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0 Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1299

Posted by: Toral
- Sustainer [2111201313] Wed, Feb 06, 2002, 22:17

cab: CAB,CAB31,PEPE31,BACUP,CAB35
Madman: Madman999, madman3, madman4, rotciv
St L Cards: stlcards, stlcards1, stlcards2, stlcards3, devil01
Toral: toral, larot, toral2, toral6


Six-tenths of a stable for sale. Price -- reasonable.

Like I promised, I'm being more aggressive about getting my horses down into competitive levels, even if it means dropping them in claimers below where I would have before. So toral stable alone has 6 horses up in claimers this week, 5 them running in an odds range from 7-2 to 6-1. Up for sale includes last year's putative star homebreed, City O'Gold Sob! Don't take him, cruel world!, going for $75K in 2115 Michigan, which he should win at 6-1. Also with the "For Sale" sign on them are Alywagon ($5K, 6-1), Polish Tune ($13.5K, 6-1), His Speeches ($4K, 9-2* favourite, but won't win), Biter Don ($5K, 7-2), and Caustic Hunter ($5K, 11-1). Don't know what's going to happen on Saturday, but it'll be worth finding out! Earl Gal is in a 4-horse starter allowance at 3-1.

10 horses running from the other 3 stables, including Kangaroo Minstrel in an utterly undecipherable stake (4914), and my recent daughter-of-Summer-Squall pickup, Arctic Bean going off at 5-1 in a $45.2K MSW for 3-year-old fillies, and 3 allowance hopefuls.

Good luck to all.

Toral
1Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Wed, Feb 06, 2002, 23:55
I think I'm really screwing up my horse placement. The odds against me this week . . . Yipes.

10/1 (Aggie Bomber, 7809), 9/1 (Another Buster NY(ire), 3607), 13/1 (DDay, 0706), 17/1 (Judge Wad, 2504), 13/1 (Sal At the Bell, 2415), 21/1 Zarb's Pass (6810), 13/1 Exeter Bongo 7903, 24/1 Snow Storm 7903, 10/1 Val's Desert 3310.

Secret Society faces a reasonably tough but small field in The Astute Air Stakes in Michigan. Anything from 1st to 4th is possible. This is probably a "bell-weather" sort of race for him. If he wins, he's definitely G2-G3 stakes quality. If he loses, well, then I'll have to stay in lower-purse stakes or allowance fields. At least I know I'll get $3,750 for showing up.

I'm really looking forward to watching Ballroom Blitz run in DC in 7707. 14/1 odds are long, but the field is not unbeatable. You never know with new homebreds. She might be a "Miswaki Music" total flop. Or a Secret Society waiting to bloom!

I need to do a "Toral-like" cleaning. Most of the horses I've got going today are just pushing it to not be in claimers. And, given the hope for extra BPs, probably SHOULD be in some level of claimers.

But, like Stlcards, I hate combing the claimers every week, and would prefer to own my horses for awhile. I've still got 5 empty stall spaces . . .

BTW, I'm pretty sure I'm going to try to acquire some very cheap glue in the auction this week. I think I'm going to breed some bargain-priced 3yo's just for fun. I'll do this in Madman3 and either rotciv and/or Madman999. I think there are some decent deals from bargain sires out there.
2StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 00:21
Only race worth mentioning is Sixth Deputy, race 0109 in CA. Moving him back to a 5.5f dirt sprint after the nice mile turf run LTO. It was a track restricted race with a big purse so I thought what the heck. Going off at 7/1 against some stiff competition. 4 other horses rated higher.

Got shut out of at least 3 races this week.
3Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 00:39
StlCards -- saw that on the boards. What's up with getting shut-out? Trying for popular distances / races? When you say shut-out, are you saying that you got shut out of BOTH entries for a horse? Or just the primary race?
4Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 00:51
BTW, Another Buster NY(ire) is one of my "adjustment" claims. I've found it more difficult to acquire good quality, low-tag horses. So I'm experimenting with a new strategy of trying to get extremely lightly raced horses. In Another Buster's case, he won his first and only race and the owner entered him in another claimer ($35,000). So I went for it.

Of course, I'd rather have Sutter's Creek back instead (my homebred I lost the same week for $35K). :(
5StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 01:30
Shut out of both and shut out of only 1. The 1 was a 2mile turf race where I was running back at the same track as before. Didn't dream it would fill up. The other horse was shut out of an MSW primary and secondary entry. The 3 one was a screw up on my part, although I think in another stable I was shut out too, maybe another screw up. Just dissapointing because the one I was shut out of I was hoping for a good race even though he ran last week. Maybe just as well. Not much going this week at all. Ho Hum. Should be more time to look at breeding.
6Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 01:44
A 2-mile turf race filling up???? WTF??? Never seen that before.

The MSW's -- 3 yo's? I'd bet 3yo races are going to be staked pretty heavily. Like last year, however, 3 yo only Stakes races may be pretty slim.

Or it may be the Equinics. At any rate, I was surprised to only see 4 horses in the highest purse dirt route race for 3 yo's this week (The Astute Air Stakes).
7Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 10:54
Madman, Good Luck to Ballroom Blitz. That's some bargain dam-sire you have there. I suppose I could just steal that idea, but when I do my bargain breeding (more towards summer), I'll try to have some fun finding my own diamond-in-the rough. In Michigan, jockey Sylvester Wilkinson rides City O' Gold one race after steering Secret Society in your stake. I hope Wilkinson isn't just "mailing it in" in the last race. When I went to the races a lot one year about 5 years ago, I was intrigued by a theory about the last race on a card. The second last race on most cards is the feature of the day; the last race is usually some cheap claimer. The theory is that for veteran jocks, the stake is the only thing in the day that gets them excited; for the last race, there just anxious to get their silks off and go home, and so look to some apprentice or some young jock who's still willing to put in a full effort. Like most racetrack theories, there's probably a grain of truth in it somewhere; I had good success with a young RL jock named Neil Poznansky, on closers, in the last race.
Hmm, looking over others' cards...What's Val's Desert doing on the dirt? Is this an intentional strategy, that is, alternate turf sprints with other distance/surfaces and get a good turf sprint every second time out? (Sounds interesting) Or just an absence of appropriate turf races, except for one stake and a *$4M CPU allowance? Horse is going to be asking, "What is this stuff, anyway"? Snow Storm could shock everybody at 24-1 by liking 8.5 on the dirt. Taking a look at your placements, your horses are too good to throw into claimers; the toral stable is of much lower quality. And I actually love combing the claimers; it's my favourite part of the game.
StL Cards that's some rotten luck you've had in race placement. I hadn't realized the limited application of activity points. I would think that where you've got an active residency, the residents as a group should be able to have a say in the carding of races, at least to avoid strango cards like Missouri's.

