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Subject: GAP - Correlation to Doubles
Posted by: Chris
- [235563022] Sat, Jul 29, 02:11
Using the same statistical breakdowns as before(491-501, 481-490, etc), I'll list one by one the doubles per hit(2B/H) and doubles per at-bat(2B/AB). I have a feeling that GAP is independant of the AVG rating when it comes to doubles per hit, but the AVG Rating has effect on 2B/H. Let's see what the data turns up... |
2 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 02:18
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This sample size is rather small. Hopefully they will get bigger as we go down the line. Oh well, here goes!
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 501 | 1420 | 402 | 75 | 0.187 | 0.0528 | 0.283 | 501 | 1626 | 535 | 76 | 0.142 | 0.0467 | 0.329 | 500 | 1460 | 442 | 58 | 0.131 | 0.0397 | 0.303 | 500 | 1566 | 496 | 65 | 0.131 | 0.0415 | 0.317 | 495 | 1552 | 525 | 66 | 0.126 | 0.0425 | 0.338 | 499.4 | 7624 | 2400 | 340 | 0.142 | 0.0446 | 0.315 |
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3 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 02:21
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There is only one player in the next category(481-490), so there is no point in creating a table. He has 651 career AB's. His GAP rating is 485. His 2B/H is .144. His 2B/AB is .0353 with a career BA of .246. This seems to be more evidence(along with the table above) that GAP reflects 2B/H. But enough pointless blather, on with the next bacth!
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4 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 02:32
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I have a feeling this data is going to need a lot more studying than the AVG data. I might have to go all the way down to 300 or so because there are a lot of 480-300-300-300 players in the majors. Stay tuned...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 480 | 1315 | 354 | 55 | 0.155 | 0.0418 | 0.269 | 480 | 1427 | 461 | 56 | 0.121 | 0.0392 | 0.323 | 476 | 1353 | 403 | 53 | 0.132 | 0.0392 | 0.298 | 474 | 92 | 28 | 4 | 0.143 | 0.0435 | 0.304 | 473 | 1538 | 440 | 53 | 0.120 | 0.0345 | 0.286 | 473 | 1453 | 464 | 48 | 0.103 | 0.0330 | 0.319 | 476 | 7178 | 2150 | 269 | 0.125 | 0.0375 | 0.300 |
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5 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 02:50
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Good. This is our first significant sample size. There seems to be significant decreasing trend in 2B/H, which is what I expected. HOWEVER, if you look real closely at this data, you will notice 2 anomalies in the 2B/H column. They are abnormally high. What do these 2 have in common? You night have guessed already, low BA!! What does this mean, if this indeed the rule, and not the exception? The hitters with lower BA get the same amount of doubles per at-bat as the other hitters. Therefore, a higher % of their hits are doubles leading to a seemingly abnormal high 2B/H. Take a look at the 2 above charts. In each case, the highest 2B/H player had the lowest BA, and the lowest 2B/H ratios had very high BA's. So it looks like I may have been wrong. Let's see if the rest of my data fits this description...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 469 | 1331 | 409 | 56 | 0.137 | 0.0421 | 0.307 | 469 | 1647 | 543 | 58 | 0.107 | 0.0352 | 0.330 | 468 | 1601 | 400 | 70 | 0.175 | 0.0437 | 0.250 | 468 | 822 | 167 | 27 | 0.162 | 0.0328 | 0.203 | 468 | 828 | 256 | 19 | 0.074 | 0.0229 | 0.309 | 467 | 1534 | 535 | 62 | 0.116 | 0.0404 | 0.349 | 466 | 1613 | 536 | 66 | 0.123 | 0.0409 | 0.332 | 465 | 1627 | 539 | 59 | 0.109 | 0.0363 | 0.331 | 464 | 1565 | 502 | 55 | 0.110 | 0.0351 | 0.321 | 461 | 1584 | 467 | 54 | 0.116 | 0.0341 | 0.295 | 466.5 | 14152 | 4354 | 526 | 0.121 | 0.0372 | 0.308 |
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6 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 03:13
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This seems to fit well my new hypothesis. The 2B/AB is decreasing as we go down, the lower 2B/H are accompanied by high batting averages and vice versa. The BA seems to have no effect on the 2B/AB. So it seems that GAP is reflective of 2B/AB. That is, a player that is 400 AVG and 500 GAP should get more doubles than a hitter that is 500 AVG and 450 GAP, given the same number of at-bats. I still need to collect some more data, although I'm fairly certain this is the case. I would also like to see how many doubles we can expect per AB, based on the GAP rating. Pretty soon, we will be able to give a player an expected performance for both doubles and homers based on this data. For example, a 501-xxx-501-xxx hitter should, assuming 250 AB's, hit .330 or so with 11 doubles on an "average" season. Sure enough, the league leaders in my division are hitting just over 11 doubles a season(with 4 games left).
