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0 Subject: AVG - correlation to BA

Posted by: Chris - [235563022] Mon, Jul 24, 05:13
Here are some stats I pulled from L2. The four tables represent all players in the league with an AVG rating between 491-501, 481-490, 471-480, and 461-470, respectively. The last row gives the average and/or totals of all of the players in that particular category. As you can see, it is getting very late, I will hopefull finsih the rest sometime soon, but for now, these are yours to look at...enjoy!

RatingABHAVG
50116105740.357
50114044930.351
50115195280.348
50114715080.345
50114594940.339
50115425160.335
50115014780.318
50012454310.346
50015555240.337
49913934740.340
4998692680.308
49814574820.331
49715475170.334
49515345090.332
49513344350.326
499.33332144072310.337


RatingABHAVG
488175590.337
48715125110.338
48513664360.319
48515024760.317
48315284930.323
48214814750.321
485756424500.324


RatingABHAVG
48015555150.331
4809413050.324
4806361870.294
4804321190.275
4776651910.287
4767572070.273
47415975470.343
47383230.277
47213884190.302
47115534830.311
47111523540.307
4719112460.270
475.41671167035960.308


RatingABHAVG
47033130.394
4704061320.325
4704571480.324
4708242540.308
46812803960.309
46814044250.303
46815044440.295
4671570.467
4667462230.299
46516455170.314
4648412630.313
4647312210.302
46412083510.291
4637472490.333
46314674560.311
46312663900.308
46214294750.332
466.17651600349640.310


1Put me in, Coach....
      ID: 39416321
      Mon, Jul 24, 12:56 		Chris - Great job.

I was wondering the same thing.
Is there any way you can add to that list a bit. I have a few players in the 450's. Thanks
2Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Mon, Jul 24, 19:20 		Yes Coach, what I meant to say above is that it will take some time, as there are more players per group the farther down you go. I should have those for you soon. You should also note that all of the figures are the players' career averages, not single season...

Anyway, just give me some time and I will deliver the goods... ;-)
3Psycho Joe
      ID: 45518511
      Tue, Jul 25, 00:03 		Good job, Chris, very interesting. And like Coach said it will only get more interesting as you go down.
4Chris
      ID: 44443318
      Tue, Jul 25, 00:31 		Weird...the tables look screwed up in Netscape. The top row is shown off to the side. Anyone else experiencing this problem with Netscape? It looks fine with Internet Explorer...
5Bean Dip
      ID: 86462118
      Thu, Jul 27, 20:27 		Not to nit-pick, but i wanted to point out a small source of error that could throw the data off a little. The problem with using career statistics is that players do not have the same AVG ranking for their entire careers. This could cause significant error in the data. Consider the following scenario: Player A and Player B both develop at the same rate, both have batting AVG rankings of 400 when they are 23, and both have rankings of 500 when they are 30. Player A plays on an awful team with few good hitters, while B plays on a powerhouse. B gets few at bats while his AVG is under 450, b/c there is a player better than he is at the same position. A on the other hand, plays ever game from age 23 to age 30. Since A played more games with a worse AVG ranking, he is likely to have worse career statistics, despite the fact that they end up equivalent in abilities when they are 30.

Hopefully, with a large enough sample, inconsistencies like this will cancel out, but i just wanted to point out how this could be a source of error.

Nevertheless, the data you are producing is very useful, Chris. Thank you.

Bean Dip
6Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Thu, Jul 27, 23:43 		BD - I saw that as well, but had no way of correcting it. The law of averages should help make this pretty accurate, however.

BTW, the rest of the stats will be late, I've been very busy as of late...sorry
7Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Fri, Jul 28, 03:10
RatingABHAVG
4603651090.299
46013183910.297
46011183140.281
459307950.309
45913964190.300
458201620.308
4578462470.292
45611333560.314
4566862130.310
4566862130.310
45613884080.294
456359960.267
45512593590.285
455278790.284
45415514930.318
4545601640.293
45415244380.287
4548532420.284
454273760.278
45316335040.309
45310022860.285
45315134260.282
4537461950.261
4525661510.267
4514631240.268
451189430.228
455.34622221365030.293
8Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Fri, Jul 28, 03:56 		Here we go...I'll try to get one more done tonight.

RatingABHAVG
45031110.355
44915534320.278
4498482170.256
447393950.242
4469352680.287
44612843500.273
4461950.263
446252570.226
4457131980.278
4451930.158
44315854720.298
44312933390.262
4426921990.288
4428972540.283
44112363610.292
44110733050.284
441205490.239
444.82351302836150.277
9Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Fri, Jul 28, 04:13 		There weren't as many people in that group as I thought..I'll try to finish another tonight.

RatingABHAVG
4406391790.280
43913363990.299
43915494440.287
439218530.243
43841160.390
43715954450.279
43713683780.276
43790140.156
436211620.294
436366920.251
43513123860.294
4358712450.281
43514523790.261
43594220.234
43311893340.281
43313023590.276
432225610.271
4327201930.268
43111093170.286
4316881670.243
435.51637545450.278
10Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Fri, Jul 28, 04:23 		The farther down you go, the smaller the sample, because less people start with AVG ratings down this low...

RatingABHAVG
4307161870.261
4287511670.222
427119310.261
42613793610.262
42511933150.264
42595250.263
422360790.219
426.1429461311650.253
11Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Fri, Jul 28, 04:35 		Sleep...who needs it? Keep in mind the sample size (AB's) when looking at the data...

