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Subject: Simracing...Wk 1327
Posted by: cab
- Donor [141552719] Thu, Mar 07, 2002, 06:50
cab: cab,cab31,pepe31,bacup,cab35
Madman: Madman999, madman3, madman4, rotciv
StLCards: stlcards, stlcards1, stlcards2, stlcards3, devil01
Toral: toral, larot, toral2, toral6
Chief Coy heads my troops this week in a stakes race at CA...Surprised by the odds(5/1)...I thought he would be longer than that...An even field overall, although I'm not really sure how he will go...
The Cab stable hits the fray again with Pepi Undercut(4402) and Loving that popper(3005) going around...I have a distinct feeling i will lose Loving that popper...Matai Bay(4311) is my last real hope for my homebreds...Matai bay and Blame the rum are the only two i will persevere with probably...All the rest are longish shots that vary from 9/2 to 15/1...I don't hold out too much hope for them...
I have forgotten how hard breeding is !..lol...I have been looking at different sires over the week...Mining x Diesis(gb)x Nijinsky is one combo i am looking at...It would cost a bomb to breed at the moment but by the end of the week maybe it will be cheap enough to consider it(assuming all are still available then)...
The other thing i thought about was using either Storm god or Chief's reward(two cheapie sires i used last year with reasonable results but not outstanding) as sires and use class sires at DS and DDS(Nijinsky,Nureyev,Mr P etc etc)...Still pondering about that...
Good luck to all this week... |
| 1 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 00:54
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I'm going to go into some detail about races this week. Going to be a very interesting one for me.
STAKES RACES
Race 7413 -- Secret Society -- 7/2 odds. 6 horse field, wide-open. Honestly, if SS can regain his old form, he could win this sucker. If not, well, he's going to make me look silly. I really wanted to drop him to Allowance races this week, but there wasn't anything attractive. This field looks about right, and I'm betting he'll bounce back and win. Last week, 10f was probably just too far for him. If he doesn't bounce back, then I'm going to run him next time with 3 weeks rest.
2413 Sal at the Bell 7/2 odds -- best odds ever for an older horse in a Stakes race for me. Basically, Missouri has been running 8-9f 4yo+ Stakes races every other week for the past 6 weeks. SAB has finished #2 in the last 2 stakes races there in Missouri. I figure to stick with what works! Get the same track BP bonus, no travel costs, Stake points for a 1 or 2 finish, etc. Field looks tough, but the odds makers are giving SAB some respect for last 2 runs. My guess is that he's going to run into trouble. I feel like I'm pushing my luck. But I'm obviously hoping for the best. If he can crank 3 top 3 finishes in Stakes races in 5 weeks, man, I'll be a believer. He also needs to be given a little break. I was going to run him with 3 weeks rest, except for the fact that there was no decent race in the same track next week. Also, he's under Erickson for the second time in a row. Good sign there.
Tsultress I got encouraged by her 90+ at 16f, and she's in 5508 this week. Honestly, the field is a bit over her head, but not too far. 8/1 odds reflect that. We'll see what the increase in competitive level does -- will she respond???
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NEWBIES (non Madman1):
Agrippina makes her anticipated debut. I'm hoping for big things from this 411 point 3yo. She's racing against the pride newbie of Pedroza stables, a noted claim bandit. GRUDGE MATCH! :) Race is 2004, and she goes off at 9/5 odds. Only downside is that this is a dirt sprint, and she's bred for 8f on turf. But I've had so much bad luck with expensive homebreds, this one's gotta be good, yes????
Meteor Shower 25 point homebred, debuting in a 2K Maiden Claimer. Mike screwed the point calculation for newbies again this week, so I'll probably lose this horse. Oh well. 7/2 odds. WTF??
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STARTERS AND OTHERS OF NOTE:
Skin Jumping goes off at 2/1. Distance is longer than his preferred 5f, but he has a chance to win.
King North goes off at Even odds in a 2K restricted turf sprint. The field is ABSURDLY GOOD, however, so I think he's over-carded. The good news is that I think he could be EXTREMELY fast over that distance and surface, so I wouldn't bet against him. We'll see.
Light Jupiter got carded in a 7.5K starter. Some tough competition, but he should be top 3.
Tow's Terms is at 9/5 odds in Delaware. Again, tough competition. What is going on with starter races these days? Should be top 3, but maybe not top 1. Unbelievable!