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 458 | 249 | 52 | 9 | 0.173 | 0.0361 | 0.209 | 456 | 863 | 220 | 35 | 0.159 | 0.0406 | 0.255 | 456 | 1492 | 521 | 60 | 0.115 | 0.0402 | 0.349 | 456 | 1607 | 557 | 47 | 0.084 | 0.0292 | 0.347 | 455 | 1644 | 517 | 64 | 0.124 | 0.0389 | 0.314 | 454 | 1291 | 296 | 44 | 0.149 | 0.0341 | 0.229 | 451 | 1403 | 411 | 56 | 0.136 | 0.0399 | 0.293 | 451 | 1526 | 353 | 47 | 0.133 | 0.0308 | 0.231 | 451 | 1565 | 449 | 47 | 0.105 | 0.0300 | 0.287 | 454.2222 | 11640 | 3376 | 409 | 0.121 | 0.0351 | 0.290 |
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7 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 03:35
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Of course, above I meant to say "give an expected performance for each player for bot doubles and average". It's late...
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8 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 03:44
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This is a much smaller sample and the 2 players with the highest amount of at-bats seem to have an abnormally high amount of doubles, thus contributing to the fact that the 2B/AB is higher than the previous sample. I'm sure if I was working from a much larger sample(ie, more leagues), the numbers would be more accurate. As they stand, they only outline a trend...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 450 | 1604 | 477 | 67 | 0.140 | 0.0418 | 0.297 | 449 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 0.182 | 0.0313 | 0.172 | 448 | 94 | 22 | 4 | 0.182 | 0.0426 | 0.234 | 448 | 627 | 113 | 19 | 0.168 | 0.0303 | 0.180 | 448 | 1003 | 216 | 33 | 0.153 | 0.0329 | 0.215 | 448 | 378 | 83 | 9 | 0.108 | 0.0238 | 0.220 | 443 | 1700 | 600 | 65 | 0.108 | 0.0382 | 0.353 | 442 | 1467 | 495 | 52 | 0.105 | 0.0354 | 0.337 | 441 | 1133 | 288 | 40 | 0.139 | 0.0353 | 0.254 | 446.3333 | 8070 | 2305 | 291 | 0.126 | 0.0361 | 0.286 |
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9 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 03:53
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Another very small sample. I would kill for a larger sample right about now...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 439 | 1089 | 308 | 37 | 0.120 | 0.0340 | 0.283 | 437 | 1613 | 450 | 47 | 0.104 | 0.0291 | 0.279 | 436 | 139 | 24 | 4 | 0.167 | 0.0288 | 0.173 | 434 | 1427 | 429 | 50 | 0.117 | 0.0350 | 0.301 | 432 | 860 | 239 | 25 | 0.105 | 0.0291 | 0.278 | 431 | 1391 | 363 | 39 | 0.107 | 0.0280 | 0.261 | 434.8333 | 6519 | 1813 | 202 | 0.111 | 0.0310 | 0.278 |
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10 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 04:00
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Damn...the samples ain't gettin' any bigger...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 426 | 367 | 82 | 13 | 0.159 | 0.0354 | 0.223 | 425 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.203 | 424 | 1571 | 441 | 44 | 0.100 | 0.0280 | 0.281 | 423 | 1596 | 532 | 48 | 0.090 | 0.0301 | 0.333 | 421 | 1277 | 360 | 39 | 0.108 | 0.0305 | 0.282 | 423.8 | 4870 | 1427 | 144 | 0.101 | 0.0296 | 0.293 |
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11 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 04:12
