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Subject: AVG/BA - More Data Posted by: Chris - [235563022] Sun, Jul 30, 04:52 After adding more data(from M2), we are getting an ever better fit between AVG and BA. I feel we'll still add data from at least one more league, but for now, here is a table with the expected average given a certain rating based now on data from leagues L2 and M2...
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| 1 | Chris ID: 235563022 Sun, Jul 30, 05:18 |
After looking at this, it seems to be pretty linear. Could the formula be as simple as BA = rating - 150 or BA = rating - 160? It seems pretty feasible that this could be the case. More data is in order though. Feel free to contribute any league you want if you have the time. Just put it in an Excel spreadsheet with Rating, Hits, and AB's. I can handle the rest. Don't feel obligated or anything. The more data we get, the more relible info we can get. Thanks in advance to all who decide to help, and to LTA for contributing his league... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Matt G ID: 3452159 Mon, Jul 31, 11:02 | I don't think it is that simple, especially since each game is simmed seperately. And hits are given according to random numbers, yes with a higher rating you are more likely to get a hit but not necessarily bat with a high average. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Bill ID: 47516715 Mon, Jul 31, 11:22 | i also would like to point out that some people do not follow the -150 avg theory. Some guys on my team hit .330 with a 400 avg rating | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Josie ID: 4441223 Mon, Jul 31, 18:03 | But i think the rule could be used as a rule of thumb. Of course there are anomalies because the game is simmed and random chance is involved somewhere, but as the sample gets bigger it can be proven that AVG directly relates the players actual batting average. SO basically don't start anyone with AVG 350 or less because they will most likely bat less than 200. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Chris ID: 154381423 Mon, Jul 31, 18:59 |
You guys missedmy point I think. The -150 rule is a rule of thumb. Obviously there is one important other factor...the pitcher. But as far as saying that games are simmed separatly, that is meaningless. What I mean is this. Say the guy is facing an "average" pitcher and he has a 490 rating. The the chances of him getting a hit are 340/1000, or .340, his batting average. Over the course of a season, or better yet, a career, these numbers should come closer to balancing out. Yes, you can always find the overacheiver who hits .330 with a 400 rating(was this for a whole season of 64 games? I doubt it, but if so, you are lucky!), btu over the course of his career, his #'s should balance out... MattG - I don't think I understand what your saying. How can you be more likely to get a hit and not have a high average? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Put me in, Coach.... ID: 39416321 Tue, Aug 01, 20:17 |
If you roll a 6 sided die 60 times. Logically it will have each # 10 times each (or 1 out of 6 chance (or .167%) but, realistically one(or more) of the number(s) will come up more often that onther. Therefore, if the #1 comes up 15 times, as opposed the 10 times. that would make the 1 come up .25%. Would that make the sim wrong or inaccurate? no!!! This is what Chris ia trying to say. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Bean Dip ID: 16654410 Tue, Aug 01, 21:46 |
I was about to respond to Bill yesterday, when my computer went on the blink. I got back, and you guys had beaten me to the punch. Still, i will throw in a little more explanation of the laws of averages. As of now, i see no reason that a simple -160 model correlating BA to AVG ranking. Obviously, in any game where stats are randomly generated, there will be folks who lie outside of the normal boundaries. However, just as there are several players who exceed their AVG-160, there are many others who fall way short. In the long run, however, it may well be that the BA of the "average" player is programmed to reflect his AVG ranking minus 160. The more i check out the data the more i suspect that a model like the one Chris proposed may well be correct. Just my 2 cents Bean Dip | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Chris ID: 25540221 Tue, Aug 01, 22:30 | thank you Coach... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Chris ID: 25540221 Tue, Aug 01, 22:31 | thank you BD as well... ;-) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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