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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1362
Posted by: StLCards
- Sustainer [2504849] Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 10:18
cab: CAB,CAB31,PEPE31,BACUP,CAB35
Madman: Madman999, madman3, madman4, rotciv
StLCards: stlcards, stlcards1, stlcards2, stlcards3, devil01
Toral: toral, larot, toral2, toral6
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| 1 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 10:19
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Madman What is the Madman theory on distance vs. start % again? I'm still a bit fuzzy on that. thanks.
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| 2 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Wed, Apr 10, 2002, 00:32
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OK, I found the thread, week 1299. I might give this a try with a few horses.
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| 3 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Wed, Apr 10, 2002, 01:01
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StlCards -- remember it is a THEORY at this juncture. I'm going to try to get Private Count into a 12f race. The theory states that she shouldn't make it, since she's hit the 100% start mark at 9f . . . we shall see.
Honestly, I just spent an hour doing race entries. UUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH. Longest I've ever spent doing them. Busy this week, and just didn't have the will. Got'em done, however. Now I'm glad I did -- going to be one whale of a Saturday. I don't know how many runners I've got, but it's going to be well over 20.
ALSO, if you have free time, check out 5411. Remember that experiment I did regarding breeding a cheapie, running them for a very low tag FTO, and then, if they were capable, run them in restricted starters???? WOW! If I'm right, I have a great chance at a same-track starter allowance victory in 5411. We'll see after the races get carded.
Why is this strategy working? Honestly, when I did it, I didn't hold out a lot of hope. But I was having difficulty snagging my own low-tag starters, so I figured -- what the heck, why not breed your own?
I think the keys are 1) breed cheapies so you can lose them in the first race and who cares. And they won't attract attention in that first race. 2) this is a spring-only strategy.
Right now, there are weak 3 year old ONLY starter races. I hadn't thought this through at the time, but think about it -- almost all the 3 year olds in the game right now come from either personal homebreds or new stables. New stables haven't had time to run enough races to enter their 3 year olds in 2K races, so none of those horses can get into 3 year old only 2K starters. This means that the only group of horses that has much probability of qualifying are homebreds . . . but think about that for a second -- you create a homebred . . . how easily are you to dump him into a 2k claimer?????? !!!!!!!!!! The only 3yo horses with those tags are TRULY AWFUL! (note: possible *computer horses are out there, but they can win Stakes races right now, and are targetting Derby's etc.)
In other words, it's a huge hole in the race-carding program. :) And I've got two horses -- Ms. Secretive with a 4K tag and Meteor Shower with a 2K tag -- sitting there waiting to take advantage of it. In a few months when their tags wear off, I'll probably be able to get a few claim races out of them, too. This has been a SWEEEEET points deal with those two horses, and I don't think it's because I've gotten particularly lucky with their quality; that was a positive, but the real points are going to be rolling in because of a lack of competition. Even if Ms. Secretive can only finish 3rd out of 4 horses, that's still something like 10 or 13 points. :):):)
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| 4 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Wed, Apr 10, 2002, 10:45
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I guess I should have said I was thinking of "testing" the theory, using either the Gurupie stable or devil01. Not sure I really have a proven "sprinter only" in either of them though. I think the thoery has merit for horses that typically aren't lead horses. Lead horses will most always start out near 100%, but still run different distances.
5411 There's only 2 horses even signed up for that race! Maybe you have found a pocket there. I have a couple of 3yo's with tags, but none that fit that race. Maybe I'll search for some other low tag 3yo races and see how they look.
1 whole hour to enter all your horses? I probably spend close to 1/2 hour on each horse, except for claimers! Looking through the SSS, trying to find their best surface/distance, things I want to try, claim vs starter, allowance restrictions, etc, etc. What's your secret?
I may wind up with a great betting horse this week. The average speed should come up pretty low, 82, 87, 7, 7, 0. This is #70029 Argentine Dove claimed from Gaz. I'm passing on the starter allw. this week in favor of a *40 Allw. 6f turf race. This horse ran a 101 on turf before Gaz abused it. Not many in the field will compete with that if he draws in.
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| 5 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Wed, Apr 10, 2002, 15:04
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StLCards, I take more time than Madman but save time by picking out and making a brief note of the races a horse is being trained for (actually just the track) whenever I reset the "train for" week, using the "Find Races" function. Since the buying of races, these races sometimes disappear, which is annoying; and sometimes the quality of entrants in a few races must be compared on entry day before I decide which one is #1. But it saves some time; and the total work is split between Sat/Sun and entry time Tues/Wed.
Toral
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| 6 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Wed, Apr 10, 2002, 22:49
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stlcards 30 minutes per horse OMG. I spend all my time on message boards and stuff. I hate to actually spend anytime doing racecarding.
