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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1341
Posted by: Toral
- Sustainer [2111201313] Sat, Mar 23, 2002, 11:49
cab: cab,cab31,pepe31,bacup,cab35
Madman: Madman999, madman3, madman4, rotciv
StLCards: stlcards, stlcards1, stlcards2, stlcards3, devil01
Toral: toral, larot, toral2, toral6
17 horses going this week. 2-year-old sprinter Telephoned Appeal goes offRTG at 7/1 in Vermont 3701. Larot has 4 horses going at 6/1 or better and we would like a win today.
Good luck.
Toral
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| 1 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 27230119
Sat, Mar 23, 2002, 12:56
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Her Atoms takes a place in another track restricted claimer in NM. In 5 races in NM he has 2, 1, 2, 3, 2 respectively. If he wasn't claimed that should be some huge bonus points I would think.
Dusty Colony hangs on for a show in a 8.5f NW2L All. in AR. It took this horse 11 races to break his maiden, but he has a very good record of ITM and in the top 5. I was pleasantly surprised today with the 3d.
Jumbo Shadow a claimer I picked up 2 weeks ago placed in a 7.5K dirt claimer sprint.
Rich Wine No one to blame but myself on this one. Forced her into a 9f turf race before she was ready. Off a recent injury, she looked good in a sprint and I forced the race for a MO contest. I really need to quit doing that. She finished way back, hopefully, not reinjured.
5 races and 4 ITM. I'll take it.
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| 2 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 23, 2002, 13:02
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I had a pretty good week, I think. I had a few bombs -- like Another Buster NY(ire) and Royal with Silver, but all in all, a good week.
Sal At the Bell Fell apart in his Stakes race. First time he hasn't finished top 5. Yeeouch. Not sure what was wrong. 91.3 speed.
Key West looked dominant in her Maiden win. Only a $20K purse, but I'll take it. The first of my expensive homebred trio to look like anything. Hmmm. Just got the speed rating. 71.6. Big whoop. Oh well, a win is a win. At least we know she can handle that distance and surface. It was a very easy win, so I can hope for more.
King North finished a disappointing 3rd. But that's good enough for the 5 point same-track bonus :)
Light Jupiter ran same-track in an allowance run, and finished 2nd. Perfect. That's 15 points, plus he keeps his conditions. :) It was a 103.5, so he put good effort in.
Val's Desert didn't co-operate, and he took off to win his second sprint in Spain in a row. That's worth 18 points, so I guess I can't complain :) Not to mention the 107.6 speed rating. :)
Joe's Machine just didn't quite have it. But he went 90.8, to at least break 90.
Skin Jumping ran same-track in a restricted starter tag and mopped the field for a relatively easy 99.7 speed victory. Glad to see him back in the winner's circle.
Straight Time couldn't even win her even-odds 9f dirt claimer. Geez. I'm 99% sure I'm going to lose her, and you know what? I don't really care.
Tsultress continues her incredible run of ITM finishes. This time she only ran 83.8 in an A2x run, but it was good for the #2 slot. Wish I could get her in the winner's circle, but I'll take this week after week.
Had a few other performances, but those are the highlights. Good luck, guys.
(14-3-3-1-4-1, only 2 out of top 5. 7/14 ITM isn't great for me, but things are going to get tougher in the near future, and I didn't enter many horses in starter-allowances . . .).
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| 3 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 27230119
Sat, Mar 23, 2002, 13:22
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Toral do you still like the Hansel x Saratoga Six x Norcliffe breeding as you suggested in the week 1306 thread? If so, I will try to breed that next week in the gurupie stable. Open to other suggestions as well. There should be right at 400 BP's to work with and plenty of nags to eleminate.
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| 4 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 23, 2002, 15:36
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StLCards That particulsr combo was just one I saw open very late in that particular week, when you definitely wanted to do an immediate breeding. I wouldn't pay big money for it especially.