Toral
8Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 13:03
"What is this stuff, anyway? Hahahah. Yeah.

Because Val's Desert has gone 100+ for me already, and because he's got a decent lineage, I'm looking to see if I can turn him into an Allowance runner. This means I need to know as much about the horse as possible. For those types of horses (as opposed to claimers for points), I usually do not trust race results from previous owners. ESPECIALLY race results achieved in the horse's first few attempts in 1999.

What I saw in VD was a very, very good Maiden run on dirt at the mile -- faster than any turf run he had at the mile until he joined my stables! I then see a failed stakes race in the second attempt on dirt. Duh, his second race. And it also looks like this guy might only be good at 8f or less (although I still want to stretch to 8.5 and maybe 9 again if possible at a later date).

Thus, the only "true" failure this guy has had on dirt was his third race in 746 -- a 73.5 at 8f. Was the initial maiden run a fluke? Or this one? Amazingly, even that slower attempt was still commensurate with his turf-miling ability at the time.

Therefore, I am operating on the assumption that this horse does NOT have a turf preference, and I'll do that until he proves me otherwise under MY training.

His previous trainer was clearly kind of dense with respect to this game. This horse's first over 9f race was a 12f -- too big of a jump. He totally failed at that distance. He then runs the horse in a 9.5f stakes race -- where he has already failed before and is coming off another sign that he can't handle distance. Then, instead of testing at 10f or 11f, he goes for 14f. Not surprisingly, the start% goes to 100% and this horse dies on the track.

At any rate, it's because this guy forgot that this horse was a sprinter that I was able to get him. He hadn't run a sprint since 928 until I ran him in one in 1250. . . I intend to keep him short most of the time, but as you suggested, there weren't many decent race alternatives for him this week, so I went with a replication of his Maiden race to see what he's made of on "this stuff" :)

Snow Storm -- I hope so! Actually, I've got a hunch you are right. Based upon his start percentages, there's no indication that 8f is a problem, or that 8.5f is a problem, especially after LTO. That leaves the question of dirt/turf ability. To that, the only evidence we have so far is 1138 v. 1166 -- two identical distances relatively close together, separated by 5 speed points. Given that 2 year olds are developing reasonably rapidly, and given that the second race is the later one, I take this as a sign that he can run on either surface reasonably well, in all likelihood.

With that said, his breeding is toward turf, and I'm betting his long-run survival in the sim will be based upon his ability to race 8-12f on the softer stuff. But there wasn't much carded on turf that was a good fit for him, so I went with the dirt try.

P.S. I'll try to leave Wilkinson so sky-high after his Stakes race that he'll run the board and get you a win, too. :) We can hope! He's a good jock.
9StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 2504849
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 14:08
Maman - I see you brought Sal at the Bell to MO for the Stakes race. I almost entered Sixth Deputy there, but the competition looked pretty good. Also, I am now operating on the theory that there is indeed a "class" penalty. Therefore, I plan to run through all the options on Sixth Deputy before trying any kind of stakes race.

Hopefully this week he turns in a good effort in his sprint. LTO for his great turf run at 8f I manually set his starting % to 0.4. I never changed it from last week and now he is running a short sprint. I wonder if .4 is still the right setting given the change in distance? When is the last you can change that? and what are all of your opinions?
10Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 14:20
StL Cards According to FAQ, "Jockey Instructions are pulled in : 6:00 pm EST on Thursday Night".

This could be an interesting experiment. From what some old-timers have said on the boards, I gather that they think .40 instruction for a 5.5 sprint is like saying "go to the rear of the pack and wait there". I would have cut it to .20 for a sprint myself, but have little experience with that type of change....Sixth Deputy appears to like to come from behind anyway so it may not be deadly.

Toral

11StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 2504849
      Thu, Feb 07, 2002, 14:37
I have a question about the starting %. It seems to me that it would be related to how fast the horse runs out of the gate relative to some max. speed figure for him during the race? Or is it stay in the last 20% of the pack out of the gate?

I have a horse that I set the % to "from the back". Problem with this is there were some real dogs in the race and the slower they ran the slower my horse ran, presumably to stay "in the back". He made his late charge but was so far out he never had a chance.

If on the other hand it is a fixed % of speed, then for the same final speed figure for a race, say an 87SP, then the starting % should always be the same time.

Any ideas which it is? Could make a big difference in how I set this.
13Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Fri, Feb 08, 2002, 00:13
StlCards -- Yipes. Yeah, I had forgotten I went for a stakes race. Sal is about out of his conditions, however, and Stakes races were about all that was left in his area. I went for the lowest purse race I could find. I didn't check the card. Yipes!!! Unbelievable. He's gonna get killed. His only hope is that he's a lead horse and maybe he'll be good enough to sneak away a bit and still finish top 5. Dunno. Should be a fast one.

Regarding the Start%
I'm pretty sure it's a percent of speed. But it isn't totally fixed (how's that for an answer!). If you set the % at something the horse doesn't like, or that is particularly bad for the race, the speed rating will suffer dramatically.

For example, if you're in a race with all crappy horses but one great lead horse, if you set your reasonably competitive horse to be "at the back", the lead horse will run away and hide. Your speed rating will suffer.

