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Subject: pitcher comparison Posted by: yankeesRule - [47720613] Tue, Oct 24, 15:01 Player A fast 490 break 450 change 460 control 320 Player B fast 450 break 350 change 350 control 480 assuming they are both starters with 400+ stamina which pitcher would you rather have on your team. Does a pitcher with great pitches better than a pitcher with one great pitch and low control? Anybody have stats on this?? I think Player B would be better, less walks , thus less runs allowed | ||||||
| 1 | Eric Freda ID: 589111318 Tue, Oct 24, 18:21 | Control obviously is most important to me but is only good if the guy has good "stuff". My guideline for a top quality pitcher has always been 400+ fastball and control and 300+ breaking and change. I don't usually ever play pitchers with any stat under 300 since they are always vulnerable to giving up the big inning. | |||||
| 2 | blue hen ID: 34937217 Tue, Oct 24, 18:29 | Hard to pass on the first player. There are a lot of guys who have the 2nd guy's stats. | |||||
| 3 | Chris ID: 25540221 Tue, Oct 24, 19:00 |
The first guy is way too similar to Mark Harriger. I expect this guy to have an ERA between 4 and 4.5. As for the second guy? It is way random, but I would expect him to perform better on average than the first guy does. Just my 2 cents | |||||
| 4 | Baldwin ID: 25440222 Sun, Nov 05, 14:52 |
My Closer Mantei who used to be untouchable is mortal since the new sim. His stats 468 428 423 360. Wish someone would grab some stats and compare something like this. One of these days I'll get down to learning Excel. | |||||
| 5 | Josie ID: 4441223 Sun, Nov 05, 19:29 | I would still play the first guy. I am still not totally sold on control totally corrolating to walks. I have had guys with 460 control throwing 3 or 4 walks in an inning. So, I am still go by the "add all of the ratings up" rule. | |||||
| 6 | Chris ID: 235563022 Sun, Nov 05, 19:38 | Josie, you're setting yourself up for a fall IMO. I will try to do some analysis this week I guess(I'm kinda busy, I'll do what I can), but I'm almost positive that 2 pitchers with the same total rating and different control will be different. | |||||
| 7 | Josie ID: 4441223 Mon, Nov 06, 19:17 | I am sure there is a small corrolation but not enough to warrant playing someone with a lower total ranking IMO. | |||||
| 8 | Chris ID: 131042213 Tue, Nov 07, 10:05 |
There is a very large correlation. Harriger has sucked(4+ ERA every year) in the New Sim despite a total rating of 1720+ because he has control of 320. That said, the second guy isn't a whole lot better. I don't see myself starting either one of them, but then again, my worst pitcher is Julio Rangel ;-) | |||||
| 9 | Whitey ID: 2543539 Tue, Nov 07, 10:14 | I have Harriger on my team and he has been fairly solid in the 2 seasons with the new sim. Maybe it depends how you use him. He has strictly been a middle reliever for me and up an ERA between 3.00 and 3.50 which is pretty good with the new sim | |||||
| 10 | Chris ID: 131042213 Tue, Nov 07, 10:23 | Obviously there will be fluctuation from year to year and "deviation from the mean". I've seen him at 5+ and sub 4, but on average he's a 4.00-4.50 ERA pitcher in the New Sim. Not bad, but not good either. | |||||
| 11 | Whitey ID: 2543539 Tue, Nov 07, 10:33 | So through your research, have you determined that if a pitcher has a low control rating (< 350) than the other 3 ratings are not as significant? If that's the case, then I guess we are back to focusing on control for draft prospects.. | |||||
| 12 | Chris ID: 131042213 Tue, Nov 07, 10:56 |
Whitey...not sure what you mean by less significance, but here's the way I look at things: When evaluating a pitcher, I look at 2 things. Total Rating(TR) and control. If Pitcher A and Pitcher B have the same TR, but pitcher A has lower control, pitcher B will be better, as control is weighted more heavily than the other pitches. Let me give you an example: Harriger: 490-420-480-320(roughly) Bluma: 420-465-350-480(roughly) Both players have about the same TR, but Bluma is for the most part significantly better. In O3, Bluma has a 2.70 ERA in 237 IP under the New Sim. Harriger's is 4.01. Now, that's not to say low control pitchers are worthless or that the other ratings have no significance. Harriger is only around a 4 ERA in the New Sim because of his other 3 ratings. If you gave him Bluma's other 3 ratings, his ERA might be upwards of 6. Another example is Pete Della Ratta of O3. He has stellar ratings, but mediocre control. 498-457-471-388 Granted, he was improving a lot during his first season, but his ERA is 3.17 in 213 IP under the new sim. Someone with a TR that high should be sub-3 for sure, but his control is holding him back. Hopefully you see what I mean. Control is not an overriding factor, but is weighted far more heavily than the other ratings. | |||||
| 13 | Whitey ID: 2543539 Tue, Nov 07, 11:08 | I see exactly what you mean. It's kind of disappointing though when you have a pitcher like Harriger or someone else with high 400s in the other 3 categories and low control and they are mediocre. You wish they would be better, but the sim won't allow it. On a side note, I have Gardner on my team as well and he has a 480 control rating and sports a 7.9 ERA through 3 games. I am hoping he will start pitching like his old self and this is just an anomaly.. | |||||
| 14 | Taxman ID: 04491215 Tue, Nov 07, 11:48 |
Josie refers to the "add up the rankings rule".....just what is that rule and what is the difference between starters and relievers, if any? Thanks and my two cents is that player A has a walk to strike out ratio of 2 to 1 (or worse) and is no better than a .500 win pitcher and that player B gets hammered more often than W C Fields and aspires to be a .500 win pitcher. Another words, diferrent methods of achieving the same result (or less):>] | |||||
| 15 | Josie ID: 4441223 Tue, Nov 07, 16:32 | Chris you rehash the same arguement. I already agreed that someone like Jamie Bluma with a control of 160 more than someone like Harriger would be much more effective. Also, you mention Della Ratta. His control is just under 400 and I would not put him in the same class as Harriger. I think control is much more important under the new sim, however I have still used someone like Gary Goldsmith(480-480-480-290roughly) fairly effectively out of the bullpen, and if you really have a problem with using someone like Harriger in the starting rotation then slide him into the MR slot. | |||||
| 16 | Chris ID: 485172214 Tue, Nov 07, 17:04 |
Josie, I was not rehashing any argument, I was responding to Whitey's post #11. As for your assertion that there is not a big enough correlation to warrant playing someone with a lower TR, let me point out a few specific examples: Michael Corey has a 1657 TR...about 50 lower than Harriger. Corey's control is 496, and therefore he has performed much better than Harriger(3.23 ERA in 220 IP) Same for Kevin Gregg. He has a 1682 TR with 489 control. He has overachieved perhaps, but his 2.75 ERA in 203 IP suggest that he is better than Harriger. How about Sean De Paula? He has a 1575 TR, which is absolutely horrible. But his 497 control has allowed him to mantain a 4.43 ERA in 201 IP. A little above Harriger, but this guy is 150 TR points behind! Again, when I'm less busy, I hope to provide some concrete data so you'll believe me ;-), but I'm kinda busy with school at the moment... | |||||
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