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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1292
Posted by: Toral
- Sustainer [2111201313] Thu, Jan 31, 2002, 20:32
cab: CAB,CAB31,PEPE31,BACUP,CAB35
Madman: Madman999, madman3, madman4, rotciv
St L Cards: stlcards, stlcards1, stlcards2, stlcards3, devil01
Toral: toral, larot, toral2, toral6
Only 10 races this week, as the process of getting rid of horses reduces the number of entries. But more realistic entering than sometimes in the past gives more reasonable chances -- nothing worse than 10-1 except Alsterimist who I figure deserves 1 NW1X try, even at 17-1. Mine Devastation goes to a sprint allowance at 2-1* in NJ 3812. Chief Northern at 2-1* in IY 6313. Mine Gatos at 2-1 in a $7.5K maiden claimer ND7502. Barefoot Morris at 5-1 in ID3006, a $5K claimer, to the inside of cab's Loving That Popper. Gold River at 3-1* in TN7402, a NW2X.
One auction trend I've noticed this week: I've always started my look-through in the auction at the end, on the supposition that lazier players would look through it from the beginning, leaving me some bargains. Obviously I'm not the only person who has thought of this, as looking over my roster of horses I was interested in, there is a strong tendency for under-bidding or no bidding in the middle of the auction rather than at either end. Noticed this last week too, making it a trend.
Good luck to all.
Toral
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| 1 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Thu, Jan 31, 2002, 23:47
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Once again I didn't enter a single horse in a claimer. Just don't want to lose them yet until I really give them a run for their money. Others are so bad, they weren't worth my time trying to find them races this week, barely got the ones entered I wanted to, and made lots of mistakes doing that even.
Seems to be an awful lot of horses entered in races. Hero Grub is going in a starter allowance and is the favorite. I have a couple of homebreds entered that stand a good chance in MSW races. Dusty Colony should finally break his maiden this week. Entered a 3yo homebred into a stakes race even though he hasn't broken his maiden and he is on two weeks rest. The stakes race last week in MO had 2 computer entries which I didn't want to see happen again. I'm afraid this horse is going to come back injured. I think it will be a marginal week, as I only tried to place a few horses well and others I just entered without checking the competition which usually results in poor races for me. Good Luck this week.
Toral - last week of Pickoff. Can we stay in the top 10?
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| 2 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, Feb 01, 2002, 00:57
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AAARGH. Lost electrical power for 30+ hours, and didn't get jockey selections in! Otherwise, could have had some sweet entries this week. Sigh. I guess I should be glad that I got my race entries in at all! I usually enter them Tuesday evening, but did them Monday instead. Got lucky from that perspective, I guess.
Going to run claimer programs and such to see how many nags are out there. Cards were indeed somewhat more complete than I would have hoped for. I'm a bit concerned that Mike is getting a bit too laid back with some of the recent changes he's made for the sim.
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| 3 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Fri, Feb 01, 2002, 01:43
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Actually Show Me the Green does have a win already, so I don't feel so bad about the stakes entry afterall. It is only a $20K purse and mid 80's could win it. So far he has a win at RTG 5.5f 71SP, a 3d at sharp at 5.5f 78SP but on only a good track. A fast track and 6.5f could get this horse a win.
Most of my odds this week are less than 10/1 so there are some good shots at wins. Only managed to sing up or draw into 4 races out of 8 sharp in one stable this week. Oh well, at least I got half in.
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| 4 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, Feb 01, 2002, 08:34
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I'm posting in the midst of a brief resumption of power myself.
StLCards -- have you thought of picking the Pats and doubling? :)
Toral
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| 5 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Fri, Feb 01, 2002, 10:20
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It looks to me like the only way I could not come in top 11 (CPAS will win the midseason so shouldn't count) would be to pick the Rams and double. Is that your understanding that it will be top 11? If that is the case I may just not pick at all or take the Rams without doubling.
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| 6 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Fri, Feb 01, 2002, 11:19
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A couple of entries in stakes races for me this week...Chief Coy goes off at 6/1 in a 7.5 f sprint at Maryland(1308)...He is a chance at getting itm and Parade shooting is at 5/1 in a 2 mile event at Texas(1013)..Actually, at 5/1 parade shooting is a nice bet imo...He will finish itm and has a real good shot at winning(disclaimer!..assuming all goes well!!!)...A few other 3yo's going around this week as well including Mooralay variety(9/2),Blame the rum(4/1),Rainbows end(6/1) and Matai bay(11/1)...
