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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1348
Posted by: Toral
- Sustainer [2111201313] Thu, Mar 28, 2002, 10:39
cab: cab,cab31,pepe31,bacup,cab35
Madman: Madman999, madman3, madman4, rotciv
StLCards: stlcards, stlcards1, stlcards2, stlcards3, devil01
Toral: toral, larot, toral2, toral6
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| 1 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Mar 28, 2002, 10:44
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I have 5 favourites running out of 10 horses this week -- and that really scares me because it's when I've had slates like this that I've had my worst weeks, riddled with flops.
Anyway...
The oddmakers like Hank's Rattles (7/2*) at the usual 6 furlongs in New Jersey 0906.
And they like Kangaroo Minstrel, who has been cold recently, at 3-2* in Finland 6104.
And bargain-breed Code Keeper (7/2*) in Maryland MC 0808.
And bargain-basement claimer type I'm Gonna Get Lost (8/5*) in Idaho 3010.
And...putative stable star juvenile Reification goes off at 8/5* on the turf in his first race in North Florida 4608.
Good luck to all.
Toral
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| 2 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, Mar 28, 2002, 19:12
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How is this horse 99/1 odds? # 10271 Colonel Tarzan, Race 1348.1008. He is from my daughters stable. Has only run 3 races and won LTO. 99/1 seems outrageous compared to the field he is against. Worst jock doesn't help.
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| 3 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, Mar 29, 2002, 01:45
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stlcards -- the computer takes a weighted average of your previous speed ratings to calculation odds.
Furthermore, very young horses also might have a bit influence by breeding.
Your horse has two awfully slow races, killing the speed average.
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| 4 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 14227261
Fri, Mar 29, 2002, 23:36
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Hero Grub Moving out of starter allowances this week into seemingly easier competition in a NW3x 8f dirt race in MS. Drew one of the top jocks for the ride. Hero Grub is trying for her 5th consecutive race over 100SP. At 2/1 odds she is the favorite, and she has everything going her way. 3 weeks rest and a distance she likes. Hoping for her 8th win.
French Iron I couldn't find a decent claim race this week, so went to a 14f starter allowance in Portugal. Definitely outclassed, but it is only a 6 horse field and he could sneak in a 3d if he runs a great race. Last 4 races have all been 16f, so dropping to 14 might lead to a good race.
Stolen Boundary is surprisingly going out as 2nd favorite in VA in a $2K str All over 5.5f turf. I have my doubts but we'll see what happens.
I've got 2 horses entered in NSW for a grab at some of Gaz's horses. We'll see how that goes, but I have'nt been too successful to date.
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| 5 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 14:13
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Bad week. Bad week.
The good news is that Ms. Secretive has shown herself to be a surface-versatile homebred, and is now 2 for 2 in races. Bad news is that she's stuck around 80 speed . . .
Perfect Storm Too -- a bargain bred horse that is a 2 year old -- won his maiden claimer. He's going to get snagged, I would imagine. Fine by me. I wasn't thinking when I bred him -- basically, there's no point to having bargain bred 2 year olds -- they take too long between races and won't develop. Nice to know I got most of my points back from him.
Otherwise, I had some awful performances.
Tow's Terms managed to get beat in his 7.5f race. Ran only a 94.2. Georgia Park was off his game, and finished 2nd in 91.2. Jericho Velvet only managed 94.0 in a 6f turf sprint, good only for 3rd in an A4x race. Sigh. And it gets worse.
In Quest of Gold fell apart in his 2nd 2 year old race -- 57.2. I think it's because the distance was shorter. Finished 5th. Snow Storm finished 5th in a C2L race of all places. Ugh. American Mint ran 9th in 74.7 in an 8f Turf race. Ugh, ugh.
My homebreds are stinking it up.
Furthermore, Private Count is falling totally part. She ran a 79.1 over 8.5f. Unbelievable. This is a horse that has gone 100, IIRC. I set the jockey start%, maybe that was my mistake. Or maybe this filly has quit running.
Agriculture Bomber has had his last chances with me. CPU 125, he runs 88.1 over his best distance (where he's gone 100).
All in all, I had 4th places out the wazoo. Very disappointing. All these 100+ speed runners historically, and not a single 95+ speed performance. Not to mention the awful ITM%. Sigh.
Now, I get to wait and see how few of gaz's horses I got.
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| 6 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 15:10
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Holy Mackinaw! Generally my horses are stinking up the joint but my 3-year-old bargain breed, Code Keeper, won his MC $13.5 event pulling away! This looks like my best-homebred horse ever, and he only cost 25 points! None of my 400+ pointers has won a damn thing (well, City O'Gold won once in a claimer, 8 months after I bred him)
You know, the CBers were on to something with the idea of bargains breeds just one generation removed from great sires. Too bad they put their discovery to perverse use, tho.
Toral
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| 7 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 16:56
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Toral -- I have to agree with you on that one (bargain sires one step away). I don't know that you will ever get super-duper runners, but I've only had one real failure that way -- Ballroom Blitz.
The two newest 25 point horses I made both won their Maidens FTO in low-tag claim races, and have gone 1-1-0-2-0 in 4 races since. Furthermore, my only 2 stakes wins came from a bargain cheapie. Conversely, the worst horse I bred was Miswaki Music -- for 200+ points. UGHUGH.
The main advantage is that you don't have to race them against the big colts and fillies, and few people dare to enter their horses into tag races unless their horses are really, really bad.