I dunno -- I don't have anything super secret. Here's what I do:
Sunday -- update my horse status with MadTrainer2000.
Sunday PM -- download all races into MadTrainer2000.
Sunday-Tuesday, sometime -- open SSS, MadTrainer2000, and a web-browser. In MadTrainer, I select each horse that I want to race, and it tells me all the races that horse qualifies for this week. I might boot the SSS in case i don't remember what I want to do with the horse, or if it hasn't had much success lately. I then usually refine the MadTrainer2000 race-listing to target exactly the distance and conditions I'm interested in attacking.
For example: Meteor Shower. I know I want to target 3yo only, F, 2K-5K starter races with this horse. Once I think I have a niche for a horse, I blindly stick with it. There are 5 races she qualifies for, the travel costs for all of them were too high, but in this case I really wanted to hit the starter tag heavily, so I went ahead and entered her in 2 starter tags that hit the distances and surfaces I thought would be best. 2 minutes, max. (oh yeah, enter the 2 races in the web browser entry matrix page). Etc., etc. The horses that take a lot of time are horses that don't have a niche or horses that happen to have no good race options this week.
Lastly, after entering all horses for a stable, I view all race tracks. I then switch sheets in the MadTrainer2000, type in the track numbers for that stable and how many jockeys to select per track, and then click "submit jockeys". All done with that stable, and move on to the next.
I entered 25 horses in, I think, 1:10 or so this week.
Now, you should be aware that the above strategy really FUBARS sometimes. The odds for DDAY in 3215 are 31/1. UGHUGHUGH. This is a horse that needed a claiming race on turf, but nothing looked good, so I went with an allowance run. BIG MISTAKE. She's gonna get killed. Someone who was more careful wouldn't have done that.
I've said this before, but I can post a copy of the MadTrainer2000 if you want. One problem is that my racefinder in it relies on knowledge of Excel Advance Filters. If you know those, you can zoom. If not, well, the instructions would be a pain to write.
---------------------------
My runners this week (25): HIGHLIGHTS:
Snow Storm 30K claimer, EVEN odds. going to lose this horse, should mop the field. Sigh. But he wasn't competitive in Allowance runs, and, frankly, rotciv needs the money. Same track claimer :) SO if he's not claimed, I could be in for some very good points :).
Agrippina GOT IN A RACE!!! Second choice -- 9.5f turf run. Her 6.5f dirt race was AWFUL, FTO. Hoping that she can go the distance here. Just glad she's running after 5 consecutive failed entries.
Meteor Shower and Ms. Secrective. 5411 for Ms. Secretive, and she ought to win at the same track :):) Both these guys have great odds in their starter allowances :)
Private Count 12f test, 5/2 odds in 7712. We shall see if she can go the distance. Quality of competition is not good here, so if she's ever going to win at 12f, this would be the time.
Check out 4514. WOW. Three 109 speed horses in a 10K turf sprint starter. UNBELIEVABLE. Poor Jericho Velvet. May run second to all-time Turf Starter Allowance Speed horse, Boundless Republic again.
Enigmatic a 2 year old sprinter, going in 0811. Will be interesting.
Georgia Park is Even odds in his starter. I found a niche with this guy. Wish I remembered when his tag was going to disappear. Track is sloppy, so weird things could happen.
Light Jupiter is in a hot KY allowance sprint.
Tsultress looks hopelessly outclassed to win, but she hopelessly outclasses the remainder of the field, so she might be in for yet another one of her prodigiously popular places :) (2nd all the time, it seems)
Wood Nymph 2 year old F, goes off at 4/1 in high-purse MSW in 0111. Going to be exciting to watch this run; she should be bred to run on the green stuff, and that's where she's entered.
Secret Society check this test out. Going to be very interesting. Horrible turf try FTO for this horse. However, given my experience with Babified Opossum and routes, I think he deserves another shot at it to know for sure. Based strictly on speed, he's 6/1. Unfortunately, given his turf preferences . . .
All in all, I have a ton of low-odds horses. But some of those are too-favored. Like Secret Society. Like Private Count who is unproven at 12f. Etc.
Even with all that, I could score bookoo points in GSR this week. Only 20 of the 25 runners are GSR stables. 5 are Madman1 where I'm running Gaz's Christmas for Topps there.
Going to lose one or two horses in claimers, at least. Gotta go do some research on that front this week.
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| 7 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 00:18
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Not as good of odds as I was thinking, but at 7/1 I think #70029, Argentine Dove (#7 horse) is as close to a sure bet as you can get in race 5505. Biggest problem is I didn't choose a jockey, but I doubt that matters much.
Hero Grub back in str allw ranks, goes off at 4/5 in Ontario at 6f dirt. Again, the jock could be a problem, but only a 6 horse field. SHould be a win or place for sure.
