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Subject: SSHR -- Ongoing Game Evolution / Strategy Thread
Posted by: Madman
- [21020124] Tue, Jan 29, 2002, 03:47
One of the fascinating things about SSHR is that the environment in which the game is played is continually changing. These changes occur for a variety of reasons.
1) Game Growth. In 2001, as many races were run as in the three previous years COMBINED.
2) Financing changes. The voluntary bid process changed the nature of races, somewhat.
3) The modelling of the real-world yearly racing cycle. Horses age, new horses get bred, new owners breed, etc. Fall racing schedules differ from spring ones, etc.
Because this game seems to evolve and change over time, I propose that we discuss any broad environment changes and their potential effects on strategy in this thread. A place to "think out-loud", so to speak.
In that vein, here's the newsflash that spurred this thread. . .
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Starting Feb. 16 -- week 1306 -- owners will be able to run their new 2 year olds. This will be the first set of races for the newest batch of horses, and this will also be the first class of horses bred ENTIRELY with the new breeding rules -- which restricts the number of royally-bred sires quite dramatically.
A quick survey of the first 5 tracks indicates that many owners may indeed be taking advantage of the fact that Mike is allowing people to purchase races. Specifically, I counted 9 2yo races in the first 5 tracks!
My guess is that this is one reason why Mike just added 4 new tracks and 60 races -- to help offset the corresponding reduction in 3yo and 4yo+ races that WILL BE COMING SOON!
1. Is this change enough to warrant strategical concerns? Yes, I think so. We're talking about a potential 10% reduction in tracks for older horses. Yipes.
2. So, what are possible strategic responses?
1. Breed Royal Homebreds ASAP. Once 2yo races get started, everyone is going to realize that they can now race their royal-breeds, and the race will be on for one of the precious 52 or 104 horses from that sire that will be available in 2002 (plus 52 credit horses).
2. Re-evaluate your 4yo+ horses. I think the day is quickly coming when the competitive level for 4yo+ races will become even more intense. A few reasons. First, more horses packed into fewer races, since we have to have a full slate of 3yo only and 2yo only races. Second, the lousy 4yo horses are being eliminated. Getting a 4yo+ Stakes quality horse could be harder than ever. 4yo+ Claimers might start to ease up, however.
3. When should you breed your 2yo crop, assuming you don't think the limited demand is a significant factor? Here, the dilemma boils down to two factors. First, the sooner you get your 2yo, the longer your have to evaluate it, and possibly clean out the stable stall for another horse. Second, breed points. For the early months, you'll be able to get 3 races from your 4yo+ horses for every single race from your 2yo. Furthermore, you can enter claim races with 4yo+ horses. You probably won't have the guts to do that with 2yo's.
Therefore, I think there are two quality ways to play this new game, assuming you're not talking about "Royal" breeds.
First, you can go for the breeding angle. There are two ways to do this. You can try to "cycle" through bargain horses quickly until you find a winner. Run a Maiden Claimer race, and perhaps dump the horse in auction immediately and get cash, breed another, repeat. If you do this wisely, you can gain BP's at a rate that is perhaps moderately competitive with an older horse. But you'll cry when someone claims a future stakes horse you bred. :) The other method is to work your horses more traditionally, and just realize that you're not going to get very many BP's or races in each week. Maybe even consider opening a new stable or two to compensate for this if you want.
Secondly, you can hope that people go over-board with breeding and 2yo race carding. Your strategy, then, is to stay AWAY from breeding, concentrating on acquiring under-priced claimers, and running them back in claimers. I don't think the starter-allowance game will work too well in the near future. But sticking to horses in claimers could bag you tons of breed points. Then, at your leisure, preferrably after the rest cycle for 2yo's is reduced to one race per 5 weeks, start breeding your royals, hoping that you don't have to pay premium prices -- or that even if you do have to pay premium prices, you'll have the BP's to do it.
This second strategy also allows you to breed the maximum number of royal breds.
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Just some random thoughts. This game is a constantly moving target.
My instinct? I'm gonna try to breed using horse lineages here in the next couple of weeks. Going for a few royals. But I'm going to save my real push for April/May, and I'll be working to clear barn space and cycle through crappy claimers more aggressively. I'll just cross my fingers that the Starter Allowance fields don't get any more competitive than they already are.
