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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1278
Posted by: Toral
- Sustainer [2111201313] Thu, Jan 17, 2002, 14:12
I hate moving, but if Madman says we have to go, we have to go. So I guess we should get this new forum going.
This week, a couple of my new claimers run. One is Prospect Inspire (#54578) off at 33-1 in Rhode Island 7307. I have a theory about this horse. Checking Davarto's Sim Progeny searcher, I see that 2 very good horses have been bred with Inspired Prospect x Famous Star x Riverman. There's Robin Prospect (#22185), a dirt sprinter who puts up Beyers like 111 and 114. And there's Famous Prospect (#48384) who isn't nearly as good but has 5 wins in 10 starts. So this trainer gets the bright idea of breeding the same combo. He runs the horse in a dirt sprint once, and Prospect Inspire puts up a 54. So he puts her in a $2.5K claimer! Talk about no patience.... Anyway I took a flyer on the horse, who put up 54 again at a mile on the dirt. Next chance...a turf route. Famous Prospect has won one of these.
The claimer I like for Saturday, and who I intend to bet on with both hands, is Arctic Bean, who goes off at 10-1 at 6 furlongs in Germany 5803. Bean has only put up 57 and 63 in 2 turf sprints, but is a daughter of Summer Squall. Serious dirt sprinting ability is a possibility.
Just before the deadline yesterday, I was perusing Kangaroo Minstrel's competition in a track-restricted allowance. Mare, mare, mare, mare...hey, why don't these guys run their horses against other mares. The penny clicks and I check the conditions and see that I have entered Kangaroo in a female-only race. Racing to the entries, I see that there is another T-restricted Allowance for guys, and get the entry in -- at 16 seconds before 6:00.
More later.
Toral
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| 1 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Jan 17, 2002, 15:07
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Which (if any) of the existing Horse Racing threads should I move over to this forum? Any? All?
I really don't have any idea as to how useful the older threads are.
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| 2 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Jan 17, 2002, 19:01
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Guru, how hard is it for you to move a thread?
If (a) it's easy, and clutter is not a problem for you, I would say move all of them and leave them. Looking at the oldest ones, I find much of historical interest, even where there is not demonstrable value, in the older ones.
If (b) moving them is tedious, and clutter is not an issue, perhaps they could be left where they are.
If (c) clutter is an issue, at a minimum I would hope you would leave all of them alive for a designated period of time -- a couple weeks, say, so that those interested could cull and copy the parts we'd like to keep. And finally, even if clutter is an issue, a good number of them -- those with early tables and breeding info, should be kept anyway. I would be willing to nominate my choices for keepers, and I am sure other participants would have opinions too.
Clear as mud?
Toral
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| 3 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, Jan 18, 2002, 01:43
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Toral -- Is the 6:00 deadline hard and fast? Or do you have until sometime after 6:00 when Mike runs the race-card program?
HR Fans -- Lots of usual suspects going for Madman stables this week. Unfortunately, the race odds reflect an increasing mis-entering of races for my horses. Grrr. Part of the problem was the bogus "All Tracks" link which prevented me from using my racefinder program. That's really just an excuse. The real problem is that the sim is getting tougher, and I'm not adjusting properly. Oh well, I'll root for some shockers.
Big names going for me -- 100+ runners Alyrun Wing, Jericho Velvet, Tow's Terms, Light Jupiter, Skin Jumping and Val's Desert all take to the dirt or turf this week for me, with Light Jupiter matching up directly against Skin Jumping in a 5K dirt sprint starter-allowance that looks like it might take a 99 speed to finish top 5. Yeah, that's what I said. The competition level in some of these races is sick. I'm actually betting on SJ beating LJ, believe it or not. Got a feeling that LJ is off his form and that SJ is cycling back to the top. We'll see.
I'm actually more interested in American Mint -- gotta get my 3yo crop going -- and Babified Opossum who continues to experiment in routers. Rotten Inn is going for bonus breed points in claimers for me, and I'm about ready to give up on Straight Time unless she shows me something going.
Next week, I'll have a bunch of newer horses going, and I'm also going to try hard for some claims this week; if not there, I've got to pick up some new glue in the auctions. I'd like some 5K or under claimers, believe it or not. My stables are stuffed full of 95-105 speed starter allowance horses. Given the increased competition in those races, at this point, I think going for slower claim horses and piling up breed points is what my objective should be. I say that now, before I get lured into some awesome claims . . .
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| 4 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, Jan 18, 2002, 01:48
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Guru -- yeah, kind of agree with Toral. Some of the older threads with multiple tables probably take up a bunch of space; some of those can most definitely be "weeded" out.