My 2yo River of Gold Again is running her second race in MO this week at 6/1 odds. This one drew the best jock and most other horses haven't yet run a race. This looks to be a win (fingers crossed).
Sally Plow my majestic light x caerleon mare is being given a distance test this week. 12f on dirt in Neb. A truly pathetic jock so I'm tempted to set the riding options, but don't have a clue as to what might work.
Dance List another 2yo homey is running in MO. Hopefully I can get at least one 2yo win eventually!
A few others going as well.
Madman I think Trainer2000 might drive me mad, but please do post it and I will see if it works for me. I know a bit about sql querys and Excel filters can't be that hard. I can always ask my friend for help.
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| 8 | Fletch
ID: 11319611
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 01:25
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Howdy guys. Member me? Well anyway. I finally got hooked up at home again, so I don't have to look over at work so much when I am doing the races. Looks like you guys have been kicking some serious data around here. Things are looking pretty good for me this week with the oddsmakers. Here are some of the highlights:
Hilltop Plan I noticed that Madman had mentioned the 3 year old STRALW loophole in the system. I have been racking up some serious B.P.'s this year using that loophole, and it looks like Hilltop will keep things going. She came in at 4/5 odds, and should bring home the bacon.
Gingers Guitars OK. Misplaced this one.One of them gambles on a lightly raced 4 year olds that wont make ALW caliber. I'll be dropping him back where I found him ASAP.
Landlock(GB) I'm pretty excited about this 3 year old. He posted a solid 84 at 8 furs for his old owner. I bumped him up 5k in the MC class, and he came away at 2/1 odds.
Zipadeedooda A copied breeding project gone horribly wrong. I will lose her cause she is lightly raced, but I wasn't doing anything with her except for wasting barn space. Good riddance! 8/1 odds might bring her back for one last feeding.
Harbor Learn I picked this lightly raced three year old up in hopes that he would at least pan out at the STR level. Nope! Back to the MC's he goes. And at 12/1, he will probably stay for awhile.
Drama Princess I am hoping to get one of those cheap, race them at the longest possible distance and hope you don't have the worst horse running. At 9/1, this could make a good side bet.
I have 17 more to report, but its getting late, so i'll pick up where I left off tomorrow. Again, nice talking, errrrrrrr, typing with you guys again.
Fletch
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| 9 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 06:21
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How's it going Fletch....I see that you have started well in the Yahtzee challenge!..
Chief Coy drew into a grade 2 race in Kentucky this week(0315)...He's at odds of 10/1 which isn't too bad really...The fav is at 3/1 and the majority of the rest are at odds between 6/1 and 14/1...This race will test him!...He came up sharp one week earlier than i wanted...
Silics Gift is making her debut(2910)..At odds of 14/1 so the cpu doesn't like her too much...She is sharp though...
Clam carnival is in a tough allowance race(2609)...At odds of 8/1...One of the other runners has run a 117 before so , i don't expect he will keep up with that , without a definate jump in improvement..
Danger Tow is probably my best shot at getting a win...He runs in a str all. at odds of 2/1...
I think i will chuck some dough on Argentine Dove STL!...
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| 10 | Fletch
ID: 24340119
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 11:21
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Yeah Cab. I am doing very well since my return. Which brings me to an interesting theory. Madman, you might have to help me with this one, cause I am a little rough around the edges when it comes to simonomics.
Since leaving ASR, which we all know is not restricted to any particular tracks, and joining the NWRC, which only allows races at 11 tracks, my ITM%, win%, quaility of claims, BP production, etc has all sky rocketed. Most of my stables are at the top of the contests that are offered at the NWRC.
So to uncover what is going right all of a sudden, I ask myself, what am I doing differently from when I last was racing consistantly every single weekend. Well I already told you. I have restricted my race choices to just 11 tracks. You would think that this would decrease my overall percentages, but that is not the case.
Possible reasons why?
1) Well out of the 11 tracks, I have my favorites. So in all 8 of my stables, I have my Jockey sheet loaded with the 2 jocks I favor the most at each track, obviously one of the tracks, I only have one. But week in and week out, I usually draw the same riders at each track. So the majority of my glue are riding consistant performers on a Jockey Select pace.
2) Instead of purse hunting, which is pointless with the simbuck equaling 1/10th of a peso, I don't really mind that over half of the NWRC tracks are low to mid level tracks. Obviously drawing lesser compitition.
3) My 3 yr old claiming strategy. What is this? Well Madman has touched on it briefly. I have picked up some very good ponies this year out of the 3 yr old claiming level. They have either been misraced by their previous owner, or have not been given a fair shot at proving themselves.
Here are some examples of 3 yr old claimers, that have shined for me so far:
Simple Brush #66048 Claimed this boy his first time out for 10k, and his next 4 races for me brought in 1 win, 1 place and 2 shows. I misraced him in the Ironhorse because of a brief lapse in sanity, howver, a solid sp#90 back in 1327 insures me that I can always drop him down to an STR10k when it is available.