Toral
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| 5 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 27230119
Sun, Mar 24, 2002, 01:10
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My great string comes to an end as somebody finally claimed Her Atoms. I also lost Jumbo Shadow and did pick up anything in return. I am going to breed another 2yo for my last stable spot so I can enter a MO contest for unraced 2yo's. This will give my stlcards1 stable 4 2yo's. Ughh! Will have to dump some into claimers once I can figure out the dogs.
The horse will be "The Golden Knight" Gold Ruler x Ascot Knight x Nashwan.
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| 6 | cab
Donor
ID: 162261320
Sun, Mar 24, 2002, 04:11
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Clam Carnival was one of the few highlights this week...He ran his second 100+ sp in a row(107),winning his race...Unfortunately,due to the hoop-la this week, he is going to lose his tag shortly(I guess it wasn't too far away anyway)...Although he should survive in allowances, it was always nice to have starter allowances as another option...Parade shooting got well beaten in his stakes race,running third...A 94 sp isn't too bad for 16f though...Near of the Orange and Loving that Popper were the other two winners...
Aside from the claims i lost(Neatly till rob,Loving that popper and Lord serpentine)there were a lot of disappointments...I knew it was going to be a bad week to enter horses in claim races...Sky Mining made a very unimpressive debut...She ran down the track and only managed a 51 sp...I made the bad mistake of running her against the boys though...what was i thinking?..Stupid me!!...3 wins and 2 shows from 16 starts is not great at all...
I have been doing some studying(LOL)...I deduced that the bp price of sires in the sim are directly related to their real life stud fees(i guess it's probably not news to you guys but i found it interesting!)...Here is a small sample that led me to this brilliant conclusion!
I took a look at this site and compared the stud fees with bp sire prices...
Stud fees 10k+:
SIRE..........STUD FEE........BP COST
Aptitude..........25k....167
A.P Valentine.....15k....168
Broken Vow........10k....118
Ecton Park........15k....149
El Corredor.......20k....115
Exchange rate.....10k....118
Five Star Day.....10k....83
King Cugat........10k....135
Kurofune..........38k....125
Manachos..........25k....108
Stud fees under 10k:
Menhal............4k....42
Mancini...........3k....36
Jumpstart.........5k....117
Jimran............1k....9
Iron Punch........2k....15
Distant Music.....8.5k..18
Colossus..........2k....15
Cornish Snow......1.25k..35
Certain...........2k....26
Bushwon...........1k....13
It would be interesting to compare the progeny of the two groups in the sim...I would suggest that the first group would outperform the second group(in general)...
I don't really know what value this info has!lol...Just thought i would throw it out there!...
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| 7 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 01:07
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NOTE: Barndog25 is starting up GLOBAL SIMULATED RACING. If anyone wants to join in to a post-ASR stable residency, now's the time. I just sent in my email: barn25dog@aol.com
Cab -- hmm. The sire prices are supposed to reflect a) the # of progeny in the sim and b) the quality of the sire.
I wonder if what you are noticing is a coincidental relationship between stud fees and sire prices, or causal? Maybe Mike uses stud fees to gauge how good a sire is? Very possible. Not what I would have guessed, but he has to use something, and he's got tens of thousands of sires.
Congrats on Clam Carnival! That's an awesome horse you have there.
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| 8 | cab
Donor
ID: 162261320
Mon, Mar 25, 2002, 21:59
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When the breeding got revamped those were the gauges used to determine sire prices Madman...Especially the number in the sim i believe...
Those sires above are relatively new so there has to be a gauge of some sort to determine what cost they will be...My guess is, it is stud fees...
What i'm more curious about is b); Is the stud fee(if indeed that is the gauge)also used when deciding the quality of the sire?...
I am going to breed one or two horses using a few of the newer sires and with the bp bonus i will aim at some of the more expensive ones but it may just turn into a guess as to which ones will be any good...Some I'm looking at at the moment are High Yield,Silic(FR),Stephen got Even,King Cugat,and El Corredor...Also looking at Twining,Warning,Zabeel,and Rhythm(the sire of Ethereal,who won the Melbourne cup last year and also won the BMW in Aussie last saturday)
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| 9 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 11:43
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I tend to agree that stud fee is related to price in the sim, but I believe it is a combination of factors that also includes the race record and earnings of both the sire and his offspring. I believe there has to be a database somewhere that Mike accessess to get the numbers.