Paul's Beats and Lightning Counting are going for bonus points for me. Gotta get those BPs!
Carolina Era and DDay were virtually unplaceable this week. Carolina Era also didn't draw into the race I wanted, so he's up against Tow's Terms. Great. DDay is into high tag claimers hoping to earn points.
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OTHERS
Straight Time (sigh. What should I do with her???), Just Another T (auction pickup I wasted too much time recovering from injury), Joe's Machine (3/1 in a very tough high-tag starter allowance race), one-time favorite Royal With Silver, Snow Storm trying to avoid claimers and Val's Desert trying to prove he can be an awesome sprinter are the also-rans for me this week. Actually, I'll probably get some places from those horses. Hopefully RWS will make a comeback. And Val's Desert is also 100+ capable. Can you believe I'm talking about two proven 100+ horses as also-rans for my barns? The sim competition level is getting almost absurd, IMO. 102 and 104 is nothing unless you've got extremely tight restricted races you can run in.
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Madman1
I went ahead and signed up all 4 runners this week. Shockingly, the odds makers like Hidden Diamond and Trillium Cigar (6/1 and 8/1) a bit! WHY? Velvet Group goes off at the expected 53/1. Hahaha. Cecil's Burg is about 16/1. It will be kind of fun to watch this glue. As I said before, if any of these horses can place, it will be a miracle.
Downloading claimers, and I'm planning on putting in 5 bids for the best 5 horses with this stable. We'll see if a newbie barn has any better chance at the lottery picks.
23 races this week. Holy cow. A number of horses are recovering from injury, as well, so my barns are really cranking up the volume, so to speak.
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| 2 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 01:19
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Cab, is your Mining breed to be a 2-year-old? I was considering Mining earlier and have been following him a bit and IIRC he's usually gone for 2s by Saturday morning. Still unused as of right now
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Larot Stables hit the "Drop Dead" mark in BPs last week. That's 1250, the amount where you can just plunk your BPs on the table and pick any combo you want and if the computer doesn't like it it can DD. Of course that's hard to do timing-wise under the new system and I wouldn't do it anyway. I've weighed Madman's advice to breed soon with the free BPs coming up but decided I'm not going to force a stall opening; if necessary I can wait till the effect of the free BP infusion washes out.
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Something I've been waiting for for months has happened. Ministry of Chaos, whom I lost in her first MC out last year, has been entered in a $13.5 claimer so I can get her back. I designed her to be a real stayer, but with the advantage of Madman's SSS it appears her sires do not produce stayers, or anything worth much, in the sim at all. I've been salivating over the chances of getting her back, but whether I put in a claim now will depend on whether my heart or head is in ruling position the next few days.
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I managed to get Twarpy to give me the password for his stable and enter a horse just before the deadline to keep it alive. I'm just nursing it for now, but it has better quality horses than are available in the pool now so my idea is to give it to some new gurupie down the line. If you see any really great cheap claim pickups you don't have priority at but would be good for a 20- race stable let me know.
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Lots of interesting situations this week.
Aces Of Pete hits the bottom of the barrel in a $2K MC in Missouri 4810 and is the even-odds favourite there. Do horses like this get picked up?
City O'Gold is still being cushioned/protected by me, entered in Michigan 2110 a $100K claimer going off at 8/1.
Public Strawberry is a 3/1 shot in North Dakota 7508, a MC $2.5er.
The 3-year-old Nail Endangering is 9/2 in her bid for a first allowance win in North Florida 4611.
The disappointing Hank's Rattles tries a route going off at 5/1 at a mile in Delaware 2209. Yes, he tires at 6f, but IRL horses like him can sometimes do better in routes if they can get a clear lead more easily and a route had to be tried sometime with this one.
Bead Pick is in danger of being lost. The main entry was for a *320 allowance but he didn't get in; I'm not letting my 7-year-olds sit around so the 2nd choice was a $25K claimer where he is the 7/2 favorite, in E1 3306.
Chief Northern is 2/1 in a $10K starter at 10 furlongs in 8104 Z2 and the question is whether he can go that distance.
My third and last homebreed last year, Alsterimist, alas hits the claiming ranks and is a 4/1 favorite in a C$15N2L in Wisconsin 4212. As a favorite, I assume I lose her but her future is clearly in claimers so it was time to pull the trigger.
3-year-old cheapie breed of last week Code Keeper came up Sharp! and is 5/1 in a MC in PA 1202. No I haven't become a Claim Bandit.