DOS MAGIC CB VA 31180 Thank you claim bandits. A quick switcharoo back to turf, and she won her first race for me. Granted, she may not be much past the claimer level, but 20k and 5 B.P.'s got me a win.
Those two nags alone are in my ggnew stable which is leading Div 1 in the NWRC.
Motor Elrod(GB) #64404 My best example of taking a calculated gamble on a lightly raced three year old. Actually, I probably got lucky with this claim as I am sure their were numerous other trainers jockeying (pun?) for this one. 7 races with a 4-2-0 was well worth the 20k I claimed him at. He is on a three race winning streak including the Ironhorse which was against older ponies.
Their are others in my stables including TABASCO GEORGE #72077, GOLF LEA #14002. But for every good example, I have maybe 4-5 bad apples. Any other thoughts out there?
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| 11 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 12:35
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Hey, Fletch, nice to see you.
Talk about a stable with low odds types -- larot has 5 horses going. Lost Court at 5/1 under Fontain in a $15.5 claimer in 5905 Ireland is the least favored. Alsterimist is a 2/1* favourite in a $10KN2L claimer in 2007 Indiana. Chief Tom finally gets dumped into claimers and is 5/2* in 2103 Michigan. Sadly he didn't get an off track. And then -- two 1/9 favourites! Chief Northern is 1/9 in a 10K Starter at 12 furlongs in Italy. He's a false favourite because he probably can't go 12, and the second choice, Boston Mars at 4/1, has won 8 straight 12-furlong starter allowances, the last 7 in Italy! Might be worth looking at betting wise, although I won't bet against my own horse. And Barefoot Morris is 1/9 in a $3.5KN2L claimer in Rhode Island 7309, for which only 3 *computer horses showed up! I wonder if I will lose him -- no one has shown any interest in him in very similar races in the past, but I wonder if someone will put in a claim just seeing a 1/9 choice. He will probably win the race, which lessens his value (such as it is) quite a bit, since N2Ls are a lot easier to find than N3Ls.
Good luck to all.
Toral
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| 12 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 12:57
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At work, not much time.
1) Good to see you fletch. :) Why the sudden reappearance?
2) The situation you describe is indeed counter to pure economic theory. However, I believe what you have observed (restricting your sample set => improved performances) can actually help you train your horses better. I'll have to look into what you are doing. Should be interesting.
Quite frankly, I was thinking about doing the opposite strategy -- restrict myself to NON-resident tracks :)) The idea being that the competitive level in non-resident tracks has got to be easier . . . If you are placing better at track with more runners . . . well, as I said, I need to see what you are doing. maybe you are finding niches with few runners in them. These probably exist even at popular tracks.
Thus, the improvement could be coincidental, or the improvement might be EVEN GREATER if you were not track-restricted . . . But having some restrictions to force you into new ways of thinking -- despite what economic theory indicates -- can yield positive benefits. That's actually why I created those two low-tag 3 year only starter horses. I was getting annoyed at submitting claims and not getting the horses, so I decided I HAD to do something else to acquire some functional horses.
I should note, however, that this gap in the sim will almost certainly start to shrink starting now because more 3 year old horses will acquire 2K tags. By August will almost be non-existent as 3 year old only races disappear totally.
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| 13 | Fletch
ID: 24340119
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 13:16
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The reappearance has everything to do with hooking my comp back up at home. I go with netzero, which is 9.95/month. So consequently, I have more time in the evenings and early morning to devote to racing my ponies. Not too mention, that the time I was away showed me that I really missed this great game. Anyway, long story short. I think I can learn alot from all of you in here. Especially with all of the experiments you have cooking. Not too mention the NWRC track MB is not all that active, so I need my daily fix on talking about this game. Anyway. Thanks for the analysis Madman. If there is any more information I can provide for you let me know. Although with the SSS, you can see everything eh? :)
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| 14 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 17:37
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Saw this on the message board. South Dakota, #58324, race 4313, 2K claimer, mis-entered horse.
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| 15 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Thu, Apr 11, 2002, 23:49
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Bet Discussion Thinking while typing to save me time. Hope that's OK . . .
1362.4512 : Starter Allowance ($2,000) All horses, 4 years old and up, Two miles on the Firm Turf Course, Purse : $7,200
I was going to suggest a bet on Wooden Nijinsky (3/1). Too risky, however.
Connecticut, Race ID 1362.7614 : Claiming ($7,500) All horses, 4 years old and up, Two miles on the Fast Dirt Course, Purse : $8,800
#3 El Smouldering (7/2) is a very safe pick to win.
But the odds aren't too good.