Raindrop Mark(2/1=fav) is trying for his second win as well...It is annoying me that he runs good races generally, but he can't get the win!
Had a bit of a scan for bets this week...Nothing solid stood out...If you want to have a wee wager, have a look at these races though:
4709- No.7
6603- No.7
3207- 1-2-5(box trifecta)(cost 6 bucks)
4815- 2-4(box exacta)
Like i say, I wouldn't punt the farm on these ones,they wern't standouts...The tri and exacta bets might pull in a few bucks for little outlay if they come in...
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| 7 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, Feb 01, 2002, 12:42
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StLCardsI believe it's top 10, (I don't think Guru has committed to giving oput an 11th prize to compensate for a midseason winner in the top 10) but your no-double-Rams analysis seems correct...If this 10-only assumption is correct, however, the 2 people immediately below you (including me) can't do anything weird (like picking the Pats) if they want to stay in the top 10, so I think you're pretty safe. Anyway I'm sure the Rams will win, so I'm doubling them. Why not? I'm hoping for a coffee mug, myself....
Toral
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| 8 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Feb 02, 2002, 01:21
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No way I could pick against the Rams and be able to remain living here or even watch the game in good faith, so Rams it is for me. I think they could only beat themselves.
I'm hoping for a hat. Got my other one signed at the World Golf Championship (the one that was cancelled on 9-11) by several golfers and now I can't wear it golfing anymore.
Good luck this weekend in both football and horse racing. I am really hoping I win that 3yo MO stakes as the tipster snubbed me for even a show.
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| 9 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Feb 02, 2002, 10:08
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Yes, I see Show me The Green gets no respect, while the SRF picks cab's Parade Shooting. Little tip info out there with the delayed entry deadline.
Buyer beware: I do like Chief Tom who finally gets a sloppy track 2101 Michigan at 7-1. Last week he was on .90 effort.
Question of the day -- it's 10 A.M. and the Update light is flashing. What can be updating now?
Toral
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| 10 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Feb 02, 2002, 13:09
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Not sure what was updating at that time.
The lack of jockeys hurt Madman stables this week, I think, although the damage wasn't crucial. I also forgot to place my bets. AARGH.
At any rate, Tow's Terms cruised to a 5 length win with a 103.0 speed rating, good for his third consecutive win. My personal best winning streak so far, I believe.
Skin Jumping cranked his second ever 100+ speed rating, with a personal best 103.7 at 5f. Guess he likes the short stuff.
I was very encouraged my new acquisition Georgia Park. I paid $13,500 (and 5 BPs) for this horse, and he just repaid me $6,720, plus 10 bp's. More importantly in his FIRST race over 8f, he cruised to a 95.4 speed win. Hehehehe. Hopefully this 6 yo has some more left in him. I've got a hunch he's got 100+ speed over 8f (he's gone 100+ twice AT 8f). At any rate, with a 10K tag, he should be competitive in routers if he can make the distance. So far, so good.
Jericho Velvet finished second (94.0) in his race. It was an off-track with a bad jockey. Figures.
Babified Opposum Might have gone as far as he can go. He ran a 71.6 at 13f. I think I'll try to keep him between 10-12f until his tag runs out. Then, I'll try him again at the really long options.
Light Jupiter fell apart, but it was my fault. He was on a sloppy track, and I wanted to give him a route test. Honestly, the fields are getting so packed in the starters (under 10K), that it is just tough in those anymore.
Interestingly, the horses I had in 10K+ starters had TINY fields. FYI.
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| 11 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Feb 02, 2002, 14:26
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Show Me the Green broke for the wire too late and came up short coming in a dissapointing 4th.
Hero Grub got nosed at the wire for a 2nd.
Hardly Piddle nosed out a horse for a distant 2nd.
Either my horses have lost a step, the competition is getting better, I'm placing my horses poorly, or not choosing jockey's is killing me. I think I need to tinker with the jockey settings more. I meant to change Hot Republic from the back to about 70% to see the effect, but forgot. He always closes really well, but is so far back (whether I set it or a top jock rides him) that his charge comes up short. I think finding the right setting for a horse may alleviate the need for selecting a top jock each week.