Since the SIM is based on probability/statistics it is not much help knowing a Sire's value IRL. For every Sire there also seems to be a certain combination(s) of blood lines that work well. I'm not sure if it is related to Dosage Profile, Rassmussen factor, Nick rating, or any of the other breeding considerations used IRL, or even a combination of some or all of the above. Then on top of everything there is the influence factor of each horse in the line (this is where I think the Dosage Profile comes into play). And there also seems to be a random factor as well as to whether the horse will be a stakes winner, a claimer, or dog food. I think Mike has done a very good job with it all. Afterall, if we really could figure it out, then where would the fun be?
Cab Just looked at the lineage of High Yield. Yikes, that looks like a great Sire. Let me know when your done with him, I might have to give him a try myself. There aren't any 2yo's available, but there is a 3yo still this week. 300+BP's right now though.
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| 10 | cab
Donor
ID: 162261320
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 22:30
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I would agree with you STL...There would be a number of factors that we probably will never know about...I have been trying to figure out how to make the best "guesstimate" possible when choosing a sire lol...If High Yield is still available ,grab him, STL...I haven't really decided what i am going to do...
This is probably a slightly touchy subject but:...On the NWRC board someone posted that the pool has ben refreshed,if anyone is looking at starting another stable...Also, check out races 14 and 15 at the NSW track...All of Gaz's horses have been entered in 2k claimers...If he is going to opt out of the sim, i hope that those horses are well dispersed between trainers...
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| 11 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 14227261
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 23:16
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I read through a thread he started on the MB that said he put them in claimers to try to get them in other stables. Claims he was trying to create super stables to give away as prizes. Yeah right.
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| 12 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 14227261
Wed, Mar 27, 2002, 00:04
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I went ahead and joined GSR. See you there.
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| 13 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Wed, Mar 27, 2002, 23:34
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Track 54. I tried to get madman1 to enter a horse there, but you beat me out in that MSW, STL!!
There are about a dozen horses available there that will give you, guaranteed, 10 wins in 6 months, barring injury.
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| 14 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, Mar 28, 2002, 10:57
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Well, Let's hope I'm fortunate enough to get one. Any suggestions as to the top 5? I haven't looked them over yet. I have horses from two stables in 54 IIRC.
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| 15 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, Mar 28, 2002, 13:58
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I didn't use High Yield but I did put in for my 2nd 2yo in my stlcards3 stable. I am breeding in an empty slot of which I have 2, so it may not go through in the unlikely event I claim 2 horses this week from Gaz.
I'm using Flying Spur (Danehill, Mr. P, Sir Ivor) as the Sire. Will mate him with a dam out of L'enjoleur (Buckpasser x ND x Chop Chop) as that has the potential for a Rasmussen factor to occur.
Famed US breeding expert Leon Rasmussen has for many years highlighted the outstanding success of racehorses that are in-bred to superior females through different individuals and dubbed the phenomenon the "Rasmussen Factor" (RF).
The list of famous racehorses throughout the world that are bred in this manner - "RF's" - reads like a who's who of the turf. Superstars such as Nijinsky II, Sir Ivor, Nasrullah, Forli, Roberto, Habitat, Blushing Groom, Damascus, Unbridled, Alcide, Dahlia are all RF's.
The dam-dam-sire will be Fast Play as one of the best Nicks out of Flying Spur has Fair Play as DS. Fast play is by Seattle Slew x Buckpasser x Hasty Road.
Nicks have become an integral part of the decision-making process in the mating and purchasing of Thoroughbreds. Most breeders recognize that an affinity or compatibility can exist between two Thoroughbred sire lines, such that, when crossed, those lines yielded a greater proportion of superior runners than when either one of them are crossed with other lines. Great breeders, from Federico Tesio (whose most important legacy to the Thoroughbred breed was Nearco, whom he bred specifically with a nick in mind) to present-day breeders around the world have relied on observed nicks to help guide their breeding plans and decisions.
Who knows if it will work, but I like the lines anyway.
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