OK, I don't see any great 14f+ picks. . . Thus, I'm going with the following:
A: ARGENTINE DOVE #7 in 1362.5505 at 7/1,
B: Uhhhh, that's it.
Size of bet to win #500K = 500/7 = $71,500 to win.
I'd like a few other bets to do the "cab averaging" thing.
BTW, Thanks StLCards. Good pick.
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| 16 | Fletch
ID: 2341120
Fri, Apr 12, 2002, 01:19
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I left off with Drama Princess, so I will continue on down the line.
Next on the list of ponies racing is Timeless Cut: Nothing special about this old boy. Your run of the mill low level claimer. Came in at decent odds (7/2) so I am hoping for a ITM finish.
Bart Case Goes along with my claiming lightly raced 3 yr old strategy. I am bumping him up to ALW company after a solid 83 SP in his last outing. Oddsmakers dont like him much at 9/1, but I might lay a little cash on him.
S.O.A.D. I have had no luck with my two year old crop this year. I think I might have copied lineages from horses who prefer distance. Oh well. Heres SOADs second go. I'm looking for one of them dramatic second time improvements. 9/1 gives me a little hope.
Talented TwoI probably jumped the gun with a STR try. But I wanted to see if I couldn't take advantage of the low 3.5 tag. I also switched to turf as he boast a 3 race 1 place, 1 show record. 8/1 should make it close.
Golf Lea Another 3 yr old claim who has paid some dividends for me. I'm hoping I don't lose her in a claim but the 2/1 might see a change in owners. She earned her feed.
Sad Cielo Nice sp's for a pup. Just can't win at the ALW level. Another go this week at 17/1 is screaming at me to drop him in a high claimer. Thers always next week I guess.
Inebriated Quilt I got this girl for 20k, based on her being lightly raced, and affirmed as the dam. I nudged her up to the 50k level to test her against some stiffer comp. If I lose her, I am 30k richer, and if I don't we shall see. I have some good feelings about her. 8/1 could be a bet for my stables.
Water Spring No thrills claimer. 7/1 could go either way.
Yukon Dance I've had this girl in my stables a few times over. She never produces, but throws down nice SP's, so I continue to claim her, lose her, and claim her again.She went off at 3/2 so I will probably lose her again.
Different Book Lightly raced gamble at 50k.I am stretching his legs out at 12 furs to see if he can compete. 8/1.
Judge Shananie Another lightly raced gamble at 50k, picked up in the same race as Different Book. Has won, and showed in both Turf route attempts with no trys on the dirt. This one will show me just a little more. 3/1.
Second Road Dropped him way down in class from what I bought him at in hopes of a cheap win. The sim police caught me and slapped 6/1 on this dud.
Pepi Dan My second favorite horse in all of my stables. He actually was one of my original horses when I firsted started the game under the horsepimp guise. When I left the first time, gaz took over all of my horsepimp stables, and began doing his transfer thing. I came back just as he was transferring Pepi, and gave me a heads up. I had the under 20 race advantage, and got him. Thank goodness. He flat loves the lead. He has one his last two stakes tries, and this week should be no different. He drew a 1/5 in a 4 horse field which will exclude him from the NWRC Yahtzee challenge. Oh well. He should blow the wheels off the horses in this one. I know. Famous last words right? By the way.
Rose Log I just cant figure this one out. He has the potential to run with the best of em, and turn around and fumble on the one yard line. 4/1 could be one of those W/P/S bets.
Victory Pye Victory Pye....Ray of Pye.... Won't ever see those two in the same race. 9/1.
Holy Rage Couldn't win until I dropped her in a MC5k. I am hoping she likes winning more than losing. A 10k try at 9/2 gives me alot of hope.
Fairy Dancers Not one of my better examples of my 3 yr old claiming strategy. 7/1 and will prove every decimal point.
Whew! Thats alot of ponies. Anyway. Good luck on Saturday.
Fletch
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| 17 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Fri, Apr 12, 2002, 11:25
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I scanned all the marathon races too Madman...Couldn't come up with anything...Lots of favourites who like the distance this week... STL's, Argentine Dove, does look like the best shot...
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| 18 | Fletch
ID: 24340119
Fri, Apr 12, 2002, 12:06
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Add in the fact that Argentine Dove came from the Gaz training facility. It is sure to show an improvement.
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| 19 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Fri, Apr 12, 2002, 12:41
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Fletch -- yep. That's the only think keeping AD's odds decent in that race. It's a total lock unless he throws a shoe.
I also checked out 4 of your barns that I had in my SSS from way back when. By looking at aggregate stats, I don't see any significant increase or decrease in performances over the past 10 or 8 weeks. I basically compared the first 5 weeks and last 5 weeks to one another (out of the last 10 weeks), and ditto for the 8 week period.
When did you join NRWC? (i.e., week #)?
On the flip side, you are most definitely not doing worse, which is what you would expect.