If there are 10 other Buda With the Slews in the race all set at 100%, and you set your "Wanna be Glue" horse at 100%, you're totally dead meat.

Too many horses doing similar things wears you down. On the flip side, the fastest speed ratings for speed horses happen when there are 1-2 other speed horses who just aren't quite as good pushing the leader. I'm pretty sure this is in the game. This is why you'll often see mega-ratings from lead horses when two horses take off together and totally dust the pack, but then one horse drops off, and maybe one closer gets close enough to keep the leader running.

Perhaps most interestingly, for a variety of reasonably solid mathematical reasons, I'm becoming more and more convinced that a horse's optimum start% increase with distance (conversely -- decreases with distance).

You'll also find that if the horse is "feeling it" that day, the start% will be somewhat less, usually, if he's a kicker, or somewhat higher if he's a leader.

I personally wouldn't ever set a jockey percentage for a distance that he hasn't run at. But if you do, I'd shrink it a bit the shorter he goes. He's been at 36% and 39% for 5 and 6f, respectively. So I'd probably go for 40%, or maybe 30%, if I manually set it for 5.5f.

Very interesting you set his start% manually LTO. Figures, since the 48% he started with in that 8f race was lower than the 58% he ran at 6f.

Honestly, I don't think that particularly helped him, but who knows. He had a crappy post position.

Sorry this is too late. But I don't think it's critical, one way or another assuming you have a great jock.
14Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Fri, Feb 08, 2002, 00:40
This is interesting. I don't know this start% learning at all. Of course, I just recently downloaded the great SSS.

Madman, without asking you to explain start% to me (I assume I should digest your instruction page first), is your start% info hacking into the sim?

Toral

15Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Fri, Feb 08, 2002, 03:00
The start% comes directly from the raceout.zip. I forget which field it is, I think #4 or #5. It's the one right after the speed rating (that is coded).

Mike has to put it in the raceout.zip, since it is so critical to how the race evolves.

I should also note that there are two distinct ways of looking at start%.

First, there is the start% you type in and instruct the jockey to ride. I don't know that for sure in the SSS, and that is the # that really matters strategically, since that is the # that affects how your horse will finish (i.e., the speed #).

Through some convoluted process, Mike uses that # to calculate a speed factor for the race, and then creates a race out of everything. Once he figures out which horse will run how fast (or maybe simultaneously to that decision), he adjusts the start% parameter that he reports in the raceout.zip to give us a more interesting / realistic view of the race. This is the start% in the SSS.

It turns out that there is a strong statistical correlation (pretty sure) between the start% in the SSS and the start% you select for your horse. However, they ARE NOT the same. This is obvious because Mike has to adjust your horse for the race, the jockey won't read your instructions exactly, etc., etc.

My guess is that the closer you are to your horse's max distance, the farther apart the two start percentages get (your instructions vs. SSS). I.e., if your horse cannot got 9f, even if you give him a start% of 0%, he'll still have an SSS start percent close to 100% if you put him in a 16f race. Why? Because Mike has to do that to have the visual effect of a collapse for the horse over the longer distance. His speed rating will be pretty danged awful, too.

That would be an interesting experiment to run sometime (force an over-distanced horse into a slow start to see what happens). Even if that particular part of the theory doesn't hold (which is pure speculation) I have noticed a general trend toward higher resulting start percentages as the distance increases, as well as a tendency for horses to hit 100% or at least to be well-above their natural tendencies when they "hit the distance wall". Obviously, this is all for the SSS's start%.

And, if you think about this, it is obvious for the reasons I stated before. The only way to have a horse die in the second half of the race is to have a half-way decent (speed rating*start%). This is the SSS's start%. (note also: speedrating*start% is the variable that controls most of the variation between horses for the first half of the race). The only way to get that without giving the horse too high of an overall speed rating (which you can't do if the horse can't make the distance) is to give the horse a very high start%.

I'm sure I have something wrong in the picture stated above. But I've seen enough and predicted enough horses correctly that I feel relatively confident I have the general gist down, even though the specifics may be off here and there.

Lastly, I should note that just because the REALIZED start percentages increase with distance doesn't necessarily mean that the start% you enter should increase, as well. Frankly, I almost never enter start percentages manually, so I just have no idea about when they err more often than not, so my theories on that dimension are merely educated guesses. Whereas the other theories mentioned above are "well-educated" guesses. haha.
16Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Fri, Feb 08, 2002, 04:04
Bet -- I'm putting 10K on #6 in 1299.6810 to show. Don't put your farm on this play, but I think the odds are good. There are a lot of horses in that race with proven failures over the distance, or start percentages that are quite high coupled with "never been raced" over 9f. It'll put my theories to the test. Just a "for fun" bet, meant to be packaged in with your other normal plays. I figure 10K down will probably return $100K.

Only reason I'm not putting the bet on him to finish #2 is that I'm worried that he may be kind of erratic himself. (This is Zarb's pass we're talking about).

I'll try to post better bets if I find them in time. Normally, I wait for advice from zgreat, and if I check my email right before races go up Saturday morning, I place 'em. Unfortunately, I normally don't have time to check that stuff until later Saturday.
17Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Fri, Feb 08, 2002, 18:03
Toral -- in case you check here and not the ASR boards, Mrluck left you a message over there -- he liked your SRF article a lot.
18StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Fri, Feb 08, 2002, 23:04
I bid on two $1 horses in the auction. If you win, when do the horses get added to your stable? I want to breed them Saturday afternoon, is that possible? This is my first foray into the auction.
19Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Fri, Feb 08, 2002, 23:31
They will be added Saturday afternoon, at the same time as new claimers. You can breed over them between then and the time the Sunday updating starts (usually afternoon, occasionally morning). So you can turn them around immediately.

Toral
20StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 00:04
Thanks Toral. Looks like you'll get your coffee mug and I'll get my hat. Still can't believe the Rams lost though.
21Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 11:27
StLCards, Ive been looking at the merchandise selection, and a hooded sweatshirt is pretty hard to turn down too.