In May, a lot of my better tags will start to wear off (since I found some good horses back in May, last year), and I'll really hit the 2yo breeding cycle rather hard, hoping to get two "generations" of 2yo's in between May and December -- kind of like I did this year, but this year I had to stick to bargains in my first round.
Thoughts? Comments? |
| 1 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Tue, Jan 29, 2002, 11:13
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An excellent analysis, Madman. Very important issues raised. I confess I am still thinking through this. Some disjointed thoughts (my numbers do not relate to Madman's numbered paragraphs)....
1. Using the Find Races tables, there appear to be 49 MSWs for 2-year-olds carded for week 1206 (and if I understand the bidding procedure correctly -- which I may not, since I don't sponsor races -- that should be all; no more can be added now.) So the decline in races may be a little smaller than indicated above. But considering that there are by my count only 78 MSWs for 3-year-olds, there is a dramatic move towards races for these 2-year-olds. Is this a first-week-excitement thing, or will the numbers grow even higher?
2. I still don't have a good handle on how many 2-year-olds will be competing in these races. It's not unusual to scan the ASR boards and see people announce their new crop of 6, 9 or 12 2-year-olds...in some cases, representing an added group to 2-year olds already bred! A few days ago I was starting to worry that the first fields would be too crowded for my 2-year-olds...let's just say there is more to be found out.
3. The BP loss is something I considered before breeding my 2-year-olds. I aspire to 4 BPs per race (that's under the old system actually). I figure that my older horses are not actually able to run every 2 weeks -- the occasional grogginess or more attractive races waiting a week prevents that. But let's say that the horse you eliminate to get a 2-year-old could run 5 races in 12 weeks. During those 12 weeks, your 2-year-old will likely be able to put in only two. That's a 12 point BP loss per 12 weeks -- one per week, or 52 per year. Assuming your 2-year-olds don't put up more BPs than the worst horses in your stable you have dumped to get them. Can this loss be borne? Well, what is the purpose of getting BPs? For me, at least, it's to breed 2-year-olds. And we have no idea what changes will be made to the breeding procedure this year. So getting them cheaply now, at a time when the sires I wanted were available at the end of the week, took priority. Quite possibly the Phone Tricks and such will still be available at the end of the week in April, but I chose not to take the chance. I'll just have to make up those lost BPs somewhere.
4. Trouble for 4+s coming up? I'm agnostic. Of course, as a claiming stable, I have only 1 stakes-level older horse anyway, so I'm relaxed about it. I will notice it quickly however if my older allowance horses like Gold River and Hank's Rattles find the going harder. If one race for older horses per card disappears, that's 14 horses looking for other spots. I think I can handle that, but we'll see.
5. Strategy for this "new game": mine seerms to be in the middle. My decently bred sprinters are in place. 2 more classicly-bred horses, not top-of-the-line types but hopefully just below, should be added after April -- not sure whether I'll be in a hurry then or not. And I expect to have at least one bargain-breed in each stable sometime this year, but am in no hurry. I think it's probably best, based on what Madman says, to wait for these until 2-year old MCs start, so as you lose 2-year olds, others are available.
I have moved away from looking to starter-allowance types to the type of aggressive low-claimer strategy Madman mentions. Alywagon's regular 1 BP per race just ain't doing it. I have dumped more horses into the auction this year than in the last 6 months of last year, and look for horses, specifically, who can run in a low claimer, at a distance/surface they haven't tried, within $300 of their last track raced at, 1 or 2 weeks after acquisition. The hope is that they will do well, not be claimed, and can go again; I am fully aware that some of these will end up being dumped back quickly in the auction.
There's my thoughts. Hopefully you guys will correct my loose thinking....
Toral
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| 2 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Tue, Jan 29, 2002, 22:59
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Wow...That's a lot of info to digest!...
The bidding on races won't have any impact on any specific type of races(MSW for 3yo's for eg) at this point in time i don't think...The races that disappear due to someone bidding on them appear to be random and depends on how much someone bids...It could be a msw for 3yo that goes or a claim race...It depends how much you bid, and where your bid is situated in the 15 race card, as compared to what the cpu bids are...
The 2yo races carded by Mike,or the cpu or whoever,in april/may? is when it impacts on 3yo races..3yo filly races in particular...if i remember rightly,last year, the number of these races diminished dramatically...