But my quick impression is that in percentage terms, you aren't winning more; however, you ARE racing substantially more recently. Thus maybe it's a psychological thing -- you see more winners, we all remember our winners easier, thus the impression would be left that winning% had dramatically changed . . . dunno for sure. I didn't do an exhaustive study. Just 10 minute glance.
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| 20 | Fletch
ID: 24340119
Fri, Apr 12, 2002, 13:10
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Thanks buddy. You are right. I am racing alot more. Average maybe 30 runners a week. anyway, thanks for taking a peek.
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| 21 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 01:13
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stlcards 14 holy geez. Yep, that was a serious mistake with Vow of Silence . . .
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| 22 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 01:55
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Holy Macarel, Batman. I don't feel so bad about paying $6 million for Black Tie Senor. I mean, there IS a 3% to 10% chance he'll be a Graded winner, I think.
But someone just paid $6 million for Walther Apple, 9515. He's won 4 races in 38 starts. I think that says it all. Geez.
$6,100,000 for Viking Mischief? OK, this is better than $6m for Walther Apple. But I'd still take my deal.
How about $7 million for Exbourne's Rainbow?
$7.5m for Queen Bushel? Ok, this is probably the best horse of the lot. I'd pay $7.5 for this horse before $6m for Black Tie Senor any day of the week. Never mind.
And then . . . $11,502,000 for Eighty-Nine Hill !!!!! HOLY... This is a horse that will liekly never be a consistent ALLOWANCE winner, let alone a Graded stakes horse . . . MAN.
Even if these are cash or horse transfers, they are DUMB . . .
I think one cool effect of this proxy bidding is that prices in the auction will rise substantially, meaning that a lot of money is going to be sucked out of the sim. $11 million. Man alive. That's 22 weeks of consecutive winning bets. Yeeouch. That's a lot of work, even if you free-ride off of others.
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| 23 | Fletchletch
ID: 2341120
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 13:13
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Highlights include:
Pepi Dan Winning easily his third stakes in a row.
Sad Cielo Thumbing his nose at the oddsmakers and winning his first ALW at 17/1.
Water Spring Nice victory at 7/1
Different book Taking a liking to the distance and winning a 12 fur marathon.
Rose Log Going wire to wire in an Alowance try.
Overall stats for the week: 23-6-2-1-7. Yup 7 4th place finishers. About half are because they were 4 horse fields :(
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| 24 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 13:25
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Back to my usual sort of week. (13)-2-3-3-1-0-4. Of the 4 missed-a-shares, 2 were speed/stamina conditioners. Kangaroo Minstrel, who has been dull recently, was given his first start on dirt, a sprint, and sent out to the lead at low effort; Hank's Rattles was put in a 13 furlong race and told to run from the back, at 100% effort. We will see in a few weeks if anything comes of these training experiments.
The 2 winners were both cheap claimers, Barefoot Morris (the 1/9 shot) and Public Strawberry, in a $4K MC. 2-year-old sprinter Red Tory Theory went for the lead, tired, and finished third.
Toral
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| 25 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 14:53
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What an awful week. D-Press-Ing. Sigh.
Good news is that I have two more horses to add to my "success" list vis-a-vis my start% theory. It correctly predicted the off-performance of Private Count. It also suggested that Georgia Park *might* be able to make 12f, but it was likely at the end of the range. His 79 speed confirmed that, sadly enough, although I need to try again at the distance to check for sure.
Light Jupiter didn't throw a shoe, he just found a ridiculous field. 96.1 is off his game, but geez. Not worth a 9th in A1s competition.
The really depressing part from my perspective is that I basically got totally shut-out of any decent race performances yet again. I had 5 winners, but 4 of those were from bargain bred discounters picking up cheap points. If I have to continue playing this game that way, I'm not sure I really want to.
I did get my 11th horse to go over 100+ speed today, however. DDay went 101.4 over 7.5f on turf to re-set my 4-stable Personal best 7 or 7.5f speed rating. Good for second.
Joe's Machine finally started running like I think he should be able too, but it was only good for a 94.6.
In general, the really, really depressing thing was the performance of my expensive homebreds. Agrippina ran 65.1. Not bad for a 2 year old. But a 3 year old? Good grief. Things aren't looking good for this nag.
Miswaki Music ran 49.9 to confirm her first horrible turf try. Because she had only done one bad turf race, I figured what the heck -- she's proven incapable at everything else. GEEZ. She sucks.
Enigmatic puts the truth to her name. 52.1 at 5f on turf. At least I know she is surface versatile, sigh. She is also a two year old, but bred for sprints, so I'm not too hopeful anymore . . .
Wood Nymph 46.7. I think that says it all. Below-the-median performance from a WoodmanxLear FanxSadler's Wells.