Do you think the hats have one of those plastic strap thingys at the back, or a good leather one?

Toral
22Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 13:11
Good golly. A horrible day at the races. One collapse after another. Sal At the Bell finished #2 in the Missouri Stakes race. Secret Society fell apart, and Ballroom Blitz tanked it. Haven't found a decent performance yet. I was pushing the envelope a bit too hard.

Only good news is that my bet -- on Zarb's Pass paid off -- $7.70. Not as much as I was hoping for, but decent. Only put $10K on him, but at least it was something.

No raceout.zip, so I can't even survey the damage.
23Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 13:12
I see that cab's Equinics runner, Yankee Alphabet, was distanced, but that he had a number of winners today -- Pepi Undercut, Billie Legend, Rapid Clam, plus seconds from Lord Serpentine, Rule in the Burns, Clam Carnival, Explosive Miner. A great day. First gurupie Equinics runner, and lots of win/places to boot.

Toral
24Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 13:15
Not great day for me either, Madman. No winners. Zero,zip,nada. However 4 2nds and 4 3rds in 17 races, so not a total disaster. Looking at (searching for?) a bright side, I was pleased by Arctic Bean's good 2nd place in a pricey MSW, 3315. And...well, and none of my horses died, AFAIK. City O'Gold finished 3rd. I won't be that troubled if I lose him. Guy just can't win.

Now waiting for other shoe to drop, with claim results...

Toral
25StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 13:56
Bad day for me too. Sixth Deputy never made much of a charge and wound up 5th in a 5.5 short sprint. Time to stretch back out. Mama Junior (also from the devil01 stable) was beaten to the wire for a second. Nothing else of interest except a 4th in a 4 horse track restricted starter allowance. Easy pts for a bad horse.

Did breed 1 bargain breed and hopefully will breed 2 more this afternoon when I get my auction ponies.
26StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 13:58
Toral I have a hat already and I will look at the strap. I had to put it up because I got it signed by some golfers last year on 9-11 at the WGC in St. Louis.
27StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 23:24
Toral I looked at the hat and it is actually a cloth strap that is part of the hat and has velcro on it. It is a very nice hat, but that sweatshirt does sound nice.
28StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 23:26
I put in for 4 2yo's today. All bargain breeds except for one. That one I used Wavering Monarch x Medieval Man x L'Enjoleur.
29Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 23:35
Man alive, I want to forget this week. Just got the final tallies, and they are incredibly ugly. Tons of these horses are going back into claimers. I've gotta go 100% for breed points.

I put in bids for 3 horses that hadn't received any bids up until Friday night. Of course, I don't get a single one of them. Some idiot paid $70,000 for one of them. Totally absurd.

I also thought I was concentrating on horses that wouldn't be TOO attractive to others. And I had horses running same track for some of them. Of course, I get almost totally shut out. I was happy to acquire King North for $50,000. Yeah, that's right. I had to pay $50,000 to get a freaking claimer. Unbelievable.

Why am I still glad I got him? He's proven low-90's at 8-9f on turf, and has a $2,000 tag that will last until Thanksgiving. I hope to find enough very low-tag starter allowances to keep him in my barns.

You want to see how stupid claimers are getting? I couldn't keep Hermitz's Rollers. Granted, I put him in a $2,500 claimer. But he paid $5.20, and he definitely wasn't the favorite. He ended up 8th in the freaking race. After finishing 11th last week. Good riddance. Although for awhile there I thought he'd be a useful claim-type.

The only good luck with claiming was that Zarb's Pass didn't get claimed. He finished ITM for the second race in a row. Unfortunately, the first time he was in the top 3, he lost 13 points in travel expenses. Because his fastest race (ever) is 77.2, I'm hoping to keep him for awhile and do the BP rack thing. He doesn't slow down with distance, so the key is to find races where he's at ridiculously long odds because of his slow speed ratings, but where all the competition has proven failures at marathons.

Geez. Just a bit PO'd at getting my arse kicked in this game. Dang this is hard.
30Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 23:58
Ah well. As you pointed out last week, Madman, things have been tough for everybody in the sim lately. You're still making mincemeat of most of us railbirds.

I lost 3 claimers. Alywagon leaves. I will be putting him in my Terrapin JC Entry Mail list, and if the new owner tries running him in a $5K N2L, I'll pick him back up. We can play tag with him. Otherwise the new owner will have to find the starters where Alywagon's reliable 70-75 (at any distance)can make him worthwhile. His Speeches and Mosby's Echo were also picked up. None of these horses did anything in their farewell appearance.

Picked up 3 claimers to fill their spaces. Lox (#51196) is a horse I had wanted in the auction a couple weeks ago, to do just what her owner did, throw her in a cheap claimer as she had only one (previous) start. Judging by her performance (49 SP), she may go back in the auction after one more race. Seattle Rat (#13156) may become my first broodmare (Saratoga Six would be the DS.). She arrived set at 0.00 (from the back), and so her first may not indicate her ability.

And it's 2-year-old time! Full Honours, although not being trained for this week, showed up sharp, so I guess I'll send her out. Youth must be served.

Toral
31StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sat, Feb 09, 2002, 23:59
I agree Madman Hard indeed.

It almost seems like something has changed. I was just starting to do well I thought and then all of a sudden all the other horses are finding speed that never existed before it seems. About 3 or 4 furlongs it looks like my horses are standing still while the others surge ahead, yet most of the time their SP's are about the same as in other races. Somewhere an influx of stables came in or something as these races seem to get fuller all the time. I think I am going to go claimer routes now too. Hate to part with some of my nags, especially ones with good breeding stock, but I really don't want to hold on to them for one or two years until they are old enough to breed. Too bad there isn't a reserve I could stash them at somewhere.
32Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 00:43
A Sharp 2yo?? Count your lucky stars and let's roll! Hope you have better luck than I have with my homebreds lately.

StLCards -- When you watch a race, look for the 25%, 50% and 75% marks of the race. The 50% mark is key, since that is where the horse's speed # starts to take hold and the start% importance drops off.