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I've got a bigger sample this time, and it fits in pretty nicely with the rest of the data. The only one that sticks out like a sore thumb is in post #8...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 420 | 1509 | 398 | 43 | 0.108 | 0.0285 | 0.264 | 419 | 136 | 33 | 2 | 0.061 | 0.0147 | 0.243 | 417 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 0.217 | 0.0476 | 0.219 | 417 | 1378 | 383 | 40 | 0.104 | 0.0290 | 0.278 | 417 | 1336 | 462 | 47 | 0.102 | 0.0352 | 0.346 | 415 | 238 | 50 | 9 | 0.180 | 0.0378 | 0.210 | 415 | 1301 | 352 | 36 | 0.102 | 0.0277 | 0.271 | 415 | 1362 | 422 | 34 | 0.081 | 0.0250 | 0.310 | 414 | 1252 | 363 | 36 | 0.099 | 0.0288 | 0.290 | 411 | 158 | 44 | 4 | 0.091 | 0.0253 | 0.278 | 411 | 1304 | 342 | 27 | 0.079 | 0.0207 | 0.262 | 415.5455 | 10079 | 2872 | 283 | 0.099 | 0.0281 | 0.285 |
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12 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 04:25
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Sleep? I don't need no stinkin' sleep. I hibernate in the winter...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 410 | 44 | 16 | 2 | 0.125 | 0.0455 | 0.364 | 409 | 574 | 166 | 15 | 0.090 | 0.0261 | 0.289 | 409 | 225 | 58 | 5 | 0.086 | 0.0222 | 0.258 | 409 | 1654 | 511 | 44 | 0.086 | 0.0266 | 0.309 | 408 | 1113 | 318 | 40 | 0.126 | 0.0359 | 0.286 | 408 | 1732 | 538 | 59 | 0.110 | 0.0341 | 0.311 | 408 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.286 | 406 | 726 | 201 | 18 | 0.090 | 0.0248 | 0.277 | 405 | 1460 | 384 | 49 | 0.128 | 0.0336 | 0.263 | 404 | 768 | 140 | 21 | 0.150 | 0.0273 | 0.182 | 402 | 932 | 202 | 25 | 0.124 | 0.0268 | 0.217 | 402 | 242 | 44 | 5 | 0.114 | 0.0207 | 0.182 | 402 | 411 | 82 | 5 | 0.061 | 0.0122 | 0.200 | 401 | 1327 | 391 | 40 | 0.102 | 0.0301 | 0.295 | 401 | 1550 | 482 | 43 | 0.089 | 0.0277 | 0.311 | 405.6 | 12779 | 3539 | 371 | 0.105 | 0.0290 | 0.277 |
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13 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 04:34
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This looks like it should fit well if #12 was where it should be...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 400 | 1595 | 412 | 46 | 0.112 | 0.0288 | 0.258 | 400 | 1165 | 265 | 29 | 0.109 | 0.0249 | 0.227 | 400 | 800 | 208 | 18 | 0.087 | 0.0225 | 0.260 | 400 | 1579 | 500 | 36 | 0.072 | 0.0228 | 0.317 | 399 | 381 | 86 | 8 | 0.093 | 0.0210 | 0.226 | 398 | 289 | 84 | 5 | 0.060 | 0.0173 | 0.291 | 396 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.188 | 392 | 1316 | 360 | 38 | 0.106 | 0.0289 | 0.274 | 398.125 | 7157 | 1921 | 180 | 0.094 | 0.0252 | 0.268 |
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14 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 04:40
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This is almost not worth posting...why do i bother?
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 390 | 1479 | 446 | 36 | 0.081 | 0.0243 | 0.302 | 386 | 232 | 49 | 7 | 0.143 | 0.0302 | 0.211 | 381 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.308 | 385.6667 | 1724 | 499 | 43 | 0.086 | 0.0249 | 0.289 |
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15 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 04:57
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I need a much bigger sample for these to be more accurate...That's enough for me...I'm done for tonight...