We definitely need the "Stable Review" thread. I think the horse stats for 2001 thread would be good, even though there weren't many posters to it.
As far as the weekly discussion go, it's up to you. I occasionally go back and review them. But it's not critical. The threads that fletch started can probably go; I'm haven't looked at those recently at all.
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| 5 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 40951142
Fri, Jan 18, 2002, 02:28
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I too would like to see most of the horse links remain at least until we could go through them. Some of the early ones have some good information that I review on occasion, most recently it was on dosage calculations. A lot of the great information posts are buried within the weekly threads. I would agree about the threads started by Fletch though. Never look at them.
The Cards stables have some pretty good races this week, I think, or should I say I hope. Both of my 4yo "babies" Carnage Gal and that I bred the last week of 2001 are running this week. Both could win their respective races. I tried to get some endurance in the line so I am immediately racing them longer than I normally would to start. Pleasant Senor is running 1 1/16 mile in TX. Ran a 77@9f fist time out at RTG. Sharp this week, 3d favorite at 6/1 and has the top jock. Carnage Gal(ire)is running also running an 8.5f MSW in NY. Ran a 71 first time out at 8.5f on turf. Sim seems to think she won't like the dirt and she is at 12/1 despite being near equal to the favorites IMO. But what can you tell with just one race in.
Hero Grub is moving back to the starter allowance races this week. 5/1 odds in PA 6f dirt sprint. This will be a tough race.
Show Me the Green - My MO only horse I bred puts his undefeated streak (1win/1race) on the line racing a NW1x in MO and is going off at 3/1 odds. Track is wet this week so who knows what to expect.
A bunch of others running as well including Cryptomile and Sally Plow who I have long term hopes for. Sally Plow hasn't raced for a long time as she just hasn't come up sharp after racing back to back in week 1208/1215. Will run this week to try to get her back on cycle.
Good luck this weekend.
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| 6 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, Jan 18, 2002, 03:01
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To All: There is an ASR "last-man standing" contest starting this week, open to all players -- don't have to be an ASR Member. Pick the winner of a race; last stable with a winning selection wins a nice sim horse. You can enter once for each stable.Go to ASR, click on "The Vermont" on the right hand side of the page. The race chosen as the opener in this contest includes my Mine Devastation as co-favourite. MD has the best recent form of this lot and is picked by Vermont's tip sheet, but it's a mile, and I fear one of the pure milers may pull this out; MD may be better at 8.5-9.
Madman, I strongly suspect everything rolls over at 6:00 game time automatically. I know if you check the Activity Points right after 6 PM, you will see you have Zero. I sympathize with your search for 5K and under claimers; I'm in the same position. I said a couple weeks ago that I was looking for a good campaign this year from Mine Devastation, for example. But thinking that over, I realize that this is impractical. MD is a 95-105 allowance horse. He'll get his 3x/4L eventually, but when he runs through his conditions, prospects are limited. If the auction stays as it is, I think there will be opportunities to pick up cheap claim types who can win N2L or N3L claimers, without having to spend BPs on them. I looked at the auction this week as I have 3 $1 bids in; there are a *lot* of horses not bid on, some of whom have some utility.
Since we're in a new forum, one thing I would like to see always up near the top is a simple list of the stables for each gurupie, now that the Race Day Program can be used to check and see what others are doing. (Mine are toral, larot, toral2, toral6.) The info doesn't take that much space; perhaps it could be assembled in a box, and then cut-and-pasted to the top of each week's new thread?
Other races this week: the Utah tipster likes Barefoot Morris in a $5K claimer in Utah 2701 at 4-1. (If he goes, that makes room for larot's 2-year old. This stable has not bred seriously yet. I'm sooo tempted to put 800+ points right on the table. As Madman pointed out, though, it's probably a bad idea to put all you have on one throw of the dice. Ok, 799 points then :)
City O'Gold, winner of the 2001 gurupie Clint Hartung award [going to be biggest washout 'superprospect'], tries to make his 3-year-old campaign better at Finger Lakes 7810 at 10-1. If you want to see how patient I can be with a horse...take a look at Marisela #21669. I really must do something intelligent with this one sometime.
Burning question of last week: was it a mistake to put #42503 Class Jesting in a 100K claimer last week? He won at 2-1 and was taken. My judgment was that he wasn't fast enough to go far in the allowance ranks and so a good shot at a win was worth the acknowledged possibility of his being taken. Right or wrong?
