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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1285
Posted by: Toral
- Sustainer [2111201313] Wed, Jan 23, 2002, 21:19
cab: CAB,CAB31,PEPE31,BACUP,CAB35
Madman: Madman999, madman3, madman4, rotciv
St L Cards: stlcards1, stlcards2, stlcards3 (+?)
Toral: toral, larot, toral2, toral6
Races are up.
Toral |
| 1 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 00:13
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I also have StLCards and recently inherited Devil01 as well.
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| 2 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 00:22
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Bet: 1285.2712 3 to win or 3-2 Exacta Box or 3 to win and 2 to win. Horse #1 has no chance. Horse #4 (favorite) is a proven failure in routes. Horse #3 should win, but my horse has an outside shot.
Haven't figured out the best way to play this angle, but the odds are greatly in your favor here. Betting #3 to finish 2nd would be another lock, but you'd probably have to put down 500K.
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| 3 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 00:46
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LOL Madman! If I combined ALL my stables I probably wouldn't have 500K!
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| 4 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 01:18
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StlCards -- Hmmm. Well, then I'd concentrate on higher payoff bets than the one I mentioned (horse #3 is 2-1, and horse #2 is 4-1). With any bet, there's always a chance you'll lose, since the horse could get hurt.
The way I built all my stables was to put 10K on an 8-1 or 10-1 and win. This gets you into the 100K range. Do that again with a 25K-50K bet, and you're out of the woods, since it usually takes 100-300K each week to guarantee a 500K payoff. Sometimes, they can be found for 25-50K, but not too often.
Just like in real life, however, getting that initial seed capital built up is critical.
In the above bet, this means you can't play the #3 to finish 2nd bet, unless you want to just slowly get there. I'm guessing the Exacta Box would be the way to go, since the payoff would be decent if you picked it correct. Or, you might go for a 25K 3-2 bet or something. Probably wouldn't net you 500K, but it would be a good payoff.
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| 5 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 05:50
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Take a look at this race...7211...The number 1 is at 9/1 and is the only proven performer at 12f plus(this is an 11f race)...The other 3 don't have a start between them past 8f...A shoe in, imo, providing all is well with the horse..(and there is no hidden talent among the other 3 over distance!)...
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| 6 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 12:12
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Handicapping help needed. As I told youse guys last week, ASR is running a "last man standing" contest. You pick the winner of a race; win and go on to next week, lose and you're "ejected". Well, there were something like 250 entries last week; one of my stables picked a longshot, #3 at 9-1, and became one of 16 stables that survived week 1. Prize is 500K and horse #29857.
Race this week is 3711,
SRF PPs Take a look if you get a chance. I think I see an obvious choice, but am I missing something?
Toral
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| 7 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 12:33
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Toral, If it was me I would probably take COMMANDER GRAND(IRE) from the #2 post. A proven winner, last 2 times out he won by over 4 lengths so probably could have even gone faster. I think Alyville from the #6 spot comes in 2nd a ways back. Not sure what to think of Intoxicated Hulk.
My betting record is not too good, and remember your long shot winner last week, but that is my take on it.
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| 8 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 13:31
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I'll take a look at it, Toral, and report back tonight. I hate handicapping large fields like that. But I like the distance, so I think it's possible to give a handicap that might be accurate here. Congrats! I can't get up the time to enter that sort of contest. Probably should, since there is a lot of bang for the buck -- especially if you just pick longshots.
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| 9 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 15:37
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Thanx for the tip, cab! I just put $27778 to win on the 1. That's half my $500K profit for the week.
Toral (already counting the money)
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| 10 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 18:34
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OK, I made $40K of bets. Rags to Riches!
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| 11 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 21:21
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3711 Madman Analysis:
#1 -- Should be good for a 70-76.
#2 -- 93-94 capable.
#3 -- Unknown max potential. Probably not as good as #2.
#4 -- 73-75 probably.
#5 -- Bad jockey.
#6 -- 85-89 capable.
#7 -- Possible collapse at this distance. If he can make it, probably 70 ish.
#2 is the obvious choice, and the only one I would bet. At 3/1, PP#2, decent jockey, seems like taking candy from a baby.
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| 12 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 23:11
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Ahhh, Taking candy from a baby. I tried that...........................once!