Rating | AB | H | 2B | 2B/H | 2B/AB | BA | 380 | 280 | 64 | 5 | 0.078 | 0.0179 | 0.229 | 378 | 90 | 14 | 2 | 0.143 | 0.0222 | 0.156 | 378 | 1210 | 368 | 30 | 0.082 | 0.0248 | 0.304 | 377 | 1208 | 337 | 32 | 0.095 | 0.0265 | 0.279 | 376 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 0.167 | 0.0426 | 0.255 | 376 | 1643 | 548 | 32 | 0.058 | 0.0195 | 0.334 | 375 | 410 | 88 | 7 | 0.080 | 0.0171 | 0.215 | 375 | 704 | 225 | 17 | 0.076 | 0.0241 | 0.320 | 374 | 250 | 70 | 6 | 0.086 | 0.0240 | 0.280 | 373 | 429 | 112 | 14 | 0.125 | 0.0326 | 0.261 | 373 | 877 | 271 | 16 | 0.059 | 0.0182 | 0.309 | 372 | 263 | 87 | 7 | 0.080 | 0.0266 | 0.331 | 371 | 315 | 87 | 15 | 0.172 | 0.0476 | 0.276 | 371 | 1227 | 344 | 43 | 0.125 | 0.0350 | 0.280 | 374.9286 | 8953 | 2627 | 228 | 0.087 | 0.0255 | 0.293 |
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16 | Chaik
ID: 426232422 Sat, Jul 29, 10:28
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Nice work Chris. It took a few times through to understand the consequences of it all, but I get it now. We can safely say that GAP doesn't affect Batting Average, and AVG doesn't affect extra base hits. I wonder if triples are an anomaly because there are so few, that it's completely random, or GAP somehow affects it. Anyone know?
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17 | blue hen
ID: 534402321 Sat, Jul 29, 10:46
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Maybe it's speed. But that's a more in-depth comparison.
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18 | LTA
ID: 22652915 Sat, Jul 29, 15:05
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Chris, I get home from Shreveport tonight, and SHOULD be off on Monday and Tuesday. I'll try to send you the info about this from M2 ASAP so we can increase the sample size.
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19 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 15:56
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LTA - I received your BA data from M2. I'll package that with mine and post it shortly. This is straight from the Commish on the GSB message board:
"It is per at bat, but to get the most accurate results, you should compare doubles & triples together. The gap rating affects whether the ball is hit into the gap, then factors such as speed, other base runners, etc. determine whether the batter gets a double or triple."
So if you are collecting data for GAP, make sure that you include doubles and triples instead of just doubles. I'll go back and correct my data. Just send me the GAP data when you are done and I'll include it into my own and post it. Thanks a lot.
BTW, Frank Castillo is tearing it up for you so far...grrrrr. I STILL will beat you by season's end ;-)
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20 | Timing
ID: 586292917 Sat, Jul 29, 17:29
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Wow great analysis on these ratings. I'm curious how you got all of the data? Would it be possible to create a spreadsheet that would track the growth of prospects? Like for instance showing how many ratings points a prospect improved over the last week or somethin of that nature? I think that would be a great tool to have if someone has the knowledge to create it.
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21 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 19:14
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Timing - LTA is currently working on something that will be able to track prospects growth. I have something very rudimentary, but nothing involving macros, etc. I got all this data by using the "Scout Search" tool and putting it all together in a modified Excel spreadsheet that I tweaked to allow for easy HTML table conversion.
I thought of something else. If GAP measure 2B + 3B / AB, then that would raise the BA of somebody with a higer gap rating unless AVG measures singles / AB as well. I'm going to ask the Commish that. If he responds that AVg does indeed measure singles per at-bat, then I will have to re-work all my data, as will LTA. Let me pose this question to the Commish...
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22 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sat, Jul 29, 22:10
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I just re-read that, and it didn't seem too clear. Let me clarify...
A high GAP hitter will have a better average than a low GAP hitter(making it so that a leadoff guy will have a lower average than your standard cleanup guy) if AVG is supposed to represent singles/AB. This won't be the case, however, if AVG measures total hits/AB, with the GAP somehow factored into the equation, so that the singles are "turned" into doubles by the GAP rating. This would seem to contradict the fact that GAP represents 2B/AB. So, one theory says that a 500AVG, 350GAP hitter will have a lower average than a 500-500 hitter(same amount of singles, less doubles). The other theory would somehow have the hitters batting the same average, with the latter having more doubles, and the former having more singles.
That's the question, I still havn't had a response from the Commish.
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23 | Bean Dip
ID: 16654410 Sat, Jul 29, 23:48
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Just logged on for the first time today. You work quickly Chris. Good job. I pretty much agree with what you have said so far. I definitely think a larger sample (and hopefully a little help from the commish) will be neccesary to draw any conclusions. Look forward to hearing if the commish responds. Until next time.