Toral2 likely to breed a sprinter over a $1 pick shortly. (I forget -- do auction pickups show up after the Saturday update? If so, the breeding could be accomplished by Sunday morning.) Sires being considered include Roar, Forestry, Mining, Polish Numbers, Deposit Ticket, Unreal Zeal and Phone Trick. Any advice, Madman?
Good luck to all.
Toral
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| 7 | cab
Donor
ID: 9115466
Fri, Jan 18, 2002, 03:29
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I would agree with the above comments about the threads....I also go back and re-read them ocassionally...
A couple of 3yo's seem to be my best runners this week...Chief coy in a nwx2 race looks to have a reasonable chance...I would like to get him a race at a mile but none have popped up yet....Blame the run has another go at allowance racing...He failed LTO compared with his maiden win..I hope he can get back on track...
I went ahead and started another stable...Cab35..
Here's what they look like..
Over between meal(ire)...3yo colt
Generous(ire) x Hellios x Solar City
Spoon Snow...3yo filly
Mt. Livermore x Trooper Seven x Key to the Mint
Near of the Orange...6yo male
Sabrehill x Lear Fan x Staff writer
Jodie under slew...6yo male(cpu picked this one)
Runderbar x Slewpy x Reviewer
Peach Quibble(blocked)...4yo filly
Wavering Monarch x Sillery x Two Davids
They all come in with a cpu value of 5k, so i guess i didn't select too well!...This will be a part time stable basically....(whatever that may mean! ;))
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| 8 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Jan 19, 2002, 16:17
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Class Jesting -- no, Toral, you got a good deal there. You got maximum breed points (claiming race), and 100K for a decent but not Stakes calibre horse. The only danger is if he's better on turf, but with that breeding, it's not likely, IMO. Kind of a bummer to lose him, of course, but that's life. It was a gamble worth taking.
I'm also working on a mathematical theory of things that would indicate that he probably doesn't have solid 12+f potential, and maybe not 10f+, which also really limits his ability.
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Madman999, madman3, madman4, rotciv are my stables. Good idea to list them at the top.
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Breeding / Auction Yeah, you are right. The best way to do all this is to get very cheap auction horses. I missed the boat this week, but I will work on it next week. Lots of people dumping horses. I don't quite understand this . . .
Regarding sires, I'd use the SSS, and see what comes up. I don't know prices very well, but I think Polish Numbers can be had for less than 100, which is an excellent deal, IMO. Forestry is a good sim sire, Phone Trick has some good progeny, as well. I haven't had the greatest luck with Mining, but that's not a good reason to avoid him. It really depends on the mix of S, DS, DDS, IMO. Even if you want a good sprinter, you have to get some classic-distance ability in there somewhere, I think.
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My stables had a reasonably good week, I think. I had two horses break 100, with Private Count going 102.1 for her first 100+ performance -- my 11th horse to get triple digits. Light Jupiter as predicted didn't fare so well on the off-track, and Skin Jumping did indeed beat him, but SJ also sucked. I might start dumping him in claimers, despite the low-starter tag I have for him.
Here are two "lesson" horses -- Bart Accordian fared well in a 9.5f on dirt, notching a nice little win in a restricted Starter Allowance. Previously, he had "failed" at a lot of attempts at 9.0 and above. But, if you look more closely at those attempts, these might not have been "failures" so much as off-races. So, what's the "lesson"? If your horse appears to run slightly slower at longer distances, don't necessarily give up. In the sim, horses will tell you if they can't handle the distance by really hitting the wall. If they are just 10%-20% off, this means they likely CAN run the distance, and in decent situations, CAN compete. Maybe it's not optimal, but who knows?
The other "lesson" horse continues to be Babified Opossum, who finished 2nd at 11f, but with an adequate speed rating for an off-track. Every time I see this guy succeed now, I kick myself for wasting so much time with him in the sprints. I know I sound like a broken record, but the more I see in the sim, the more I see people giving up on a horse's route ability prematurely.
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Overall, 14-5-2-1-2-1 wasn't bad. 8/14 in top 3, I guess I'll take. American Mint just isn't going to make a dirt sprinter -- going to try other things now. Probably wasting my time with these 3 year olds of mine. Total waste of 1,000 BPs.
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| 9 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Jan 19, 2002, 16:39
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Can't talk too long 'cause I'm on breeding watch. Moves began happening as soon as the new auction buys starting appearing in people's stables. Toral 2 will be getting a Honor Grades x Full out x Sir Gaylord horse. Moved as soon as the 2-year-olds available went down from 2 to 1. Am on watch for toral stables for another sire...as soon as his 2-year-olds available go from 2 to 1 I move....