If you horses are running the same speed #'s and same start%'s that they were before and they still look like they are standing still, then this means the competition has really up'ed it.

Somewhere an influx of stables came in or something as these races seem to get fuller all the time.

You know what I think it is? First off, I'm not sure he's kept up with new stable growth. But even if he has, I'm pretty sure it's the race-carding thing. People are buying too many races with basically nobody running in them.

Yes, there were tiny fields before. But all the distances/surface combos were usually covered, and you could PREDICT where the small fields were going to be -- 16f races, and other less popular distances.

Now, the smaller fields come from purchased races almost exclusively, I bet. Absurdly tight restrictions.

This results in 14 horse fields in 16f races. Why? When a 16f race finally gets carded, everyone rejoices and jumps on the chance?

In the race categories that I used to specialize at -- starter allowances, 8-16f, the # of races has just TOTALLY dried up. A horse like Brown Bro used to be awesomely competitive. Before 1236, she'd only experienced two 10+ horse fields for me in starters. Since 1236, all 5 of her races have been 10+ fields.

I dunno. This is just speculation. But whatever is going on is not good for the sim, IMO. If I would have found it this hard to acquire horses when I started, I would never have gotten the ball rolling, and would have dropped out like JKaye (Has he dropped??).

Yes, I know that new stables have a claim advantage. This is probably one reason why I'm having trouble with claimers -- I think a lot of new owners are out there. This goes in waves, and I kind of remember a wave in the later fall, as well. Unfortunately, many people quit their old ones and start over. I don't mind that on an occassional basis for some particular reason, but I do mind it as a habit. Regardless, I can't believe it is easy for a new stable at the moment. I have half a mind to open a new one and see what it's like.
___________________________
Grrrr. Not gonna get beat. Another weekend means another week to come. I'm going to keep adjusting strategies. I've got some big-gun horses going this week -- the rocks of my barns (# in top 5 for me / # of tries) -- Jericho Velvet (9/12), Tow's Terms (10/10), Light Jupiter (13/17), Private Count (12/14), Bart Accordian (9/11), brown bro (11/13). If I can't hit the boards with those guys, I had better quit (I may wait a week on Tow's Terms, depending on whether or not there's an 8f low-tag turf/dirt race available). I should also note that I really only had three "rocks" going for me this week -- Secret Society (I hope he qualifies as such), Tsultress and Sal at the Bell, and all 3 finished top 5 for me. (BTW, Aggie Bomber is hurt AGAIN! That barn has almost no BP -- 425, and I have a couple of royals that I want to breed in there. AARGH. Two injured horses with great lineage -- Alyrun Wing has also gone down).

BTW, Jericho Velvet's 5K tag is going to wear off after week 1313. :( Then his tag will jump to the price I paid for him -- 13.5K. Not sure what I'll do with him after that. He's been such a great horse for me . . . oh well, I'll cross that bridge when it comes, and work it week by week.

Adjustments: Entering horses in a lower level, and risk losing them. Going to hit the auction on Wednesday, Thursday AND Friday -- even for my $6 horses. Which may no longer exist, so I'm willing to pay up to $5K for a horse that I won't do anything for besides breed (yes, I'm desperate).

Other than all this, I don't know what to do. I've got a few young horses clogging my stables right now, but I hate to part with them since they may develop (Snow Storm, American Mint, Key West, etc.). Miswaki Music is hitting the MC's hard and fast, but otherwise, I dunno. Geez. As we all apparently agree -- HARD.
33Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 00:51
One more thought -- I mentioned on the Game MB that the pace for 5K claimers has risen by about 2.5 points since January, 2001. This means that it takes an average speed of more than 80 to win a typical 5K claimer these days (dirt sprints). AAARGH. (when I evaluated the races for Jan-July 2001, the figure was right around that -- 79.9. But this is more like 82 now).

Just a stat to keep in mind. Obviously 4yo+ races. 3yo and 2yo much less.
34StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 01:07
My current strategy is to go with youth and a few of my better horses. When I look through my stables I have a hard time choosing who to part with. Looking through my StLCards stable I can find 2 out of 10 that I don't mind parting with. I have fun with the other ones for some reason or another. Only run in the 80's and some low 90's, but I can still get them ITM on occasion.

Most of my real nags I have bred over already. My latest bargain babies will probably go to MC early on. Only cost around 16BP's for 3 of them. Tried to breed mainly for endurance for those long claimers. We'll see how that goes.

Hero Grub is sharp this week. Ran a 102 LTO for a 2nd. I think I'm going to hold her back a week and hope she comes up sharp next week for a track restricted race in KY in 1313. That sounds like a lucky week to race in.
35StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 01:35
Looking over my stables I realized that my home breds are actually some of my best horses so far. One horse Ally's Article is not very good and going to MC right away. She has come in 9,9,10 in 3 races. My other 5 hombreds have a record of 15-2-3-6-1-1 with a 7th and 8th place as well. 11/15 ITM and 13/15 top 5. I'll take it :)
36Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 01:41
StlCards -- just did a "stable review" for your StlCards1 stable. Giving you the cold, no-holds-barred assessments. Lots of horses there that probably won't make it unless they go into claimers.

Your homebreds do indeed seem to be solid, and they are the things you should probably build your stables around. While they develop, I'd concentrate on piling up BPs with claimers in the other stalls. Then, breed some royals in late summer. Just what I'd recommend. Easier said than done, I realize.
37StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 02:10
Don't stop there Madman. I'd be interested to know which ones you think should go to claimers? I plan to eliminate Retired Dan, but decided to wait till next week. Dinky boy already went to claimers the time before last and this week I just ran in a T race with a starter restriction (4 horse race). Nine Rally is a problem for me. Ran a 93 awhile back, but the biggest problem is Forty-Niner x Riverman. I'm seriously considering holding until next year to breed with. Probably not worth it in the long run, but I know he would be claimed in his first race.