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| 13 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Jan 24, 2002, 23:14
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My auction card is already full, so here's a short list of *unbid* on horses who are worth $1 or more IMO:
44496 -- English Arc -- can win a cheap 2L or 3L dirt claimer, and there are plenty within hailing distance of Kansas in next few weeks.
36359 -- Los Angeles Cover. Well, there is a bid in on this one. $51. Can go in a cheap dirt sprint MC like Wisconsin 92 or Minnesota 99.
30467 -- T Series. Heck, has never raced in a dirt sprint. Worth $1.
These horses may come almost free. But a disclaimer: as Ed Koch warned after Hillary said, "Vote for Bill and you get me thrown in for free", "Sometimes free isn't such a bargain."
Toral
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| 14 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, Jan 25, 2002, 12:31
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StLCards and Madman thanx for taking a look. I am of the same opinion -- 2 is the obvious choice. 11 of the 15 entries (there are actually 18 stables left, not 16) are choosing 2, but I'm not going to pick a loser just to differentiate.
Toral
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| 15 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Jan 26, 2002, 12:47
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Thanx for the tip, cab! A 10% tip is customary over here in cases such as these. That would be 25K for me. You just figure out how I get it to you! Maybe when you next put a donkey up at auction I can put in a bid.
Sure thing Commader Grand faded and lost to the only other likely contender, the 6, in Vermont. So much for that contest! ontarget2 was lucky enuf to have 2 stables alive this week, and so will be one of the 3 stables surviving in that contest next week.
In other HR news....Lost Court was my only winner in a poor week. Place finishes by Dan's Forest, Mosby's Echo, and Hank's Rattles were acceptable. Rusty Trip and Senor Lightning gave stunningly bad performances at the lowest claiming level and head to the auction. Chief Tom ran at .90 hoping to come up Sharp for that elusive sloppy track. If you look at this one's PPs I think you can see that he is capable of pulling off a betting coup if he can just find some mud.
Toral
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| 16 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Jan 26, 2002, 23:18
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Bad week for madman stables, as well. :( I did manage to get 3 winners, but I got sick to my stomach (almost literally -- I've been suffering from the flu :(( ) when I saw how many slow performances I had today. Not only that, but I only got one of my claimers from this week.
My guess is that there has been an influx of new stables. This claiming thing is cut-throat right now. I also lost a homebred of mine -- Sutter's Creek. I know, I know. I shouldn't have put him up for claiming if I wanted to keep him. But I was getting sick of seeing all my homebreds lose, and I think 3 yo races right now are really tough. I thought a 35K tag would deter anyone from wasting 10BP's on a 28 BP horse. Uh, no.
Highlights:
*New acquisition Joe's Machine ran a 92.4, good for 2nd in a 20K starter. This guy doesn't have a great tag, and he's not that awesome, but I'll take it.
Tsultress continues to be Miss Consistency, posting a 91.1 at 12f on turf, good for 3rd.
Exeter Bongo -- a sleeper low-tag starter I have won his 10f Turf starter race, with an 80.9.
I put Pharima(ire) up in a 25K race. Luckily he won. Otherwise, I wouldn't have gotten my BP investment back on him. I had snagged him for 25K in week 1257. AARGH. Curses on his new owner. I mean, how do we expect to earn BP's in claimers if this sort of high-price cut-throat bidding continues? Of course, I snagged him for 25K, so I guess I'm part of the problem.
The homebred I don't put in claimers stinks up the joint -- Miswaki Music. She's going to claimers next time out.
Rakida's Plug and Agriculture Bomber -- geez. Talk about falling on hard times. 'nuf said.
Sal at the Bell cranked a really nice win worth 18.5K, pushing him over the 100K barrier for me. This horse has some ability -- but we'll see if he can survive in open allowances and stakes.
Chocolate Dump I got this horse to breed. I've got to breed him before I shoot him. AAARGHHHHH. Majorly frustrating horse.
Lord Slick(fr) WTF???? AARGH. Trying longer distances. So much for that hope. Hermitz's Rollers lost his bid for 50+ BP. I should have kept him in 5K claimers and risked losing this otherwise worthless bag of bones. Dang it, those BP's would have been nice (he had won 2 claimers in a row).