Kangaroo Minstrel tries allowance turf sprinting again in A2 5407 at 5/1.
17 horses running and an interesting week. 2-year-old Telephoned Appeal did not draw in, a common fate it seems. I'm wondering whether I should pull back and train him for a week in April and see if he shows up sharp then
Good luck to all.
Toral
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| 3 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 11:52
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Hero Grub In the last 3 has run 100, 102, 105 for a 3d, 2nd, 1st respectively. All starter allowances. Real range seems to be between 6-8f on dirt. I decided to stretch her out a bit and entered a 5K starter in WY at 9f. In an owner restricted stakes race she ran a 93SP over 9.5f in week 1264.I feel she will respond well and is a 1/2 favorite. It would take a great day by any other entry for Hero Grub to not win this one.
Neatly Impregnate Had a 2 horse trailer, so I shipped Neatly Impregnate to WY as well. Entered in a $5K maiden claimer 6.5f turf sprint. 4/1 odds makes her the second favorite in this weak field.
Dusty Colony Still seeking to break his maiden he returns home to MO as the 5/2 favorite over a mile on dirt. Drew a jock that is totally unkown to me, otherwise should run away with this one. Wanted to stretch out to 10f as Madman once suggested, but last race was only 7f and that seemed to big of a jump. Prefer to race in MO anyway and this should be a good race for him. Once he breaks his maiden he unfortunately will probably have to go to claimers to win again.
Unknown Camcorder 3yo I picked up in claimers awhile ago and had popped an 80SP as a 2yo gets a 6f dirt race (NW2L) in SD. The 12/1 odds seems to be an accurate assessment. Probably is just a so so horse that will wind up back in claimers sooner rather than later, but I plan to try a few different things before totally giving up on him.
My Spring Place My latest 3yo homebred that was modeled after a real life horse (Fonz's) came into the barn a she, so we performed a sex change operation. This she-male came into the barn sharp and makes her, er, his debut in MO running a 5.5f dirt sprint. 14/1 odds, but will be under the reins of the top jock F. Mac who is ITM over 50% of the time this year.
Don't have a lot running as I've moved to younger horses, but should have some success this week.
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| 4 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 14:12
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Based upon her start%'s (assuming you haven't been playing with them too much), I think Hero Grub can compete just fine in 9f races. May not be her best, but may be, afterall. Regardless, she has never had what I call a "proven failure" in distance. Thus, you shouldn't rule anything out.
Personally, I would keep her in 5K restricted races, 9f or under through May. After her tag runs out, then experiment at the longer distances. If she fails, then you have a few bad speed ratings recently, meaning you get better odds in races and/or more likely to sneak her through a claimer or two.
BTW, this looks like a great week to breed 2 year olds. Lots of high quality sires still available, including all 3 of Machiavellian! And the quality of DS and DDS is truly outstanding. I'd recommend you use up some of those 1200 BPs, Toral. I really can't believe the quality out there. Annual Ballot isn't worth a ton, and wouldn't be that bad to breed over.
Of course, you may be better off in the longer run waiting as long as possible to breed 2 year olds. No real point to them this early, perhaps. Even though I have three of them. Sigh. . . one of those was a mistake -- Perfect Storm Too. Although if you want to reduce your stable burden like StL, they serve that purpose well. You could still breed a studly 3 year old.
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| 5 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 20:26
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Point well taken, Madman. I also notice Machiavellian's price has been going up (comparing prices at the same time of the week). I hadn't really considered what the effct of the free BPs will be on proces of sires....Anyway, I'm on Machiavellian watch. As soon as 2-year-olds go down to 1, I strike. (Unless someone else is doing the same thing). But not with larot -- with toral, where Lox is ready to bred over, particularly with no auction next week.
Toral
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| 6 | cab
Donor
ID: 141552719
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 21:03
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I'm in no real hurry either Toral...I was thinking 2yo's will be the way to go in the next few months...Seeing all the moans and groans (on the sim mb)has made me think that i will not rush into breeding 2yo's too much...I see that Mining is still availabe...Waiting as long as possible makes a huge difference in the bp price...If he is still available sunday i will go for it...If not,i'll wait till another time..You grab him if you want him Toral...
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| 7 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 21:14
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Thanks, cab, but I wasn't going after Mining this week (barring his availability Saturday after a highly unlikely pickup of breed-over material in a claimer after a loss of a horse by larot sorry I'm rambling here). I was just curious, 2 or 3. I think Mining is a good choice for a 2, tho, as a precocious sprinter type.