I'm open for sugestions and won't be offended. Please shoot away.
38StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 02:12
oops, just saw the other thread. AM going to read it now. thanks.
39Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 02:43
Just saw your reason for keep Nine Rally. Honestly, I wouldn't do it. And my "money" is where my mouth is. I dumped a similar horse -- Pay Sal -- several weeks ago. The new guy BRED OVER him!! Unbelievable. He was Red Ransom x (???) something decent, IIRC. Interestingly, he survived two races in 2500 and 7500 claimers. That's not likely to happen for you.

The question then becomes -- is it worth it? To get 49er as a DS is possible, but you're going to have to shell 350 points, easy. Riverman as DDS is no problem. In theory, you could wait until he hits 140, but since you have to breed early in the week because of 49er, let's say he costs 200. That means the horse is worth 350 + 200/2 = 450 breed points.

Now, to breed him will cost 125 (sex change). This is a net of 325. You could "push the breeding envelope" and pay another 250 (if you have the points). That would sill net you 75. Honestly, however, the fact that this horse doesn't have a great racing history would make me question the wisdom of that. I'd rather get a 49erxRiverman for scratch and pay an additional 75.

So, this leaves us with the 325 BPs. As it stands now, this horse is almost worthless to you for another 12 months. The other option is to replace him. Let's say you get lucky, and get a great low-tag starter allowance horse (best case scenario). That means you probably have 25-30 high quality races, probably getting 7 points per race. . . 150 points, plus maybe $100K cash.

Thus, holding the horse seems like a good idea from that perspective.

Instead of a great starter-allowance horse, you could hope for a great claimer. By that I mean a horse that can pile up several top 3's in a row. You'd easily get 325 points that way, but these guys may be harder to find than top starter horses, even.

So far, it looks good for keeping him. Except for one issue -- what is the cost/chance of acquiring another well-bred horse later??? In other words, other people are dumping their 4yo's, too. They do appear periodically. Chocolate Dump was one such case for me (and boy, that hurt watching him lose week after week!).

If you think you could find such a horse, then you should dump this guy now. If you don't, then you should keep him.

Personally, I'd look for another horse later. I'd also look for a horse with a better record. The only reason I kept Chocolate Dump around to be bred was that he'd gone 95+ multiple times, and was surface versatile. And then he broke 100 for me. So I figured that he's an above average 49er progeny, which means he helps the odds of his kid -- Enigmatic.

In your case, I think the 49er/Riverman combo you have is dead-on average. He MIGHT develop, but I wouldn't count on it. And if he doesn't, then nothing will be gained by using this horse in breeding other than to save points. And I think a horse that could save you points AND maybe increase the odds of its kids being better may be out there.

But, claimers are getting harder. If you don't want to bank on this latter option, then you should indeed keep the horse, since there's virtually no way you can earn enough BP's in the meantime from that stable stall to be worth more than keeping this guy there.

Long story for a short summary, eh?

(PS, after revisiting Chocolate Dump's record, dang, he needs more endurance. I really needed Giant's Causeway here instead of Polish Numbers. Yipes. I'll hope for the best.)
40cab
      Donor
      ID: 230261920
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 04:38
Yankee Alphabet was indeed outclassed in that equinics race...He was only in there to make up the numbers though, so nothing was expected from him...It was a good days racing for me...Particulary with the Cab stable...By my calculations, it puts me within 3-4 pts of the leader in the NWRC quarterly competition(with 2 weeks to go)...I can't see any decent races for my runners in the next 2 weeks however,which is a bit concerning...Actually,All the horses in this stable have had a pretty tough row to hoe in these past 3 months(basically running them every 2 weeks and sometimes back to back) so a decent break is in order after this competion is over...

Another pleasing aspect was the claimers that finished itm...Rules in the burn collected the bonus this week and rapid clam,Lord serpentine and Loving that popper are all putting it on the line next time out...Some of these guys were very close to becoming dogfood but they live a bit longer now..I am gonna dump one or two of my other failures though...

I am beginning to think the auction is a better option than going for claimers...It continually amazes me that horses are thrown into the auction with just a very few starts under their belts...And what is even more amazing,the number of new horses that are bred over, more or less straight away by new trainers(i haven't actually looked to see if they may have been any good,but they obviously didn't get much of a chance to prove themselves)

Sure,the majority of auction horses are way overpriced but it is the only thing you can use simbucks for anyhow...The way i figure it, if you shell out 75k,80k or whatever and you can get a win out of that horse then the money is well spent...You are, more or less, paying simbucks for bp...There were a number of horses in last weeks auction that were maidens and i'm sure a win was achievable with them...I didn't purchase any because my only stable with stall space wasn't overly well-off(it is now tho!)...There are a couple of things to remember tho..1)Anything over 100k is vet listed(14 days?)2)They can't be chucked back in the auction for a certain amoumt of time(if cost more than 100k)...3)The auction price is pretty much the same as a claiming tag...In other words, you have a bp penalty if you run them in a claim race for less than 70%? of what you paid for them....

Ideally,Getting them for anything under 20-25k is the way to go(and definately no more than 100k,unless it's a superstud i suppose)...At least you do have the option of putting them in claim races then...
One disadvantage...Quite often they aren't tried in claimers before they are put in the auction so you miss out on the starter allowance races...

I assume you guys do this as well, but one thing i do as soon as stables have been updated, is to target specific races 2 or 3 weeks in advance for my horses' next race..With the Cab stable especially, i have learnt that i have to do this...The limited amount of tracks(for competition purposes)and the conditions running out on some horse have made it imperative that i plan ahead....Also, with the likes of Mooralay variety,Rules etc planning ahead is becoming necessay...Sometimes it does mean running them at RTG rather than sharp but i would rather have them in races that they have a decent chance in, than waiting till they are sharp and run them over their heads...

Oh yeah,one other thing...I must remember to check the conditions before i enter my horses!Twice now i have entered Bee stacking in a race(Without a backup race,no less!!)and twice the entry has been rejected because the race was a 4yo only race....Geeez, i hate that!...
41Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 13:54
Cab -- actually I don't check 2-3 weeks ahead. Maybe I should. It's an option.