HOWEVER, if you ever want a graded stakes winner, you've got to go royalty all the way. The bargain breds just don't develop.
But that's why I'm starting to like the idea of breeding them, taggin them in their first race for 2K, then running them in starters for awhile. . . at least right now (this time of year) there just aren't any quality 3 year olds with extremely low tags. Something that makes a ton of sense if you think about it. Who's going to breed a super great 3 year old and then put him in a 2K claimer? The only real competition will come from computer horses . . .
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| 8 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 17:29
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TOO COOL I think stlcards and I got some good gaz nags. I didn't check anyone else.
Stlcards got Argentine Dove -- basically unlimited and unknown upside. I tried to get this guy.
He also got the STORM CAT kid, Hanging Rock!!! Totally sweet for breeding when he gets older, and should be serviceable in the meantime!!!
I snagged Honey Bunny with Rotciv stables. Honey Bunny has Affirmed x Irish River(fr) breeding, and has one stake win to her credit. A 4 year old, this horse might really develop. If not, check that breeding again!!! Wu-hoo! Finally, a filly I can breed. Furthermore, this horse WON at 9f in 93 speed -- AND HAS NEVER BEEN TRIED AT THAT DISTANCE AGAIN! If this horse can run marathons or routes, it's going to be one stud mother . . .
Madman1 snagged Christmas for Tops. OK, so this horse isn't a top tier guy, but should be good for 2K starters. With only 2 wins, and a 2K tag, there are lots of places he might go. Plus, even though he's 5, this Stop the Music progeny has gone 100+ 3 times in his career. I dunno. The most questionable of all these horses. But still with options.
Congrats, STL. Hopefully some of you guys also got some good nags.
I lost banana rain in a 25K claimer. Go figure that one, guys.
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| 9 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 17:30
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BTW, to illustrate why that was so absurd, banana rain went off at 23/1 against. In a 25K claimer. Uh . . . never gone faster than 83 . . .
Oh well. cleans out a stable spot! No big loss.
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| 10 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 282223017
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 17:30
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Terrible week for me. I'm not sure what happened to Hero Grub, but she got beat pretty badly in a mediocre field. Stolen Boundary managed to place but all my others were out of the money. My 3yo homebred Ally's King was at least closing at the end and may need to go longer. I plan to stretch him out a bit more next race. Haven't bothered to download the raceout to see speeds.
I did manage to claim one horse from Gaz. Argentine Dove. This horse had run 100+ on turf one race before being abused.
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| 11 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 282223017
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 17:33
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Thanks Madman, I didn't realize I also got Hanging Rock! That is too cool. My weekend just got better.
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| 12 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 17:34
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Geez, I didn't see the Track 54 claiming bonanza early enuf to enter one there. Frankly I'd just as soon not have any, to be able to keep completely clear of the stinking Gaz situation, including its aftereffects. (No criticism meant towards anyone who did take advantage -- nothing wrong with that.)
Toral
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| 13 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 18:11
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Hey, I got a claimer! With the hectic baseball week I only had time to put in claims for one of my stables, and didn't get the good ones at the same track. But I did get one of my go-to-the-bottom-track-to fill-out-the list claimers...T At Fault (#6943). The horse won the race and I may have no use for him but the son of a bitch CBer ididit gets no bonus points from this win! With 2 wins the horse is prob too good to me but if it meansd screwing up the plans of a [insert epithet] CBer the money and BPs are very well spent in my view.
Toral
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| 14 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 282223017
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 18:13
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I just detected a virus (js seeker) when going to the sim. Anyone else have a problem?
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| 15 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 23:21
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stlcards -- yes. You MUST have virus protection to visit the sim. Nasty situation, been a problem for several weeks now.
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| 16 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Mar 30, 2002, 23:46
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StLCards I thot I posted before, but apparnetly not -- the js seeker virus comes from one of the pop-up ads. It affected my computer and some others. It was discussed on the message board, gone now I guess with no archives.
I suppose it doesn't speak well for Mike that, knowing about the virus situation, he has keps the pop-up ads. But I have learned from this that I need (and have) Mcaffee.com ongoing virus protection. You no doubt know this, but I wasn't aware til recently that one could get a virus without downloading something.
Toral
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| 17 | cab
Donor
ID: 292342810
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 09:13
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Congrats on snagging those horses guys...I put in for a couple but wasn't really expecting to get any since i didn't bother running any horses at the track..I did snare a Storm cat 3yo though , Wet beer belly...He hasn't shown anything in 4 starts but has yet to be tried past 6f so who knows...
I hope your theory about having to have royalty blood is a little bit off base Madman!...Chief Coy could be bred for the minimum of 25 pts!...He won another stakes race today(95sp) and his next start is going to be in a graded(3) race in week 1369...
I actually bred another Petrel's flight (The sire of Chief Coy) horse last week and he finished second in a 35mclm race(68sp)...I might look at breeding more with him!...There are only half a dozen or so in the sim...One other one is a pretty handy type as well...
Overall,racing wise, it wasn't a great week...One win and 2 seconds from 9 starters...Time do do some serious culling i am thinking...
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| 18 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Mar 31, 2002, 16:03
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cab -- you're getting the CURRENT sire price confused with general bargain babies. Petrel's Flight price jumps to 65+ at the beginning of the week. Same thing for Chief Coy's sire.
With all that said, I'd be very surprised to see a 110+ ever from Chief Coy (what you will eventually need to compete in 4yo+ stakes). But who knows.
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