Bean Dip
P.S. The prospect development tracker sounds pretty cool. I have just been tracking a few individuals day-by-day to try to learn more about the process, but that system can obviously be improved on significantly. Keep us updated.
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24 | Put me in, Coach....
ID: 39416321 Sun, Jul 30, 00:54
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Can we elect CHRIS as GURU JR.? or maybe G.S. Jr?
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25 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sun, Jul 30, 02:41
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LTA is out of town, so let me explain the problem(as I understand it) with creating a macro to pull data from GSB. The SW pages are open to all(ie created statically) and the managers pages can be easily accessed. The GSB pages require a password(ie created dynamically) to get to the playes individual pages or your teams roster. LTA is currently working on a way to either bypass this problem or have the macro enter a password(don't know whether either can be done). I have absolutely no knowledge of how to program macros, and I take it LTA is learning the trade right now. But, the word from him seems to be, "Don't hold your breath" ;-)
If anybody knows something about macros, feel free to contribute some of your knowledge, as this project will be awesome once(if?) completed.
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26 | LTA
ID: 40529165 Sun, Jul 30, 05:01
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First, let me clear up any misconception about me and my knowledge of writing macro code in VBA...I do not know how. Yet. I am trying to muddle my way through it, but to sum up, Chris is correct in saying "Don't hold your breath". I can hold my own in writing macros within the freindly confines of MS Excel, due to the Macro editor. However, beyond that at this date, I am wading through info trying to get my brain to absorb it. Give me time, and if you have any knowledge, give me help.
In regards to what I DO THINK that I understand thus far, Chris has summed up rather well. The problem that I am facing is that the pages are all created dynamically by the server upon request after the submission of a password. If I understand this correctly, it would seem to indicate that there is a central database for all the players in the game, but when your password is entered, that password specifies (like a cookie) who you are, what the league is, what the team is and where players are within the framework of that team. I imagine (supposition here) that if we look at the id numbers of the same named player within each league, we will find that they are identical. However, rarely do the developmental numbers match up, at least until they max out...or do not do so owing to mis-use by the owner in developing the prospect. So, a simple web query in Excel to grab the neccessary information is not going to work. When this is tried, you get an ODBC error, which I understand to mean Open Database Connectivity. In short (from what I have read), this is essentially the translator between your flavor of database and other database programs. It is returning an error based on (again, I am going on what little I have had the time to find out here...if you know better, please jump right in and correct, err, help me)the inability to correctly connect with the server to create the specific dynamic web page.
So, I need to learn VBA code well enough to write a macro that will enable me to give the computer the information it needs to create the web page. I am led to believe that this is possible, although a real pain to get right without trial and error. The commish has told me that he would be willing to provide what assistance he could to do this, but that he would be real impressed if we (I) could pull it off. Frankly, in the near future, I would be shocked if I could. However, with the collective knowledge on this board, we could probably accomplish this.
Any knowledge that you want to pass my way, please, do so.
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27 | Chris
ID: 44443318 Sun, Jul 30, 15:55
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I copied and pasted the middle paragraph from post #22 and sent it to the Commish, here is teh reply I received:
"The second one is the case. Both 500 AVG guys will have the same average, but since GAP is 2B/AB, the 500 GAP guy will have more doubles, and the 350 GAP guy will have more singles."
So somehow, the GAP rating "turns" singles into doubles. All our AVG data is completely accurate and indicative of what we can expect a hitter to do. The GAP data must be re-worked to include triples. LTA and I are currently working on that and it should be here shortly...
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28 | Bean Dip
ID: 86462118 Sun, Jul 30, 17:58
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I guess my only question is whether GAP is the only factor that "turns" singles into doubles and triples. Does speed factor in? If not, the only virtue i can find in a fast player is the ability to steal bases.
If GAP is the only factor, this brings up another interesting question: given that a stolen base essentially turns a single into a double, who reaches second base more often, a 500 GAP-350 SPEED or a 350 GAP-500 SPEED (assuming same AVG). If the 350-500 reaches 2nd more often, this would make SPEED a more valuable characteristic in a hitter than GAP, and vice-versa.
I'm not sure how easy this would be to test, seeing as how times on second base is not a given statistic, and also given that people have varying batting averages. Nonetheless, if this somehow could be measured, this may be the first time we could really say for sure that one category is definitely more important than another (or say for sure that they are equal if that is the case), and back it up with numbers.