Toral
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| 10 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Sat, Jan 19, 2002, 23:06
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CAB,CAB31,PEPE31,BACUP,CAB35
I saw somewhere how to make things bold, but i can't find it...
3yo's dominated the headlines for my conglomerate..Chief Coy continues to improve winning a nwx2 race(86sp)..I had to be patient with him in the early days, when i claimed him and he got injured...I am glad i have persevered with him...Blame the rum(79sp) also bounced back to win his race....My first homebred,allowance win!...Pretty cool, considering he cost less than 20bp to breed...Shazil, another homebred,showed nice improvement running first time over a mile...He has come back to the barn sharp(second time he has come back sharp,after racing) as well...I think this might indicate that he needs to go even further(say10-12f) for his next start?...I won't be running him again this week...
Fourth Bingo was the other winner i had this week...
I'm glad i resisted the temptation to run Danger tow back in the claimers..He ran a 97sp,finishing third in a starter race...He may have some potential,and hopefully will get another win or two...
17 races for 7 itm..Not that great really...
You're right about the auction ,Madman...Are they older players who started new stables hoping to get that "super horse"(after the pool was refreshed)and then dumping the stables?..Or new players who aren't sure what they are doing?(or maybe blew all their cash betting?)...The two i got, both came from stables that looked as though they wanted to got out of business...(Our Ray(cab31,15k) and Crowded escort(cab35,2k)...
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| 11 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sun, Jan 20, 2002, 12:12
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cab that was a nice race by Chief Coy. You guys seem to be having better results with your (now) 3-year olds than me. Sure would like tyo see an "8" on the front end of a speed number from one of mine. I have some real pigs that I'm just going to have to clean out of my stable. I guess I thought there was just some magic in being 2-years old and claimed some bad prospects. Case in point: Granny Becky (#21946) who is now being bred over.
Additional gurupie homebred for other thread: Ministry of Chaos #42397, claimed away in her first race. I be looking to get that horse back. She's bred for distance, but the new owner has been running her at 5 furlongs, obviously with no success.
3 new gurupie homebreds planted (?) last night:
Telephoned Appeal -- Phone Trick x Valid Appeal x Bold Forbes (273).
Full Honours -- Honor Grades x Full Out x Sir Gaylord (211).
Red Tory Theory -- Unreal Zeal x Mt. Livermore x Cornish Prince (211).
It is safe to assume that the Toral megacomplex will be represented in 2-year-old sprints this year. Larot still left to breed, first a sprinter, and then a more classic type horse, but no hurry for that.
Oh, bolding: < b > text < / b > with spaces removed.
Toral
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| 13 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Jan 21, 2002, 02:09
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Good luck with this year's crop, Toral. One thing that seems to be a characteristic of this game as we move forward is that breeding quality horses will be critical. Mike just isn't adding quality CPU horses to the fields, and it's harder to acquire solid horses that once were homebreds in claimers -- people tend to hang on to their homebreds until they are proven failures.
Anyone else in a strange situation with Breed Points? I wish he would reset the #'s, since I can't figure out what I'm earning or anything. Seems like the points have started to really pile up, but I didn't race effectively enough for them. Is this a result of Mike's "bonus" BP plan he announced last October?? Dunno.
I'm at 466 (Madman4), 376 (Madman3), 409 (Madman999) and 477 (rotciv).
I just recently realized I don't have any cheap starter-allowance horses in Madman3!!! Very freaky. It's also stuck at 7 horses, so it looks like it's time to really hit the auctions with that stable and get some claimer horses.
FYI -- I'm at roughly 4.2-4.6 million per barn. I can't seem to get the effort up to get my bets in on time. Gotta start to work the $$$ side of things, since we don't know how the sim will change, and being able to buy great horses in auction would be a nice luxury to have . . .
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| 14 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 40951142
Mon, Jan 21, 2002, 02:42
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Wow Madman, you definitely need to give me some betting advice! I have over $200k but that is about it. I don't bet because I have had no luck at it except for one exacta one time. Most BP's is about 200 in one stable.
This week I had a few shows. Hero Grub ran a 100 for a show. Show Me the Green got a show in MO. Pleasant Senor got a show in TX. Carnae Gal with a place in NY. Those are my highlights, had a few others 3,4th,5h, and some out of the money.
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| 15 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Jan 21, 2002, 12:26
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Well, zgreat has been helping me with bets quite a bit. I don't submit bets very often.
The idea is to get a marathon race where all the horses except one or two have had "proven failures" at a given distance. Then, bet a lot on the one or two. . .
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