RatingABHAVG
420241640.266
42014973950.264
4192030.150
418305850.279
41815804090.259
417238680.286
417271670.247
416299810.271
4161520.133
41595250.263
41412683500.276
41412993490.269
41411172840.254
4127761990.256
412218510.234
41113133490.266
415.81251055227810.264
12Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Fri, Jul 28, 04:53 		This seems like a pretty good place to stop. Now I've taken care of 401-501 in league L2(which is as good of a representation as any). LTA has said he will contribute his league's(M2's) stats as well. By combining the data, we can get a pretty good feel of what AVG Rating means as far as BA goes.

RatingABHAVG
4105851430.244
408291720.247
4089792280.233
408249520.209
407333780.234
406238640.269
406250580.232
406273630.231
405205420.205
40415823970.251
4034161120.269
4034691170.249
4023260.188
40264110.172
40190290.322
4016551560.238
401360820.228
404.7647707117100.242
13Put me in, Coach....
      ID: 39416321
      Fri, Jul 28, 07:34 		Bean Dip brings up a good point
14blue hen
      ID: 386331314
      Fri, Jul 28, 12:28 		I agree with Bean Dip about career statistics.

So we've established that AVG and BA do correlate at least somewhat. If someone gets bored, here's an idea: Calculate Isolated Power...

(Total Bases - Hits)/AB

...for each grouping of HR and GAP and find out exactly how much they correlate. I think we've found that HR and actual homers are a little off, but someone speculated (indirectly) that isolated power might be related to GAP.
15Chaik
      ID: 426232422
      Fri, Jul 28, 12:50 		Great work, I only have one complaint:

419 20 3 0.150

Let's remove Stephen Logan from the record..... I don't want to remember that experience.

16Bean Dip
      ID: 86462118
      Fri, Jul 28, 14:19 		The more games i watch, the more i realize i have no idea what the GAP ranking is.

Someone had said something about it being one's ability to "hit it where they ain't," or in other words, find the gaps in the opposing defense. If that is true, than it seems to me that people with higher GAPs should have higher batting averages . This does not seem to be the case.

Then I had the idea that it could possibly relate to gaps in a persons swing--the result being that the higher a person's GAP, the less they strike out. This would not be a totally useless quality in a batter, seeing as how runners score from 3rd base on fly balls and ground outs. Also, runners usually advance a base of a ground out. However, i checked out the strike-out leaders (hitters) in the league, and quite a few of them have pretty high GAP rankings. This could be an anomaly, but i'm pretty sure its not.

My most recent thought is that a person with a higher GAP ranking finds the gaps in the outfield, and thus gets more extra-base-hits, as opposed to singles. I think this makes the most sense, and it seems like the leaders in doubles and triples tend to have high GAP rankings.

Does anyone know for sure? It really ought to say somewhere in the game, but i'm pretty sure it doesn't.

Bean Dip

P.S. Thanks again for the charts, Chris. I think pretty much all of us (except for maybe Jaysuade and Renegade Salmon) know so little about the game at this point that any kind of data like this can be very useful.

P.P.S. Chaik--i would not give up on a batter after 20 at bats. My best guess about these numbers is that in the long run, the cold and hot streaks average out, and a person hits for roughly the average they should. Judging by the data, if you keep playing Logan, he will probably get his BA up to the mid .200s.
17Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Fri, Jul 28, 15:53 		In my experience(and this will be my next experiment):

High GAP = more doubles(this I'm sure of)

High GAP + High Speed = more triples(this seems to be impossible to figure out because triples are such a rare occurence)

I'm pretty sure GAP has a strong influence on triples, as I've yet to see a career triples leader(keep in mind, the leader only has 15) with less than 430 GAP. Speed, however, seems to have little or no influence, because I've seen triples leaders with 316 Speed. It could be an anomaly, but from the rest of the people I've looked at, it seems to be the rule, rather than the exception.

There is one very important thing that I need to check. Will a 500-xxx-500-xxx hitter hit more doubles per AB than a 400-xxx-500-xxx. That is, are GAP ratings reflective of the number of doubles per hit or the number of doubles per at-bat. That will be included in my next experiment. Please bear with me whilst I drudge up the data, however...
18Chris
      ID: 235563022
      Fri, Jul 28, 16:18 		BTW, I don't see any point on collecting HR data, because we all know it's bogus and will be fixed soon...
19Chaik
      ID: 426232422
      Fri, Jul 28, 18:00 		Bean Dip- I didn't give up on him, I just brought him up because he was the only AAA outfielder remotely ready when a starter of mine went down. He's only 21 (something like that) so he'll be back up in a year or two.
20Bean Dip
      ID: 86462118
      Fri, Jul 28, 19:55 		I sure hope that GAP reflects doubles/hit and not doubles/AB. It would make a lot more sense that way.

One could ask, along the same lines, whether HR reflects homeruns/hit or homeruns/AB. My guess is that the answer to both of these questions is per AB, but i really don't know.

I think the central question here is what the relative importance of each of the 5 hitter rankings (AVG, HR, GAP, SPEED, HEALTH) is. Personally, I have no idea. If we could get this question answered, it would help a great deal in making and setting our lineups. For instance, who will get more RBIs batting in the 4-spot: A 500-400 guy or a 400-500 guy? Is it better to have a leadoff guy with 500 AVG and 400 SPEED or 450 AVG and 500 SPEED? Does it really matter that much if leadoff hitters and 8 and 9 hitters have terrible HR and GAP rankings if their AVGs are good? Would a lineup of 450+ AVGs and poor HR an GAP outperform a more balanced team that included some folks who got fewer hits but had more extra-base-hits/hit?

I think you've opened a Pandora's box here Chris. Hopefully we can get some of these questions answered and be better managers because of it.

Bean Dip
21blue hen
      ID: 386331314
      Thu, Aug 03, 10:51 		For anyone who hasn't notice, there is a "more data" thread for this data, followed by an "even more data" thread.
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