One moral of this story is that it may not be a good idea to use other horses in breeding. I try to only use above-average horses, but these aren't working. Wood Nymph and Enigmatic fit this mold. In Quest of Gold is another, although he still has potential. Of course, this theory doesn't explain Miswaki Music or Agrippina. Maybe I just suck at creating expensive homebreds. Would serve me right, since my discounters almost always seem to be adequate. My slowest discounter (3yo) is Ballroom Blitz who broke her maiden today in 73ish. For 2 year olds, my slowest discounter is Perfect Storm Too, who broke his maiden last week in 58.1. GEEEZ. The world is turned upside down.
I really have no idea where I go from here.
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| 26 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 14:55
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Oh yeah. 20-5-1-3-1-3, in case anyone is counting. 45% ITM despite some horrible, horrible performances by usually regular runners. OK. But as I said before, the only thing saving the % is a bunch of worthless glue entered in weak areas of the sim.
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| 27 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 15:48
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Anyone know if JKAYE is planning to ever take over his barns again?
The reason I'm asking is that I just checked in the SSS, and it's approaching 4 months since he raced any horses. Which means he's risking getting kicked out of the sim. He should be warned . . .
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| 28 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 18:48
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Hmm,Madman, well it's always darkest just before the dawn, or whatever. I enjoy running a claiming stable, but I can sympathize with the frustration when your good horses "hit a wall", or you can't make a step up with anyone of them.
Jericho Velvet has been running every two weeks for a *long* time. Bit of a rest in order, perhaps?
Light Jupiter's 7 best speed figs have all come at 6 or 6.5 furlongs. Nothing but a place at 7 or 7.5. Avoid the 7 furlong events? Some horses just can't handle 7, and a half furlong can make a difference.
No explanation for Tow's Terms.
If you'd had to deal with my allowance horses' forms, you'd *really* be frustrated.
Toral
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| 29 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 22:10
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Toral -- you are probably correct about LJ.
And I understand where you are coming from with Jericho Velvet. The idea that better rested horses should do better makes intuitive sense. But I don't think that's how Mike is modelling the sim. Furthermore, if that was the reason why he isn't doing well the last couple races, then why did he run 109.7 after racing every other week for 7 consecutive races, and running 10 in 20 previous weeks?
I don't understand how running 10 races in 20 weeks could be considered great prep, and at the same time that 13 races in 26 weeks is too much.
Actually, I think the deal with Tow's Terms was a jockey thing. He finished 3rd by a NOSE -- total dead-heat finish. He was kicking in strong, the jockey just mis-timed everything.
Plus, all else equal, he's a dirt horse. He can hit the 105-110 range under perfect conditions on dirt; probably can't break 100 on the green stuff (at 8f distance).
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| 30 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 22:14
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Actually, after watching the race again, my guess for Jericho Velvet's problem was that he always starts towards the back of the pack. He also was in post 14. The field was also incredibly hot.
Soooooo, he dropped back too far too early, and the jockey gave up. We'll see. If he comes back to the barn hurt or groggy, then we know my interpretation is wrong. But if he comes back to the barn his usual RTG, then my theory might be accurate. There's a slim chance he might come back sharp, which would cinch the story.
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| 31 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 22:57
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Well...maybe, Madman. There is a theory propounded on the MBs sometimes, most notable by Hannibal, that RTG, Sharp! and others don't tell the whole story -- that a horse can be "well-tuned", "Sharp!", ready to race at the best of its current ability, even while that level of current ability itself is suffering from over-racing. I forget the exact words used to make the distinction....
I'm skeptical about it myself. Just thought I'd toss out the possibility. I do think it would correspond with RL, and might be programmed in. I've stated my belief before that older horses should as a general rule be able to go every 2 weeks. But within that rule is the caveat in RL that if a horse drops in form for a few consecutive races, then he would probably profit from more rest, even if he appears Sharp! according to the usual indicators.
There is this enigmatic comment by Mike in the FAQs: "A Sharp horse is not necessarily one that should race every time he's sharp; racing a horse consecutive weeks increases his likelihood of injury. It is your job to give your horse the proper rest required. Liken it to a boss telling an employee to get some rest even though they're approaching a major deadline. The employee may seem willing to work but, as a boss, you know tomorrow's work will suffer if he doesn't leave today."
Of course what this doesn't say is whether racing a horse too often but not in consecutive weeks can hurt its form, aside from increased injury risk.
Toral
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| 32 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 23:31
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OMG! Total melt down by Argenine Dove. I can only assume he is coming back injured :( Never again will I bet on one of my horses or suggest a bet to make. I am awful at it.
Hero Grub got back in to the winners circle this week and Stolen Boundary won his 10K claimer.
My 2yo old River of Gold Again jumped to an early lead but came in 2nd losing at the wire.