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| 12 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Feb 02, 2002, 15:40
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StlCards -- yeah, getting the setting right can alleviate the need for a top jockey. But selecting your jockeys doesn't take very much time.
Remind me to re-post the MadTrainer2000 later this week. Gotta make a couple of adjustments for the new tracks on it. You can enter your jocks real easy and quick with it.
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| 13 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Feb 02, 2002, 16:11
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Bad week. Mine Devastation did win the $22,400 (hey I got nothing else to do but learn new things) Allowance in New Jersey at 6.5, showing some distance versatility. Only win. 1-1-2-0-2 in 10 races. Don't know what I need to do different, but I need to figure it out soon. Blew $75K betting on Chief Tom, for whom I will now have to look for claimers. Maybe the sim didn't pick up my bets this week either, but I doubt it somehow. Boy, losing that bet last week makes me see like this. Chief Northern, Gold River and Bead Pick all fizzled. For some reason I was cheered by the 3rd of #54578 Prospect Inspire. Now if I can just get the horse to win that claimer I have scheduled next and sneak past the claim box....
Do I need Excel 2000 for this jockey/scheduler utility? I guess that's the next thing I should buy. Did I see an Excel 2002 out? Should I buy it, or is it buggy?
Toral
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| 14 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Feb 02, 2002, 23:20
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Yep, Excel 2000. There is Office XP (Excel XP, Word XP, etc.). I have no idea if it is worth it or not. 2000 and 97 serve my needs fine. I got 2000 free with my machine, and paid $28 for '97 on Ebay. If I can get XP cheap (i.e., free or $28), then I'll do it. Until then, Bill Gates can (bleep bleep).
I'm betting that the sim has been a pretty tough place for just about everyone lately, toral.
If it makes anyone feel better, this last stable update didn't treat me well. Amad's Spades came up INJURED after being RTG last week. Good grief, he didn't even race. Alyrun Wing came back to the barn Layoff!, which means that I maybe should consider sending him to the breeding shed ASAP (He's a Storm Bird progeny, that's one reason I got him to begin with). I've got a ton of horses Layoff! or Needs Rest at the moment.
I hate focusing on bad news with games . . . Good News -- seemingly my lone 3 year old runner, Secret Society has been looking very sharp in workouts this week, and I'm likely going to enter him in the GIII race this weekend (assuming it gets carded). Might go for the G2 race if the field looks weak. He would have to win the G3, or finish #2/3 in the G2 to keep alive any of his triple crown hopes, I think.
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| 15 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Sun, Feb 03, 2002, 02:20
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A few highlights...A lot of low lights!
Highlights....Mooralay variety finished second(in a sizzling 57sp!)but by my calculations snapped up 58 bp's....All this goes on the line next time out as well...Maybe a good idea for new homebreds is to tank them for 3 or 4 races in msw and then figure out what % to run them at, to get itm performances in claim races?...I didn't do that with Mooralay variety though, he is naturally slow!...
Although Chief coy ran third in his stakes race, he turned in a career best 96sp...A whole lot better than a lot of my older horses...
Danger tow turned in another 90+ performance,coming in second...
Dream pick ax provided the only win this week,finally breaking out of the maiden ranks...
Bets: one win from 3(parade shooting hurt me)and also got that exacta...Ended up with a profit in the end...I made a boo boo with the trifecta...I wrote down the wrong race..Sorry bout that if you took it(the race was meant to be 3205...2 of the 3 got itm)
Lowlights...
Parade shooting put in a shocker,finishing fourth..don't know what happened to him,he really should have won that race...Perhaps the 96sp a few weeks back was a fluke?...
Blame the rum also bombed..he could ba a frustrating horse!...
Raindrop mark is up to his usual tricks...Comes with a late burst but never manages to overhaul the horses in front..
Yankee Alphabet heads to the Equnics next week!...He doesn't have a show but there were no nominations for the 16f dirt event from NWRC so i volunteered him just to make up the numbers...
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| 16 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Feb 03, 2002, 03:44
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Cab Regarding Mooralay Variety, you got any confirmation of the BP total you got? I'm calculating 34 BPs. Still a very sweet take. Here's how I got it:
Last race: 2nd place = 12 points,
bonus 5 points for breeding without using another pedigree,
-2 penalty for track trip
=> 15 points
This race, you get +2 for same track, +12 for 2nd place, +5 for breeding = 19. Add to this the bonus for last race, and you get 34 this time around.