Tell me if you see any potential for such an experiment, Chris. I would be happy to help you anyway possible, although i'm not nearly as computer-proficient as many of these guys.
Bean Dip
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29 | Chris
ID: 44443318 Sun, Jul 30, 19:06
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Let me make some observations here.
- Speed has no factor in turning singles into doubles or triples, only the GAP rating does that. Speed supposedly turns doubles into triples, according to the Commish.
- Speed is more intangible than that BD. Speed also effects the following scenarios off the top of my head.
-- advancing on a ground ball -- tagging on a fly ball -- scoring from first on a double -- moving from first to third on a single -- scoring from second on a single
So, you see, speed has more to do than just stolen bases. It is impossible for me to test how often a 460 Speed guy scores from first on a double. I don't know how to experiment with that besides looking in every single box score...
- Measuring stolen bases, or even times reached second per AB(via double or stolen base) is tough because a guy can't steal 2nd if there is a runner already there. Therefore, guys on great offensive teams can't steal as much because there are likely more runners ahead of them. Also, CS's are not a stat(yet).
- I don't think there is any experiment possible to determine how much of a factor speed is(ie a correlation between speed and each of the scenarios listed above) unless we go through the box scores and note how many times the lead runner advanced an extra base, scored from second, etc. If anyone has the time to go through box scores and note this stuff, then it would actually make a very good experiment...
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30 | Bean Dip
ID: 86462118 Sun, Jul 30, 19:53
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Thing is, the more games i see, the more i question how much speed affects many of those scenarios you listed. I have only played 2 seasons, so obviously my experience is limited. However, I have yet to see: a runner not score from second on a single; a runner not score from third on either a ground ball or fly-out to the outfield; a runner not advance one base (or advance more than one base) on a ground ball out. I have not paid specific attention to advancing from 1st to 3rd on a single or scoring from 1st on a double, so i don't really want to pretend to know anything about those. However, given that i have had some pretty slow players (low 200s), i kept looking for a situation where i could say somebody didn't score or advance b/c of his speed. It has yet to happen.
I would be very interested if anyone else has specific examples of one of the scenarios i have not yet seen. Until one of those does happen, though, i will become more and more convinced that speed is only marginally useful.
I agree about the problem with people not being able to steal 2nd when the base is occupied. I kind of figured an experiment judging GAP against SPEED would be very difficult to work, but i just wanted to see if you had any ideas.
By the way, what kinds of batter walk a lot? I noticed that many of the walk leaders have high AVG rankings, but this does not always follow. Does anyone know for sure?
Bean Dip
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31 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sun, Jul 30, 20:44
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Here are examples of slow-footed players botching plays:
"McLemore Singles. Peters hits into a fielders choice. McLemore is out at 2nd"(unable to advance on grounder, McLemore speed = 329)
"Soriano Walks. Gonzalez hits into double play."(no speed on either end, Soriano speed =322, Gonzalez speed = 330)
"Gonzalez Walks. Febles Doubles. Gonzalez moves to 3rd."(held at 3rd on double, Gonzalez speed = 330)
"Alomar Triples. Mohr Flies out"(no sac fly, Alomar speed = 386)
"Lofton Doubles. McLemore Grounds out. Lofton moves to 3rd. Peters Flies out. Lofton is out trying to score."(no sac fly, Lofton speed = 338)
Here are examples of how it should be done with fleet-footed players:
"Febles Singles. Williams Flies out. Stovall Grounds out. Febles moves to 2nd."(no fielders choice, Febles speed =432)
"Lofton hits a sacrifice fly. Quero tags and scores."(sac fly, Quero speed = 484)
"Feliz Grounds out. Quero moves to 3rd. Ryan moves to 2nd"(no fielders choice, Ryan speed = 460)
"Lawton Singles. Deshields scores. Lindsey Doubles. Lawton scores."(scoring from 1st on a double, Lawton speed = 432)
Granted, I wasn't able to find an example in this short time of
- player held at third from 2nd on a single
- player advancing from first to third on a single
But there is some solid examples in here that speed DOES matter.
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32 | Bean Dip
ID: 86462118 Sun, Jul 30, 21:04
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Yep. I stand corrected. In fact, I saw in one of my games tonight a guy not scoring from 1st on a double, and another (faster) guy scoring.