Personally,at this point in time i am not too worried about having females in the stables(or picking them up in claims),however,later on in the year i will be dropping any that are no good and will be avoiding claiming the female variety...
Breeding 2yo's now?....One advantage would be that you get two bites at the cherry i guess...If you spend major bp's now and they tank you get another chance later on in the year...Assumming you can collect enough bp's by then...(I suppose this is what Madman said ,but in a different way!)
Once people see those 2yo's running come week 1306,the demand on the big name sires is going to increase imo...Nothing gets the ball rolling more than people bragging on message boards etc about their their 2yo royalbreds and how well they went at the track ...I saw on the sim board where one person bred 6-8 royal breds last week..The momentem will continue to grow in the next few weeks...Whether their will be "royal" sires left by april/may is questionable i guess..
I won't be breeding at this time..I simply don't have enough knowlege about sires etc(especially the new crop)...I will probably spend 600-800 bp's on a 2yo(in each stable) later on in the year and hope!..lol...Aside from that,breed a few cheapies,with the option of chucking them in claim races...Major bp's can be garnered with itm performnces from homebreds in claim races...(Mooralay variety ,collected 25 bp's in his last race,and that will be added to this weeks points IF i can get him itm again and he doesn't get claimed)
To be honest, this is one change i don't like ...It gets away from the realism...2yo's don't run (i believe) in the northern hemisphere at this time of the year so why change that in the sim?...Now, an option may have been to run them in the southern hemisphere exclusively,when they are running around the track at the moment(irl)...The golden slipper and big 2yo races like that are due to be run shortly in Oz, for example(irl)...
Bidding for races is one way to get your 4yo+ horses into races that they can compete in(without being too restrictive and ruling out ALL other simsters)...You only need to spend as little as 10-12 cents to bid on a race...I have bid on 3 or 4 races in the last month or two...Two of them specifically for the Clam...I could not find a nwx3 race for him for weeks(at a NWRC track) so i made one for him(he finished 4th!)...The other one is the Str race that skin jumping is in this week,Madman...I found a more suitable race for the clam last week so he is not running in it!(I hope you can pull off the win!)
Having credits up your sleeve may be a good backup ..I have 750(i spent 175 or so breeding a horse) odd left, and i would imagine they will last for a while...
The general standard of horse has definately improved, from Stakes horses right down to $2500 maiden claimers...Something Mike has tweaked or the standard of horses being bred?...Afterall,each year there will be more and more homebreds running and it will come a time when there will be more homebreds than cpu horses in the sim...The top 3yo homebreds will be more dominant in 4yo+ races this year i would guess...
Geez, i am rambling!..I should've been at work an hour ago...
Basically though, my strategy won't be changing too much in the next few months i don't think...Like Toral, looking for untested horses in cheap claim races and at the auction will be the focus...(I am actually scanning the auction a lot more than i used to)...The odd time you may get a gem(Parade shooting), a lot of the time they will get dumped back in the auction,but in the mean time, hopefully they will pull in a good number of bp's...
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| 3 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Feb 03, 2002, 04:11
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FYI -- the bidding on 2 yo races for 1313 appears to be slower than for week 1306, but it is enough to freely place your horses, I bet.
In fact, this means that if you have a 2yo, you may want to wait until 1313 to race him/her, since I bet everyone and their brother will be racing the 2yo's that have been bred so far as soon as they can -- 1306.
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Another strategy to consider is whether to enter your horse in Allowance or MSW races. You get hit with a 7 point BP penalty in allowance races -- this basically means you won't get any BP's at all unless you win. HOWEVER, you stand to gain a divisional point. And the fields may be much smaller, since most people will be entering their horses into MSW races . . .
Only 4 allowance races are on tap in 1306, so we shall see. Personally, I'll probably stick to MSW races since that is much more realistic, IMO. But who knows. Depends on the actual field sizes...
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| 4 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sun, Feb 03, 2002, 12:45
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It has long been my plan to avoid the first week of 2-year-old racing just for the reason given in Madman 3. (Altho I may now change my mind, but anyway...) I don't really want to go up against 13 sons of Storm Cat. (Yes, I know that's impossible....)
Oh, and I forgot to count 22 filly-only MSWs in 1206. Lots o'action.
Toral
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