Am I missing something? These rules are wayyyy too complicated.
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| 17 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Sun, Feb 03, 2002, 04:25
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I made a point of writing down the yr/earnings(87) before the update, Madman and then subtracting it from the updated yr/earnings(145)...Since my only other runner in that stable ran nowhere i assumed Mooralay variety got them all...I will check the rules page out again...I think you get 10pts for itm finish in a mclm race and also another 10 pts for finishing itm in any claim race...
I have noticed over the past few weeks a few anomolies between what i think i should get and what i actually get(always to my advantage!)whether some of those bonus bp's are somehow getting into the yr/earnings instead of the "points have" total, i don't know...The bonus bp's are still coming btw..
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| 18 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Sun, Feb 03, 2002, 04:54
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These are the two paragraphs that cover pts received for homebreds....
"Add to that, a 10 point bonus for a horse you bred WITHOUT USING another horse's pedigree that finishes either first, second, or third in a Maiden Claim race. Also, you will get 10 points if your horse debuts in a maiden claim race and finished in the top 3.
Add to that, the following modifier if you (and ONLY you) bred the horse (regardless of whether or not you have owned it for it's entire career), you currently own it, it is running in a claim race, and it either did NOT get claimed out of the race or it was the horse's first race :
You bred WITHOUT USING another horse's pedigree
1st 7 pts
2nd 5 pts
3rd 3 pts
4th 2 pts
5th 1 pt
There is also another modifer for horse bred using another horses pedigree...
1st 3pts
2nd 2 pts
3rd 1 pt
4th 0 pts
5th 0 pts
i actually got 25 for the last race: 12pts for the 2nd place + 10pts for itm/mclm race + 5pts for claim race/2nd - 2pts for travel..
For this race i got 29..12pts for 2nd place +10pts for itm/mclm race + 5pts for claim race/2nd +2pts for running at same track
Total 29 +25 =54(darned if i know where the other 4pts come from!)
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| 19 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sun, Feb 03, 2002, 12:53
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Where are the new rules for bonus for running back in claimers -- but the basic ones on the Help/Instructions page, but the new ones? I've lost them.
Toral
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| 20 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Feb 03, 2002, 14:07
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Good question, toral, about the new BP rules for claimers. Don't have any idea. They used to be in a special link.
Cab -- hmmm. Interesting. I didn't recall that you got 10 points for just finishing ITM in a maiden claim race. Wow. I'd bet that it is much easier to keep 3yo's than 2yo's with this strategy, too. That actually may be a decent idea -- take your homebred and place in a MSW race. If he runs like pure garbage once or twice, find some soft MC races and hope for the best. Most homebreds will probably break their maidens quickly in MC races. Probably a good idea to start hard and work your way down, since the longer you can stay in them, the more you get BP bonus points. Wow. Good catch.
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| 21 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Feb 04, 2002, 00:50
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Gosh darn. No decent G2 or G3 races for Secret Society this weekend. Dang. He could have waxed the G3 field this past week, which was won in 85. AARGH.
I guess I'm going to enter him in a Stakes race, going for as much purse money as possible -- likely 30K winnings if he can pull it off. 3 divisional points are better than none. Plus, this is his first race back from injury. AND, he's been historically a bit up and down, although I think that has more to do with race-placement than anything else.
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| 22 | cab
Donor
ID: 230261920
Mon, Feb 04, 2002, 22:41
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Toral...Since the rules disappeared from the message board i haven't seen them anywhere else...(Maybe they are buried in a thread here,somewhere?..
From what i can remember though, this was the basic criteria...
1) Must have finished itm in previous race(claim)(Am not entirely sure about that tho)
2)Must finish itm in current race(claim)
3)Travel costs can't be more than 300 dollars
4)Can't be claimed from the race
Any others?...
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| 23 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Tue, Feb 05, 2002, 00:08
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5) You get bonus points for the number of races your horse has run / 5. I had almost forgotten about that one.
That's probably where the extra bonus points come from for your horse, Cab. (48 v. 54) . . .
I want to find those new rules. I think I might have posted them in this forum somewhere. . .
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| 24 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Tue, Feb 05, 2002, 00:12
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I just BUTT'd the other thread. That is VERY important info.
Note that you have to travel LESS Than $310!!! for the bonus to hold. Plan ahead for Mooralay Variety's next race, cab!
Geez, this is a mess.
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