I see the SRF writer in CA made no picks I could see...good luck to Chief Coy.
Toral
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| 8 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 22:01
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Missouri's tipster picks Madman's Sal At The Bell to place..."# 3 Sal At The Bell - speedster should take command early; ablilty to last is question."
Toral
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| 9 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, Mar 08, 2002, 23:42
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Good tip, Toral. Did you see who rode Wicked Bat LTO? VP Davis -- me!!! I think I'm a pretty darned good jockey.
Also, it's kind of interesting to note that the horse they are picking to win is a horse that Sal At the Bell dusted in the Light Idea Handicap a month ago. That horse is running once a month, it appears. Strange.
Furthermore, I'd take Erickson as a jockey over the competition. Unlike the tipster, I think the biggest challenge may come from the outside -- Starry Night at 8/1. The good news is that he's also a front runner, and SAB will likely beat him out of the gate. However, that may also push SAB too far, and thus the question about SAB's staying power is legit.
I dunno. These stakes races are hard to predict. This is the first time SAB is getting any respect at the Stakes level, so a positive entry in a tipsheet makes me wonder . . .
I've also got a theory that when a well-bred speed horse like SAB enters the race, SP figures for the competition tends to be slower. SAB -- if he's running reasonably well -- jumps the field and the rest of the horses give up.
That Missouri race this week is going to be very, very interesting. It drives me crazy thinking that the race has already been run on Mike's computer, but he just waits until tomorrow to post them. !!
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BTW, did you guys notice the increase in track-repeat running BPs? 5 points for top 3 finish on the same track. That means planning for track restricted races is even more beneficial.
Also, don't forget the highly raced horse bonus for repeat top 3 finishes within $310. A horse with 50 races gets a straight-up 10 point bonus for finishing top 3 two claim races in a row. Add to that the same track bonus, and the rollover-BP bonus, and we're still talking some serious BPs up for grab in claimers -- IF you plan two races ahead for your horses. From here on out, I'm going to look at available claim races 3 weeks in advance to try to maximize this bonus.
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| 10 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 00:30
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Hmm. Hannibal picks a 24/1 shot over Madman's Skin Jumping in Maine. Distance seen as questionable as per above.
Toral (waiting for someone to buy a Machiavellian so I can follow)
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| 11 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 01:17
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Toral -- yeah, whatever! That pick makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. The power of the SSS comes through in cases like this one.
Roll Dealing has never run faster than 75.4 at 7f or greater. If the distance is going to be a question for any horse (which I don't think it is) it would be a question for this one.
Furthermore, the idea that he's gotten better since turning 4 is total crap. He logged a 94.8 back in 1159 at 6.5f.
Regardless, Roll Dealing is going to be almost no factor whatsoever in this race.
The run will be between Skin Jumping and gaz's absolutely PATHETIC stable transfer Event Bro. Event Bro has the clear upper hand, IMO. He's only been raced 5 times (the first 7 don't count since Gaz was trying to tank the horse). In those 5 races, he's gone 95.8 EVERY RACE from 6 to 6.5f. That's faster than Roll Dealing has EVER GONE, BTW, and Event Bro has done it every time!!!!
Furthermore, 3 of those 5 races were wins, meaning that we don't know how fast he could have gone in those runs! Roll Dealing did win in 88 recently, but it was a neck and neck race -- he wasn't jogging home.
Thus, I think unless the jockey tanks the horse, or unless he gets injured again like he probably did in 1278 (note: even when he got hurt, Event Bro ran 92.3!!!!!), Event Bro is the odds-on fav.
Bastard stable transfer garbage. 100% outright cheating.
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| 12 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 01:43
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So how do you really feel about it Madman? LOL!
I think that Sal at the Bell has a good shot at another 2nd in MO if the race goes well. I think you'll be hard pressed to beat Dynadrill Clone from the #1 post. Good luck.
Good thing the SIM doesn't mimic real life weather. We're having a pretty bad storm blowing in. Lots of wind, hopefully no tornadoes. Looked out my window and saw a transformer short out a few streets over (I guess that's what all the sparks were).
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| 13 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 02:21
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Any top 3 from SAB would be welcomed by me :) Going to be an exciting race. Hopefully he doesn't get struck by lightning tomorrow during the race! :)
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| 14 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 02:31
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I've been scouring over the sires and had a few horses I want to breed, but really just can't seem to fit them in. Either not enough BP's or no room in the stables. Think I'll just sit tight.