Honestly, I've got this thing down so I only spend about an hour a week at it (not counting the boards). I have a program that goes through all the races and only shows the races my horses fit the conditions for (MadTrainer 2000). It takes me about 30 minutes to find 2 races for 15 horses (including thinking about what's best, etc.). Entering jockeys takes about 10 minutes, max. I run a claiming program in the background after Wednesday, and take about 20 minutes looking through all the claimers and their top speeds.

To this hour, it looks like I'm going to have to add the auction. I run the MadTrainer 2000 for that, and then just put bids in on horses Friday night. Total waste of 30 minutes. Going to do that same thing Wed/Thur/Fri.

I'm not a big fan of actually paying for horses at auction. Yes, it's the only thing to use sim bucks for. I'm personally waiting until I get around 12 million per stable. And then I'll maybe browse for the best stakes horses in the auction (elite breeding, too). Until then, I'm not going to bother spending more than 10K on any single horse, I don't think.
42Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 14:03
BTW, more example of the garbage in the sim that I think is mucking things up:

List of prospective 10K or under starters in 1306 (proposed -- not final).

1306 MD Str -2500-(T) 4yo 6 FRL Dirt Open $11,200 $2,620 (6)
1306 AZ Str -10000 5yo+ 7.5 FRL Dirt Open $11,200 $270 (0)
1306 WY Str -2500-(T) 4yo 6 FRL Dirt Open $9,500 $960 (2)
1306 NH Str -7500-(T) 4yo 7 FRL Dirt Open $11,200 $3,040 (7)
1306 NW Str -2000 4yo+ 7 FRL Dirt Open $11,200 $6,930 (13)
1306 BC Str -4000 4yo 7.5 FRL Dirt Open $13,000 $710 (2)
1306 DC Str -2000 3yo+ 6 FRL Turf Open $7,200 $2,620 (6)

3 track restricted, 4yo only races. Good grief. Not a single race out there, turf or dirt, for an ordinary 5K 5yo. Yes, there's the silly 5yo+ race, which I will be running in, I'm sure. But nothing else.

The next week, there isn't a single sprint starter allowance between 5K and 10K. 1320 looks normal. But, then again, that's three weeks away, and the scheduling for that week is still up in the air.
43StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Sun, Feb 10, 2002, 14:11
Madman - I think you missed MO. 4 track restricted starter allowance races there alone for week 1306! I haven't found a 5yo male race there for over a month that I could get into.
44Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Mon, Feb 11, 2002, 00:45
Here's what ended up being carded:

Here's the list for 3 yo:
1306.1706 VA Str -4000 3yo 6.5 FRL Turf Open $5,500 $2,580 (6) 0 %
1306.2614 WY Str -2500-(T) 3yo 4.5 FRL Dirt Open $9,500 $960 (2) 0 %
1306.3614 E4 Str -5000-(T) 3yo 6.5 FRL Dirt Open $7,200 $6,980 (13) 0 %
1306.5312 A1 Str -2000-(T) 3yo 6.5 FRL Turf Open $23,100 $7,450 (13) 0 %
1306.6015 HK Str -4000-(T) 3yo 6.5 FRL Dirt Open $9,500 $8,140 (13) 5 %
1306.7703 DC Str -2000 3yo+ 6 FRL Turf Open $7,200 $2,620 (6) 0 %

And 4yo+
1306.0814 MD Str -2500-(T) 4yo 6 FRL Dirt Open $11,200 $2,620 (6) 0 %
1306.1215 PA Str The JMB Special-2500 4yo+ 6 FRL Dirt Open $50,000 $2,790 (7) 0 %
1306.1514 AZ Str -10000 5yo+ 7.5 FRL Dirt Open $11,200 $270 (0) 0 %
1306.2612 WY Str -2500-(T) 4yo 6 FRL Dirt Open $9,500 $960 (2) 0 %
1306.3815 NH Str -7500-(T) 4yo 7 FRL Dirt Open $11,200 $3,040 (7) 0 %
1306.6612 NW Str -2000 4yo+ 7 FRL Dirt Open $11,200 $6,930 (13) 0 %
1306.6908 BC Str -4000 4yo 7.5 FRL Dirt Open $13,000 $710 (2) 0 %
1306.7703 DC Str -2000 3yo+ 6 FRL Turf Open $7,200 $2,620 (6) 0 %

And for Fillies:
1306.2414 MO Str -2500-(T) 5yo+ 6 FRL Dirt F $5,500 $1,470 (4) 0 %
1306.3613 E4 Str -2000-(T) 4yo 6.5 FRL Turf F $7,200 $6,980 (13) 0 %
1306.4614 NF Str -7500-(T) 5yo+ 7.5 FRL Turf F $17,600 $2,390 (6) 0 %

1306.3313 E1 Str -2000 3yo 6.5 FRL Turf F $23,100 $6,090 (13) 0 %
1306.5602 MY Str-10000 3yo 6 FRL Dirt F $3,900 $8,260 (13) 0 %

Good grief. I think those speak for themselves. Almost total garbage.

Stl -- I find 3 track only races in Missouri this week -- one of which is on the list above (filly starter allowance restricted).

You know, it's to the point in low-tag starters where I think you MUST plan two races in advace, if possible. Look for an applicable starter race in 3 weeks, and run at that track this week. Pathetic.
45StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Mon, Feb 11, 2002, 01:22
Yeah one of them seems to have lost its T rating when it got carded. Don't worry though, next week MO has 6 (T) races bid and 4 (H) races bid.
46cab
      Donor
      ID: 230261920
      Mon, Feb 11, 2002, 01:44
Are they track residents bidding for those races STL?...I was reading a message board at another residency a few weeks ago and there were 2 trainers buying races to try and win a residency competition...Basically ruled everyone else out of the races with the restrictions they set...Just curious if the same thing is happening at Missouri..
47StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Mon, Feb 11, 2002, 02:56
Basically same thing. There is a resident competition going on, but I don't think that is it really. Nothing to great prize wise. The person claims it is within the rules and if you don't like it to out bid them. I'm trying to move some horses there now, and if they start losing all the time or at least find it harder to win, they might have a change of heart. If nothing else I might just start outbidding them and card some races where they are excluded. Seems very common now throughout the SIM as Madman pointed out, so it is not just MO, that is just where it affects me most, since I am trying to run most of my races there. Hasn't worked so far.
48Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Mon, Feb 11, 2002, 22:50
Hey guys! I emailed zgreat about this situation (we had talked about this stuff before). He forwarded the message to Mike, and it looks like changes might be coming.