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| 33 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 13, 2002, 23:39
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Toral -- I understand what you are saying. My point is that there is very little chance Mike has programmed a new fatigue difference that kicks in after 13 races in 26 weeks that did not apply to 10 races in 20 weeks, yes?
And if he did not do that, then your logic, where you rest horses after they throw a few bad races, would have dictated I should NOT have raced him in 1320, since he had thrown 84.8, 94.0 over best distance, 99.4 over best distance, 95.7, 76.2 and 92.2 in his previous 6 races in 12 weeks.
My interpretation of Mike's enigmatic comment is that you should not take RTG or Sharp conditions as a sign that injuries will not happen. In mathematical terms, he's assigning injury probabilities based upon work-loads and other factors. None of these other factors is the condition of the horse. E.g., some horses may come back to the barn "Sharp!", but this doesn't mean that racing them again immediately doesn't increase their injury probabilities.
I also have a number of counter-examples to the "rest them more and they will run better" hypothesis. Private Count is the latest casualty of this theory. She's gotten worse, not better, as I've tried to ease up on her.
Regarding Hannibal's Sharp / RTG theories, I don't think they hold much weight. I will admit that sometimes a horse is Sharp and much more likely to run well than other times they are Sharp. But that's because there are a dozen factors that we KNOW are included in win%.
Like post position, jockey ability, maybe even a track factor, etc. I also am starting to believe there may be a slightly negative autocorrelation between the random draws Mike picks for each horse -- i.e., there is a form cycle that tends to cycle. Good streaks followed by bad streaks, etc.
Otherwise, there is simply no way to explain Joe's Machine and a bunch of other horses that run 10 points below their average for 2-4 races and then bounce back to run 10 points above their average for 2-4 races, etc.
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| 34 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sun, Apr 14, 2002, 00:01
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I think the key is not to "rest them more" but rather to find their optimal running calendar. Hero Grub runs great consistently on 2 weeks rest. Gave her 3 weeks rest the race before this one and she had a bad race at a favorite distance. Go figure. Other horses of mine do seem to do better with more rest though.
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| 35 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sun, Apr 14, 2002, 01:48
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Dastardly Saint ran a nice race from my StLCards2 stable. FTO on 6f dirt and ran a 98 at RTG to break his maiden.
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| 36 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Apr 14, 2002, 02:13
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Wow, stlcards, you ain't kidding! Congrats. You may have a real winner there. Be interesting to see how he stretches out. And he's relatively young, too. Could be a strong gurupie runner for years to come.
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| 37 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sun, Apr 14, 2002, 02:17
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I almost put him straight into maiden claimers too. Hero Grub broke 100 once again reaching 106. All of her good races seem to have come in allowance races so we'll see what happens after her tag is gone. Maybe she has a starter "class".
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| 38 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Apr 14, 2002, 11:06
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Well, Mike has screwed up. All starter allowance tags were supposed to disappear today. OOPS!
Tow's Terms is Layoff!, so that would explain his inability to win a slow 95 speed 8f turf race.
I lost homebred Snow Storm as expected, along with glue Lightning Counting.
I'm in a fascinating mess with Madman3. I haven't been able to acquire any quality nags, so I put bids in for $75,000 claimers this week in that barn. Lo and behold, I got 2 of them!! Wu-hoo!
Two two I got were both 98 speed winners this week. More importantly, they have awesome breeding.
349 Autumn Dancer has a $2,500 Starter Tag, coupled with 100+ speed credentials on turf. This 5 year old male has mediocre lineage -- Touch Gold x Masked Dancer x Secretariat, so I'm going to use him in starters until his tag wears off (should be able 6 months, since he just acquired his tag race before last).
Sky Popping 9275 -- 6 year old Male. 111 speed credentials at 8f. Age may be wearing this horse down, however, since he hasn't gone 100+ this entire year. Pleasant Colony x Nijinsky II x Dr. Fager was the reason I bid on him. In case he can't run in A2s, A2n races, then he's got somewhere to go. There is also a slim chance he can run 9f, I think. Gotta analyze that some more.
I'm obviously saddened by the loss of Snow Storm from Rotciv stables, but, honestly, he was a bargain breed that wasn't going anywhere fast. I got $30K from him, and a behind-load of points.
With almost 2,000 BP in that stable, this means I can acquire a $5 horse at auction and do yet another breed. Rotciv is quickly becoming my homebred barn. 4 of the current runners in that barn are homebreds, plus Black Tie Senor is in there. Means that barn is young. And Honey Bunny is going to sit there for a year until she can be bred without penalty.
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| 39 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Apr 15, 2002, 20:46
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HHHHHHHHMMMMMMMMMM............
All Deputy Minister 2 year olds were purchased for 1,000 BP's each. Good grief. But there is one three year old left . . . hhmmmm. I think I'm going to do it.
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