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| 15 | cab
Donor
ID: 141552719
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 03:04
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Anyone seen the hilight stable?...Just curious as to what he/she is up to...Is he/she a rookie cb'er who forgot to get all 3yo's?...Or just someone who felt like doing a bunch of breeding?...9 2yo cheapies seem to be a bit excessive to me!
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| 16 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 03:18
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That certainly is unusual. 97 races, but only 3 of them from the current horses. They seem to enjoy breeding for whatever reason that's for sure. There is a lot of MSW races in there from the past. Like you said, maybe just a bit mixed up on how the CB thing is supposed to work.
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| 17 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 08:38
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LOL. Poor hilight. Looks like he went to CB school, unfortunately missed one class on "What To Breed".
Geez, the problems with entering 2-year-olds must have really discouraged people from breeding this week. Machiavelli and Mining still sitting there. There's only 5 points to be saved by waiting on Mach now. Maybe I should stop playing Chicken....
Toral
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| 18 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 10:35
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The deed is done.
Reification. Machiavellian x Northern Dancer x Hail To Reason.
Toral
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| 19 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 11:42
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That looks great Toral. About 600BP's? Hope he/she becomes a SIM champ. Eventually one of us is bound to breed a G1 stakes winner if even by accident.
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| 20 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 13:12
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Reification? You didn't happen to know that I'm trying to write a short essay on what I call the "Reification fallacy", eh? That single word describes what's wrong with most social science work, IMO . . . hahaha. Congrats. Hopefully you'll have more luck than my Agrippina, who stunk today. Hoping for better luck on turf with her.
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Did I call Maine or what? #1 Event Bro, #2 Skin Jumping. Yeeouch!
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That Missouri Race was awesome. StLCards and the Missouri Tipsters had it right -- Dynadrill Clone took my guy out. 101.6 speed is OK.
Overall, I had three horses go 100+ . . . SAB, Light Jupiter, 102.8 to finish 2nd, Val's Desert 103.3 on yeilding turf to win by a NOSE 1327.5702, very exciting race.
Win's by Val's Desert, Meteor Shower (homebred debut in MC), Tow's Terms (as expected), and Paul's Beats gives me 100 combined stable wins! Wu-hoo! It took me 589 races to get there. Not the greatest %, but not awful.
Although the wins are slowing down somewhat as the competition has been heating up.
Other Stakes Recaps:
-- Tsultress finished a hearty 3rd with a 92.0 speed in her stakes run. I should be able to find weaker fields, so she could be very valuable there. Perhaps my best claim pickup.
-- Secret Society -- he fired, but he's lost it. 82.0 speed. I've got to get him down to some restricted allowance company, and fast. Maybe even claimers. The run was fun while it lasted. BTW, I think this is something you can expect from bargain breeds -- best case scenario is brilliance while young. But they just won't develop like other horses.
Interestingly, fellow bargain breed Snow Storm snuck in for a 3rd place in his restricted allowance run. Neither one of these horses are really worth the barn space, but it's hard to get the courage to get rid of them.
All of Madman1's horses stunk REALLY BAD. Going to stick to the claimer strategy here.
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| 21 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 13:21
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Dusty Colony did break his maiden this week winning easily by 3 1/2 lengths. Ran an 82SP so still not much future for him. Will try stretching him out some more.
Hero Grub Ran a 101SP over 9f, but couldn't hold on and took second, running 2 3/4 lengths behind, in what turned into a two horse race.
Neatly Impregnate looked less than impressive in this weak field of claimers. A big pack coming to the wire, but she faded to 6th, 3 1/2 lengths behind. If I didn't lose her this week I may breed over her depending on the penalty for having so few races.
My Spring Place was my biggest dissapointment. Maybe this new 3yo is a turf runner, but only ran a 59SP with the best jockey and being sharp, and was never in it at all. Started slow and faded. Not too good. Destined for MC down the road most likely.
Unknown Camcorder finished way back.
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| 22 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 15:19
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You deserve that win for Dusty Colony, STL! Talk about working a horse into shape! Congrats.
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| 23 | cab
Donor
ID: 57224213
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 16:55
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After what i can only call a crap night at work(the car broke down)Chief Coy made my day by winning his stakes race...By far and away the biggest paycheck earned...9/11 in the money for him now...gotta get that raceout downloaded to see what sp he ran...