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| 17 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Jan 26, 2002, 23:22
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BTW, my betting tip in #2 paid $36.50 for $4 of bet. About 50K would have netted you the max gain of 500K. I actually didn't end up betting that one, I went with 1285.7810, basically same deal -- 2-3 Exacta Box. Paid almost 200K in taxes. GRRRRR. :)
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| 18 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Jan 26, 2002, 23:45
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I did make the 3-2 exacta box Madman. Thanks. Also made Cab's long shot bet and a 2-6 exacta on Toral's contest race, unfortunately I didn't box that one. Bottom line is I made $342,500 this week in one stable and should be similar in another. Thanks guys, at least I have something to smile about this week :) Just wish I would have bet in all my stables, just too lazy.
As far as horse racing goes, had an awful week. Watched the races and I think I had one 4th was about it. Am going to go check speeds, claims etc now.
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| 19 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Sun, Jan 27, 2002, 03:23
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Bee stacking provided the highlight for me this week,even though he only finished second, cracking the 100 barrier for the first time...Only my third runner to break 100+....The Clam also went great ,going 97 on a off track, at 6.5 furlongs(a cpu allowance race)...A tip here..In cpu restricted races,the closer your horses' cpu value is to the cpu restriction,the more chance you have of doing okay in the race...At least that is what i have noticed anyhow...I love cpu restricted races btw!..
I'm glad everyone did okay in the betting dept. this week!...I got the max for all my stables apart from Cab35(turned 9k into 59k,a good start though) which i have to start slowly with...
Madman, You posted on the sim board about possible improvements to the SSS...Is it possible,that when you filter a horse by "stable name" that the stats can be changed for that stable only?..For eg..I know that the Clam is near enough to 100k in earnings but i would be interested in how much of those earnings i have accrued with him...Also w/p/s/ stats for that matter...I know it is no big deal, and all i need is a calculator,just a thought...
Toral..Send a cheque, for the appropriate amount, to a charity of your choice!..
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| 20 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sun, Jan 27, 2002, 12:21
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Oh, d*mn. Spoke too soon. My bet profits never showed up! No debit or earnings. I guess I must have made some mistake -- inserted a comma? Wrong race week? *Very* annoying, but there will be other opportunities.
This week, I finally got the SSS fully installed, after a tale dating back to last June of false starts, crashes, and a new computer. It's a lot of fun, and should improve my claiming and auction activities. Had a lot of time at the keyboard downloading and importing, so I worte a couple SRF articles (North Caroliona and Ohio) while waiting.
Toral
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| 21 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Jan 27, 2002, 23:59
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cab -- Thanks for reminding me about the SSS plan there. I will have room for those stats. What I'll do is report W/P/S and $$$$ for each horse for the LAST stable the horse has raced for -- most likely yours, if you look up your own horse :).
The delays may be serious for this next release. Mr. Coker and I haven't totally whipped the formula that reports the Time each horse runs. We're very close, but maybe a few hours away. Also, I can't decode the LB at each fraction yet. I really wanted to put all these features in at the same time, since they will require some reprogramming, and that would be most efficiently done all at once.
Then, I got pretty sick, and I've got a back-log of regular work. AARGH.
So, not sure when it will get done.
Toral Cool. Glad to know you've got it up and running. I can't imagine playing the sim without that sort of info :).
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| 22 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Jan 28, 2002, 00:01
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Stl & Toral -- I've got a stable manager program in Excel 2000 that places your bets for you. Also your jockeys. I put in 8 bets within 15 secs right before the deadline two weeks ago with it. It also minimizes the risk of errors.
I'm working on a revision of it, as well. DANG!! Too much to program, too little time. I think there's a version of it available off of Mr. Coker's site -- MadTrainer. That one's a bit buggy, but the betting routine should be fine.
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| 25 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Jan 28, 2002, 02:06
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Stl -- I erased my response here, and posted it in the golf forum. not grammatically perfect, but hopefully you get the idea.
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| 26 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Mon, Jan 28, 2002, 02:49
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Thanks Madman, I get the idea. Hopefully TSN will address that in baseball if they do something similar.
Now about that claimer program.........
Actually, I think I'm going to do some more breeding soon. I have to find time to research first though.
I have 8 horses sharp in one stable this week so I am going to be busy just trying to find races to run.
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