don't tell me they are going to peak in 6mos. and start getting slower after that!
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| 11 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Tue, Jan 08, 2002, 01:16
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I appreciate the point about the sim not being "Beyerish" -- but his 1-1.5 pt observation is not particularly distinct to his theories. The general point about 3 and 4 year-old improvement is not a new Beyer claim, but old fashioned horse-player larnin' in the horse racing world (altho there might be debate about when improvement ends). The 1-1.5 pt observation should hold true for any speed rating system that operates on the same metric as Beyer's. And the sim's does. I can't find your (madman's) post on highest figs for 2001 (are thnigs going to be going off the main MB so fast? is that where I saw it?) but I was struck by the similarity between sim highs and DRF highs when I saw it. (The highest Beyer ever has been Secretariat's Belmont win which he originally gave as 148, and now gives as 139 according to the system he has sold to the DRF since 1992).
Toral
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| 12 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Tue, Jan 08, 2002, 01:27
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Highest Speed factor of last year was 130.1, I forget the race and horse.
Yeah, I was disappointed about the rapidity with which stuff falls off the HR board, as well. Makes it hard to have an actual conversation without being there 100% of the time.
I probably should get back to the Madman Stables pages I was creating a long time ago, and put stuff like that on there for posterity's sake.
And there is evidence for StLCards claim that horses seem to peak at 5 or 6. Lots of horses ran their best speed ratings last year despite aging. Stormy Prospector is the most notorious, but almost all the horses in my stables ran PR's.
You want to hear a scary theory? That maybe he's programmed in horses to peak around 4.5 or 5. However, with the numbers of trainers starting over repeatedly waiting until they get a Stakes horse, Mike's maybe had to improve all the existing horses in the sim a bit. Honestly, this was the first theory I thought of when I saw Light Jupiter break 100 for the first time.
Of course, there are lots of alternative explanations -- like maybe previous trainers were being idiots. Or maybe regular work makes your horses get better. Or maybe these guys just happened to get better.
Regardless, I think we can count on the fact that 5 year olds can run some darned fast times, and ditto for 6 year olds. I don't know how much they should really improve, however.
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| 13 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Tue, Jan 08, 2002, 01:43
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On the peaking thing,
1. Even if "the average" horse peaks when 4, there would still be plenty of horses peaking at 5 or 6 or 7. It's like baseball...most hitters peak around 27 or 28, but then there are the Moises Alous.
2. The sim has the odd situation of lots of good horses suddenly appearing from nowhere at 5,6,7,8,9... It wouldn't be much fun if it was downhill all the way for them. I guess that the programming causes many (most? almost all?) to have some room for improvement.
3. I would hope that the programming does have most horses peaking at 4.5 or 5. With the caveat "most", and with the exception for the late-in-life appearing horses.
5. Yeah, 130. Actually a little high, as according to this (page 4 of the document) no one has broken 130 since Groovy. But the top figs are around the same level.
Toral
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| 14 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 40951142
Tue, Jan 08, 2002, 01:43
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I just went and looked at the Eclipse nominations and the nominated horses in the older horse category (which would be the 4 yo's of last year (now currently 5)), and in that category there are more older horses than 5 yo's and quite a few 8 yo's even (7 last year). The turf horses, especially females, seemed to be a bit younger, as did the sprinters, but still not dominated by 5 yo's. What does this mean? who knows? just an observation.
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| 15 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 40951142
Tue, Jan 08, 2002, 01:46
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Top speed figure of 130? I could combine two horse and still not get that high! Oh, one can only dream.........
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| 16 | cab
Donor
ID: 9115466
Tue, Jan 08, 2002, 05:49
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Would route runners tend to peak later on in life..6-8yrs old?...I think it is generally regarded in real life that stamina horses peak later...There certainly isn't many 3yo's winning the Melbourne cup(2 miles)for instance...Wether the sim reflects this is another matter though...
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| 17 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Jan 10, 2002, 08:47
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cab, yes, that makes sense. Route runners are generally considered to mature and peak later. As to what is to be expected of 2-mile runners, I really have nothing to go on as my North American experience has never dealt with really good horses running those distances.
Your comment reminds me of something though. If 2-year old breds are too hard to get, I may try a super-stamina 3-year old breed. I think Madman once pointed out, I would guess correctly, that the sim tends to demand some speed in the mix for a horse to be really good. Darn. I wanted to read some of Mike Helm (?)'s books to learn more about breeding, but they never showed up from interlibrary loan. Designing lineages is different from just assessing them.
Toral
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| 18 | Madman
ID: 68361122
Fri, Jan 11, 2002, 22:38
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As far as my rudimentary research into Sim breeding goes, yes, you have it right, Toral. The Sim requires some speed somewhere in the line. Otherwise, your only hope is to win a 16f race in 50.
In fact, I think the most successful have one marathon influence, and two speeds (perhaps one sharp speed and one middle distance if the sire is speed).
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