Pepi Undercut also won his race easily...I should have bet on him...It was a cpu all. 1mil race...His cpu value is exactly 1 mil...right distance,right surface,at 10/1 he was a good bet...
2 wins,2 places and a show from 9 starts represented a good showing this week...
Unknown Camcorder?..That name rings a bell somehow...
Still debating wether to breed a 2yo or not...I will probably weaken!
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| 24 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 17:01
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Thanks Madman, Nice run by Sal at the Bell. Dynadrill Clone really covered some ground to catch him at the end there.
Wish the stables were updated already!
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| 25 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 17:07
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Weak week. One win, 1-3-2-4-3 in 17 starts. They're hanging close, but not scoring.
I shouldn't say this before I'm sure it went through...but this is my first week with a max (500K) betting score. All from a simple 2/6 exacta box in Maine 1237.4510, one of those two-mile events. Even botched that -- made $672,000, so will be donating money to the cash man. Grrr.
Congrats to Chief Coy and the other successful performers above.
Claim and auction comings and goings should be interesting.
Toral
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| 26 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 17:11
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Chief Coy ran a 102.9 and won $45K. Very nice Cab.
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| 27 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 10372222
Sat, Mar 09, 2002, 23:08
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I signed up for another 3yo today. Hennessy x El Gran Senor x Shirley Heights
This is probably near the end of the line for awhile. There is a 2yo competition coming up in MO so will probably breed a 2yo for that. Thought I wanted to breed using Unbridled's Song and he is available, but when I looked in the SSS he didn't look all that impressive as a Sire, which was very suprising to me.
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| 28 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 0234102
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 02:38
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My Spring Place as I reported earlier ran his first race today running a 56SP over 5.5f dirt and came in 11th. He was sharp. Interestingly enough, he came back to the stable sharp. Does this mean he doesn't like the distance and/or the surface and he dogged it? Or did the experienced jock realize he was way outclassed and eased him off? I believe this is telling me something I'm just not sure what. I don't have any plans to race this week with him.
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| 29 | cab
Donor
ID: 141552719
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 03:39
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Wow 102sp...Cool...Thanks Stl...
The condition of some horses when they come back bemuses me too...I just try something different next time out..lol...Increase distance,change surface or something...
Pepi Undercut also came back sharp, Stl...After running a 99sp over 10f...I have run him back to back before and he has come through the second race credibly(of course,He's a 4yo now)...I'm not going to run him next week,however..There are no suitable races for him...
One "theory" i have is that if they come back sharp,they want more ground...My opinion is that routers want and need more races than sprinters to maintain their stamina...To be honest though,I don't have too many sprinters so that may not be the case at all..
Rule in the burns will become Sky Mining sometime tomorrow...Mining x Diesis(gb) x Nijinsky II...Cost 412 pts for this 2yo...
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| 30 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 13:09
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cab -- that should be a real nice 2yo for you. Congrats on Chief Coy. Wow. How many Stakes winners you have in your barns now???
Regarding your theory that horses that come back sharp want more ground . . . I think that how the horse comes back is largely luck. However, a horse doesn't always "spend" itself in a race, either. A horse that jogs home will be much more likely to be Sharp or RTG. Kind of like a horse that is set at 90% . . . sometimes, the sim jockeys will do that for you. If your horse has a ton of distance ability and it runs a 5f race, it's more likely to have more gas in the tank after the race.
Whether or not that applies to Pepi Undercut, I don't know. I'd give it a go at longer distances. You haven't hit his wall yet. The only thing that makes me nervous is that I can't decipher his jockey start percentages. You been setting those? I'm especially worried about the 44% to 71% in his previous two races at BC. That may mean he was pushing it a bit in that 12f race (the good news is that it may also mean he was coasting this week). If you haven't been setting start percentages, I'm predicting his best speed will come at 9-9.5f. But over 11f, you'll start to see some deterioration, with a wall at 14-16f.
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| 31 | cab
Donor
ID: 141552719
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 18:01
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Thanks Madman...I have never set jockey instructions for Pepi...He's certainly a much better horse since his injury and the switch to turf...With the limited turf events at NWRC tracks i have to plan races carefully for him and basically go for anything over 8f...