The one (of your examples) that surprised me was the guy being thrown out on the fly-out. I still don't think i have seen that in one of my games, but i guess that is just chance. The one i still am sure i haven't seen is a player held at second on a single.
Anyways, i guess that all that probably just means that it will be even tougher to ever prove that one rating is more important than another.
Bean Dip
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33 | Chaik
ID: 426232422 Sun, Jul 30, 22:02
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Actually Chris you can strike one of the instances where you didn't find an example. Runners NEVER advance from first to third on a single, it's been discussed on the GSB message board.
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34 | Chris
ID: 235563022 Sun, Jul 30, 22:35
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thanks Chaik. I also have a feeling that runners always score from second on a single. But everything else is affected by speed, as detailed by my examples above...
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35 | sliced bread
ID: 23456415 Mon, Jul 31, 09:08
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Here's an inning for your thoughts that kind of contradicts itself in a way.
Ordonez Singles. Ventura Singles. Ordonez moves to 2nd. Roskos Singles. Ordonez scores. Ventura moves to 2nd. McNamara Singles. Ventura moves to 3rd. Roskos moves to 2nd. Brown Flies out. Camilli hits a sacrifice fly. Ventura tags and scores.McCracken Flies out.
Notice Ventura who wasn't fast enough to score from second on a single but then tagged up and scored. His speed is 397.
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36 | Chaik
ID: 11623319 Mon, Jul 31, 09:23
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I'd suggest that it was a deep fly ball or a sharply hit single, but I don't know if the game takes that into account. Perhaps it just throws that in the mix once in a while.
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37 | blue hen
ID: 386331314 Mon, Jul 31, 09:41
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From everything I've gathered, even the speed factors are based on odds. Even Bobby Bonilla scores from first on a double, and sometimes Kenny Lofton (the real one) holds at third on a flyout. In fact, it's usually based more on the hitter than the speed of the runner, at least in real life.
I've been wondering about the Walks thing too...
And, by the way, Chris: you've been doing a great job with this, keep up the good work...
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38 | skinneej
ID: 425391611 Mon, Jul 31, 10:44
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Luuloa Singles. Grissom hits into a fielders choice. Luuloa is out at 2nd. Barnes Singles. Grissom moves to 2nd. Mashore Singles. Grissom moves to 3rd. Barnes moves to 2nd. Valencia Singles. Grissom scores. Barnes scores.
Grissom's Speed - 370 Did not score from 2nd on a single.
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39 | Chris
ID: 154381423 Mon, Jul 31, 19:18
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see? I knew I'd seen that before!! Thanks skineej!
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40 | Josie
ID: 4441223 Tue, Aug 01, 08:32
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Hey sliced bread that is my team you are using for examples. Sorry, I just was looking at it, and then I was like, hey those names look familiar.
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41 | Josie
ID: 4441223 Tue, Aug 01, 08:35
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And about scoring on singles. Sometimes the fastest guy isn't going to score from second on a single. Maybe he got a bad jump. Or maybe it was an infield single. Or maybe it was a line drive single right at an outfielder. Or maybe the stupid third base coach held him up. That could explain things. I guess this makes speed less important. But maybe speed determines what happens. Like I dunno Speed 400-500 he scores on a single... 350-400 he is thrown out at home... 0-350 he is held.
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42 | Chris
ID: 25540221 Wed, Aug 02, 17:11
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Walks(as far as I can tell) are ONLY based on the pitchers control. There doesn't seem to be any hitting rating that effects walks. There should be a "batting eye" feature though...
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43 | IQ
ID: 12551614 Thu, Aug 03, 00:27
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Actually, walks are determined partially via the batters ratings. If I remember the Commish's comments correctly, it goes like this:
Higher AVG->Less K's, More BB's Higher HR->More K's, More BB's Higher GAP->Less K's, More BB's
However, there are few enough walks that this isn't as imporant as it is in today's real life baseball. OBP is rarely much higher than AVG in GSB.
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44 | Chris
ID: 25540221 Thu, Aug 03, 01:01
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ahhh. I think you mean less BB's for a higher HR rating, right? Thanks for clarifying...
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45 | IQ
ID: 12551614 Thu, Aug 03, 12:20
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No, actually, for some reason I remember it as High HR->High BB, maybe pitchers are more likely to walk HR hitters(?). Of course I could easily be wrong, I'd ask to be sure.
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