What about a 100 credit minimum for (t), (h), or (c) restricted races? And a 50 credit minimum for CPU value?
49Toral
      Sustainer
      ID: 2111201313
      Mon, Feb 11, 2002, 23:32
Madman 48That sounds like a positive step. A disincentive against buying the races that are causing the problem, plus insuring that where they are bought they contribute towards their justification, i.e., funding the sim.

Toral
50StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 10372222
      Tue, Feb 12, 2002, 01:33
I think that would be a very positive step, IMO. Thanks Madman. Let's hope Mike acts on it.
51StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 2504849
      Tue, Feb 12, 2002, 11:04
I just realized that someone claimed a horse from me last week for $10K. LOL, can tell I really miss him! Longfoot was his name. I wondered why anybody would want him - seems they eliminated him for breeding. Of course that was my plan too, but I'll take the open stall. Can always get a $1 auction horse to replace him.

If anyone has a 5yo+ filly with a 2.5k tag that last raced in MO, that looks like a pretty easy race. 2 horses entered so far. What's wrong with that picture?

And BTW, Cab, the person buying those races just moved into 1st place in the resident series. Have some "upset" residents over there.
52cab
      Donor
      ID: 230261920
      Tue, Feb 12, 2002, 20:04
Sounds like a good idea to me too,Madman...

At least they aren't buying the races outright like they were at DElPenn,STl...you still do have the option of outbidding them....It must've cost those 2 guys at DelPenn 10-20 bucks a week for the last few weeks!...Thankfully it isn't happenning too much at NWRC..Nothing noticable anyway...There are races being bid for,but the restrictions aren't too bad,overall...Actually, the track restricted races that are carded suit me quite well....With the new quarterly comp. starting in a couple of weeks,i am hoping that the rules will be revisited and any races with ,say,less than 6 runners, will not have points counted...

53Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Wed, Feb 13, 2002, 03:03
Yeah, hopefully this will help take care of the problem. At the very least, it will result in more money flowing into the sim if it doesn't fix anything . . .

I'm entering Private Count in the Ohio Stakes race. She's raced there two times in a row, so I'll get one or two breed points for free by racing there a third time. All the allowance races were chock-full; this stakes race only had 3 other horses in it at the time.

Of course, immediately after I did that, a 5th ringer showed up in that race. Sigh. That owner scratched his/her horse's previous entry 4 seconds after I entered my horse, and entered that horse in the Ohio race within 5 minutes. Aargh.

Going to leave her in there, however. See what she can do. She's shown a lot of heart in smaller races, and this would be a great chance for her to go 9f fast on a track she likes.
54StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 2504849
      Wed, Feb 13, 2002, 10:03
I made a donation to the game so I can possibly outbid the MO resident for the T races.

Politely mentioned my dis satisfaction with the # of T races suggesting that he either 1) limit them, 2) increase their cost, 3) make them be "buy only" with no bidding allowed.

His response was that he recently raised the cost to a 100 credit minimum and if that didn't help further action would be forthcoming.

So Madman, it looks like your email did the trick and the 100 credit min. is now in effect. Let's hope this helps.
55Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Wed, Feb 13, 2002, 13:42
Zgreat really deserves the credit, since he's the one who contacted Mike directly. I just emailed zgreat. I haven't seen anything about the 100 credit minimum being in effect . . . maybe I should go to the buy races screen to check it out?

FYI -- I'm trying to enter Enigmatic in races this week. The number of 2yo's out there is truly staggering. I figure that there's a good chance she won't draw into either of her races. So, might as well go for it. Odds are long against getting place next week, too.

I don't think I'm going to be doing too much breeding of 2 year olds. I think I may do a few discount 3 yo homebreds if I can win anything in the auction. I'd like to breed away Alyrun Wing, and maybe either Agriculture Bomber or Rakida's Plug. Unfortunately, that stable (Madman3) can't seem to get BP's in races (horses coming up lame) or claim horses to fill out the stall spots, so it's hard to build up points. But the # of 2 year olds is absurd at the moment. The contrarian in me suggests that it is better to bide my time . . . assuming I can find other races to enter!
56StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 2504849
      Wed, Feb 13, 2002, 14:03
Over the last 2 weeks I bred 4 or 5 2 yo's. I agree that the chances of drawing in aren't looking real good. The idea of 2yo's was very attractive for me. For one, I get to choose the breeding and am therefore at least partially responsible for their success or failure. Secondly, they are maidens to start which greatly reduces the amount of time trying to find that ideal race. Also, being 2yo's I only have to find them races once every 7 weeks or so. So rather than have open stalls or stalls taken with marginal claim materail, (that ultimately I race anyway since they are there) I decided to breed over the marginal horses. I am also considering only setting the "train for" option on my better horses and let the other ones get sharp whenever.

All of this of course is aimed at reducing my time needed to manage too many stables. Wish there was a way to consolidate them using the best horses.
57StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 2504849
      Wed, Feb 13, 2002, 14:36
I just went and verified it. T, C, and H races now all cost a minimum of 100 credits.
58Madman
      ID: 21020124
      Thu, Feb 14, 2002, 00:33
Geez I am an idiot. Forgot to enter all the horses from Madman3 stables. Aaargh.
59StLCards
      Sustainer
      ID: 2504849
      Thu, Feb 14, 2002, 10:40
I entered a bunch but forgot to select jockeys for any of them. Got a lot of 2nd choices anyway.
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