Sky Miner is a 2yo filly...She comes in with a cpu value of 5mil...A good indication or not??...Who knows?...lol
3 stakes winners now:
Clam carnival(1)..Possibly won't see him in stakes races again though(for a while at least)
Parade shooting(2)..I'm just wondering wether they may have been flukes and got weakish fields(one most certainly was a weak field!)
Chief coy(1)..Has a long way to go before he can be considered a genuine stakes horse...Things look good at the moment
The good thing is , they all have starter tags which is a great back up to have...
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| 32 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Mar 10, 2002, 23:27
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Wow. 3 solid horses in Stakes fields. That's pretty darned good. Hopefully one day I'll join you!
BTW, the 5 million dollar CPU tag simply refers to the cost of the homebred. So far, my 5 million CPU homebreds haven't broken 70. Hopefully you'll have more luck.
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| 33 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 13:28
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How much money do you think this new donation format is bringing in each week to Mike? My feeling is this is turning into a minor windfall for him lately. And I certainly don't mind it either, I am all in favor of entrepeneurship and capitalism.
Within about 10 minutes I was able to identify 20 horses that were already gone for credit breeding prior to being available. I believe these are all or at least mostly bought with credits rather than BP's. At 1000 credits, that is $10 x 20 horses = $2,000. I know there are many more horses that are gone as well, as I just checked some off the top of my head. Add to this the races that are bought each week and you are starting to talk some pretty serious money for a hobby. Mike is obviously a very bright individual.
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| 34 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 13:56
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Well, $10 x 20 horses is $200 :) Still a nice little take, since that doesn't talk about the dam's or dam-dam-sires, correct? I've never done credit breeding.
He has to rake in about $15,000 a year to break even, probably. That means $288 a week. Which I'm pretty sure he's doing with the credit breeding thing.
I don't think race-carding brings in a lot on that end. However, he's probably pulling in $25-30 per week with races that are totally purchased.
In other words, he's probably going to turn a net profit of at least $5K.
You know, maybe this is what has been going on. I better alert zgreat to this. Kingab and he have been selling the "these new plans will lower the sim's revenues" to Mike. And I'm not sure that Mike wants the game to be a big revenue raiser for him. I mean, he'll take it :) But he's put great efforts into keeping it free, not for a bargaining perspective, but because he wants it to be that way.
If the sim is bringing in surplus revenues, this would explain why Mike isn't paying a lot of attention to argument warning him that certain changes he's doing will eat into revenues.
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| 35 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 13:59
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Here is a list of the horses I looked at. I'm sure you all could add to this as well.
Danzig, Raise A Native, Kingmambo, Storm Cat, Gone West, Nijinsky II, Nureyev, Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Danehill, Forty Niner, Unbridled, Miswaki, Theatrical, Point Given, Pulpit, A.P. Indy, Secretatiat, Seattle Slew, Lyphard.
And these horses and more are gone every week. I have bought credits and used them to breed, but no way would I spend the money some of these people must be each week. My reason for buying the credits was for a "donation" to help Mike out, and to donate some of those credits to MO stables for running contests, but now I'm not so sure Mike really needs my donations to keep this thing going. I'm probably better off giving more to Guru.
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| 36 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Mar 11, 2002, 14:06
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LOL, Madman. $200 a week. Better consult my 4th grade mathbook next time!
I don't think I'm going to use credits for breeding anymore. I am forced to use them currently to keep the MO track honest, so I will buy them for that reason and to sponsor contests with in MO. Outbid that rascal in MO last week on a bunch of races and dropped 4 starter allw and a $100K and $50K MC off the card.
Looks like the new 100 credit for T races is working as I don't see many anymore around the different tracks.
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| 37 | cab
Donor
ID: 141552719
Tue, Mar 12, 2002, 20:32
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With no auction for week 1334,i would imagine the claiming races will get hit hard this week?...Without the auction, people will have more time to concentrate on the claiming races...Not to mention the breeders wanting to pick up horses to breed with...
I think i may avoid running my horses in claiming races this week...
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| 38 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Wed, Mar 13, 2002, 00:52
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Probably wise, cab. Although I've got some horses that I really don't care if I lose them. Plus, it's not really clear that more claim bids really changes anything. If more people put in more bids for the same horses, your odds of losing a horse don't change.
Personally, I'm putting Ballroom Blitz, Miswaki Music, Zarb's Pass and maybe some others in claimers again this week. Good riddance to them if someone wants them. I don't have any empty stall spaces at the moment, and next week's auction will probably be large -- more $1 horses for the taking to fill holes my stables might get this week.
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